Becoming Cloudier But Warm, Showers Possible Late (Central) / Storms North

"Fall Streak" On Thursday Morning over Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Wind veering to SSE-South during the day and a bit breezier than the past few days. Cold front and associated rains are readily visible on radar over the Panhandle in the pre-dawn hours with the lightning mainly remaining over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Suspect this will remain to be the case until mid-morning where storms might ease   to inland near Tallahassee east toward JAX and south to Gainesville with time.

Further south into Central/South, remaining mostly dry with increasing clouds with highs through the 70Fs range contingent upon cloud cover. Chance of showers as far south as a Melbourne to South Tampa Bay line heading toward early evening near and after dark with the better chance before dark closer to the west coast north of the Brandon area. 

NOTE: This post is running on the conservative side as what could otherwise be   worded toward the  'favoring storms' convention. For now, not seeing it. Guidance over the past days since the previous post has been fairly consistent to imply 'no storms' today ; but perhaps on Saturday for Central and South except maybe along or North of the I-4.

Conservative Approach On Storm Coverage, The Orange is to show the Low End Chance of Thunder with Green Implying better the chance of showers will low rainfall accumulation (quick in passing)

SATURDAY: Cold front advancing south and east from I-4 by dawn to be across "Dead Central" between 9AM - noon time. Chance of showers with possible thunder to accompany the boundary in the presence of strong wind speed shear but very weak instability and directional shear. As a result, though thunder might accompany the activity, wind could still be a bit of an issue during and after boundary passage. Wouldn't be surprised to see Small Lake Advisories (etc..) and Small Craft Advisories hoisted for winds gusting to 30-35+mph as a result. Highs holding steady to dropping slowly during day light hours in the mid-upper 60Fs (warmer south) and falling slowly toward dark. Wind also quickly subsides after dark as the front by then will have cleared the state.

SUNDAY:Much cooler all day with lows ranging from low-upper 40Fs depending on how far north and inland one is located with a high in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs but very pleasant otherwise. Only 50Fs near and north of I4.

BEYOND: Another low pressure area much further north to cross the east central U.S. One if not two more fronts will rotate around that low as it moves east and north in coming days, bringing in another shot of colder air   toward Tuesday or Wednesday and perhaps another one after that similar to the one on Sunday. In between those reinforcing cool air intrusions we might see a warmer day in the lower 70Fs but mostly we'll be seeing westerly component winds and dryer air with no rain for quite a while.

"Fall Streak" and "Cloud Punch" (bottom right)

GREAT DREAM BEYOND: First few days of February might see something like a repeat performance in regard to the rain chances set up which will mean to watch for the severe weather potential once again, but as alluded to in the previous post, too far in time for anything but itching eyes wanting to see something that might never manifest.  

.

Strong/Near Severe Possible North Friday - Much Cooler Next Week

January Mornings in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Pleasant weather in store as noted and expected. Another 'boundary' to slide by later today with little impact other than a wind shift. Other than that, mostly clear to a few clouds with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons with light wind and very cool ocean air at the beaches especially north of Ft Pierce, more so north of Cape Canaveral.  On this date back in ...see image. The warm temperatures all reflect pre-frontal passage overnight prior to temperature falls and not afternoon highs.

COURTESY NWS, MELBOURNE FL

 

COCOA BEACH AT 4PM IN THE AFTERNOON, 1985

THURSDAY: Cool start to the day with east coast sea breeze more noticeable at the beaches and perhaps some increase in lower clouds especially south half of state. NAM introduces some showers toward the west coast but for now would disregard.

FRIDAY: Winds becoming southerly overnight Thursday and picking up from the S-SSW during the day. Warmer with highs in the mid-70Fs but increasing high clouds as frontal boundary and accompanying broad surface low works along the Gulf Coast toward South Georgia through the day poised toward Coastal North Carolina in the days following. 

Chance of severe storms mainly Panhandle;  though instability is very low,  wind shear and helicity values from surface to 3KM are there along with cold air aloft, so severe or strong storms is possible along what looks like a pre-frontal like boundary . Further south the chance gets less likely due to lack of low level convergence along any formidable boundary , but there is always a remote chance of something popping up after early afternoon through dark but for now would have to be very isolated. Best chance of rain if any would be late afternoon south of I-4 toward 9pm, but so far indications are that it might not be in the form of storms despite the bulk shear in place.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA NORTH OF I-4

SATURDAY: Front to cross Central Florida between 5AM -9AM Saturday morning. Could still be accompanied by thunder , as what appears might be a thin line of precipitation accompanies it but more than likely will end up being rain-showers but can't say never as vertical velocities are there and so is the helicity. Temperatures on Saturday Central will likely hold steady most of the day with clearing late morning hours as cold air advection moves in on WNW winds around 20 mph, probably in the mid-upper 60Fs.

SUNDAY: Much colder than of late with lows in the lower to mid 40Fs in some locations through and into the mid 50Fs to the South. Continued dry with WNW winds all day but not so cold in the afternoon with highs nearing 70Fs South half.

MONDAY: A little warmer and could be  very nice but another front  is on the way and then:  " Bombs away, prepare the 'muffs - n - mitts' for battle! "

TUESDAY: Coldest day possibly since last November with 'might'  be some upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs over a broad expanse and for the second time now a chance parts of Central and all of North will never see 60F with mid 50Fs more common.

WED-THURSDAY: Continued with colder mornings with perhaps yet another boundary sliding through sometime on Wednesday for a cold Thursday start. After Thursday and into Friday though it appears the shenanigans will be over and hopefully that 's it for the Winter~!   (good luck on that one though, but at least in regard for an extended period not that this winter has been all so bad anyway).

BEYOND: Watching Feb 1 -Feb 3. This is too far out in time for model accuracy in any way - shape - or form, but signals are hinting at perhaps the first severe weather outbreak in the Deep South (including parts of Florida) for  2015 . That could be switched off though at any time, but worth eyeing for kicks. 

Chamber of Commerce Weather Through Wednesday - Rain / 'Possible' Storms Friday

"Sunday Morning"

TODAY: New week and new pattern slowly appears to be emerging. A 'string of days' of much more pleasant weather with moderating temperatures and for a change light wind to near calm and mostly sunny skies except late tonight to parts of Tuesday. High pressure across North Florida to cross the state and exit off shore but close enough to allow a near zero pressure gradient meaning light winds. With no influx of cold air on the horizon over night temperatures could fall due to drainage flow, but high clouds might be on the way tonight and early Tuesday which would prevent them from falling as far as they could otherwise. Highs in the lower 70Fs but coastal locales north of Cocoa Beach will be a bit cooler especially on the North side of the Cape due to very cool near shore shelf waters of the Atlantic. Even a few blocks in from the ocean will make a big difference between comfortable too 'who turned up the A/C ?!!' on the beach.

High Clouds Tonight implied by The GFS and seen on Satellite Animation approaching

TUESDAY: After a possible cloudy start from high clouds, they are shown to 'pull out' in the early to mid afternoon; highs in the lower-mid-70Fs otherwise

WEDNESDAY: Light onshore flow will keep the coast again cooler but afternoon highs warming. Latest implication however is that a Southwest flow might develop such that mid-upper 70Fs and even some lower 80Fs south of I-4 are possible (mainly inland) No rain foreseen in this pattern as a weak circulation attempts to form a surface low near the Loop Current in the East Central Gulf of Mexico.

THURSDAY: Increasing high clouds especially later in the day as low moves toward the I-4 though it is very weak at that time. Showers and rain already possible over the panhandle with highs in the 70Fs. Lows mainly in the 50Fs to lower 60Fs if not some mid 60Fs mainly south and near the beaches south of the Cape.

FRIDAY: GFS for three runs now has shown deep layer shear in the wind profiles even down to nearly 2000 ft (though weak at lowest levels) from a line running from Cape Canaveral and north, more so near I-4. GFS shows very low instability though, and the jet stream will probably be running a bit too far north with little divergence which implies storm chances despite the shear would be low, but things could change . It's just to far out in time for now; but given the degree of shear shown though it is not totally out of the question some storms, maybe even strong could occur, but wouldn't hang a hat on that one just yet. Otherwise, Friday appears to be the best chance for rain from early afternoon through dark spreading east and south with time.

NEXT WEEKEND: Return to cooler weather for a string of days. Just how cold ? Too far out in time for model accuracy in regard to how cold and for how long but there might be several days in a row with a westerly surface wind component, something rare so far this winter which would mean very cool overnights and very pleasant afternoons. It is the coastal locations north of Sebastian inlet that would notice this the most in regard to afternoon high temperatures in the absence of onshore flow advecting cold shelf water air onto the beaches whereas inland 'status quo' temperatures would be the general consensus.

"Indecent Exposure" through Thursday?

TODAY - THURSDAY: Temperatures  will largely be contingent upon cloud coverage. The overall impression is very cool afternoons along and north of the I-4 for several days and warmer to 'varying degrees' mainly from a North Brevard County to North Tampa Bay line and south during the afternoons. 

Continuous northerly flow varying from NNW-NNE could advect cool marine air down the east coast toward Canaveral during the afternoons and warmer elsewhere only a few miles away. Cloud coverage looks to be a big issue up through the first half of Friday before a final cold front swings past bringing a deeper overall drying to the atmosphere over the state at all atmospheric levels.

 Inevitably, the 'dankest' air quality will be right on or near the east coast beaches from Brevard County and north, mainly north of Melbourne or Cocoa Beach , though  much of which is contingent upon individual preferences and tolerances. Overall though, it appears we will be running just a bit below normal, though overnight lows aren't all below normal at all, it will be the afternoons that are in question.

FRIDAY: Though there is a chance of light rains  (mainly North half of state) overnight  late Thursday into early Friday, it appears the moisture depth will drop southward during the early part of the day permitting for a better chance of sunshine most areas by the afternoon, but at the same time, cold air advection will be in swing continuing the prospects for cooler (but not cold temperatures). 

We still might see some lower 70Fs as official forecasts are showing, but along the immediate east coast particularly north of Sebastian Inlet or Melbourne Beach this becomes much more speculative considering ocean temperatures are running in the mid 60Fs if not cooler right now north of the buoys near the Jetty at Cape Canaveral 9 which is at 65F this morning).  It's usually colder on the near shore waters north of the Cape toward Daytona and Ormond beach for example by several degrees. Any wind coming off that water accompanied by cloud cover will inevitably be very cool feeling.

BEYOND: Warmer over the weekend with near normal temperatures more assuredly.

GREAT BEYOND: Nothing beyond the norm for days to come, and no 'sig' prospects for a concerted effort to produce large or even mediocre measurable rainfall totals is foreseen for the next 8 Days as of this morning.  Rainfall totals the other day exceeded 2 to even 3" inches in some locations, getting near record values here and there.

Chance of Thunderstorms Remains for Later Today

JANUARY 5, 2014 , Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Brief post as little to be written from previous post (yesterday). Chance of thunderstorms today continues from mainly regions south of I-10 and near and north of Lake Okeechobee, with the signals of a more refined area pointing toward Central Florida as of the mid-morning hour. 

As noted previously, light to moderate instability in the absence of any low level shear with no discernible boundaries and only weak mid-level shear with weak divergence aloft (though it is cold aloft) should lead to some thunderstorms today , mainly inland from the immediate east coast though not exclusively so. Some areas could see up to an inch of rain but many are more likely to see in the .20" - .40" range (less than 1/2 inch), with perhaps some areas receiving more of a lighter but longer 'soaking' and/or a more dense overcast sky later today as opposed to rains.

  

The bigger 'storms' might first initiate toward the West Coast and spread a canopy of high to mid level clouds eastward which would then turn down the convective oven's energy level (lower the CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy due to precedent cloud cover), but some 'voracity (spell check for 'vorticity)' coming across Central seems to be the prime impetus to keep some of the activity rolling along and off shore mainly Central to North Florida. North Florida will see weaker Cape and not sure the vorticity impulses will cross that region quite as fully to warrant a strong storm outcry much of anywhere today other than an isolated  stronger huff and puff here or there.

Rains should end by early evening post-dark most regions but some areas will likely still be seeing at least some drips up through 9pm .

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Same as previous post with near to just above normal temperatures, mainly because of warmer overnight lows.

THURSDAY: The GFS has shifted gears to a low to non-existent storm threat; however, will watch this as that is quite a shift in gears from several previous model runs and not fully sold yet on the lesser rain chances until we see some consistency on what spits out from the GFS in upcoming generations. Two more runs will tell the story though more than likely. OTHERWISE...

INTO FRIDAY: Friday looks to be the 'coldest' morning (40Fs and lower 50Fs mainly) for quite some time to come with a slow warming trend beyond until Sunday. Like last Sunday, as the warmth returns it brings with it deeper moisture and coastal rain chances. 

BEYOND; The other difference now from the previous guidance is an increasing coastal rain chance in the extended. That too will be worth a watching for as the latest is actually indicating measurable rain amounts for a few consecutive days going into early next week. Suspect this all might be coming from an overnight model bias of the 06Z (1AM EST) GFS run ( not using any other model guidance at this time for this blogpost), and as such, it will be interesting to see what emerges later today and tomorrow in subsequent guidance.  

The End.  

Storms Possible Monday/Thursday But Warm Once Again

January 3rd last year (2014) On a Cold Start to the Day 

TODAY: Coastal showers and warmer as the 70F degree isotherm moved in on the East Central coast during the mid-morning hours. Patchy cloudy cover with a few showers continue widely apart and more could occur most any time, possibly more likely at or near sunset but the better chance favors overall to be dry with an uptick in the late night to overnight hours from the Cape and north. Overnight lows tonight much milder through the 60Fs range after highs today in the mid-upper 70Fs with some spotty low 80Fs. Early morning fog could develop inland but chances look very slim.

MONDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms . Guidance insists on some decent winter time CAPE running around 1500-1800 and some bulk shear across Central to North Central Florida. Some thunder could occur as far north is I-10 but instability is further limited there. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold in the mid-levels tomorrow so there is a chance of some good wind gusts in or near storms if we can get any surface based storms well rooted. Lacking will be any discernible low level boundaries and better bulk shear for stronger storms, and the sea breezes this time of year are not conducive to deep convection since ocean temperatures are so cold (except modified well inland). Storms or showers could begin by noon time, though some early morning coastal activity is always possible.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Fairly mundane pattern returns with a lite to moderate NE breeze 24/7. Though coastal showers are possible most any time the chances are very low . It would be presumptuous to attempt to pinpoint exactly where and/or when this far in advance. Temperatures will be mild though with lows ranging through the 60Fs and highs in the lower to mid 70Fs (inland). In general , fairly 'normal' but overnight lows above normal for this time of year.

THURSDAY: Guidance implies a weak surface circulation near the Loop Current west of Tampa could form as more upper level energy ejects eastward off Southern Mexico toward Florida.  Thursday looks (for now) to be a real
 Scooper :  in and out "Wham Bam but no Mayhem" but not without a definite signature of a wash out or nearly so,  for if not rain and elevated thunder with some gusty wind possible then plain rain with clouds later and little drying possible of wet grounds due to cloud cover. 

At least it won't be cold enough to sleet though with 60Fs and lower 70Fs mostly. Winds aloft on Thursday will be stronger as will bulk shear, but now this day has the opposite problem for stronger storms than Monday will have; that is, lack of low level instability even though temperatures aloft will be fairly cold. 

Thus, neither Monday or Thursday has it 'all together' for a more definite "this screams strong to severe storms' calling. Consider this a whisper and gentle nudge instead. "Psst...you never can say never but don't tell".

BEYOND: Friday and so forth will be much cooler to  cold  Friday and breezy with a fairly rapid swing of the winds around the N-NNE to NE by mid-day Saturday. Lows appear to be running in the 40Fs range with highs in the general in the lower to mid 60Fs, but it'll be over in a snap. By Sunday it'll be back to status quo of this season.  No 'bitter icy frigid' cold (those below 45F but dare we say anything below 55F fits that description? )  foreseen in the Global (Crystal Ball) Forecast System (GFS) time range beyond day 8.

Much Warmer w/ East Side Rain Chance Increase Sunday/Monday

"Weekend Approaches"

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Inverted coastal trough close to shore clearly evident this morning by on surface observations. The gusty winds of yesterday became a faded memory quickly within a few hours after midnight and drainage flow down the spine of the state from north to south is attempting to reach even some coastal communities.  Temperatures vary last hour as much as a 71F at Pompano Beach to a 25F at Marianna. Most inland Central Florida spots are running the mid 40Fs gamut while closer to the coast a full 10F degrees warmer. South Florida east side as would most often be expected running the warmest in the mid-upper 60Fs.

When the winds subsided this area (of writing) after midnight the outside air temperature dropped a good 6 degrees within one hour as a result. 

Outside of the much lighter wind today, high and some lower cloud coverage could occur off and on almost anywhere. This will affect the afternoon high temperatures as will the continued penetration of the of high pressure far to the north of Florida in this very progressive weather pattern of recent days. 

The original high pressure will be well northeast of Maine today the one that was descending southward from the Northwest Plains in the previous post) as another one drops in only to exacerbate the current cold situation (especially for the northeast states). 

Over Florida, the coastal trough will work inland over the South Half of the state somewhat creating a bit of   "pseuduo-stationary- cold front' "  (see above) type situation with the 'warmer parts' running generally from Cocoa Beach west to a Southern Tampa Bay line and south. 

Highs today will vary from the lower through mid 60Fs and into the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs south of that boundary (wherever it ends up ), but again, cloud cover will ultimately be yet another deciding contributor to just exactly how warm it will get in any one location (or how cool it will remain). Ultimately, it will be SW Florida that 's in the digs today for warmest temperatures.

On Saturday, the high pressure shown below will shunt the boundary further south, thus, it will be cooler on Saturday than today across Central Florida and even by a few degrees over South Florida. North Florida just remains like always, a part of Southern Georgia and Alabama as opposed to being influenced by peninsular surrounding waters. Temperatures thus today and Saturday will run a few degrees below normal for afternoon highs, but closer to normal for lows.

Meanwhile, a weak area of surface low pressure will form near the south tip of Texas overnight Saturday night as the final high pressure area will have moved offshore the Mid Atlantic states allow SSE winds to develop the boundary shown above into a 'warm front slash (/) coastal trough' (shown below) tracing along the Gulf Coast southern state borders (see below); thus, warming overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning for a potential pleasant sunrise surprise along the immediate Florida east coast Sunday morning with sunrise temperatures  within a few degrees of 70F.

SUNDAY: Much warmer with inland highs ranging from mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F (South) with coolest temperatures at the beaches, especially as anticipating the ocean temperatures will have been lowering over the past several days, with the coast closer to mid-70F (if not lower 70Fs) north of Sebastian Inlet.

Chance of showers near the coast by or before sunrise as well, with patchy cloud cover elsewhere. This 'rain chance' continues all day Sunday for the east coast beaches, but exactly where has been shifting around between and within various model runs, but the area of far North Brevard and north seems to be a consistent area as does SE Florida with Brevard/Indian River Counties being in and out of the chances. Inland areas look to remain rain free though over the weekend other than a passing spritz on the windshield.

MONDAY: This is the bigger day in question in regard to thunder. So far, the latest trend of the GFS runs favor a line running from Vero Beach to Sarasota and south for thunder but much will be contingent at that point in time in where the most available moisture resides. Sufficient instability and cold air aloft will be over all but the the Panhandle and anywhere south of I4 (at least) for thunder. The GFS is now favoring that aforementioned area though per the overnight model runs though earlier runs also including almost anywhere south of I4. In short, wouldn't be surprised to see 'thunderstorms' introduced at some point in time for some locations at a later time in the official forecast. Otherwise...

BEYOND: Another very weak frontal boundary tracks out to sea elongating back westward with the coldest of air on the northern side remaining mainly north of I4 if not I-10 for several days toward the following Thursday or Friday, Beyond that time, there is a big variability in the temperature forecast going into mid-latter January. 

The normal trend is that the period from about now through the first week of February is normally the coldest (on average) time of year for much of Florida (for an extended string of days) with the last week being a real bugaboo some years. Severe weather chances (on the long-time scale (climatic)/synoptic scale level) also begin to increase around that same time up through the month of March.

Otherwise, there remains a slight chance in the shorter term that  there will continue to be a chance of light showers from time to time along the east coast to partially inland , with per chance more clouds than not - - which has been the running theme for this winter season in lieu of cold dry Arctic Air Masses.

 Looks like a fairly long string of days with prevailing light ENE winds at the surface though keeping overnights quite mild and afternoons pleasant but not overly 'warm' either into Thursday once we get beyond Saturday.

Cool Today, Much Colder / Windy Much of Thursday , Storms Monday?

Sunrise Tuesday, December 6, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Frontal boundary has cleared the area obviously will a much cooler start to the day; a secondary one to follow near to just after sunset. 

High pressure building south from the NW Plains states will drop into Old Dixie tonight into tomorrow before traversing slowly east ward across The Deep South states (north of Florida) on Friday and weakening.  

Today mostly sunny with some thinner high clouds with highs north half of state much cooler than that past few days, mainly in the lower-mod 60Fs  - warmer south of a Cocoa Beach - Tampa Bay line with upper 60Fs to 70Fs (far South).

"Epiphany"

TONIGHT: Secondary 'surge' from another trough slicking by and across Central Florida in the 6-8pm time frame will be followed by increasing NW - NNW winds especially toward midnight to sunrise and remaining elevated up through early afternoon before slowly decreasing throughout the remainder of late day and early evening. 

 Lows in the lower 40Fs to upper 30Fs mainly west and north of the Orlando area, with widespread mid-upper 40Fs.   The bigger story MIGHT be the wind for a 12 hour time frame as winds just above 'the deck' around 2000 ft. are forecast to be 30 knots and those winds are accompanied by much colder air in the 2-4000 foot layer above ground, which could mean for strong gusts within an hour or two after sunrise on going through early afternoon. 

Suspect a Lake Wind  advisory will be hoisted for time on Thursday as a result with highs only in the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs north of a Cocoa Beach to Tampa line once again as they shift to N-NNE  by sunrise.  Wind,  especially at the east coast and intracoastals,  in the 18 G 30 mph for a time and 'chilly ' by late morning with temperatures in the lower 50Fs. 

Wind becomes more NNE-NE later in the day and decrease. It might actually 'feel warmer' in many areas toward sunset or even after dark than it will in the middle of the afternoon, especially at the beaches as air mass modification begins. 

There could also be a deck of pancake stratocumulus clouds especially at the beaches but suspect any light rain will remain offshore due to the dry air over the land leading to evaporation of the sparsely thin moist layer above ground.  

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Only slow warm up with highs back into the lower to mid 60Fs and eventually some upper 60Fs by Saturday (warmer South Florida though) but much lighter wind with coastal to inland pancake stratocumulus clouds mainly. Overall though, these days will be warmer than today and Thursday and generally 'pleasant'. A coastal trough will be setting up off shore but suspect if there is to be any rain showers, there they will remain. 

SUNDAY - MONDAY: Bigger warm up with temperatures to or above 'normal' once again, Guidance is up and down on rain showers this day but seems to be in favor for the more so than not and would lean that way. Low pressure , though weak, forms near the Southeast tip of Texas traversing as an open wave along the north Gulf . 

STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY: Better chance of rain though enters into the picture on Monday , and if the GFS trend continues, might need to introduce some thunder south of I-4 (at least) with possibly stronger storms as well. 

Mild to Very Warm the Next 10 Days (at least)

"..they will be as many as the sands of the seashore"

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Warm to 'very' warm with temperatures running 'at to above' normal and muggy with early morning fog or low clouds possible any of those days. Warmest days appears will be Sunday and Monday (Tuesday south of 528) as well, with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs in a few locations away from the immediate sea shore.  Afternoon high temperatures though will largely be dependent upon cloud cover or lack thereof on any given day.

A 'cool' front is forecast to sink south down the peninsula on Tuesday with cloud cover and possible some showers Central late Tuesday afternoon into early evening. Wind almost immediately wings around to northeast to east behind the boundary so lows might never get below the lowers 60Fs along the immediate east coast south of The Cape along the A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral south through the keys Wednesday, Thursday mornings. 

...The Seventh Step

NEW YEAR's EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY: Chances of cloud cover and maybe some sprinkles near the coast as a secondary 'cold plunge' impacts most of the west half of the U.S., especially the Inter-Mountain Regions of the Rockies eastward into the North Central Plains state. Meanwhile, Florida will continue to be 'the hot spot' as herds of wild buffalo and snow geese flock south, man your 'insanity' locals. Temperatures will be crazy cold out west, but Florida will remain 'high' and for the most part, 'dry' as well.

With a frontal passage on Tuesday, the quick wind shift would induce a fairly long lasting 'coastal trough' along the Gulf Stream waters and to the east of them which could induce periods of cloud cover or even some fog mostly during the over nights to early-mid morning time frames once again. no truly dry air is foreseen nor are cold temperatures forecast the entire first week of January (so far at least).

Highs into the 80F's - Strong Storm Chance Dwindling?

 

TODAY: Warm with a southerly wind becoming more SSW-SW during the day, highs in the upper 70Fs into the lower to mid 80Fs mainly south of I-4 with warmest temperatures inland (Central) and all of South Florida away from bodies of water. 

Chances of showers south of I-4 after 3pm through dark, but not thoroughly convinced these will take on the form of thunder though there is a remote chance. Overall, the scenario from the last post is becoming 'less threatening' in regard to severe weather, with some guidance suggesting that many areas might not see rain at all today or tonight. The upper level trough is deepening more toward the west toward Texas rather than further east with the most upper level support for a continued QLCS type  (Quasi-linear Convective System) squall line dampening out as the lower level features outrun that upper level support.

A tornado watch is currently in place across most of the Panhandle this morning as the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK. , suggests that it might need to be extend further east in their 7:AM update.

THIS AFTERNOON: Again, warm this afternoon outside of any shower chances. The cold front on approach is not forecast to reach diagonally across Central Florida until well after midnight. Some guidance suggests that the front itself will go through completely 'dry' other than cloud cover with not a significant drop in temperature behind the boundary, with lows falling behind it only into the lower 60F's south of a line running from Titusville toward Tampa Bay . Though some stronger storms are possible near I-4,   winds from the surface up through the mid-upper levels will become increasingly unidirectional with height in the midst of poor lapse rates and weak surface instability; thus, this appears to  be a cause for a weakening 'squall line' with time with some moderate to heavy rain showers with some lightning aloft) possible as far south as shown. As of this early pre-sunrise hour, the graphic below 'might' even be overly generous on the 'strong storm' side of things

MOST LIGHTNING RESTRICTED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4
(though some glancing strikes are possible a bit further south as well.)

CHRISTMAS EVE: Cloudy with a chance of light showers after 7PM. The better 'rain chance' now appears will occur from after 2:30 pm through 6:pm prior to what will remain of a pre-frontal 'trough' mainly south of I-4. The front itself will still be many hours away. Temperatures running mainly in the lower 70Fs most of the evening with 'gooey' air mass conditions.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Front will have cleared to South Florida by mid-morning in a vastly weakened state with a lingering boundary but barely even clearing the state. Cloud cover to decrease all of North Florida at first into Central but suspect some high clouds might begin to stream back in later in the day from the southwest. Highs mainly in the mi-upper 60Fs toward 70F , warmest South Central and South Florida.

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: No longer looking to even be a hint of 'cold'. Wind to veer more northeast to east northeast remaining light with lows in the lower 60Fs near the coast and a bit cooler inland (colder north Florida). This day might also see cloud cover to partly cloudy skies with showers near the east coast south of Sebastian inlet as the frontal boundary remnants begin to lift back north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday might be a bit cloudy once again but temperatures return to the lower-mid 70Fs , coolest at the coast north of Fort Pierce as sea surface temperatures off Cape Canaveral this morning have been hovering around the 67F -68F mark, and the light onshore flow will affect those nearest the ocean for the next several days. Clearing possible though on Sunday, so as of now, Sunday looks like the nicest day post-Christmas.

BEYOND: Next front not slated until another week from now, in the meantime we'll experience continued somewhat cooler evening and mild afternoons, running close to or a bit above seasonal norms.

"Weeping May Endure for a Night, but Joy Comes in The Morning!"

FIRST FULL DAY OF WINTER 2014-2015

TODAY: The 'Winter Season" Officially began at 6:03PM Sunday Evening. Comfortable temperatures with little fan fare other than persistent bands of light to moderate rain across mainly North to far North Central prevailed under otherwise pleasant temperatures and increasing cloud coverage which we will be under off and on through the first parts of Christmas Day, though not sure South Florida will ever clear.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY: Continued pleasant and 'muggy' conditions as far as December norms run, with temperatures running at to a bit above 'normal'. A cold front will be approaching Central Florida late Wednesday into early Christmas Morning. Otherwise, warm again Tuesday but not as warm as could be due to cloud coverage. Rain chances look to be very low however

WEDNESDAY= CHRISTMAS EVE: Chance of strong to near severe storms appears limited to a line running from Southern Volusia County west toward north side of Tampa Bay and north. Heavier rainfall totals are also in for the making especially closer toward I-10 as a series of 'impulses aloft' pass along the slowly progressing frontal boundary.

FRONT LOCATION AROUND 3AM CHRISTMAS MORNING. STORM CONDITIONS
ARE SHOWN FOR CHRISTMAS EVEN (FURTHER NORTH EARLIER)
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH AFTER 2PM - 10PM

Rain chance then increase for all of Central Florida after 1pm Christmas Eve Day and more say as we head toward the 2:30pm time frame through 10pm. Latest guidance in the rainfall fields are not showing much in rainfall totals however, likely due to poorer low level lapse rates and antecedent cloud coverage despite the favorable winds that otherwise could call for severe weather; hence, no bets are solid on whether strong severe storms could occur  , but the rain chances do look pretty good, if even for only a brief period in any one location. It does look like it could be raining in various locations across almost any where in Central or North Florida during the normal Christmas Eve church services, but exactly where is not possible to determine at this time.

"Weeping May Endure for a Night. but JOY Comes in the Morning"

THURSDAY = CHRISTMAS DAY: The front will be clearing Central Florida around midnight through sunrise Christmas Morning with WNW-NW winds to follow. It does not look now that it will be either as cold as previously thought nor as windy .  Clouds might be slow to clear though, especially running along a line from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota zones, and even so Central should be clearing from north to south through late morning into early afternoon . Otherwise, any showers will be long gone out of Central although a stray one cannot be ruled out up until around the 1pm hour across that region. For the most part though, clouds will be the rule until later in the day except South Florida will they will persist. Christmas Day looks to be mild with temperatures mainly in the 60Fs and closer to the lower-mid 70Fs parts of South Central / South Florida, though again, clouds might be about the only issue for at least part of the day.

BEYOND: Not much now to speak of. Guidance is backing off an any significant weather catastrophes to head toward Florida but balances that off with continued mild temperatures running near to above normal (though not 'hot' by any means). The coldest day over all foreseen now is the Day After Christmas and even that is nothing more than what we've already experience more than once since November.

 

Increase in Rain Chance Late Sunday - Possibly Severe Storms Tuesday Evening

But He replied to them, "When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.' "And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times? "

TONIGHT - SATURDAY: Little change in the current pattern in all regards with periods of some high clouds and cool temperatures The real shift in the pattern commences on Sunday as winds become southerly and a warm up ensues. There has been not a whole lot of change since the previous post nearly   5 days ago (at least), but guidance has jumped to and fro   in regard multiple times since it was made in regard to 'will it rain or not ?' 'if so, "will it be storms or only light rain or drizzle?' or "will it get really cold perhaps colder than it's been yet this season?" , or "will it not get all that cold as it now looks after all"? 

These are all questions that have arisen off and on the past few days   up through this morning   with the final resolve being right  back where we started and that being, 'a chance of some storms possibly strong to severe and perhaps some localized heavy rainfall totals(for this time of year) coming up next week".  
The other question then  was, "but if so, then when ?" .

SUNDAY-MONDAY:    6:03PM  WINTER BEINGS Sunday evening. 

Increasing high clouds working down into the mid levels from west to east during the day. Chance of rains along the west coast perhaps before dark spreading east with time by late night and continuing into most of Monday across Central Florida. There is a chance of some thunder with this activity as well but 'severe' storms (so far) will probably not be an issue with the position of the jet stream as being depicted. But wouldn't fully count it out either. Even if there is only heavier rain storms, could be some pretty strong wind gusts.

TUESDAY: Previously the GFS was showing two fronts going through and one lifting back north, but this is no longer the case. No fronts ever actually go through but do approach North Central Florida before lifting north and setting up for 'Round 2'. Both Monday and Tuesday might be cooler than depicted due to cloud cover and the low sun angle this time of year but otherwise we could be seeing mid-70Fs for temperatures  .     

LATE TUESDAY: Model runs this morning are not easily accessible from either of the two more commonly utilized websites, but if the third option  being seen is correct ( for the second run in a row now) the GFS is implying that there is a chance of Severe Weather Late Tuesday toward late afternoon or early evening up through perhaps as late as near sunrise Wednesday morning or the morning of Christmas Eve. 

If the GFS implications are correct, a Tornado Watch might well be necessary especially all of Tuesday night across all of Central and North Central Florida . At time, it appears there might end up being a  QLCS Squall Line moving through with precedent storm cells forming as well, but time is still early and things could change easily, and if so, we'll be able to whittle down to a more realistic time frame.

CHRISTMAS EVE:  Gradual clearing and breezy after mid-morning Wednesday morning with W-WNW winds gusting over 22 mph in the afternoon and cool with highs in the lower 60Fs falling quickly with the setting sun. After dark, lows falling into the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs and winds dying down through out the night and into Christmas Day.

CHRISTMAS DAY: High pressure following the stormy previous days will be centered very close to over head making for a clear , nearly calm day, with highs in the mid-60Fs , maybe a bit cooler. Winds then swing to more southerly by the next two days as another front approaches. 

Will that front also poise for another potential severe bout? So far, it's up and down , back and forth on the verdict, way too far out in time to say, but wouldn't surprise me one bit. These kinds of events tend to come in families during the winter months, as the period from around the  Dec 38 -January 3rd continues to reflect a wavy, disturbed weather pattern overall.

Pleasant This Week - Big Changes Loom From DEC 21 - 31

Cold Winter Morning Collides with High Tide

TODAY- UPCOMING WEEK: Very pleasant, cool weather continues with   colder mornings as high pressure at the surface is to migrate across Florida early in the week with two possible 'frontal passages' on the way which will go through dry, at least until possibly next weekend. Monday and/or Tuesday could be near "Chamber of Commerce" like days with near calm winds with abundant sunshine, though there are hints we could be in for some periods of Cirrus Cloud decks streaming over head though timing is difficult to nail down (but there does appear that some on Monday which might hold temperatures down a few degrees in the afternoon if so, and not be as stellar as was advertised in previous model runs). Otherwise, The next front appears slated for early Wednesday as a non-event only to reinforce the current conditions we've seen of late.

BEGINNING THE DECEMBER 21 - 25 TIME FRAME: The GFS has hinted for a number of runs the past few days that some big changes could be in-store for the Eastern half of the U.S. in various ways, especially along the Gulf Coast states, Florida and up the eastern seaboard.  It's too early to say for certain what and how things will manifest, but the implication is for one if not two 'potential' near severe-like opportunities very close to Christmas Day as well as 4-6 after Christmas Day as well could be on the Holiday Platter. It's all speculation this far in advance, but such a pattern has occurred in the past in recalling a year when a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued on Christmas Eve and of the same year a Tornado Watch on New Year's Eve for once the pattern sets up, shes' good to go.  We'll just have to see what the winds of change will roll this way.

Otherwise, expect continued cool to very cool mornings with some slight modification in the morning temperatures toward the east coast later in the week but afternoons for the most part will begin to see the steady stream of the 70Fs range from low to mid 70Fs for the most part, with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland toward and into the lower-mid 50Fs (mainly at the east coast beaches) later in the upcoming week.