Chance of Showers and Some Thunder Into Mid-Next Week

Sunset Thursday Evening in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: There does exist a chance of thundershowers later today mainly over the interior-late. Other sparsely spread rain showers are also possible (the dominant mode of rain today). Some light rain or cloud cover could approach the immediate east coast mainly south of I-4 toward Sebastian Inlet late today into early this evening - with perhaps a patch of light rain in tow as well.

TOMORROW -SUNDAY: So far atmospheric moisture appears will be oscillating around between a PWAT (Precipitable water) value of 1.75 - 2.1" up through the first parts of next week. Rain shower and thunder chances remain - but thunder is already becoming harder to come by as we have already crossed the Fall Threshold of Celestial Summer and days grow minutely shorter day by day -regardless, it only takes a fraction to make the shift between thunder to 'mere' rain-shower apart from additional atmospheric help..none of which is foreseen in the short term through the weekend. 

Afternoons this weekend will mostly be in the mid-upper 80Fs with a few interior lower 90Fs possible with partly cloudy skies until late day - though overnight to early morning showers are always possible near mainly the east coast. Best rain chances for daylight hours will be inland except perhaps east coast late in the day.

NEXT WEEK: Front might wiggle worm it's way through in a bit of back-door fashion heading toward Thursday with an immediate onshore wind flow to follow. This would mean an overall temperature fall of a few degrees 24/7 but nothing overly 'astounding' by any means. Just that slight tap down on the thermostat , at least for a few days.

Active Weather Pattern Possibly Into Saturday - Possible Spin - Ups / Waterspouts Being Watched For

Sunrise Squall - North Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY: Unsettled weather pattern to continue, with variations, today through Saturday with some 'twists' to the  local state weather pattern through that time. 

Low pressure, though weak, is located SW of Port Charlotte early this Thursday afternoon. This low is a low level reflection of a broader mid-upper level low pressure zone across the state of Florida. 

In the next 48 hours the surface low though weak is expected to transition into the Western Atlantic somewhere east of Volusia County. In the meantime it is the areas mainly to the east and south of that path that weather could be most unsettled (with a larger focus over South and South Central Florida). 

The Storm Prediction Center is watching for possible brief tornadoes/waterspouts as a result of the overall synoptic (large scale) set-up as a result of this low pressure zone coupled with surface based instability even today, and might hold true tomorrow. 

The areas of interest for 'best chances' of a spin up/ strong wind gust with a storm will shift around with time . As of the latest model runs it appears the areas to watch could shift a bit further north into Friday and even the first part of Saturday to late morning or noon time. 

Areas the Blog is Watching Today and Into Friday - Early Saturday - this areas is not exclusive for today though...still might need to watch as far north as Melbourne, FL later today

 Apart of the 'risk areas'...showers and/or thunderstorms of cloudier than the usual skies will for the most part continue. Winds though at the surface will start to shift as the low pressure begins to move out to the northeast (at least as is forecast now). In doing so, the east coast will 'lose the onshore wind component within the next 36-48 hours as they become more from the south to southwest, and eventually from the west. 

FRIDAY: Again as noted will need to continue to watch what happens with the low pressure at surface and aloft. It is the combination of that factor coupled with instability that will be the deciding factors, but pin[pointing those areas must susceptible to the most active weather is close to impossible to speak of specifically . Using the forecast guidance as a best guess - active weather chances could continue potentially to as late as noon time or so on Saturday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Chance of activity continues if ample moisture remains but the focus will shift further north over time. If ample moisture is no longer available by mid-late Saturday afternoon, things might improve significantly over recent days.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Much drier weather in store with lighter wind. NHC is watching for potential tropical cyclone development east of Florida should things development as guidance implies might be the case; however, Florida would be in the clear already.

No very cool spells are foreseen yet, and possibly rain chances will increase heading toward Thursday .

So Long Summer 2015

Monday Morning in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: As expected per blog post two days ago, the 'cold front' made it's way through Central Florida over night and ended up near the north shores of Lake Okeechobee if not even further south as a mere wind shift line, but further north 'significant drying' occurred from I-4 and north like none we've seen in many many months of yore. Morning lows in the Panhandle were into the lower to mid- 50s and worked to the mid 60Fs further south. 

Across Central today with a slightly more mild temperature at sunrise at some locations the only real difference might be noticed in barely lower dew points from mainly I-4 and north again but right at the beaches the change won't be nearly as discernible. Afternoon highs most areas though will be lower except parts of South Central and South by a few degrees - more so North Florida. Mainly mid-upper 80Fs for the most part - a few 90Fs interior south.

Chance of thunder South Florida today interior and west side with possible showers coming in from MIA to as far north as VRB - slight but close to Nil chance but not totally as far north as Canaveral later today into early evening.

TUESDAY: Boundary now fully washed up might begin to buckle along the east coast as an inverted coastal trough most notable tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Moisture will have fully worked back north as wind becomes more South East to South South east and winds above the surface   almost become more southerly as we approach late Tuesday but more so later this week. Chance of showers still lower but not completely zero either almost any time but mostly before noon along the east coast..more toward the west coast if not in the Gulf itself later Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY; Better chance of showers many areas. Will watch just to see if perhaps some convergence bands of showers begin to form off the North Bahamas along  the "downstream helicity- wind streak factor"  which would impact somewhere between Ft Pierce toward Vero or Sebastian (if not eventually further north); so far guidance doesn't imply it..but rarely does it forecast such small scale potentialities. Colder air aloft with deepening ESE-SE flow could well warrant the chance though ...as showers might be able to work as far north as JAX on Wednesday.

BEYOND: Chances of showers almost any time as noted in previous post. No more cold fronts for a while. On the other hand..with prolonged deeper easterly flow..it appears that Thunderstorm Season 2015 is over, at least for the east coast in regard to sea breeze convergence related type activities. for by the time any potential set up related to sea breeze convergence storms arrives..we will be well into later September with shorter days and lower instability during the days..meaning for the most part -other than maybe a few days here or there - summer is over...per the celestial calendar fall is one week away after all.

Red Sky At Night , Sailor Delight - so long storms

Rare Chance of Early September Severe Storms Today

Rare Early September Sky Could Be Prelude to Rare Storms This Afternoon - Possibly

TODAY: Odd to be speaking of 'bulk shear in the mid-upper levels' this time of year but indeed such is the case today. Usually such terminology is reserved over Florida for mid-Winter through mid-Spring (in relation to a storm potential) - that combined with anticipated Moderate Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) which is small to totally absent in the winter months will both co-exist today in a very moist atmosphere. Additionally, there is the smallest of chances a side shore sea breeze component could manifest from Brevard County and south , perhaps even a bit further north which in the presence of warm ocean temperatures could add a 'bang for the buck' near the east coast - or even off shore for boating interests. 

The net effect is for a chance of 'severe storms' today with wind gusts in excess of 58 mph - apart from said activity gusty winds  could otherwise occur even in fast moving rain showers or near them. 

On the other hand, high level cloudiness and 'not all that cold aloft ' temperatures at 500mb preclude a better certainty of 'severe' type activity. There is a chance of earlier storms going up west side resulting in dense cloud cover across the Interior and East coast which put the squash on severe weather though the RAP and NAM guidance models are both showing some decent vertical velocities (VVs) near the east coast from Brevard south through Indian river counties after 2-3pm.  

 Areas south of Brevard are not under the Bulk Shear components though might have better instability than further north. The 'strong-severe' chance/threat should be working south and east with time into the mid-afternoon. This does not 'guarantee' severe storms everywhere, though at time it does appear that some areas might well experience at least a stronger than the norm storm today.

 A few showers might 'pop' prior to the best chance of heavier rainfall as well south of I-4 into South Florida almost any time from late morning on. Rainfall totals might not be all that large due to faster storm motions.

Though not in the 'red lines' for 'possible severe'..watching blue areas too (blog purposes only)

SUNDAY: Boundary of front to slide into Central or South Central during the day but the upper level kicker-energy will have passed well east of the state and out to sea. There might still be cloud cover to hold down highs into the 80Fs but continued humid as usual. Best chance for storms might be Eastern Portions of South Central and South Florida though a few  showers possible south of I-4 at almost any time.

MONDAY-BEYOND: Onshore flow slowly develops into Tuesday as noted yesterday. Moisture continues. Suspect temperatures along the east coast might vary by less than 10 degrees for several days as ocean temperatures are still in the lower 80Fs for the most part and as a result, 24 hour temperature variations will be minimal.   Shower chances continue ..for almost anytime east coast with thunder more likely interior and western portions of the state.

Higher Likelihood of Rain/Storms Saturday Many Areas - Not a Beach Day

September 11, 2014 Cape Canaveral

FUTURE-CAST: Shifting 'sands' occurring as a frontal boundary approaches Florida over the weekend. The wind shift line associated with this front appears will make it as far south as Lake Okeechobee by Monday but the moisture associated with the boundary will remain as far north as around I-4 (in general) underneath the 700mb trough which remains north of Central Florida. 

The boundary determined by the wind shift at the surface (ground level) is then to wash out and lift back north going into Tuesday with very little change in temperatures at all and  continued high humidity south of I-4 or a bit north of there. 

This boundary passage though might well make the true 'beginning of the end' of sea breeze convergence type thunderstorm activities for 2015...outside of a few days here and there spread out across the next two weeks (at least for Central and North Florida).

TODAY: Chance of showers and some thunder mainly south of or near SR 528 east side of state and south. The greatest concentration might well be St. Lucie County and South where east coast sea breeze has the greatest inland penetration accompanied by the Lake Okeechobee Shadow affects. 

Chance of showers or even thunder perhaps as far north as Cocoa Beach late today or even early evening - perhaps as late as was the case last night for Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/ Merritt Island zones (surprisingly)  after 10PM last night.

General Guess-Cast for Today (South Central) and Saturday (North half of State)

SATURDAY: Disturbances associated with upper level trough and the surface front to ride mainly over the North Half of the state. There is close agreement in guidance that activity will propagate and move along from west to east beginning early to mid morning from west coast to east coast. The affects of such can already be seen further to the west over the Northern Gulf as of 2pm today. Saturday looks to mostly a cloudy day (except maybe before noon for interior and east coast)..with increasing rain chances, even storms, some possibly on the stronger side.

SUNDAY: With the disturbances having passed, Sunday should be a much more dry day, though not sure about cloud coverage. Lower temperatures over Central/South (mainly in the afternoons) would be a function of cloud coverage and not of cooler air having filtered this far south (which will not be the case along I-10 where it will end up being both drier and cooler). Such affects will be short-lived in any regard, however, as the boundary is absorbed by high pressure passing west to east north of Florida and the remains lift north potetnially as a bit of an inverted trough along the Florida east coast. going into Monday and Tuesday.

FUTURE: Might watch for a 'min-rain event" along the Florida east Coast, especially from Vero Beach and South mid-late week next week or potentially as far north as Daytona. Too soon to say if even that will occur, but the set up is staring to look like there is a potential for one over a 2-3 day period somewhere along the east coast with prevailing and deepening easterly flow and cooler air aloft at times.

Widespread Showers -Storms Possible Today

Cocoa Beach Pier Monday , September 7th

TODAY: Low pressure circulation which two - three days ago was located southwest of Port Charlotte continues to lift north to the Panhandle as shown in the next image. Meanwhile, upper level temperatures are warming a bit with 500mb and 700mb temps forecast to be around -5.5 to -6C/ and 10C respectively. These temperatures are alone not conducive for stronger storms apart from upper level energy and/or stronger low level deep convergence along defined boundaries which will be a bit hard to come by today.  

The best convergence should occur along the east coast north of West Palm Beach on the east side aided by low level helicities along the 'somewhat side shore component' to the east coast sea breeze being affected by the synoptic scale flow as a result of the broader cyclonic circulation over the state as evidenced in the small scale by the low pressure area shown

Otherwise, showers and or thunder could conceivably occur almost anywhere, but the east side will probably hold off until later in the day as activity moves from southwest to northeast in general from the west side and sets off foreword moving outflows ahead of the west coast sea-breeze in tango with the synoptic scale SW Flow from 2000ft up through the 18,000 ft large scale flow in a very moist environment.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The South west flow will begin to relax a bit, but there is also a chance some drier air will be slotted in with it across a portion of the state. As a result, at this point it appear activity will not be nearly as prevalent on one or both days. A cold front is forecast to reach near the area around the Florida/Georgia border before being absorbed ..thus not directly impacting the majority if not all of the state, but more directly the area north of I-4 where storm coverage might be greatest and/or strength.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: The GFS implies colder air aloft and better chance of sea breeze convergence toward the East half of the state with activity to exit the east coast.  The NAM is not showing the colder air aloft though. This is apart from any other unforeseen circumstances (variables yet foreseen) - that is the general picture being painted at this point this morning. If there is colder air, storms could become strong to pulse severe at time toward the end of this week.

BEYOND: Continued chances of showers/thunderstorms extends will into next week - though the amount of coverage and locations is well too far beyond to bother attempting to forecast such.  Temperatures are expected to remain warm though with no sign of cooler air as of yet to overcome the state.

Potential For a Powerful Lightning Storm or Two Later Today East Side

Morning Tide - Sunrise Time

TODAY: Pattern shift began last night as severe warned (and verified) storms pelted NE Florida early evening. Outflow boundary and accompanying rain made it to part of Central Florida, even some lightning inland late evening. The boundary is likely laying around over South Central still in some form even now and might work a bit north into early afternoon.

Meanwhile, light westerly to northwesterly wind at the low levels won't be strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze as mid-upper levels winds increase to 15 -20 kts. This should be enough to at least allow rains to reach the beaches in some form..and depending on how quickly the west coast sea breeze works east could result in fairly strong convergence and upward vertical velocities (VVs) mainly from Eastern Osceola/Brevard, Seminole , and perhaps most of Volusia County or at least south half of it later today.

 The only apparent crimp in the style is early day activity already in progress at 10AM with lightning. Outflow from this activity could disturb the diurnal cycle contingent upon how long it lasts and why it is happening which is not apparent readily.

Morning KSC sounding does not show cold air aloft, but does show a bit of an inverted V at the lower levels and some pockets of dry air in the mid levels which could result in strong gusty winds due to rapid evaporative cooling through the low levels..with very swirly wind gusts in and near downpours.

TUESDAY: This day looks like it could be a variation of today so won't go into details.

BEYOND. Trough along the east coast once again as we rotate around the summer cyclic pattern of 2015 of storms toward the east side late day. Coverage will depend on moisture content of the atmosphere though which is hard to say at this time .  Chance we might see stronger storms in the Thursday / Friday time frame. 

Additional long range model guidance/forecast gets difficult with the overnight GFS implying remnants of Old 'Danny' Boy perhaps getting involved with the Atlantic Ridge axis and southerly flow toward the weekend or beginning of next week (?)..and wrapping around it toward the peninsula. Will watch to see if we hear TV weather stations implying that potential in days ahead. If so, could really need to UP the rain chances in the extended outlooks for many areas.

Solo Flight

Big Lightning Threat - Large Rainfall Totals Inland Possible

Early Morning Cloud Line along the Banana River - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY - TOMORROW: These two days look similar as of morning model guidance so will clump them together. Chance of heavy downpours today away from the coasts with a few storms exhibiting frequent lightning possible. KSC sounding came in with very light wind up through the lower column, as such, wouldn't be surprised to hear of a funnel cloud sighting or two today - especially early on if something gets going near an area lake wind or sea breeze boundary. Best chances of heavier storms appears will be interior Central and South Central. Tomorrow - could be similar in nature, but exactly where the 'better chances' will be ..will have to wait until that time comes.

BEYOND: Continued mostly interior storms, with coastal or near shore water showers or even some thunder possible almost any morning (there was a lightning this morning off the Cape observed with a tall lone shower). The better chances of storms will be later in the day though over the interior well away from the immediate beach-side.

Upper level steering should be becoming more east to west going into Saturday and/or Sunday especially ..which would mark a pattern change to favor more of the west half of the state.

Tropical Storm Danny has been 'christened' for the record books. Last night's GFS forecast model brought the storm right into Florida..the following run left it well out at sea way before even getting close. Too soon to say is the verdict for now.

Broader Coverage / Iso-Very-Strong Possible Interior Central/South Central

Start of the Weekend - Top of the Morning

TODAY: Slight difference from yesterday before full pattern swing sets up for a solid week (which will result in sig. lowering of rain chances mainly east of I-95); but for today, colder air aloft than past days such as all of last week are in place. 

Steering wind is from the WSW-ENE from 7,000 feet and above averaging about 11 kts. Though some storms could initiate along the east coast sea breeze almost anywhere, they will first move west along that boundary due to less vertical development but might 'cling' east for a time. Latest Mesoscale analysis page shows some stronger  "Craven-Brooks severe" parameters in place over East Central Florida at this time which should advect well inland if they even last and be in place for sea breeze convergence boundaries later today mainly Central Osceola County into Polk, Southern Lake , West half of Orange and south into South Central Florida as well, or maybe just a bit east of the spine of the state as well.

 Some storm debris or if possible even a renegade thunder storm might make it back east toward the coast mainly near the Far North Brevard to Volusia County regions if conditions set up just right, but suspect the stronger storms will be further south and inland due to cloud cover still over a part of Central and North Central Florida at 11AM.

Note: If east coast sea breeze is slower to move inland by some fluke, true thunder with Cloud to Ground lightning could conceivably' reach the east coast north of Melbourne, but would be very unlikely.. Heavy downpours and frequent lighting seems to be the best bet today, if not some 'peas or B.B. hail". 

 Lingering rainfall over parts of Central or East Central might continue after the gang bang is finished and the strangling storm debris keepson keepin' on toward dark.

BEYOND: Deep south  - south east flow to focus all the thunder activities inland and west coast most if not all of next week and toward the weekend. This does not necessarily preclude areas along the immediate coast from all rainfall chances though. 

Guidance does show varying degrees of deep layer moisture from 1.7 - 2.2" PWAT (precipitable water) during this time frame, sometimes even at the coast. What that could mean is that regions at the beaches mainly south of I-4 (mainly Brevard and South) could experience pre-sunrise to late morning toward noon time showers before the sea breeze sets up in full swing on any of these days.

In the Far Beyond the GFS hints at perhaps a weak inverted trough - tropical wave-like feature might swing through in the next two weeks..if not two of them which could bump up rain chances all areas. It's starting to look much more like early fallish-tropical season now more than summer right now...that is unless the later runs of the GFS make yet another pattern shift before the end of August...perhaps toward the  26th might be possible

Increasing Storm/Rain Chances Today - Saturday

TODAY: Pattern shift which began yesterday will be in 'full force' in varying degrees and ways in sensible weather mainly today - Saturday. Though it is difficult at time to tell how cloud cover earlier in the day might affect the outcome for the afternoons in future days - today through perhaps Friday seem to be the best storm chance days, particularly Thursday (?) (GFS guidance).

Westerly steering flow at all levels varies for 8 -13 kts this morning and shouldn't change much during the day. The west coast sea breeze is already evident on visible satellite imagery and is to trounce eastward during the heating of the day to set off rain showers and some thunder 'here-n-there', but the best chance of 'pronounced thunder' will be near to east of I-95 up and down the east coast mainly north of West Palm or Ft. Pierce after 4:30pm toward early evening.

THURSDAY: Similar scenario at play looks to be the rule but perhaps with better state wide coverage. Colder air aloft comes into play on Thursday and suspect if that is to be the case (per the GFS model, 'Global Forecast System') then either stronger storms will be the rule or earlier onset or a combination of both. This might be the best day for stronger storms before the overall atmosphere gets to mixed in. 

FRIDAY: Also cold air aloft this day, might be an earlier on set but again, hard to say for certain.

On all days with a 'later onset' (after 3pm east side), the east coast sea breeze should be able to form since the winds at the lower levels though westerly (toward the east) are not forecast to be strong enough to offset the sea breeze though it will make little inland progress. With colder air aloft at play though, stronger activity if it does not ignite to rapidly could also occur most anywhere.

SATURDAY: More of the same.

SUNDAY: Looks like a pattern shift toward south to south south east flow which might leave the immediate east coast 'high and dry' outside of mid-late morning activities.

Lower Rain Chance Today to Zero Some Areas - Possibly Strong South Florida Mainly

Storm Moves Off Shore of Cocoa Beach Area Early Saturday Afternoon

TODAY: Big change today with much drier conditions many areas. A backdoor 'front' is progressing southward with drier air behind it. This 'boundary' should hold identity as far south as perhaps the Vero Beach area and arc back north a bit late today along the West Coast sea breeze front to along/near Route 27 in general. Otherwise, upper level winds shift from North (north half of state) to a bit more NW south portions as Jet Stream winds oddly round out from the NE at over 40knts.

Combination of drier air and strong upper level winds (though temps aloft are warm) could still result in a strong storm or two along 27 from Ocala and south but more likely south of the boundary over South Central and/or South Florida late today .  North of even I-4 is sketchy in the strong storm category.

The potential for this to occur was noted about 3 blog posts ago, that though a front might not make it completely through it appeared a mid level trough would. Only difference now is that the surface boundary did make it further south than foreseen.

MONDAY: Continued more of the same with rain chances more likely interior South Florida

TUESDAY: The Sonoran Heat Ridge which has been dictating much of the weather this summer  will again begin to retreat west , eroding on its eastern flanks across Florida and set up for an upper level trough digging down the east coast mainly east of the Mississippi if not further east setting up for SW Flow aloft once again. This becomes especially true by Wednesday and Thursday and firmly in place Friday through the upcoming weekend.

BULBOUS LOWERING CLOUD APPEARED TO HAVE ROTATION ON GROUND EVEN SO SLIGHTLY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON - SEQUENCE PHOTOS BELOW

BACK EDGE OF LARGER CLOUD AREA

AREA MOVING OUT TO SEA

Early Storms Already In Progress Mid-Morning

TODAY: Quick Post. As noted yesterday, today would take on 'the flavor' of yesterday and sure enough early day activity is in full swing with some stronger storms possible first along the west coast due to winds gusts (with some frequent lightning) working south into early-mid afternoon. This 'area' will also release the chance of some stronger storms across South Central/South possibly near the Big Lake zone along the Lake Shadow as day time heating will have had much more time to accumulate by the time the 'instigating impulse' reaches that area.

Not everyone will see rain today, worth nothing -- the East Coast especially north of Vero Beach is 'suspect' even early on today. Chances are there will be a 'shift in character' to the current activity by noon to 1pm but by then the chance of East Coast rains north of Vero will have already passed. Regardless, could still see some stronger wind gusts with rains. Will also watch for re-development for the zone of North Brevard and north toward Volusia/I-4 later this afternoon if substantial clearing can occur after the earlier festivities.

SUNDAY: Watching for stronger storms North Central / Central (interiors). The NAM is fairly consistent with strong VVs (vertical Velocities) in the presence of generous by August standards EHI (Cape/Helicity Indexes); however, it has been bouncing around with the GFS bickering for anything from strong storms to very little at all. Therefore, it is still a bit uncertain at this point in regard to the strong storm chances unless the NAM keeps squawking out some of its bizarre fore- sights

 

LATER SUNDAY  or INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY: Could see a break in the action until the next front approaches. After that point it starts to take on semblances of last weeks rain-daze events minus all the moisture. Either way, a return to more storms by mid-late week next week as well.

Chance of Marginal Severe Panhandle & Perhaps Far East North/Central

Heavy Thunderstorm Moves Off Shore at Cocoa Beach Pier , Thursday 

TODAY: As noted yesterday, today will be a variation of yesterday and so far that seems to be the case - the main likeness to yesterday will be not in who  receives what kind of rain as much as those that had a very low chance of rain yesterday - so too today. 

Otherwise, some new 'driving factors' are at play in the wind fields. Though moisture is bit tad sparser over Central the ribbon of it remains nearly the same running about 30 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Port St. John on the east coast. It appeared even before Sunrise that there was a boundary there and it shows up even better now at sunrise. Steering today could become more NW if any STRONG / SEVERE STORM latches on to the East Coast Sea breeze particularly from near Ormond Beach south toward Southern Volusia. Thus, one thing that 'might' need to be considered is a 'right mover down the intracoastal later today IF the east coast sea-breeze gains momentum up-coast from a strongly southerly component much like it did yesterday over parts of Eastern Brevard County. 

Thus, the risk for strong storms along the east coast south of I-4 is conditional on the east coast sea breeze and any storm forming or even 'rolling' into this area from  a northerly direction OR acquiring a propagating principle down stream along the sea breeze front. 

Latest Mesoscale Analysis page is hitting on  a supercell component or rotating type thunderstorm parameter being present along a line from near Titusville to North Tampa Bay and north...however, with the additional sea breeze front which appears could form but stay perhaps east of I-95 today per KSC Sounding from this morning...could translate that 'supercell' principle further south into where moisture still resides to perhaps near South Melbourne Beach along the east coast if not Sebastian Inlet.

There is a BIG IF though. The forecast for this particular parameter is for it to diminish going into the afternoon, which would leave the chance of nothing more that a rouge thunderstorm in the equation along the Florida east Coast south of Ormond Beach.

BEYOND: Will watch for a chance of stronger storms again perhaps Saturday and/or Sunday but moisture availability and the level of the atmosphere where any will be useful is becoming sketchy. 

So far, the better chance of showers/thunder is being shown by the GFS to be along the east coast and Central Peninsula though we might start to see considerable overnight to early A.M activity along the Nature Coast (Big Bend area) by tomorrow or Sunday morning in association with an approaching frontal boundary.

Strange UFO-ic Sighting over Canaveral Yesterday