Chamber of Commerce Weekend (For the Most Part)

SPRING!!

Chamber of Commerce Weather: Any type of sunny weather that would attract visitors to your city. In Atlanta, that means 65 degrees and sunny on a Saturday in February.

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast will drift NE and be replaced by high pressure building eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure will drift directly overhead this evening and be situated just east of the state by Saturday morning as a developing cold front moves into the Dixie region by late in the day. This front will approach peninsular Florida late Sunday. As a result. a beautiful but only slightly cool weekend is in store for East Central Florida.

TODAY: Cool start to the morning with a temperature in the low-mid 50s will warm to 70 or a notch above that today. As stated yesterday, right along the beach side the temperature may initially rise to this level but drop to about 68 degrees once a very light c-breeze develops by mid-afternoon. The sky will be partly cloudy but mostly sunny.

TONIGHT: Clear with a low in the mid 50s.

SATURDAY: Stellar with a high in the low-mid 70s area wide. The Chamber of Commerce has come to town. Winds will be light from the SE-SSE at less than 10mph area wide

SUNDAY: A warmer morning with a low around 63 degrees. The day will dawn sunny and clear with a few patches of very light fog.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The warmest day we've had this year thus far with a high in the mid-upper 70s. Some inland locations will be flirting with 80 degrees. Increasing high and low level clouds by mid-afternoon as the cold front approaches.

SUNDAY EVENING: We will start to directly experience impacts of the approaching front as it moves ever so closer. Increasing clouds at all levels. We will also introduce a chance of rain by mid-late evening. Maybe even a rumble of thunder, but as of now that chance looks minimal.

MONDAY: Will dawn cloudy and possibly rainy. But not to fret, the rain will move out by late morning and the sky will slowly start to clear. Even though a front will have gone through we won't get cold. In fact, by Wednesday temperatures will rebound back into the mid-upper 70s once again. No big rains, or any for that matter, are on the horizon after they end Monday morning.

The next post to this blog will be made Monday morning as I will be out of pocket this weekend. Have a great first weekend of early spring type weather!

Yet Another Unseasonably Cool Day on Tap

Image: What would you like in your coffee?

Synopsis: Low pressure continues approximately 100 ENE of Daytona. Wrap around moisture and associated clouds continue to affect the north half of the state. High pressure in the extreme western Gulf of Mexico is building slowly eastward. The high will pass over head during the weekend and be followed by a cold front that will be impacting the Dixie region while we bask in pleasant conditions.,

TODAY: The weather in Brevard today will be affected mainly by circulation around a low pressure system over the extreme Southeast U.S. The surface low is east of Daytona but the low at a higher level of the atmosphere is right along the Georgia coast. It is circulation around that low that will affect our sky conditions today, whereas the surface low will affect the wind. Mostly cloudy with occasional periods of partly cloudy skies all day with a west wind of 10-15mph. The south half of the county will see signifcantly more sun though. Despite what I'm hearing on TV I do not believe it will rain today, unless we receive a trace amount sometime late in the afternoon. Any rain though will essentially be negligible. The high temperature today will continue below what we'd normally expect this time of year with a high of only 65 degrees due to the lack of solid, prolonged sunlight during max heating as well as reinforcing cool air filtering in on the heals of the west wind circulating around the mid-level low along the Georgia coast.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing after dark with a low near 55 degrees and a NW wind of 5-10 mph

FRIDAY: Continued somewhat cool but with much better sky conditions and a lighter wind. No chance of rain. NW wind gradually veering to north by late in the day at 10mph under partly cloudy skies. The high temperature will be a tad warmer since we should see more sun at around the 68-70 degree notch on 'ole mercury'.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Near calm wind and clear with occasional clouds splots and a low near 58 degrees.

SATURDAY: Now comes the fun part! No change from what was written yesterday. A few clouds with nearly calm winds, but a light ocean puff from the E-ENE at 5-8mph during the afternoon and a high near 72 degrees. Away from the immediate beaches it could easily be a couple of degrees warmer. (Darned cold ocean water)

SATURDAY NIGHT: Continuing the gradual warming trend we'll have a low around 63.

SUNDAY: Light morning winds will yield to SE winds which will veer during the day to become Southwesterly by mid afternoon. Noticeably warmer with a high near 77 degrees. Few clouds to start the day but gradually an increase of at first high clouds by mid day. Clouds increasing significantly in the last hours before sunset as the Dixie front approaches.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY: Cold front knocking at the door. WSW and cloudy but not cold. Low Sunday night near 64 degrees and a high on Monday near 72 with a very infinitesimally small chance of a sprinkle.

The front will be in the region through mid-day Tuesday after which it will move on and skies will clear nicely. All in all next week, at least for the first half, it appears that it will be warmer than this week has been...and by Wednesday we could have temperatures almost right on the :"average for this time of year' mark.

(Hurricane) Erin Go Braugh

Speakers of the Irish language assume that the phrase is a corruption of the Irish Éire go Brách or Éireann go Brách]. The term brách is equivalent to "eternity" or "end of time", meaning the phrase may be translated literally as "Ireland until eternity" or "Ireland until the end (of time)". The form Éireann go Bráth or Éire go Bráth is also used in Irish and means the same thing.

The shamrock is a symbol of Ireland. It is a three-leafed old white clover. It is sometimes of the variety Trifolium repens (a white clover, known in Irish as seamair bhán) but today usually Trifolium dubium (a lesser clover, Irish: seamair bhuí).
The diminutive version of the Irish word for "clover" ("seamair") is "seamróg", which was anglicised as "shamrock", representing a close approximation of the original Irish pronunciation. However, other three-leafed plants — such as black medic (Medicago lupulina), red clover (Trifolium pratense), and wood-sorrel (genus Oxalis) — are sometimes designated as shamrocks. The shamrock was traditionally used for its medical properties and was a popular motif in Victorian times.

TODAY: Weak low pressure will form off the coast of Daytona Beach today in response to some upper level energy (vorticity) passing over at the 500mb (20K Ft) level. Dry air is wrapping around and shooting in at the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere. A few trace amounts of rain may be reported, but for the most part it will be dry. The exception might be early this evening where a continued additional chance of trace amounts are possible for coastal N. Brevard and Volusia counties. High temperatures will be down played today due to sky cover, with a high near 63 degrees. Partial clearing by late afternoon or early evening as the drier air has a more pronounced influence over the area, but we're not quite out of the woods just yet.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with a 12 mph west wind and a low near 55 along the coast and closer to 50 west of the Indian River.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY: Variable cloudiness with a light westerly component wind continuing and a high near 68 degrees . Low Friday morning similar to Thursday morning's temperature. A very low end chance of a trace amount rain shower along the immediate coast of Brevard and Volusia counties continuing. The low off the coast of Daytona will be on the way out to sea by the end of Friday and the skies will be begin to clear more affirmatively/noticeably.

SATURDAY/MOST OF SUNDAY: Great weekend in store! Perhaps the best one we've had yet this year! Lows will be around 63 degrees and the high Saturday will be near 74; Sunday closer to 77 with increasing clouds during the afternoon and a noticeable SW wind of 15mph. All that in prelude to an approaching cold front. Possibly a few degrees cooler along the very immediate beach side Saturday if a very light sea breeze develops. However, impacts will be minimal and restricted to a few blocks of the beach at most on Saturday.

LATE SUNDAY: Again, increasing cloudiness by late in the day with a chance of rain at or shortly after sunset; however, rainfall totals at this time look as if they won't be much more than a trace.

MONDAY: A cold front will have passed through by Monday morning followed by NW winds of 15mph. Afternoon highs won't be greatly impacted, but will be about 5 degrees below normal. More to come on this period as time dries nigh.

Go green!

Calming Winds and Clouding Skies

Images: Clouds make a signature of the southern branch jet stream; several small short waves to impact the area into next week

I don't know about you, but it seems more to me like we are in the early fringes of spring rather than the last vestiges of winter. ..or maybe it's just wishful thinking. I usually think of spring arriving in phases:. The unofficial seven phases of spring are as follows:

Phase 1: the last real cold spell - new leaves are beginning to sprout and birds have arrived and are quite noisy during the day

Phase II: a rainy period after which it never really gets real cold again but is still somewhat cool

Phase III: Maybe one last very cool spell that last 1.5 days (sometimes this phase is omitted)

Phase IV: A period of a few weeks where it never gets cold again and highs are near 80 everyday. This is the tricky period with the best chances of severe weather

Phase V: There's two hot days near 90s thrown in accompanied by big storms

Phase VI: Suddenly summer. Warm all the day and a brief dry period before the summer thunderstorm season begins. This is usually in the time frame of the last week of May or first few days of June

Phase VII: It's summer during the first week of June

Right now I think we are between Phase II and III.

(Note: I made these up. They are not documented anywhere except in my head. These phases are simply mental, observational notes I've made to myself after having lived here for 43 springs and summers)

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure is gradually fading away from the U.S. NE coast into the Atlantic. The second of many short wave troughs and associated vorticity is approaching the region. Because the low pressure off the mid-Atlantci/NE Coast is moving away the pressure gradient will decrease significantly today, and thus the wind will be greatly reduced.

TODAY: As you can see by the satellite image, clouds are plentiful within the southern branch jet stream (also evidenced by looking outside at the sky). The jet stream is flowing directly overhead today, so we can expect high cirrus and cirrostratus clouds to be plentiful as they come across in batches. End result will be partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies with filtered sunlight. Winds will initially be NW but become light from the ENE at less than 10mph by 1pm. Temperature today along the immediate coast is starting out at 57 degrees. Sea surface temperature at Cocoa Beach is about 61 degrees. After a quick warm up within 2 hours after sunrise believe the onshore wind component blowing over the 61 degree waters will keep air temperatures east of the Banana River in the mid-upper 60s (66 degrees) this afternoon. This, in addition to periods of filtered sunshine (if even that at times) will make it a little coolish this afternoon, but with the wind so light it won't be all bad. Folks from Merritt Island and points west will fare much better with a high near 71. Clouds will increase significantly within 1 hour of sunset and remain throughout the night in advance of the next shortwave trough (depicted in the image above).

TONIGHT: Low temperature this night as well as Wednesday will be very similar to what we had this morning. No big cool down. In fact, no cool down.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a light ENE wind. Morning low around 57 degrees. Chance of rainshowers in association with positive vorticity advection (as part of the short wave trough) as it passes overhead. Showers will be light and mostly likely east of US1 from 1pm through 10pm.

THURSDAY: Partial clearing but setting up for the next in the train of disturbances that are taking the roller coaster ride from the west coast , over the hump of a small ridge in the middle of the country, then descending into the base of the upper level trough which is residing over the Southeast U.S. Mostly cloudy again on Thursday with a chance of showers just about anytime. Low again near 57 but with a very slow warming trend in progress and a high near 70.

FRIDAY: Clouds pulling out, NW winds at about 8mph and a high of 72.

WEEKEND: Nice for the most part. Light NW winds shifting to SE by the end of the weekend with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low-mid 60s. Clouds on the increase by mid afternoon Sunday with rain chances again being introduced over night into Monday. This one looks like it might affect extreme south Florida / the Keys more than us. But thunder will be in the equation with it wherever its impact is most felt.

Enjoy this weather. It's actually kind of amazing to experience out transition into spring (or more importantly, OUT of winter). We might have one short cold blast sometime next week, but confidence that far out, as always is the case in the long range forecast, is very low. Enjoy.

Happy Daylight Savings Time!

Image: Lola taking one of her last opportunities to snuggle in a coat before spring fully arrives

Sure gets light late in the morning now. But then again, it gets dark late too. Take the bad with the good ...no problem. Today's discussion will be somewhat on the benign nature as there really isn't too much to get excited about. Besides, I'm tired this morning and not in much of a jocular mood. But the weather never stops...so here we go! :

SYNOPSIS: Vast area of low pressure remains pegged just off the coast of the DelMarVa region. High pressure encompasses much of the Central U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. These two features, as they did over the weekend, will be the primary weather influences for Central Florida today.

TODAY: Another classic early spring morning across all of Florida. Other than the much warmer Keys, conditions across peninsular Florida were amazingly uniform across the boards. Lows were generally in the mid-upper 50s with a pocket or two of upper 40s where winds went calm in the Big Bend region. Conditions are strikingly similar to the past two days. It was noted this morning that area profilers were not quite showing winds as strong as yesterday.

Therefore, expect today to be mostly clear with some spots of large stratocumulus clouds developing during the afternoon which will occasionally block out the sun. Winds will not be quite as gutsy (no typo) as they were over the weekend. Expect that by the core of the afternoon they will be WNW at 18mph with a few gusts over open water areas to 22mph. The high temperature will be 71 degrees.

TONIGHT: Increase in some high cirrus clouds whisping over near or after sunset as the subtropical jet realigns its trajectory. Winds will wind down significantly after dark to the 5-10mph range. Lows once again in the mid-upper 50s.

TOMORROW: The low pressure area will begin to drift just south of due east. Lower values (height falls) of the 500mb-700mb layer will results as a fresh influx of cooler air filters south behind the circulation of the low pressure system. Thus, high tomorrow a tad cooler at 69 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Wind will become WNW-NW at 10-15mph during the afternoon. Decreasing to 5-8mph by or shortly after sunset.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing high clouds under a partly cloudy sky accompanied by a 68 degree high temperature. Increasing clouds throughout the day with a chance of rain after 2pm and lasting throughout the night. At time rain chances might be called out thru the media as high as 40%...I don't use percentages so I'll leave it at that there is a true reality that it could rain...and maybe even rumble a bit any time from 4pm Wednesday through 7am Thursday. Low near 53 degrees through Thursday's sunrise.

THURSDAY: Clearing by 10am and cooler. High of 67 degrees with very light north winds.

FRIDAY: A few scattered clouds with a low of 52 and a high again near 67 with light and variable winds. Possibly an onshore component wind (c-breeze) developing by mid afternoon to affect only the area east of the Banana River. If this does occur coastal temperatures could fall a tad during the mid-late afternoon to 65 degrees. Cool again Friday night with a low again near 53.

THE WEEKEND: Much warmer and nice! We will be in the phase where it will be warming but the next system (which will be approaching)...will yet to be close enough to impact us directly. Other than some partly cloudy skies it could very well be the first pronounced 'warmish' period of the early spring season with a high in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s. In other words totally uneventful.

NEXT MONDAY: A storm system might be realized at this point which will bring cause to introduce rain chances back into the forecast for one day only. More to come on that scenario later in the week.

-Steve Sponsler

Happy Pi Day - 3.14 (10)

Image: KSC Profilers depicting uniform winds -- CLICK TO ENLARGE
Pi Day is a holiday held to celebrate the mathematical constant π (pi) (in the mm/dd date notation: 3/14); since 3, 1 and 4 are the first three digits of π. March 14 is also the birthday of Albert Einstein .

Another blustery, clear, not cool but not warm day in store for Central Florida on this famous Pi Day (and maybe not so coincidentally Albert Einstein's birth date). Can it get any better? You bet! Let's add on about 10 degrees and reduce the wind by 10 mph and we'd have a perfect day, but such will not be the case. Instead, we have to contend with cool mornings dag-nab-it, and that nasty wind. Complain, complain (I know). In reality, nothing to complain about today unless one is trying to read the newspaper by an 'unsheltered from the wind' pool. "Hey, there goes the sports section into the water." Heck if I'd go in after it with the water as cold as it is.

TODAY: Another negligible impact day in store for the second half of the weekend. Sounding data from the Space Meteorological Group (SMG) and KSC profilers are all indicating that the wind just above the surface is still blowing at an approximately healthy 27kts. So, despite the light wind that we have at the time of this writing, once the sun starts glaring full bore and breaks the minuscule inversion those winds will mix to the surface and create yet another breezy day under mainly clear skies. High temperature of 70 degrees plus or minus a degree or two.

TONIGHT: Same as last night with a low in the mid-upper 50s depending on one's locale.

TOMORROW: Let's just take a print out and run it through the copy machine. More of the same although the wind might be just a smidgen lighter. High of 70.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not too often one can sum up an entire week in one sentence, but here goes. Slight increase in clouds late Tuesday through Wednesday, decreasing wind, and temperatures possibly dropping (yes, dropping) a notch with a high of 69 and lows in the low-mid 50s. There. Did it.

Rain you ask? Highly unlikely but we're going to go with the infamous silent 10 percent chance of a barely detectable sprinkle on Wednesday just to make things interesting. For the most part, if not all of it...none.

WHEN IS THERE AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE?: Seemingly never but let's shoot for next weekend. We might warm to temperatures that are what would be considered right at normal.

So I've managed to write a couple of paragraphs for you after all. Have a Happy Pi Day in recognition to your favorite mathematician. What? You don't have one?!

Oh Blustery Day

*Image: Morning KSC Sounding Shows 37kt wind just above the surface

"Bluster"–verb (used without object)
1. to roar and be tumultuous, as wind.

I'm packing up the blankets and long pants! After two damp days it looks like the 'dries' are here to stay for quite a while. Surface low pressure over eastern Virginia will spin quasi-stationary generally over Eastern Virginia through the weekend. High pressure is building slowly ENE-ward from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico. The combination of circulations around the low and the high will generate a healthy west wind across the entire state today. The cloudiness/rain of the past two days is all but a faded memory - - FINALLY!

TODAY: Morning low in Canaveral was 59 degrees right at sunrise. Wind was very light at that time. Expecting that once things heat up...say by 10:00am...the weak inversion depicted on the sounding will mix out and those 30kt winds will mix/descend down to the surface. Any clouds generated by the mixing which will appear before that time should also 'dry out'. Thus, expecting a blustery day with winds in the 20-30mph range...could see some higher gusts up to 35 mph (perhaps even stronger?) over the open waters of the Banana River/Indian River/Various Lakes/off the coast/St. John River Valley Basin Territory. High around 71 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees.

TONIGHT: Wind will remain somewhat elevated but die to the 10-15mph. Sky mostly clear with a low around 55 (plus or minus 4-5 degrees depending on where one is located)

SUNDAY: Same as today.

EXTENDED: No reasonable weather worth mentioning until possibly Wednesday but even then not expecting any significant weather. Only thing notable is that we may cool by 2-5 degrees Wednesday through Saturday and there will be some periods where we actually have some decent clouds.

*NOTE: We are now entering the spring season in Central Florida and this is officially Florida's Severe Weather Month (the past two days was a good sampling). I have noticed historically that some days when interesting weather is to occur that some very interesting things can occur and it is likely I'll 'bust' on some forecasts (i.e., 'fail'). But we're ready to meet the challenge.

I love early spring as it works into full bore spring and eventually summer. It can be a very exciting period with beautiful days punctuated intermittently with some nasty storms. The trees start to spurt new leaves of life...birds can be heard 1/2 hour before sunrise...and sometimes we can hear them in the middle of the night through an open window.

Very adventuresome weather too; however, these days can sometimes be very difficult to peg down when it comes to forecasting the active days. For now though, not expecting any surprises for the next 5 days. Wake me when there's a smidge of a chance of rain......

Rain Today, Gone Tomorrow

Image: Computer generated depiction of how convoluted the surface features are forecast to be at 1pm

Very complicated reflection at the surface of what is happening aloft this morning (as you can see by the surface features provided in the image above). Despite all the complications involved, it currently appears that the threat of severe weather, or even thunder for that matter, is pretty low.

It does appear to me that there could be rotating storms if they existed sometime after 4pm; however, all resources including various offices as well as the models, indicate that by that time the rain my very well be over. I'd have to guess that the atmosphere is so worked over from this long duration rain as well as lack of (thermal) instability is off-setting anything that might make an "attempted act" (as one fellow chaser likes to call tornadoes).

TODAY: Low confidence forecast! Cloudy with light to moderate rain and maybe a rumble of thunder now and then. High today will probably not make it as warm as forecasted simply because of the rain. Let's take a shot at 71 degrees. Winds appear as though they will be light from a southerly component but pick up some by late afternoon as the front gets closer. The biggest challenge is determining just exactly when the rain will end, and if we'll actually have a 'storm' of sorts. By all indications it should be over by late afternoon and no storms, but I'm not thoroughly convinced! If we're going to get a storm it would be sometime in the 4-6pm time frame at the end of the rain period. Would be a nice finale wouldn't it? However, at this time it appears that when the parameters come together the rain will be out of the picture. Have I left you hanging? Now you know how I feel. Let's be optimistic though and go straight with the model forecast of ending the rain by mid-late afternoon with no storms.

TOMORROW: The parent low pressure that's causing all this 'weather' will be slowly oozing off to the east from the eastern U.S. coast approximately around Virginia-Maryland. It will be slow to move on so as a result circulation around it in combination with high pressure building in from the west will make for a breezy (from the west) day under partly cloudy skies and comfortably modest temperatures. It may actually end up being warmer along the coast than our previous "warm" days since we won't have a seabreeze advecting that cold air above the ocean's surface to the immediate coast. High in the low 70s and blustery.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Gradually waning west wind under partly cloudy skies and a low in the mid-upper 50s.

FURTHER OUT: Other than a weak frontal boundary affecting us on Wednesday the entire week will be uneventful. The next front on Wednesday will have only minor influence with a slight chance of showers for a yet to be determined small time frame...otherwise the next week looks to be close to what we would normally expect this time of year...just a few degrees cooler than what would be considered "normal". Lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs near 70 plus or minutes a degree or two after the front on Wednesday...before then in the low 70s.

When's the next big weather event? None on the horizon that can be stated with any degree of confidence.

Tornadoes/Severe Storms Possible

Above images: KSC 7am Sounding, forecast images showing fronts/rain and the low level jet at the 925mb level, and latest radar.

Mary Poppoins could have a field day today if she could get caught in a good updraft!! As mentioned yesterday, it looked like today could be a very active weather day. Nothing has changed from that reasoning for such to occur and, in fact, later tonight into very early Saturday we very well could revisit similar conditions.

TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Cloudy, breezy, and damp conditions this morning are harbingers of the incoming rain. First off! It should be noted that the short term model (RUC) is indicating No Rain for the majority of the day. So I'm keeping that possibility in the back of my mind. However, upon running a radar loop...the echos showing up along the west coast are moving steadily eastward...so that possibility might have to be discounted. The National Weather Service (NWS) has stated, and I quote:

"FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS DURING THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO."

All of the above is EXTREMELY realistic considering what is currently materializing ala the KSC Sounding. Timing places the onset of potentially severe conditions to ensue between 10am-12pm, but not necessarily at your location.

Conditions for nasty weather should wane by late afternoon; however, rain could and porbably will continue.

The following is quoted from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) based in Norman, OK.

"DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE."

What this all means is that the current setup which contains deep shear with height in a very moist environment SUPPORTS supercell thunderstorms which can generate tornadoes and strong wind gusts. This threat should begin to take shape near noon time then diminish by early evening...but yet another disturbance in the flow will again enhance the LLJ (Low Level Jet) and create similar conditions during the wee hours of Friday.

This is what a severe weather enthusiast lives for!

FRIDAY: This period will require major refinement today being potentially a BIG day....and possibly Friday as well...as many things can change. So let's just jump to Saturday.Note that I have stressed potentially....this does not mean it WILL occur..or if it does not necessarily at your location.

SATURDAY: Conditions for severe weather will have passed. The day will start out cloudy with lingering rain showers around, but conditions will gradually improve as the day wears on. One good thing out of all this...NO COLD WEATHER ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Uneventful and nice.

Please remain abreast with your local media resources since conditions can change very rapidly given the dynamics that the atmosphere contains today...you'd never know it to step outside though.

Spring is Springing in a BIG WAY

Image: Moon this morning at sunrise

After a respite from daily blog posts due to the fact that there's not much to write about when all we have is 'cold weather'...opportunity has now arisen for some morning musing. "Uh-Oh!" you say? You bet. That means active weather is on its' way...and in a big way.

Looks like the first Florida Spring Storm is on its way. Please note, this is a very complex scenario unfolding...therefore I'm leaving this very simple and to the point. Besides, I'm a bit rusty on putting thoughts on "paper" again.

TODAY: A nice day in store. For the most part our gradual warming trend will continue. However, as is always the case in the early spring temperatures become an issue. That is, if one is east of Merritt Island the afternoon sea breeze drops the temperature considerably during the afternoon. Therefore, even though areas west of M.I. will reach well into the 70s today..east of M.I. it might initially start to warm...but with ocean temperatures in the "50s"...coastal afternoon temperatures will fall into the upper 60s...and almost generically around 68 degrees during peak heating while inland it can be a good 10 degrees warmer. In any case, expect just some high clouds today with a very light SE wind.

A frontal system will be entering the panhandle early Thursday and a low (or serious of them) will form along the front in the Gulf and train across the Central Peninsula. That's about as simple as one can state what is to come. These low pressure systems along with interesting windfields aloft along with a huge slug of moisture will produce some interesting weather. Okay...here we go:

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds with very mild temperatures in the low-mid 60s across the boards with a light SSE wind.

THURSDAY: More mid-high level clouds with an increasing wind from the south at 10-20mph. to start the day. It's a close call though...because our friends in N. Florida are going to be getting slammed with the rain and storms. A harbinger of things to come. And they WILL come. Sometime between 12pm-3pm the rains will move in and they will be here to stay for a while!

Expect initially they will be in the form of thunderstorms (fingers crossed)...but as rain continues the atmosphere will stabilize too much for 'thunder'.

MORE ABOUT THURSDAY: 1) I wouldn't be surprised to hear about flood advisories being posted, and 2) We may end up in either a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. I'm guessing the latter! Wind fields look nearly excellent for a tornado potential by late in the afternoon on Thursday as a strong southern branch will be streaking overhead in combo with directional shear and diffluence aloft. The limiting factor for a more assured tornado threat is the lack of instability. However, I believe at the beginning of this "event" there will be more instability than we have had in any previous event this winter. So it is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED to remain abreast of the weather conditions via the media or weather radio (surely you have one by now!)

GOING INTO FRIDAY: Once the rains begin they will be here to stay. And we aren't talking little, dainty sprinkles. These could be heavy, torrential rains (periodically speaking)...so hold on to the raincoats and umbrellas...heck...might want to buy a canoe for this one. Expecting rainfall totals to easily be over 1" and perhaps up to 3-plus inches in some locales

FRIDAY: Thunderstorms..or possibly just lots of rain..pretty much all day with a healthy SW wind around 20mph gusting to 30mph at times.

SATURDAY: Looks like the rain will be slow to move out, but once it does it will be gone for good. It's a total guess as to when it will end...but I'm guessing now sometime around late morning.

Clearly refinement of this blogcast will be required with time. I've written this post without even the latest data...so I may be well off-base. Stay tuned!!

Clloudy Then Rain

Today will be characterized by mostly cloudy skies this morning as an upper level impulse moves overhead this morning. Clouds will break some by late this morning, but in general, it will be at least partly cloudy by afternoon with a high near 70 except right along the immediate coast which will be under the influence of the nearby very cool ocean water.

 

The big change begins later tomorrow as a more vigorous disturbance approaches by late Wednesday afternoon. Rain should be much more likely overnight into Thursday which will have a high chance of rainfall...and maybe some thunder.

 

Cold Mornings - Very Cool Days Be Gone!

(Image: Been saving this one for a time when we would be in a prolonged "no weather' period)

The highlight for this week is that there is nothing to write about. A 'non-event' cold front will pass through Brevard County early this evening between 6-8pm and clear the state by sunrise Tuesday. As alluded to yesterday, very little weather associated with this front. An increase in clouds and maybe some unmeasurable amount of rain in a few spotty locations...and even that is stretching it.

Otherwise, the weather pattern will continue status quo. Very generally speaking, other than a high around 67 near Canaveral today...the rest of the week can be characterized with: lows right around 40 along the A1A corridor and lowering to the mid 30s as one works inland and toward the Big Lake. Afternoon highs in the low to the lower mid 50s Tuesday-Thursday...warming to the upper 50s by late week and perhaps the very low 60s by the weekend. As usual, the further south one goes the warmer it will be...but not by much. All in all, everyone will experience temperatures below what one would normally expect to see in Central and South Florida this time of year.

High pressure will dominate the entire Gulf of Mexico beginning Wednesday through the weekend...with minor fluctuations during the period. This will result in winds going from NW to occasionally straight westerly. But no strong winds, no prolonged freezing temperatures (if any south of Daytona), no rain. Surely there'll be some mid or high level clouds to work into the equation with time...but in essence...very benign and cold mornings and very cool to eventually just cool afternoons sums it up through next weekend.

"Shoot The Messenger"

(Image: Don't Blame it on Rio...rather Nova Scotia)

There's the culprit up there by Nova Scotia (see image). The low exists in the mid through upper levels - up to jet stream level..and it is the flow around the "what seems to be a permanent fixture" that is giving us this very cool/cold weather. Things become less clear and vary quite a bit more as one works down to the ground as far as low and high pressure systems goes...but that is the overall predominant cause of our temperatures of late. Will it move out soon? Not for about 11 days. And as such, the mostly progressive pattern we've been in has been stifled...any storm systems to approach this area in the next 10 days won't be coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico but rather from a much drier continental direction.

Pretty chilly start to the day, but not as bad as was thought it would be. Most areas were in the mid-upper 30s west of the rivers, but Canaveral only got down to 42. Slight warming trend today with a very light north wind with a high predominantly on the high side of the mid-50s...around 57-58 area wide. Occasional high cirrus clouds will be abundant earlier in the day...but could very well decrease as we work toward noon and thereafter. A great day for the "races" in Daytona...but bring your Snuggie...or preferably, a coat. Wind won't be a factor today..and in fact it could be almost downright calm at sunset.

TONIGHT: Not as cold as last night, but as mentioned yesterday the extreme interior will still be pretty darned cold. The immediate coast from Canaveral and south and east of US1 couldmanage a 48 tonight...but well inland (and more toward the west side of the state) 35-40 or is much more likely.

MONDAY: Warmest day until next weekend, sad as it is. After a pretty cool but tolerable morning the temperature will be on the rebound as we work toward noon. Looking for a high tomorrow around 67 degrees with increasing high clouds ahead of the next cold front late in the afternoon...winds going from very light to a good 12-18mph out of the SW by shortly after noon time. Not bad really. At least it won't be a dank, ocean wind tomorrow...heck, if we could eke out enough sunlight we could be flirting with 70...but unlikely any where north of Sebastian.

MONDAY NIGHT: Looks like the cold front will be stretched diagonally across the state from near Jacksonville - Ocala - Brooksille around 6-7pm. By this time it will assuredly be pretty cloudy...but who cares...it'll be dark anyway and we have a new moon (very close to it anyway) so there's nothing to see. Rain? Chances are we'll be seeing a 20 or 30% figure for rain chances popping up in the media..but I'd give it no more than 10%..and that might be generous. Not expecting any accumulations even if it does.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will have gone through by sunrise with rapidly clearing skies (if they aren't already clear at sunrise). Temperature will be very cool to cold throughout the period, but nothing out of the norm (per this winter...but below what one would normally expect this time of year..on average). Averages are just that though...averages. That implies that sometimes it's warmer..sometimes it's colder. Just so happens to be that it's been the 'Sometimes Colder" option a LOT this winter. Overall, coastal lows in the low-mid 40s with highs in the mid-upper 50s...very slowly warming toward next weekend. Dry throughout the week and into the weekend.

BUT HOLD ON....the end of the tunnel is looking more likely to be in sight. By February 24th the true end of the tunnel might be reached. At least as we work toward March. But things also get much more interesting...our next true shot of a good rain, if it ever gets here, could be in the form of potentially severe weather. That is SO far out from now though...but indications at least are that the solid freezing line could be up into Tennessee if not further north as we work into the last week of February. Given we'll be approaching March by then...any cold spell will be short lived.

Quick post today due to time constraints. Everything is falling right in line from yesterday's post. As expected, we still have the clouds around early this morning. They will gradually clear out as we move toward noon time, as coverage is still pretty extensive across the central and southern peninsula. They are decreasing from north to south though as drier air moves in. Timing upon running a satellite loop would place clearing between 1-2pm...but with a little mixing they could clear out somewhat soon. Otherwise.....

TODAY: Cloudy to start with eventually clearing as we work into the afternoon. As mentioned yesterday, we might not even see 50 degrees today, or if so, by a hair. I think we'll eke out that hair from Canaveral northward. Further south toward Satellite Beach and Melbourne it's much more likely. We nailed the forecast low right on the head for Canaveral. Most areas were around 40 this morning...and of course colder when going further north. Although it could reach 50 to low 50s it's still going to feel pretty cold with a good NW breeze going.

TONIGHT: Skies will have cleared and high pressure will be stretched all across the northern border of the Gulf of Mexico. Colder air will be pulled down from the north due to circulation around this high as well as down the backside of the mid-level trough as it pulls further away from the state over the Atlantic. Temperatures will drop accordingly.

(Image: Decided just to throw a picture of "Lola" in this morning. She finds solace on the pillow side of the lap desk)

SUNDAY: Overall, this will be the coldest day for a while. Very chilly with widespread mid-30s west of the Indian River the whole way south to the Big Lake. Still think the A1A corridor will be the warmest...but regardless...we could see 38 degrees here with very light winds as high pressure will be nearly overhead by sunrise under clear skies. Further south toward the Big Lake some jet stream cirrus could be stream aloft...but nothing of much consequence. Believe Sunday afternoon will be a little warmer than today though...getting into the mid-50s about everywhere..with upper 50s from Melbourne and points south.

MONDAY: Another cold morning..but not quite as wide spread. Believe the mid-30s will be confined to the ultimate interior (or spine) of the state with low 40s more of the rule. A1A corridor could actually be in the mid-upper 40s from Canaveral and points south. Clouds on the increase by afternoon Monday as the next cold front pulls into the station from the Southern Plains states. The front will cross the Central Peninsula late in the day and be accompanied by a lot of clouds and maybe a couple spits of rain just barely reaching the ground..but I wouldn't expect enough for an actual measurement in the old rain gauge. We could get into the low 60s by a hair on Monday...which will be somewhat nicer...but nothing to write home about...if you know what I mean. Besides, with the clouds around ...dependant on the timing of the clouds..upper 50s may end up being the rule.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Continued cold mornings and very cool afternoons with highs eventually reaching the low-mid 60s (the further south one is..the warmer it will be). The extreme east coast will be appreciably warmer than the interior the entire week. Hopefully this will be the last prolonged cold spell of the winter. With stress on HOPEFULLY.

I took a peak at the crystal ball extended forecast for the end of the month. If you can believe it, the GFS model actually had the freezing line the whole way up into Canada (rather than along the Florida-Georgia border as it will be this upcoming week). That's a MAJOR change..so don't know how much credibility to put into that one. Regardless, it's getting to the time of year that cold spells just don't last that long. We can still get a real cold one, but they don't last long.

Just need to survive this week.

Shiver My Timbers... Snow in the Deep South!

(Images: Satellite imagery at 11:30am and 11am Sfc Plots with approximate low/fronts)

Some areas in the Deep South are receiving snow...areas that haven't seen snow in over a decade! A very complex scenario is unfolding this morning as far as trying to 'divie up' where it could get above 60 degrees with SSW winds today. For now, everything seems to be pretty much on status quo with yesterday's thinking. Only change is that I believe the warm front will make it through most of Brevard County by 4-5pm...and if this happens we will see a brief warm up at a very odd time of the day (very late afternoon). We'll know for sure when the wind suddenly becomes SE then very rapidly veers to the SW and strengthens into the 20mph range within a matter of just 1 1/2 - 2 1/2 hours. It's going to be a close one though from Titusville and points north (namely between Titusville to just south of Daytona seems to be furthest north the warm front will ultimately reach)

And things will continue to happen FAST today into tonight. The surface low will be just off the west coast near Tampa at 1:00pm...and six hours later it will already be exiting the east coast right near Cocoa Beach.

Expecting even thicker clouds and eventually rain to be on the increase from North to South...and from West to East throughout the early afternoon. Cape Canaveral and points south might not actually see any of the true rain until the 3-4pm time frame..whereas further west and north...even the Orlando area will experience it appreciably sooner than that. Once it's here though, it'll be here to stay...for about 3 1/2- 5 hours. I wouldn't make any plans for outside activities at 7pm...that's for sure. Between 6-7:30pm seems to be the time frame that east central Florida will bear the brunt of whatever is going to happen as far as rain goes. I think there's supposed to be movie showing outside tonight...sort of like a "movie on the green"...somewhere in Brevard...have fun with that one.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: Rain will have been tapering off from Northwest to Southeast during the mid-evening hours but it will be continued cloudy for a while longer. The wind will quickly shift to the WNW to NW immediately following FROPA (frontal passage) and the temperatures will drop by 7-10 degrees within the first hour of that event. The cloud forecast is a little trickier. But believe the majority of clouds will have begun to clear out by sunrise.

SATURDAY: A cold one for sure although nothing record breaking. It is possible that from Melbourne to Tampa and points north we do not reach 50 degrees on Saturday after starting out around 40 along the coast. For real?! If it does reach 50 along that line..it will be by a hair. Any remaining clouds will be on the clear during the late morning hours as strong high pressure fully exerts itself down the peninsula with a punch of NW wind gusts in the 18-28mph range.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Shiver my timbers. The wind will die down appreciably as the high pressure center begins to move over head...thank goodness because it's going to be pretty cold. The A1A corridor from Canaveral south just might eke out a low of 40, but I'm more inclined to lean more toward a low of 38 and only from Melbourne Beach south holding at 40. West of the Banana River expect wide spread mid 30s and even lows 30s in some pockets as far south as the north shores of the Big Lake. The remainder of the day will remain mostly sunny with high in the mid-50s and with very light winds it will seem like a blessing after what Saturday will have wrought.

MONDAY: Another cold start to the day with freezing temperatures in spots across much of the peninsula under basically a calm wind. I think the coast might actually be a little warmer though than Sunday morning as this will be more a drainage, down the spine of the state scenario which typically leaves the A1A corridor anywhere from 7-10 degrees warmer than west of the Banana and especially the Indian River.

That's enough for now, but in case your interested...don't plan on packing away the coats anytime soon. Another re-enforcing shot of 'more of the same' is in store for later Tuesday-Thursday or Friday. Let's just get through the next 36 hours...don't want to bite of more than we can chew.

"Dixie Dumping" - Cold For the Month?!

(Image: 8:30am Satellite Image - Enjoy "what" while it last?..huh?)

I think the Atlas will launch this morning..but what's there to enjoy "while it lasts"? (you know the saying) If one enjoys very cool/cold weather then you'll be in heaven for a LONG time. Okay, the sun is out now, but it got down to 41 on the porch this morning while PAFB was reporting 40. Temperatures were right on track ala Tuesday's post...although it didn't get quite as cold inland as expected...but only by a few degrees. Just away from the coast it was in the mid-upper 30s. It's still cold...but not freezing unless one heads toward the panhandle.

Okay, so about the time the sun will be at its prime today those clouds you see on the satellite image will be moving in. As a result, the high temperature will held at bay and remain in the mid-upper 50s. Given those clouds are coming in, it might actually end up being cooler than yesterday (which had full sunshine) by a degree or two. Winds to remain NW but not as strong as yesterday.

TODAY: Sunny this morning with increasing clouds beginning around 11AM-noon time. Cool with a high in the mid-upper 50s with a noticeable NW wind, in the 8-18mph range.

TONIGHT: Not as cold under a good blanket of high and mid-level clouds. All areas of the state will be noticeably warmer than the last two with wide spread 40s across the boards. Warmest along the east coast with continued NW winds but decreasing in strength.

FRIDAY: Start out the day in the mid-upper 40s under a dense overcast with rains approaching.

Low pressure which is now taking shape in the extreme western Gulf this morning will be moving steadily east and approaching the state on Friday. A warm front ahead of this system will evolve across the state but likely never make it further north than a Sarasota-Sebastian line....and it is this front that will act as the precursor of things to come during the day. Very generous isentropic lift along/over this barrier will result in widespread rain along and north of the front. First around the Big Bend of Florida then spreading east and south (and more directly related/along the warm front) during the morning hours as the low pressure system approaches and exerts its force across the front.

Expect that once the rain starts, whether one is up by Ocala..over in Tampa...or south to West Palm..that once the rain starts it will be around for about 12 hours. Heaviest rainfall totals will be right along and just north of where the warm front decides to set camp. At this time...it looks like Central Florida on a line from NE Polk County east to Cocoa Beach area is in for as much as a 1" + of rain...with a secondary area from Ocala-Jacksonville.

Could be worse though. It looks like snow can be expected from Dallas - much of Louisiana-South half of Mississippi-South half of Alabama- and much of Georgia starting this morning through Friday night. Heck, we can even throw in that possibility (although minimal) into the mix for the NW Florida Panhandle.

Temperature. It won't be quite as cold as was feared during the rain. Thus, no sleet (particularly due to warm upglide at the 950-800mb level over head along the warm front). But due to prolonged period of preceding cloudiness before the rain...then evaporative cooling..then eventually rain...it will be a cold rain here..but if we're lucky around Canaveral it could get into the mid 60s. But that's a BIG "IF". As always, cooler to the north and warmer to the south.

Wind: From a Tampa to Palm Bay line and points north the wind will likely never achieve a southerly component at all (again, all contingent upon where the warm front ends up). Instead, the wind will become NE for a while until the low moves well into the Atlantic and high pressure reasserts its influence over the state.

FRIDAY NIGHT: The low pressure will track almost right along wherever the warm front lays across the state and exit off the east coast round 11PM -1AM. But it could rain well in the wee hours of the morning, mainly right along the east coast from Melbourne Beach, north to Daytona.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Saturday could dawn with residual clouds around from backwash behind the low as it moves away, but for the most part it will be partly cloudy if not better with brisk NW winds..and you know what brisk NW winds in the winter means! More cold for Sunday morning. Sunday will likely be even colder than this morning was for a vast majority of the state with mid 30s encompassing a large area and right around 40 along the A1A corridor from Canaveral, south.

THE FUTURE: They'll be more to talk about in the coming week(s) ahead. Already there are indications that at least two more systems will be affecting the area with cold impacts in the next 10 days...and beyond! But just thought I'd throw this little gem in...but do it with a grain of salt or dash of pepper. We might not see 70 degrees for the immediate east coast north of Canaveral for the remainder of February. That really is off the wall though...and seems highly unlikely. But note...that would only be from Canaveral north...right along the coast.

Cold For A Week And... Will The Atlas Launch?

(Image: Satellite Imagery at 11am shows approaching conditions from the west)

In a nutshell, enjoy today...while it lasts. Some nice little breaks in the clouds right now (as I type at 12 pm) over east Central Florida from Titusville and points south...but that won't last for long. A strong cold front is approaching the state today...which will put an end to any hopes of spring being right around the corner for quite some time.

TODAY: High temperature could reach the mid-70s from a Melbourne on the east coast to inland of Naples on the west coast and points south line...low 70s along the east side of the state south of Titusville but cooler the further west and north one goes ...It seems a weak warm frontal type boundary passed overhead and will remain just to the north from Volusia on the east coast to just south of Crystal River on the west coast for the remainder of the day.

Accompanying that boundary was some Virga (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) from Canaveral over toward Orlando which was evident on Tampa's radar scope...but that has since moved on. The wind is gusting out of the south to over 20mph across much of the southern part of the state..and those winds will be realized more locally by 2pm ahead of the approaching COLD front. And I do mean COLD in every way. As we work into the mid afternoon a rain shield currently approaching the west coast near Tampa (and already over land north of there) will be moving in. First hitting the Tampa area, then Orlando...then eventually all of Brevard (north part first then working south with time) by 3-5pm. At first the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground..but it should become felt by 5-6pm. Totally overcast conditions will precede the rainshowers...as will gradually increasing winds out of the SSW-SW by late afternoon. If one has stuff to do outside..."Get'r Done" before sunset if along the east coast and north of Melbourne. Areas further south of a Sarasota to Brevard/Indian River County line could hold off on rain until after sunset. Lucky dogs.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW: The warmest of temperatures for Wednesday will occur during its first hour...i.e. midnight -1am...as was mentioned yesterday. Then it's Bombs Away for the mercury on the thermometer. The cold front will have cleared the entire state by sunrise. Continued cloudy until right after FROPA (frontal passage) as strong NW winds harbor in the cold/much drier air. Cold wind chills will definitely be a factor ALL DAY tomorrow with a high probably we will not be getting out of the low 50s. I wonder if the Atlas will be able to launch from Pad 41 in the morning?! I'm giving it a "no go" due to winds.

THURSDAY: Very cold all day. Won't be surprised to hear freeze advisories being issued as far south as Okeechobee in the interior portions of the state and especially from Orlando north for all areas. Extreme East Central Florida should escape a freeze though..with a low near 40 degrees. But west of the Banana River toward Cocoa expect a rapid drop off into the low-mid 30s by 3am....with continued breezy conditions. Actually, the wind might be the saving grace from getting to freezing from Orlando-South. If one has plants to protect..I'd start today in whatever procedure you probably have already established. We're getting good at that this year, unfortunately.

FRIDAY: Another cold start to the day...with only a minor rebound in temperatures. Still don't think we'll see 60s though...even though another system will be winding up in the Gulf and approaching the area. This low has been shown for two days now (by the GFS model) to track across the Southern part of the state..and the latest run depicts this even more so..even further south in fact. Pretty darned unusual.

Expecting a cold rain to be induced by weak isentropic lift ahead of the low across much of Central Florida by late afternoon with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Because dry air will already be in place..the rain may actually evaporate before reaching the ground...but feel that it eventually will. Timing on this possibility will most assuredly need to be refined as the time draws nigh. I was actually wondering if we'll be hearing reports of sleet at sometime during the late Friday/Saturday "event"...but so far I think we'll be okay on that one.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: Regardless of where the low pressure crosses the state and just exactly when..it looks like pretty much a guarantee that with its passage we will again be greeted by a reinforcing cold blast straight from our good neighbors in Canada to last until at least Monday.

I blame it all on the Canadians. Apparently they are very efficient packers...because they've remembered to bring the weather with them. Where's a Hawaiian when you need one?!

More Cool To Cold Days Ahead

(Image: The palm and vine, back when they were green. After this winter it's all brown now)

Cold start for most everywhere this morning across Central Florida except the extreme east central portion (along/east of A1A). For instance, while Melbourne was 40 degrees Canaveral and Patrick AFB were 51. All areas as far south as Miami were colder than the immediate vicinity. But shortly after sunrise everyone caught up and have since equaled out with temps in the upper 50s for the most part.

TODAY: Far from stellar...but for a winter day one can't complain. Lots of high clouds today continue streaming overhead as of 1pm..right at max heating time. Therefore, the high temperature today will struggle to make it out of the lower 60s. There is a weak surface 'bubble' low of the coast which will have just enough influence to keep the winds backed to the NNE until after sunset, but they will remain very light. Circulation around this low will continue to filter in the cool air well after sunset.

TONIGHT: Continued light NNE-NE wind all night, but not as cold. Inland will be 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning was. The immediate coast will be warmer too, but not quite as significantly so.

TOMORROW: After a warmer start to the morning...the afternoon will be pleasant as well. But not as nice as one could hope. Thinking now is that it will be cooler than previously thought with a high in the low 70s under filtered sunlight. Clouds will be on the increase by mid-light afternoon as the next system approaches but we should remain dry during the daylight areas. The west coast from Tampa north..and the panhandle are much more likely to see some rain though before sunset.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY: It's likely that the warmest time during this period will be around 2am..yup, in the middle of the night. Clouds will thicken up...and a cooling rain will make the overnight hours potentially crummy but good for sleeping. I'm seeing some possibility of thunder with the system on TV...but I don't see it. The cold front will have likely already passed by sunrise...and strong cold air advection will be in full force during the day, Wednesday. The temperature is unlikely to rise much at all (if even) during the day...and the WNW-NW winds gusting to 20-25mph will make it feel even colder than the sub-60 degrees we'll have all day. NOT FUN. Clouds should be on the wane as we work toward noon time at least. But it's going to be a true winter day. But no freezing temperatures at least.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Continue the cold streak sums it up. No appreciable warming for quite some time. Even just prior to the next front's arrival near Saturday we won''t warm up all so great. Essentially, I'm preparing for lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s...eventually the 60s by Friday. Inland areas can make those morning lows in the 30s though.

SEVERE WEATHER: At this time, it seems unlikely. We were too stable in prior fronts to generate severe weather here, and this time we look to be even more stable. Would like to at least hear a thunder rumble...but for now I would be very wary of placing any bets on that possibility. All in all...typical El Nino weather. Very cool...periodic cloudy spurts...and benign.

Did I mention, after Tuesday Night's and Saturday's System there'll be another one already formulating in the western Gulf with its eyes on us once.... again? For shame.

Very Cool The Next 24 Hours - But No Blizzards Here

(Image: Latest Satellite image depicting cloud cover around 9:30am)

We're right on track as far as temperatures goes from Friday's post, but the clouds are definitely hanging around more than expected. Latest surface data and the KSC sounding shows (1) Dew points across the area are dropping off nicely this morning...hence..even drier air today (2) Strong subsidence inversion exists just below 850mb trapping any remaining atmospheric moisture at the lowest levels (hence, the stratocumulus clouds). (3) Mid level 'trough' pushing south overhead (sort of like an elevated cold front)

LAST NIGHT: With the clouds coming in, overnight lows didn't drop off as much as they could have. However, it didn't affect the blog forecast as far as lows along the coast goes. We still got down to the upper 40s. It was the inland areas that were spared from the expected low 40s as a result of the "cloud blanket"...and they saw mostly mid-40s instead.

TODAY/TONIGHT: Still think Monday morning will be the coldest of mornings as was alluded to several days ago. Also, the train of thought continues with the notion that we won't reach 60 degrees today..or if so..for maybe an hour (or two at max). Clouds you ask? Good question! As you can see by the attached satellite image there is a healthy dose of them...they are shifting from north to south..at least that's how it looks from the satellite loop...although the winds at that level are from the west. Believe that with the ground level dew points falling that these clouds will begin to erode from the bottom up but that they will not disappear entirely..especially along the coast. The RUC is currently showing that they shouldn't even be there...at all!...The NAM picked up on them a little better..but just barely. All in all - they both 'failed" on depicting this cloudy scenario. I believe they will continue to be around all day for areas east of I-95 with some breaks during the mid-afternoon...but not looking for any full sun today. With that thinking in mind, believe that the temperature will have a hard time reaching 60s degrees. It seemed we would have a hard time doing that even when not considering there would be clouds around...so now that notion is just being reinforced.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING: Should add that these clouds might also be being enhanced by the secondary weak trough of low pressure rotating around the back of that monster storm which impacted the DelMarVa area yesterday as related to above. Believe that (1) after the trough passes overhead today and (2) the low moves yet further off to the ENE, and (3) strong high pressure builds south from near James Bay -- being enhanced along the Appalachians AND snow covered, cold land mass to the north at the surface...that this will be enough to clear us out by or shortly after sunset (hopefully sooner). The end result of all of the just stated is that tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning of all for the entire peninsula as drainage flow down the spine of the state ensues without the cloud blanket.

Sure hope the launch can go..but honestly, I'm not 100% sold on the notion that it will just yet. We'll have a much better idea though well before bed time. Once the lower clouds clear out they'll be gone for good (at least in the short term). It's just IF they can clear out. Going to go on the optimstic side though (at least more optimistic than I was last night at bed time)...and give it the 'green light'.

TOMORROW: After a cold start, tomorrow should be warmer than both Saturday and today will be. In fact, it could be 5-9 degrees warmer tomorrow with a light north wind and partly cloud skies. Far from "pleasant'...but considering we're not buried in snow or having freezing temperatures...I'd be ashamed to complain. Be that as it may...these temperatures are not 'pleasing'.

TUESDAY AND POINTS ON: Winter has definitely come to stay as a series of fast moving systems continue to generate along the southern branch El-Nino like jet stream. The result is less than stellar conditions for a prolonged period of time. Tuesday will be the best of days...with milder sunrise temperatures as the wind will have swung to an onshore component by Monday afternoon...albeit a very light one. By sunrise Tuesday the wind will be more southeasterly and eventually SSW during the course of the day...resulting in a temperature in the mid 70s. Was tempted to say upper 70s but I believe there will be too many clouds that will offset sufficient heating for a warmer day. If we're going to see any rain it will be sometime after sunset Tuesday night through about one hour within sunrise Wednesday. After that? You guessed it..colder temperatures again, but not down to freezing (literally speaking). After another two days of very cool temperatures (back to the 40s for lows) another system will be on the approach. The surface low with the next one after Tuesday/Wednesday's (i.e., on Saturday) might actually pass across South Florida. This means we would not even see a warm front preceding its passage as we have been getting all winter...thus, no great warm up before it.

As for severe weather? This is always the most fun part to try to forecast...so you might get a hint by the statement that " I don't think we'll be having much 'fun'"...but it's definitely worth watching! Just don't see any for either of the next two systems. Wind fields look pretty impressive for this next one, but as has been the case this winter..and even more so for Tuesday/Wednesday...thermodynamics will be the pits...abundant cloud cover induced by isentropic lift ahead of the system will greatly inhibit instability across Central Florida. But don't give up the ship just yet!

Menacing Mid-Atlantic Mid-Winter Menace

(Image: radar as of 12:55pm EST)

As mentioned earlier, there would likely be a blog update posted. For the most part, surprisingly, one is really not needed. So this will be brief. If you haven't heard by now, the areas around the nation's capitol is in for 1-2 FEET of snow, and the store shelves have rapidly emptied in preparations. Turn into the news or TWC...you can't miss but hearing about it.

Locally, the only feature that stands out in my mind at this time is that the surface winds across all of Central Florida are remaining backed and are not veering toward the SW just ahead of approaching line of storms. Winds just off the deck are increasing as well. Noticed a gust of 40 mph out of due south last hour at Clearwater just ahead of the line. Therefore, expect even stronger than anticipated low level helicities stronger than previously thought. If we had good (meaning very unstable) thermodynamics across the area today we'd probably be in a tornado watch right now. But such is not the case...therefore, no changes to previous thinking. Timing even remains pretty much on cue. Our main threat will be strong wind gusts if one happens to encounter a storm. Remember, just because the threat is real does not mean it will happen right where you live. One can experience very little other than some rain, whereas just a few miles away all hell could be breakig lose.

The lower cloud deck moved right on in is as expected, and such will be the case sky wise for the rest of the day. Some rain showers are popping up across Central Florida to the south which are rapidly moving off to the ENE...but it appears those will remain south of the immediate area, but S. Osceola County, S. Brevard, and Indian River Counties will probably get a sampling of this activity.

Otherwise, still expecting the worst of the weather to be approaching-- if not occurring-- between 5-7pm across most of East Central Florida. The Orlando area of course will be in 'it' 1- 1 1/2 hours sooner.

Anyone with at least a little common sense might want to tune into Channel 13 or 9...or The Weather Channel if you don't have a S.A.M.E. Alert'able' Weather Radio to keep abreast of the latest...particularly after 3pm...as things could get pretty active in these parts by late afternoon. It's worth noting though, on the brighter side, that little to no lightning activity is being detected at this time that will impact Central Florida in the very near term. Most of the lightning is heading to the West Coast south of Sarasota. This area though needs to be monitored as it might be just what kicks things into high gear as it moves just north of due east. Hence, for the more immediate area, it might be the south 1/2 of Osceola and Brevard Counties (and points further south)...that experience the meanest punch later today. But like I mentioned, if things start to look nasty the local channels will likely be covering the event live as things unfold.