Pattern Shift Has Begun - Showers and Thunder More Widespread Today Statewide

Sunrise on Monday, Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Long-awaited (for some) pattern shift has arrived. What is meant by 'pattern shift'? We have been under the influence, intoxicated by easterly flow (onshore east coast winds) for quite some time.  Today herald's a shift in gears to SW flow at the surface and aloft as a frontal boundary draped up and down the entire U.S. East Coast presses eastward across the far Northeast states southward well into the Gulf of Mexico. This could mean a warmer afternoon toward the east coast south of I-4, in particular, and far South Florida with delayed onset of rainfall chances. Rain and thunder is already occurring under the cloud cover shown in the satellite image (below).

Quite a bit of lightning is occurring over North Florida early this Tuesday morning. This area is under the best 'upper level wind dynamics' which weaken the further south one proceeds, especially south of Dead Central Florida toward the Big Lake of Okeechobee. Outflows from activity further north look plausible to move in over the region north of I-4, so that area might be a bit stabilized by "that 'air' " before full heating of the day (which is now earlier due to earlier sunset and later sunrise) can be 'realized', or come to fruition/occurrence. Therefore, watching further south.

TODAY: Some storms could be strong, but brief due to fast motion, toward the East Coast south of I-4. The only reasoning being is that outflow from earlier activity and increasing cloud cover further north might cut off destabilization (as noted in the above caption); whereas, further southward, better heating accompanied by a bit of divergence aloft (not really significant) under SW flow aloft which is quite moist could pile up some heavy rainfall in short periods accompanied by lightning strikes 'afrequent' (under the assumption thunder storms can develop there alongn the 'red zone' shown).  

The off setting 'proverbial fly in the ointment' is that the east coast sea breeze today does not look likely to develop except maybe briefly before the frontal boundary gets further Southeast ward (and slows down significantly tonight presumably) south of Fort Pierce.  Meaning,  1) no chance of low level convergence; and 2) this will not be a summer time/like rain chance regime today where sea breezes or Lake Breezes are the biggest player (except far south).

Latest KSC sounding is showing 23 kts of wind around 2000 ft which will at least try to mix to the surface, so would expect no sea breeze today, possibly unusually breezy along waters and lakes for this time of year from a SW direction. 

The 700mb temperatures are not cold at all, although 500mb temperatures are cool enough that water over-loading aloft could translate in cooler temperatures in to the mid-levels regardless, for gusty winds in and near heavier showers and/or thunderstorms. 

Either way, guidance is split on activity today with the NAM going extremely low key as it has been for three days now in regard to storms and even showers, with the GFS showing a good chance to likely  along the east coast from Melbourne or so, southward..toward Fort Lauderdale. The best chance of an east coast sea breeze is well south of the Lake, so it may be that area will end up with a big storm.

Overall though, the air mass over much of the peninsula south of I-4 is fairly uniform early today, so the driving factors for this afternoon into early - mid evening might be from outflows resulting for earlier activity further north working southward into areas where heating has built up. 

The down fall of this is that outflows without a conflicting sea breeze can act purely to stabilize the atmosphere. Unless a vorticity max comes through, today could be a big bust, but not willing to hedge bets on that one this early in the day. In short, today's post is a 'play it safe just in case post", and speak of the worst case scenario, which is good rainfall and thunder coverage working south after 1pm through early evening. And this stabilizing factor seems more likely near and north of I-4 and less likely along the east coast south of Ponce Inlet.

BEYOND: The frontal boundary is expected to wash out in the next 2-3 days across all of Central Florida in a wide swath, with the upper level trough never clearing the area (nor the true front)...rather, it gradually gets replaced after frontalysis by high pressure from the north without any drying of the atmosphere, followed by a light onshore flow re-asserting itself by later on Thursday or Friday. Either way, showers will remain with temperatures running about where they have been lately, either coming in off the Atlantic or inland showers and thunder.

The earliest autumn since 1896 arrives this Saturday, September 22, at 10:49 A.M. (EDT). At this time, the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator from north to south.

 Coupling Up For  the Cape Canaveral Sunrise

   

Isolated Thunderstorms Mainly From 4pm to Dark

Cape Canaveral Late Thursday, September 6, Thunderstorm

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday sums it up, with only a few conditions that point to less favorable for widespread thunder. Morning sounding, as expected, revealed warmer 500 mb temperatures now that the upper low has opened to a trough and is well east of the state. Additionally, steering is a meager 5-8 mph from the NW to WNW and the air becomes sharply drier about 10,000 ft.  up in the atmosphere.Thus, with only weak sea breezes along the east coast with the west coast sea breeze more than likely making greater headway, appears inland activity is possible along the larger Lakes especially Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Pierce and on the South Side of the Lake and the South Side of Orlando eastward toward Seminole County and SW Volusia toward North Brevard potentially.

Outflows from even showers will likely be the next boosting mechanism since air aloft is still cool in the mid-levels which would give convergence along lake and those boundaries something for the atmosphere to play with. 

The issue today will be how much forcing there is upward to propel the column through the mid-drier level to big and great heights (strong thunderstorms). Making no mistake about, any said storm should it develop, will be able to produce frequent lightning, but as of the past two days I have not seen little  beyond the ordinary except toward Lake Okeechobee, and today the playing factors on those days are absent. 

But if so, it would be from Orlando/Sanford/Port St. John to west of Rockledge area and maybe southward toward US 1 to Melbourne. Did not really draw in specifics today as there is too much contingent upon 'additive'  mystery factors coming together to make a true hypothesis; point being rather to establish a framework dialogue describing what we are working with today rather than trying to strain a gnat. 

The other missing factor is upper level vorticity which was present along the east coast the past two days. It could still become a bit cloudy and 'drippy' anywhere along the east coast by late afternoon into the early evening though toward the east coast and inland areas where storms lay to bury and die out.

BEYOND: Above note the RED "L" in the image . This surface low formed in part from remaining energy associated with Isaac's Rotator cup. It is not expected to do a whole lot considering a frontal boundary will be giving it   Das Boot within about 48 hours toward the East to EastNorthEast as it it  can no longer dig its heals, being absorbed in a trough to move through the middle of the country (which will make for some cool mornings indeed - into the 40Fs in some locations in the wee hours). Speaking of which, I noticed Okeechobee City this morning was at 64F degrees before sunrise, and Vero hit a record low of 69F I believe it was yesterday morning. They were right around there before sunrise today as well.

IN any case, the frontal boundary will be sinking in to Central Florida around Monday now, and just exactly how far south the boundary will get is a bit more aloof, but the ECMWF and the previous GFS had it getting to the Florida straits. It might just take a little while longer to get there (if at all). Might even hang up toward Lake Okeechobee. 

But for the weekend, Saturday is not looking like such a big deal as far as rain goes as it appeared it would be, at least not for thunder. Very warm near the east coast though with delayed if any sea breeze north of Brevard. With all the sun and few clouds at the beaches and with Leslie loafing offshore, rip current threat is now reading "HIGH" from the National Weather Service so be advised of 'under toe out' and 'over head burnin'.'

FEW CHANCES FOR SCENES LIKE THIS NEAR THE BEACHES AFTER TODAY
IT APPEARS "SUMMER" STORMS WILL BE SOON DOWN FOR THE COUNT FOR 2012

Better rain chance on Sunday, but really does not appear all too impressive with no chance of a sea breeze and not real good forcing. mainly, rain chance on Sunday is well north of Lake Okeechobee...continuing into Monday Central and South Central.

Stronger Activity Possible Today Central Florida

September 4th, 2012 Storm Scapades - "Horizing Arising"
Arcus Cloud, Gust Front Formation 

TODAY: There is little change from yesterday's pressure pattern for the most part. An upper low off the east coast will lift north to north-northeast today and be located approximately 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral by mid-afternoon. Localize stronger winds aloft flow down its west side from the northeast across north rather than central Florida today, so as a result the best upper level divergence which was over South Florida yesterday will now be over Central Florida. Net result is that there is a minutiae of chance that stronger activity could be seen over Central as opposed to only South Florida as was the case yesterday (for the most part). Area to watch again near Ft Pierce toward the North side of Lake Okeechobee as well as far north possibly as Canaveral. Cold air aloft really never gets much further north than the Melbourne area though.  The net result of the better divergence could mean an early start to some showers as the east coast sea breeze begins between the beaches and Cocoa. If this earlier activity does take shape the chance of stronger activity later on might be nil due to stabilization of the atmosphere.  

Latest KSC morning sounding shows steering to be stronger than any model guidance indicates, with temperatures aloft cooler than yesterday as well. Thus, strong storms are possible today should nothing change later today from those conditions reflected in the sounding. Steering from the west about 10-14mph toward the east. Small hail also possible with gusts in the 35-48mph range in/near strongest storms.

Refer to  Numbered Captions in the Above Image

FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Weak low pressure area being watched for tropical development . Appears that feature no matter where it ends up or how strong in manages to gather wits (right now, not looking too likely) will have little time to strengthen before a frontal boundary and mid-level trough absorb it going into Sunday. Most guidance so far bring the strung out energy across mostly the North Half of the State, focusing it on Central Florida on Monday. Before that time though, the upper low to the east of the state will finally be released off to the northeast behind LESLIE...which will then allow the front and the old energy pocket from Isaac to swing through as the first cold front of the pre-fall Season. By Monday's night into early Tuesday. This will also mean that the cooler air aloft will move out, so the threat of strong storms could be over after today. 

This boundary is expect to clear south to at least Cuba or the Florida Straits followed by moist and brisk ENE winds for a few days, with cloudy periods and possibly some sprinkles. Temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs depending on cloud coverage. The boundary by or toward the following weekend could lift back north, or 'buckle back' ahead of another tropical disturbance from the South Central Atlantic which does not yet exist, per se. This would bring another shot of rainy weather toward the 15th or so of September with easterlies continuing . Thus, after this front clears out, the Wet Thunderstorm Season Door is Slammed shut for 2012 (not to say, thunder still cannot happen, nor that it still cannot be 'wet'). Referring only to the blanket "Typical Florida Thunderstorm" season as one might imagine it to be.

Isolated Storms, A few Strong Possible Later Today

 

TODAY: Having problems signing into my blog posting site today, thus,

this is a bit of a 'test post' attempt from email.

 

Tough call today, Wednesday, but all in all appears an upper

low off the SE Florida Coast is making for colder air aloft today

over the South 1/3 of the state and toward the east coast as far north

as near Melbourne. Steering is equally a tough call as it is divided in the

mid levels from WSW to the North. All in all, expect only slow storm motions today with propagation

along boundaries. Best chance of strong storms appears to be west of the Big Cities over South Florida

and just north of the LAKE on the north side of the Lake Shadow...this spells out the Ft. Pierce

to Vero Zone..with later activity as a result of outflows as far north as the Beach Line toward Rockledge/Port St John

areas of populace, whereas further west toward Orlando this is mainly swamp land and as far west as

Orlando might be west of the sea breeze convergence. Following images from Tuesday.

OTHERWISE: Remnants of the Seeds of Isaac (upper and mid level energy) is hovering

and will move little through tomorrow along the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps be forced

a bit to the WSW off Southern Alabama as a result of the passage of Lisa to our east.

LARGE SWELLS in the offing, and dangerous high risk threat of rip currents

beginning today but more so ALL WEEKEND. Thunder chances

continue through the weekend as well.

I see the Hurricane Center is giving "Isaac" a 10% chance of something happening with it, but

so far this looks less likely over likely. Cannot say for sure, and bears watching, but all in all

what will come out of it for better or for worse is better rain chances for at least the north half of the state heading into Monday.

 

 

"Remnants of Isaac" to Revisit Florida By Friday/Saturday

"It is Best Not to Assume Too Much Responsibility in Areas We have no Control Over". Call it as one see's it...with a disclaimer.    

TODAY: Not much difference across Central from the past several days since the departure of Issac. It is possible though that as moisture increases slightly from South Florida and closes in from the North that we could see some thunder toward the Lake/Sea Breeze collision zone near Ft. Pierce and the surrounding area toward Lake Okeechobee north toward Vero, as well as north of I-4. Elsewhere, isolated too isolated to highlight. Otherwise, light winds. Overall, more activity across the state.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The mid level 'energy' (vorticity) from "Isaac's Ashes" very loosely speaking has already become well entwined with a synoptic scale trough and related surface front which is driving into the Southeast states after impacting the area from Arkansas, Missouri and other portions of the Mississippi River and Ohio River Valley basins, providing drought relief and some tornadoes. This energy is now being driven toward the southeast, so one could say at least in portion that "Isaac" is back to re-visit having gone full circle. In a larger sense, this is similar to what Ivan did several years ago as it went full loop out into the Atlantic and re-entried toward South Florida nearly 10 days after making its initial passage. 

"General" example of path of Ivan and Isaac and very general
forecast depiction in 'black'

In any case, increased moisture convergence along the trough with energy from the mid-levels ("Isaac" so to speak) will increase rain shower chances and some thunder mainly Thursday through Saturday, perhaps Sunday. Lack of a sea breeze  convergence except well east of the spine of the state should provide for a good day or two of storms until 'the remnants' move out into the Atlantic on the heels of by then what appears will be "Powerful Leslie" (hurricane) which is forecast to bring large swells and rip current threats up and down the U.S. East Coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Increased chance of showers and thunder with larger swells moving into the East coast. Rip Current/larger swells and lightning threat increases this weekend, beach goers over the weekend beware.

BEYOND: In the all in all, the thunderstorm wet season ended long ago before Isaac. Granted, some will assuredly argue the point, but tell us then "where are the storms?" 

The only reason we really are only going to have a chance now is from the frontal boundary and remnants of Isaac which is a far cry from the normal 'summer mechanisms' of sea breeze collisions in abundant moisturized and heat energized atmospheric environment one expects in a 'normal summer pattern', whatever that is. In the past 3 years, no two summers have been even close to similar although from an 'outside perspective' one could hardly say they can tell the difference.

The past two summers ..the wet season ended almost perfectly with the first day of Fall (September 21). This year looks far from that. That is not to say thunder is all but forgotten, but it will not be the norm any longer after this week. It might in fact, be quite sometime for any return of thunderstorms, as the boundary works eventually south (per the GFS) and onshore flow ensues, looking much more like an early Fall pattern, at least in the interim. That does not mean, however, the tropically related threat 'potential' does not continue to lurk well into October and early November.

Eroding Thunder Chances East Coast through Weekend

Chances of showers and thunder again today, although coverage of thunder will be less than yesterday

TODAY: Much of the forecast it seems depends on some 'expansion' of low pressure features surrounding Issac in the mid-levels. With very light south winds aloft and a sea breeze already a bit in place, suspect that even though steering will becoming more SW by early afternoon from 2000 ft and above, the sea breeze will by this time by beyond US1 at least. Steering toward the east coast most prominent from Titusville and north. Storm or two could form along the sea-lake breeze boundary near Ft. Pierce and work up the coast. Outflow from that activity combined with greater coverage near I-4 outflow could result in activity linger over inland portions of East Central with a drift toward the coast, thus light rain could reach the immediate coast (or at least cloud cover) after 6pm if not a bit sooner. Best instability today will be along the east coast sea-breeze toward I-95 from Daytona and Southward. A secondary area not shown is toward JAX, but cloud coverage might cancel out said chance, so I did not include it in this post. Greatest coverage to occur after 4pm through 7pm.

BEYOND: A steering away from the east coast toward the west side commences after sunset. From this point and beyond into the weekend it looks mostly like it will be portions of the west half of the state that will see the majority of thunderstorms, with a small chance of showers near the coast either on Friday or Saturday as a result of a trough to move offshore the NE U.S. working south and offshore in the next few days. I suspect this might only result in some nebulous clouds, but guidance is showing some wayward showers in the Friday or Saturday time from, primarily over South Central and South Florida as well as in far North Florida.  

TROPICS: Other than Isaac , there are no concerns in the forefront for quite some time to come. At least not through next week.

Storms Up and Down the East Coast Possible after Mid-Afternoon Possible

Screen capture of latest visible satellite imagery shows Isaac south of Louisiana drifting toward the WNW (it seems). And lines of cumulus with some thunder showers getting underway across Central portions as of 1:30pm

TODAY: Sea breezes should help aid in some stronger activity with cooler air aloft today in the wake of the warm air aloft associated with the Tropical Cyclone to the west of the state. Steering just above the surface is predominantly from the SSW-SW around 15-22mph this afternoon and may increase yet more north of Lake Okeechobee later today as high pressure in the mid levels begins to build across South Florida. Otherwise, the atmosphere is fully saturated.

Would expect that any activity will move out to sea fairly quickly; however, backdraft outflows could enhance or back build into some coastal locations, especially just north of where the mid level ridge builds in namely from St. Lucie County north toward South Volusia County. Strongest storms could be restricted to Central Brevard and north, but any additional rainfall toward St. Lucie and Martin Counties either way (if it occurs) will not be 'appreciated' after the multiple inches accumulated in this area yesterday. Convergence appears could be greatest anywhere though East Central with multiple interactions of off shore moving activity resulting in potentially more than one round of thunder or continued light to moderate rains almost anywhere north of Ft. Pierce as it appears now. Wind gusts toward 40-50mph are possible  with the first storms of the day in any one area (primarily) while instability is maximized before the atmosphere gets 'worked over', with frequent lightning possible for short duration where storms pulse upward just at and beyond the sea breeze.

As it appears now, with activity already underway as can be seen in the above image, the later activity toward 3:45-4:15pm should occur from Brevard County and South..with slower steering south of Vero Beach in particular. Thus, any heavier storm toward Ft. Pierce or even into West Palm Beach area where huge rainfall totals occurred yesterday will only be appreciated by the mosquito and toad populations. However, this is the one area that is a bit questionable in regard to rainfall today. Much, be it as it may, depends on how quickly the high pressure begins to assert itself in tango with the motion of Isaac which is no hurry to make landfall (in full), if not until Wednesday after day break at least.

WEDNESDAY: Much will depend again on those latter two features ("Isaac" and ridge) in regard to where rains will fall on Wednesday but suspect it will be mainly locations over the North half or so of the state, isolated elsewhere. Steering should become weaker as well. In short, tomorrow there will be storms but to delineate exactly where at this time is to dependent upon the anomalous entity called, "Isaac".

BEYOND: Easterly flow begins to dominate the picture across the state with most storms occurring over the west half of the state for several days into the weekend, although it will be quite light. A hint of a tropical type like wave might result in isolate showers near the coast of Central or South, but this too is way beyond worth including in discussion for now.

Isaac's Pull Toward Zero Gravity - Bobbing for the Poison Apple

Best guess impacts based on NAM/FIM/GFS/ECMWF Trends show this could be mainly a coastal event north of Ft. Pierce due to timing of overnight Sunday into mid-afternoon Monday before the storm winds tighter and pulls away from the Central and Southern Peninsula. Any tornado threat might be limited to landfalling waterspouts toward Eastern Orange County and south along I-95 toward interior portions near Lake Okeechobee and up the west coast .
Highest impacts overall in the boxes.

TODAY: Except with the rain anomaly running up the east coast into Volusia and across South Florida/Keys, the rest of the day will be quiet as surface winds begin to increase over South Florida toward sunset with the exception of the Keys to remain very breezy through the duration of their event.

Storm Isaac is now over Eastern Cuba and is barely discernible except in visible satellite animations. This will be the case most of the day and into tonight until well past midnight when the center is expected to emerge in the waters of the Florida Straits north of Central Cuba.  Fairly rapid organization is expected from this point and beyond as the storm moves between WNW-NW into the Keys during the day on Sunday. 

Tropical storm conditions appear fairly certain for Palm Beach county - south and westward, perhaps as far north as Ft. Pierce, although a warning box is out as far north as Sebastian Inlet. 

Further north, although winds can be gusty, at this rate they do not appear they will be unusually so. Rainfall will work up the coast and reach the area near 528/Port Canaveral by early afternoon and increase into the evening as the Storm begins to emerge into the Gulf and take its NW-NNW turn. 

The latest GFS track with others model in tow is quite close to the Hurricane Center's forecast, and the GFS is quite adamant on nailing the Cape area of Brevard toward Port St. John, Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, North Cocoa toward I-95, Merritt Island with some good rains, but the winds outside of squalls will not be anything beyond the "Anonymous No Name" of last October. 

 There is also a chance of tornadoes, especially land falling waterspouts along the east coast as the best wind shear will occur early Monday morning before sunrise through mid-afternoon near the beaches and rivers where frictional drag is minimized. The most instability during this time frame will be advected onto the shore from the warm Atlantic waters whereas land areas will not be able to destabilize under cloud cover. This is NOT to say the entire region across the peninsula will not be under a tornado watch, however, as models seldom if ever truly pick up on the rain bandings.

 Best shear overall appears will be across the west half of the state toward Orlando, but whether the heavier squalls will reach here remains up in the air.   But is so, crayola that area in if you wish.

This post is geared toward the line of thinking that the storm will wind to tightly after early afternoon for  much of the turning motions required for rotating mini-supercells to hold fast during peak heating anyway. 

Therefore, outside of this mere blog post, as always heed all statements transmitted by the National Weather Service and the Hurricane Center via Weather Radio and media outlets. Chances are, local TV Channels will be airing live coverage during the time frame from overnight Sunday and through much of Monday, so unless one loses electricity, the TV is a valuable asset to get a good visual on what is actually occurring as well as approaching any one area/location  during these hours. Primarily for Central from 2pm Sunday through 2pm Monday.

The Tropical Cyclone appears could make landfall in the red box area as a minimal hurricane, at least measured above ground level.  That is not to say the storm will not be dubbed a hurricane any time along the path from the Keys onward, but chances are many of the winds at that time of sustained hurricane strength will remain above the ground around 5000 feet.

BEYOND: Some trailing vorticity streamers and ample moisture as winds become more southerly to SSW could result in warm and muggy conditions Tuesday through Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms toward mainly the East Coast.

*** REFER TO ALL OFFICIAL STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. THIS POST
 DOES NOT COVER ANY EXTRA MEASURES AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN WHAT APPEARS MOST OBVIOUS AT THIS TIME.  THIS BLOG IS NOT A VALID SOURCE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION**** 

Very Little Activity Today with Light Wind

Image might be generous. Could be a storm near or west of Orlando area as any outflow or shadow effect from cloud coverage to the north combined with a weak sea breeze from the west coast and Lake breezes manifests a shower or storm there. Toward the east side the same general properties exist (possibilities). Toward South Florida models are showing a storm there, however it appears too much mid-level drying might have already taken shape but never say never. Same goes toward North Brevard where 'if' a storm or two can manifest outflows cloud produce some light rain or a cloud deck 

TODAY: Surface ridge that had been toward South Florida is lifting north and now resides across Central Florida with calm winds. Clouds are on the way out, so inland heating should not be an issue today. Dry air in the mid-levels is being noted so activity to form in and near the drier air should be isolated at best. The mid-level ridge axis remains toward Lake Okeechobee all day, so steering from Central Brevard and north remains from the SW-WSW which could mean little if no activity gets started. Suspect a sea breeze will form from the east in general but remain fairly light all day all areas. Cloudy skies to the north should preclude much if any in actual thunder activity other than one thundershower now in progress.

FRIDAY: Continued easterly flow develops and dry air works in more so. Next shot of showers could be on Saturday coming in off the ocean as the dry slot erodes.

TROPICS: Latest GFS now coming out up through Friday is close to the previous run. It is noticed that there is little in surface winds around the surface circulation which is now shown approaching Jamaica but the mid level circulation is much larger. It is north of the Dominican that the strongest winds are actually manifest, likely as a result of pressure gradient winds from high pressure to the north. The NWS/NHC centers are watching this system as amplified across the airwaves. It is noticed that if this storm becomes a hurricane it will be minimal, at least as it appears now although that could change. We might have to watch, given the weak surface reflection, for a new center to emerge 'elsewhere' which could be north of the landmasses. If so, the track of the system would have to shift more toward the east. As it appears now there is a close bundle of tracks that take the system toward the Central Key's and east toward Miami/Ft Lauderdale as a solid tropical storm or minimal hurricane. The NAM insists on forming a new center north of the eastern tip of Cuba as the circulation passes between the DR and that island, possibly as a result of frictional drag of the low level winds across the DR. (Dominican Republic). The main squeeze models insist on a bundle along to just off shore the west coast toward Panama City narrowly skirting Ft Meyers and Tampa (in general). Much will be revealed on Saturday, as warmest sea surface temperatures are showing up north of Cuba. In the last few hours convective cloud tops have warmed significantly over a region that had flared up earlier. In short, time will tell with little expected gain in strength, but refer to the NHC (the hurricane center).

Some Strong/Marginal Severe Wind Gusts Possible in Storms Today

Downpour with rain-free ,lightning producing updraft  
over Cape Canaveral on Tuesday

RECAP: Abnormal amounts of rain and lightning for a summer day as depicted in the graphic of yesterday's post where multiple storms occurred. Rainfall varied vastly depending on one's location relevant to re-occurring cell propagation paths, with my location received 3.21". Highest rainfall totals were near the Tampa Area with one unofficial report well over 7" near South Pasadena. Not expecting such high totals today.  Wind gusts of 68mph and 78mph were reported by mesonet locations in Brevard County, with damage noted in that same county in several locations.

TODAY: Varied theme today due to continued cloud coverage resulting in lower low-level and mid-level lapse rates, although this will change during the course of the mid-late afternoon, especially for those areas in and near where big cloud breaks are most prevalent.  Sea breeze along the east coast due to cloud cover will be harder to come by, with showers and thunder already nearly half way across the state near I-4 toward 528. Believe the strongest activity will occur as a result of outflows from this activity and propagation along any sea breezes south of the Cape, with back-drafts from offshore showers/storms resulting in potentially more than one rain chance from Cape Canaveral toward Ft pierce or Vero Beach north of the Lake Okeechobee shadow in the WSW steering of 20kts.  Chances are it will be the first storm (or second) that will contain any strong winds since after that point cooling due to rain cooled air will erode the low level lapse rate differential.  Down Draft Cape over South Florida and dry mid level drying might prevent storms of strength altogether, but domino propagation south toward West Palm might result in an isolated event.

THURSDAY: One more day of a similar pattern, although coverage at this rate not expected to be as extensive. Surface ridge will be located already toward at least Lake Okeechobee which will lift further north on Friday putting an end to the pattern over the southern 2/3rds of the state. Easterly flow is then expected to develop across much of the state by Friday into the weekend as the upper level trough just north of the state is lifted north and east in response to a ridge of higher pressure building eastward from the Southwest U.S.

BEYOND: No surprises here regarding Isaac. The 'gravity' of the situation regarding the developing system's intensity and path are still, as always, up for grabs, debate, speculation, and gossip. At this conjunction, we can at least refer to various model projections varying from 15-75 miles off the east coast as a Category II Hurricane to on or just up a tracing of the entire west coast. Looking at history, such a path has never occurred, at least as far as what the morning GFS of 12Z shows. The previous run was a track similar to Hurricane Cleo of 1974 up the Center of the State, while the GFDL looked quite similar to that of Hurricane David of 1979 up the east coast. The apple falls not far from the tree.

Understand  that these are merely mathematical calculations based on current conditions which change continuously, and are thus a sampling of a wide variety of other schemes. The ECMWF has the storm now missing the state entirely
As a result of the future course of ISAAC, the weekend forecast is interminable.  It is noticed that if the storm takes a west coast track, it appears the storm overall will be a bit 'right handed/heavy'. This would the entire state in the NE quadrant of the storm at various times which could be or pose a tornado hazard.  On the other hand, an east coast track would pose little heavy rainfall threat other than close to the circulation. There is no  accounting for unexpected slowing down of the storm, which throws all to oft the track completely out of whack regardless of what any model at this point indicates

"Swirl Overhead!"

Another Shot At Storms, Better Than Yesterday Central?

Another shot of storms today, might be earlier nearest I-4 and north, with
2 rounds possible East Central Cape South to Ft. Pierce and inland

TODAY: Not a whole lot different than yesterday although South Florida was contaminated by outflow off Cuba from the South overnight which might have stabilized this area a bit much. Additionally, guidance is showing a dry slot toward South Central north of Lake Okeechobee. With daytime heating this could be exasperated and make numerous showers/storms difficult to manifest, although the SE Shores toward Palm Beach county could see something active toward the beaches...this drier slot was the case yesterday across Central portions south of I-4. The past two afternoons have been thrown a bit out of whack by Down Draft CAPE appearing by early afternoon, yesterday quite so much so that storms could only really form along the sea breeze front late afternoon from the Cape and South where convergence was maximized in earnest. 

Different story today as the signal for a good sea breeze is not readily apparent per the mainstream models, but regardless would think it feasible to tack on a sea breeze from the Cape and south where action should be delayed a bit. Showers/thunder could go a bit earlier near the Cape if so, but would not expect that activity if it forms to be the only show in town in that same area later on in the afternoon toward early evening. Otherwise, it will be near and north of I-4 action might get started the earliest.

Further north, with faster steering and deeper moisture one shot at storms might cloud the area over resulting in a rain shield, whereas further south better mixing with the drier air just south of the Beachline across toward Sarasota could result in a training effect, especially wherever that remnant boundary to the south has ended up which I suspect is just south of the Beach line. Time will tell. Temperatures aloft a bit warmer than yesterday, barely so though. All in all, a few stronger storms will be possible if we can get a sea breeze in near the coast. The latest NAM shows one big fat rain blob later this afternoon so it looks like today will be getting sticky after 5pm in regard to storm strength potential (being weak) if so. One other model shows a ribbon of strong storms from near Port St John south toward Vero moving off shore late today, thus the red line indication.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Another day like today before things change on Thursday and rain chances begin to wane slowly.  

TROPICS: As expected, the tropics are making headlines now. Latest GFS runs since yesterday continue to show at least a strong tropical storm impacting the state of Florida by early next week, with the ECMWF taking a bit longer and stronger with a more western side of the state to just offshore track. Other models show the system missing the state entirely to the east well off shore..with one working the east coast from Miami toward JAX. All in all , then..not much change and expect we will hear everything but the kitchen sink in coming days due to the proximity of the Dominican Republic and Cuba being thrown in to the batter as the Potter's Wheel spins and things begin to mold and brush land-masses throwing a wrench into storm strength forecast determinations all the more heart-wretching.

Strong-Marginal Severe Storms Through Wednesday, Tropical Stand By Potential

Image not all inclusive as all along the east coast and along and North of I-4 have the 'red potential for strong

TODAY: Deep mid-upper level trough which is quite unusually placed so far south continues in place extending north to south from near James Bay toward the Deep South and well into the Gulf. Surface ridge south of Florida places SW-WSW storm steering currents across the state between those two features. 

KSC sounding shows mid-level temperatures have dropped back down a degree or two, and more cooling could occur this afternoon at that level.  It also appears a sea breeze will form potentially as far north as Volusia, but more likely Brevard and South to get toward  US1/I-95 north of the Big Lake. Highest instability across the South 1/2 of the state and toward the east coast of Central, but this will be greatly contingent on cloud cover across Volusia. Shear and the presence of divergence aloft north of I-4 strongest but greatest combination of divergence and instability could be toward Brevard late today toward sunset. Moisture no issue with varying dry and moist slots throughout the column of storm bearing heights in the atmosphere. 

Given the factors today, there could be small hail (non-damaging), and strong wind gusts toward 40-55mph, especially after 5pm, but all storms could contain frequent lightning and some excessively so especially where outflow boundaries collide with the east coast sea breeze and as storms work against that breeze toward the east coast after 5pm south of I-4 and more so near and south of 528 to Ft. Pierce. Onset earliest along and north of I-4 with outflows working south from the north increasing shear at the mid-levels Central and low level shear on approaching activity due to sea breeze along the East Coast Brevard/Indian River/St Lucie counties where also low level coastal surface vorticity/slight helicity could be present. It all comes down to timing though, and if late, things could change quickly after 5-6pm for Brevard south to St. Lucie. Waterspouts might become an issue, or funnel clouds might be observed in one or two instances as well. Dragon flies are hovering this morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Differing variations of this theme continue, with perhaps a better chance of stronger storms on Tuesday..but all in all it's a day by day, play by play.

BEYOND/TROPICS: Surface ridge continues to be forecast to lift to Central by later in the weak as a tropical disturbance is forecast to become a depression by the two main models approaching Cuba. The latest GFS (two consecutive runs) as well as the latest ECMWF made available early this A.M. both show this disturbance to curve around the southern periphery of this ridge toward South Florida which cannot lift out due to the departing trough to the north that is effecting our weather the past two days through mid-week this week. 

This would be good timing for such a scenario since a trough of this depth now in place would by then no longer be taking hold (for so long) at this early time of the year (that is, for a trough this deep that looks more like fall). 

The GFS takes this disturbance as a solid tropical storm up the west coast ..but the latter run now coming in as I type takes it up the Center of the state. The ECMWF is showing a similar scenario.

Thus, by Monday (this time next week) we MIGHT already be in some form of a tropical alert mode for strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and a tornado watch. All this is preliminary considering how far out in time this is...time will tell.  The GFS then brings a second disturbance to follow the same general course but a bit further north toward the east coast, but the signal is very very weak right now and it is so far out in time the ECMWF (the European model) does not even go this far out. Crystal ball mode. 

In summary, confidence level has doubled since yesterday in the first case for 'something' to effect Florida next week..this will likely be heralded across all air- waves today and on TV at some point, but it is not definite.

Similar To Yesterday, Only A Bit Later with Thunder

WHITE TEXT ABOVE

TODAY (SUNDAY): Looks like a faux repeat of yesterday with the early morning boundary missing that was across Central yesterday. As such, earlier activity at this conjuncture not anticipated (pre-noon) but should see activity appear near East Central by 1-2pm time frame moving toward the beaches. We have clear skies in this location now as of mid morning, but satellite imagery reveals a different story in other locations, so heating and destabilization might take a bit longer to manifest in more clouded regions, thus too later for....the showers and storms as they trek across the state from the west to west south west.

 Perhaps the strongest activity will be off the tip of the Cape and near Vero and Ft. Pierce (where a sea breeze could develop). Elsewhere, any sea breeze from the Cape south will be glued and limited to the A1A Strip Bar to US1 or even i-95 in Palm Beach County. Showers to move off shore, with the strongest activity and propagation resulting in development southward toward North or Central Palm Beach County (at least). Morning soundings show slight warming in the mid levels so severe not likely.

BEYOND: Similar scenario Monday, but as the surface ridge now south of the state attempts to lift north, the low level pressure gradient will weaken and allow the sea breezes to work with each other a bit more. This potential aspect combined with cooler air aloft could result in stronger activity late Monday and/or Tuesday into Wednesday. The front mentioned yesterday now looks like it might not ever make it toward the panhandle.

TROPICS: This general pattern of typically wet season summer weather appears will come toward an end possibly near the end of the week as the GFS is now in agreement with the ECMWF to bringing a disturbance toward Cuba and South Florida later on down the line near this time next week or so. What has been showing up as a follow up Hurricane potential seems to have dwindled by the dying embers of the camp fire heat sources in the Atlantic, but who knows what the Witches are Brewing up.  Interestingly though, the tropical wave or depression gets hung up as an inverted trough across Central for several days resulting in tropical like downpours and inches upon inches of rainfall , with a low forming along its NE boundary off the Carolinas. This could easily change in model runs ahead.

Early-Mid Afternoon Showers / Storms Again Today

As can be seen, showers and storms forming after 10AM Already moving toward the east. Best dynamics are from Daytona North, so although not noted in this image, there is a chance of stronger storms from DAB to JAX near the beach

TODAY: Model guidance of a few days ago did well in capturing the west to east storm steering winds to increase as is now indicated by morning sounding data and alluded to here previously. Winds at 2000 ft could permit the east coast sea breeze to form but remain east of US1 at best, if at all for that matter. Seriously questioning if it can do more than get as far as the eastern most barrier island at best and if even. 

Cloud cover could reduce differential surface heating once activity starts to build and cloud/anvil debris puts in crimp in the storm operative style, but it appears there will be time for a sea breeze from the Cape South,   barely. 

More likely from Sebastian or Vero and South. Otherwise, farther north an early morning 'boundary' made for a 'roll cloud' like feature to move across that area and it is now decaying toward the Cape. This feature could add fuel to storms near or just south of it, especially if the sea breeze can initiate. Thus, the South or Central Brevard area to Vero could be in for a good storm today. Otherwise, temperatures aloft are close to yesterday but seem to be a degree or two warmer in the mid levels so chances are all things will equal out for something potentially 'out of the norm' to occur like a funnel cloud as what occurred and photographed but an alert observer, but the strongest activity might end up occurring as the storms move offshore, especially from Melbourne and North of there, rather than on the land area. There is a chance the warming aloft might be temporary as well, so in other words, would not expect that graphic to be all it's made out to be...with coverage from JAX to MIA from weak to strong just about anywhere.

BEYOND: Same sort of set up through Tuesday, with the day's activities contingent upon what occurs if anything early on or even over night. Latest satellite imagery shows 4 distinct impulses rotating around the base of the trough centered from an upper level low near James Bay (of all places) from NE Colorado East South Eastward to Central Georgia. It is a very large trough cutting down the eastern third of the U.S. accompanied by a developing surface front with time, which could make it as far south as the Florida Panhandle before frontalysis takes place (decay).

As this does so, a low level ridge is forecast (now south of the state) to lift north with time by late week allowing sea breeze convergence type activity to form but continue to press toward the east side of the state into the weekend, next.

TROPICS: The GFS has a developing hurricane passing well to the east of Florida pegging coastal North Carolina, whereas the ECMWF shows two separate impulses developing in the eastern Caribbean, one which passes south of Florida and across the western top of Cuba, with the latter a bit further north  toward Puerto Rico on an east to ENE course. The GFS has been showing something that it depicts a somewhat similar for many days now, but the location and destination has been as questionable as a tourist figuring out which tourist trap it wants to head toward, will it be Nova Scotia or somewhere else. In any case, we will likely be hearing more and more about one if not two features in the next 7-10 days.

Twist of Fate Day Explained, Strong/Severe Warned Possible

Activity over Gulf Could send an Outflow Boundary out across North Half of State Too Early

TODAY: "Twist of Fate' Meaning a twist to the day's forecast contingent upon what occurs with that large storm cluster off shore in the Gulf. If outflow occurs and blows across the North Half, then storms might try to initiate to early before the east coast sea breeze has a grasp on the situation and before instability can build up. That possibility at this time is indeterminable and even so might not make that much of a difference, only to prevent stronger activity there. Strongest activity well could be further south though from Central Osceola toward South Brevard and southward toward Lake Okeechobee toward West Palm, but not anyone appears to be immune to impossibles. Even earlier activity could form near the Cape as soon as the sea breeze starts by 2pm.

Otherwise, cool temperatures aloft are again forecast in the mid-levels across Central although some guidance paints the entire state being cooler at those levels. With no inhibition and ample moisture, that also means an early start (somewhere). 

It does appear a 'boundary' is in the making from Bradenton to south Central Brevard and suspect some tricky mis-guided doings and surprises are in today's package of tricks along those lines especially toward the east coast.  Earlier activity less strong, stronger activity after 4pm per yesterday's chain of limited events except toward East Central. Steering is also stronger toward the east all regions and earlier activity will only enhance the effects from outflows toward the coast, strongest north of West Palm by a few miles per hour, thus activity should not dawdle as much as yesterday along the Indian River of Brevard and south, lingering longer South Central to parts of Southern portions.

It would be pertinent to be aware of activity AS it forms today, as the first bolts oft occur outside of the rain area, or when it is barely raining. This holds true for beach goers as well. If you hear thunder, it's best to make head way away to safe shelter, meaning the inside of a building. If one does not hear thunder but sees towering clouds, same holds true even more so!... leapin' 'lizards' know no bounds...by miles even, zap.

BEYOND: No change from previous post, day by day basis analysis for showers and thunder possible through the weekend and at least into early next week. .

Similar To Yesterday, Same Through Saturday

The only difference today is temperature aloft might be a bit cooler in the red zone east central, otherwise, the wind patterns have changed very little. The rest is up to chance

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday, same holds for the weekend. Upper level trough to deepen with the core low well toward the Great Lakes if not Canada. As it 'deepens' (or pressures fall) so too will the trough over the eastern 1/3 of the U.S.  which could increase steering toward the east coast (mainly northern 2/3rd of state) a bit more by the weekend. Otherwise, deep moisture with drying in the mid levels, cool temps aloft that are less than otherwise   a full bore tropical environment, could lead to some stronger storms with heavy rainfall mainly beginning after 5pm through dark if not later contingent upon remaining out flow boundaries and unadulterated, energized areas awaiting to activate.

Activity most likely to work off the east coast from North Brevard on up, but propagation from those  storms could result in enhanced activity further south to work both east and to the south and move off shore as far south as almost Vero or so, if those areas are not too worked over  early on or are encompassed by high level cirrus from earlier activity. Once it is dark, it becomes irrelevant as lifted condensations levels will be then be lower making it easier for storms to self-sustain a bit longer..and move faster on their own accord by self propagation within their own storm mechanism structure. Would not be surprised to see some severe warnings and reports today, or bordering toward that due to winds...maybe pea hail to smaller than that.

BEYOND: Continued storm chances each and every day with heavy rainfall and gusty winds in and near the storms, especially toward evening. We received here 1.80" of rain in a relatively short time frame after dark last night, with powerful CG lightning mainly off shore as the storms regenerated yet even still. Some gust winds were realized as well, knocking pool furniture into the pool.

The Summer Games are On and Unchanging, Win!

Monday, August 13th at a Cape Canaveral Manatee and Exercise Part

Dot...dot...dot.

Possible Stronger Storms Today in Red Zone for Starters, One Severe Warning Just Issued near Tampa at 3:40pm

TODAY: Not much to say really, if you know what yesterday was like you're good through Friday with minor variations to the same theme. I hear thunder as of this typing, but there's no rain (here), at least not yet. Highest instability appears to be across Central with activity already having begun. Steering is light from west to east about 8-12 mph, and sea breeze collision has yet to occur. 

Therefore, with late day enhancements adorning the low level wind pattern as   the sea breezes meet  with additional outflows from earlier activity, could see some strong storms continue yet very isolated into early evening. I really did not spend too terribly much time going into high refinement mode as this pretty much sums it up in the absence of strong winds aloft, extraordinarily cold air aloft not so much, and lack of synoptic scale boundaries as it appears providing for standard Summer 2012 fare, "It" has finally arrived (although one might have thought so along time ago, in a sense, the storm patterns never really did). Let the games begin..

Wednesday through Friday?   dot..dot..dot...

Transition day -Showers/Storms Possible Mainly North Half

Remnant hint of mid-level trough near edge of bounds of high pressure shows in the band of gray across Central which started out as greater cloud coverage early today could play in  later on.

TODAY: Transition day. Transition from what? Hurricane/Storm Ernesto has made landfall and has thus moved far enough from Florida to stop effecting the mid-upper level pressure pattern. As a result, although steering is weak, from near the Cape and north it is from the west to northwest, whereas below that they winds are negligent. Precipitable water values are remnant from the Tropical Wave over the weekend and have been lingering in the region for days now, but the greatest concentration is north half as further south, this region is indirectly being sucked dry by Ernesto. Guidance shows a deep moisture surge along the SE Florida coast but satellite imagery does not reflect this to be the case, at least not yet. Therefore, with sea breeze convergence closer toward the West Coast and latest guidance reflecting some cooler air aloft could mean either storms could form for one reason or the other SW of Lake Okeechobee with some colder air aloft sneaking in. 

The better likelihood is to the north though. With the storm pulling away in a near COL pattern over Central and South Florida the mid-level trough further north is now permitted to work south more during the day to some degree between meeting the eastern Atlantic ridge axis barely reaching across Central Florida in the lower portions of the mid-levels toward Central.

With that said, steering is from the west to even NW later today toward East Central. Chances are any rain will remain west of I-95 South of I-4 but it is not guaranteed. It could be the zone south of I-4 will see increased mid-level clouds later today and that will be that, with the better chance of possibly even offshore moving showers and thunder from Central or North Volusia and west (and north of there). There is a bit of a dry mid-level slot across South Central which might have thrown earlier model runs off, because they are no longer showing storms NW of the Big Lake as was the case earlier. That, will only be determined later today, but for now have left that region out in the rain coloring schematic.

TOMORROW: Some general pattern continues with better chances of rain (but barely) from SW Florida NEward toward I-4 and north Florida with other showers elsewhere, although the immediate coast south of I-4 is in question, but likely a no-go for rain at this conjecture.

WORKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND: Appears moisture from a few tropically undefined by name or status 'wave like perturbances'  could be working toward Florida with a shift toward a more Southerly to SSE in the low levels to SW steering and overall wind direction ensuing, albeit light. This would mean an increasing in afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity from a broader perspective, with activity hedging toward the east coast and potentially cloud lines and showers setting up along to just west of the east coast intracoastal waterways. Warm and muggy as would be expected.

TROPICALLY BEYOND: The GFS has been showing except in one out of four daily runs for two solid days a hurricane approaching the U.S. east coast toward the third week of August. This is quite far out in time though, and could suddenly disappear at the drop of a dime. The EURO does not even go that far out in time for clarification purposes on any actually threat which has varied with a margin of error, or cone of error, that extends from the Florida east coast to just off Maine. The pretty much covers the bases and says essentially nothing..but for now, just an itch behind the ear. Might not hurt to look in the pantry and buckle up on storm preparations though since we are approaching the Peak of Storm Season going from Late August through September and into early October. Nothing like being caught with the pants down and nothing to buckle up with before the thundering throngs crash the market places and the price grouches  (gougers) play their pawn for check-mate at the counters.