Fairly Rapid Air Mass Modification Making For Tricky Forecast Into Central Today

TODAY: Boundary delineated clearly extending from the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf. At the time, high pressure over Central Appears to be quickly dropping south and/or shrinking or retreating to the west as the trough in the mid levels drops south toward North Central.  Cumulus clouds alone are late in getting started. Latest trends and guidance continue to show an early evening chance of showers/storms (in general) as noted above, but not really expecting anything (as of now) terribly strong.  
, modify, destabilize in time for storm formation before the sun gets too low in the sky. The region to the South is much drier, so the SE winds are advecting in very stable air toward the coast , especially toward South Brevard and South, where as air closer to central is where the changes occur for now.  Expect that by later today the interior area will not be affected   either way. although it does not look so much like a sea breeze collision kind of day except perhaps west of Orlando. There appears to be a separate boundary extending toward DAB (delineated by the clouds offshore), that might end up being the key factor for any thunder/showers today. To note: The NAM shows no activity in this area today..whereas the RUC  (RAP) model changes with every one to varying degrees. Not really expecting anything 'strong' so to speak, but lightning is lightning. Best chance of activity will or should be toward the North early on then migrate SSW-S for a time..toward the interior of Central by 6pm...with other showers possibly formign along the said boundary (if in deed there is one).


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: GFS has backed off considerably on storm coverage the next two days. Indications are lack for a sea breeze which would leave some thunder and rain showers Central to the North..but coverage does not look too impressive. Have to keep monitoring both days. It could just be that the transition now in play occurred as data was coming out, which skewed any subsequent out put.  


BOUNDARY of Sorts should be getting through Central by later on Thursday which then puts the state in NE-ENE as noted yesterday, with a chance of mainly coastal showers, possibly more like thunder in to the interior and SW Coast later in the week. This scenario could play out for a number of days, with the area mentioned previously to develop in thh SW Caribbean more messed up than ever in regard to when where of even If anytying will form down that way later next week..and even is so..what will become of it. See no indicaitons of tropical storm formation at this time. By guess though is that once this boundary pokes through the state toward the straits by the weekend we will finally have a better grasp on what will become of the Caribbean Moist Pack..

Storms Today West Interior Toward JAX /TLH and PNS

RECAP: Image above shows highlighted area in yesterday's post...in the purple zone.  As it was, much of the region thought to have strongest activity there and in orange (more isolated) came close to fruition as can be seen below. There was several severe thunderstorm warnings late afternoon and into the mid-evening, yet only a few reports came in, those to the north from 'wind damage' caused by fallen trees. Thus, we will never know if it was actually severe category winds that caused the trees to fall. Otherwise, there was tremendous amounts of lightning activity, but frequent to excessive lightning does not quantify a storm as being severe. One strike from one small thunder-'shower' is just as deadly as 5000. Often , in fact, it is the first strike or first few..or the last strikes that do the bodily damage and not the frequent ones in between. Thus, 'when it roars head indoors' (if it is not too late). Because the damage can be done before one hears the roars.
Below is a sample of lightning (the white cluster last night) as well as some of the warnings, only a few samples. That 4th area which was two warnings at once correlates with the most lightning.

TODAY: Totally different story. Ridge in the mid levels is lifting across much of North Central Today messing with steering currents. Most activity in the area of interest for the blog will be noted below down the North interior toward the west side of the state, mainly after 5-6pm when sea breezes  and boundaries meet . Temps aloft are still cold enough for stronger storms with tiny hail , strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning, although do not think it will be the show we had last night.

We can see here the Craven Brooks significant Severe Weather parameter was getting 'juiced up' well before any of the storms in Central had even begun late yesterday! But it was not long after ward the chaos erupted from a few single storms from Daytona And North to one big  lightning parade, much of which was abetted by a series of propagating storms all the south from SW Florida which worked northward.

Today's Areas of Interest in General with Captions.

TUESDAY: High pressure still in control while a low pressure trough aloft and a weak frontal boundary begin to approach the state. Believe similar conditions tomorrow will exist but with slightly better steering toward the East than today. All in all..we can probably shift the northern area of interest to the east another 50 miles in general..if not more so from Flagler County North and  perhaps the DAB area. The trough will be sinking south into the late afternoon and all night, some activity in which case could approach Brevard's more northern area from the NW-NNW after dark.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Two frontal boundaries really are in play on Wednesday with one near Central and the other much further north. Either way might not make a difference since sea breeze interactions will be the secondary if not primary focus, ample instability, and slightly stronger winds aloft. Expecting thunder as far south as portions of South Central and possibly lasting late night east central portions south of New Smyrna Beach as the first boundary works south.


By Thursday the southern boundary washes out with the second one sinking south to replace it. Wednesday 's activity should break the dam for South Florida, so  we could see near statewide activity Thursday afternoon, but the greater details at this time are beyond even bothering to contemplate.


FRIDAY: The secondary boundary will press to South Florida over night Friday night at the latest, with the bigger focus South of I -4 on Friday, possibly beginning early on in the day. After dark strong and stacked high pressure builds off the mid Atlantic coast behind this boundary and into the Western Atlantic, followed and accompanied by deep ENE-NE winds at the surface and aloft blowing across warmer ocean waters and accompanied by still cold air aloft. This could bring a big shift in the pattern through Sunday with timing being an issue. 


SATURDAY: Could see early showers and some thunder east side spreading to the W-SW coast by night fall. Then on Sunday/Monday time frame looks more like a secondary wind surge accompanied by deeper ENE-NE winds under cold air aloft and above warmer ocean waters  which could send in surges of convective bands of rain showers, mainly for the coast, but spreading inland during the day as thunder.


BEYOND: The issue with the tropics remains uncertain for earlier next week. One model run will show a n Atmospheric Tsunami working north accompanied by heavy rains, the next run will show most of the activity skirting to the east of the state. It seems most likely though that by early to mid next week the next change in the pattern will commence and that if nothing more, the wet season will officially have begun no matter what the chain of events it is that unfolds.

Preempt To Summer Like Pattern Today

“From there to here,
from here to there,
funny things are everywhere.”

TODAY: Image caption about sums it up. Today will be the first of 2012 most resembling a summer like pattern for what it's worth, but it will be short lived. Otherwise, quite humid now late morning with dewpoints running in the mid-upper 70Fs and Cape Canaveral AFS reporting a dew point of 80F with heat index of 97F! One fish two red fish blue fish...and flying fish at that rate .   Outside of the muggies today has the look and feel of a typical late afternoon and early evening thunderstorm set up, with that "mainly along to west of I 95" feel to it; that is except for a trough entering the western Panhandle which appears will ram in to the ridge of high pressure building  into South and Central Florida during the day. That is not summer like.


Typical strength afternoon east coast sea breeze should be able to get started by early afternoon, but not be all too strong. Some showers to go up along it., with thunder beginning toward 4 pm possibly near Northern Volusia or into Flagler County near I-95 if not even toward US1 for a time... then working along a line to the SSW into Orlando and near Sanford toward and west of Kissimmee, with other weak storms either side of that line propagating along the East Coast Sea breeze which by that time will be well inland. 


Could also see some activity along the NW Side of Lake Okeechobee along the Lake/West Coast Sea breeze.  Storm interactions north first should propagate south along the aforementioned  line defined by the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze with a collision occurring late between both coastal breeze toward western or Central Orange into Osceola and finally Polk Counties toward 6pm through 8pm.  


Believe strongest storms (that from wind near 45mph in gusts and maybe some brief pea hail) will be after 6:30pm into or near SW Orange, near or west of Kissimmee, and portions of eastern Polk. Other storms particularly active into Southern Lake County...


With steering from the West to east..could be some rains of light intensity spreading over much of East Central south of I-4 after 6 or 7pm, or simply a lot of high and mid level   'storm debris' cloudiness.  Otherwise, some stronger activity could occur in the West 1/2 of the panhandle, but suspect the primary concern there will be heavy rain totals west of Panama City.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Much less chance of any rain many areas except late in the day near I-4  Tampa to I-95 and north.  (mainly north 1/2 of state) with late day showers possibly working into North Brevard Tuesday evening.


WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: So much for a typical summer pattern. Although it might look and feel like summer, with a frontal boundary moving in on the state synoptically speaking it won't be. Much better chance of mid afternoon to late evening showers and thunder, especially Thursday and as far south as South Florida moving toward the East Coast, especially Thursday and Friday. Guidance remains a bit iffy still, but in general Thursday through Friday and maybe Saturday have been highlighted for said activity as a heads up at this point. The front could get as far as Central will it will hang out, much like our last event before being absorbed by a large Caribbean Sponge bath from the south.


BEYOND: Gets messy. Surge of moisture associated with large area of low pressure to work north from the SW Caribbean by Sunday or Monday time frame next week and could be in the pictures for a few days. Looks like another version of what we just had only more activity with a tropical feel to it. Bigger impacts, if so, appears will be rainfall with some thunder, but the primary concern given the warm air aloft associated with deep tropical air mass transport from the south. It gets messier in that it could get tied in with another frontal boundary

Scattered Showers and Thunder Mid-Aft Through Mid-Eve

Small showers and some thundershowers, possible heavier storms in yellow with stronger wind gusts especially north Florida late this afternoon into early evening

TODAY: Much different pattern today, with more sun at last. There is some negating factors that will preclude larger storms through 5pm though at least. Not to say there will not be a lot of spotty showers and some thunder, but a large complex that moved across the South Half of the state overnight left residual ' stabilizing aftermath' . Stable means not good for storms, so despite activity getting underway already as I type, the atmosphere really does need to recover into unstable mode more cleanly. 


A boundary seems to exist, sort of a pseudo-warm front  as was noted yesterday could happen, from near the Cape NW ward and over the Panhandle. Additionally low level shear is up and down the east coast with a weak sea breeze. The intersect is somewhere near Volusia or Brevard County along the boundary and where winds cross it from the WSW aloft, so that area especially east 1/2 of Volusia and north 1/2 of Brevard bears watching later today, as well as along I-95 further south, and across I-10.  Lifted parcel levels are too high earlier today, this mid-afternoon, for deep convection but the character of activity could take on a different flavor after 5:50pm or so, especially after 6:30pm in those yellow areas. Activity could continue well into mid-evening they fade of later tonight in isolated pockets. Some of the storms could be 'tricky' today along toward the Cape especially and near the east side of Lake Okeechobee from Vero to West Palm Beach.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: More isolated type activity except toward the interior north of Lake Okeechobee but closer to the coast near and north of I-4.In short, nothing has changed in this line of thinking since yesterday.


LATE TUESDAY: A weakly defined trough will be near the Central to western Panhandle with an upper level  dropping southward, quite broad at that. This will eventually set up more of a SW Flow aloft, pushing activity toward the east coast. This is first noted well north of 'the Big Lake' on Tuesday, but the rest of the state gets into the action Wednesday -Friday or Saturday. Although it is getting to be mid-June, it really does not look at all like a typical summer set up, as again the southern branch jet and lots of boundaries around of synoptic scale size will be in place as opposed to a pattern being dictated by placement of high pressure ridges typical of a summer regime.


BEYOND: Will be watching for 'something' to form in the far Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan to surge northward. The GFS is consistent with bringing anything from a large tropical storm like feature or simply 'organized moisture surges embedded in broad low pressure toward Florida", whereas the ECMWF yesterday as too the GFS brought a tropical like feature into the far eastern Gulf with tropical storm type winds across Florida. The ECMWF shifted gears this morning taking something well to the west, whereas the GFS takes less organization further east. Not even a surface low in fact. Thus, the area is worth watching when that time comes around. That time frame being the beginning of the week after the one coming up already alluded to in the previous paragraph., or around the 15-20th of June. 

Mostly Cloudy, Muggy, with Showers and Some Thunders

Captions say it all

TODAY: As of noon time the old frontal boundary that was near I-10 is sinking south per all model guidance prior to yesterday's post, and so it is to be as models show it now near I-4 but sinking into Dead Central or near there by mid-afternoon where it then undulates in that general area into Saturday. The surface boundary is expected to sink to the Central Dividing Zone from near the Port of Canaveral toward North Tampa Bay area by 6pm as it begins to 'wash out' or be absorbed a bit by high pressure building east and south to the north of the state later on Saturday. The boundary should remain across Dead Central or northern South Central into tomorrow before losing all identity, or what little will be left of it. The front is barely surface based as it is, and likely will only be more evident with time between 2000 -4000 ft above ground.  


Otherwise, all things aside, mostly cloudy but with a few good clouds breaks here and there, ex-specially toward the Lake. As it is, not hesitancy there.. showers and thunder have already begun, taking advantage of the opportunity to savor the sun's energy supply. During the remainder of the day, the most likely areas to get thunder will be just upstream of where the larger cloud breaks occur, primarily any of those in the 2:30-6pm time frame.  Best convergence along the boundary coupled with only slightly stronger wind aloft could result in a stronger storm toward Eastern South Central and SE Florida (earlier than the more northern area of interest). The area from Port St John/Canaveral to MLB 'could' be an area to watch, but further south toward Vero may also be more favorable. Also, the east side toward West Palm toward Dade County might see a good one or two.


To Note: At this hour, Central south of the front is about the LEAST favorable area for a storm as it is, but expect this potentially (or possibly) to be the most favored area later today, holding off to build up steam until later unless the current atmospheric conditions portrayed in the finer details do not change. Thus, South Central is a bit sketchy but will will ride with continuity of past model runs and ignore the short term model for the area near the front.  The inhibiting factor there could end up being a new influx of high clouds and stabilization from showers further to the west sending out debris clouds. Otherwise, today is just like all the others except toward South Florida that has not seen as much activity lately as has the region further north.


SATURDAY: Another version of the same old story. Could be that Central will get in on the rains early in the day, and that will be the end of the story there., at least for a portion of the day. Transitory day for sure as what remains of the boundary washes out near Central along Brevard County, but the western edge of the boundary begins to get wrapped northward up the west coast as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds becoming east to ESE in the afternoon, but weak steering could send a strong thunder 'eventually' back eastward South of Titusville to Miami later into the day or early evening. Otherwise, most storms tomorrow will occur west of I-95 with slow storm motions and still quite a few clouds elsewhere.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: More changes. The main issue to watch will be for continued high clouds, as implications from two of the models show continued high moisture aloft (which does not always mean clouds given the depth of moisture portrayed in guidance). Most storms it appears though will be west of I-95 at least if not more so...but there is still discrepancies regarding just how much further west, especially up toward Daytona to JAX. Could be only the west 1/2 of the state will get wet for a few days into mid-week.


By Thursday and Friday so far much of the state could see the more afternoon variety thunderstorms heading toward the east coast by mid afternoon by then, as a mid - upper level trough sinks south into the central Gulf resulting in re-newed   east bound storm steering currents aloft.

Periodic Showers and Some Storms Through Friday

Radar around 8:15AM EDT shows activity moving from WSW to ENE already as anticipated. Two Fronts are seen here, with the southern one more of a surface trough as a reflection of what is going on aloft in the mid levels

TODAY: Captions capture the essence of today, with neither boundary moving much more than perhaps 20-30 miles one way or the other north/south. As such, would expect most of the rain to be near and in between those boundaries.


Latest short term trends show that south Florida is being dry slotted in the mid-levels simultaneously under extensive high clouds (moisture) and lower clouds. This would normally be a situation for strong storms if not for the high clouds (with the moisture present there and at low levels), but with little focusing mechanisms other than perhaps an afternoon sea breeze, would need to watch the east side toward Southern Palm Beach County through the Largo Area.


Otherwise, fairly close model agreement that the bulk of rainfall today will occur between the orange arrows.  There could be some stronger storms in the areas in Yellow, but those were more or less picked out on a mass-random whim based on periodic wind field surges depicted by so called, "guidance".

Any of these could 'go', and if so, most but not necessarily so would do it between 2pm -6:30pm.  The NE corner of the state in particular and East Central.  All in all, we could see a few severe warnings today, particular in that time frame last noted, with the primary threat being strong wind and frequent CG (cloud to ground) lightning, but the chance of a waterspout is not totally out of the question.


FRIDAY: The northern Frontal Boundary has been forecast to sink south toward Central where the current boundary exists. OR..it might just wash out and the southern one will become the one and only dominant player. Either way, all of Central to Tampa north and south 60 to 70 miles either side should be in the rain chance swath zone beginning early morning through sunset. Showers could occur over night as well, but very isolated.

BEYOND: Not a whole lot of change in reasoning other than one issue. Without going into naming models as that is irrelevant for posting purposes, they are split on what happens to the front on how far south it will get. This can be imagined because of the already new boundary near Central which might have thrown two of them off. Based on consistency and trends of the GFS though combined with the time of year, the  'new' front or what is left of it will sink a bit further south toward Vero Beach by overnight Friday night into Saturday. Wind behind the boundary will be light easterly north of its location but shallow, and possibly not strong enough to offset steering of showers and storms back eastward. The boundary will be , as it looks now tilted from near Cedar Key SW toward Ft Pierce area..with rains either side once again.  Saturday in Sunday looks like a shift in the timing issues, sticking closer to afternoon and night activity, but we'll have to wait and see. In this example though, it would be a sliver from North Brevard NNW toward Tallahassee that would have the least chance of rain.


 GREAT BEYOND: The trend has been for moisture to 'hang around', enough for rain in the forecast  the whole way out to next weekend at the rate we are going now. That does not mean all days will be as we have been seeing recently though. It will likely take on a different character of 'symptomatic flavor' from the atmospheric shift . 


Monday/Tuesday time frame could see heavier early to mid afternoon through evening storms nearly statewide, with less high level cloud cover to start the day. This will much depend though on what happens on Saturday into Sunday with the supposed positioning of the front which will wash out during that time frame.  Strange state of affairs going on this year as we enter the wet season by mid-June, considering the current pattern is unusual right now for what is oft referred to a small circles as the 'convective season'.


Before we know it, it could be time for a moisture surge from the Caribbean of different nature before this pattern even clears itself out come around 12-15th of June. Which would harbor a more wet-season like regime of afternoon and evening stormage just in time, but who would know the difference?

Another Day of If-Casting

Morning satellite imagery shows a mesoscale convective system (deep convection, organized ) maintaining itself for now over the Southeast Gulf as shown by red area. Latest ECMWF/NAM/RAP models all show the energy associated with the cluster to begin to lift ENE-NE day, and break apart. Any impacts from the wind energy should be, or could be Potentially (key word) most realized north 1/2 of state from early afternoon through late night tonight

TODAY: Will cut this post brief as noted by the subject line, way too many IFs involved to definitize or even rationalize where, when, or  how convection (storms) will initiate today. The two key areas would be associated with the remnants of an MCS over the Gulf as shown, and near East Central where greatest mid level Bulk shear has been continuously forecast to exist toward from just NE of Lake Okeechobee toward the area in Orange. Model guidance is all over the place on precipitation fields, as they weigh in on a different balance of weights and measures to determine the results, sort of like model politicking. Most seem to agree on little action just about anywhere truly to speak of in terms of the precipitation fields (rain) today, highlighting cloudy skies as a result.


Two severe warned storms over South to portions of South Central Florida might have worked over the atmosphere already before or near sunrise, with nothing but high clouds to follow. So that reasoning seems sound enough for now.


Otherwise, much less cloud cover north 1/2 of state, with east central portions playing the middle man . If so, storms (as opposed to patches of rain/showers) should not begin until at least noon time or so. The winds toward East Central might generate off and on light to moderate rain, or big storms. It is nearly impossible to say which if any. The combination of best instability though would normally justify making the north 1/2 claim, and that is where this post will rest today. Not to say activity cannot exist to the south either, hence the different color coded scheme.


BEYOND: We 'could' have another over night to early morning event over Central in the long run based on vorticity fields tonight toward sunrise, but timing again has no preference under a cloud sky regime for the most part, since most storms which will be isolated at best in any case. referring primarily to wind fields aloft and energy rather than purely surface based, normal summer thunderstorm (like) mechanisms. Chances in such manner continue into Friday, especially focusing more toward Central as a front boundary as shown above sinks into the area, eventually south yet further.


Impressions I'm getting from the latest ECMWF and GFS are that the western boundary portion of that foretold front might begin to lag, so that the front by Saturday extends from near Sebastian and NW ward toward Pensacola for another day or toward into Sunday if not early Monday. Thus, the shenanigans continue. By Tuesday it appears any activity will be restricted to the West half of the state as low level easterlies result from high pressure at the surface to lower levels builds eastward and offshore the Deep South region, but it is fairly shallow in vertical height. Even though weak steering might be eastward, do not believe any storms to form in that regime will actually make it very far and across the late afternoon sea breeze which will be well past Orlando by the time Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon time rolls around.

Best Chance of Thunder Today North of Vero on East Coast and Across I-10 Corridor

The 'Proverb'ial  Blog See Text is captured above, but there is caveates in the forecast given reasons cited in today's writing

TODAY: Plus factors, instability is mounting so far early afternoon across much of the state. Mainly all of Central- sufficient for strong storms, with colder air aloft and surface based instability up through the mid-levels. Best surface, mixed layer, and normalized convective instability (CAPE) is from near or just north of Vero Beach and north toward Ormond by the Sea.  Best upper level divergence so far is near New Smyrna South toward Vero. Not quite the overlap, but dead east central meets the cross hairs and fits the ticket price. 


Problems:  high clouds., undirectional wind directions and zero sea breeze , resulting in lack of a focusing mechanism for surface based initiation of storm.


Interesting though, the RAP model on the best site for getting into the finer details is DOWN..but earlier runs favored South Florida before sunrise. However, it appears things might have flipped flopped with the north half favored instead due to the continuance of high clouds cutting off the heat engine over the south. Moisture is greater in the South, but it is due to High level moisture more so than at the levels for storm bodies. Latest guidance in use for this post shows the best low and mid level moisture is Dead Central Dividing Line and north/south about 55 miles either way at least..with energy in the wind fields inter-dispersed hither and yon depending on what hour one prefers to utilize through sunset. Oops.


All things given, it would be negligent not to mention the possibility of strong thunderstorms (but isolated) in the areas noted, or close to them, in orange and red. These could start after 1pm through dark, off and on, with no apparent rhyme or reason other than that those already cited, favorable conditions, already exist; and the lifted condensation levels are low enough per the NAMcast for those stronger chances after 3:30pm. Could be big changes in short-term guidance as 2-3pm rolls around, so will go out on the fragile forecast limb and at least lay some cards out, just in case.


Otherwise, fast moving showers are spotty but have some gizmo already. There we have it already as I just looked for the first time. Showers appearing in the most unstable area. BUT, will high clouds put the lid on activity going into mid afternoon Xing out Central for storm chances? Only the Secret Eight Ball knows, the secret meaning.

WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: Back to square one, Sunday's Post. Chances again for storms. Earlier NAM and to some degree the GFS showed the best chances of rain Wednesday could befall from mid morning through late day, mainly Central zones and into the South..some strong. With a high cloud deck at night, some of the heat of the day will be retained, thus allowing for earlier shower and storm starts.  Beyond Wednesday and the vast number of variables involved between now and then through Friday..will need to cover each day on a case by case basis. Suspect future posts will retain this flavor though, with some bitters in there leaving the ever present question, " Will it or won't it do whatever or not on my parade?"

Heat and Rain Chance Potential Lowers Through Tuesday at Least

Noon time infrared image shows high clouds in grey slowly filtering across the state. They should remain fairly thin but thicken through Wednesday, and be most noticeable within one hour after sunrise and  before sunset

TODAY/TUESDAY: Heat could be on, but not as much so as fore warned. High clouds as mentioned yesterday could eventually begin to move in, and such is the case even sooner. Guidance indicates they will remain much if not all of the remaining work week once the high cloud producing machine gets started, and what better place to have it happen than upstream of the state. As such, although it will still be hot today in the lower to possibly mid 90Fs toward the east side of the state, it will not be as hot today as could have been, nor will it be on Tuesday.


Otherwise, westerly winds could pick up toward 20-25mph on Tuesday afternoon under the spurious high cloud shield , giving the sky a milky color and holding down the temperatures just a bit well away from the mid-upper 90Fs. Moisture will become more available, but even so there is not enough energy available nor any low level convergence boundaries present to get storms started except close to I-10 into the JAX area.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Frontal boundary draped west to east across the Deep South will be sinking southward today and tomorrow..and continue to do so as high pressure expands to its north. There does not appear there will be much in low level convergence ahead of the front nor on it except in the mid levels which may add to further increases in cloud cover with some showers; but if, when, how, or where any storms will form is another matter entirely. Therefore, at the present time it is a bit hard to probe into more detail at this time concerning later in the week on those issues. The consensus points to better rain chances come Wednesday evening through Friday with the front sinking south with time, but most of it appears to be stratified with a few thunders toward the west coast. Time will tell.


By next weekend winds should be easterly for quite some time, or at least a few days..and another big pattern change will be necessary to put the wheels in motion locally to make a break from the Easterly Syndrome. That change might come in the form of another moisture surge from the Western Caribbean toward the Southern Gulf, initially to the west of the state into the Louisiana/Mississippi/Southern Alabama area and perhaps the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola. All in all, we COULD be seeing a fairly non-interesting pattern in play until mid- June.

Chances of Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday and Wednesdeay

In red is where strong storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday 

TODAY - MONDAY: NE winds coming in this afternoon to cool late  afternoon east coasters. We could see high streams of cirrus clouds all days next week from time to time, and they could be a player and reason for 'downsizing' future forecast posts to mostly cloudiness and light showers all areas except near I-10.  Future forecasts are showing dense cirrus off and on through next week beginning Wednesday or even Tuesday.  There is a small chance of showers along the east coast from Vero And South late in the day on Monday.


TUESDAY: Westerly winds, like Monday, prevail. Warm tomorrow (Monday) like today, but potentially warmer with highs approaching the mid-90Fs many areas especially the further east one gets. A frontal boundary will be draped across the lower SE states. The image above depicts the 'bulk shear' at 20,000 feet. On a summer day we have zero shear aloft under normal circumstances. Shear aids in lift and stronger storms. 


With that in mind, to compare, the GFS plots indicate not only shear will  reside aloft, but there will be a slight  bit all the way down to 2000 ft despite the predominantly WSW-W winds at the ground curving to WNW-NW aloft as can be seen above by the direct the wind barbs point. The temperatures aloft will be colder than on Friday when we had all of the rain as well. So, despite the chance of a lot of high clouds, wind shear and cold air aloft might be the predominant players/factor regardless. Small hair and strong to severe strength straight line winds in and near down pours appears would be the 'threat'.


The other school of thought though, per the NAM, is that the rain chances will remain near I-10, and areas to the south will see highs near 97F as has been relayed here for a few days now. The original train of thought several posts ago if we recall was mentioning  strong to severe storms in the Tuesday/ Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  It is too soon to say how far south the boundary will get, as the the ECMWF brings it much further south with 850mb vorticity streaming across North Central rather than further north. In that case, the strong storm threat would extend yet even further south by Wednesday. Much of the future posts will be weighted toward and through Friday, where a shift could occur, putting the storm and rain threat to an end. 

Queen of the Night Opens to a Near Full Moon. A one night stand.

But again, that is too far out in time to bother hypothesizing on other than that after up to 4 potential days of rainfall and storms, it has to eventually come to an end.  This additionally potential rain chance filled time frame should help put more of a dent in the winter dry period conditions. Brush fires were relatively very few and far between this fire season in the all in all.  

Chance of Showers and Some Rumbles South of I-4 Later Today Central/Earlier South

Frontal Boundary to Make Slow Southward progress Today

TODAY: Frontal boundary as shown will move very little today southward as much as it will  slide East to ESE-ward. Heating of the day in combination could help it to actually lose identity completely before the day is through. It is not so much a front going through as much as it is high pressure building eastward across the Gulf of Mexico that will essentially "consume" it. Thus, even with northwesterly winds  aloft tomorrow, those will be due solely to clockwise circulation around the top of the high descending southward ahead of it, along with drier continental air, with surface winds more westerly, with a possible late day sea breeze quickly becoming westerly again after sunset.


In regard to today, given there is 'some' moisture around mainly in the lower levels though, it will take some form of low level convergence to 'squeeze upward that moisture to cloud and rain bearing heights'. There is the boundary proper, but also it appears a very shallow sea-breeze will form by early afternoon along the "Barriers", but more so toward the intracoastals after 4pm with side shore parallel mainly winds since winds just above the deck around 2000 ft will remain strong enough to keep a deeper sea breeze from making inland progress. It should be safe to say the west coast sea breeze willthus work its way a bit inland from their coast.  


The issue today is 1) depth of dry air aloft 2) Cirrus clouds in bands coming on the approach which could put the most minute damper on low level instability, we'll need ever ounce we can get to generate the lifing mechanisms. 3) overall lack of moisture except where there is convergence of moisture through the lower 5000 ft north of Lake Okeechobee.  Thus, the better chances of a thunderstorm appears to be late today and after 5:30pm IF there is not a lot of skimpy showers around before that time which would hog up what instability there is.


Possibilities: It does look like anything that can go up, even a rain shower, could send out flow boundaries radially in all directions, with possible showers near the front, and earlier activity over South and SE Florida into portions of South Central as well up to Ft. Pierce along the Lake breeze shadow...there could be outflow boundary mergers east central later today. The other issue is that even if so, would those boundaries undercut with their associated cooler air any potential updrafts to which they are drawn into? If so, those updrafts would be pulling in cooler air and get stifled and die. Chances are, any remnant boundary will be the harbinger of things to come later on..but first things first..to get something going.


Best chance for thunder as shown, but more so along the east coast from the Cape to Ft Pierce to West Palm to MIA International. to Key Biscayne. South could go earlier with better moisture as well as something at the front itself, with far East Central latest after 5Pm, Titusville/Port St John, North Merritt Island, Frontenac/North Cocoa to Rockledge and inland toward eastern Osceola County to Eastern MCO to Sanford. Further south, around the Lake Shadow/Vero.Ft Pierce/ West Palm...and further south east of the Ever Glades. All locations north of West Palm though are pretty much the squeezing water out of a rock type situation. Any sudden influx of drier air and all is gone as in written in the wind and out the window gone.


BEYOND: Warmer and warmer each day, mainly Monday/Tuesday and possible Wednesday with WSW-W winds and zero sea breeze one or two days possibly. Warmest on that day (s) near the east coast and barrier islands..with highs in the mid 90Fs to 97F possible..Rain chances look to remain near I- 10 in coming days toward I-4 east coast as a frontal boundary sinks south but when and how far south it will eventually go and get has flunk-tuated between getting far enough south to increase rain chances elsewhere between Wednesday and Thursday..if not later Tuesday. By tomorrow this time we'll have a much better grasp on that monkey.

Cloudy and Drippy, With Some Thunder in Select Areas

Latest Visible satellite image  shows densest cloud cover Central moving along the Magic Dividing Line from Tampa to the Magic Kingdom to Cape Canaveral along the Beach Line. SE Florida is in a lull, but for how long?

TODAY: As expected , our big influx of moisture has "mainly" resulted in cloudy skies for most areas with not much in the rain gauges except in a few locations far south Florida early on and at the west coast. Model guidance has been every which way and loose with where the rain will fall and lightning and thunder will crash on each run, varying between them. The greatest consistency has been somewhere across Central Though, it has just been a matter of north central vs. South Central. Perhaps it is dead Central as is now occurring. Suspect though that if there is to be any heavier activity toward the east side of the state today, it will not be until after 2:30pm, and more likely after 4-5pm.  ..rain chances continue until shortly after sunset or 8pm.


Further South, another quandary. Note that rain has ended in this region for the time being. Latest infrared (Enhanced) and enhanced water vapor imagery indeed shows thunderstorm tops with deep convection toward the lower left of this image above, but the activity is making no northward progress in the past 3 hours, and seems to be drifting eastward rather than lifting north, unable to be  picked up by the approaching upper level trough. If this activity is picked up later on it could impact areas from SW Florida toward Lake Okeechobee to Palm Beach and north toward The Cape on the east side... or..further south..OR..it does not get picked up at all.  What comes to mind is several model runs yesterday showed SE Florida never seeing any more rain or little of it from this time forward today. So far, that is what has begun to happen.   I've also noted that the HRRR model is running way fast by several hours, for by now thunderstorms should be marching in on the area. but cloud tops and hence deep convection is warming/waning as it approaches shore.  Either way, the last of the rain should be moving off shore east central around midnight and far South Florida as late as 2AM or so.


SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Saturday could dawn nearly partly cloudy, and remain so most of the day with no rain other than perhaps far south Florida near the Keys into Dade and peninsular Collier Counties. An  errant shower or two with perhaps some thunder moving offshore possible North Central east side between Cocoa Beach to Ormond Beach very late toward sunset. Otherwise, temperatures running the 'around 90F' gamut.


MONDAY-TUESDAY: Generally dry for extended purposes and possibly HOT east coast with highs at the beaches on Monday and/or Tuesday possibly reaching the upper 90Fs. Guidance not showing values nearly that high as far as I know, but if winds do persist from the  NW-WNW as shown with no rain..this trajectory comes off of all land mass. There is a chance of thunder I believe though from The Cape and north along the east coast, but in concern for Wednesday -Friday that chance is close to negligible if at all , as it is still a bit uncertain timing wise.  


Meanwhile, the forecast seems to imply quite the Omega Block setting up in the middle of the country with a ridge right up the center of the country and troughs on both coasts  leaving Florida with NW steering flow and westerly winds at least through early-mid afternoon and hot temps. Typically, it is my experience that the hottest time of year if there is going to be one for the East Coast is the last week of May through the first 2 weeks of June during the transition into the Wet Season. A NW flow aloft is not a 'wet season' regime, so until the Omega Block now being advertised breaks down, we will not be in the wet season yet (not to say it still cannot rain and thunder, for in NW flow storms can lack but be all the stronger). Believe that once the Omega Block breaks down, with a few days to a week of adjustments, that puts us into the Wet Season..and that could be a big change when it does occur. Watching the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to western Caribbean.

Omega Happy Block with lows near each coast to persist
 through he first week of June

Thundersday Storms Possible North/Central

Thunder in Orange Most Likely possible areas today with isolated strong to severe 'warned' activity. Expect most of the strongest activity to be North Florida with a secondary area between Palm Bay north to DAB after 4:30pm through 8pm time frame, as well as interior Osceola County and parts of Orange. 

TODAY: Large upper level trough  across the Country's Mid-Section toward the Great Lakes region tonight into Tomorrow will draw deep tropical moisture northward in advance, and in fact as can be seen above the atmosphere is already beginning to respond in the SE Gulf by the high clouds lifting northward.


For today, east coast sea breeze has already begun along A1A to US 1 from MLB and north and would expect it to reach as far as near 95 at least. The caveat for areas across Central is the higher clouds seen above encroaching on the southern most area of interesting south of the Beach Line.  Should they make a continued rapid approach, the storm chances dwindle to very low.. But, outside of that caveat, the region from the Volusia/Brevard County line   -Kissimmee south along the FL Turnpike to Central Osceola County and east to Sebastian bears watching for several rounds of storms and/or showers from mid afternoon through mid-late evening.  The advancing west coast sea breeze is clearly visible in the image above, and expect it will get active especially as the east coast sea breeze approaches on its very eastward advance.  Given the sea breeze is in place, and models were mostly not showing this to occur or if so..quite side shore..some storms could be severe near I-95 to US-1 despite what models are showing (not) and the coast depending on how late they form and how far north the cirrus clouds have worked up the peninsula.


Temperatures aloft seem to be warming which would make sense given the tropical like nature and origin of that moisture, so weather the storms will reach severe category is questionable too, especially south of I-4. Main threat seems to be sub - severe winds.  The main state of affairs appears will be slow moving localized heavy rain storms with some lightning, but out flow boundary mergers with the sea breezes could get things 'rocking well'.


Freitag: Rain could begin pre-sunrise or re-form prior to dawn somewhere over the South Half of the state. For the most part, Friday does not look a thunderstorm day predominantly as much as a cloudy and rain day, except toward the Sarasota to   Tampa area, or somewhere along the west coast. A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises sums up Friday for 'Somewhere across Central Florida trying to reach the east coast', but not thinking at this point that any real thunder activity will quite get there except toward DAB...and perhaps far South Florida. The issue here being lack of stability due to predominant cloud cover.


BEYOND: Saturday through Tuesday looks much nicer with very low rain chances and very warm to hot afternoons under a long fetched land based NW flow..it is in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame through at least Friday or Saturday that good storm chances enter the picture again working from NW to SE ..further into South Florida as well by Thursday. Storms could be strong to severe on those days as things look now with colder air aloft as moisture from Remains of the Plains Moisture comes in from the WNW-NW.

Sketchtimated Chance of "Isolated Thunder " Later Today

Rough sketchtimate of 'potential' thunder chances today and quick rain dashes in green, perhaps thunder MIA metro area.

TODAY: Remains and wet ashes of Beryl will be heading toward the proverbial  burial at sea in the Western Atlantic tonight off the coast of North Carolina and eject rapidly ENE to NE ward into the Northern Atlantic and eventually becoming absorbed into a large trough with the net result being potential wet impacts to Northern Europe in about 6 days.


Meanwhile, back at the farm.  Another day of queries prevails. It appears a long lasting remnant boundary reflection dragging along the high-jaded heels of Beryl is draped across North Central where some showers and some lightning strikes occurred earlier toward West Florida north of TPA, but with daytime heating and drier air resulting the showers have been weakening the moment they get started. Much drier air resides over all of South Florida, although latest RUC guidance indicates some additional moisture 'could be waiting in the wings' to move in later today from the WNW..  The next questionable factor comes regarding a 'trigger' to set activity off in the first place. With low moisture aloft and little in Lake/Sea Breeze interactions due to the fairly healthy WSW surface gradient these simply cannot interact.  


Guidance does indicate a potential sea breeze probably getting no more than 1 mile inland from JAX to West Palm though by mid-late afternoon. As of 1:30pm the west wind seems to have lowered at the beach in my location.  This will be a major factor in determining if indeed ANY storms can form today worth noting. Skies are a bit hazy today for much of the state. This was noted to be in residence over the Gulf a few days ago, and hence, "Behold the haze whence forth it cometh! " Not sure what the origins are from, either Mexico or the Desert SW region.


The next difficulty comes with regards to the RUC ?NAM/ and GFS models are showing (who'd we leave out?) Current indications are that East Central from the Cape south toward Vero Beach will be the key area to watch today for thunder, with showers possible as far south as Miami where thunder could occur although not noted in the image and near West Palm on the South Side of the Lake Shadow...then too the Ft. Pierce to Vero area could see a storm from that factor alone.


RUC meso-analysis shows factors complimentary to even severe storms in the far Eastern Gulf once they swing eastward by mid-late afternoon across Florida, but whether those parameters are even Real is the big question because much of the late day forecast hinges on some semblance of them  reaching and across the state later today.  One last 'Big If', is that two models do indeed show a late day sea breeze after 5pm, but it appears that it could be due to outflow from 'mere' showers having already moved offshore. Thus the quandary.  


Lastly, other factors would dictate that any stronger if possible activity will not occur until quickly after 5pm through sunset somewhere from Ft Pierce north to Titusville with a potential isolated storm near Ormond/St Augustine area. But if showers occur any earlier, the atmosphere will have been stabilized negative that potential.


THURSDAY: Better chance of stronger storms, but suspect that some of the same dilemmas will be in place. One added bonus will be increasing upper level winds aiding lift though, and a better chance of a sea breeze since by that time any boundaries from Post-Beryl-mortem  will be out of the picture almost entirely. Additionally, a disturbance which will be triggering severe weather in Oklahoma Today could be over the area by later tomorrow ('could' , that is).  


FRIDAY: With a developing negatively tilted upper level trough kicking through the deep south and lifting NNE ward, wide spread severe weather for parts of the Mid Atlantic Region, the Deep South and Eastern Appalachians as far north as Pennsylvania to include all of the TVA Employees of Yore. Over Florida, the approach of that trough in such fashion will draw deep Tropical Moisture northward and across at least the Southern 1/3 to 1/2 of the state. Moisture ain't everything though, since it appears most of it will be mid-upper level moisture, thus, rain showers seem to be the game at play or perhaps merely cloudy conditions all day Friday for the South Half of the state. Depending on the depth of moisture though, a gradient/boundary could set up from the sunnier portions of the state to the north, making for an area somewhere across Central more favorable for storms 50 miles either side of the CFDL (Central Florida Dividing Line for purposes of posts running from Canaveral along 528 to Orlando and then along I-4 to Tampa.


BEYOND?: Could be 3 days of much more isolated if any activity and very warm afternoons with late day sea breeze near the coast.  

Stronger Storms 'Possible' East Coast Once Again

Visible Satellite Image at 10AM shows Beryl Barreling NEward  over SE Georgia. Otherwise,
vorticity lobe and mid-level boundary producing heavy or moderate rain in some locations north of I-$ with thunder coming in near the lower Big Bend this morning.
 

“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”


TODAY: Similar to yesterday, but much of the weather for Brevard and north depends on how long high level clouds seen in this image persist. They could fade away within the next 2 hours or so; therefore, most areas have a chance of seeing a storm today within the orange zones. In purple is where it seems possible an isolated stronger storm due to winds and non-severe sized hail could occur, although just possibly severe category winds could occur in the red zone to purple east of I-95, and maybe in NE Florida where wind fields are more favorable for rotation, although instability there is greatly lacking this morning . For information, there was one official severe wind report in a gust on a tower at Playalinda Beach yesterday (the storm looked great on radar), and a weak EF0 tornado in St. Lucie county damaging two homes according to the report I had seen. This would have likely been a result of the lake breeze/shadow meeting the east coast sea breeze.


Just to throw this out there, it is possible that a boundary could set up just south of the heaviest cirrus cloud coverage across North Central (somewhere), which would again like yesterday result in training of thunder and rain-showers, anywhere from Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/Melbourne to Northern Volusia County in the DAB area. Reasoning being that rain cooled air vs. day time heated air mass would create the thermal and instability gradient along with elongated vorticity draping south and westward from Beryl which is showing up in SOME of the guidance across Central Florida. As Beryl lifts north so too will things change throughout the day in regard to the impacts/effects Beryl has mainly on Central and North Florida. 


Thus, a shifting OUT rather than an arriving weather makes the forecast today especially tricky.  Latest Water Vapor and forecast model guidance shows pronounced drying in the mid levels from North Central Brevard county and across the state toward Sarasota southward to Dade County. Thus, the region over  Far South Central and much of Southern Florida is another trick to deal with. Should isolated storms along the sea breeze ANYWHERE along the zone really from Brevard to Martin County manage to manifest, especially on the northern or southern periphery of the Lake Shadow a severe storm producing strong winds and possible waterspout/tornado , small hail could occur (weak).  


Activity is expected to begin soonest (other than what is now occurring) over South Florida where instability is mounting quickly under sunny skies as sea breezes  commence, all under a bit of the jet stream.  Otherwise, winds along the immediate coast should become side shore and strengthen after 2pm as peak heating of the day approaches up and down the interior sections of the south half of the state . Thus, any activity could become a threat factor for marine interests and residents along the east coast after 2pm - 5pm in particular, with activity lingering toward the east coast until about an hour or so after dark.


BEYOND: Wednesday a sea breeze is not expected, but other factors in place could again result in showers/thunders, but not as wide spread. It is possible another nocturnal boundary will set up overnight (tonight) with rain and thunder across South Central or Central, but that is pure conjecture at this point.


Storms and showers will be in the forecast through Friday but it appears by that day we will be watching mainly South Central and South Florida the closer to the weekend we get. Sometime around Sunday more to watch south and South Central, although moisture content is showing more than ample, it might end up being mainly high clouds and not rain, with isolated activity further north. Time will tell.

Possibility of Strong Storms Today East Central as Beryl Meanders

See graphic text. Otherwise, Beryl is losing storm status today with most Tropical Storm related reports coming from Duval County in the JAX area last night. The storm is drifting toward the W-WNW since early day, and guidance shows similar motion toward sunset. See the Hurricane Center website for details. 

Sampling of observations on Beryl around 3AM:

MAYPORT NAS    LGT RAIN  73  68  84 SE32G48   29.54R  
JACKSONVILLE   CLOUDY    73  72  96 E23G35    29.51R FOG  
JAX NAS        CLOUDY    75  72  90 SE9       29.46R  
JAX CRAIG      CLOUDY    73  71  93 SE21G31   29.50R  
JAX CECIL      RAIN      72  72 100 NW14G24   29.45F VSB 1

29.45 Inches of Mercury into Millibars 

Result: 997.28, although not the lowest pressure for the storm

  I have no idea how high up these mesonet towers are: 

1110 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 W MAYPORT             30.38N 81.48W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   MESONET  
  
            SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED FROM THE NNE AT 47 MPH WITH  
            GUSTS TO 62 MPH.

1037 PM     TROPICAL STORM   6 NNW MANDARIN          30.23N 81.68W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   ASOS  
  
            A 65 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL  
            AIR STATION.

  
0920 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NW FORT CAROLINE      30.43N 81.53W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA  
  
            LOCAL TV STATION REPORTS ROOF OFF A HOUSE ON HECKSHER  
            DRIVE.

  
1035 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 N MAYPORT             30.40N 81.41W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   MESONET  
  
            SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WERE  
            RECORDED AT HUGUENOT PARK

OTHERWISE: As noted in the title, strong to potentially briefly severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly from Volusia County and South as noted in the graphic. 

Winds along the coast are expected to become more southerly to side shore or nearly so, which will aid in low level helicity east of I-95. Additionally, there is a chance of some better low level wind shear  (albeit very weak) north of MLB toward DAB along the southern fringes of Beryl's mean circulation pattern as well as a CAPE (convective instability) gradient setting up near the Brevard/Volusia Line or a bit further north right at those cross-hairs. 


Thus, where ever that gradient sets up could be where at least one option for a strong/severe storm, perhaps two with one even further north than DAB. The other favored area would be along the Lake Shadow Gradient which should set up near South Brevard to Vero Beach zone. A stronger storm with hail could set up in Western or Central Dade/Broward Area as well.

There is a chance of a brief landspout tornado or waterspout mainly east of I-95 or a waterspout offshore Brevard or Southern Volusia, and a funnel cloud could also be observed from northeastern Osceola County to the coast as far south as Palm Bay. Hail is also possible , potentially near severe category size of 1 inch..but if so, very very isolated as today's unfolding will be in any case.

Activity expected to commence after the morning convective temperature of 83F is broken, thus, could be as soon as 1:30pm - 2:30pm and to continue in various locations and various times noted in the image above through sunset with one or two storms near or approaching the coast after 6pm, most likely south of MLB toward Sebastian and Vero Beach.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: With 'Beryl remains' lifting toward the ENE out and away cloud cover will be appeased, and more statewide chances of storms both days, with strongest activity east 1/2 of state (in general). Locations and degree of strength of storms each day will be as always in question. The 

storm could begin to interact with the Atlantic on Wednesday and begin to 

emerge offshore the coast of North Carolina, but by that time would be 

becoming Extra-Tropical.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Chances are a weak disturbance will eject northward from Western of Central Cuba as is being noted which will impact coastal areas of far south Florida, but details, if even so, remain too sketchy to elaborate upon this morning given the time between now and then, anything could 

change. Out of interests sake, this day could be a big severe weather makes for much of Northern Alabama and Georgia northward to the eastern Great 

Lakes region and eastward to Southern Pennsylvania...(Friday time frame) 

EVENTUALLY: A frontal boundary and lowering atmospheric moisture by 

Sunday or Monday state wide (possibly) with a more westerly flow, the ridge axis at the mid levels being near the Florida straits, could set up for that hot spell mentioned a few posts ago early next week.