Chance of an Isolated Stronger Storm Today, Rain Chance Thru Saturday

"Banana River Storm along the Eastern Shores - Cape Canaveral, Florida"

TODAY: Some minor differences from the past few days with,  as always, a few hiccups between model guidance both between models and individual runs within any given model (in regard to the short term).

Rather than spending too much time with nit-picking details that likely will never materialize anyway, the only thing that stands out different today from the past two days is that both the NAM (which I rarely rely on any more) and also the short term RAP model runs are showing stronger upward vertical velocities along the east coast from Brevard south to St. Lucie Counties with a bullseye over Central to Southern Brevard county, at least as of 11AM. 

The proverbial " fly in the ointment " is that this occurs too early in the day, and ends up amounting to nothing when otherwise it could indicate the better chance for a  "near severe" (storm) or two. But, given those are rather recent depictions, the blog post includes to highlight that region as 'possible strong storms' for that reason and that reason only. There was a recorded gust of 72 m.p.h. yesterday by the Haulover canal on the north side of  no-man's land Kennedy Space Center just as a side note.. otherwise, gusts were in the 40 mph range with most storms which really isn't all that unusual for a thunderstorm.  

Also in looking outside, it's clear we are once again contending with a con- factor of high thin clouds over north and central Florida from time to time; but for parts of Central it might prove to be irrelevant, since low levels winds will advect heat and instability from the more cloud free skies over Southern Florida, as they blow from the SW-SSW into Central Florida underneath the thin , high canopy. 

In general , a sea breeze will again form but be more 'side-shore' and closer to the coast than the past two days (I suspect),  which would mean the stronger activity might occur further east today .  

COULD BE WORSE. Images below were posted to TWITTER and FACEBOOK showing the storm that generated the EF-4 Rated Tornado the other day in Mississippi. 

Could be some lingering activity beyond 9pm along the east coast from Brevard  and/or  Indian River Counties tonight in the form of light rain as was the case the past 2 evenings. 

"Suspect Area -51" in purple.
Otherwise some storms with the main hazard being lightning 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida today will be located tomorrow across North Central to Central Florida and remain in the area around I-4 tomorrow and perhaps further south on Saturday. Increasing cloudiness and showery activity is possible with some heavy rainfall possible on Saturday  I-4 toward the Beach Line Zone. 

So far, Saturday seems to be the least decent day due to either increased rain chances and/or cloud cover, but quickly improving conditions will manifest on Sunday as the front clears to the south and the atmosphere dries out significantly. Our  few days recently of 75F dew points appears to be coming to an end shortly.

After Saturday, rain chances are zero for quite a few number of days ahead.

Another Active Day Possible - Rain Chances through Saturday

TRICKY Forecast today with guidance varying from showing
a worst case scenario to close to a "No Case" Scenario.
This depiction is closer to the 'worst case' depiction 

TODAY: It was tempting to post the same image as yesterday for today's scenario as it is,  since mid morning dynamics are beginning to mimic yesterday's set up, at least on paper as of the time of this writing. 

Instability is not shown to be quite as strong on the Mesoscale analysis page today, but the LDIS (Local Data Integration System) which runs locally is showing more instability than yesterday...so which is it? Sounding showed a lot of dry air aloft and MESO shows pretty strong downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as a result meaning it could be tough to get any serious storms going, but once one can go, the trend should be set for the rest to follow suite for the potential of small hail and/or strong wind gusts. 

The question is, "Can they even get going?". This post  falls in line with Official Outlets for the most part  though location for strongest activity likely is leaning too far to the east as was the case in the posted image yesterday. 


Being on the coast is a bit misleading as a steady river / sea breeze is blowing from the SSE, yet inland locations show something quite a bit different with light south winds . Guidance is showing winds just above the deck from the SW at around 15 KTS which would keep activity pegged more toward the east, but the KSC sounding did not show this to be the case at all, thus, the strongest activity might be located a bit further inland than what is shown in this image. The higher chance of some stronger activity is due to a number of factors combined with that upper level divergence 'might' increase across the North half of the state later today. The JAX area for better chances of severe per the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was omitted from this post.

BEYOND: As noted previously, every day will be a case by case basis with more thunder possible through Friday,  but probably lowering in strength as a result of more cloud coverage as the frontal boundary eases toward Central Florida and goes quasi-stationary going toward Friday and/or Saturday. 

The front should clear all but the FLorida Keys on Sunday afternoon or so and remain to the south. No big rain chances are then foreseen for nearly a week after this coming weekend,  for the most part.

Isolated Strong Storms Are "Possible" Today after 5PM - 8PM

 

TODAY: Latest morning guidance shows moderate to strong instability continues to reside off the Florida East coast to be advected inland with the east coast sea breeze. Steering above the level of the sea breeze is from the SW-SSW near 10-12 knots toward the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet. If the depth of the sea breeze extends up toward 2000 ft or so, winds at that level (so far) are also from the SW-SSW and therefore hard to be too sure of just exactly how far inland it will work this afternoon,  but suspect it might not make it as far as the Orlando METRO area or if so, perhaps MCO area at best. 

Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold for this time of year per the KSC morning sounding which is a sign of a strong storm signal given other factors are present as well, but guidance indicates some warming will occur as the day progresses. Suspect some showers could go up along the sea breeze as there is more moisture today than yesterday, and one did manage to go up down in Indian River County west of Vero Beach proper along the sea breeze with less moisture present.

There are some other meteorological parameters that are derived from equations that would support strong activity today, but very isolated, such as some pockets of dry air. 

The additive bonus that goes without saying,  but that which models cannot account for at least not very accurately,  is the sea breeze convergence factor coupled with any outflows from even only rainshowers that set up boundaries prior to late day time frame when heating has been maximized and various lake and sea breezes begin to interact in random fashion. 

Those combined with the aforementioned  enhanced low level helicities east of I-95 toward Central Florida and toward the interiors up to the storm base level could give rise to some decent true to life thunderstorm activity given the current situation, unless things change radically between now and then. The down play toward North Central is a thin veil of high level cirrus clouds that are a result of thunderstorms over the panhandle region this morning.

BEYOND: More storms are possible through Friday, but each day will be on the  "Play it as it Comes" . Other days before then could see some strong storms as well; e.g. The NAM model from overnight showed more so tomorrow.  The front and storm system related to the severe weather in parts of the Deep South is expected to make headway through Florida late Saturday.

Below is only a make up of an area the blogger is watching for today for potentially damaging storms most concentrated wise; official outlets have the details though.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    

Chance of Early to Mid Evening Showers and Perhaps Thunder - Increasing Chance on Thursday

Chance of early to mid evening showers and maybe some thunder. Click on images to enlarge.

Spring Break - Cocoa Beach "Warm Streak"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warmest String of 2014 Days Ahead

TODAY THROUGH WEEKEND: Warmer and then yet warmer still with cool mornings and light winds.

A remnant cold frontal boundary is expected to reach North Central to Central Florida late Wednesday. The recent trend has been to reduce the impact this boundary will have on Florida, but whether that trend will continue or not is about the only question mark. The only impact it previously had was to make Thursday a bit cooler but that, in the latest guidance, was going by the wayside. Either way, any change in the latest is rather insignificant.

It is still shown that there 'could' be in increase in cloud cover and perhaps some showers near the East Coast of Central Florida on Thursday, and more specifically parts of the interior of North and North Central Florida due to the remnant boundary laying out with a north/south orientation resulting in some sea breeze convergence showers in that area, but other wise other than perhaps a shower or thunderstorm over South Florida heading toward Saturday or Sunday, winds are expected to remain light with a string of mid to perhaps upper 80Fs to near 90F (interior regions anywhere in Florida by the weekend) as noted in the post last Thursday, little is foreseen at this point until mid-week next week in regard to discernible weather changes in any other regard. At least as it stands now. Whether active weather in that time frame will actually manifest is too far out in time to hold any degree of certainty.  

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Late Today into mid-late Evening

Latest Enhanced Water Vapor Image Shows the Upper Level Low
Lagging well to the west of low level features. Instability over the Loop Current
likely responsible for on going activity there since last night (continues) combined with favorable for strong activity veering winds with height

NOW (8AM): A thin line of showers is working up the east coast affecting Southern Brevard County soon to reach Central and north Brevard. This line is thought by some to be a 'warm front' but closer analysis brings cause to wonder if it is not associated more with the leading edge of deepest mid level moisture working north. I'm  hearing thunder now as I type.

Otherwise, gusting on shore winds along the east coast will veer toward the south by mid-afternoon or so. Perhaps some sprinkles off and on, but cloud cover will be the general rule but for far South Florida as anvil blow off from activity (with frequent lightning) over the Eastern Gulf continues, and has been in progress since mid evening last night with little eastward motion if any.

LATE TODAY: A warm front will form across Central Florida, but how far north it progresses could be debated, at least in regard to the surface front. This might be an issue as rain cooled air from direct rainfall or evaporative cooling over North Florida might give it a hard time progressing much further north than I-4 (if even that). Aloft, the warm front will proceed much further north as a wind shift line and some mid level warmer making for poor lapse rates across the far North but where the best wind fields will exist. 

With poor low level lapse rates, suspect a severe threat in that area is only minimal. The better 'chance' for said 'strong to severe' at time appears will be from near I-4 south to the Indian River County and more - so along the East Coast where winds will remain more backed (and enhanced) due to lack of frictional effects of the land mass. So far, best timing would be from after 6pm through around 11pm or so. Much,  as noted yesterday,  will depend on the timing issues.

OTHERWISE: Surface low to remain near the Florida Big Bend and south of or near Alligator Point much of the day and into tonight. In time, the upper level winds will move in, but by that time the lower to mid level winds profiles will no longer be present having lifted off to the North and North east, and suspect at that point any strong storm threat will be out of the picture (per the latest GFS ). Overall, the biggest threat appears would be strong wind gusts from heavier storms (if any) and perhaps a brief spin up tornado, though would still bear watching the local networks or favored form of media (Weather Radio). Suspect some local TV Channels will switch to "live mode' as or if conditions warrant.

WEEKEND: Much depends on how fast the low pressure areas move out. Suspect the GFS is more correct, and if so, lingering moisture on Sunday morning with broken cloud cover is possible ..but if it clears out even more, all the better with a low in the mid-upper 50Fs , closer to 60F. Continued clearing though on that day and seasonable temperatures once we get the sun in unless the low moves out slower (as implied by the NAM). No rains are foreseen from that time on.

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms "Friday": Not Necessarily "Good"

 ""When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red. And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times?"

TODAY: A few thunderstorms are occurring over portions of South Florida at time and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has lowered the Slight Risk of Severe in that region of yesterday down to a 'See Text" (as suspected might end up being the case), but that might be generous but for later today toward West South Central. Otherwise, a bit breezy along the east coast (especially) with gusts over 30 mph eastern portions as far north as JAX south toward Brevard.  This could be a sign of stronger high pressure than thought, which is throwing the future-casts out of sync.  After some activity over The South, expect the evening to be in and out clouds with slowly fading winds as a warm front develops and lifts north across Central early to mid day tomorrow. Perhaps some isolated showers.

FRIDAY: There is some fairly significant differences in model guidance, both between the various models and consecutive runs within models. Having no access to the ECMWF, but in reading the discussions from those that do, see little benefit at this time at least of knowing one from the other as disparities continue right up through the morning GFS and NAM Runs. The NAM is considerably slower and further south with a surface low, the GFS is a bit further north and just a bit faster.  Between Three Models its like 'this one is just a little to hot, this one a little to cold, and this one..is it correct?" Both are showing a surface low though in the eastern gulf, but placement is spuriously inconsistent at best in regard to where it will be located and when. This holds much bearing on the end result over Florida as upper level features never fully integrate with those at the surface in a manner that would produce 'active weather' but perhaps along I-4 toward I-10 (as of this time), less so toward Dead Central and even less so more from near Lake Okeechobee and south. 

Therefore, at best, this blog post (which is 'most unofficial') is only capturing Generalities and rounding off what appears to be a best-guess.

GFS (Global Forecast System Model) Depiction for the surface features
per noted time

With the above scenario, a warm front will be located 'somewhere' across Central Florida late tomorrow afternoon lifting north toward dark. Rain should be ongoing already at this time toward I 10 and perhaps toward I-4 with some other showers further south possible,  potentially becoming 'thunder' near the warm front. It is expected to lift at least toward I-10 over night (or maybe sooner). Again, timing is everything and since models do not agree, we'll have to wait it out for more runs to be released to get a better grasp on the situation much like an unfolding, 'real to life' news drama.

"GENERAL OVERVIEW FROM WHATEVER MIGHT COME ABOUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD SUNRISE"

LATE FRIDAY/OVERNIGHT: This seems to be the big question mark in the sky right now. Without going into details, since at this point it would be meaningless in the big picture, would suffice it to say: 'remain a bit engaged with the local news outlet (s) of preference beginning late Friday morning'. 

SATURDAY: Surface and mid level low will be slow to move out. That much at least is agreed upon. So far, appears could be a chance of rain ending by mid morning if not sooner toward the east coast, to as late as Saturday afternoon before sunset.

EASTER ISSUES:  Guidance again differs on temperatures Sunday morning at Sunrise. ..from mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, as well as cloud coverage. The low being slow to move out will have wrap around moisture associated with it. Point being, will we even see the Sun Rise this Day?  We might need some Saving Grace in that regard,  but at least so far it doesn't look like the eggs will have to remain in hiding due to rainfall and running dye unless they now make it waterproof. 

BEYOND: Again, the beyond looks fairly benign for nearly a week at least. Hints at some very warm days ahead are being indicated though, which would be normal for the most part. Winter might have already seen it's last gasp the other morning, and if not, maybe on Sunday morning. It definitely appears to be losing breath in any case.

"Good" Chance of Rains on "Friday" (and before)

Confusing Image shows best storm chances Thursday over SW Florida and much of the state on "Good Friday" (especially portions of Central Florida that day)

TODAY: Frontal boundary  from yesterday cleared most of the state as of late morning making for a cool sunrise temperature wise. The boundary now resides near the Florida Straits toward the Keys or rather what remains of it. For the most part, it is quickly being absorbed in the larger synoptic scale higher pressure area well to the north and has lost much of it's identity; but alas, at only 5000 feet above ground the remaining supportive trough is over Central Florida and never will clear out.  That is much more evident than the surface front.  Another system is to approach in the mid-levels later tomorrow and in doing so will begin to buckle the lower level trough northward as a warm-front mainly just above ground level and not to be fully 'realized' at ground level much at all until early Friday as it gets more fully developed and refined nearer to I-10.

TONIGHT: Slight chance of mainly coastal showers along the east coast from Brevard County and south, but mainly focused toward the mid-level trough across Central (Brevard) to Southern Volusia County sometime near or before sunrise (if there is to be any, they will be light for the most part). 

THURSDAY: Showers could occur almost any time tomorrow along the east coast south of I-4 (mainly), closer to the east coast,  but the bigger focus will be toward SW Florida (see above) where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already introduced a "Slight Risk" for severe category like storms where instability will be the greatest coupled with moisture and cold air aloft.  Not so sure about the 'Severe Risk" but it has been called out by SPC so best be forewarned than not at all. Otherwise, outside of that 'general area', showers could occur toward the East coast as noted into Thursday night , with better rain chances as well along a line running from North Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral (mainly along and west of I95 going into the afternoon hours).

FRIDAY: (Image above again). Low pressure in the eastern Gulf (mainly in the mid levels) to approach the state. Just exactly where it will be located and how well it has worked toward the surface is still a bit sketchy (GFS shows it to be mainly a mid-level low), but for now SPC has placed much of the state in a "See Text" zone, implying something noteworthy 'could' occur, if only some stronger thunderstorms or some severe storms but too isolated to be worth a  "Good" Slight Severe storm Risk. 

The focus in regard to big rainfall totals per the GFS has been along the surface to mid-level 'warm front' which should be along to north of I/4 beginning BEFORE sunrise Friday morning, but some strong storms could occur there as well as far north as near JAX. 

It is after the morning toward noontime into early afternoon that appears will be the 'make or break' point in regard to the region further south, which will be solidly in  the 'warm sector' (mainly south of I/4). 

As usual, pre-eminent cloud cover from Gulf Blow Off could hold off instability though so far that has not been shown to be an issue. Chances are always possible that outflow from activity over Northern more regions could establish a pseudo-'cold front' further south toward the Central Dividing Line running from the Tampa bay region toward Brevard County as a result of outflow from rains further north, but playing with falling dominoes and which way they will lean 48 hours in advance is tricky business. A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises.

BEYOND: Non-eventful weather pattern seems to be getting ready to be established or Florida for perhaps a week if not more heading toward MAY (can you believe it?)    So it goes. So far Easter-Weekend is looking fairly seasonal for this time of year with no rain in the forecast outside of some chances earlier on Saturday.

Chance of Strong / Severe Storms Will Exist Today Beginning Late Morning

BLOG INFO ONLY: Refer to official outlets for Updates and Details
Details could change hourly if not on the quarter hour

TODAY: The first of two primary impulses cleared the area by sunrise with some lightning and heavier rains primarily far East Central. The next impulse now is approaching with the actual cold front still way to the west and nearly 24 hours behind.  

NOW: Latest Mesoscale analysis page is showing continued directional shear as opposed to the more unidirectional flow indicated by model guidance of earlier runs which makes for rotating storms though suspect the more unidirectional flow will begin to manifest later today. The Storm Prediction Center does have all of Central Florida in a 'Slight Risk" for Severe meaning that though there are particulars that would warrant or call for severe weather, it's not necessarily so, or that the coverage of 'said activity' does not appear to be of a greater concern though elements of the atmosphere are at play they might   come together just right. As I type the weather radio is going off. We are now in a Tornado Watch until 5pm and it covers the red area already drawn above as far north as the yellow line (to the north of Central Florida) 

LATER TODAY: Activity will work east from the west coast  spreading toward East Central by Noon - 2pm. We might receive more than one storm in any one location (though not necessarily strong or severe). Some areas might receive some good rainfall totals as heavy downpours, hail up to severe size as well (1" or more), are possible. And apparently, the Storm Prediction Center is in agreement that there is too much of a potential for some rotating storms to let it fly without bringing it to our attention. Not all areas by any means will experience severe weather as the cases will remain somewhat isolated (if any do manifest). Severe weather could occur on one end of a town, while the other side of town might experience nothing but rain and some thunder. Conditions could change rapidly as well, so best advised if possible to have local TV channels on or have your handheld APP ready to view.

BEYOND: Rain chances will not end entirely until early Sunday morning, but the severe chances should be over with by early evening (if not much sooner). Temperatures behind the front will not be 'terribly cold' but seasonably quite cool in the mornings especially for those away from the immediate coast for a few mornings. Rain is not on the horizon for a good week as it looks now (at least). 

Is There a Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Overnight Tomorrow?

Other than Increasing Rain Chances Friday Night and Saturday
 "This" Might Be Something To Watch For

TODAY-FRIDAY: Deep moisture increasing from the SE AND the West well aloft currently in play. The cloud cover at the upper levels shown above is emanating well from the west and south just from north of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) South of Hawaii as seen on the Northern Hemispheric water vapor imagery. It's one long continuous trail, so no end in sight in that regard in the interim regarding ample clouds and moisture. 

Meanwhile,  a somewhat complex situation might be setting up over Florida and thereabouts Friday evening into early Saturday as the first of two short wave troughs preceding the next actual cold front for Sunday morning will pass across the state.

FRIDAY LATE: (note this time, just in case) The first is shown run after run by the GFS to occur across the Peninsula (somewhere) between South Central to North Central Florida Friday late evening beginning the west coast. Wind shear profiles and hodographs would indicate rotating storms, but so far no OFFICIAL outlets have even hinted at anything unusual to occur overnight, so to be taken with a big dose of question marks a glass of water, and call the doctor in the morning. 

The clincher in this regard is that beside the directional and speed shear with height, the mid level vertical velocities  especially toward the west side of the state are almost off the charts, therefore..only a heads up for some locally heavy but brief rain, or maybe even some 'rotating storms' but dare we mention those two words combined?..only in a post on a blog I suppose. But take it for what it's worth which might not be much. The GFS is the only one showing this I suppose because the NAM sure isn't..or at least not to the same degree nor timing wise.

SATURDAY: Instability to be greater this day than Friday night which was also showing increasing instability to climb north from South Florida even overnight. Though directional shear appears will be nearly absent, could be enough juice to get the camp fire's burning with 'thunder bolted lightning, very very frightening"  for Saturday beginning late morning through sunset with numerous 'notwithstanding maybes' this far out in time to be certain of all too very much of anything in regard to thunder as opposed to rain.

BEYOND: Front clears prior to Sunrise Sunday..with onshore winds commencing and not cold, but inland lows will be seasonably cool. Noting that high pressure to follow might set up a situation for the next two systems to follow to have their origins from Northern Mexico or South Texas, which could mean some troubling times ahead for  parts of the Deep South going into April. Time will tell if indeed a new pattern is beginning to emerge , and if not, no worse for wear.

Record Cool High Temperatures Today, Showers/Storms Friday/Saturday

TODAY: It's readily apparent that  a cold front has 'cleared the area' as the northerly winds are blowing well pre-sunrise. Suspect that the Brevard County area North might fail to ever see 60F degrees today, esp. (or perhaps) near Cocoa  Beach northward as well as the panhandle region. Inland and further south mostly lower to some mid 60Fs. Northeast breezy conditions could drive a 'wedge of much cooler Atlantic air" into the Cape zone later today further aggravating the situation (with some scrappy lower marine clouds in tow), though sun in wind protected areas will help alleviate any temporary 'discomforts'. This will all be over  though going into Friday. Per the NWS Office in Melbourne, Florida :

CLIMATE  
  
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH TODAY'S FORECAST   
HIGHS (EACH OF WHICH WOULD SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE).  
  
                RECORD   FORECAST  
DAYTONA BEACH..61 (2013)    60  
ORLANDO........68 (2005)    66  
MELBOURNE......64 (2013)    62  
VERO BEACH.....66 (2013)    64 

TONIGHT: Wind will be swinging onshore overnight, as such, the temperatures esp. from Canaveral and South could actually WARM by nearly 5 degrees overnight after midnight toward sunrise into the low to mid-60Fs by late morning with inland temperatures (and those south) even warmer. Moisture on the increase fairly steadily (but gradually) during the day as winds become more toward the SE by Thursday Evening.

FRIDAY: Though it is 'possible' some showers could manifest from near West Palm to Canaveral over night late Thursday night, it is quite a small chance. Winds will continue to veer more southerly Thursday night such that overnight once again more warming is anticipated with Friday dawning nearer to 70F (and higher) from the Cape South, but remaining a bit cooler inland and north. A front is approaching the area for Sunday, but in the interim the GFS has been holding steady on two most notable 'impulses' perfectly timed to affect the state on Friday afternoon first, then another on Saturday afternoon. Thus, a chance of showers and maybe some thunder on Friday afternoon into the evening. The bigger weather it appears will be over the Gulf of Mexico waters south of the Panhandle region. What effect blow off from that activity might have (if that is to be the case) over the state will have to remain suspect in the interim, for if there is too much cloud cover as a result of any potential 'big activity' out over those waters, rain chances might be replaced by merely increased cloud coverage (esp. since instability is not looking too favorable for storm activity on this day but wind fields might counteract that low instability ratio).

SATURDAY: Yet another impulse over the region with widespread potential of showers and thunderstorms. Instability is shown to be notably increased this day with stronger winds aloft remaining, and therefore there might be some stronger than usual storm activity on this day though at this point anything other than isolated pulse severe  or strong seems unlikely, at least as of this early stage of the game.

SUNDAY: Front to cross Central by late morning toward early afternoon. Could be some showers again with this boundary but more likely over South Central and South Florida interior and western regions. Wind quickly swings around to onshore behind the front though; therefore, temperatures like what we will experience today through early Thursday will not be experienced by any stretch of the imagination , remaining in the 60Fs and 70Fs Central and South Florida, and will also be much lighter as well (as opposed to the wind today)

.   

Spring Equinox has Occurred! Showers/Storms Saturday through Tuesday

Preparations For Spring Season in Full Swing at Sunrise Near The Cocoa Beach Pier.
Spring Equinox was at 12:57PM EDT Today.

TODAY Through FRIDAY: Little change today and Friday from yesterday with light winds and patches of clouds from time to time. Warmest nights along the beaches as well as coolest afternoons at the same locations. Inland highs in the upper 70Fs to near 80F, coast closer to mid-upper 70Fs north of Ft. Pierce (within a block or two of the ocean behind the sea breeze).

SATURDAY/Sunday: Wind becoming more south-southwest on Saturday with a significant increase of atmospheric moisture comparatively speaking from today. Instability is not shown to be all very impressive but with cold air aloft and a small chance of an east coast sea breeze at play, could see some rain showers and/or some thunder later Saturday afternoon as well as Sunday with highs due to low level convergence east side of state and south of I-4. Highs in the 80Fs almost all locations even at the coast depending on when the sea breeze kicks in (if it does). A frontal boundary will by laying out across the state 'somewhere' later on Sunday but should be lifted back north on Monday. 

MONDAY: Considerable cloud cover with more moisture. This day looks like it might be more of a light to moderate rain chance 'somewhere' over Central or North Central Florida to accompany the clouds, much like what occurred last week. Low pressure anticipated to form almost directly over the state which will lift to the ENE -NE into Tuesday. Monday night into at least mid-day Tuesday might be a time to watch for strong storms..but looks dicey to be making a call on anything just yet.

  

TUESDAY: Increasing winds aloft , bulk and slight directional shear but poor instability again spells out a situation somewhat like the other day last week when the tornado watch was issued, but like last time, the best winds will be after the low has shifted east of the state and as a result suspect this possibly could end up being another rain only (mostly ) event with some lightning. Front to clear out by early Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: Coolest day for quite some time (again). Dry and pleasant.

BEYOND:   Exactly how far south this next front for Wednesday gets (perhaps only the Florida Straits) will hold a bearing on weather heading toward Friday and/or the weekend in regard to rain chances. Not expecting a big warm up by weekend , but close to normal temperatures are possible. Warmest overnights at the beaches once again.

Chance of Unusually Strong - Severe Storms Monday

Latest View from above the Sky Notes Developing Squallish Like Activities Far to the west 

TODAY: No change in the line of thinking from previous post. Currently a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is pushing across the Panhandle and South Georgia where a few warnings are being issued as a result more than likely of the strong winds aloft, but with little instability at the low levels. 

As a result, thunderstorms with strong wind and rain storm tops  (thunder or not) are curling over toward North Central Florida , and as such should increase over that area later today in several hours, noticeable by early evening before sunset by several hours. Otherwise, warm and gusting SSE winds to near 32 mph in gusts this afternoon, coolest temperatures beach side , but inland highs could get well into the lower 80Fs with a few mid-80Fs possible. Very early springish outside today! 

MONDAY: Line might weaken some overnight, or might not, hard to say. Regardless, the 'region of interest' will focus toward I-4 by sunrise and into Central Florida as far south as a Vero Beach to Sarasota line by mid-late morning. It's worth noting that instability tomorrow, though not all that much, is still shown to be much more than what is over North Florida and south Georgia right now. 

Wind fields over North Central to Central Florida though won't be quite the caliber as what is over South Georgia right now, but will be strong enough for good speed shear  and a little directional shear as well.  Temperatures aloft are expected to warm but still fall within the threshold which would insinuate that strong storms could still occur, possibly even severe briefly and in small, isolated pockets. All it takes is one.  

The region near Dead Central once again is of interest as is often the case at this time of year as that is where the better overlap of instability (south) plus the winds aloft (north) intersect. Wind from the South - South southwest should be able to advect the greater instability over South Florida northward tomorrow after sunrise right into and under the stronger winds aloft beginning around 11AM through 4pm tomorrow.

 Much that occurs tomorrow though will depend on the southward progress of the greatest convergence along the front proper being made evident by the radar image below. 

As noted yesterday, some discrete storm cells might form over Central Florida mid day to afternoon. Those cells in particular though by appearance might look less threatening than a big squally line like feature, could actually pose a greater threat but of much shorter duration. The chance of such storms is not a certainty, only a potential. If they do start to form, the could all start to form at once  , once a particular unknown threshold is reached in the atmosphere. But if that threshold is never reached, then it stands to reason that no storms will form either.

"Tomorrow" 's  'best  guess' (for a blog post)  for Monday (South of the white line)

MONDAY NIGHT: The front looks like it might pass through Central Florida now after dark, continuing at least a heavy / periodic rain chance with stronger winds, even in rain showers, though that chance 'should theoretically' dwindle by late evening. Rain s should be but over for the most part by Sunrise Tuesday, but if earlier guidance is more correct than the last model run I'm seeing, could continue into mid-late day Tuesday. As noted in the previous post though, indications were that it could be over and done with by early morning Tuesday.

BEYOND: No big cool down behind this frontal system is being seen. Some cooler mornings, most notable inland with easterly winds presuming by Wednesday afternoon with the sea breeze. So far next weekend is looking like it might be very warm with light winds. 

Great Weekend In Store: Possibly Strong Storms Monday

"A Light to All The Nations"

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Pleasant weather in store near and South of I-4 all weekend as temperatures warm for both day and night. Very few clouds on tap for today with winds SE becoming more southerly as the weekend progresses with a weak 'land-breeze' over night tonight making for a cool start but quick warm up Sunday.  

Frontal boundary with associated low pressure systems will be taking shape over the Deep South U.S.A Region over the weekend with the  associated frontal boundary in toe. The best wind profiles throughout 'the column of atmospheric depth' will be over the Panhandle Region later on Sunday into post Midnight, but thermodynamic low level instability appears will be fairly weak in association with those wind. As a result, though some severe storms are possible, the flip side might be a much better chance of hefty rainfall totals. Meanwhile...

MONDAY: Near and South of I4 primarily. There 'could' be a weakening progression of the storms late night through mid-morning Monday as the front presses toward North Central Florida. I'ts all going to come down to timing, and models at this point begin to diverge. Going with the GFS, it looks like from near I-4 and north might be in the quiet zone time frame, with activity picking up by late morning near and south of there. Per the GFS, some prefrontal type individual storms cells could form toward East Central by early-mid-afternoon. Though wind profiles will not be quite to the caliber as they will have been over the Panhandle, thermodynamically speaking, it will be more unstable at low levels with some cold air aloft accompanied by a bit of mid level streak of strong winds primarily north of Vero Beach or the Sebastian Inlet area during peak heating. Therefore, could be some storms from wind gusts as noted in the image at that time, well prior to the main area of rains directly associated with the front - proper toward early evening.

This is showing 'possible severe storms' along the immediate west coast and panhandle as shown between red lines. Possible strong Part of Central Florida and South Florida..with East Central annotation in purple.

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BEYOND: After Monday afternoon's activity toward dark and into the evening , activity should weaken and cloud cover begin to taper off (after dark)... it appears much of the activity could clear out by early Tuesday. There are discussions  on OFFICIAL NWS WEBSITES regarding other models that this blogger does not have access to stating the activity in regard to rain chances could continue well into Tuesday, but discarding that potential based on the consistency of the GFS showing to the contrary for several consecutive model runs.  

Temperatures will only cool a little behind this front, with a rapid swing to onshore winds within 24 hours or so and modifying conditions. No big cool down is the message with near normal temperatures well into the remainder of the week with coolest morning lows away from the coast over the interior areas. Another frontal boundary approaches later toward next weekend, but so far impacts appear will be minimal.

IMAGE: The 1927 Jasper Tornado looks like the cover of Deep Purple's " Stormbringer" album from the 1970s...when inverted "(the negative). Looks a little too coincidental.

 

Next Rain / Storm Chance: Wednesday (?)

TODAY - SUNDAY: Gradual warming trend will be in place with cool mornings. On shore winds could result in some clouds closer toward the coast with warmer overnight lows at the immediate beaches south of The Cape beginning Sunday Morning. Clocks to be dialed forward one hour tonight;  it will getting light outside 'later' according to the clock but also dark later for the same reason from tomorrow to October. 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: These two days appear will be the warmest ones in the next week for the most part (at least so far). A 'short -wave' trough will be ejecting across the North Central Gulf toward Florida as winds locally become more predominantly SW . The coast  might not see a sea breeze one or both days. Otherwise, highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs and maybe some mid 80Fs interior South Florida. With a wimpy sea breeze, the beaches will remain in the lower to mid 70Fs, but warmer south of Ft. Pierce where ocean temperatures are warmer due to the closer proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Short-wave impulse extending to 20,000 ft. with a reflection there (at 500mb) with the trough perhaps slightly negatively tilted which is more favorable for strong storm activity, but jet stream winds will not be as strong as the other day. Regardless, some bulk and directional shear is noted to increase after midnight Tuesday night from West to East Sides mainly south of I-4 (at least as far as the GFS has shown for several model runs). This is the same disturbance that was mentioned a few posts ago, but which was also referenced in the last one as no longer showing up, but that it might show up in later model runs, and that it has done. Originally 'scheduled' for a Tuesday, it's now Wednesday and not nearly the threat as was first presented.

BEYOND: Only subtle ups and down with near normal temperatures and little to no chance of rains. The GFS is hinging at onshore winds making for some eastern side 'cloudy' days, at least mornings, but the GFS does have a tendency to over do such, but either way, no true weather impacts temperature, wind, or rain wise is foreseen for quite sometime outside of the "Wednesday Time Frame".