Showers / Thunder Possible Central/North Late - Above Normal Temperatures Continue

February 24 2014 - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not much change from previous reasoning. Low level surface ridge axis across far South Florida combined with closest approach to the north of upper level trough will yield a general SSW flow aloft while sea breezes will still be permitted to become active. Slight surface based instability with very cool air aloft but with poor lapse rates in the mid levels could still yield some thunder where greatest upward forcing occurs late today toward interior Central/East Central up toward eastern portions of North Central (Volusia County) the vicinity of the west-east coast sea breeze collision zone where best surface based instability will also be present after a full day of heating. 

Otherwise, continued warm with temperatures averaging 10-15F degrees above climatological norms for this time of year. At this time of year in history past there has been historic freeze events (only to emphasize how varied one year can be from the next).

Best chance of showers will be approximately 10 miles from any coast "South to most of Central Florida" but with a working toward the immediate coast mainly from Central Brevard northward. A thunder might occur near the Lake Okeechobee / Sea Breeze collision boundary  South Central but the greater focus appears to be in the Orlando/Osceola County region to east side of Orlando, maybe even working toward I-95 Central Brevard most likely near to after dark. After sunset would 'expect' the activity would quickly dwindle (at least in regard to lightning chance) with some strangling in-cloud lightning aloft remaining a possibility with thunder audible some areas.

Activity could potentially work offshore Volusia County as thunder and rain showers from Central Brevard northward is not entirely out of the question.

Many areas will not see rain at all today but those that do it will be a welcome sight for days ahead appear to continue to be on the dry side, as would be generally expected this time of year.

MONDAY- TUESDAY: Dry most areas and continued warm. Best chance of showers or maybe some thunder mainly interior western parts of North Central up toward I-10. (Lake County, areas around Ocala, Gainesville). This will occur as the ridge axis currently far South Florida lifts toward North Florida putting the majority of the state under a light easterly flow pattern. Thus, coastal afternoon temperatures will continue to be greatly modified by cool air advection off the near shore Atlantic waters making for 10F or less degree variations between overnight temperatures and afternoon highs at the beaches.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT SUNDAY: Little change in temperatures with dry conditions. A frontal boundary to ease down the state in a rather  ' backdoor fashion ' will modify temperatures just a bit come Friday into Saturday time frame with little to no fanfare. Saturday might be a bit cooler with a recovery on Sunday at least as is currently being reflected by the GFS model. Even so, those cooler temperatures will still be above 'normal' and not below the 64F mark overnight (interior).

FURTHER OUT: Any big cold blasts from the past on the horizon? Yes and No. Very long range climactic model guidance has at times been showing 'much colder' coming into the first or second week of March which is questionable given how far out in time that projection is. It is not unusual to have a very cool to cold spell in the first half (at least ) of March, but usually they are rather short-lived. The trend, however, has been to ease off that potential.

Above "Normal' Temperatures Continues into Next Week / Chance of Central Thunder Sunday

"Jacob" (or Jake) near Port Canaveral Jetty - 2015 Early February

TODAY: Not much discernible change in the overall weather scheme other than rising dew-points. Early Saturday morning dew-points near the east coast were in the upper 60Fs to near 70Fs. 

With increased moisture will be an increased 'mugginess' especially notable in the mornings for some time to come. 

Afternoon highs west of US1 in the lower 80Fs with highs approaching the mid-80Fs in more interior locations possible almost anywhere. Coolest afternoon highs near the immediate coast, depending on how long before the east coast sea breeze sets in, but in general beaches will see upper 70Fs until that time, at which point they will go down as wind blows across ocean temperatures now running in the mid 60Fs.

Elsewhere, a frontal boundary stretched SW to NE across the Deep South will set the stage for wide spread rain and cloud cover, with some thunder possible mostly across the West Half to Third of the Florida Panhandle later today / tonight.

SUNDAY: Again, not much change as frontal boundary begins to stall before reaching Florida. Wind will be more southerly and light, though with the upper trough making it's closest 'approach' to the Peninsula mid-level winds will have gained  more of a SW to NE steering flow. 

The east coast sea breeze will work inland but may not much make it more than 30-40 miles inland of the east coast (South of I-4) 

Best convergence of sea breezes with light to moderate surface based instability could yield boundary driven showers and maybe even some thunder 'somewhere' within the region shown below. 

The best chance of thunder will be very close to the region of low level surface temperature contrasts which will be ahead of the sea breeze, thus over the 'interior' in general. With the steering from SSW-SW toward the east coast some activity might be able to reach even the beaches toward to after dark. The risk of 'thunder' by that time might be minimal as low - mid level lapse rates look quite week, not strong enough to support updrafts as is currently being shown. Surface based instability (CAPE) will be running around 1000 j/kg (compare to summer months when it runs between 2800 - 4000 j/kg). Additionally, any shower or storm activity approaching the east coast will be riding over much cooler surface temperatures (courtesy of the cool ocean temperatures) which likely would put the kibosh on any activity attempting to reach the coast.

The NAM model is not nearly as generous with the 'rain coverage', showing a storm closer toward interior Volusia County and others possible more toward SW Florida. On the other hand, the GFS has consistently been favoring 'mainly' south of I4 toward the interior with a drift to the immediate east coast after dark.

So for now, just drew an 'overall and in general' image for where rain/thunder might occur late Sunday into the evening.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Little change in overall temperature scheme, with the interior (or region west of US1) much warmer than the 'immediate beach' going into mid-later afternoon once sea breezes develop. 

Warmest temperatures likely 20 miles from any coast, not to say that all areas won't  be a bit above normal. If there is to be any 'records' broken, morning warm minimums   seem more likely, especially at the beaches; however, since the officially recorded locations that establish the norms/records in those locations are non-existent there will be no way to know if indeed, record warm minimums have been set at the beaches, so we'll have to rely on other sparsely official sites such as Melbourne / Ft Pierce / Vero Beach (at least as far as the east coast is concerned). Otherwise, afternoon maxes will be a challenge. In past years we have seen upper 80Fs set as records going back up to 60 years ago. Regardless...

Chance of shower or even thunder  continues for a region north of I-4 such as in Lake County up toward the Ocala Region (interior North Central to NW Interior Florida) Monday or both days.

MIDWEEK - FRIDAY: Dryer weather with little to no chance of rain with temperatures continuing as already discussed. 

Though a front may will slide down the state  Wednesday no rain is anticipated with it, and only slight cooling will be noticed from it, especially on Thursday morning; even so, morning lows will still be in the lower -mid 60Fs for areas at the beaches Central Florida and south with the interiors noticing more of the 'drop' which will still result in above normal morning lows.

Quick recovery on temperatures though 'alqd ' (All Quadrants) come Friday.

Latest guidance now shows it could be warmer even into all of next weekend, but previous guidance was not so generous. 

Too far out to say for now.

Slight Chance of Storms Tomorrow - Bleak Midwinter Next Week

Sunrise, January 10 , 2018 Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Pleasant and rather 'muggy' by early January standards. Wind is swinging around to the south today at long last (!) but not for long, sad to say.  Meanwhile pleasant day in store as cloud clear up, afternoon clouds here and there with a small chance of showers mainly across the interior later this afternoon to early evening. Meanwhile...

TONIGHT - FRIDAY: Another powerful upper level trough is cranking east and south down the Central Plains with a very sharp frontal boundary developing ahead of it. The front will extend south well into the Central Gulf during the overnight with some thunderstorm convection developing along the southern bounds of it; cold air intrudes immediately behind the boundary at this stage.

Both the GFS and NAM imply the development of a pre-frontal boundary to develop ahead of the main front over night and more so as the system approaches Florida from the west through north.

Friday from Early Afternoon toward Sunset (West to East) 

The NAM is very aggressive with the wind shift associated with the prefrontal trough (hence, low level convergence) as well as the amount of surface based instability that will form over the state during the day tomorrow. The GFS takes a much more subtle approach to the whole matter and does not look impressed. The NAM does at times seem to be on steroids but if it pans out, wording in local forecasts might need to be 'hedged up' a few notches in the 'thunderstorm' category mainly for areas of Central   and North (especially for parts of Lake , Volusia and Seminole Counties) .For now, just a heads up otherwise:

SATURDAY: The cold front to move through the state after dark Friday night, post pre-frontal boundary. Though behind this front the air mass will not be like our former northern visitor of late, it will still be cool again. After that last go -around we'll be able to deal with the punches a bit better though (hopefully).

The next several days show mainly lows in the 40Fs and highs in lower to mid-60Fs with warmest over night along the immediate east coast after Sunday morning.

BUT THAT'S NOT ALL: Guidance leans now to no recovery before yet another boundary plows through further re-enforcing the situation. Enough is enough already? But no..here it comes again, and if that's not enough another yet still! Make it stop.  How cold will it be getting next week?

So far, no fears, just cold enough to be irritating but not so cold that  a state wide emergency freeze looks possible; north and west of I-4 might be a different story though.

This cold weather should be expected though. We are, after-all, just entering the "bleak midwinter' (or best of the best depending on how one likes it) time of year through to about the last few days of January. Time sure seems to creep in colder weather .

The Worst is Over - Slow But Sure "Warming" Overnight Saturday

Sunrise - January 6, 2017

TODAY: Chilly start to the morning, even colder than yesterday across North Florida. As of 6AM, for example, the temperature at Crestview is 20F with the Milton Naval Air Station at 21F;   Duke Field reads 22F and  Panama City sits at 23F, while Tallahassee basks in 27F right near Route 27. Orlando subs-out reading near the freezing mark, while the far east central coast is similar to yesterday with breezier conditions (unfortunately).

After the aforementioned cold start to the day not much change from yesterday other than sky conditions for mainly Central and South. Latest satellite imagery shows some cirrostratus (mid-high cloud type) approaching from the west (see below). How much they will thin out is uncertain (if at all). 

As is being shown now per viewing model guidance upper level moisture fields, however, they will encroach over the peninsula during the hours of what would normally be the peak heating hours, and as a result of that combined with the low sun angle this time of year, insolation will be minimized keeping afternoon highs down to similar to maybe a tad warmer than yesterday but not by all that much.

The flip side to these clouds, however, will be realized over-night tonight. That being, not as cold most areas. Latest official forecasts are holding on to the freezing temperatures but I'm not seeing it right now. Mostly seeing mid-upper 30Fs but along the immediate coast (Cape and South) looks more like lower - mid 40Fs as opposed to mid-upper 30Fs as was the case yesterday and this morning.

SATURDAY: Given the above, with slightly warmer temperatures (temps) overnight , we will have a slightly warmer start to the day as high clouds continue but are on the move out. 

Afternoon highs on Saturday should breach mid 50Fs with increasing sunshine (hopefully!) so that lower 60Fs to 'near 60F' will be realized from The Beach -Line (or 'Dead Central') and south, remaining cooler I-4 and north. Wind will also be decreasing for those at the coast where it continues to be effective much more than across inland areas where some areas are nearly calm.

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: True warm up begins, first realized along the immediate east coast after midnight. Onshore component wind and modifying affects as it flows across warmer sea surface temperatures could lift the morning low up toward the mid 50Fs as highs breach the lower to mid 60Fs. Still below normal. Does not look like the high clouds will be around any longer either.

Sunday looks to be a very pleasant but still somewhat cool day. All in all, can pack up the heavy cold weather gear now for quite some time to come! (But keep out the cool weather gear).

MONDAY: Even warmer yet still. Morning lows at beaches closer to the lower 60Fs (can we hear mid 60Fs?), warmer even far Southeast Florida in the upper 60Fs to near 70F. Afternoon highs in the lower 70Fs as wind becomes Southeasterly in the 10 mph during the afternoon. 
January 8th looks to be a very nice day.

The time frame between MONDAY and TUESDAY has been a bone of contention in guidance for several days now. The GFS was showing a front to pass through sometime between early Tuesday morning, the 9th, to mid afternoon and most official forecasts bit on it, but alas, it is now slowing down across two consecutive runs on that frontal passage and coming into an agreement  with the ECMWF (European) model. 

Cloud cover will increase as will some rain chances, mainly far northwest Florida. Highs on Monday in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover with wind from the south but light.

TUESDAY: The 'new situation' at hand, at least as it stands now and given the trends of the GFS is for a rather sloppy ill defined frontal passage. Was watching for the risk of thunder, mainly South Half of state at some point between sunrise and set, and still watching for it, but low level instability is sorely lacking and the wind shear that 'could have' supported 'thunder' isn't sufficient to overcome the lack of instability. Other than a chance of showers (particularly south and far North Florida)...the trend is for highs again in the 70Fs and lows in the upper 50Fs interior to mid-60Fs east coast. Chances are there will be clouds around too.

BEYOND: The front slides across the state as it slowly drops south between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon now more as if in a west to east fashion and onshore flow immediately resumes control afterward. The end result is temperatures near normal in the afternoon and morning lows a bit above normal.

Said light onshore flow continues until the next chance of a frontal passage around the 14th - 16th time frame. In the winter, fronts go through on average ever 4-6 days, though up to a week is not unheard of either, while during the strongest cold weather events that go through transparently as frequently within 24 hours of each other, thus giving re-enforcing shots of cold air. 

As the jet stream pattern is being forecast to lift northward and become more 'zonal', meaning more of an east to west pattern with ripples in it rather than taking deep plunges from north to south, across the mid regions of the country, all things will come out in the wash as 'average' for quite a while if that is to be the case. The next cool spell seen in 'the crystal ball of uncertainty' is showing nothing more than, by comparison to the last few days, nothing more that a 'cool spell'.

: Sleet - Wintry Mix with Wind Possibly Northeast Florida by Wednesday

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NOW: Cold front as of 11:30AM is passing south down Central Florida followed by the anticipated and rather abrupt up tick of cooler NNW-N wind on its heals. The front is anticipated to proceed only slowly south through the day toward far South Florida.

The warmest temperature of the day might well have already been realized across most parts of Central Florida or is about to be in regions north of Lake Okeechobee in the next few hours as it drops south. 

Coldest temperatures during the day will be along the Beach Line (Central Florida) and north and just a fraction of a few miles away from the immediate coast line south of southern Volusia County.

Temperatures across the beaches of Brevard might hold near steady in the lower 60Fs the rest of the day but a short journey west will reveal cooler air to be at hand. Cloudy skies to prevail all day in the increasingly unagreeable conditions , at least if one was anticipating a sunshiny romp in the surf, as satellite imagery clearly reveals the sky conditions further down stream heading across the state.

TONIGHT: Sky conditions remain cloudy and temperatures somewhat level off, especially near the exact coast line south of the cape where the wind will have acquired a slight onshore component if not parallel to the coast . Not expecting a huge drop in temperature therefore along and east of US1 south of the area around Oak Hill in southern Volusia County unless one is further inland. Even yet still, cloud cover will aid to 'blanket' the low levels to prevent a greater drop in over night temperatures.

TUESDAY: Hold status quo, possibly some light rain or drizzle will manifest near the beaches mainly Cape and south, more likely from near Ft Pierce and south (however). Brisk wind continues otherwise with cool temperatures. 

Again, not necessarily 'all so cold' with lows Tuesday morning upper 50Fs to near 60F but much colder inland and especially NW and N Florida, or along I-75 /Rte 27 east of Tampa Bay and west of Orlando northward.

WEDNESDAY: Secondary mid level impulse with yet another frontal boundary approaches North Florida. 

As is the case in 'too close to call  for marginal wintry situations', the temperatures not only at the surface but in the lower 5000 feet just above the surface combined are all critical determinant factors in the form in which precipitation will fall as this energies and accompanying moisture advect over the region - additionally whatever change in 'type' it might undergo as it falls is problematic for the forecast.

For now, looks like there could be a period of 'snow' somewhere east of Tallahassee toward Jacksonville and parts a bit south of there as well. If so, as things stand now, that would change over to sleet with time but it simply is too hard to say for certain on any regard. Guidance is in agreement though on quite cool to cold air with 'precipitation'...there is still question on the tempo-areal situation at had to make a definitive call.

Such conditions or rather 'threat of them'  appears to  commence early Wednesday morning  through the mid afternoon. The area to watch for said, 'wintry mess' (mix) is primarily North East Florida.

Further south, there is a chance of rainfall again but mainly very close to the immediate beach side areas from the Cape down toward Dade County. Wind continues from the NE in general gusting up to perhaps 28 mph or so at times with temperatures holding within 3 degrees either side of 60F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: Next cold front plunges southward down the state as deep and powerful low pressure area which will have formed near the northern Bahamas rapidly lifts up toward the North. Coastal Carolinas , perhaps even Coastal Georgia might be able to get a good snow event from this one contingent upon just exactly how close to the eastern U.S. Coast the entire' system' traverses. Close call , so the forecasters will be working their every pennies worth on this one no doubt for forecast accuracy.

THURSDAY MORNING - FRIDAY: Freezing to below freezing temperatures likely for parts of at least northern Lake County toward interior Western Volusia County and northward, with even mid-lower 20FS possible along I-10/panhandle region.

Gusting winds up to 25mph or so in some locations with lows near 36-40F east coast to lower to mid 30Fs interior Central, with highs it appears for Central in the upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs (colder north, a bit warmer south as usual). Would not be surprised though if Central Florida , especially North Central never cracks 50F degrees Thursday afternoon.

Coldest morning of the entire 'event' will either be Friday or Saturday morning, and will be experienced it appears somewhere along the Western Interior regions of the state. Highs on Friday lower 50Fs Central, mid 50Fs south, and mid-upper 40Fs North Florida. Wind will have decreased somewhat to the 15 mph range, though some inland areas in the morning hours will likely see much less wind than near the coast where mixing of the colder air will occur with the warmer air just above the intracoastal waterways

The GFS model is much milder in the forecast however, so this will continue to be monitored no doubt by official outlets. The NAM and the CMC models are much more aggressive with 'The Plunge' and extensive coverage of the colder air , as well as the 'degree' as to how cold it will get, varying by as much as 5-8 F degrees colder than the GFS. The 'Big Q' then is 'how low will it go?". Regardless, no matter which way one looks at it, the cold and wind will have arrived full frontal assault after midnight Wednesday night all through Friday into Friday evening.

SATURDAY: Wind will notably have decreased yet more as it  in by inch will be veering more toward NNE direction. Warmer air of the Atlantic notable even perhaps at the coast by morning as lows might be a good 10F degrees warmer there than previous mornings. The slow but sure 'warming' trend commences, but it will start out quite slow. 

Afternoon highs back into the lower 60Fs south of I-4, mid 60Fs parts of South Central Florida. Still below 'normal'.

SUNDAY: Again wind remains light and from the ENE-NE. Morning lows at the beaches this day could be even in mid-upper 50Fs (?) but colder the further west and north one traverses toward areas like Ocala and north. GFS shows a low, for instance , at the Cape of around 52F, but it might be warmer than that. Sunday afternoon could be seeing upper 60Fs however, which would be nearly 20F degrees warmer than say, Thursday's high temperature.

MONDAY: January 8th might be into the 70Fs as another front approaches. The jury is out for now as to when the next front will cross through. Either later on the 8th or the 9th is not certain. Impacts behind this boundary are not shown to be nearly as 'wrenched  as our upcoming few days later this week though, taking temperatures down to near to just below seasonal norms .

Seeing how this beyond reliability forecast range the pre-requisite ON The OTHER HAND must be mentioned: What happens beyond the 9th is of great uncertainty. The GFS is not consistent from one run to the next, nor does it agree with other models  which also are oscillating/ are behaving inconsistently.   For Example, one run might portray what appears would be a call for a prolonged warmer period,, but before one can even take their jacket off in anticipation of it, the next model run comes out and says, 'not so fast'. 

Cloudy , Dank and Wet - Then Colder Yet Still Through Saturday

TODAY: Nicest day of the week in regard to sky, wind, and rain free conditions combined. Enjoy it while it lasts!  Not much to say about today as temperatures remain cool, even a bit below normal, but otherwise uneventful as a new year arrives.

TONIGHT - MONDAY: Cloud cover will be increasing across the north even more where it is already cloudy as we speak (see next image below)  but will begin to drop further south along a frontal boundary. This boundary is the beginning or onset of what will eventually usher forth a much colder 'air mass' come later in the week, as it is defining the leading edge of said colder air.

In the mean time, increasing cloud cover with a chance of showers light rain commences across parts of North Central by early Monday morning and slowly begins to drop south over-coming most of Central to South Central Florida later in the day. The result of of extensive cloud cover combined with the low sun angle this time of year will be to prevent temperatures from rising possibly out of the mid-upper 50Fs, especially where any rain is falling. Better chances of seeing the 60Fs and even some lower 70Fs is South Central and South Florida. 

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind increasing from the NNE - NE, gusting up toward 30 mph perhaps come late Tuesday night into Wednesday as broad and powerful high pressure works south from the northern states. The slight onshore component will keep overnight lows right near the east coast near normal but much colder air will already prevail across NW Florida.

 Low pressure will form off the Florida East Coast and that combined with what might be a bit of an inverted coastal trough running up the west side of The Gulf Stream just off shore to near the coast may well begin to manifest low level convergence resulting in much pesky cloudy cover and likely rainfall, mainly along to even only east of I-95, even US1.  Though we might see a break in the rains after Monday night into early Tuesday it does appear there will be a heavier return of the rains  to come sometime Tuesday and possibly all of Wednesday, mostly for the areas shown below. 

Temperatures for Central Florida mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs. Guidance is showing lower 60Fs, but suspect that if rain is falling, wherever that might be, temperatures could be substantially lower due to cold air aloft being dragged to the surface in and near rainfall. 

Coastal conditions will be most unplayful with gusting NNE - NE winds up toward 25-30mph, cloudy skies, and very cool temperatures accompanying any rainfall. Dank , wet, and windy as of now seems to sum of Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Large  and extensive area of low pressure that is form offshore will quickly lift off to the NNE offshore and up the U.S. east coast as the 'great plunge' of much colder air plows southeastward down the spine of the state over night Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Very rapid clearing in sky conditions from NW to SE down the state Wednesday aternoon into evening hours at least, but much colder by Thursday morning with lows across Central mainly the mid-upper 30Fs to near 40F (right at the beach south of the Cape). Freezing temperatures so far this morning anticipated possibly along to north of I-4 interior.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Wind will decrease somewhat but mornings continue quite 'cold' all things considered. Still any breeze will be felt, and no sign so far it will let up entirely.  This 'cold spell' appears will outdo anything we've seen the past two winters as it stands now in regard to 'duration'. 

 Possibly freezing temperatures interior with mid-upper 30Fs most areas (except far South Florida). Overall, this does not look like a 'big freeze' situation that would 'make the record books' as of now at least. We've seen worse. 

BEYOND: Looks like   continued breezy conditions , if so will be a blessing in disguise  . This would prevent much of a radiational cooling type situation, at least near the coast but again (which could lead to a damaging state wide freeze), it is too far out in time to know for certain if this will be the case.

The other 'good' side of the story is that as wind shifts to more of a NE-ENE component on Saturday afternoon a warm up will be most notable rather quickly. Not that it will immediately get 'warm' but things will all be relative by then. Low 60Fs will be 'warm by standard of the previous three days' especially by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: The GFS and the CFSV2 (climate model) indicate the chance of a much longer 'warmer period thereafter', with temperatures running at to above normal well into mid January (?).

Noting, the coldest period of the year historically for any 'sustained periods of time' is  typically between early January to the last week of January. The question is, will  this be the worst overall 'temperature wise' that winter will deal out for us this season or not? Time will tell. 

The plus side so far is that warmer weather is already being foreseen despite this upcoming first week of 2018.   But again, going out beyond even 7 days is entering unchartered territory.

Above to 'Near Record Highs" Through Christmas Eve

TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Very little change in the 'scheme of things'
as strong high pressure over the Bahamas - Florida - Western Gulf  at the surface in response to increased upper level heights perpetuates the current trend.

Though there is quite a bit of low clouds / fog in some areas this morning, and some higher clouds as well streaming over Central Florida early today, the fog will eventually break up and yield to mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be rather similar in the afternoon, especially close to the east coast where ocean temperatures are in the mid-60Fs (north) to the lower 70Fs (far south). Canaveral Jetty has been reading around68F for water temperatures recently. This means highs in the lower 80Fs inland and upper end of mid to upper 70Fs right at the beach accompanied by a light NE wind.

THURSDAY - SUNDAY:  Morning fog might continue to be an issue, at least for a few more days, typical of winter weather during the 'warmer' periods.

As a deep, upper level trough and related cold (in some case, extremely cold) air mass plunges across the Western and Central portions of the country with readings that will end up a good 10-20F degrees below 0F across the Dakotas, Wyoming, parts of Colorado, Minnesota, even possibly into Iowa, Florida will remain the 'hot' spot, especially later in the period as the front will struggle to reach the state. 

Wind will become more from a SW direction which could mean even the east coast will be seeing solid lower - mid 80Fs. It is on one (or more) of these days that we might see near record highs near the East Coast locations. Melbourne, Ft Pierce, Vero or Daytona might all stand a chance of reaching a new record.

 Regardless, no snow during this period over Florida on Christmas Eve.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Guidance diverges most notably for Christmas Day as to when the front eventually glides through Central to South Florida; so far they imply it would be late in the day rather than earlier, which could mean yet another warm day for certain regions south of I-4. Too soon to say however.

At this point, three Ensemble models: The GEFS, GEPS,and EPS vary as well but not too significantly in regard to exactly 'how low will it go' once the front does go through. 

So far they all agree that the 'least affected region' will be the east coast south of The Cape and around South Florida , mainly south of Lake Okeechobee. 

The 'most affected' would be the Panhandle region...north of I-4 and the Nature Coast region north of Tampa Bay.  For perspective, the east coast so far is forecast to see temperatures around 1-3F below 'normal', but much cooler for regions west and north.

All in all, little if any precipitation is foreseen as well. Cold fronts to be accompanied mainly by cloud cover is about it, and maybe some light to gentle sprinkles of rain at most is being implied.

The GFS operational model has been much more aggressive with the colder air, it appears now, but the ensembles   together do not show temperature falls nearly as drastic' as the operational run. 

Considering the   ensembles do not show all the much of a change, 'would anticipate at this point' a return to 'near to just a bit cooler' than normal temperatures for the east coast, mostly due to cooler afternoon highs. 

Watching Like a Hawk for 'Potential Severe' - Prolonged Cold Spell on Tap

TODAY: What a day of contrasts currently at hand !

 If one is along a line from North Brevard to Tampa southward, they'd never guess that not far away are completely overcast skies and temperatures as much as 25F degrees colder (as of 1pm). 

Temperatures last hour in the Panhandle Region are running  in the  upper 40Fs through the 50Fs  with mid 70Fs to lower 80Fs across South Central and South Florida.  A stationary front has come to a halt across Central Brevard stretching across the state to the north side of Tampa Bay and will remain in place more or less the rest of the day before slowly lifting back north overnight or into early Friday.

Frontal Boundary bisects the state this afternoon

TONIGHT: Not much change overnight as this boundary remains nearly stationary. A powerful upper level trough with Jet Stream winds plunging southward across the East Central U.S. and associated  'energy' with strong mid-upper level winds as well will approach the state late tomorrow and then cross the state mainly north of a line from Ft Pierce to Sarasota during the overnight resulting in increasing mid-level lift due to speed shear though there might also be just a bit of directional shear mainly north of that line.

Models vary significantly in the finer (and most important details) as to where the Risk of any strong to severe storms might occur, with the NAM model showing the potential well into Northern Parts of North Central Florida, but for now will not go there and stay further south . However....

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT- EARLY SATURDAY: The Storm Prediction Center in their latest outlook Is favoring a bit further north than what this post is showing for a 'risk area'. 

Either way, the Time of 'Greatest Potential Risk' for strong surface winds to Severe Strength if not even mini-swirl type tornadic activity appears most likely  along to south of I-4 after Dark on a developing Quasi-Linear Convective System Type Squall Line (if the 3KM NAM is to be believe). 

This is  still a  " 'yet to be seen'  -  'still in development' " type situation as far as forecasting is concerned. Timing and location could vary greatly yet still. 

Otherwise, the chance of seeing rain, some heavy with totals been 1/2" - 1.5"  (some places much less) across the entire state at varying times is high, beginning late Friday running through mid  morning - early afternoon Saturday (South Florida), though again, that could change. 

Rains will end rapidly from north to south, and might be over with across North Central between 9AM -1PM Saturday , though could be as much as 3 hours sooner (or later). Least to clear as would be expected, South Florida mid day Saturday.


SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Behind the front cold air advection commences with gusty NW winds over 25 mph at times. The Full Thrust of  'cold air' will not be yet realized, however, until yet another front is to approach sometime around late Tuesday. Regardless, highs on Saturday afternoon might not see 60F along and north of I4 with Sunday morning lows in the upper 30Fs interior to lower -mid 40Fs in many locations .  

SUNDAY: With the above said, either Sunday/Monday morning for some folks along the east coast might see the coldest morning experienced since the coldest morning all of last winter, coupled with wind chill readings. Wind however by Monday morning will have tapered off significantly.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: "Warming trend' if you can call it that. 

Though it will be 'warmer'  after another cold Monday morning through Tuesday the temperatures will still be below 'normal',  but after the previous two days might not feel so bad comparably speaking.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Yet another front if not two will progress down the state with the greater surge of colder air now being anticipated. The Canadian Model actually indicates a near State Wide Freeze Thursday/Friday mornings but the GFS doesn't even come close to such as that and not sold on the idea either.

Regardless, the potential remains that for  some folks along the East Coast South of I-4 to see colder weather later next week than was experienced nearly all of last winter with gusting winds to boot.

BEYOND: As would be expected we're now referring to a time frame of greater uncertainty from what is already quite a bit of previous uncertainty. 

General trend has been a warm up in the great beyond, that is, until the last GFS model came out.   Thus, as is always the case this far out in time, there is no way in knowing what is to come toward the Days Just before and on Christmas quite yet.

"Winter's Chill Is Comin' To Town' - Saturday and Beyond

December 5  2017   Cocoa Beach , Florida  Morning

Will leave this post short for today  but to sound the 'alarm' for an upcoming cold spell  accompanied by gusty wind chill readings - preceded by a period of rain during the weekend.

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much change from the latest few days. A few clouds off and on, even a light ,  isolated shower perhaps. Temperatures running above average with lows near the beaches in the upper 60Fs to near 70F and afternoon highs upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs (interior).

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary to work south from North Florida into Central Florida to near I-4. Guidance is a bit shaky on exactly how far south it will get but appears it will reach South Central Florida by Thursday morning with a frontal passage across Central Direct close to day break. The boundary is extremely shallow; nonetheless, there will be wind shift and cooler air behind the boundary likely accompanied by increased cloud cover. 

 Slight chance of showers but the bigger story north of the boundary will be about a 8-10F temperature decrease for afternoon highs (Central/North). Sharp temperature gradient between the region north to south of boundary where highs will remain near 80F.

FRIDAY: Boundary continues to be located in the same general area as a mid-level 'impulse' rides along in the westerlies just above the deck to ride over the it  during the day and into the evening. So far, guidance advertises best rain chances North of I-4 during the day light hours. 

The Canadian Model advertised this to occur yesterday and the GFS has joined in to the prognosis. Both now showing that the better chance of larger rainfall totals perhaps even accompanied by elevated thunder appears will occur (as of now at least) across Central and South Central Florida after sunset Friday evening through the night into very early Saturday.

If the scenario paints out as shown , it will be rare bird to be getting thunder, for the temperatures during all of this 'rain' (assuming this occurs) will only be in the lower-mid 50Fs. GFS shows rainfall totals up to 1.50" (if not more) in the midst of all that. The impetus is very high bulk and speed shear through the mid-upper levels, over 60Kts at places accompanied by very cold air aloft.

Be thankful it won't be warm and unstable at the surface at the same time! Because if it were, this would be a 'big time' severe weather out-break set up; but alas, t'will be very very cool at the surface. If this were the Plains, maybe we'd be talking a hail chance, but not sure such a thing has ever happened like that in Florida before (cold weather, heavy rain, and 'hail'..that is).

SATURDAY- BEYOND: The front clears on Saturday followed by Gusty NW - NNW winds with highs perhaps only in the mid-upper 50Fs. Thus, the afternoon HIGHS will be nearly 10-15F degrees colder than our morning LOWS have been.  

SUNDAY MORNING looks also to be quite cool though it might warm into the lower-mid 60Fs in the afternoon, as wind decreases. Regardless, the worst is yet to come.

Beyond this time prepare for forecasts (such as on TV) to bounce around quite a bit, and to be hearing about the 'Polar Vortex' as it currently appears that area of low pressure is planning on setting camp up over the Northeastern Great Lakes region for quite some time. Chances are TV watchers are already hearing about it.

The end-result for Florida will be a 'difficult - to - time' succession of 'dry' frontal boundaries..boom boom boom. One after the other. 

I can count at least two more to follow during the week toward the following weekend. And be advised, 'IF" the current outlook stands, it gets colder before it gets warmer. 

Much cooler. Freezing so far is not foreseen for Central and South. but Far North Central Interior might see freezing temps come mid-late week after the second or third front pulls through, accompanied again by more gusty winds.

Temperatures along the immediate coast mid-late week 'might' be able to get into the mid 40Fs with gusty winds to-boot. But we'll see. There's time for guidance to shift around yet still, even significantly so.

In short, after early this coming Thursday things start to go down hill..then there is a good rain chance as it stands now at least sometime between mid-day Friday (North) through early Saturday morning.(Central/South Central)..and from there on ..it will be time to  'Shift  intto Winter-Gear '.

Increasing Cloud Cover / Shower Risk Central Today - Risk of Strong Storms Tuesday

On This Day , Last Year

There is a Risk that there will be thunderstorms, some potentially strong or even severe (?) come Tuesday, then again more rain-thunder chances on Thanksgiving Day, meanwhile:

TODAY: A cold front currently located near Ormond Beach stretching WSW toward Cedar Key along the west coast is slowly working south early this afternoon. Last hour an area near the Villages was reporting 'heavy rain'. In general  most areas will not see all that much today in rainfall if any, but not everyone will remain completely dry.

Cloud cover associated with the cold front is clearly discernible in satellite animation working south, now already having entered parts of North Central Florida as it works into Central from noon through mid-afternoon.

The front itself is still a way back and won't like make it to "Central Direct ' until near sunset. Wind immediately behind the boundary shifts to northerly with much cooler air that won't   be realized from Central Direct and south until after sunset southward toward midnight (far South Central/South Florida).

OVERNIGHT-MONDAY: Wind overnight will become NNE-NE heading toward sunrise. Areas at  the 'immediate' coast south of I-4, mainly Brevard and South will escape the brunt of the coolest of air associated with the front, likely not falling below the lower 60Fs whereas inland temps will range in the lower to mid-50Fs with the coolest air near Lake County and North where 40Fs will be realized. 

MONDAY: Wind during the day veers to ENE and almost east by day's end. Daytime highs will be similar to the past several days, in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Pattern shift quickly takes hold as  a Strong Upper Level Jet dive-bombs from Canada south to East Texas and into the far Western Gulf then begins to curve toward the NE, poised toward Florida. In the mid-levels the WSW Flow Aloft will carry some mid-level 'impulses' of energy (vorticity) in the steadily increasing WSW Flow aloft while surface wind remains E-ESE. 

Bulk shear of up to 50Kts,  500mb temperatures running a cold -12- -14C and 700MB running around 0C,  and surface based instability of up to 1000 J2/K2 (mainly south of I4) combined could result in some thunderstorms and other areas of heavy rainfall south of I-10. So far the 'best risk' of stronger storms (if any) appears to be near the Tampa Bay area toward North Brevard southward to North of Lake Okeechobee. beginning late morning Tuesday with the risk running into late afternoon if not even mid-evening..with the better risk along the West Central Coast - though anyone could be game at various locations and varying times. 

Soundings being forecast though, indicate there could be extensive upper level cloud cover which would greatly mitigate the severe threat, though not to say there might be some 'embedded' activity in all that cloud cover that could bear watching.

WEDNESDAY: As of now, looks like a break in the action as the Jet stream continues it race toward Florida. Timing is of great issue at this point however, so nothing is certain in regard to if it will or will not rain much of anywhere this day. For now will hold peace and watch once again for a more active Thanksgiving Thursday.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain , rain showers, or even thunderstorms while bulk shear aloft continues and cold upper level temperatures at 500mb easily below -10C and even 700MB running quite cold as well. It's too soon to say if there will again be a risk of severe or strong storms on Thursday, though for now suspect the bigger 'risk' day might well be Tuesday. 

Not a complete wash out for everyone, but for now not expecting to see much sun this day if any. Cold front to eventually make way and through the state Thursday evening.

FRIDAY-BEYOND: The outcome overall , when all is said and done, will be a complete shift of recent days in the wind fields at the surface. Instead of easterly winds we will be experiencing some refreshing westerlies . 

Temperatures do not look to be anything but climatically normal for this time of year with lows in the 50Fs and highs in the 70Fs.

GREAT BEYOND: Not much of a change in the longer run as winds eventually swing around to easterly well out in time and eventually more southerly. Granted , this is still a long way off, but the GFS is indicating that the last day or two of November into the First Week of December could see above normal temperatures with highs in the 80Fs; however,  previous model runs have shown just the reversal of such fortune, with much colder temperatures.

Will be interesting to see the outcome. The Climate CFSV2 model has been showing 'above to  near normal temperatures other than for a few brief non-consequential ,   cool downs well into mid-December; 'maybe' even well above normal the past few runs going into December (for what it's worth). Though do note, some runs (like the GFS) have been showing just the opposite.

Fall Phase II Begins Today - Winter Like Weather By Thanksgiving?

One Year Ago This Morning -  2016

TODAY: Weak frontal boundary characterized mainly by low and mid-level cloud cover and wind shift to northeast wind progressing southward will lay across South Central Florida near day break along a line near Central Brevard Country to south of Tampa Bay on the west coast. Just ahead to behind the boundary satellite imagery indicates what appears to be rather extensive cloud cover in the lower to mid-levels. There is no rain showing up along this boundary and none is anticipated but for perhaps later today for near St. Lucie - Palm Beach counties.

Wind behind the boundary is from the northeast gusting toward 20 mph and with cloud cover in the offing today, mainly for parts  of South Central Florida and northward, afternoon high temperatures will be inevitably cooler than the past few days other than for areas across South Florida where cloud cover will not be extensive and any affect from the dwindled boundary will be but hardly realized at all.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY: Some guidance indicates the chance of onshore moving rain-shower activity mainly for Indian River County northward toward Flagler County sometime after 2AM Saturday morning with the 4KM NAM model favoring Central - North Brevard to Volusia county initially.

What is to remain of the boundary either way will have lifted just a bit northward  but mainly above ground level. The surface boundary itself will have been fully absorbed into the synoptic scale high pressure area north of the state with little trace of its remains other than a moisture boundary.  No changes will be realized temperature/wind wise at the surface other than a bit of a veering more toward an ENE component. 

 Most guidance does indicate rain however, but exactly where is a tough call. Any rain that does fall would be 1/4" or less. All in all Saturday does not look like a wash-out anywhere, but cloud cover might continue to be a real bug-a-boo.

SUNDAY:  Sunday morning temperatures right near the coast will be closer to 70F (south of Daytona Beach) and cooler just a bit inland, but the bigger change and hence 'Fall Phase II" will be afternoon highs not reaching 80F (though some might see 80F from Vero and South) but more toward the middle-upper 70Fs depending on cloud cover. Chances for now favor upper 70Fs. 

Any rain-shower activity that might occur earlier on Saturday  will have worn thin and made history.

Otherwise, this day looks to be characterized by typically mid 'fall' like conditions of easterly to ENE wind and  little to no chance of rain -  cloud cover varying from scattered to perhaps a bit cloudy at times. 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Decreasing cloud cover but not much warmer with highs remaining in the 70Fs . Coolest locations in the morning inland from the immediate east coast (where closer to 70F will be realized). 

WEDNESDAY: Another back door front presses down the state either later Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will only serve to re-enforce the air mass already in place. 

Rain chance  with this boundary appears to be even lower than with the one currently at hand. The difference with this boundary is that   cooler morning lows might be realized  along the immediate coast (lower-mid 60Fs and 50Fs inland).  

Those temperatures look very close to being 'here to stay' for the most part, though the GFS might be over-dramatizing the situation a bit (which would be typical for that model). 

Overall it looks like 80Fs will be increasingly few and far between and hence the 'Fall Phase II" period.

BEYOND:  The current trend is for continued cooler with this second boundary's passage, but with a lighter (less breezy conditions) wind from more of a northerly component come mid-late week. 

 The GFS is flopping around quite a bit lately heading toward the week of Thanksgiving and in parallel is the Climate CFSV2 model showing a similar picture.

 That being, not one , but several cold air intrusions beginning any time from around Tuesday of the week  of Thanksgiving to the day after Thanksgiving, and in both cases , it just goes downhill from there. 

By cold is meant  widespread morning lows in the 40Fs if not some 30Fs accompanied by the expected gusty winds (and wind chill factor) that herald in  'goodbye to fall'.   

 How reliable is that portion of the outlook? Not necessarily very, but then again: 

The CFSV2 was showing what the blogger would consider the 'typical first cold blast of the winter season' to occur during the first week of December (two days ago). History has shown that in many years the period between the 4th - 8th of December might be seen as a 'classic time frame' for that first true 'wintry feeling' cold air mass to intrude into and across the state. Such abrupt changes take a bit of getting accustomed to as coats suddenly get hauled out of hibernation.

However, the last run as of last night suddenly shifted that to Tuesday of the week of Thanksgiving, though the GFS which was showing something similar suddenly backed off. These discrepancies indicate the increasing disparities and uncertainty in long  range forecast model skill. 

Both of them  attribute any said wintry blast'  to a very large area of low pressure, and re-enforcements to it,  forming over the Eastern Great lakes and into Northeast states  with nowhere for the low to go but sit in place and deepen as it extends well into the Deep South -- with Florida being on the receiving end of air flowing southward along the back side of 'said prognosed region of blocked low pressure'.

For now, such speculation could well change.  On the other hand, one way or another, days ahead for those who favor truly cooler to colder dry weather is showing up on the horizon, if not for now, only hypothetically.

November 23, 2016