"Surf's Up!" But It's a Small Swell

(Image: Averaged moisture/winds aloft show wave one is passing and another is on the horizon)

Surfers know that the waves associated with an ocean swell come in sets. The same can be said for atmospheric waves of energy associated with a storm system or synoptic weather pattern but which are much more complex due to underlying thermodynamic principles (at a bare minimum).

REVIEW & SYNOPSIS: Central Florida is in between waves this morning as a fairly rare July swell swoops overhead. The first wave of the set came across yesterday and is currently exiting the area as the next one is already on the horizon and breaking on the reefs along the Alt 27 corridor from near Steinhatchee/Deadman's Bay toward Ocala.

On a broader/ general scale, high pressure is center over the Central Gulf of Mexico with another center well east of Bermuda. The systems are just barely connected by a ridge of high pressure near the surface that runs well off the East Coast and through the Florida Straits. Over the state and north of this axis exists a generally flat to slight troughiness in the mid-levels. The source of the swell actually exists well out in the Plains region which is generating the waves and sending them toward the SE U.S. They dampen out as they approach Florida and are just barely providing us with a passing blow...but just enough of one to make things interesting (surfable).

TODAY: First off and most notable is the PWAT value from KSC's latest sounding. Remember when PWAT was down to 0.86" (dang low)? Today it is at 2.24" which is remarkable from a moisture perspective and reminiscent of the values we had two weekends ago when it was cloudy all the time. As such, it is cloudy as I write at mainly the mid-levels..but areal coverage has been decreasing during the past 3 hours per IR satellite loops.

It was quite hot yesterday in some locales with Melbourne tying a record high of 97 (Miami also tied their record high of 95). KSC also reported 97 with a heat index of 115 degrees before the storms moved in. Such will not be the case today due to the lingering cloud cover and generally 'stirred up' atmosphere overhead in the wake of yesterday's wave. Overnight low in Canaveral was 80 degrees (PAFB eked out a 78 for an hour right at sunrise) under the clouds which prevented release of the heat into the atmosphere.

Today will be yet another anomaly type forecast unrepresentative of the typical sea breeze/lake breeze initiated type convection...at least initially. Once again, we will have a later onset of the sea breeze today..but not anticipating it will be quite as late as yesterday. Somewhere between 12:30-1:30pm at latest. Highs will make it to near or slightly above 90F across Central Florida, but further south where the moisture just moved in since last night but skies are much clearer they will be flirting with records once again.

In general, skies will clear more during late morning as the first wave moves further away, heating commences, and NVA (negative vorticity advection) clears out. But the next wave will already be on the way...so wax up. Just how this wave will break is in question though.

Everything hinges on (1): how much clearing (and thus heating) we get and thus when, where, and how strong lake and sea breezes release in earnest and begin to have an impact on the surrounding geographically prone areas, and (2): how much this approaching wave will dampen or even strengthen during the course of the early afternoon and thus stirs the atmosphere throughout the layer proportionatly.

The very general low down though is that we can expect a broader area to receive rain today. Cape Canaveral received 1.39" inches yesterday whereas areas very near by received only a trace to none. There was none south of Melbourne - West Palm yesterday as an example. But the first wave opened the moisture gates so today expect they will have a good shot at storms too...just later in the day into the early evening hours.

With heating of the day with some cloud clearing, with what's left of the approaching impulse (wave), sea breeze initiation with heating, tons of moisture around, and nearly 0 convective inhibition we can expect a shot a storms pretty much anywhere along the east coast from West Palm to Jacksonville..the further north one goes the earlier it will be.

Not expecting severe storms, but wouldn't be surprised if some SWS (Special Weather Statements) need to be issued for either localized flooding where some training of storms could occur or for strong wind gusts. On the other head, it wouldn't hurt to be aware that there is the ever so remote chance of a funnel or waterspout should the primest of small scale mesoscale accidents occur.

TOMORROW: Probably the same scenario at play but with much different potential results. For now, we'll leave it there will be another chance of storms since the swell will continue, but just how the wave breaks when it reaches the coast cannot be determined until that wave materializes.

WEDNESDAY: The swell ends and we start to return to a more climatogically generic weather pattern and surface ridging resumes in earnest initially dead overhead then further north toward Friday. There are signs that much of Central Florida could be in an atmospheric 'shut down' later in the week with no storms or showers to speak of...but at this time such notions should remain mute.

Will Late Morning Activity Yield To Early Evening Results?

(Image: Light thundershower today at 11am as seen from a distance to the WNW in Lake County)

SYNOPSIS: It's beginning to get progressively difficult to ascertain just exactly where the frontal boundary across the southeast states landmass even exists per latest surface observations across that region. What portion remains appears to have gone stationary and lays somewhere across S. Carolina...but the main player as far as large scale atmospheric circulations is concerned appears to be the location of the dominating high pressure axis' at various levels of the atmosphere all of which are either directly over or south of extreme S. Florida. As such most if not all of peninsular Florida is experiencing a general west to east flow along the northern periphary of the anticyclonic circulation.

TODAY: Somewhat discouraging to watch the KSC sounding data to progressively decrease PWAT values since last night despite the fact that water vapor imagery would indicate from first appearances that it would have increased. Expecting a somewhat non-typical for July pattern for today through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

As can seen by the included photograph there is some activity already to the WNW from as close as far Western Seminole county continuing NWN-NW toward Ocala and other locales yet further west well into the Gulf. The activity at this time seems to be lined up along a boundary of sorts which is progressively pushing south...especially over the Gulf waters.

Much like yesterday I'm once again expecting a later than normal onset of the sea breeze from Cape Canaveral and south . Further north it's possible the sea breeze will not kick in at all. This was the case yesterday and it appears such will it be so today as well. As a result, the temperature in Canaveral at 11am is right near 90F already without the sea breeze's cooling affects.

The rain showers further west and north actually began prior to sunrise and areal coverage has expanded ever since the initial first little shower initiated. Despite the presence of this expanding area as it approaches East Central Florida it appears that it will erode (disappear) the closer to the coast it gets due to the low PWAT values over the area. So that's it for the period heading into the late afternoon hours.

Later in the day, expect that as the atmosphere becomes more unstable with heating of the day and lake boundaries begin to interact that more storms will initiate primarily along a line from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa which will be easily visible from Brevard. But the sun will shine throughout the day until very late in the afternoon.

EARLY EVENING: Here's where it gets interesting, but everything is contingent upon whether or not higher PWAT will sink into the immediate area by sunset. Despite how close these storms will be there will be a fine line between where it can eventually rain or not. Indications are that activity will exist in the early evening near or south of Daytona which will work along the by then developed sea breeze near the Cape and progress south into Brevard east of I-95 near sunset which could last for an hour or two after that time. The southern extent of just how far south this activity will last is being portrayed by a range of models (as of the last I looked) to be between Cape Canaveral to Melbourne Beach. Further south activity looks unlikely until one gets way down there toward West Palm Beach.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Clumping these two days together for now because over the very broad scheme of things little will change as far as the placement of the ridge axis' and PWAT values could change significantly as moisture will be available in only unforecastable 'puddles' splattered about here and there. But the general consensus is that there will greater available moisture over Central Florida both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. With nothing really occurring to offset thunderstorm development there's no real reason why storms once again wouldn't be possible.

WEDNESDAY: Transition to a different pattern of prevailing deep ESE-SE flow at all levels particularly by Friday with more to come on just exactly how that will affect this area as the time approaches. Was going to provide a "heads up" or "this might be possible" discussion for that time frame but this has already gotten too long winded. Leave that for another day and page to turn in the continuing saga.

Minor Changes Yield Minimal Results

(IMAGE: without availablitiy of the KSC sounding, we resort to the less-than-impressive Tampa one)

Sometimes a minor atmospheric change can significantly alter the weather for a specific locale, but that is not the case for today (at least not at this local level).

THE SYNOPSIS: On the synoptic scale everything is materializing as anticipated yesterday. The low pressure system that was just off the North Carolina coast is moving NNE pretty much parallel to and just offshore the coast. This system will continue heading toward coastal New England as it becomes essentially entrained (absorbed) into the midlevel trough and associated surface cold frontal boundary by later today during the course of its journey. The surface front is now almost right on the coast for the NE states but drags back toward the SSW-SW-and eventually west as one heads south through Virginia, the Carolinas, and into north central Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Meanwhile, high pressure has the expanse for almost the entire Southern U.S. from the Florida Panhandle, along the Gulf Coast, across Central Texas, and west to Arizona. The trough along the U.S. East Coast has temporarily put a minor break in the ridge strength over Florida and pushed it well south toward the Florida Keys. As such the low and mid-level flow is from the SW.

LOCAL ANALYSIS: I was not able to obtain upper sounding data from KSC (XMR) this morning as it hasn't updated since yesterday morning on the internet (sob). But based solely on the latest satellite imagery / model initialization/ surface observations / and local visual clues observed upon looking outside it is apparent that the suppression and drying affects from yesterday's ridge placement aloft has proportionately abated as the axis was dislocated south of the immediate area over night. The NWS MLB apparently still has the goods on the sounding data though, and per what could be picked out of their discussion combined with water vapor imagery it's safe to say that PWAT values have increased since yesterday in the mid-upper levels although the temperature there is still on the "too warm" side for robust convective initiation and sustenance. Additionally the lazy, hazy look to the sky has decreased and thus visibility has gone up.

TODAY: With placement of the ridge axis further south we have a morning land breeze. Models are all showing a SW-WSW flow to persist through the next 48 hours at least, but I believe that the pressure gradient at the surface will not be strong enough to maintain that wind component once the land/sea thermal gradient and resultant pressure patterns gets established. But it will take a while for the synoptic pattern to be overcome. In other words, a late start to the sea-breeze which yesterday commenced during the 12:00 noon hour. Thinking now is the sea breeze will not commence until 1:30-3pm. As a result, even the A1A corridor will feel the heat pinch with high temperatures solidly in the lower third of the 90s if not a degree or two warmer than that.

Rain?! There is actually two periods at which we could get the smallest of chances of rain today. Period one is contingent upon if the sea breeze starts up as late as was just hypothesized. If it does indeed hold off until later, there will be a chance some showers could go up right along the immediate east coast as far south as Martin County (near Palm Beach) within the first hour of sea breeze initiation due to coastal low level wind convergence, the longer time for instability to amass, and the slight increase in atmospheric moisture which has occurred over the past 24 hours. The folks further south by Martin County will have the added benefit of a Lake Okeechobee/Atlantic breeze collision but moisture is lacking more down that way so this is questionable for them. The second period will be when the west coast sea breeze has worked across the state and confronts the east coast sea breeze which, assuming it does indeed initiate, will be east of Orlando close to I-95 during the early evening hours (post 6:30 pm - 9pm). This activity would drift slowly back toward the coast as well anywhere from southern Volusia through Indian River Counties.

TOMORROW: Looks like a repeat of today with only localized parameters and subsequent atmospheric adjustments in the level of available moisture during the course of the next 24 hours being the factors needed to ascertain just exactly how, when, or if we will have rain chances and if so, how high they will be. For now, if we rely solely on last night's model runs..the chances for rain tomorrow look bleak at best.

EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK: The ridge axis will remain to the south through Tuesday then progress north to Central Florida by midweek. Although steering currents appear as though they will be less favorable for the rain chances along the barrier islands on Wednesday they could very well increase for folks west of US1 since it will bring a return to higher PWATs upon its return.

Warm, Hazy, and Primarily Dry in the Rain Department

Essentially no changes in the line of thinking from yesterday's rambling. The low pressure system that was near Bermuda several days ago continued to move WSW as was noted previously and is now rotating just off the North Carolina coast to the north of Cape Hatteras. The circulation is readily apparent both aloft and at the surface via every form of satellite imagery and surface observations. A cold front extends NNE to SSW from NE Ohio, through Western Kentucky and Tennessee, and south into Central Mississippi. Ahead of this front high pressure at the mid-levels is spread across all of the northern Gulf from Eastern Texas eastward across all of North Florida. Central Florida is under descendant motion around the southern periphery of this high pressure bubble for the day.

At first appearances it seemed that things would be fairly primed for storms today, or at least headed in the right direction for them by around sunset, given the current stability indices and the fact that the PWAT level has gone up from yesterday's low value of 0.86" up to 1.56" as of noon time. But a lot of that moisture is trapped below the mid-level ridge axis mentioned above (which is visually apparent by the hazy/dull look to the sky). Additionally, the convective temperature is around 99F which simply is not going to happen. The presence of this high pressure is even more apparent across North Florida where the heat is on and the air is even drier (thank goodness for small miracles otherwise the heat indices - the apparent temperature - would be at the meltdown level up by Jacksonville as if 97 degrees alone isn't bad enough).

TODAY: After a morning land breeze (from the west)...the A1A corridor is now working on a sea breeze with winds from the ENE north of the Cape (Oak Hill) and ESE-SE winds south of the tip of the Cape (Cape Canaveral southward). Expect these 'cooling' winds to maybe make it as far west as Orlando by early evening. Inland afternoon temperatures will be in mid-90s and probably feel pretty darned uncomfortable with little in the breezy category to provide evaporational cooling from the sweat glands. This is the kind of day that Wet-n-Wild was made for. About the only thing to look for is if some rain showers go up in Northern Osceola County to very near Orlando and maybe western Seminole County region within an hour or two of sunset. Maybe those folks will luck out. Maybe not.

TOMORROW: The atmosphere still has some work to do to recover to operable levels...but the antidote won't be arriving by tomorrow afternoon; thus, we'll sit yet another day in the waiting room and pray for the best for Sunday. In other words it will be much like today. About the only difference is that at this time I think tomorrow will be the warmest (might as well say "hottest") day of the weekend and upcoming week for our land-locked neighbors.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: The cold front will work it's way into the southern Deep South and begin to align in an east-west orientation as it lines up along the remaining ridge over Florida, which by the way will also be pushing down into extreme South Florida. Looks like what is left of the front will grind to a halt across Southern Georgia and Alabama while the ridge axis will line up across the state from roughly Miami to Naples with its western extent well out toward the central Gulf, at least initially. Such placement of the ridge (assuming this is what will occur) does not exactly place us in a favorable position to receive a moisture feed from the tropics to juice up the atmosphere. Regardless though, the subsidence (descending motion) should abate and place us in at least neutral to positive relative upward vertical motion. Additionally, some pockets of moisture will gradual sneak in during the course of Sunday and Monday which through virtue of the nature of the Florida Peninsula and its sea breeze/Lake breeze collision reputation will finally take the storm gods off the gurney.

But back to full-bore climatologically normal levels of liveliness? At this time it's not looking likely...not until the ebb and flow of global atmospheric eddies makes some additional adjustments. They'll come...eventually...but for goodness sake "Will storm season ever arrive in earnest this year?!".

Holy Smokes - It's Christmas in July

(Image: Surface temperatures at 6am delineate our "Arctic" plunge)

Can you believe it? Did you feel it? It's actually 'cool' outside this morning by our summer standards! Temperatures right at sunrise are as cool as 66F at the Space Center and Melbourne is at 69F which is just one degree off from tying their record low. WOW. I noticed the difference immediately upon stepping out the door at sunrise. Was looking around for some fluttering snow flakes to catch on my tongue but only swatted at buzzing mosquitos.

REVIEW: In some ways, it's not entirely a total stretch of the imagination to believe that a 'backdoor front' of sorts went through in conjunction with a mid-level wind surge from the NNE yesterday that occurred at 1:10pm. I noticed a line of low topped cumulus and some widely dispersed very light rain showers offshore accompanying this line of clouds along the leading edge of this "impulse" per se. There was a VERY long, dangly rope cloud formation on visible satellite imagery that was quite discernible accompanying this atmospheric transformation which extended several hundred miles east of KSC way out into the Atlantic. Wish I had saved the satellite image. These formed along the leading edge of drier air moving in at the mid-levels along with the slight / temporary pulse.

The end result this morning is easily seen on the porch thermometer as well as the latest sounding where PWAT has fallen to an unseasonably low level of 0.83" (down from 2.00" + inches just 2-3 days ago) and winds at all levels are from the ENE-NE. It is likely that it's the low moisture level that is truly responsible for the low'ish' morning temperatures which is allowing heat to escape into the atmosphere. Within the hour it will be just like any other day temperature wise once the sun comes up in earnest.

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure is still retrograding WSW-W toward the North Carolina coast this morning but is doing so slower than earlier anticipated. Circulation/subsidence around this low and high pressure over the land mass of the mid-Atlantic is creating the dry NE winds aloft over all but extreme South Florida (where rain showers abound across the Keys) and such will be the case for the remainder of the day. This same system could be responsible for some strong storms today particularly for eastern North Carolina where the presence of this same low pressure system will create speed and directional wind sheer over a developing lee side trough during the afternoon. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep though...and moisture isn't the greatest..so probably the biggest threat would be strong wind gusts in the strongest of isolated storms.

TROPICS: Tropical depression formation was officially proclaimed just about 2 hours ago in the extreme West Gulf. This low appears as though it will landfall near Brownsville in extreme SE Texas. Its circulation is barely visible on IR satellite imagery or even water vapor loops...but is evident on radar to some degree. It won't take much for it to become Tropical Storm Bonnie...but what a waste of a name. Whether it is a low end tropical storm or not will be strictly a matter of naming a closed circulation for the most part since not much more than minimal intensification appears likely. Regardless, it will be bringing more rain to already saturated soil which is not good for the already flooded folks in south Texas where rain has persisted since even before the passage of Hurricane Alex last week.

FORECAST: The low off the mid-Atlantic coast will slowly approach the North Carolina/Virginia coast then merge with a front/trough which is approaching the NE states as we speak. Say goodbye to the heat wave in the Northeast at long last by tomorrow. The low will essentially become absorbed with the front as it takes on more of a northward drift in the process. The base of the trough will deepen into Georgia then move east and begin to lift north as we work into next week. As a result of the trough..a high pressure ridge will be shunted south to South Florida where it should remain through Monday and into Tuesday. This will provide for a SW-WSW steering flow over Florida which normally I'd rejoice in with anticipation of inland thunderstorms being steered toward the coast. One problem though...the air mass does not look like it will particularly moist given the wind trajectory aloft...but this could very well change so let's just wait and see for another day or two.

TODAY: Dry and mostly clear with a scattering of low topped cumulus at best. Despite cussing and cursing data and models I see no features at the surface or aloft to discuss. Just can't squeeze water out of a rock.

TOMORROW: Ho hum...Arizona comes to Florida. More of the same but warmer inland with highs around the 95-96 degree range. Granted, not as hot or dry as Arizona, but you get the drift. Zzzzzzz....

SATURDAY: By Saturday and particularly Sunday the coast will feel a notable temperature difference particularly around noon time when I believe at this time that a morning land breeze (yes, at least we'll have one of those at last) will be slow to wane and allow temperatures to rise above what they have been for quite a while before the sea breeze kicks in. Rain chances pick up from Ft Pierce and points south...as well as along the Panhandle, but the immediate Central Portions might still be hard pressed to wring out a storm from the atmosphere. I'm playing the pessimist though in regards to there being very little chance of rain.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: The big question mark period in regards to storms. Granted, the atmosphere will have moistened some by then pretty much statewide...especially in the North third of the state closer to the low pressure trough in that area...but moisture from the south will be slow to arrive in full. Or will it?

We could actually end up in a phase where we have storm well to the north and south with nothing in between (Central Florida)...other than isolated activity that would pop up where boundaries collide in the vicinity of the larger lakes or where the sea- breezes collide well inland. We'll just have to wait and see how things evolve during the next few days.

Retrogression To Yield Rain Chance Progression

(Image: Very typical view one would expect to see any given summer day..but not today)

Strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region is the key player today for most if not all of the eastern U.S. seaboard, resulting in continued very hot conditions for our friends in the NE U.S....shifting south toward the mid-Atlantic states in coming days.

Accompanying the high pressure system in the broad scheme of things is a low pressure system WSW of Bermuda. This system has been retrograding toward the WSW-SW during the past few days and will continue to do so through Thursday. Meanwhile, a large low pressure system revolves up by James Bay with an accompanying trough of low pressure to begin developing down into the Great Lakes and eventually into the northeast states in coming days. The retrograding low in the Atlantic will eventually approach the N. Carolina coast as we work into Friday and merge with the developing low pressure trough from Canada as the nuisance high pressure system plaguing the N.E. U.S. weakens slightly and retrogrades toward the Mid-West states as we look toward the weekend.

Closer to home, it appears that a weak inverted trough near the surface is lined up right along Florida's east coast this morning. There was a small pocket of mid-level moisture accompanying this trough and as a result some very small rain showers eked on-shore just north of West Palm Beach during the early morning hours but are rapidly diminishing. KSC sounding came in very dry for this time of year at 1.35"...with an easterly flow from the surface as high up in the atmosphere as heaven. Hark the herald angels sing.

TODAY: As was briefly mentioned yesterday, it still appears we could get a 'wind surge' of sorts in the mid-levels by mid-afternoon which will likely not manifest itself to the casual observer at all...but could be accompanied aloft by a patch of thin clouds and maybe some distant light rain showers well off shore in the Atlantic which radar might or might not even pick up (if that even happens). It will be a dry day though and sunny for the most part and pretty much entirely. Actually, it looks like about the only place in the state that could get any truly measurable rain will be along Florida's Southwest Coast maybe as far north as Sarasota. Temperatures along the coast will run in the upper 80s and inland in the low-mid 90s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Slow transitioning period. About the only highlight for this period will be warmer temperatures by a few degrees, particularly inland...with highs running in the upper side of the mid-90s. During this time, particularly Friday, the retrograding low which will be near the N. Carolina coast by later Friday will be merging with a low pressure trough extending from Canada. The two will work in tandem and force the high pressure that has been over this same area lately to re-evolve/retrograde further west. Thus, the heat in the N.E. states will finally dissipate. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will be entering the Southeast states (but much further north of Florida). A very small rain chance enters the picture for Friday during this evolution of events...mainly for the inland areas.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Back to normal. Rain chances increase to the 40-50 percent range (at least that's what we'll probably be hearing through the media)....but most of that chance will be away from the coastal communities...at least initially. Particularly on Sunday a combination of a high pressure ridge axis extending east/west across south Florida and the approaching but waning frontal boundary could actually provide folks east of U.S. 1 with a chance of thunderstorms as well.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: High pressure ridge axis directly overhead (Central Florida) with a weak flow/moist environment pattern in place...in other words, a typical summer pattern both in thunderstorm activity and temperatures.

Rain Chance To Dwindle Through Thursday

(Image: Sunset along the Banana River, Cocoa Beach)

Say goodbye to the boundary-ville-o'rama. The persistent boundaries at all levels of the atmosphere are just barely discernible this morning...and if one does exist in the upper levels it appears to be down near the extreme Southern tip of the state. The dominant feature during the next 3 days will be strong high pressure pressing south from the mid-Atlantic through the New England states as mentioned yesterday.

Morning sounding is already depicting the affects of the high pressure with an east to ENE component in the wind from the surface through 10,000 feet and a lower PWAT at 1.83" (down from the 2.00" of recent days). The lower PWAT is also visually apparent by looking at the sky this morning with considerably less mid-level cloudiness compared to this time yesterday.

Today: Expect the influence of the high pressure to exert a greater influence across the Central portion of the state as we work through the day. Temperatures will be warmer today as a result of the decreased cloud cover although the immediate coast should remain in the tolerable range with onshore flow off of 79 degree ocean temperatures. Best rain chances across the immediate region will be inland during the afternoon...but even that prospect isn't looking too impressive by any means. The only chance for rain along the coast will come from a rain shower coming in off the Atlantic before 3pm...but again, that chance is pretty remote.

Can't say the same for the folks further south from West Palm down to Miami though. The high pressure won't have quite the influence down that way today and possibly tomorrow either...so that area basically from Lake Okeechobee and points south still could see the rain and thunderstorms. And boy did they get it down that way yesterday! One location in Broward County received over 5" yesterday....you'd never know it up this way though.

I suppose it will be nice to at least see some sunshine today. I mean, if we're going to have all this atmospheric moisture around but all it does is make the sky look 'blah' it might as well be sunny. By the time we work into tonight and tomorrow the mid-level winds should increase from the E-ENE for a day or two as the pressure gradient in the mid-levels increases for a short time...but other than that down here at the surface we won't really realize what is going on upstairs. Even numerical model guidance has latched on to the overall scheme of things with only a 10-20 percent chance of rain spelled out by them through Thursday (after today). It is worth noting though that for today the last one I saw showed a 50% chance of rain for the Melbourne area....I'm discarding that though.

So when does the next true chance of rain approach? At this point, there is some hope on the horizon...and it's not all that far away. For now, yet another pattern change is in the cards beginning late Friday through at least Tuesday. This change will manifest mainly as a return to what would be considered 'normal' for this time of year across the Central Peninsula. That being, afternoon and early evening thunderstorms across the boards...most likely inland (of course).

We still have to clear the first half of today though before I'll believe more affirmatively that our rain chance will be close to zero for the next 48 hours. Yet another not so exciting day in the world of sky watching. Looking forward to at least seeing those towering cumulonimbus in the sky once again, but I'm not driving down to the hordes of people and traffic in South Florida to do it.

One More Day of the Same Old, Same Old

(Image: KSC (XMR) Sounding reveals lots in moisture and little in winds)

Not surprisingly, today has started out like many mornings lately...cloudy. Rain is persisting across all of the south half of Brevard though as of the 8am hour. This area extends west to the Gulf Coast where a much larger area of rain and embedded thunderstorms persists over the Eastern Gulf.

In the broad scheme of things nothing much has changed. At the surface it appears that a low level convergence band set up right where the east/west line of rain exists...but in the mid and upper levels our remnant trough axis exists further north from the Florida Big Bend on the West Coast to just south of St. Augustine on the East Coast. It appears this axis will remain in place through the majority of the day light hours today.

As has been the case for the past several days, extensive cloud cover will inhibit appreciable day time heating; thus, thunderstorm chances are limited without the presence of stronger low level/surface boundaries which are created near the larger bodies of water when we do have sunshine/heating. Soundings from KSC (XMR) and Tampa show that PWAT values continue at 2.00" + inches averaged throughout the column...and winds at the mid level are very light from a westerly component, but only through a very shallow layer at best. For the most part, the winds aloft are close to non-revealing at best.

TODAY: As has been the case for several days now, it is close to impossible to determine where rain will eventually will fall once the day gets going. Believe the rain across South Brevard and west of there through Osceola, Polk, and Hillsborough Counties will eventually wane through late morning. Cloud debris as a result of these rains as well as from the more extensive/stronger activity over the eastern Gulf will again keep all of us under a blanket of clouds as we work into the early afternoon hours at least. Persistence would dictate that the general pattern of continued cloudiness will probably exist through the remainder of the day with such a moisture laden environment.

Thus, like the past few days, the areas across East Central Florida most likely to receive additional rain will be contingent upon minor ripples running through the mid-layers, none of which are detectable at this time. Probably the region to end up getting any respectable storms today will be way south of here toward West Palm Beach - Southern Lake Okeechobee area - Miami (where cloud cover is currently less extensive) , and then points toward Ft. Meyers up toward Tampa on the West Coast (closer to the Gulf activity), with weaker but nonetheless wet conditions developing further north along the East Coast as far as the Brevard/Volusia County line.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: For now, just clumping this entire period together as it currently appears that overall atmospheric moisture reduction (PWAT) will make an honest effort to begin as soon as midnight tonight across the Central Portion of the East Florida. Not going to elaborate on the many interesting things that will be going on to instigate the weather change, but in a very general sense strong high pressure will be pushing south across coastal North Carolina and the mid-level boundary will get pushed well south toward the keys and eventually thin out to the level of non-existence. Can't say the same for points further south though...not for at least one more day since they will still have this boundary as a player for the atmosphere to work with. By Tuesday mid-level flow from the east should begin up this way which will push any remaining shower activity toward the west coast. It currently does not appear that there will be a threat of shower activity to come in off the Atlantic after this transition has completed...so we could actually end up being totally dry east of I-95 and probably a much larger area than that after mid-day Tuesday until late Friday or Saturday.

Have A Safe and Great Fourth!

(Image: Computer hiccups show a VERY complex weather pattern over the U.S. this morning!! :-)

Very little has changed over the course of the past 24 hours across Central Florida, and it appears that a persistence based forecast is the best solution to use for today's weather guess.

Pretty much everything has evolved as expected it would in yesterday's discussion. A broad trough of low pressure extends east-west across the entire latitudinal breadth of the the Central Florida peninsula, especially at the surface. In the mid-levels is where a trough axis is actually slightly more discernible...and that is basically from about 30 miles north of Tampa eastward toward Titusville, extending from a non-tropical low pressure system well off to the west in the Gulf of Mexico. This mid-level 'axis' will remain almost directly overhead today then push further north toward the panhandle after sunset.

Latest KSC (XMR) sounding and surface observations continue to show light winds from the surface all the way up to nearly 30,000 ft and along the aforementioned axis' coupled with a PWAT again around 2.00" within a slightly unsettled environment.

Two things of note at this hour (8am) are: (1) most of the clouds across the region are of the mid-level nature and there are not as many high clouds. Clearing appears to be in progress over North/Central portions of the area and expect this to continue southward toward noon time especially after the sun gets higher (at least in the short term), (2) a line of thunderstorms which was severe warned came on shore along the West Coast south of Tampa toward Port Charlotte the past hour, although it weakened immediately upon reaching the coast. That area appears to be associated with a weak disturbance/perturbation rotating around the non-tropical low.

TODAY: Much like the past few days we have a soupy air mass but lack a trigger. A lot will be contingent upon just how much clearing we get through the late morning as well as what remains of the the disturbance that triggered the activity off the Florida West Coast during the past hour as it rotated onshore within the very broad cyclonic circulation across the Central Peninsula. Best bet is that this 'disturbance' as it were, will shear apart as it swings further toward the north and east and aligns with the already existent trough axis in place before reaching the immediate area.

But given there is some clearing occurring...and that this should continue without the presence of extensive high cloudiness ...we could get some cumuliform development going in earnest before noon time followed by eventually widespread shower development over the entire region. The problem with even this line of thinking is that the mid-level clouds could redevelop more extensively with help from the sun before the cumulus and resultant rain showers can.

Given that lapse rates are pretty pitiful today within a close to saturated environment, not expecting strong thunderstorm development. What this amounts to is pretty much status quo from yesterday, but if it didn't rain where you were yesterday and it does rain on you today it will be a wetter day...that either means you were lucky yesterday or unlucky today...but that's about the only difference.

As usual at this time of year under these circumstances diurnal activity over the interior with the limited heating of the day will result in the greatest likelihood of rainfall for that area today...but everyone will eventually be privy to getting a shot at the wet stuff. Although rain chances will diminish significantly between 8-9pm (Fireworks time)...it can't be completely ruled out.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: Nearly every model has a different depiction as to what will occur in days ahead....varying from being continued soggy to unusually dry. The NAM develops a very respectable low pressure system over the Bahamas during the next 18-36 hours and lifts it toward the north just about 120 miles off the Florida East coast...which although would be very close by would result in infiltration of dry air down its western flank, whereas the GFS..although it does recognize 'something' going on out there..leaves the questionable area as an open wave that passes right over the state carrying a pool of moisture along our static boundary along with it. I'm more apt to lean toward the GFS solution for the time being and therefore not opting to see any illustrious drying to occur during the coming days. Eventually, somethings got to give...and the fact that the models are so all over the place shows that a surprise is in the offing, but just exactly how it will manifest (either as storminess or pleasantries) is close to impossible to ascertain at this point.

Treading Water Without a Trigger

(Image: Lightning near the community of Eden in Osceola County, FL)

Point blank, initial implications are that today will end up being much like yesterday, although there is a small hint that rain could manifest. But lets look at a few things before going into more of the "ifs, and, or buts" shall we?

SYNOPSIS: Four things stand out - (1) Per the KSC latest sounding, yes the air mass over Florida is not lacking by any means in the moisture department at neither Tampa or KSC. PWAT levels are at 2.00+ inches which is contributed at all levels of the atmosphere with no real steering to speak of the whole way up to 30,000 ft; (2) A low-mid-upper level low is drifting WSW well off the Gulf Coast of Tampa which initially was indicated as only a surface low yesterday in the Northern Gulf south of Tallahassee; (3) a variety of ill-defined trough axis' range in location from South Florida at the surface, South/Central Florida in the mid levels, and near the Florida/Georgia border higher up in the atmosphere; (4) A fairly decent boundary of convective parameters exists further north along the FL/GA border area as well where the cutoff of atmospheric moisture exists

TODAY: Much like yesterday the day has started out overcast. An area of showers/thunderstorms exists off shore both coasts as of 8am. And like yesterday, the same problem exists for convective initiation. With the overcast sky conditions surface heating is about at as much as a minimum as it can get for this time of year. As a result, we do not get the rising air currents which results in a definitive sea breeze and/or lake breezes to materialize to the levels which would otherwise instigate low-level wind convergences at the localized level. There are also no apparent upper level disturbances/ positive vorticity maximi (?) to stir the pot and create atmospheric eddies.

Essentially what we is happening is that we are treading water in an atmospheric pool of moisture with no where to go. But there is a small glimmer of hope for rain initiation today. As mentioned earlier and as discussed yesterday, I believe the surface boundary did push south of even Lake Okeechobee yesterday...the mid-level trough seemed to have pushed down to south Central Florida as well. Latest radar and water vapor loop trends seem to be indicating that this axis has become an extension of the low pressure system in the Gulf, and it appears to be retreating back to the north as a "mid-level warm front" (very loosely speaking though). There was radar echoes along this boundary over South Central Florida extending across the entire peninsula earlier but they appear to be waning as we speak as they move northward with the retreating boundary. At the same time, it seems that a weak outflow boundary of sorts seems to have reached the immediate coast during the past 30 minutes as a result of the also waning convection well off shore and as a result the wind picked up out of the ENE for a short time and breaks in the clouds are now evident. Sure enough, the sun just peaked out for the first time today. Is this an omen of things to come?

Expecting that whatever prospects we'll have for rain today will come from the northward propagating mid-level axis combined with the remnant outflow and cloud breaks which would come together across East Central Florida during the late morning hours. Not expecting strong storms although should they initiate lightning isn't out of the question by any means. It is a little overly presumptions to think that just because it didn't rain yesterday that it won't today either. (actually, it did rain during the mid-afternoon on a few areas over the "gator lands of the St. Johns River Valley basin").

The atmosphere beckons to be squeezed out..but in all honesty I'm looking more for an excuse for it to rain rather than one for it not to. All the crystal balls (models) are saying that it will rain over a good portion of our area today so that's a start, and that is hard to totally disregard. But other than there being gobs of moisture around I don't see any reason for it to do anything without a triggering mechanism.

I see the media are again hyping the rain chances (I guess that would be a given since all model guidance "says so")...but if I had my dithers I'd be disobedient again today and tell them that perhaps Mother Nature doesn't always know best. So prove me wrong Ma and give my ass a good whooping and "Let it storm, let it storm, let it storm". Should add that rain chances are not limited to only the afternoon and evening hours. It could rain about any time it darned well decides to until we can get a definitive 'cycle' at work...and that won't be until a large portion of the area receives some good sunshine for at least several hours.

FUTURE DAYS: Almost forgot, I have an inkling that better rain prospects will exist tomorrow and Monday. Whatever is left of the mid-level boundary should remain nearly stationary right along the immediate Central Florida latitude by tonight through Sunday. Numerical guidance literally paints the word "TSTRMS" (thunderstorms) for everyday this coming week across the interior portion. Believe that by Monday the extensive cloud coverage will not be as prevalent, surface heating will ensue, and the thermal/wind boundary collision engine will get a jump start to get the thunderstorm machine running in earnest once again. Details as to just how this will/could/might/maybe/should/possibly evolve will follow...

Lots to look at too in future days. We have another TUTT low in the Atlantic heading west and some inverted troughs to approach the area from the east-southeast in coming days with no real sign of the atmosphere being wrung totally dry in coming days. Each days apprears as though it will present its own set of challenges for the forecasters in Florida.

It Rained...Finally!

(My first storm photo ever taken at age 12)

The long awaited rainfall finally made an appearance last night around 10pm in Cape Canaveral...although light at this location (0.15") it was much welcomed. Not to short change the Orlando area though, where up to 3.50" was reported late yesterday into the evening.

Recap: The pattern shift which occurred last night is clearly evident when reviewing surface observations from Patrick AFB (PAFB). The wind went from the predominant ESE-SE of days past ..and suddenly went calm around 9pm..then shifted to westerly and was a bit gusty as the rain started. Apparently some thunder was heard further south as close as Patrick AFB where radar indicated heavier precipitation down that way but none was heard here.

Synoptically speaking: The ridge axis that had dominated our weather for so long, as was anticipated, has eroded well enough away with its western extent now off the extreme SE coast of the state. Likewise, the TUTT low has dropped to apparently just south of Cuba but is barely discernible. So what does this mean for today now that those inhibiting factors (for deep convection) are out of the way?

ANALYSIS: Morning sounding does indeed show a very moist atmosphere with PWATs around 2.0"(which is visually apparent with the mostly overcast sky condition) and a light SW flow just above the surface well up into the atmosphere. Radar shows a swath of very light rain extending across the Central Peninsula as well which is slowing working east and south into North Brevard. 500mb temperatures have dropped a few degrees (a reflection of the upper level trough) while the 700mb temperatures are holding near steady. Surface low pressure is in the extreme NE GOM south of the Big Bend in association with a somewhat diffuse boundary stretched all along the northern Gulf and across North/Central Florida. This low will move away from the state though and won't be a factor locally. It is worth noting that the GFS model wasn't entirely incorrect at developing a surface low somewhat close to this area as it did many many days ago. Not bad.

TODAY: It appears the surface boundary will sink to right across Central Florida this afternoon and perhaps toward the Big Lake region after sunset as high pressure strengthens into the mid-Atlantic region...but just above the surface the boundary will remain further north across the immediate central portion of the state through Saturday.

With all this said one might think that today could be a rainy day with plentiful storms, but I'm not ENTIRELY convinced. Believe extensive cloud cover in association with the mid-level trough will not only keep afternoon high temperatures down but also make it a little difficult for the atmosphere to destabilize sufficiently for robust thunderstorm activity...at least through mid-afternoon. I don't have a doubt some areas will receive some respectable rainfall and perhaps hear some thunder...particularly further south in Okeechobee and St. Lucie Counties, but current implications are not very impressive in the thunder department along the coast further north of those counties unless the clouds can break up sufficiently. But we'll take what we can get...which should be at least some spurious periods of light to moderate rain at just about any time in the next 24 hours.

It should be noted though that what steering currents there are (from the SW toward Lake Okeechobee) are originating downstream in an area that will receive sufficient heating for storm development. Should this occur, then storms could develop in that area and roll northeast toward the immediate coasts of Brevard and Indian River counties late in the day. The same reasoning goes for the inland areas...although that area will also have at least a little low level convergence to abet in storm development by late afternoon induced by lake breezes which would make thunder there a plausible prospect.

This isn't far from the reasoning proposed a few days ago when it was mentioned that we'd eventually have abundant moisture around, that we'd be hearing high chances of rainfall through media outlets, but which might only manifest itself in reality as extensive cloudiness. There is a chance that someone in Central Florida will eventually receive another good dousing today...but those areas will be of the select lucky few. My biggest hope is that I'm completely wrong and we'll get to see more active weather, per se...but for now...holding fast to this 'gut feeling' forecast.

Big Change Overnight Could Manifest as Storms Today

(Image: Hurricane Alex makes landfall)

Some pretty big changes have occurred overnight which could manifest as higher storm coverage today over the immediate area. This change first became evident last night from an observer's point of view when an outflow boundary just above ground level from an inland storm (manifested by a linear cloud deck) passed over Cape Canaveral at 7pm. It's been nearly 2 weeks since we've even seen an outflow boundary reach the immediate coast so I was eager to see what the morning sounding was showing. It is worth mentioning that believe it or not it hasn't been dry everywhere in the state by any means. There has been storms, particularly yesterday, all over the west half of the state the past few days...but you'd never know it without looking at radar or having a trained eye to see the storms from a distance.

Sure enough...the big changes are in the mid levels where two things stand out immediately: (1) The temperature at this level has dropped by nearly 5 degrees since yesterday; and (2) Moisture has greatly increased in this level. Total PWAT has increased throughout the column from yesterday as well. Additionally, the wind at this level, although very light (less than 10 kts)...is predominantly from a westerly component which is backed up by area profilers showing a westerly wind component beginning around 6000 ft (southerly below that).

Two other factors in play for today which have been referred to in earlier posts: (1) The TUTT low that was in the North/Central Bahamas has made a marked drop to the SSW and is now over Central Cuba in a much weakened state. The subsidence/dry slot around the NW periphery of this system could be a big negative for even better rain chances today though. Latest water vapor loops show that perhaps some drying in the mid-levels has worked into the south half of Brevard and all points south toward Miami in the past 2 hours (after the KSC sounding was launched). The drying seems to be working further west and north...but just how much this continues might be determined by factor number 2. (2) The mid-latitudinal trough...which also exists mainly at the mid-levels has made its way into the Florida panhandle and at this point will probably start to lay out in a more west-east orientation south of I-10 and reside this afternoon somewhere between I-10 and Ocala by late afternoon.

Maybe not so ironically, this is the same area that the level of apparent drying from the TUTT could reach which could result in a wonderful moisture gradient for the atmosphere to work on by late afternoon. The very fact that mid-level temps have dropped so much and moisture gone up at this level over the Space Center this morning proves its very existence near by. This trough will likely be the primary initial threat area for clouds/storms today before things get crazy over the remainder of the peninsula with day time heating. Cloud coverage this morning as of 9am is basically non-existent over the region other than some patchy high clouds...so heating and increased instability won't be a problem to set the wheels in motion by late morning. Just what happens from there will be interesting.

Given all of the above, it might be worth a trip into Osceola County today or maybe even closer to home toward the Indian River for some storm photo-ops...but in cases like today (just like any decent Florida storm day along the east coast) things will start to fall into the "watch on an hourly basis before making any commitments" category.

The main thing to watch today will be those mid-level winds and temperatures in later KSC soundings. I wish I could be making this post later in the morning toward noon time since by that time we'll have a better grip on how this afternoon will evolve...but then that would be more of a NOWcast rather than a FOREcast.

A lot will hinge today on what happens with the impinging subsidence associated with the remnant TUTT low and the extent of its influence down to the immediate local level.

Things to watch for today will be the possiblity of early convection onset (after 10:30-11am) close to the Indian River. With the mid-level temperatures having dropped so much and moisture increased this currently appears to be a good possibility. If it does get going, then a funnel cloud might not be out of the question along the leading edge of the sea breeze over the rivers. Expect storms to go up over Osceola County along the Florida Turnpike, Orange, Seminole, Western Volusia, and Okeehobee Counties by mid-late afternoon. Bascially, every where one would normally expect to have them.

After today a lot depends on what happens with an area of strong high pressure building across the mid-west and into the Northeast states. The NAM indicates that it will have no problem totally engulfing the entire east half of the U.S., including Florida, which would put most if not all of Florida in a drier, easterly flow and nearly rain free regime. On the other hand, the GFS continues its 'wet' scenario...keeping the mid-level trough across the Central Florida within an atmospheric pool of moisture and stormy conditions for every afternoon into the beginning of next week. It has also continued to depict spurious blobs of rainfall almost anywhere along the trough axis from Louisiana east to off the Florida east coast. It has been insistent on this scenario for days. Given the time of year I am more inclined to go with the lighter side of the GFS depiction...which would mean not a full blown "high pressure from the North take-over"...but not a total wash out either. But no matter which model verifies, at this time it looks like the best chance for the east central Florida coast to see some rain will be today and tomorrow. By that time hopefully things will look promising for continued better chances. We could use it.

Changes Are Slow To Manifest

(A Florida thunderhead wears a crown of pileus in the late afternoon)

Although there have been some minor changes in the past 48 hours they aren't of the genre that have influenced the local weather here on the ground. A mid-latitudinal level trough is weakly reflected at the surface as it presses east and south through the mid-Atlantic region into Georgia, and the TUTT low mentioned the other day continues to spin and drift westward and is now located over the north-central Bahamas. Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex has begun the anticipated turn toward the west as will likely make landfall on the Mexican Coast.

SYNOPSIS: We might be starting to see the affects of (1) the TUTT low as per latest from the KSC sounding as I write. Winds at the anvil level have picked up significantly out of the NNE since yesterday which appears to be induced by the circulation around the NW periphery of this feature. Water vapor loops are also showing quite nicely the circulation; however, the drying subsidence result of the low are also being reflected and showing to be encroaching on the offshore waters as we speak. (2) The trough traversing through the mid-Atlantic states and eventually into the Atlantic. As mentioned several times during the past week the GFS was indicating that this trough would push a cold front ...or a trough of lower surface pressures...into the Deep South and even Florida. The NAM has begun to fall in line with this scenario although not quite as aggressively. It does appear that the mid-level trough will make it down to at least Central Florida as we work into the weekend...however, dynamics associated with it are about as close to benign as one can get. Between the TUTT low and this trough the ridge that has been overhead, it now appears, will come to its inevitable demise by the Friday-Saturday time frame. Just exactly what will happen after that at the very local level is nearly impossible to ascertain at this point. But as we stay focused on the shorter term:

TODAY: Much like the past few days. The atmosphere has changed very little from yesterday and might have actually dried just a smidgen. Winds in the mid levels are nearly nil in association with the decaying ridge axis...where as much higher up they have really picked up out of the NNE. All in all, the start to the day should be similar to the past few days. Expect we can once again see some shower activity go up along the west shores of the Indian River (along US 1) and points west of there before noon time anywhere in Brevard or Indian River Counties, but don't anticipate these to be anywhere close to the 'strong thunderstorm' category. As we work into the early afternoon the east coast sea breeze will have set its wheels in motion and begun to propagate well inland toward the Orlando area...scouring out the immediate east coast of any possible rainfall as it does.

About the only difference the coastal communities might see from the past few is that we will not see the cirrus/anvil blow off umbrella overhead today by late in the afternoon...as the TUTT low inches in every so closely, drying aloft is increased, and the direction of the winds aloft will not be favorable for anvil debris transfer in this way.

On the other hand, the west half to 3/4s of the state will see their status quo of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, primarily west of a Lake Okeechobee-Orlando-Ocala axis...along with most of the panhandle region. This would include areas such as Port Charolette, Ft Meyers, Sarasota, Tampa, The Villages, and about anywhere in Lake County. In essence, the area LEAST likely to see good storm coverage or any strong activity is right here at home central (a.k.a. - east central Florida.)

FURTHER OUT: We haven't had rain in Cape Canaveral since June 7th! So when will it finally rain here and other areas near-by? I'll just say a sentence or two concerning this increasingly irritating subject. Nothing stands out and things are looking pretty pitiful. Nothing stands out to negate the fact that it COULD rain county wide...but then again, nothing screams "RAIN" either. I'm expecting to hear about rainfall chances increasing over the media in the next couple of days...but I have this bug in my ear whispering that this is going to be one of those scenarios where that although moisture in the atmosphere will be increasing, particularly by Friday, that it will only manifest itself as increased cloud coverage which will negate what could otherwise be a period of active thunderstorms. The proof is in the pudding so that say, so I'd really like the atmosphere to stir it up good and get things perking so we can get some tasty atmospheric samplings around here. But we need all the ingredients.

Greater Storm Coverage Again Today

What a change a few days can bring. That has been the case the past two days and this trend will ever so slowly continue as a number of unrelated features attempt to come together in a somewhat ambiguous, if not questionnable, fashion during the next 48-96 hours.



To start the day its seemingly no different than any other normal summer day across the area. I noticed a few scrappy attempts at cumuliform development as early as 8am this morning and although they seem to be dissipating already at this time it is still a sign of things to come (like yesterday) as we work into the afternoon hours. Latest KSC sounding indicates that moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere has increased quite a bit and temperatures at this level have dropped a degree or two. That's a good thing. On the other hand, at the mid levels is where the greatest drying has occurred in parallel with a slight warming at that level, which is not a good thing (as for as precipitation prospects are concerned). Otherwise, the infamous ridge axis remains parked across Central Florida in general, just a tad further to the north at the surface but more directly overhead to just a tad further south aloft.



Elsewhere, but of possible significance to our local environment in the upcoming 48-72 hours, is what is happening in other regions far from home. Three things stand out right away. (1) Of course, there's TS Alex..(2) then the cold front and associated upper level trough just now beginning a dig from Canada which in the near future will impact the east coast in various ways from New York to at least Central Florida.. (3) and finally another item I had inadvertently failed to mention yesterday is a TUTT low east of the Bahamas which has been circulating out that way for a number of days now and has been slowly creeping just north of due west. It's fun to watch on satellite and water vapor loops but has little active weather associated with it.



Keeping those items in mind we can briefly shift gears to the local area and today's weather makers. As noted earlier, the morning XMR sounding was warmer and driest in the mid-levels. This indicates to me that earlier day convection will essentially be held at bay to nearly non-existent. Steering winds at this level are nil...that is until we get up to the 20,000 to 25,000 foot level where they are about 10 kts from the west. PWAT values throughout the column are about the same as yesterday...but as noted earlier most of this is found either very close to the surface or way up there in the heavens.



There really is no reason why thunderstorms cannot once again erupt by mid-afternoon once sea breeze and lake breezes boundaries begin to interact under a generally light SSE surface flow regime. Like yesterday, storms will erupt along or just west of I-95 and move little to none. About the only difference I see the potential for today from yesterday is that the east coast could see some storms anywhere from Daytona Beach north to JAX under a weak west to east steering flow...but as one works further south toward Brevard areas east of I-95 will be hard pressed to see the wet stuff since any steering currents that exist (or will exist) will essentially be from south toward the north for any convection that gets going in earnest. Since the atmosphere is very moist very high aloft, expect that the storm tops (anvil blow-off) will hold together and spread toward the east and over the coastal communities. This means that by late afternoon into the early evening many of the beach side cities will be under a cirrus umbrella with a dark look to the sky as one looks west...at least this would put a damper on uncomfortably hot late afternoon temperatures when combined with the sea breeze. Any storm(s) that get going well enough to make a serious punch through the mid-levels could produce some small hail or close to severe wind gusts as they collapse, but for now it appears that any such storm will only manifest itself along I-4 in the interior away from either coast...not discounting the DAB reporting station however.



Expect to see other storm activity, although maybe not quite as potentially vigorous across interior Osceola County, almost anywhere in Orange County and Seminole, then further east and north the closer to Daytona one gets.



As we progress through tomorrow and into Wednesday things become even more interesting with regards to storm coverage / location potentials. It still appears that the trough along the U.S. east coast will dig at least as far south as the Deep South...in fact the evening GFS run was even more vigorous than any run yet over the past 4 days! Whether that comes to fruition in quite that fashion of aggressiveness or not, the combination of "a trough of sorts" along with that 'passive' TUTT low east of the Bahamas will at least erode the ridge at the upper levels that has loomed overhead almost entirely by Wednesday. This is important in that this would result in the upper level temperatures to cool by at least a few more degrees resulting in an unstable environment juiced enough to induce storms with a greater punch and lasting power...and with an increased number of them other than just the one or two Central Florida has seen the past several days. The GFS is STILL continuing to form at least a closed low circulation along the Florida-Georgia border by Saturday then strengthening that low as it moves off the southeast U.S. coast. Circulation behind this low in combination with high pressure building south along the Appalachian Chain pushes the trailing wind shift line (frontal boundary) through Central Florida by early NEXT week. Although the GFS has followed this train of thought for several days now...just as aggressively as ever...the timing of all these factors to come together has been pushed out be nearly 48 hours since it initially portrayed these implications.



The low down if we look at the very broad, unfinished picture is that storm coverage will increase most notably across all of Central Florida by Wednesday through Friday...there is no indication that the area from Brevard County and points south will see a strong push for storms to assuredly penetrate eastward right to the coast at that time...but on the other hand these are no pointers out there stating this couldn't happen either. That will be contingent more on daily if not hourly localized circumstances which can be fine tuned as we get closer to that time frame.

Current Changes Slow to Affect The Area

(Image: The typical summer afternoon view to the west which has been close to nonexistent for several days).

As has been the case for what seems like eternity the rain chances remain low today, although not as low as has been the case for the past several days. As discussed previously, a low pressure trough will be digging down the U.S. East coast for the early portions of the week which will most assuredly swoop a cold front trough the Northeastern states. Also, the high pressure ridge axis that was stretched from east to west across the Deep South and well north of the state has shoved south and is now directly over Central Florida if not a little south of the region. This ridge axis will waver north/south within the parameters of Central Florida through Tuesday as the aforementioned trough makes its final dig along the east U.S. coast. This process began to a very small degree yesterday and will continue through Tuesday...and as such, thundershower activity will be on a gradual increase but not likely affect the immediate coastal communities at least not through Monday.

Early start to some morning cumulus clouds, although sparse, are at least indicative of the gradual changes taking place this morning. Yesterday we saw a thundershower of two near I-95 in S. Brevard, and expect to see at least if not more of the same today as moisture ever so slowly is allowed to slowly increase in the next few days. This process actually began yesterday as reflected on earlier...but the moisture influx and weakening of the ridge aloft will become more apparent as we work into the upcoming week.

As mentioned the other day, the GFS was most aggressive with the east coast trough...and actually pulled a cold front into the peninsula. Nothing has changed in that light as of last night's model run...but the way in which this occurs (per that model) has shifted gears. It is now joining the trough associated with Tropical Storm Alex with the NE U.S. trough into one huge robust system...and as such draws gobs of moisture (and resultant storm activity) across the state beginning Wednesday-Thursday. Additionally, it was one of the 'outlier' models to actually draw Alex well north and east of nearly all of the other forecast models toward Louisiana. Believe this entire scenario, at least at this time, is highly unlikely and will disregard such aggressive behavior.

Regardless of that unlikely scenario, it does appear that once Alex moves yet further west and the east U.S. coast trough digs even more the ridge axis aloft will be close to non-existent or at least relax considerably if only for 2-3 days toward the middle - end of the upcoming week, which will result in what one would be considered normal rainfall/thunderstorm coverage over Central Florida once again.

Meanwhile, for today expect to see some thunderstorms sprout up, which like yesterday, will at least be visible from a distance at the coast, but will remain along or west of I-95. Because the ridge axis has sunk considerably south of its location late last week the steering current, albeit very weak, is more from south to north, thus any rampant offshore activity is unlikely to reach coastal communities. The surface winds have veered to more of a SE-SSE component as a result of the sinking ridge axis as well. Once the sea breeze begins in earnest this afternoon that should be enough to stabilize the atmosphere along the coast so that by the mid-late afternoon all the convection will be west of I-95. The most favored areas for storms today will be along the west side of the state from Tampa toward Ft. Meyers as well as all along the panhandle and toward just south of St. Augustine further north along the east coast.

"When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors"

(Image: Scenes we'd like to see in Central Florida again)

June 20th though the 26th is national lightning awareness week as declared by the National Weather Service. But for the most part this state has been nearly lightning free (although not entirely), particularly right along the east coast. But changes are lurking as we head toward the beginning of next week.

Almost no change in thinking from yesterday's post so not much to highlight. A high pressure ridge axis both at the surface and aloft extends from the Atlantic westward across S. Georgia this morning and into Texas. Unsettled weather continues in the Caribbean showing little sign of organized development.

Basically no change in this configuration through Friday and essentially Saturday as well. Of interesting note, as mentioned yesterday, is the trough of low pressure forecast by the GFS to dig along the U.S. east coast, especially as the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean shifts west toward the Yucatan and the high pressure ridge erodes from the west and shifts further into the Atlantic as we work into Sunday. It is worth noting that the GFS has not once developed the tropical area in the Caribbean into a full blown system during the past two days, yet on the flip side has been adamant on developing the east coast trough into a full blown frontal boundary that penetrates the Florida peninsula which would be quite a climatological anomaly for this time of year.

When all is said and done, it does appear at this time that a trough will deepen down the U.S. east coast during the course of the next 72 hours and the ridge axis will relax, especially as whatever happens in the Caribbean shifts west toward the Yucatan peninsula. This is 'important' for us because it will mean a change in the overall weather pattern across the peninsula beginning late Sunday which will notable by Monday afternoon.

In the meantime, persistence will be the ruling factor as deep layer / relatively dry easterly flow persists. By Sunday this flow will shift to more of a SE to SSE component and allow higher atmospheric PWAT values to encapsulate the region. What will become of the frontal boundary remains as much, if not greater, a mystery than what is happening (or forecast to) in the tropics. Namely because it would be extremely unusual for a frontal boundary, as it were, to penetrate Central Florida as depicted by the GFS.

When push comes to shove for the time being, at least through Tuesday, is that we will be undergoing some notable changes beginning overnight Saturday into all of Sunday as the ridge loses its prevailing influence and a trough develops down the Appalachian Chain into the deep southeast U.S. I have a hard time believing that a frontal boundary will actually make it this far south at this point, but do believe that regardless of whether that occurs or not an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity is in the cards beginning Sunday (initially for the inland areas) which will be more widespread and possible for even the east coast Monday through Wednesday. This conclusion will undoubtedly need to be refined as the time draws nigh.

A Few More Quiet Days in Store

(Image: What is left of a drive-in theater in 'no where' Texas. What is showing at this theater is reflective of what is showing in our atmosphere today...NADA)

High pressure reigns supreme across the Western Atlantic and the Deep South today as far west as across N. Louisiana and extreme Western Texas. Subsidence along the ridge axis which exists both at the surface and aloft will inhibit convective activity (thunderstorms) across all of our area today. In the meantime, an active storm pattern remains across the northern tier of states from far eastern Wyoming the whole way east to the Jersey shore. This is the area of interest, once again, as a train of severe MCS storm clusters treks along a stationary frontal boundary which is slowly sinking south particularly over Kansas this morning. This has been the case now for several days already as we down here in Central Florida experience a completely different set ofcircumstances of benign nature.

Today, no change from yesterday's thinking both in the short-term and as we work into the weekend. High pressure will be the dominant force in control of the weather across East Central Florida easily through Friday. The morning KSC sounding and the profilers easily confirm the dominant easterly flow both at the surface and aloft along with overall lowered PWATs and environmental subsidence inconducive for even a rain shower. Low temperatures will remain around 80 along the coast with highs near 89 in the afternoon before the sea breeze becomes fully established by noon time at which time they will actually lower to around 87. Temperatures well inland in the lower to mid 90s.

In the longer range as we head into next week this pattern will begin to break down as an upper level trough begins to deepen south from the Canadian Border and the Great Lakes (and into the northestern U.S) by Monday and the flow becomes more southeasterly both aloft and at the surface. Overnight land breezes (from the W-SW) will take shape by Monday or more likely Tuesday in response to this trough for the Florida east coast. The GFS model is indicating that rain chances could increase for our area commencing Friday or Saturday, but at this time I'll hold fast to our previous notion that things will remain relatively dry...at least for the east coast until early next week as the GFS has been overly generous with the precipitation fields in our area as of late.

For the tropics: Believe that any activity that does manage to coalesce into an organized entity will remain well south of the area...or of the state for that matter. It does appear that 'something', possibly of the eventually named form, could develop down there...but no matter what shape it takes there will be no direct impacts. Indirectly though, as this system progresses west into the Western Caribbean and the S. Gulf the low-and mid level circulation from whatever form it takes will veer from easterly to more of a southeasterly component which will usher increased atmospheric moisture into our neck of the woods...and thus increase the rain chances initially inland. By early next week the aforementioned trough along the U.S. east coast in combination with higher moisture transport..along with the usual sea-breeze convergence parameters at play with little to none convective inhibition will once again instigate thunderstorm develop across the state. This could be realized as early as Saturday for inland areas to a small degree as moisture amounts increase throughout the overall layers, but as reflected earlier probably won't be a fully viable reality until Monday or Tuesday as the diurnal land breeze/sea breeze cycle becomes fully established.

Convection Machine Shut Down Has Commenced

(Image: "Pant Alert"! Summer heat and humidity is not well tolerated by our furry friends")

The ridge of high pressure has become firmly established across the southeast U.S. this morning extending from extreme Eastern Texas through Southern Alabama and Georgia, in part, and most extensively into the Western Atlantic and across Georgia and South Carolina. This puts all of peninsular Florida in a deep easterly flow. Drier air resides upstream in the mid-upper levels over the Bahamas and is already moving in to the area.

Thus, for today we can say "goodbye" to afternoon thunderstorms pretty much anywhere along the east coast from Daytona Beach to Miami and east of I-95 as the drier air mentioned above is already evident on the latest KSC sounding data with the PWAT value having dropped to 'non-preciptable' values for this time of year...at least under the current synoptic set up. Drying is also evident on water vapor imagery which is no surprise. This alignment of the forces appears to remain somewhat permanent (or so it will seem) for at least the next 6 days so might as well slop on the sunscreen and squeeze out some lemons.

In summary, no thunderstorms today for the most part. Perhaps a storm or two near the Tampa area or along I-75...but those will be isolated. Even the more favored inland areas will be 'slow' today. Morning temperatures, as noted this morning over southeast Florida, will be around 80 degrees if not warmer every morning along the coast through the remainder of the week, but afternoon high temperatures in these same areas will remain below or right at 90 degrees east of US-1 due to the influence of the prevailing easterly winds off the near shore Atlantic waters.

We might want to start eyeing the region along the Dominican Republic into into the Yucatan Channel for tropical development. Yesterday, the ECMWF model was indicating there could be a hurricane by next Tuesday/Wednesday right over the infamous oil spill region, but that possibility has 'not so miraculously' totally disappeared off the map as of this morning. The joys of 'crystal ball' forecasting at its finest.

The challenge, as it is, of forecasting tropical systems is slowly rearing its pretentious face...so I'm preparing for the over-hyped barrage of "ifs, ands, or buts" to infiltrate every form of media outlet that disperses meteorological information known to mankind during the coming months. Let the rumors and bad information fly out the mouths of folks in the grocery store line...it's all coming. Suddenly it seems everyone is a hurricane expert, including those who probably never take a second look at the sky the remaining 9 months of the year! False rumor alert preparation time.

In any case, for the most part we will have quiet weather for the next 2-3 days almost guaranteed. Will be watching for nocturnal-late morning coastal showers moving on shore later this week..but for the most part even that possibility is looking weak. Expect all kinds of things could be changing by this time next week...which I suppose isn't saying much from a forecasting perspective. But I will be watching for an increase in storm activity, especially beginning Monday over the Central Peninsula...and by then we can take it from there.