Chance of 'Strong to Marginally Severe" Storms (Mainly South of I-4)

Towering "Morning Cloud" Hovers Over the Coast - Friday Morning

TODAY Tropical Upper level Tropospheric Trough  (TUTT) Low is slowly shifting east to west 'well aloft' around 30,000 feet accompanied by a tongue of dry air in the mid-levels.  Remarkable PWAT on the KSC sounding this morning down to a rather 'astonishing' 1.09" which is quite low for July. However, if guidance has any credence this measurement was taken at the utterly driest point in time almost possible of the day in regard to the placement of the TUTT low. Some recovery should be going on during the course of the day even as I right with the 'anticipation' we might see a recovery back to not quite July 'normals' in some locations by late afternoon. Will watch for activity across Southeast Florida early on send outflows and mergers both north and west during early/mid afternoon prior to sea breezes setting up and moving inland so that the better clashing of boundaries would occur over parts of Central Florida.

With less early day activities..the peak of activity and the affect of the dry air aloft combined with colder upper level temperatures 'might' result in some strong/marginally severe storms come late afternoon especially interior parts of SW Florida northward toward Polk/Osceola/Okeechobee Counties possible into southern Lake County and even toward Orange/Seminole; but the better chances will be Central Osceola/Polk. The latest NAM is hitting hard on eastern Osceola oddly. There is also a chance some showers might be able to work into the Cape area off the ocean in association with 'said set up' though chance is quite low and remote.  One thing that would preclude any strong or even severe storms today is that guidance implies the pocket of cold air aloft might start to fill in with warmer air (aloft) as the day progresses which would put the breaks of strong storms as well as storm coverage altogether.

Sum total, today is an 'odd ball day at the park' in regard to the summer routine.

MONDAY:  Low will have moved west of the state and lifted north a bit. This will put a brake temporarily on the pattern that has been in place since the 3rd of July even (!) of easterly flow favoring the west and central portions (mostly).. namely though, leaving out the Barrier Islands of Brevard south toward the immediate beaches near Vero of the big rainfall scores. 

Chance of showers mainly but thunder possible 'sometime ' from mid-morning to as late as early to mid-afternoon along the east coast south of I-4 if the GFS holds correct (though other guidance has not been showing this chance will ride with it). In image above  activity now near the western Bahamas might be what will work into East Central sometime tomorrow. The upper low appears to be moving a bit slower than earlier models were showing and should that motion continue timing and placement both of this low is what might end up being the big factor tomorrow in regard to the better rain chance location as well as when that will be.


BEYOND:  Low confidence forecast but appears a  return to low coverage of activity, mainly interior with a few spurious times of coastal early morning showers of unknown days since timing of moisture shots remains nearly impossible to forecast beyond a day or two.

GFS implies a significant tropical wave to approach Florida the end of next weekend toward Monday..that will have to be watched as again, same issue applies. 

"Interior" Iso-Strong to Pulse Severe Storm(s) Possible after 5PM

SUNDAY MORNING Living Up to It's Name - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday overall so not much need to go into details as outlined in previous post.  

Late morning Cape Sounding shows 700mb/500mb temps running around 9C/-7.5C respectively with an extensive dry layer in the mid-levels. 

This drier layer should be able to fill in a bit after daytime heating sets the sea-breeze wheels in motion heading for a moisture convergence clash later today in the presence of moderate surface based instability.

 Latest satellite animation shows an 'apparent region' which might be considered an overall 'favorable zone' as shown based on 'eye ball extrapolation' (only).

  Steering today is a tad bit stronger from west to east north of Sebastian Inlet than previous days; however, given the drier air in mid levels and seeing how there iso other triggers aloft apart from localized mesoscale boundaries ,  storms could rapidly shoot up and just as quickly wane sending outflow boundaries in every which-way making for the firing up of another storm up to 60 miles from its parent source region. Therefore, exactly 'where any one storm will go' is nearly impossible to say. Central to East Central seems to be the favored spot by model consensus with a secondary area across SW Florida (not depicted)  

MONDAY: This day guidance shows a significant decrease of any activity but won't buy into it for now so will ride with persistence of last two days though steering might come closer to non-existent as surface to mid level Atlantic ridge axis lifts to Central Florida, meaning, any chances for the coast to see any rainfall at all might be completely out.

TUESDAY: GFS continues to show a rather random patch of moisture lifting north slowly around the ridge from   South Florida bringing increased rain chances for all regions south of I-4. Time will tell, and chances are it's over done but continuing to watch as GFS has been consistent in this regard. Coasts could use some rain south of DAB.

BEYOND: Ridge axis remains across Central-North Central with very light to non-existent steering winds and colder air aloft if the GFS guidance holds any credibility. Continued isolated activity late day...with iso-strong always a possibility. Other wise, remaining quite warm inland but with sea breezes initiating sooner in the day for less warm than of late in the areas within 5-10 miles of the coasts.

Chance of Isolated Showers - Early Afternoon / Strong Storm - Early Evening

"Warm Start to the Weekend - Cocoa Beach"

TODAY: Very little change from past few days over all. Temperature aloft at 500mb is a bit cold though but with continued warm temperatures surface into the mid levels with 'less than average' overall moisture content through the column. 

Satellite interpretation appears to hint at three potential boundaries laying dormant at time as will be depicted in the image below by the white dashed lines, and have not determined if those perhaps won't mix out during late morning into early afternoon heating. 

Regardless, things appear to be on track for another day similar to yesterday. The 4KM NAM, latest RAP, and HRRR are all showing 'scattered showers and storms' beginning as soon as late morning but suspect they might be over-down.  The 4KM NAM shows several respectable outflow boundaries from mid-afternoon activity all playing havoc by late afternoon -early evening as to where a strong storm would form, but the HRRR 'implies' it would be most likely 'somewhere Central / South Central ".

Given that there might be some boundaries across the Central and Southern Portions of the state (see below), sea breeze/lake breezes will form and see no strong reason why that wouldn't be the case given the trend of the past 2-3 days (the past two days have both seen a severe thunderstorm warning 'somewhere across the state') would ride with persistence for yet again a chance of a strong storm with small hail and/or winds gusting to 45 mph or more. 

Again though, most areas will not see rain today - but where it does rain it could be briefly  heavy. The biggest hazard as usual would be frequent to excessive lightning, mainly toward  6pm over the interior.

Image below shows storm near Lake 'Toho" which produced a highly visible funnel cloud on Friday.)

White dashed lines show possible boundaries which 'might' aid to ignite showers earlier today

SUNDAY-MONDAY: For now without much change being indicated until maybe late Monday or Monday night would go with persistence and call for 'similar in nature' type activity next two days.

TUESDAY: Indications the surface ridge across mainly South Central might lift north introduces a pattern change. GFS insists on increased chance of showers mainly near the east coast perhaps morning to mid-morning Tuesday moving inland during the day related to an inverted coastal trough lifting northward from the SE Florida coastal region (fingers crossed for the beach zones) but too far out in time , though it has been quite consistent on the possibility. 

Beyond Tuesday it looks more like a 'chances of showers near the coast in early morning hours migrating inland and toward the west coast late day' for several days with variations in that theme fora solid week. Any morning activity if so, very isolated.

Next 'significant'' over all change in the scheme of things is not even being hinted at until around the July 22nd time frame - well out of reach of reason and reason to rely on.

Chance of Isolated Stronger Storm Mainly Interior South Central - South: No Bacon Lovers

Towering Rain and Thunderstorms over the Banana River and Merritt Island
Sunday sent Down Lightning   within 1 1/2 miles of  beach goers in broad day light

TODAY: Slight chance of a few isolated strong storms mainly South and South Central Portions of the state. 

Conditions are a bit different today from yesterday. Per morning KSC sounding the Covenctive Temperature is 88F with 500mb temps running about 1-2 degrees cooler than past days increasing mid level lapse rates but barely. 700MB was at 10C which is quite warm. Suspect earlier iniation will stabilize those areas prior to sea breeze convergence. Activity most likely to be 'strong' would be from the effective Lake-Sea Breeze boundary mergers (South Florida) where coldest air aloft reside and across parts of Central later in the day when outflow boundaries combine with sea breeze/lake breeze convergences into parts of South Central mainly near to south of I-4.

Greatest threat as usual is dangerous cloud to ground (CG) lightning that occurs outside of (ahead or behind) the main precip cores like as what was occurring yesterday along the beaches of Central/North Brevard county. 

In the image above lightning was occurring within 1- 1 1/2 miles of beach goers while the sun was still blazing. Not a pleasant thought should a random bolt find it's way to unsuspecting sun bathers - someone could have received more than a 'sun burn'. in that situation.

Apart from the lightning threat, chance of strong wind gusts near the heaviest storms especially over the interior of South Florida and later in the day Eastern to Central parts of South Central where it is also cooler aloft but not as cool as over South Florida.

One difference today from yesterday is that the lower levels of the atmosphere yesterday had uniformly S-SSW winds from surface through the next 6000 ft up  the column which was  nearly parallel to the prevailing SSE-SE winds of the sea breeze and a bit stronger than today preventing what could have been better low level convergence to occur along surface boundaries. Those winds might not be quite as strong today, but do no have access to KSC Profiler data this morning to see if that is the case again.   Additionally, the KSC sounding came in late yesterday with a a convective temperature of 95F which might have explained why all the activity diminished so rapidly late day outside of where the best boundary mergers were still occurring. Cannot say if all that will be the case again today.

TUESDAY:  As usual, day by day situation at hand - though it appears tomorrow things will begin to wain both in coverage and intensity as the surface Atlantic ridge axis works to Central Florida with less overall atmospheric moisture to work with coupled with warmer air aloft. This leads to more isolated late day activity over the interior portions of the state as well as more heat from less cloud cover and rain cooled air. Expecting solid July temperatures in the mid 90Fs in many locations away from the modifying  effects of the afternoon sea breezes.

BEYOND: Not much change. if any. foreseen so far for many days to come - too far out in time to bother speculating over at this point.

Increased Shower /Storm Coverage - 'Strongest' Late Afternoon toward 7PM

Storm 'Skirts'  West of Port Canaveral Tuesday Evening

 TODAY: Looks like a near 'classic' active summer type day   at least in terms of model guidance coupled with the morning KSC Sounding sampling of the local environment which likely is representative of most all of Central Florida.

Temperature and humidity running along the expected norms with early cloud development providing for some shade. East and west coast sea breezes will form but the west coast boundary should make a head start tracking east   much more quickly than the other way around given winds just about the deck to near the top of the height of the sea breezes is west to east at around 15kts  though winds aloft are average about 8-10kts for storm motion apart from propotagin outflows along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Any showers that form along the sea breezes earlier in the day will send out boundaries after they collapse and from there on out it will be a matter of Storm Stratego and who happens to be in the range of fire.

Given that 700MB temps are running a bit below 'usual' near 5C and 500MB temperatures are also running just a tad cool, could be some locally strong storms late today after peak heating has occurred and boundary interactions are multiplied which aids   lift in areas that have not been 'worked over' prior from either earlier showers or rain cooled out flows. 

Showers could well form along either sea breeze today given that the convective temperature is 87F and there is no  cap  with the PWAT up to 2.02" . (Precipitable water values). 

Slow storm motions with prorogation  back to the east coast and north/south along either sea breeze front  toward to after dark could mean some locations will possibly accumulate a large rainfall total over 1.5"   but exactly 'where' is hard to say. Seems most likely East South Central to East Central though - near the I-95 strip toward even US1 and near Okeechobee as well.  Storms could most likely move offshore with a preserved integrity from Central Volusia and north . Not all locations off course will see rain today..it's all in the cards and what hand one has drawn to see how the dominoes will fall and play out which is typical summer fanfare.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: As is typical for summer patterns with no definitive upper level energy maxima or stronger upper level winds to note as   enhancing mechanisms for storm strength - yea  nary even much change in temperatures aloft,  even they could be just as active to not quite as active, might   evolve   from whatever results from out of the previous day in regard to where any boundaries are laid out. Thus, more of the same into the weekend, but each day will play out differently.

BEYOND: Much of the same with some variations in the routine beginning of next week but possibly coming right back to more of the same toward the middle of the week as the surface to mid-level ridge axis now near Far South Florida oscillates toward South Central or even Central and then back south again.

Greater Rainfall Coverage Today - 'Normal' Thunderstorm Patterns to arrive Tuesday

On This Day (June 26),  2014
Cocoa, Florida

TODAY: Outside of a weak disturbance moving SSW 'apparently' toward East Central Florida earlier this morning and any effect it might (or will not have) near the Brevard Coast little has changed in the overall scheme of things other than some increased moisture. All guidance concurs for an increase in coverage today for many locations over the interior counties almost state wide.  Looks like a day of what we would expect to see this time of year as opposed to   days  of rather meager coverage lately  (granted, if one has been impacted by a storm  it makes little difference to them).

MONDAY: Decreasing coverage as the overall wind fields aloft do not change significantly enough to make much of a difference but  moisture availability does decrease.

TUESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND: The long -heralded break down of the pesky Senora Heat Ridge which manifested over two weeks ago over the Western U.S. and was compressed eastward (aloft) will finally see its end of days in regard to the influence it's had over Florida.

Several rounds of upper level troughs passing near and south of Canadian Border and  across the Northeast states will : 

 June 26 , 2014 - Cape Canaveral

 

(1.) result in that ridging to retreat back to where it belongs (out West !!) but also;

(2)  break down the persistent Atlantic (Bermuda) high that has resulted in storm activity moving to the west side of the state or nearly not at all. 

The Western Flank of the Atlantic Ridge axis will shift east of the state (in general) and 'sift' south as well...(which affects the lowest levels of the atmosphere) while the retrogression of the  Senora Heat Ridge   back West to where it belongs affects the upper levels in regard to steering and warmer air aloft.

The sum total of those two changes will be more toughing over the Eastern United States. Though not necessarily directly over the state - these changes in both regards will allow both sea breezes to not only work their magic in regard to storm activity but also point the mid-upper level winds  toward the Florida East Coast (especially north of West Palm Beach - Ft Pierce areas). 

Not a guarantee all locations will 'then see rainfall' as a result, as the steering still will be rather weak. 

Thus, from near Indian River County and north to JAX beginning Tuesday into next weekend (at least) some of the rainfall thirsty regions of Southern Volusia south through Indian River or even Martin / St. Lucie (at times) at the immediate coasts will finally get a chance to see some rainfall / thunderstorms.  

Summer time like thunderstorm pattern Florida is 'famous' for  finally arrives !

Side bar: This near exact same pattern evolved last year in regard to the Ridges and their locations which left much of the East Coast without storm activity as well until the end of June. Once the pattern changed the stage was set for a large portion of the summer patterns to run its course outside of any 'would be' tropical influences.

Chance of Stronger Storms Mainly Eastern South Centra l- Parts of South Florida

"Saturday Morning" - Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY: Last day of higher rain threat chances and storms for quite some time to come (at least until  later next week) for most areas.  

Morning KSC sounding reveals 500MB temperature has dropped another degree (locally) from yesterday while 700mb temperatures maybe another 1/2 -1 F degree. It is in the 'rather cold' range and sufficient for production of rather strong surface wind gusts in or near the result of  bigger/taller storm updrafts today.

There were many reports yesterday between the 38 - 55mph wind range with two isolated severe cat winds reported . In general, the winds reported were best-guess estimates which is about the best one can hope for in many cases, or were readings from gauges that might not always be right at the ground level.

Either way, surface "cold front' is now across a line from near St. Augustine on the east coast to near  Cross City on the west coast, at least as it appears per surface wind observations tough the real 'push' still lags back up in Central Georgia where models are showing the boundary to be. Satellite imagery indeed shows the 'active functional part' of the front where convergence is still going on along it to be across or near Southern Georgia despite the northerly surface wind observations across far North Florida which might be more of a reflection of an outflow boundary from a line of severe storms that was approaching that area near sunset last night.  

Appears the latest HRRR run has over - estimated what is now going on across South Central which is pretty much nothing other than a patch of light rain so will discard that for early day activities. On the other hand, most of what could occur today will depend on where the surface boundary is actually located and not sure model guidance has a respectable handle on it. Best instability should be found today however South of I-10 and especially from near I-4 or from Daytona Beach to Brooksville and south to start the day . Upper level energy again in place today as a trigger.

The next consideration is whether a sea breeze will be able to form today. Surface pressure gradient does not appear quite as strong today but winds just above remain too strong to permit it to occur. Given the KSC sounding would think it would be possible for a very shallow boundary to form and perhaps work just to the coast but make no inland penetration at all if so.

Following HRRR trends, The RAP..and 4KM projections..and given the location of what appears might be the true surface boundary and where day time heating might have it's greatest chance to have the most effect, suspect that based on southern movement of the boundary into mid-afternoon to near Dead Central Florida by around 2-3PM if not earlier, the strongest storms might occur South Central and parts of South Florida as far south as even St Lucie County region later in the day or even Martin.

Storm motion will be from the WNW for the most part outside of boundary propagation and interactions and also be a bit slower in forward speed than yesterday. Rainfall totals then might be a bit larger today in those locations that per chance happen to be under a real big rain producer that is moving slowly.

As usual, being it's a weekend, beach goers will need to be extra attentive to the northern to western skies today. While on the beach itself it is often impossible to hear thunder at all until a storm is already so close that one has been subject to a lightning strike without even being aware of it unless it has been actually observed from a distance.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain showers with stronger ENE -NE winds . Though the front will likely clear all but maybe the Florida Keys before washing out by mid-day..moisture seems to remain sufficient enough for spotty polka dot like showers to stream by  accompanied by surface winds gusting to over 20 mph. Not such a great boating day but great for wind or para-surfing.

BEYOND ? : Mainly dry Monday through Wednesday at least. Model guidance diverges between model runs and model types with varying solutions on a run to run basis. This was anticipated per the MLB Forecast Discussion and in deed is what is occurring. The overall scheme of things appears to be a wet period coming up toward the end of next week, but the GFS is flailing it's arms up in surrender and thus far is deeming utterly useless even when compared with other model guidance. Tis the 'wet season'...and would hate to see it go to waste. Could we be in for a prolonged dry spell even in Late June? Shudder the thought !

Strong Storm Wind Gusts / Frequent Lightning Possible This Afternoon

Cape Canaveral Great Blue Heron  at Sunrise

TODAY: Upper level disturbance over North Florida analyzed by all model guidance is showing to drop south and east into Central Florida where it will mostly remain the rest of the day.

Morning KSC sounding shows the long anticipated 'colder air aloft' heralded to come several days (blogs) ago has arrived with 700mb temperatures running about 2 - 2 1/2C colder than yesterday and 500mb at 20,000 feet about 3 degrees colder than has been for quite some time. Cold air aloft, coupled with sufficient day time heating (mostly south of line running from near Mims - North Side of Tampa Bay) should make for better low level lapse rates as well.  Like yesterday there will not be  an east coast sea-breeze  which means the normal 'summer storm regime' will not be the case for today atmospheric festivities. Moisture depth has increased and Lifted Condensation Level's are already running rather low which makes for an easy  initiation with a convective temperature on the sounding of 90F for cumulus clouds and/or even a quick passing rain shower.  

Though the majority of 'rain causing coverage' will be of the shower variety, thunderstorms will indeed form today (or should at least) ..and with winds not far above the deck near 30 knts..could get rather 'breezy' to very gusty near heavier rain showers (even if one avoids the actual rain altogether). Chance of some potent lightning strikes , like yesterday, will also complete the package.
Winds could gust to 50-plus by some heavier activity around mid-afternoon or so toward parts of South Central as it now appears.

Rainfall might end a bit earlier today than it did in some locations other than down toward South Florida but cloudy skies would remain.

Strong storms will also be possible toward the Panhandle and/or JAX area late day or early evening

SATURDAY: Another and the last of short wave  disturbances moves down the state slowly . Tomorrow looks like a variation of today but guidance is showing better storm chances with both a low and mid-level trough axis aiding in convergence to be in place. Strong storms again possible this day with a marginal severe risk in the cards (though that is not per 'official outlets' namely The Storm Prediction Center) but will watch to see if the hedge their bets and up the ante from 'General Thunderstorms" in later forecasts.

BEYOND: COLD FRONT (gasp !) to move through all the state by Sunday's end ..but will clear all of Central by Sunday afternoon.  After perhaps some showers earelir (Central) easterly to ENE surface winds to increase and dry out the atmosphere for all but parts of South Central and South. Behind this arctic plummet of boundaries temperatures will recoil down toward seasonal norms overall, but morning lows will remain up at the coast with east winds coming off of low 80F ocean water temperatures.

 LATE SUNDAY - TUESDAY; These days for Central Florida look to be the days of the least likely chance of it raining at all. Breezy perhaps a bit late Sunday and/or Monday near the East Coast and on the beaches but tapering off into Tuesday and become 'seasonal' in direction in strength going into Wednesday.

EXTENDED: GFS  (and word has it) other Models are coming into a general agreement of the chances of  increasing rain/thunderstorm activity initially in the interior on Wednesday and Thursday but if the cards fall right (or wrong) rain chances might increase significantly for almost anywhere come next weekend and well into the following week for a variety of reasons. The last run of the GFS implied a 'tropical connection' from the Western Caribbean could add some boast to the the moisture levels in the atmosphere with a southerly flow regime, but that is too far out in time to cater to as of  now but worth watching.

Very Warm Again - East Central Beaches Could See Storms/Rain Today (Finally)

"Mid-June Cape Canaveral, Florida  Sunrise"

TODAY: West to Southwest flow surface and aloft will gradually increase into the weekend. This much has been now long advertised to be accompanied by colder air aloft come the weekend. 

As noted in previous post there was a concern that eventually the westerly flow just 'above the deck' would be too strong for even an east coast sea breeze to form. This appears might be the case come Thursday into Friday, but even moreso over the upcoming weekend. Will watch to see if tomorrow the east coast sea breeze can be a 'late bloomer pegged to within a mile or two of the coast' in any case and from there model guidance between the ECMWF and the GFS differs in how to deal with low pressure to form east of the Georgia - Jax coast well offshore along a stalled frontal boundary which may or might not make it as far south as Central Florida. All those factors affect the weekend forecast. But for today:

Warm again with inland highs in the mid 90Fs edging toward even warmer and lower 90Fs even along the east coast before onset of the sea breeze. Humid with rather high Heat Index numbers ranging from upper 90Fs to near 106F.

The latest water vapor loops show significant drying in the upper levels (see below) over the course of the past 24 hours yet with ample moisture in the lower levels per model guidance. Will be interesting to see the morning KSC Sounding. 

This usually means late  day activity in regard to thunder especially with continued warm air aloft which will require greater forcing with boundary mergers (lake breeze/sea breezes). 

Surprisingly the NAM handled the situation of last evening with even reports of small hail the best of all model guidance. For today, it again shows activity especially over the Brevard County area and south toward Ft. Pierce. Looks like a day that the Lake Shadow might play a role in initiation with outflow boundaries propagating northward to Brevard with time though once the west coast sea breeze works its way across the state, which will still take some time, a few showers could go up almost anywhere along either sea breeze boundary (the east coast sea breeze does not appear will make it much more than about 35 miles or so inland today so the collision will occur much close to I-95 today).

Last evening the sea breeze collision occur over and near the Florida turnpike in general but close to the east coast toward Volusia and north permitting activity to move offshore (not so further south)

THURSDAY: Westerlies up and down the atmospheric column begin to increase which 'might' put the crunch on development of the east coast sea breeze altogether but will give the benefit of the doubt and allow for one even closer to the coast to develop than for today. Might be there will be thunder but if so (and in this case) the thunder would be offshore rather than over land.  Moisture might be on the increase as well permitting more cumulus cloud coverage which would temper down afternoon high temperatures, but we'll have to see on that.

And Going into Friday - much like Thursday. If anything, the east coast sea breeze might be able to form near or south of Ft Pierce, so would look toward that area for the best chance of thunder both Thursday and Friday far South Central toward Dade County with showers possible as far north as the Cape .


BEYOND: As previously surmised numerous forecast challenges appeared to be waiting on the wings and model guidance (ECMWF vs GFS ) and forecast discussions from official sources allude to this.

For now favoring a perspective  based on history (it appears) and as inferred from the TPA office . With the east/west boundary and accompanying stretched out low pressure area in close proximity toward the Georgia/Florida border if not even further south and increasing moisture pooled along and ahead of it, looks like a case of early initiation over the eastern Gulf to those coastal counties there from Cedar Key and south going into the weekend. 

This activity then spreads eastward during the day and increases in coverage. Will be interesting to see how things pan out and when the boat comes in on the  two big player models  concerning the low pressure area and attendant trough as a summer weekend and accompanying plans for it need to be considered.

Until then, might look for a rather wet Saturday but starting on on the east side at least just like every other day this week.

Pattern Shift From Past Days - Storms Possible Nearer I-95 - One or Two Could be Strong

"Morning Catch" at The Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Mid - Upper Level Northwest flow with near zero easterly flow at the surface  of yesterday to start off this Sunday Morning appears will set up for a day most unlike that past several days. 


Colder air aloft as opposed to the past several days will be in place across I-10 and down the east side of the state toward Lake Okeechobee later today before shifting offshore in association with an upper level trough after sunset.

The GFS shows as an elongated vort max to ride down across or near what would be a sea breeze convergence boundary/zone might  which could ignite some healthier storms than of late  - so 'might get interesting'  in regions as noted in the image below.

One thing that could change the forecast for east siders would mainly be if anvil or rain/storm debris clouds  from the  'west side story' over-comes the unpolluted environment further east toward the Florida Turnpike/I-95 , stabilizing the atmosphere in those areas with cloud cover . 

Much of what occurs thus toward the east side today will not only depend on upper level energy and sea breeze convergence but what does or does not occur further west.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Monday appears to be a bit similar to today but with lower PWAT over all, less steering toward the East Coast,  no apparent upper level trigger (vorticity) depicted in guidance nor apparent in satellite imagery, and warmer at 500mb than today. 

For now will ride with Isolated storms late closer to the spine of the state but more isolated and not as 'potentially' active as storms might be able to be today.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: In previous post it was mentioned perhaps some 'stronger storms' come  Tuesday/Wednesday time frame due to colder air aloft. The 'colder air aloft' is now not shown to arrive until the Thursday time frame which is fine; however, guidance implies winds at 2000 feet of 15 kts (and stronger above that) from a westerly component up and down the state which could mean no east coast sea breeze thus very few storms but rather rain showers moving off shore.

 If so, then the high temperatures late in the week along the east coast might be quite warm unless there is more cumulus cloud coverage to provide shade. 

Either way, pattern change is taking place today and will continue through Wednesday with each day being a forecast challenge.

Continued Chance of Rains (South Central Focus) - 'Strong Storms' Next Week ?

Wednesday Morning Sunrise (Cape Canaveral)

TODAY: Boundary that had been across Central Florida early yesterday morning slid south to far South Central Florida yesterday afternoon into the evening. Guidance is split on what happens today with it, but will suspect it will lift a little back north again today or simply re-emerge further north. 

Much cloudiness and some light rain persists over parts of South and South Central Florida today. All in all , however, not much change from yesterday in that most areas that received rain yesterday are prone to that chance today (see below #1)

It appears the pattern since Colin's departure aside from the trailing boundary from that storm aforementioned in previous posts  is being complicated by a bit of a blocking pattern in the upper levels over the Western Atlantic in the Upper Levels near and in the 'Jet Stream Level". This is evident on water vapor imagery loops. A weak upper low well to the east of Florida has been dropping SSW and is now south of the eastern tip of Cuba and weakening the past few days yet while another gyre of dry air is pressing in from the east and moving west from east of Puerto Rico.  (See below : #2)    This is resulting in a bit of a 'squeeze play'' from the Yucatan up and across the far SE Gulf of Mexico and the southern 2/3rd of Florida.

 The Deeper Moisture however runs mainly south of a line running from near Oak Hill on the East Coast over toward Brooksville on the west coast and that is where the rain has fallen with the focus along the weak/oscillating surface nuisance boundary especially which is why it is the focus for one more day.

 Not sure it isn't but all by gone already though. E.G. The GFS and in part the NAM implies more of a boundary up between 3000 -7000 feet lifting north as a bit of a pseudo-elevated 'warm front' only in its inverted nature, and if that is the case will be watching for a concentration of potentially largest rainfall totals today just a bit further north than yesterday with a focus along a line running from near Vero - Sebastian on the East Coast toward near Sarasota on the West Coast along the 'surmised' superficial implication per model guidance.

IMAGE #1

IMAGE #2

FRIDAY - SATURDAY: Little change is being reflected by guidance but surely on 'the day to day basis'  differences will inevitably appear. Regardless, it now appears that rainfall chances (and more so disturbing the annoying cloud cover)  with not all that much in the ' thunderstorm category' apart from more isolated instances which is still possible  will be Smuggly with us  for a bit longer. 

"Ghost Buster"

BEYOND: The next big question is: 'What of next week?"

Per some forecast discussions from Official Sources NW flow aloft and drier air might be in the offing; so far the take of The Blogger is a bit different. 

The last two runs of the GFS are apparently not in agreement with the ECMWF (European Model) and will run favor a slant with the GFS.

If it is correct, a frontal boundary emerging from a large upper level Low embracing much of the Northeast states into early next week will drop toward Florida result in SW flow in combination with colder air aloft ; and with sufficient moisture (but not overly so) for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some possibly on the stronger side come the Tuesday and/or Wednesday time frame up through the end of next week. 

The only 'fly in the ointment' if that is to be so is that on some days the SW wind just 'off the deck' appears too strong to permit sea breeze circulations to come into play ; however, upper level energy (vorticity) does if that pattern were to become made manifest. 

"Oh Really Now"

Therefore, the 'question for next week week' is : 'Which form of  'guidance' is more helpful to the soothsayer? 

 For now, riding with the GFS: "Strong summer like thunderstorms possible much of next week into next weekend" and will monitor to see if the GFS changes keys from  Be Sharp to Sea Flat.

Smuggly With Showers and a Few Isolated Thunders Possible

5AM Radar shows Remnant Boundary Stretching East to West
 From Atlantic to Central Florida

TODAY: No significant changes today from yesterday's pattern. Trailing boundary from Colin still in place and easily evident on radar and satellite (see below) imagery.  Steering is from west to east or nearly so at a snails pace for shower activity but anything larger should be able to move a bit faster since winds above 20000 ft are in the 15-20kt range.

There is also quite a bit of cloud cover over the Gulf of Mexico which appears might drift eastward and affect sky conditions later today which bears watching. If so, that would lower the rain chances at that time, but so far it does not appear that will be the case.

Strong storms not anticipated due to warm mid-level temperatures.

There is a chance the east/west boundary will drift north a bit today then back south but all in all that would be the prime focus for rain activities today.

SMUGGLY: Muggy, "Close" (snugly or 'snuggle'), 
                   ugly,  like an 'ugly snuggle with mugginess'

THURSDAY: Vort max as mentioned in yesterday's post might not drift as far north as thought in that post (and is shown in today's post to be mainly just west of Key West where it remains most of the day.  However, will stick with previous post and hold fast (for blogger purposes ) to a slightly better chance
of showers/storms on Thursday , or at least an even greater rain 'chance' meaning larger coverage area.

The GFS continues to show 'backed winds' but now has them further south and so backed that Central Florida is put in ENE winds at the surface. This is a very unfavorable wind for storms, and as a result the guidance puts most rainfall into South Central and South Florida. Overall, details are too sketchy in this weak pressure pattern to say with much certainty.

Starting to look more and more like summer one way or the other in that regard.

Rain Chances "Might" Increase into Thursday

"Thunderstorm Associated with Colin's Presence Early Monday Evening - Cape Canaveral"

TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking from yesterday's post. Colin is merging with a much larger synoptic scale upper level trough as it lifts off to the east and north this morning toward the Carolina Coasts. A trailing surface through mid level boundary holds fast in Colin's tracks being held in place and in part due to high pressure well to the east preventing it from moving much further south.

Though this boundary may move south for a time today into tomorrow an upper level trough moving more across the  northern portions of the Midwest might cause the boundary to lift back north again.

For today, the impacts will be decreasing wind as Colin moves further away (from the WSW-SW) with continued chance of cloudiness and showers with perhaps even some 'thunder' as has been occurring more toward the west half of the state since well before sunrise. 

Best chance of thunder appears in this set up will be the west half of the state becoming more like light rain toward the east coast. All this to occur mainly 'along to south of  a line running from near OAK HILL on the east coast to BROOKSVILLE on the west coast (but not in entirety). Not so say that some 'true thunder like activity' might not occur most anywhere once daytime heating gets established - but for now history says 'watch the west half of state (Central portions)'.

WEDNESDAY: Similar set up is in the cards though perhaps a bit further south.

BEYOND to THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The GFS had picked up the upcoming days it appears yesterday and the NAM to some regards is coming into agreement in stages. A disturbance will emerge from south of the west tip of Cuba and lift north around the Atlantic Ridge and merge with what remains of the surface boundary. The RESPONSE to that disturbance will be to back the surface winds a bit to more from the south or even SSE for a brief time across parts of Central and South Florida. Thus, suspect a 'better chance of storms and rains for more areas' with better convergence along/near the remnant boundary might be in the cards sometime between overnight Wednesday into the day time Thursday/Thursday evening.

SATURDAY: Really to far out in time to expect model guidance to be accurate on smaller atmospheric perturbations, but again the GFS hints yet another mid-upper level disturbance will track slowly toward the state making for one last gasp atbetter rain chances. Timing , if this is to be so, is also at this point in question. 

Either way, rain chances could be with much of Central through South Florida through Saturday for a variety of reasons, though 'strong' storms are not anticipated lightning activity might become an issue on Thursday and Saturday if guidance holds fast.

"Stormy Colin Skies Late Monday Afternoon"

'PsyColin-ic' Tornado Threat Bears Watching

TODAY: Short blog post as all who would bother reading this blog are already more than likely well aware to varying degrees about Tropical Storm Colin as well as the Watches/Warnings currently in place regarding the Florida Peninsula and both Coasts.

For the latest info See the National Hurricane Center at this link:   NHC Graphics Link Click Here

Apart from the 'potentials' regarding Colin itself, (mostly to the immediate west coast north of Tampa Bay or near to it), a secondary 'tornado threat' might be able to emerge come late morning toward noon time west coast and spread east to the other coast by mid-afternoon through early evening.

For blog purposes highlighting  perhaps  'secondary area of interest (AOI)' being the East Coast. Guidance agrees the greatest surface based instability this afternoon will be over the Atlantic waters and close to the coast where there it will remain rain free and the atmosphere less contaminated by early rainfall.

 Greatest surface based Instability combined with mid level directional and speed shear might increase come the 1PM time frame through around sunset as Colin becomes a bit more organized in and expands in the mid -levels. 

**** All this 'assumes' , however, the track of Colin as currently forecast .

Conditions might quickly change come the 1-2PM time frame.
Suggest monitoring favorite local channels such as for Central Florida , WFTV-Ch 9 or Channel 13 and/or NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts just to check-in and see if indeed such conditions are beginning to manifest. 

TUESDAY: Though Colin will be already well on its  way from Florida by Tuesday morning, there is quite a current of high precipitable water values dragging along behind the system. Some guidance as of this morning implies the potential for stronger thunderstorms mainly across 'anywhere' Central Florida due to this moisture combined with a pseudo-surface boundary left behind the storm. The Storm Prediction Center has already bit and is monitoring most of the state with a 'marginal risk' of severe storms Tuesday as well. 

If nothing else changes they could occur most anytime after late morning meaning this would again not be the standard 'summer thunderstorm regime' type set up.

BEYOND: Moisture band will shift to 'mainly' South Central and South Florida comes Wednesday and Thursday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will thus decrease especially along and north of I-4.