Warmer Through Saturday With Rain Chances Friday

See text above. The 'cold front' entered Central around 2 or 3AM and quickly dwindled...this is apparent in the next image based on surface temperatures. High clouds could move in some areas later today, but remain quite thin making for a pretty sunset if they do so. It could warm up more ..up the spine of the state past
I-4 as the day progresses

TODAY: Dry and pleasant reigns the roost today, but a bit cool to the north side of the state after the weak frontal boundary crossed on through. High clouds as seen above might move in later in the afternoon, after peak heating though, so little affect to the diurnal temperature regime will be noted. Light wind overnight from the east could hold coastal lows into the 60Fs with 50Fs elsewhere, but over all the trend in temperatures is up....for a few days..to hold more steady during the day near the east coast beaches as a result of cooler sea air temperature modification.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The next frontal boundary approach and the one after that are signaling a signification shift in the over all synoptic scale weather pattern over the U.S. from later this week into next week's as 'mis-guidance' starts to diverge after around Saturday; so, there is still much to be revealed. Overall though, chance of showers east coast toward the south comes later Friday before the front comes too close. Then SW winds on Saturday will really warm things up all regions. The boundary could get to Central, then lift back north as a warm front.

SATURDAY: Very warm with highs in the lower to mid-80Fs. Breezy SW wind.

BEYOND: So far, it appears the front will never clear Central. This is due to strong high pressure ridging south from James Bay off the U.S. East coast and merging with high pressure already in place well to the east of Florida creating a blocking pattern. However, the next huge upper low and the dynamics associated with it are very complex..and the net result is a dual component to it with yet another system dropping south from Alaska. Sort of like a 'wave within a larger wave'...it is with that next system which is already so far out in time we run into problems given the amount of time until this yet to actually exist low pressure system enters the picture, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.

Example: Last nights GFS shows big rains for the late Sunday into Monday time frame..or even early Tuesday. The last run is not much different either. It is what happens beyond that time frame that is of quite the quandary  The GFS is showing for a prolonged 'chill down' going into March..whereas every other model runs or so show a severe weather event instead. Coin toss. I'm hedging for the latter though at this point,  as a matter of prejudice of cold weather...and nothing more than that. 

Cold Spell Abates as Temperates Flare

One PM afternoon visible satellite picture from the sky shows the anticipate lower mid level clouds beginning to work across the Peninsula as High Pressures moves East while another front approaches from the west 

TODAY: No surprises since last Friday's post. Winds have switched onshore as anticipated and low 'starting-to-cloud-up' intermittent stratocumulus clouds have begun to advect ashore in return easterly flow. 

Extensive cloud coverage not expected although they could thicken close toward sunset near the immediate beaches south of I-4 toward Ft. Pierce. Wind light from the ENE slowly veering to east then east-southeast to southeast after dark.  Highs today in the mid-upper 60Fs.  

Lows this morning varied from the lower 40Fs along A1A from the Cape to Miami and it was colder everywhere else in the state with a reading near 19F in the low interior area of JAX noted on their observations. Other freezing temperatures were noted elsewhere though, with lows into the mid to lower 30Fs as far south as between Punta Gorda and Venice on the west coast interior. 

TONIGHT: Warmer all areas, with overnight readings in the 40Fs range interior and west, in general, except east of US1 and  south of I-4, with warmest readings from Canaveral and south as wind become SSE and begin to increase. 50Fs closer to I-95 to US 1.

Temperatures might fall very little along A1A after 8 or 9pm and might even increase after 3AM into the lower 60Fs to mid 60Fs south of Vero Beach.

TUESDAY: Breeze from the SW and highs in the low-mid 70Fs with some upper 70Fs South Florida  always possible as the next front approaches. Any rain with that front will be north of I-4 at best.

Afternoon placement of surface features today, Monday

TUESDAY NIGHT -WEDNESDAY: The front should be whisking by Central sometime around 1AM Thursday morning with little effect other than to result in after noon highs a bit cooler than Tuesday but warmer than today's highs will be. High clouds could start to move in prior to frontal passage and be more abundant behind it though. This front is very shallow, barely penetrating upward vertically about 2000 ft with a quick easterly wind shift behind it. Thus, the cooler temperatures will be in place primarily due to potential high cloud coverage which is to be in place through Thursday or maybe into Friday as well. Air temperatures temperately comfort-able. 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Looks like the warmest day now will be Saturday, with highs in the lowers 80Fs if not warmer. High Clouds to move out as the line of thinking this afternoon so far. From Saturday on through early next week is where a scenario is unfolding per the GFS which is not consistent with previous runs.

That being, the front never gets south of Central Florida by Sunday , but rather moves back north as a warm front. If that is so, we could see showers or thunder on Sunday afternoon Central to North Central and then again on Monday into Tuesday. The trend will be interesting to monitor though. 

In regard to late month severe, that potential has popped up in one out of six model runs (which are posted ever 6 hours) since the previous post, but the majority rule so far 'was' for another very cool spell..but given that would be going into the first week of March (although totally possible) we are beginning to enter a change in the seasons Florida  style, which makes extended outlooks even more unreliable than unreliable at best.

Cold Blast Thru Central before Dark, Warm Tuesday

Current cold front position as of 1:15PM this Saturday afternoon on 2/16.  It so far appears it will cross the CDL (Central Dividing Line) before sunset by about an hour or so as the sun starts to get 'lower to the sky' 

TODAY: As noted above. Expecting a temperature drop of about 10F degrees after passage accompanied by some cloud coverage.  We could attribute the larger temperature drop due to the issue of it being so late in the day and solar heating will begin to be lost, with peak heating this time of the year around 2:30 - 3pm.

TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY: Guidance has BACKED OFF on how cold it will get tonight per the last two GFS runs. Whether-Weather that holds water is hard to say, but for all purposes it looks like mostly an upper 30Fs affair for nearly all of Central except far North Central (at best), with lows around 38F - 42F most areas. Breezy.during this time frame. Chances are this is not what is being widely advertised though, so wouldn't hang the wool hat on that one. Either way, it's going to be chilly so it might be best to protect plants and pets (and self).

LATER SUNDAY: Highs in the low 50Fs most areas. Wind becomes much lighter by noon time.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: The A1A strip from Canaveral and South might not fall much in temperature after about 10pm, with a low near 48F, but colder away from A1A to varying degrees (cold ones) toward the west side of the state. High pressure centered near SE Georgia slowly moves off shore with low 60Fs returning and a light east wind. Stratocumulus clouds moving in on the immediate east coast possibly before 11AM Monday morning as wind becomes more SE by nightfall. The cloud should spread inland during the day.

TUESDAY: SW wind by late morning toward noon time and a high in the low-mid 70Fs.

WEDNESDAY: Another front is on the way, but appears will be dry except for North Florida. it will cool things off only minimally, not a big deal. Beyond that time frame, warm into next weekend once again, with potentially near record Highs on Friday. After that, things get to sketchy to exasper-gasp upon.

EXTENDED: Guidance continues to paint a Severe Weather event in the 'unreliable' time frame toward March 3. I recall something like that being indicated last year though as well.  The latest run is totally Outrageous with a low in the Eastern Gulf Of Mexico exhibiting 40 mph surface winds and 70mph winds just above the ground... 'Ode to the  348 hour GFS Curve Ball"...  but does bear monitoring from a curiously  "trend cast perspective".

Clearing Central - Big Cold Front Late Saturday with Gusty Chills

TODAY: Gradual clearing and mostly cloudy today South as shown in this image.
Highs in the lower 70Fs south and mid 60Fs to lower 60Fs Central and North. 

TODAY:  In the next image (below) we'll see that a surface front is well south toward the Keys. The yellow area is where a fragmented 'frontal zone' resides just above ground level to about 4000 ft. Central is catching some fragmentary cloud moments on the north side of that boundary zone along and south of I-4. Light wind today and a bit cool, but otherwise the rain appears to be over for good in regard to the next several days (at least) outside of light "spurty moments" today south Florida.

TONIGHT: There is a good dry slot as we await the mid and upper level support to approach on Saturday. Mildly cool evening with light winds. Note image below. This clear zone is morning in for the overnight and earlier portions of Saturday.

Above shows the current situation. Note the 'white mid level boundary' as depicted. That mid-upper level trough/front will be swinging RAPIDLY into Florida around noon time Saturday and be in the area until after sunset.

SATURDAY: As noted (above), the upper level support to drive colder air into Florida is going to be due to not this front alone, but by that High Pressure area written in as a Big Blue "H". As clockwise circulation around this high develops as it builds eastward, it will 'drag down' colder air from the north. Low pressure could also form near the Carolinas. This will set up a tight pressure gradient by noon time or so . 

Moisture from the 'white front' combined with tight pressure gradient winds could result in increasing clouds from mid-morning and more so after noon to 1pm. Surface winds from the WNW -NW 18 mph G 34 mph with highs on Saturday perhaps a tad warmer than today until the leading edge of the clouds associated with the 'white front' enter the picture.

So far, it's anticipated the actual surge of drier and colder air will cross The Beachline Zone around 4:30 -5pm time frame, with a NOTABLE temperature drop as it does so. By sunset the temperature between 5pm and 8pm could drop as much as 15F degrees or so, but the wind will be the real stinger while clouds persist general south of I-4 until after sunset or near that time frame.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Wind might let up a little after 11pm, with drier and colder air intrusion taking a secondary drop after midnight...then winds begin to let up for day break Sunday. 

Lows in the lower 30Fs toward Sanford, North Orlando.. with the immediate "Barriers" of A1A  somewhere around 38F -42F; likely breezier east of both rivers due to the "Warmer River Water Effect". Continued NNW-N winds Sunday with slowly decreasing winds and clear skies. Highs barley eking 50F.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: The high pressure will approach the coast of South Carolina and as a result a light easterly wind component will be setting up near sunrise Monday. It is possible that right at the beaches near A1A from the Cape South there will be a slight warm up near sunrise Monday morning and again more so, based on timing, Tuesday morning. Monday temperatures will be similar to today's, maybe a bit cooler. It is possible the coldest air Monday morning will 'pool' toward the Tampa Bay - Punta Gorda area (30F degree readings) while right at the beaches on the east coast from the Cape South will be toying with low-mid 50Fs. Chances of increasing low topped coastal stratocumulus clouds from South toward Central Florida Monday afternoon toward sunset due to the onshore flow becoming more ESE-SE.

TUESDAY: Another front on the way for Wednesday  but daytime highs already back into the mid 70Fs as the drama is this time already exited stage left, no wait..right,or is it left (?). In any case, SE winds becoming SW. This next front will eke by as a dry one as the air mass over Florida will have had little time to recoup its moisture loses from Saturday's front.

Cape Canaveral received just over 1 Inch of Rain on Thursday

WEDNESDAY: Front will glide through almost un-noticed other than a wind shift to the ENE. No big temperature drops from that point on are fore-seen as yet another boundary approaches for the next weekend. Guidance so far has shown that one to have little affect on the temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 60Fs toward the low-mid 70Fs and overnight lows in the 50Fs with a few 40Fs will inland and toward the west side of the state.  

BEYOND: As usual, going out beyond Wednesday gets sketchy  but to drop a hint the long range trend has been backing off and a cold air intrusion, well, 50/50...the overall 'feel' of the trend though is the potential for severe weather 'somwhere' in the South East States as we looking toward the last 4 days of February.

St. Valentine's Florida "Blues" Takes Shape

Clouds streaming across Florida with some rain showers. Dashed YELLOW lines indicate various elongated 'troughs' with the prime one oscillating north/south from Dead Central to South Central Florida.  These troughs align parallel to jet stream winds which are adding in mid level lift and hence, rain.  Another trough remains well to the north, and smaller ones to the south. It is lightly raining as I type at  1:30PM 

TODAY: Happy St. Valentines Day (aka, Valentine's Day) -  best and well regards!  So far, per the last post here on the "Weather Made Clearsphere', the weather today is materializing pretty much as expected in varying degrees. All in all as can be seen above, cloud cover is in no way - shape- or form going to be moving out today as temperatures vary vastly from the upper 40Fs far NW Florida to the upper 80Fs far South toward Kendall. Orlando set a record high of 88F degrees yesterday, and it was noted that an 87F came in at Patrick Air Force Base on the 2:55pm surface observation.  Chances of light rain off and with varying clouds; temperatures tonight 'not doing nothing special'. Light winds.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Due to timing issues of resurgences of moisture pockets in the mid levels of the atmosphere it is difficult to get down to exactly how much cloud cover will exist and when it will or will not rain some more. Chances are that by tomorrow things could let up for a while, but guidance does give us two more chances of light rain after today, mainly along and south of I-4 or even the Beach Line. Where it does not rain the temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees warmer than where it does rain.

SATURDAY LATE: So far, guidance is fairly consist in calling for the true frontal passage along with the 850mb and 700mb troughs aloft to occur just prior to sunset Saturday. It could become a bit breezy on Saturday from the WNW-NW, but the true frontal passage appears will be close to 6-7pm time frame throughout the low to mid levels. Cold air advection timing yet still is an issue. Will it occur sooner or later? And why ask?

SUNDAY: If the cold and dry air advection occurs 'soonest', Sunday morning could see low-mid  30Fs as far south as Orlando along with steady and breezy NW winds. On the other hand, be it only 6 hours later, it will not be THAT cold, BUT...the afternoon will be an even cooler to cold time frame for  afternoon high temperatures  All in all though, Sunday afternoon looks to see highs in the Low 50Fs dead central and even colder further north. We could see upper 40Fs though if frontal passage is delayed. Either way though, Sunday is the coldest day of the winter as presumed might be the case.

MONDAY: Potentially not as cold Monday morning, but drainage flow as high pressure is nearly over head could change that for inland locations. East coast from Cape South not as cold or about the same with a slow warm up into the low 60Fs (at least) and warmer South. Continual shifting of surface winds could result in an overnight warm up right at the beach dunes after midnight Monday night, with lows by Tuesday morning there close to 65F.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: By Tuesday it almost looks like it will seem as if the cold snap never even happened; warming in to the 70Fs with SE winds. Some coastal Stratocumulus clouds could start to move in though. After this time frame, guidance is beginning to hold back on the next front just a tad...but no truly cold air is popping up on out there beyond the horizon  long going into the first week of March...not that it will not get 'cooler' again, but 'cold' does not appear to be in the equation.

In summary..no true clearing although some brief periods could occur, until sometime Saturday. Light rain possible here and there and any where up until sometime Saturday as well. Colder after sunset Saturday night through Mid Day Monday. Getting breezy to 'windy' Saturday into Sunday and 'cold' by comparison to the norm of this winter season.  

Warming Trend Thru Wednesday, Then.....Phase II Winter Alert?

Noon time temperature and surface wind as noted in graphic.
This shows ESE surface wind around 15-20mph and warm

TODAY: As noted above. Wind tonight will become more southerly well ahead of an approaching cold front as the high pressure to Florida's East abetting in the increased pressure gradients winds shifts further away to the east. With continued onshore overnight flow, coastal lows tonight will be in the lower 60Fs.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Winds becoming more S-SSW and warmer; a bit breezy as well. Rain free with highs in the Upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs.  A frontal boundary could make it as far south as Central Florida (somewhere) but remain dry except toward the I-10. That will be short lived though as it retreats back north into Georgia as a warm front. Thus, Monday and especially Tuesday will be warm  "all-quads" with breezy SW winds continuing into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: St. Valentine's Eve Day will be breezy and warm as another cold front approaches. Best chance of any rain, and perhaps some thunder will be along to north of I-4, although cloud coverage could increase by mid afternoon as moisture in the atmosphere increases.  The new and better defined front will have  'formulate' as a result of low pressure forming over Texas which will be moving east across the Southern Tiers of the Deep South.

It appears now that the front will be crossing Central Florida well after dark Wednesday night and reach South Florida by Day Break St. Valentine's Day. However! (pause...)  It will be a very shallow post frontal passage air mass (at first) with very cool NNW winds behind it, but only up to about 2000 ft, which is meant by the word 'shallow'. 

Above that level , we await a strong mid level trough to cross the state. In the meantime, strong divergent Jet Stream Level Winds will be screaming overhead resulting in mid level lift and lower level warm air over-running. Where ever that over-running 'zone' ends up could result in persistent light to moderate rain. Guidance has varied from South Central and more to South so far. Regardless....

St. Valentines Day:  So far, it looks to be cloudy south of I-4  as a result of the shallow post cold frontal air mass and over-running combination. Net effect will be quite cool in the temperature department and even cooler where (and if) rain starts to fall. The day might start out cloudy south of I-4 particularly and become increasingly 'thick in the overcast'. Rain showers developing from quite close to the Beach Line corridor and south with time, somewhere from mid-afternoon to sunset and persisting overnight into Friday for the first half of the day. Timing will remain an issue on this guestimate until the Tuesday time frame as model guidance aligns.

MEANWHILE: High pressure will be building South from the Inter-mountain Region into Texas and then shift east slowly, very slowly. Circulation (clockwise) around that high will place Florida in a long-term NW type flow dragging continuous surges of cool to eventually colder air down the spine of the state from Saturday into the following week.

THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT?: There might be some Valentine's Day Blues in the weather department  concerning the lack of blue skies and moist cool air in place. This day might be one of the crummiest days we've seen all winter as well heading into nightfall and into the first portions of Friday. 

Guidance has varied from the scenario just described to much worse as far as rainfall is concerned. Given how far out in time this is though, best to hold back on the confidence game. There is always the possibility that guidance still needs to resolve the Post Blizzard storm situation from the other day, that, as well as any effects the snow covered grounds to the north will have on the strength of post -storm High Pressure systems at lower levels. 

Until snow fall to occur before the boundary ever gets here is resolved, the extent and length of a cool to cold spell is yet to be determined. Although, so far there has been quite a bit of consistency that therein lies the chance this could be the coldest period we've seen all season heading toward this time next week. Don't pack those mukluks,  parkas, gortex face masks, mittens, gloves, hand warmers, muffs,  thermal undies, snow shovels and firewood away just yet.   Ya just nebbbrrrrr know.

"Sandy Land" Storm Developing over Florida - White Powder Not So Sweet

Chance of rain/showers as noted in Green from 6pm - midnight (or so) 

TODAY: As can be seen, a frontal boundary extends as shown above. The parent low will be moving east to ENE in the next 18 hours and quickly lift up the eastern seaboard to just off shore Hatteras. That will provide the ample moisture to fuel heavy snow further north with wrap around  Atlantic moisture laden air surging into cold air over the NE states, accompanied by stronger coastal winds. Another low off this picture will be latching up with this low, a bit like what occurred with the Sandy Sandy back in the fall.  Thus, many of the same areas will be impacted although to a lesser degree and in a different way. The other low and the circulation and high pressure couplet could result in Lake Effect snows in Western NY and parts of PA as well. 

Meanwhile, locally the frontal boundary will take a bit of time to finally slide across Central and South Florida due to it's configuration now running parallel along the Jet Stream supporting winds well aloft. As one can see, as that red "L" moves east the front is going to take a while to pass on through.

Latest guidance shows little chance of rain south of I-4, but given that current radar trends which show more rainfall over North Florida right now than guidance would lead us to believe should be occurring, would be willing to ante up the rain chances across Central Florida namely after 6pm or so toward midnight some time. Regardless, it would be after or near dark south of I-4 along the East Side of the state and be over well before sunrise Friday.

Winds should remain a bit elevated tonight ahead of the boundary from the SW to W after 9pm or so, with a quick swing of winds from the NE-ENE by mid-afternoon Friday. Thus, not a big sig temperature change is expected with highs remaining in the low to mid 70F range, but not as warm as today, although some upper 60Fs could occur if clearing is delayed. Current temperatures as of 2pm were running in the upper 70Fs to a notch or two above 80F in some inland locations.

BEYOND: One if not two more boundaries in the offing in the next 10 days , but all in all it looks like a gradual warming trend will ensue by the end of the weekend as the next boundary approaches. Thus, temperatures it appears will continue to run above normal through the 13th of February.

VALENTINES DAY: So far, there is some consistency that the next front will be passing through the day before Valentine's Day with that day in particular to be running well below average temperature wise. This front now approaching appears to be the harbinger of a general pattern change trend of frontal passages and circulation systems, with even greater changes popping up in the 'super long range' (which in reality should hold little bearing as is proven to be the case time and time again).  It will be interesting to see if Greater Severe Weather potential will crop up by late Month OR if Colder Weather will return, since the GFS has shown both to be the case from time to time depending on what time one views the model. Although, so far it seems all things level out and we have yet to see either a colder pattern OR severe weather situation materialize despite what the long range on the model has shown during the past 2 weeks. 

Pleasantly "Cool" Through Monday, Long Range Warm Trend

State Temperatures Around 6:30AM  this morning. Note that the warmest readings are along A1A from the Cape and South through the Keys
(which is the 'normal' winter layout on drainage flow mornings with little wind) 

TODAY: Mostly sunny and on the slightly cool side, much like yesterday overall . High clouds over the Panhandle likely keeping morning lows warmer there than would otherwise be the case. Noting that Okeechobee not too long before sunrise was 37F degrees, a good 15F degrees cooler than Cocoa Beach well to the north.

The coolest air was near Ocala toward Inverness and Crystal River. Strongest wind was reported over the eastern most Barrier Islands of Brevard County (but possibly at other locations that do not report further south along the intracoastals) due to surrounding water and mixing of warmer air above those waters. Those winds will likely abate by mid-morning at the latest. Chance of a thin veil of cirrus clouds by noon time or so, which could easily go by unnoticed to the casual non-observant but make for a nice sunset.

SATURDAY: Similar conditions, although morning lows might be 'upped' a few locations. Light east wind near the beaches with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs.

SUNDAY: Another front will skirt by around midnight Saturday night, shifting winds back to the WNW to NW resulting in a Sunday morning temperature regime similar to this morning; yet, it appears Sunday afternoon will be the warmer of the next 3 days as air remains dry and 'heights' of the higher standard levels of the atmosphere used by meteorologists and model guidance begin to raise. As a result, the following fronts and associated low pressure systems will pass so far north of the state that the fronts will have a hard time reaching as far south as I-10.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Similarly very cool mornings like today, with warmest mornings also patterned out like as shown in the image above. Morning lows will quickly warm after sunrise all days though, especially on Tuesday when highs will get into the low-mid 70Fs (especially away from the beaches Central and North Florida).

BEYOND: The GFS Model trend has been calling for light SE Winds and morning lows at the beaches in the low-mid 60Fs by Wednesday next week and beyond, with interior areas warming into the 50Fs ranges. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70F for many days, at least a week and remaining dry. The same model also shows (though) some increased moisture and rains, perhaps by a greatly weakened front trying to come in 'the back door' at some point in time, but given how far out in time that is will disregard for now. And, if even so, that front has little to no effect on temperatures.

Otherwise, that model has been fairly consistent that no big fronts or any for that matter beyond the one this Saturday Overnight until mid-February. We will, by then, be approaching the time that any long lasting truly 'cold' days falling consecutively one after the other grows ever increasingly less likely as well. May be looking at a frontal boundary falling stationary 'somewhere' across the state with much better rain chances  but that seems a bit unusual for February at any time in the month which has been

Warm One Last Day, The A "Week of Cool Returns"

Full "Latitudinal" Length Cold Front Continues to Sweep Across the United States this morning positioned along or near the Mississippi River. High pressure is building eastward from Texas but also from the Northern Rockies behind that boundary. Florida will mostly be effected by the circulation from Texas, and not so much from the "Far North"

TODAY: As mentioned in previous blogger posts, a long awaited frontal boundary who's timing was questionable is approaching Florida. Guidance has narrowed it down to around a 4 AM Central Florida Dividing Line time frame (pictured above), per the GFS which was correct all along  despite what the ECMWF and NAM guidance depicted. Prior to Frontal Passage (fropa), SSW-W winds today and highs right along A1A near 80F or upper 70Fs and warmer inland. Orlando tied a record high of 85F degrees yesterday dating as far back as 1917  for informational purposes, but not foreseeing (so far) much warmer if even that warm today. Suspect that the more southerly wind component will keep the outer barrier islands especially a tad cooler than was previously thought had the winds been more westerly and directly off land in that area.

Otherwise, very little if any rain is expected with the boundary; rain chances enter Central Florida around 2AM in more Northern areas and clear Exact Central by sunrise shifting south with time.
Clearing behind the boundary 'might' be a little slow from South Central to South Florida on Thursday  but from around Central Brevard toward Sarasota Line and north better clearing to scattered clouds working toward 'clear' could be experienced by noon time (if not a bit sooner). The next concern is 'how cold' will it get?

Expected frontal Position by Thursday night. NOTE that high pressure behind the boundary will be building across the Gulf RATHER THAN down from the north. This will prevent Florida from experiencing truly cold temperatures once again, since the air mass circulating into the state will be more of a 'modified continental air mass' rather than a 'direct shot from the North Pole" (as can occur some years)

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Expect daytime highs on Thursday not to rise much above the temperature right after 'fropa',  toward the lower to mid 60Fs Central and north. Overnight lows Thursday night into the 40Fs range, maybe some upper 30Fs far NW Central near Ocala, with the warmest from Canaveral and South along A1A seeing 47-53F range.

BEYOND: Two more fronts are expected to skirt by the state with re-enforcing high pressure from the west to west northwest. The next front can already be seen in the image above. We will not even know it when those fronts go by. The only effect will be that they will keep the winds backed to the NNW-N (thus, no modifying ocean wind) for quite some time. Another front is expected to follow due course early Sunday ..with similar results.

In abbreviated form, it could be 'typically cool' through next Wednesday, with coldest mornings just west of or partly into the Barrier Islands toward SW Florida into the Punta Gorda area. Other than today and tonight (when it could remain quite breezy)  after Thursday, winds will be a non-issue for the most part during this entire time frame, and high clouds are not seen so far to be a big issue either. Sum total, cool with some very pleasant days ahead but quite dry, especially north interior sections. No rain is foreseen as well until at least around mid-February. Overall, things look pretty much 'normal' for this time of year with highs in the 60Fs into brief shots of low 70Fs and lows generally in the 40Fs except at the beaches from Canaveral and South through the Keys, and by beaches this means A1A and east toward South Florida where US1 acts as a good substitute. For example, official observation stations at Ft Pierce and Vero often come in cooler to much cooler than Patrick Air Force Base further north since those observation stations are further from the beaches. For blogger purposes, Inland is considered 1/2- 1 mile or more west of the immediate sand dunes as opposed to TV Stations which might considered the beaches anywhere east of I-95.

Warm Through Wednesday, Near Record Highs Possible

Mid Level moisture rotating around high pressure to the east of Florida could manifest as off and on clouds Central and North Florida throughout the day. Onshore wind at the east coast will keep temperatures within 1 mile of the beach a bit cooler

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much really to say for the next three days as high pressure slowly weakens with time as a frontal boundary taking shape over the Central Plains states will progress eastward with time. Easterly winds becoming progressively more southerly with some mid level moisture in place will allow temperatures to enter the lower 80Fs each day , mainly just away from the beaches. Overnight lows right at the beaches likely not to fall below 68F degrees from Port Canaveral and South, if not below even 70F.

Wednesday we could see some record highs as winds become more SSW-SW as front noses in from the west to WNW. Mid level moisture might also be carried off to the NE of the state. Timing on the front is still a bit sketchy, with entrance into Central Florida anywhere from near midnight Wednesday night to Thursday around late morning, thus timing will mean everything for Thursday's weather.

THURSDAY: Either way, we could see some showers after midnight Wednesday night into the sunrise period Thursday as clouds clear from north to south. If the NAM and the ECMWF model come closer to reality, clearing will be delayed Thursday into late day (at least). If the GFS verifies, clearing will reach Dead Central around late morning to noon time, but south of there will take until after dark Thursday evening.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY: The more certain outlook is for a return to cooler temperatures. As has been the case this winter (and most others), the warmest overnight lows will run from Cape Canaveral south along A1A toward US1 in South Florida and through the Keys each morning, so far perhaps not falling below 53F, whereas inland and toward the west and southwest Florida temperatures would vary through the 40Fs ranges. More notable will be cooler afternoon highs. The GFS is backing off now on how cool those highs will be, from cooler now to warmer. Predominately though, highs in the mid-upper 60Fs most locales except warmer south Florida. We could see a few days of only lower 60Fs though from Dead Central and north, especially on Friday. There is now forecast to be 2 more fronts after this upcoming front 2-3 days apart which would act to reinforce the air mass in place post-Wednesday. All in all though, temperatures running around normal to a few degrees above normal might be in the cards. Only rain chances so far appears to be Wednesday night through early to Mid Day Thursday depending on which model verifies. In short, no big weather disturbances to cause severe weather or very cold weather is foreseen.

2 More Fronts then Consistently Warmer Next Week

Progressive Pattern with fronts forming near the Lee of the Northern Rockies and moving across the lower Great Lakes and Exiting off shore the Mid Atlantic to Northeast States . These will affect Florida with no sig weather anticipated but varying sky conditions and temperatures bobbing up and down within tolerable ('average') variability  

TODAY: Sunny and cool with quite the dry air mass over head. High pressure is situated in general as noted above in the image. A front is skirting by which will morph the high pressure area and shift winds a bit from day to day, but overall today and Thursday look similar, although a bit warmer on Thursday with highs today in the mid-upper 60Fs and mid to lower 40Fs tonight away from the beaches where they will be closer to 50-54F (warmer south).

FRIDAY: There will actually be two fronts to shimmy by, the next one is already showing up and a third is to follow which is not even in that image yet. All the fronts follow the same general track, with the impacts to Florida being a more westerly component to the winds just prior to the fronts, but quickly swinging to NE behind them.

 Cloudy conditions look to be in the cards from a variety of heights depending on which model one prefers, but it appears it could be the later half of Saturday (north half of sate) that could get cloudy, OR maybe Friday. But either way, rain chances on any day are very slim, but not impossible. Otherwise, we will some days with highs in the lower 70Fs statewide especially on Friday despite any clouds that might be present. All in all, half the weekend looks like it could be pretty nice except potential for cloud coverage this weekend but really to soon to say with great certainty since that has been changing from model run to model run.

NEXT WEEK: So far, the first several days of next week are looking very nice with consistent 70F degree readings in store, southerly winds, and warmer overnight lows. In all in all, up and down sky conditions through Sunday with varying morning lows most notable at the beaches dependent on if they morning wind is from the west (cooler) or east (warmer). It starts to get sticky in the forecast heading into the Thursday/Friday time frame though of next week, more than one week from today, so will leave that time frame open given guidance begins to flap around from run to run that far out in time like a towel to the wind.

Dank Hanky Panky ;- ( at the Beaches, Warmer Elsewhere

Image for this afternoon shows that high pressure at the lower levels is building Southeastward from the Northern Plains as noted in yesterday post. The net affect will be to increase NE winds into the coast. Ocean temperatures off of Daytona are around 62F whereas near the Port of Canaveral they are 68F. 

TODAY: Slight increase in NE winds today could greatly alter the weather conditions from mainly the Eau Gallie Causeway and north, especially within 1 mile of the immediate coastline when/where winds will be blowing in off very cool ocean waters under a mostly veiled sky cut off from the afternoon sunshine.

This is not an unusual winter time (especially late winter) scenario.  Given the length of the season we are now into, the oceans are cooler. That coupled with abundant high clouds and possibly some lower clouds will hold down outside air temperatures, especially at the beaches. Further south, the wind will be progressively be blowing off warmer water. Looks like a classic 'cold air wedge' effect that has an affinity to wedge in on the Port Canaveral area toward the 520 and not so much toward Patrick Air Force Base.

Further south and inland temperatures will be warmer the further south one goes, but also those locations will not be privy to the direct effect of wind blowing off colder ocean waters. These conditions, coupled with lack of significant low level drying, could produce rather danky hanky panky. (I would have posted a hanky panky image , but...well, you know...) ...so we'll settle with some 'weather nasty' instead. "brrrr for the beaches"

TONIGHT/NEXT FEW NIGHTS: A variation of the same theme for a few days (through Thursday) as wind decreases. There is a flip side to the story. Overnight lows will be colder inland, possibly falling into the mid-40Fs heading into Wednesday and Thursday nights, while the continued onshore gradient wind will keep the temperatures right along A1A in Brevard from barely falling after dark. Cooler further north though closer to high pressure that will be crossing eastward toward the Atlantic.

BEYOND: New scenario unfolds from Friday and beyond with highs well into the 70Fs and SW to west winds at times. Although another cool spell is in the cards, it is fairly short lived, and then followed by above average temperatures heading into late January and early February. Granted, that is still too far off to say with absolute assurance, that seems to be the going trend though.

Partly to Mostly Clowny, Mixed Sun, Light Winds Continue

Lot's of Bozos and some Ronalds Today with a chance of Ringlings

The Reason for posting this image (reflective via the GFS (Global Forecast System) Model for today, is that this appears will be in  very general synoptic scale surface pattern terms, the trend through late this month. That is to say, high pressure centers continually building SE ward from the Upper Rockies with dynamics with frontal boundaries passing to the north of the state

TODAY: Light winds today and mostly cloudy to sometimes partly cloudy. A mix of sun and clouds, with clearing some areas while others not so much. It really is nearly impossible to say where and who will experience what. In general though, temperatures not far off from yesterday but with less wind this afternoon. Likewise, highs today in the low to mid 70Fs depending on cloud extent with a few light showers and sprinkles mainly south of I-4 are always possible. Lows tonight similar to last night.

TUESDAY: With winds already hedging on northerly, any frontal boundary to skirt on through will only re-enforce what is already in place and increase momentarily a rain chance. Some guidance is calling for showers on Friday or Saturday but that too could end up being a period of increased cloud coverage, and it is possible that even if it does rain it might be over-night. GFS has shifted gears pretty radically the past 48 hours in this regard. The main thing we'd probably all like to know is how much sun, how much wind, and how cold (or warm). 

WEDNESDAY: This seems to be the day going into Thursday where cloud coverage will be least extensive with temperatures cooler but not cold except away from the beaches earlier in the first half of the morning hours. Otherwise, highs in the mid to upper 60Fs for the most part and lows in the 40Fs Wednesday and Thursday. Latest guidance is showing that from Canaveral and South close to the beach we will not see one day getting below 50F degrees through the end of the month. That can be used at this point as a measuring stick for what to expect. In regard to clouds, if it is not lower clouds it's higher clouds. The periods of NO CLOUDS are few and far between but undoubtedly we will see them if but for 1/2 to most of a day here or there.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: A more definitive frontal boundary will be gliding by with more significant drying of the atmosphere, but that too is short lived with the greatest 'cold air impacts' restricted to west of the Banana or Indian Rivers. Drier air associated with that upcoming front last perhaps 36 hours before return on shore flow reverts conditions back to status quo.

In Summary: Although there are some changes in store, there is nothing significant in the upcoming week in regard to big rains or cold temperatures outside of what we've been experiencing the past 10 days. The trend continues until around the last 2 or 3 days of the month which is well beyond model reliability anyway. One could say, the point in making a blog post today is that there is no point in writing one when push comes to shove, other than to note that no big cold blasts or heavy storms are foreseen for quite some time in the current pattern (s) on tap. 

Breezy Cool Showery Clouds Trickle In

Low topped clouds could thicken most (in general) after 5 or 6PM as sun angle lessens to result in potential small rain amounts east central from near dark and over night into early Saturday mainly from the Cape and south

TODAY: No surprises really. Winds to become more NE-ENE into tonight and lessen after sunset. As I type the breeze-gusts are just kicking in a notch. If so, that could be the harbinger of sprinkles and showers yet to fully manifest. More on that issue further down.

Deeper mid level moisture up to 5000 ft awaits with sprinkles and light showers possible as shown most any time as has already been witnessed and observed via official observations 'on the hour'. The immediate east coast is the warmest area in general likely in accounting for wind coming off of 68F degree ocean temperatures or slightly more. Thusly, the temperatures around the state are most warm near Canaveral and south despite the greater cloud coverage. Winds to slowly decrease going into Saturday night.  

TONIGHT: Consistency says, "Not much of a temperature change post - sunset immediately (as in A1A and east immediately) close to the beaches with lows never really lowering at all."  Thank you, Mr. Consistency. 

It might even warm a little over night from Ft. Pierce and south, but further north will have to wait until Saturday night into Sunday morning for that to occur. Best chance of showers from Canaveral or Mims and South, spreading toward some interior locations mainly Central Florida and parts of South Florida after dark through sunrise or mid morning Saturday, which shifts south with time.

SUNDAY: Shower chances reduced but a sprinkle is still possible near Canaveral with the better chances further south toward Ft Pierce to West Palm Beach. Highs upper 60Fs again , warmer from Ft. Pierce and south in to the lower 70Fs.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Lower winds yet still as a weak coastal inverted trough sets up as far north as the usual, Cape Canaveral. As such, this manifests as warming temperatures northward over night toward the Arm Pit of the Cape at the Port, possibly so that by sunrise morning beach side strollers will awaken to 70F degrees with clouds continuing to be somewhat of nuisance. 

MONDAY: Generally  'modes't weather but mid-cloud decks continue to skewer the skies per guidance at least per model depictions viz the mid-level moisture depictions.

TUESDAY: Guidance continues to point toward a refreshment of drier (and colder) air from the NW as high pressure builds eastward across the northern gulf and the Deep South States. Skies clearing finally by Wednesday or maybe even later Tuesday, but also comes the cooler air.  Unfortunately, guidance is also clinging to the bane of the times with Southern Branch Jet stream cirrus and cirrostratus clouds sweeping in at some point on Wednesday post dry air at the low levels intrusion, so if it's not lower clouds, it's higher ones being the gist of the matter. That, combined with cooler highs in the mid-upper 60Fs (possibly lower 70Fs further south).

Modifying conditions with higher clouds being an issue possible until late next week with a big warm up preceding the next frontal boundary, at which point we could get a repeat performance of recent times..that is, today. All in all though, unusually cold air is not nowhere, nohow to be seen, so far.  Possible big but brief weather event is showing up around the last 2 days of the month such as a possible squall line, but too soon to say at this point.

"End Times" Front Crosses Florida - Prepare Now, or Else!

It's the End of the Awesome Weather Across
Florida As We Knew it as of
NOW!!!

TODAY: Clouds have entered the grisly scene as a frontal boundary marches  troops of clouds and weapons of wind, sprinkles : armed with intrepidly cold air : sweeps the landscape (as noted in the aerial battle plan below) (note, top image  is the impact near Pensacola, which can be seen from aloft in this image blow)

TONIGHT: Winds becoming W-WNW-NW at 15-28mph with some higher gusts earlier in the evening,  with the biggest temperature drop between 4pm -8pm. The immediate coast from near Cape Canaveral south could be close to 50F (or fall about 25-30F degrees since early this afternoon by that time). Colder of course further north and warmer south.  It will remain cloudy well 
in to the night.

2:30pm Front Position

FRIDAY: Cold in comparison to recent days, but like all "End of The World" Fronts this one too will prove to appear with a Boy Who Cried Wolf Bark worse than its chilly bite.  Morning lows near 48F on the A1A strip plus or minus 2-3F degrees from Port Canaveral and South but much colder north and especially across interior portions of North Central where they could drop into the upper 30Fs, with continued breezy conditions.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: So far, timing is almost perfect for winds to circulate around to the NE in sync with the sun having been up after about 4-5 hours of 'heating' above the cloud decks to manifest a deck of offshore moving stratocumulus clouds with light sprinkles possible along the coast of East Central east of I-95. The good thing about this is that beach side temperatures will rise toward the lower to mid-60Fs at that time as well, but inland temperatures could remain a bit cooler. Winds will begin to die down, especially after sunset toward midnight Friday evening.

BEYOND: Not much to say for the weekend. Overnight beach side A1A will see lows near 62F-65F all weekend with the shower sprinkle chances ending as winds become much lighter. Highs in the lower 70Fs possible by Sunday (mainly South and parts of South Central). The only proverbial flies in the 'anointment' will be the chance of Southern Branch Jet Stream Cirrus Clouds streaming overhead a majority of the time into early to mid range next week.  

In short, a return to near to normal seasonal temperatures, with clouds being the core issue in the afternoons through Tuesday or Wednesday at least.

Beautiful Today - Much Cooler Friday/Early Next Week

Today through Thursday Sunset As The Cold Intruder Crosses the State to the Straits

TODAY

THURSDAY: Cold front will be crossing the state, passing through Central between 4 -6pm and continuing toward the Straits before midnight. NW wind of 18-24mph for a time behind the boundary and much cooler to cold with Central's lows in the upper 30Fs to lower-mid 40Fs; 50Fs far South Florida. There is a chance of increasing cloud cover state wide from late morning southward into mid afternoon and very light rainfall could occur from this cloud cover, but highs could still get into the mid-upper 70Fs south of I-4 prior to frontal passage. 

FRIDAY: Cold in the morning as noted, with modifying conditions first along the east coast. Winds becoming north to north-northeast by early afternoon with increasing lower stratocumulus clouds advecting back on shore as they become NNE-NE and thicken a bit.  

The mid-level trough lags well behind the surface front, and could act as a catalyst for light, low topped spits or sprinkles, especially east of I-95 or US1 with clouds working west of I-95 by mid-late afternoon Friday as it stretches out across Central or South Central, especially near the east coast. Highs in the lower mid 60Fs, especially near the coast toward sunset as winds become more ENE off the warmer (if one could say 'warm' , waters of the Atlantic)

SATURDAY: Little if any temperature drop from the Cape and South close to the ocean over night Friday night with clouds potentially remaining; high clouds could be in the cards as well associated with the jet stream. Highs in the mid to upper 60Fs (especially South Central/South with a few low 70Fs ). Rain drip chances dwindling from the Cape to the South, but SE Florida may see another day of them.

SUNDAY: Recovering to some degree with near 70Fs from the Central Dividing line and South. Lows Sunday morning in the low - mid 60Fs east of US1 to A1A but much cooler further inland toward the west side of the state. Highs near 70F.

MONDAY: Similar to Sunday, as yet another mid-level boundary and surface reflection back the wind to NW-NNW and bring in more cold air TUESDAY through THURSDAY morning.

High clouds could be in the picture as well at least the first 3-4 days of next week, so not expecting to see much in temperatures above the upper 60Fs, rain free.

Continued "Warm" Through Thursday -Then Closer to "Normal"

Other than some pesky early day low clouds and a few patches of offshore clouds / light showers moving toward the coast as noted above, today looks like a repeat performance of Monday (So too on Wednesday)

TODAY: Morning KSC sounding shows a strong cap around 5000 feet again today with moisture at or below that level above which the atmosphere is primarily dry. Thus, satellite imagery correspondingly shows little in high clouds but rather the patches of stratocumulus clouds and a few showers locked below that capping inversion level.  If today is anything like yesterday, most areas north of the Indian River County line should dry out  but further south a few locations could see more clouds outside of low topped cumulus clouds in land away from the subsidence of cool area associated with the east coast sea breeze.

Highs today near the immediate beaches just below 80F and in the low 80Fs inland of the waterways (by not far) especially in areas that are most free of cloud coverage.

A Rare Mid-January Cape Canaveral Beach  Splish Splash  on Monday

WEDNESDAY: Outside of the chance of a similar of sorts scenario materializing over the course of the next 24 hours, little change in store .

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary associated with the huge jet stream streak and trough that has plagued the Western states north of it with cold air will be moving across the Mississippi River Valley region with the tail end of the jet streak preparing to pull out toward the east coast north of Florida as a cold front works into Central Florida after sunset. 

SW wind ahead of the front and a bit warmer, although some afternoon clouds and a few light showers are possible, especially along and north of I-4. With frontal passage sometime after 7pm south of I-4 after dark cold upon which air advection commences and the Party of Above Normal Temperatures  ends for quite some time to come.

FRIDAY: This day appears will be the over all coolest day in the next week for Central and South Florida. Low pressure (although weak) is anticipated to form along the boundary close to Cape Canaveral or just off shore with any wrap around moisture impacting mostly the area north of SR 46 in far North Brevard potentially generating showers and greater cloud coverage toward the east side of the state into Volusia County and mainly North Brevard. Elsewhere  it appears conditions could be partly cloudy to even clear as winds come onshore late Friday into early Saturday post sunset. Thus, coastal temperatures could be warmer near the beaches Saturday morning than on Friday morning.

BEYOND: A few more weak fronts could be sliding through in the next 7-10 days which will act to mainly exasperate a steady state of temperatures in the low to mid 40Fs inland and low to mid-50s right at the beaches south of I-4 or even SR 528. The further south one progresses  the warmer it becomes. Highs most days generally in the mid to upper 60Fs for quite some time. The overall picture seems that overnight lows will be a tad above normal (in general), but after noon highs a bit below with periods of high clouds becoming more likely. No freezing temperatures are foreseen except perhaps more toward I-10 toward Gainesville on a few occasions. 

 Oh Christmas Trees We Bid Farewell

 

Temperatures to Continue Above Normal Through Wednesday

Sunrise at Cape Canaveral, Florida in January (70F Degrees at time)

TODAY: Not much of a change locally within our current local and large-scale (synoptic) pattern. Closer investigation of model guidance, latest hourly surface observations,  and the KSC morning sounding at 6AM shows a low level high pressure centered well to the east of the state with the ridge axis  stretching westward across Central Florida. In the mid-levels the high pressure center (aloft) is only about 100-200 miles east of the state. This set up is making for ESE winds (light) at the lowest atmospheric level, then veering more from the south at about 5000 through 18,000 ft above those low level winds. 

Also shown is two inversions with each ridge axis. One caps off a very shallow deck of only about 200-400ft  above the ground making for fog (some fairly dense) nearest the ridge axis (Central Florida); the latter inversion is associated with the mid level ridge axis around 4700 ft. Above that level it is quite dry. Very little change in this particular set up is foreseen through Tuesday.

THUS: Some fog this morning, with rapid clearing by 8AM- 10AM. Highs similar to yesterday . There is a chance of patches of stratocumulus cloud decks appearing and disappearing in random fashion along that 5100 ft inversion located underneath the mid-level ridge axis near 11,000 ft from moisture trapped below either of those levels, especially after the fog burns off and re-materializes as a cloud deck aloft.  Otherwise, temperatures continuing to run about 7 - 14   degrees above normal with warmest overnight lows along the outer barrier islands, being surrounded by bodies of water on all sides.

The only change to occur into Wednesday will be cooler morning lows, especially along the East side of the state as low level winds begin to acquire a Southwest component (particularly Monday - Wednesday mornings); likewise, this will allow afternoon highs to become warmer in those same locations with less chance of a sea breeze (especially Tuesday and Wednesday) outside of any cloud patches that could develop.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Around the 17th now as when a front that continuously is being re-enforced but blocked from Florida because of the high pressure centers east of the state will finally begin to slide south. Guidance is split on whether that will occur on Wednesday night or a few days later. Most offices (official forecast offices) are siding with the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame, but will hold back in this post from being sold just yet (as they have also alluded to). The GFS has been doing pretty good this winter in the 6-10 day time frame. Either way though, not much precipitation if any is anticipated with the front as most of the energy associated with it will have ejected into the Northeast States before the front gets here. 

Since the Jet Stream remains north of I-10, the boundary will again like those of recent fronts be shallow. North winds though could advect cooler air in with mid-upper 50Fs for lows and highs in the 60Fs (Central and warmer South) for several days under high level cirrus clouds.

Hibiscus Petaled in Morning Dew

BEYOND THE BEYOND: As has been the GFS trend, heading out into untrustworthy territory time, the greater beyond shows a cold spell approaching toward the 22nd; however, the GFS bounces back and forth and all around with this scenario and has been doing so all winter in the long range (case in point, a few weeks ago it was forecasting it to be quite cold around the 18th with highs in the 40Fs and 50Fs).