Very Pleasant Through Thursday

Today's post will be brief as there is little in the 'remotely significant' department to allude to. The cold front passed through last night, and the result is noticeable this morning with a temperature in the pre-dawn hours in the upper 50s most areas. Melbourne seems to be the exception as they are in the low-50s. Regardless, today should be characterized by off and on high cirrus clouds ('mares tails') and a light west wind. Not sure we'll reach 70s degrees today, but with enough sun and light winds it doesn't really matter much.

 

Tomorrow will likely start out a tad cooler under essentially calm wind as high pressure at the surface will be encompassing the peninsula. We might have to be on the watch for patchy fog, but that would be of little consequence and probably unbeknownst to most. The wind remain very light all day with a high near 70.

 

The warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through Thursday, as do some clouds. But all in all it will be a quiet first 3 days of the work week, at least. The bug-a-boo (where it can get interesting) begins Thursday. Current thinking is that there's a good chance of showers or perhaps thunderstorms (some strong) Thursday afternoon. However, if subsequent model runs do what this last one did, the guilty party (generating storm system) might track too far north for it to have much more than minimal impact on the area. This yet to be developing situation will be monitored in the coming days.

 

For now, though, our weather will be dictated by a zonal southern branch jet which is flowing along overhead mainly just to the latitudinal north of us aloft...and high pressure stretched across the northern Gulf of Mexico at the surface and mid-levels. The main thing to be watched in coming days is just how much of a crimp in the jet stream the next system can create. The more 'crimping' we get...the more affect we'll feel from the next in the circus train of systems coming in from Southern California. Yes, Southern California is in for their 10 days of annual weather. The other 355 days there are totally uneventful. If one likes it quiet weatherwise then San Diego is the place for you (other than these 10 days).

 

Warmer days here in the mid-upper 70s to begin Wednesday through Saturday regardless...even if the rain chances currently being portrayed verify. No big cool down anywhere on or beyond the horizon.

 

SW Wind Ushers Warmer East Coast Today

Images: Temperature plot shows the warm result of non-ocean winds, dry air precedes cold front, solid zonal southern branch jet for a week ahead

Things turned out even rosier than thought yesterday. As expected, the prefrontal trough went through this area with literally no fanfare...not even a drop of rain in the gauge. This was a tough call as the official offices were advertising possible tornado weather. Sometimes holding hard to the gun and not pulling the trigger pays off -- sometimes. Yesterday was very cool here along the beach temperature wise, in fact it was cooler here than most locales in the Panhandle. Such is not to be the case today. The 'cold front' (if you want to call it that) has yet to enter the picture ...as can be seen by the hand drawn depictions above. The wind has shifted to a more westerly component which is across land and not cold ocean waters. As a result the temperature has risen 7 degrees between 2am and 6am in the process, whereas on the west side of the state (now under the influence of the chillier Gulf of Mexico waters) the temperature has held steady or fallen. Such will be the course of the day throughout as well.

Today: Expect the morning to start out cloudy with warm and somewhat gusty SW winds (all day) with the temperature getting to be the warmest we've seen on this side of the state since the New Year reaching into the mid-upper 70s. The winds will be tricky out there so be careful when crossing the causeways and particularly if you're planning any boating activities. High pressure is approaching from the western Gulf during the next 24 hours, and the closer it gets the more the wind will subside and gradually veer to a more westerly direction and eventually a light NW direction then near calm Tuesday morning. Cloudy skies this morning should yield to scattered mid-level clouds by afternoon under otherwise abundant sunshine as I believe much of the cloudiness will mix out with heating along with the ensuing dry air as indicated by the attached water vapor imagery. (the dry air is that red color)

Monday-Late Wednesday: This period will be completely uneventful with little to write or be concerned about. Our weather will be solely dictated by the strong latitudinal zonal jet stream flow (as shown) aloft and high pressure at the lower levels. Monday and Tuesday look to be supreme! About the only thing worth mentioning is that along with the zonal flow comes high level jet stream cirrus...which is already being observed entering Old Mexico and headed our way. By later Tuesday, as high pressure moves off the east coast, the wind will swing around to a somewhat easterly component (albeit light) which will tamper down afternoon high temperatures ...especially east of US1. That, in combination with periods of enhanced cirrus, could make it feel just a tad below totally comfortable. Complain, complain. Give me something to gripe about it , and I'll grab it and run. Otherwise, nothing to complain about.

Thursday-Friday: The first in a serious of a 'mile long train' of systems being ejected out of a huge circus of Pacific systems will develop along the southern branch jet and pass through with a quick shot of rain showers. Thunder is highly questionable as is the timing of exactly when this 'quickie' will pass, given it's so far out and already there is disparity among the models (as one would expect anyway). They are currently showing Thursday, but the ECMWF is already slower than that which I tend to believe, given how it handled this last system (good bye system). All in all, there is no major system to affect our area for the next 7-10 days. Temperature wise we will be hanging right around, if not a tad above, normal. Am I hearing THAT right?!

Cool mornings, pleasant afternoons to reign supreme more or less all week. Just might want to keep an ear perked beginning Wednesday night to see what's what in the weather department. One thing's for sure, we can pack away the gloves and scarves for a while. Once we make it through the next month, we're pretty much in the clear for any prolonged cold spell for the winter of 2010.

Severe Weather Potential Increasing

As a prelude to today's post, be advised that the Storm Prediction Center
has placed all of Central Florida under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather
later this evening into the post-midnight hours. Wind fields should be
supportive of sustained severe thunderstorms and possibly supercell storms.
Increasing upper level diffluence should yield a conditional threat for
isolated tornadoes as well. Thinking is that as the system holds off until
later to enter the area that the air mass over the region will have ample
time to continue to destabilize. (My addition: The fly in the ointment for
the immediate east coast will be the ocean waters...however, by midnight
this may not make much of a difference as all areas will have cooled
equally, plus the fact that the wind will not have nearly the 'coming off
the ocean' trajectory.)

Impending Doom or a "Poker Face"?

(Imagery: current radar showing warm front, surface plot showing fronts, forecast plot for 1pm from the RUC Model).

The bane of our existence has finally formulated since yesterday (the Gulf Low Pressure System) and is clearly evident both on radar and satellite imagery as a morphing blob of rain and clouds. There still remains some disparities with the timing of this system as it approaches within ear-shot of East Central Florida but at this point the outlier that really sticks out is the GFS and is therefore being disregarded, as far as timing is concerned.

Downstream from the system in the Gulf mid and upper level cloudiness is gradually spreading its shield this way, and expect this trend to continue for the next 24 hours. I believe the warm front is about right on top of us as of this writing, as can be seen in several of the frontal position depictions that are included above. There is a band of rain showers that show up nicely on radar loops that are shifting north which I believe is the developing surface warm front.

Today: The low will continue to develop today and start to take a more northward heading toward the Florida Panhandle. A prefrontal trough (as shown on the forecast RUC plot for 1pm today) will develop just ahead of the 'cold front'. Winds will be gusty from the SE today and gradually veer to a more due south component by sunset under cloudy skies and 'warm' temperatures. The temperature right along the coast won't be nearly as warm as inland though due to its close proximity to the chilly Atlantic waters. With passage of the warm front the warm sector will thicken as mid-level jet cores approach by mid-late afternoon. However, even with the PWATS (precipitable water values) up to over an inch, winds gaining some nice low level shear, and loss of capping I do not believe this will be enough to squelch the curse of the Cold Water Sea God. I think he looks a lot like "Lady Gaga" with a "Poker Face" (now that would be a sight)......trying to make us think severe weather could come our way. I'm still opting for the 'no severe' weather call...despite what I'm reading in some of the forecast discussions from various official offices. So be advised: This is just my take. Always be prepared for severe weather in cases such as what could potentially happen with this developing scenario. Dealing with this entire storm system, and I'm sure the models would agree, has been nothing but a "Bad Romance".

Rain today? Low end to none, especially along the coast. Best chances at this time will be limited to the west half of the state early in the period where such areas are not affected by the squelching effects of the cool, marine air. Despite the clouds around, temperatures away from the coast, especially west of US1, will feel the warmth by about 5 degrees - - at least --over the coast.

Tonight: I'm going to put the restraining order on any rain/storm activity once again. It's so tempting to say it will dump buckets with so many elements in place, and when in fact you can look at radar and see it out there so close one can smell it, but the "hold" button is pressed and probably won't be released until after sunrise Sunday. That's not to say that some errant shower couldn't pass at just about anytime, so if planning outdoor activities this afternoon and especially this evening it is advised to have an umbrella handy. Consider it a free insurance policy against getting the hair wet (like it will matter with all the wind out there). Maybe the most vain of individuals deserve a dunking, but none that I know.

Late Night into Sunday Morning: This is the period that the pre-frontal trough, or rather what's left of it, will traverse the area. As noted yesterday, with the current projections of the surface low which by now will be moving NNE into Eastern Tennessee so far displaced from our locale, the only thing going for us at this hour will be shear as instability will be minimized. I'm not expecting even thunder at this point, but rather a stretched out band of light-moderate rain/rain showers. By the time it gets here it may have fizzled altogether and simply greet us with another cloud layer embedded in there somewhere.

Mid-Sunday Morning/Late Afternoon: The actual front itself will be traversing the entire region and will be accompanied by rain showers and healthy SSW-SW winds. Any heavier rain shower may transport stronger gusts to ground level...but not of severe strength. Numerical models are spitting out possible chances of rain as high as 85 percent with most focusing around the 70-75 percent chance. So suffice it to so ...it will rain; however, due to the fast motion of shower activity I wouldn't expect to see significant rainfall accumulations in any one given area with maybe a rare, unforeseen exception.

Late Sunday Night/Monday: Rain, wind, clouds, ad naseum....will be clearing the area over night giving birth to an entirely different day by noon Monday. By this time the wind will be from the west and decreasing, and we'll feel the drying trend in atmospheric moisture as the day plugs along. It will feel refreshing.

Gulf Storm Poses Problemmatic Prediciton

Morning data shows there is an inverted trough just off the coast. This can be seen visually via the black and white infrared satellite image also shown.

The pendulum has finally begun to swing even more in our favor for making the recent cold spell a faded memory. The last embers (dry air) should be all but gone by mid-afternoon as onshore flow advects low level moist air in from the Atlantic. Don' t believe that inverted trough, which normally could produce a spike in better rain chances along the East Central Coast (summer/fall) will produce anything more than clouds as there is a low level subsidence inversion in place (which limits low level vertical upward motion required for rain generation). It doesn't appear that it will fully breakdown until early tomorrow morning as low-level warm air advection more assuredly occurs. By that time the air mass over us will be fully modified, so with the inversion gone coastal sprinkles are not out of the question. We could see a few drops on the windshield today, but at this time it appears that would be the 'worst' of it.

The low level pressure system that has been the story of the week is actually now materializing in the far western Gulf Of Mexico. I was beginning to wonder if it ever would. So now the million dollar question is twofold: 1) How fast will it development and move east-ENE ward; (2) just exactly how far south will it stay before taking a more northerly trajectory toward the mid-Atlantic states?

With such variability STILL occurring between the models, which is somewhat unusual so close to curtain call, the question still remains: Will there be any severe weather here?! As stated yesterday, I'm leaving this chance at the very low end until something more definitive rears its face.

Current thinking regardless: Believe the surface low will move a little too far north of Central Florida --taking the strongest dynamics and shear further into the panhandle and southeast Georgia. Meanwhile, a secondary pocket of more unstable air will remain over the keys and extreme South Florida where better instability will pond - - leaving Central Florida in a 'hole' of only light-moderate rain for this event. And timing, gee whiz, that sure has been a stickler. Current thinking now is all the weather associated with this system will now occur from overnight Saturday into most if not all of the daylight hours Sunday. And it will occur here in the form of solid cloud cover with light rain and intermittent moderate rain. No thunder.

Now, that's not to say it couldn't shower just about anytime Saturday, it just would be of very low coverage and intensity/duration.

Like yesterday, because there is still so much uncertainty in the models so close to the frying pan this may all very well change. But for consistency's sake I'm holding fast to yesterday's discussion until something more definitive provides reason to stray.

After Sunday: The front, if there ever actually is one, will be stretched through as high pressure builds in across the northern Gulf. This is not a polar air mass, if anything this system is harbinger of a change in the air mass we've been seeing over the area the past 2-plus weeks. It is actually bringing with it, given its origins from Old Mexico, a much more seasonal air mass with normal temperatures. Meaning highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid-50s. No rain for at least 4 days. Cloud coverage during this time may become an issue, but given we haven't even gotten this bugger out our system yet we can leave that discussion for a more appropriate time.

Good Riddance Cold Weather

(Image depicts expected frontal positions - courtesy of the NAM - annotations are mine)

The highlight for today already is that the temperature never fell below 50 degrees on my porch last night; however, it appears that pretty much everyone else fell at least into the mid-40s so this was the exception and definitely not the rule. Regardless, everyone will be catching up to being within equi-range by mid-morning after full sunshine provides ample heating across all of Central Florida.

Today: Except the sky to be partly cloudy with occasionally a thin, but barely worth noting, overcast. For the most part, unless one looks up to notice it won't make a difference because what the big news for the day is will be the temperature. Don't think we'll quite see 70 degrees yet, but with the way it's been lately upper 60s will fit the bill just fine. I'll probably change costume and resume wearing shorts again by noontime, as we won't be seeing it get appreciably cooler for quite some time. Good bye long, uncomfortable long pants! No rain chance.

Friday: This day will be a good 5-10 degrees warmer for everyone once again as winds will have attained their onshore component all day Thursday and through the night. ISince this morning could make it to only 51 here --that might be indicative of how warm it could be as far west as Merritt Island Friday morning. Further west near US-1 you'll probably still see mid-upper 40s but only during the late night to very early morning hours. Sky cover will again be partly cloudy with occasional cloudy spurts of little impact nature. Chances for a sprinkle by late in the day are remote, but thought I'd throw them in for good measure - but only a sprinkle.

Saturday: The warmest day of our new found friend (do you realize we've been well below normal temperature wise since the New Year began:?). And my friend, your warmth is ever so welcomed even if it means there could be more clouds. At this point, who cares? The devil's in the cold air, and I say bury him with a hatchet and pack the dirt down hard. Throw in a black thorned rose for good measure. R.I.P.

Things become a little more problematic as we head into the mid-late afternoon hours of Saturday. The wind by this time will be veering from SE toward the SSW and increasing...and oh how sweet that will be. No longer coming off the ocean the warm air will really be getting advected across all locales -- blow a kiss and raise the arms in praise. I'm smiling now.

The problem though, is that rain chances will be ever so increasing but still not a widespread onslaught. As shown by the NAM depicted forecast for 7pm Saturday night, a prefrontal trough will be approaching Tampa Bay , and I'd expect that a very rapidly developing line of rain showers with perhaps some embedded thunder will be accompanying that line accordingly. This is where the real rain chances begin. It must be noted that timing of this system has been a major thorn-in-the-side since the get go, so if anything changes as far as timing goes I'd expect this to occur even later (rather than sooner) as shown All in all though, by 10-midnight Saturday night, at this point, all of Central Florida should be under rain at some level or another of intensity. As far as severe weather goes - - despite how cool looking this system will be and with all that's coming together to formulate it -- I don't think there will be any at this point. That can always change (just remember this is still nearly 3 days away). Naturally, if things look more appreciably favorable for more intense weather mention of that will be made here along with your widely available media outlets. In other words, I'm not hanging up the hat yet on that possibility.

Sunday: Again, assuming the timing of this thing is close to what is being thought for this writing (can't storm systems get a clock or something -- don't they know we have schedules to meet and things to do?) rain will continue until about noon time. But get this, no big temperature drop at all. We'll remain comfortable by the standards of this time of year. Now, if it were summer right now we'd be freezing under these same conditions (a good 20 degrees colder than what we see in July). Kind of hard to imagine.

Monday and points on: Dry with temperatures remaining very close to seasonal norms, meaning basically low of 50 and high of 70. The coast will be quite a bit warmer overnight into the early mornings, whereas from Merritt Island and points west the afternoons will be appreciably warmer than the coast. It all comes out even in the wash. There will be yet another storm system developing and approaching the area by late in the week but for real? That is beyond the scope of my crystal ball. Pass the Windex.

"Six Degrees of Separation..." (5 More Tomorrow

Photo: Sunrise this morning off Harrison Ave., Cape Canaveral, FL)

Not surprisingly, the thaw has begun. We hung a full 6 degrees warmer last night than previous mornings and bottomed out at 43 degrees here. Warm enough to go to some sunrise photos. Yes, perhaps the guillotine won't be needed as referred to yesterday. And it just gets better from here, as we may be even 5 degrees warmer Thursday morning.

Thursday - Friday: This period will be characterized with winds finally swinging around to the NE-E as high pressure moves east across the Deep South and a developing storm system begins to take shape in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. As a result, night time lows will continue to warm as will the afternoons; however, do not believe the immediate coast will as warm as numerical model guidance suggests due to the fact that, last I looked, the ocean temperature was around 49 degrees (brrr...to toe dipping in those iceberg waters here). Regardless, both days will be progressively warmer than the previous. During this time will introduce some high level cirrus beginning to overspread the region as well as some coastal low level stratocumulus clouds. Models are actually showing rainshowers right along the Cape, but I do not believe that scenario will evolve due to both the fact there is a lot of moist recovery to be done as well as the fact that the ocean waters are now so cold after this last 'deep freeze'.

Saturday: It should be noted that with every consecutive model run, the yet to evolve storm system forms progressively later and thus affects our area later. Thus, Saturday should not be the total washout as previously forethought. It will be cloudy and even warmer (in fact, the warmest of all the days we've seen or will see for a while). There could be some scattered showers near the coast by this time as air mass modification will have been in affect for a solid 24 hours by then). The chance of showers, particularly in Eastern Brevard, will remain throughout the day. There is a chance that a prefrontal band of thunderstorms (perhaps severe) could enter the picture shortly after sunset Saturday. But the crux of rain will occur during the dark hours into early Sunday Morning.

As noted earlier, model runs have been lagging with each run...so the time-frame for all the previous mentioned events may end up occurring even later (i.e., the real rains do not arrive until nearly sunrise Sunday if this trend continues).

After the front/storms: No big temperature drops. In fact, they should just hang right around normal for this time of year with lows near 50 and highs near 70 for quite some time. Dry rain wise. FINALLY!

Clear as a Frozen Bell - We Need a Thaw!

(Photo taken at the beach this morning in Canaveral)

Okay, the joke is over. Truly it can't be this cold again for what seems has been a 'train of consequences' mornings. Cape Canaveral is 36 degrees on the porch though nearby locations in Central Florida are at the freezing mark or just above it. If that's not bad enough, Tallahassee is 19F at 6am...being the coldest city anywhere in the entire Southeast quadrant of the U.S. that I could find. Will this torture ever end? Just put us on the guillotine and put us out our misery.

The good news (and there is some) is that it will end...just one more really cold one to go though first. Actually, another cold front is going to go through tonight near midnight to reinforce what we already have in place...but the warming thaw is very close to the horizon now. By Thursday morning the immediate coast could be a full 10 degrees warmer than those of recent days and it keeps getting better from there. Can't speak for those further west though (sorry).

A very general break down of temperatures for the next week shows the immediate coast to have low temperatures once again in the upper 30s Wednesday morning, then the next two mornings 10-15 degrees warmer, then the next 2-3 after that up to another 5-10 degrees warmer than that.

Hold on because today will be the last cold round the clock day. By Thursday we will all be very close to the 60 mark in the afternoon (probably a little above it)...and from Friday-Monday of next week the high will general be within the 70 degree mark with the exception of Saturday which could be even 5 degrees warmer than that. Get the trend? :-)!!

Fly in the ointment: with each day it gets warmer, so will the clouds increase along with the chance of rain. We could be totally cloudy all weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Strong storms A-Brewin'? Perhaps for Saturday from sunrise to sunset. There still appears to be a severe weather threat for much of Saturday; however, lack of instability and increasingly unidirectional winds seems to be becoming a negative factor. As of last night, it appears a very slow moving warm frontal boundary will be established across Central Florida by the early morning hours of Saturday, but this could result in simply a long term rain event...some of which may be heavy at times. The surface low will simply be too far away in the Gulf of Mexico to aid in giving any rain chances the additional "boost" required for good storm generation.

At this point, I wouldn't plan on going to Disney World or the Water parks (?) on Saturday as it could be a very rainy day for us all in Central Florida. But hey, at least it won't be freezing cold.

For today and tomorrow though it appears the sky will be clear as a bell -- all day both days. We really shouldn't start to see any clouds to fill our lives until Thursday and from that point on everything goes does hill pretty fast sky wise. Uphill temperature wise. Note: Due to the degree of variation in various model solutions and timing of an incoming consequences of disturbed weather to affect the area, this forecast discussion will most assuredly require some major revamping by the time tomorrow's post is made.

Hold on, spring is only..ummm...2 1/2 months away is it? Boo Hiss!!

Time for the Thaw To Slowly Begin Today

Show above is how we spent the day Saturday and Sunday here In Cape Canaveral :-)

Finally, it's going to start a VERY slow warm up today. As of this typing it is 37 degrees in Cape Canaveral, although last I looked Crestview was around 17F (does that place count as Florida though?). Today and tomorrow though we will inch ever closer to the 60 degree mark.

Then we'll be flirting with the upper 60s both Wednesday and Thursday. Than low 70s for Friday and Saturday. At least the sun will be out almost entirely though up until that time.

The fun part begins by late Friday as a surface low forms in the east Gulf with a nice 300mb jet in accompaniment which at this time we will be under the entrance region by noon Saturday. It appearances late afternoon Friday through mid afternoon Saturday to be our best changes of us being in at least a severe thunderstorm watch box...particularly from a Vero Beach to Sarasota line and points north.

We did get some sleet here on a number of occasions in Cape Canaveral on Saturday. What a day that was. One of worst in a many winters of recent years.

A "Blue Moon" and Full Cold..Mix'n Match

Pictured above is the blue moon at 7am this morning. What a sight!

Have to admit that I've taken verbiage from Melbourne's local area forecast to express the upcoming cold weather later in this post...as if it wasn't already here...IT GETS WORSE though. I've taken their words and put them to 'plain English'...and added a touch of flavor and enhancement (have you ever used the flavoring called "Accent"?)...

It's 44 degrees on the porch right now. Lola went outside, but came right back in. Don't think she likes the cold pavement on the pads of her paws. Holding fast to the previous thoughts that we won't see the 60 degree line for a WEEK! There are no other aspects in the meteorological realm to allude to other than temperatures, and I mean (really)..just how much can one write about that...Give Me Time however.

Here goes for our mid-term: SUN-WED...A broad eastern U.S. trough that extends from Canada the whole way south to Florida will be reinforced (I think this was mentioned a couple of posts ago) by several shortwaves (disturbances). We will remain dry however..what will be re-enforced, like we need it, will be the cold air..until at least Wednesday. For now..I'm seeing even the Friday beyond! This is straight out of Melbourne's mouth. I couldn't have put it any more eloquently " . RIDGE AXIS PENETRATES DOWN THE PENINSULA WED...POSSIBLY SETTING UP THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING MORNING OF THIS EVENT. WILL LIKELY REQUIRE FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR LARGE PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SPECIFIC DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL NIGHTS MINS AND DURATION BELOW FREEZING WILL BE PROVIDED A DAY IN ADVANCE. "

Did you get that? And if it's going to be that cold on Wednesday which for heaven's sake is still 4 days away...imagine how many days of cold are to be endured before even that time arrives.

The "High Speed Dirt" take on all of this is..BRING ON THE SNOW...but that won't happen..but guess what..The Weather Channel is pumping Florida and the Great Lakes early this Saturday morning. Not too often one hears about the Florida Cold. As long as it's going to do it..then BRING IT ON. Let's get over this and move on. The thing that is scary to me though, is just exactly what February will bring. Just touching on it now..but it 'could' be a big tornado year for Central or South Florida. Seems weird to be talking tornadoes while having to wear sweaters, socks, shoes, long pants, having the heat on, hot chocolate, bon-fires, fireplaces, the space heater, and popping around all wrapped up in bubble wrap (a good heat preserver)...but yes, we'll see. This prolonged cold spell could put a major crimp on the atmosphere's style though as it will take some major changes for it to re-coupe.

TODAY and the short-term: No 60 degrees, clear to partly cloudy, lightish wind but any wind not comfortable. Lows along the coast in the low 40s and upper 30s elsewhere. But progressively as we work into the mid-term..subtract 5 degrees from the morning lows...and get psyched or prepare yourself. It's really not all that bad. Hey, we've just joined the masses (the reast of the country). It's not the end of the world as we know it...But if the world were going to end ..I'd rather have it be from a heat wave...hmm..that's a thought..if the world were going to end..by what means would you prefer it to be?..

"The Blob"

Shown is the current radar image and latest surface analysis. "The Blob" is just off Florida's West Coast and steadily approaching.

Phase I of the double barrel frontal system has passed, providing 0.15 inches of rain at my place. The much more aggressive system and main cold front is steadily approaching on schedule...wish I could buy a ticket and take a ride along with it way south. As you can see from the other graphic..there's a train of weak low pressure system riding along the frontal boundary..(I drew those fronts and lows in). The main low is producing quite a bit of rain and even some lightning...so a rumble of thunder around noon time (specifics to follow) is not out of the question.

TODAY: The timing is PERFECT! (so what does that mean?) Phase I has passed. Phase II (the second 'boundary') approaching. I have noticed a trend over the past hour (it is now 9:23am) of some isolated heavier 'mini heavy-showers' developing ahead of "The Blob"...which is steadily progressing in a more or less eastward fashion. Some of these might become lightning producers as we work toward noon. But the main thing to watch for, believe it or not..is strong wind gusts near 40mph if not more as we work toward noon and the micro-storms formulate and progressively work east. Nasty little suckers they might be. But VERY isolated...the gremlins you could say.

The TIMING: It appears "The Blob" and company will be arriving almost right at max-heating, or in today's case, highest sun angle. This will be between 11:45am to 2pm. Assuming it holds together....(sort of a Big "IF")...anywhere from Stuart to Daytona on on the east coast of the peninsula could experience a good period of moderate rain with intermittent heavy spurts...all in all though..due to the progressive nature of the system..rainfall totals won't be anything worth noting except in the old rain gauge. BUT, there is the chance of thunder (some of those cells (rain storms) on radar look suspicious..and with the strong low level winds we have just..and I do mean JUST over our heads..any heavy downpour will transport, or drag down, those winds to the surface (ground level...where we are at..:0).

In any case (cutting to the point)...if one of these per chance downbursts happens to bless you..it could get 'super windy' for a brief time..in the severe category possibly..in fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, Oklahoma has much of the peninsula 'outlooked' in a "See Text"...in other words, the set up is worth mentioning, as has just been done here.

But the even bigger and more affirmative story, which to me equates to the end of the earth as we know it, is the cold air. Suffice it to say, and I know I've hammered this to death the past couple of days, get your Snuggie, Blankie, Whateverie...that keeps you warm..prepped. Personally, I guess we're forced here to actually wear socks and shoes..and long pants?..GASP!

The main front to go through in the 1:30Pm -3:30pm time frame..everyone except for maybe Lake Okeechobee and points south should be cleared of the front by 6:00pm. Temperatures on the west coast of the state really won't be much different as has been the case the past couple of days when we had relatively calm winds. We'll get to "share the wealth" in other words.

This front will be ushered in with a good cool blast, but the temperature drop probably won't be as rapid as was 'threatened' yesterday. The big drop will happen though in classy fashion..heralding a prolonged period of sub-normal-standard-acceptable-tolerable-ad nauseous temperatures. In other words, it will be colder than what one would expect for this time of year.

TUESDAY MORNING: Yup, right now..you'd think by then we'd be warming up right? Alas, such is not to be the case. This system means business..and business is good. We could actually see frrrreeeezzzzzing along the coast. Just a possibility....I won't believe it until the evil whites of its eyes is evident. So that's still a few days away.

Before then: Tomorrow morning thru Monday..Lows in the low-mid 40s..colder pockets in the upper 30s...highs near 58. Don't know if we'll ever see the old mercury in the thermometer get above the 60 degree line..but I bet it will on my sun/wind protected porch. Otherwise, it will feel very cool. Dress accordingly...for the next week. I wonder if this will be "our winter" for the season?

Long Term Cold To Bring in The New Year

It won't be as cold as this day shown from my apartment in Utah in 1985 though. I went for a 10 mile run after taking this photo....

(Today's weather conditions are referred to in later paragraphs..Facebookers ( click read on). Want to refer to the 'cold' stuff first as a prelim in these first paragraphs.

Friday Through Friday Night... the ECM/UKM/NAM forecast models are slightly slower with the timing of the upcoming MAJOR cold frontal passage---diverging from the GFS. But I'm In agreement with all (with a minor timing differentation), but what it all amounts to in the long run is that rapid Southeastward acceleration of the boundary (front) during the day on New Years is a given as a strong coastal low pressure system literally 'bombs out' over the Western Atlantic off New Jersey ....another guarantee (have fun..... J "T" C)!! . Any shower activity that materializes (which is becoming lesser with time during the mid-night to late afternoon hours of the New Year Day) will rapidly translate southeast and out of the picture. Cold Air Advection will RAPIDLY ensue behind the cold fronts passage.

In other words...it's going to get cold FAST. We can expect a good 15 degree temperature drop within the first 2 hours of cold frontal passage..which at this time appears to be around the 10am-2pm time frame. But if the lagging trend continues as portrayed by previous, consecutive model runs since Monday..it might be more like a 2-5pm time frame (but I really don't expect that). It won't take a "weather man to know"..at the first hints of a stronger wind, and much cooler air swipping away your "good hair day"..You'll know.."He's Baaaack!".

Regardless of either and/or/ but ..., by 6pm in the pre-sunset hours we're going to know that winter has arrived with gnashing teeth accompanied by WNW to NW winds gusting to about 24 mph. NO FUN! Boo..hiss...and Beyond Comprehension. HaHa..you'd think we're in for a blizzard!!

And old man winter is here to stay too...rain chances though, after late Friday, will be nil for a week at least...as will warm air. The upper level polar vortex will rotate around the great NE U.S. *just like it did all summer by the way: and eject sporadic pockets of upper level energy down its base and across the U.S. Deep South East for a sequential period of days providing cold air "reinforcements"..(in come the troops)..and that coupled with a strong Southern Branch Jet "Streaming" just to the south of us or over us...will not only generate much below normal temperatures..but periods of mid and upper level cloud cover as accompaniment. Sometimes I just hate El Nino winters.

For now..expect today to be very comfortable with a high in the mid-70s and a land breeze (our saving grace from any wind that could come off the ocean's 67, if not cooler, temperature). But clouds will be on the increase as a gift from the mid and upper level winds that will propogate clouds in ahead of the developing situation (note that I didn't refer to 'it' as a storm)...although some cloud breaks can't be disregarded as a genuine possibility.

Nothing becomes to exceptionally affirmative (forecast wise) until New Year's Day Break whence we should be affirmatively be consumed by clouds and the approaching cold frontal boundary. Rain chances in the models I believe are way over done..some folks might not get rain at all..others might get totals up to a quarter inch.

The major point to made for this post is..prepare for a LONG DURATION VERY COOL TO COLD EVENT (contingent upon what considers cold of course). If you like a high temperature around 58 degrees and a low around 44 then jump with glee. Break out the clothing reserved for such occasions..why not..it can be fun and stylish :-)

It will be colder on some upcoming mornings beyond the scope of this post..especially away from the coast..as there will be some flunctuations based on the timing of particulars that will materialize at free will as the vortex gives birth to sub-vortexes that will rotate around the base of the trough (hovering over the southeast United States..including Florida) causing it to sporadically dig a tad further south and thus allow the thickness values between 1000mb-500mb layer to decrease, ...AKA colder air to penetrate.. anything of significant, forecastable influence astray from what has already been written will be alluded to in later posts.

Thanks for your help National Weather Service, Melbourne. You pulled the words right out of my gut in your forecast discussions (the REAL SOURCE for our local weather)..so I could put them to virtual paper! You guyz rock.

It's "True, Blue, at 72"..What A Day!

What not a better time to muse on something warm, cuddly and cute? One has to be in a good mood today if in East Central Florida (not discounting personal, ever so near, matters).. The weather simply does not get any better than this.

It might be even warmer now (after this post)...and it sure is dry too. Did you notice how dry it is? Any chance of one of those renigade rainshowers that, yes, are off shore just beyond the horizon reaching shore, is nil. There was a proplexity in yesterday's forecast that even threw the National Weathe Service through a momentary loop..that being the onshore flow never developed. Instead, a weak inverted trough (induced by the Gulf Stream Waters at the lowest atmospheric levels)..formed under which the immediate coast is right on the axis of. Winds are light and variable all around..but inevitably a light onshore flow ensues solely as a typcial seabreeze for the same reasons we see one in the the summer (warmer land mass, cooler ocean = sea breeze) due to rising air mass replacement from land to sea.

Despite all this, our temperature is warming oh so nice. It's so comfortable out there I can hardly stand it! They just don't "mak'm like they used to". And that fact is going to be definitely reaffirmed in the very, not so distant, future. Welcome Old Man Winter..because here he comes...and he doesn't have bells on his toes either. He's got Fangs!

I'm not going to mention what the Weather Service or Weather Channel are saying because , quite frankly, I haven't even looked! TV has not been on all day..including the pre-sunrise hours, but I will say that this script is a bit off from I expect is being publized on the main stream; therefore, check up on those resources to get the "official" (the National Weather Service being thus). I've just been too busy listening to music and enjoying just a few friendship phone calls and laying low...

Through today into tonight: A brief swath of mid-low level clouds to pass over the IMMEDIATE coastal communities between 4-6pm.. otherwise cloud free/rain free (regardless) as the previously suppositioned deep on-shore flow will not exist to transport showers to the land mass.

Picture This Mentally: As we go into the evening and overnight hours the wind at the lower and mid-levels will become south to SSW..preventing any off shore showers to translate to the coastal communties..staying within arm's reach offshore. Thursday is going to be a pretty decent day for the most part is the current train of thought (and which is where the disparity lies with the majority). We will very likely see an increase in at first high level clouds which will be evident at sunrise..then more mid-level clouds as we progress past noon time. But it will be even warmer with a land breeze and no rain. In essence, tomorrow..especially the first half..could be "DA KINE" (minus pure, unadulterated sunshine).

Holding off on the chance of rain is yet another disparity. I think the rain will hold even longer than previously, or even more recently thought. The first chances will be shortly before sunrise New Year's Day...then all day a very good chance of rain with best chances betwee 10am-5pm New Year's Day. After that, clearing over night with a mostly sunny sunrise on the 2nd..very cool..and getting colder..for a WEEK! You read that right. I'll try updating in the more 'near-term' if conditions warrant..but as of this time there's no indication of any severe weather..but there is of especially windy weather to add to the wind chill. Just expect an offshore wind component developing by morning..continued dry for another day (not even sure what the 'masses' are saying about tommorow because I haven't checked). Happy Pre-New Year..New Year.

Totally Clear Most of the Day, Warmer Tomorrow

(Pictured above is the sunset during the passage of Hurricane Dennis off to our east)

We've finally got the coldest morning for the next few days out of the way, and the sky is completely clear this morning. Expect today to warm up to near 61 degrees today under continued clear skies and light north winds. All in all, not too bad although we could stand to notch to temperature up...like 20 degrees. Those days aren't too far off though...or at least close to it. By late afternoon, say in the 3-4pm time frame the wind will have swung over to the NE...and some stratocumulus clouds will invade the coastal communities mainly east of US1. Kind of odd sounding, but right on the coast the temperature may very well bottom out at around 9pm..then actually warm a couple of degrees over night as the onshore flow deepens, clouds prevent radiational cooling, and winds continue to veer to a more easterly component. However, expect that it will only be east of US1 that will effectively feel the change...even more so east of A1A within two blocks of the beach. The western half of the state and as far south as Punta Gorda probably won't feel the change at all and will thus be in for another cold morning tomorrow...not that any where west of US1 will be all that great either though.

Tomorrow will probably be the best day for all areas across the boards both clouds and temperature wise. Could introduce a small chance of showers late in the day...specifically for the region north of Indian Harbor Beach and south of Oak Hill to the north...as well as east of I95. Problem is that I don't think that we'll have a deep layer moiture recovery in full yet, so would reserve any rain chance to be extremely isolated even within the aforementioned area; nonetheless, the possibility will exist through mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday.

By Thursday we will probably be clouding up pretty good with mainly mid-high level clouds, but the temperature will warm with a high in the low 70s. The chance of rain may actually decrease for a period as the onshore flow weakens and begins to veer to more of a southerly component, leaving any shower activity just off the coast. Friday will be the warmest of days for quite a while, with a high near 74 degrees but the chance of rain will also be on the increase along with more cloud layers. Unless you can monitor the weather continuously, I'd have an umbrella handy upon stepping out for the day...just in case you need by the time you return home later in the day if not on the way out.

A major weather changing cold front will be passing through late New Year's Eve into the New Year day, but timing is still a little iffy as to exactly when the actual frontal passage will occur. As with many cold fronts during an El Nino winter, the chance or rain will increase but not tremendously. We'll have to wait another 36 hours to see more specifically how the rain aspect of the front materializes, but for now I'd expect to be hearing the chances up to either 30 or 40 percent by Thursday afternoon. By late Saturday through Monday we will be rain free, but expect a prolonged (emphasized) very cool to cold spell. As of this writing, I'm not seeing a temperature recovery to warmer air for quite some time...at least not anything totally respectable and worth writing about. Enjoy the next three days while you can !!

Awesome Day In Store

Photo: Storm Chasers gather at the top of Scott's Bluff, Nebraska on a 'down day". I'm standing on the far left

Like the title reads...that's the story. The coming front is 'super obvious' on satellite as a knotted, linear rope cloud on satellite imagery stretching into the Gulf of Mexico. For today..before the front (we've already had a pre-frontal trough pass which cleared out the clouds)..expect a very pleasant day with a moderate WNW breeze and cool temperature throughout. Keep the sweater out and wear those clothes that have been reserved for an entire year though..because now is the time to be doing it...although they might feel "stuffy" indoors...just don't over do it.

Not much has changed from yesterday's line of thought for the extended period..or even the near term for that matter. Hey, we even had a spritz on the windshield yesterday..but not enough to get the ground wet. Hope you enjoyed it.

Only change, and which was alluded to yesterday as a forethought to a potential change to the GFS's line of 'thought'...is that the intense cold spell it was depicting will not, just like at Christmas time, become a reality. YEAH! Not comfortable with this resolution entirely just yet though. ..one more run. By 10pm tonight we'll know a LOT more. For now, it's tonight thru Tuesday noon that we need to bundle up.

Front, boundary, flow pattern..whatever one wants to call it..will go through with no fanfare unbeknownst to us on the ground. Above our heads the weather gods will be yaking up a storm..but that storm won't come here..just the cold air for Tuesday. Be prepared. A VERY rapid repose to climatic or above norms to begin Wednesday evening with Thursday being the complex one. Don't want to be a liar or to provide false hopes at this point..so I'm leaving Thursday and points beyond out of this equation (post)...as there is simply too many ifs, ands, maybe's', or but's'...but it must be stated with that just written..ANYTHING you hear or see about that time period must be taken with a grain of salt. Those forecasts are made under obligation...but the reality is that those in the making of them are as equally perplexed as myself at this time.

But I can provide this snipet of info which I believe will be an actuality...I also feel responsible to state this because I alluded to the same time frame yesterday. That being, from last I saw..and just like the Christmas 'threat"...we won't get Super Cold after New Years as previously thought. We'll just stay very cool at a level just below seasonal norms...for what looks like an eternity.

But for today, sunny..warming to near 68..but a warm 68 if that makes sense. But, as soon as the sun starts to hug the horizon I'm running for cover!

The El Nino Blues To Continue Today

Satellite image showing perfectly the odd cloud formation directly overhead in the first image. Look over the Cape on the east coast and you can see that thin white line...first photo shows what it looked like from the ground.

Typical, typical, typical...underlined, emphasized, and begroaningly stated. Oh so typical El Nino winter in place and to continue for the next 10 days. Expect today to be very similar to yesterday with mostly to totally cloudy skies for the most part with periodic filtered sunlight to occur at about any time. With the low sun angle and overcast sky it looks like either a perpetual late morning or very late afternoon all day long. Expect the high temperature to pretty much be the same as yesterday's with a high around 64 between the hours of noon-3:30pm.

Synopsis: Weak high pressure over Florida - - an extension of a much larger and stronger one centered over the High Plains of the U.S. -- will 'bubble' lose today and float over the area creating a light north to eventually NNE wind less than 10mph all day. Higher up there in the atmosphere the southern branch jet stream continues to race overhead at 25-35,000 feet at speeds at or approaching 100mph. A low pressure system is trying ever so hard to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and it will push east today toward or just south of the Florida Keys. This low will remain weak if not fizzle all together as it approaches the keys with little to no weather associated with it. As it passes south of us the strong high pressure over the Northern Plains will also meander eastward"ly" and reinforce a more WNW surface wind pattern. The air associated with this system will be coming from the recent snow covered areas in the Central Plains and Midwest regions...i.e. - a cold source.

So essentially we're going to get a cold front although I'd prefer to refer to it as simply an enhancement of what we already have in place since there really isn't any discernible boundaries to delineate one. So enhanced that by Tuesday morning it will be...bite my tongue..cold with a low right along the coast around 46 degrees and colder and more toward 40 in rapid transition as one gets west of the Banana River. Cold and breezy to boot.

Clouds to remain in place today...and in fact will overall get worse before it gets better. Radar is actually showing that it should be raining across the northern peninsula roughly under a line running from Jacksonille to Crystal River on the west coast...but none of that "rain" is reaching the ground per latest surface observations from the major reporting resources.

However, I'm throwing in a very remote chance of a 'windshield detectable sprinkle' type spritz anytime after 1pm as we may gain a smidge of additional mid-level lift and associated denser cloud pack currently approaching from the eastern Gulf. Regardless, even if it happens 'rainfall' amounts would not even get the ground wet.

Tonight into tomorrow morning will remain cloudy but as the wind becomes more WNW as that large high pressure over comes the area we could see an opportunity for skies to break up with some decent sun on Tuesday..at least for a 6-12 hour period of time to accompany the windshift. But there is some pseudo-good news in all of this. It currently looks like this cold spell will be very short lived as our warmest day, just like Christmas Eve was, will be right on its heals for New Years Eve. On the downside, it's during that period that we will have our best chances for rain...mmmm..do I hear thunder then..maybe? Maybe.

As we go even later into the week, the late Wednesday to Friday time frame, things become somewhat problemmatic as every model run of any one particular model varies greatly...AND the various models do not agree amongst themselves either. What they do agree on is that after all that will be evolving in the next of the "train of Gulf lows" crosses us sometime within that period...we will end up with the coldest morning/mornings yet this winter. But we're talking nearly a week from now, so we can still pray that - like with this last system that crossed on Christmas - such temperatures will never occur anyway.

Get Down and "Snuggie"

Photo shows Cocoa Beach at 4pm Christmas Day. Nice rain shower seemed to be threatening for a waterspout, but it never happened of which I'm aware of.

If you haven't figured it out already (by going outside), it's obvious the cold front from yesterday has continued on through as the temperature is more than 10 degrees cooler than the past 2 days. So break out that new Christmas sweater or jacket because it's going to come in handy all weekend. Or perhaps you received a Snuggie for Christmas? Maybe you can wear that around to the mall or get one for your dog too and you can show them off while going for a walk :-); or maybe you got a "Wizard of Oz" blankie. I saw one at the mall - - it reads, "I'll get you my pretty" all over it with little pictures of the wicked witch of the west all over it. Too much!

High cirrus clouds and some mid-level altocumulus are visually evident both on satellite imagery and upon looking outside, and as it appears now, at least the cirrus clouds will be with us all weekend. We may get a break from some of the mid-level cloudiness though by mid-late morning and for the rest of the day. Rain chances are pretty much zero all weekend as well along with NW to NNW winds prevailing at a speed less than 10 mph. And so it will be.

Believe that from what I'm seeing on The Weather Channel that their forecasted high temperature is too warm. With only filtered sunlight, shorter days/lower sun angle, and light northerly wind component being the rule believe they've been overshot by nearly 5 degrees -- hence, I believe our high temperature will not crack 65 today and remain around 63 or 64 at best during the hours of 12-2pm. At least it won't be windy, so wind chill won't be a factor. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same as today, with the possibility of some of the clouds breaking up by afternoon as a shot of upper level jet stream passes on to the east.

Future? For now in general thinking, we will remain on the coolish side through Thursday, with the coldest day to be Tuesday when the beaches will go down to the upper 40s with the temps getting closer to 40 the further one goes west of the Banana River. Highs will also remain cool, with the first day of possibly seeing 70 degrees on Thursday. It also so happens that Thursday late will be our next chance of some rain. Plenty of time to see how things come together though, so don't go cancelling a trip to Disney based on what is written this morning.

Have a Holly Jolly...

Radar images show the 'squall line' as well as the rain showers that nicked the Cape over night.

Things are pretty much on track this Christmas morning as expected per yesterday's post. We got down to 68 degrees for a brief time last night, but for the most part it hung right at 70 degrees. A quick rain shower nicked the Cape area about 3 hours before sunrise and we got a quick 0.10" of rain in short order with winds gusting to an estimated 30mph. But those are now long gone as most of that activity is forming and remaining off shore. The tornado producing squall line of yesterday is still marching east and now about 75 miles west of the Florida west coast. In line with yesterday's thinking, still expect it to break up as the supporting low pressure area which created blizzard conditions from Texas to Oklahoma and into the Dakotas moves NNE and 'stretches' out all the associated energy with it. As the line of storms thins an upper and mid level jet streak approaches our area and spills debris cloud across the state by 8-9am which should remain in place the rest of the day. Chances of rain will increase despite the fact that the squall line will become non-existent south of a Daytona Beach - Gainesville line as there is a band of deeper moisture and a tad of instability being shoved this way. Yesterday I said our best chances of thunder would be between 1-4pm. I'm tempted to take out thunder and just make it our best chances of rain will be during that period.

Otherwise, the temperature forecast is still on track with a high today maybe a degree warmer than yesterday despite the cloud cover. Why? We lose the wind off the ocean as it will start to come out of the southwest and not off the 67 degree ocean water. Rain, if any, will end by midnight tonight...but not expecting more than 1/2" anywhere as even the heavier showers that manage to formulate will be moving briskly due to the aforementioned mid level jet streak.

Cooling air temperatures ensue tomorrow with a continued falling trend through Monday with lows right on the coast perhaps in the upper 40s Tuesday morning but otherwise in the mid 50s. Probably up to 10 degrees cooler inland though or perhaps just west of the Indian River. Still fearing abundant high cloud coverage after a period of good clearing immediately behind the front..so after a sunny Saturday we might be doing an about face to the pesky cirrostratus clouds. Still up in the air as to rain chances on Wednesday or late Tuesday...but as it looks now it's actually appearing to be more likely that this cold front will return as a warm front as yet another wave of low pressure forms along its remainders in the Gulf which will move ENE across the state and lift the boundary back toward us for a second blow...this time in the form of stratiform rain...blah's ville. But, that is still a big "if"...so I will continue to monitor this possibility. Perhaps when the later morning model runs have completed running we'll have a better idea of what is to come rain wise. Will reflect on this again in tomorrow's post.

Beautiful Christmas Eve Morning...To Go Downhill

Boy, it feels kind of 'gooey' outside this morning...and expect more throughout the day today, tonight, and all of Christmas Day. A very complex storm system has taken shape over the country's mid-section over night with a surface low pressure system near extreme NW Louisiana and appended cold front/developing squall line extending south from it into the Gulf of Mexico. The southern extent of the squall line is starting to move out of radar range but is easily detectable via satellite imagery. Will it make it here? Don't think so.

(Note: You can click on the Title of this post to see a Christmas Video if reading this from Blogger)

For today, expect due east winds off the 65 degree ocean temperature mixing with an air mass that is trying to warm up 10-15 degrees warmer than that. The result will be very 'sticky'. Temperatures will struggle to warm up as much as they'd like to as a result, but it still will be up around 75 degrees today. Good thing about today over the past few days, there is currently few to no clouds out there as of this writing and it's 67 degrees. In fact, we 'bottomed out' at 67 around 7pm last night, and it never got any cooler due to the onshore winds which kept our temperatures easily 10 or more degrees warmer than our friends over toward Orlando and Tampa. Gotta love the coast (sometimes). You'll see that in early spring it becomes the storm lovers curse. But that discussion is for another day, another season!

Chance of rain today is pretty much nil; however, latest model guidance is suggesting that by late morning we will start to see more clouds overspreading the area - both high clouds starting to stream in from the west in the southern branch jet stream, and from the east at the low levels as warmer air over runs the cooler ocean waters. If they thicken up enough a barely detectable spritz might occur, but I'd put that possiblity at the very low end or low ends. At least it's warmer air, as opposed to the odd situation we had in reverse about a week ago when there was fog right east of US1 at 5pm in the afternoon. The wind will start to veer to a more southeasterly component by late afternoon as the clouds continue to increase. Overnight lows along the coast...and probably over most of the area will only get down to about 67 once again or maybe a notch or two warmer for our late Christmas Eve. Clouds to increase overnight with the chance of a sprinkle ever increasing throughout the evening, especially after midnight.

Christmas Day. Not the best of days I'm sorry to say. At least it won't be pointlessly cold..but it will be totally cloudy with rain chances continuing to increase throughout the day. The now squall line well west of us will probably start to break up as it approaches Florida's West Coast...but there's a decent chance that pieces will still make it here. We could even be hearing thunder, especially in the 1-4pm time frame Christmas Day. I think the official forecast is giving us a 60% chance of rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see it get bumped up to 70% in one of their upcoming forecast release periods.

Rain chances will start to decrease significantly in the 7-9pm time frame Christmas Night, with the coast being the last to clear out...or at least have the rain end. After the system is passed, the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is painting a "lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs in the mid-60s" painting, with probably lots of high jet stream cloudiness which puts sort of a gunky mood on things. All this happening while yet another in the 'low pressure train' starts to take shape in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Timing on these system has been approximately every 5-7 days...and based on a study I did a long time ago, expecting such timing to be the course for much of this El Nino Winter.

Word of note: Caveat - will be watching for potential rain chances to increase much sooner than currently expected ahead of the next system if certain parameters materialize as indicated by one of the forecast models. For now I'm leaving it dry, but by Monday we might be looking at an oozy rain. More to come. Be safe out there..and try not to rush too much today. Joyous Christmas Eve!!

O' Warmy Night!

It appears that we will have a nice Christmas Gift coming to East Central Florida this year, in the form of warm weather (relatively wintery speaking) with a low temperature Christmas Eve in the mid-upper 60s right along the coast. From Orlando westward it will be a totally different story by about a 10 -15 degrees colder difference. In any case, expect today to be very mild with a high near 72 degrees with light east winds and some clouds increasimg by mid-afternoon. The temperature tonight will fall only a smidge (right along the coast, again)...then Christmas Eve Day warms to the mid-70s with continued E-ESE winds (light). Christmas Day should dawn partly cloudy with the possiblity of a few remote rain showers around, with the probability increasing during the day and into the night... thunder is unlikely do to the stable nature of the atmosphere but we'll still see 70 degrees again. After Christmas Day (Saturday)...things go downhill temperature wise, where we'll be flirting with the 40s for lows for several days. Enjoy it while it lasts!