Rains Possible Tonight Through Sunday (w/Some Thunder Possible)

Radar at 5PM - Area South of Yellow Line is for mostly Sunday (additional rain chances possibly all day)

NOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Area of mostly light to moderate rain is encroaching on the west coast while convergence near the east coast is setting off some convective low topped type showers late this afternoon from West Palm Beach and north to the Cape area. Though these showers might end after night fall, the main area of interest will still be on the approach.

Latest guidance shows increasing bulk shear and much higher helicity values in the 0-3KM layer near Tampa Bay and south spreading east overnight. A focus for 'elevated thunder' in the presence of cold air aloft along the old frontal boundary now running from near Mims toward South Tampa Bay could act as a catalyst for storms especially as upper level winds increase after midnight through Sunday morning (see between red lines below). Over-running wind profiles just north of this boundary could also set up a cause for some larger rainfall totals further north toward I-4, but no two models agree wholeheartedly (thus, only potential) on any of the aforementioned scenarios, with the better bet being rainfall (possibly briefly heavy at times).

SUNDAY:The ECMWF model seems to coming out the winner on the overall set up regarding rain chance duration as the latest NAM has been running along side it per other discussions being read. If so, that means rain chances could continue south of I-4 all through Sunday with a better chance of thunder South Central mainly, with some pretty strong vertical velocities showing up near and north of Lake Okeechobee in the afternoon to early evening hours. Low pressure off shore Brevard could give cause for some wrap around rain chances well into Sunday into Sunday night as well.

MONDAY: Any rain chances to remain will be almost all east of I-95 and will end by mid-morning at latest if not much sooner.

BEYOND: Cooler mornings with NNE winds, with overnight lows in the mid 50Fs in the interior and west but much closer to 67-72F along the east coast from Brevard County and south through the keys. Afternoons in the mid-upper 70Fs warming to the lower and some isolated mid 80Fs (away from the immediate coast) by Tuesday through Thursday as sky conditions will be much improved all areas by the time Monday ends.

Continued Chance of "Stormy Weather" Late Saturday Through Midnight

"Cold Front" location at 1PM as noted by Lower Dew Point Air, Front to Continue South through Tonight

TODAY-TONIGHT: Short post since little has changed since yesterday's post. The frontal boundary that was to cross Central around sunrise was several hours behind the previous forecasts   and is only now crossing central a good 6 hours later than thought. 

This boundary will end up across the keys or just south of there in a greatly diminished fashion with a secondary boundary to remain near to  south of The Lake Region into tomorrow. Not much change in temperatures for the immediate east coast but the interior and western side of the state will be cooler tomorrow morning mostly because of the drier air mass which allows overnight lows to fall more generously in the absence of the warmth holding higher dew point air.

SATURDAY: Using a blend of the NAM (North American Model) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) models as there is a bit of surprising consistency between the two as of this morning's model runs. 

Both show a slightly sooner arrival of 'stormier potential' weather from around near sunset on the west coast near Tampa Bay southward toward perhaps the Punta Gorda area as a series of 'vorticity lobes' (upper atmospheric level energy impulses at and above 2000 - 20,000 ft)  in waves across the state.  

There are implications of a weak surface low forming over East Central Florida at the same time a more discernible weak circulation is still off the SW Coast for Florida to move toward the ENE toward Central/South Central Florida as well. 

Otherwise, upper level energy will also cross all of North Central Florida as well. Most of Saturday will be dry however, until late day, UNLESS storms can manage to spring up late day near the east or west coast which the NAM is hinting at. Any thing to spring up might be worth watching, though the upper levels winds and strong mid-level shear and colder air aloft is not set to arrive until after dark and be overhead until at least after 9 p.m.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Better chance of locally heavy but brief rainfalls with gusty winds to sub severe and possibly some near severe hail (?!) ?  Questions abound , but mid level circulations are possible, just not down to the level below about 4000 ft. Still, such conditions could give rise to storms with out much cloud to ground lightning but strong gusty winds . Most activity of strong category is being shown to exit the east coast after 1:AM Sunday morning except possibly along the east coast from near Vero to West Palm or further south until around 5:AM or so.

SUNDAY: Slow clearing if at all South and South Central Florida with a remaining chance of rains until at least noon time some locations, with the Far North parts being in the clear as far as rain goes. Strong activity though will be long gone most everywhere by late morning.

BEYOND: This weather even will not be leaving cold air behind really much at all. Warm temperatures for the south half of the state toward the lower to mid 80Fs (interiors) by Tuesday afternoon .  

We will likely be hearing words of 'The Polar Vortex" over the news lines soon since those 'words' won't be going away anytime in the future since being brought to the fore front last year ; blog posts here sometimes mentioned the James Bay Low instead.

Strong/Marginally "Severe" Storms Overnight Saturday toward Noon Sunday?

SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING: 11 - 6 -2014

TODAY: Cold front approaching Florida to slide through Central Florida around sunrise Friday morning and to proceed South to the Florida Straits. This is a very shallow boundary and other than some mostly cloudy skies with the front, little active weather is anticipated, yea nary a rain-shower if even.  An upper level low meanwhile is winding up as shown below toward N. Mexico / SW TX which will open up and proceed eastward in the next 48-72 hours as an upper level trough and instigate weak cyclogenesis east of Brownsville , Tx. The front over Florida will lift back north toward Central (as it stands now) during the day on Saturday to just south of I-4 or perhaps not even as far north as a Tampa bay to Canaveral line by nightfall or even after dark. Position of that boundary will be critical in regard to rainfall, and if possible even some 'marginal' (dare we say) severe weather.

Rainfall over Florida mainly beginning afternoon along the West Coast in various places spreading eastward mostly overnight. There might be TWO shots of active weather somewhere across Central or North Central Florida, if not even south Florida. Just too far out in time to say for certain.

FRIDAY: Clearing skies from North to South early morning toward noon time but more clouds it appears will be across South Florida as the mid-level trough never clears that area. Northerly wind behind the front with highs it appears in the mid-upper 70Fs, otherwise pleasant on Friday North half of state by early afternoon if not sooner.

SATURDAY: By this day we'll have a better handle on what if anything transpires across the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance has been showing several vorticity (energy) lobes at various levels of the atmosphere over time to cross Florida from Late Afternoon and into the over night hours. Usually, guidance is not very accurate in regards to these perturbations, esp. this far out in time; hence the post is Very Preliminary; note that no official outlets are calling for any 'severe weather' as of this time.

SUNDAY: Latest Guidance has slowed the oncoming 'set up' a bit, which was previously forecast to occur and clear the area prior to sunrise Sunday, but now the GFS has a second upper disturbance which could affect parts of Central and/or South Central into the early afternoon on this day with more rainfall. Much could occur especially across the Loop Current over the Eastern Gulf so it does bear some watching.  GFS shows plenty of Bulk Shear sometimes down to the 2000 ft level and much more so aloft in the presence of divergence aloft with the jet stream. Very  cold air in the 5000-10,000ft layer by Florida standards could set off some surprises (storms) as the newer model run shows as later as later morning toward Noon time toward the east coast, but in what way is hard to say though 'hail' is always a possibility if , and only IF some true storms can get going..esp. in the presence of so much directional and speed shear. Right now it does not seem out of the question for elevated rotation in storms to manifest but again, it's still way to early to make the leap with any degree of confidence for continuity's sake.

BEYOND : Front to clear by later Sunday as it is now but updates will be necessary.  For now, expect your fav TV weathercaster to shift his or her tune several times between today and early to mid day Saturday though as models change around.

Northerly winds to NNE wind will make for very cool inland to west coast mornings, but at this rate the immediate east coast appears will again escape the worst of the cold air, with as much as a 15 degrees temperature difference from west to east across the state at sunrise hours through at least Tuesday/Wednesday mornings with afternoons in the 70Fs.  Another big front is being forecast by the weather headlines to impact the eastern 3/4 of the U.S. later next week, and much banter is being bounced around about that next system currently taking shape in the Gulf of Alaska. Time will tell just how low we can go, but Florida so far is being etched in as escaping the worst of the entire mess. Fingers crossed.

Wind Chills Saturday Night with near Record High Minimums During the Day?

CURRENT DEW POINTS SHOWS WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRY AIR IS LOCATED

TODAY: Frontal boundary located across Central Florida pressing slowly south during the late morning to mid afternoon with much drier air and hence clearing skies in it's wake as the day wears on. 

There is sufficient low to mid level moisture though for some clouds once the sun gets working on the atmosphere, so not expecting an entirely CLEAR day but for perhaps later in the day. Temperatures to hover mainly in the mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F especially South Central/South.

Halloween Cat Scratch Fever

HALLOWEEN NIGHT: Cool and clearing with temperatures lowering from low 70Fs into the lower to mid 60Fs by around 10pm. Otherwise, very pleasant.

It is the next front that is the 'hum-dinger of Daddy Fronts' to come across Florida early Saturday that is going to have something to say though.

SATURDAY: After morning lows occur mainly in the mid 50Fs Saturday morning with lower 60Fs limited to the immediate beachside residents, the next front will glide invisibly across with increasing winds on its heals. Strong low pressure will be forming just off the coast of the Carolina s with a strong anomalous mid-level jet aloft of 110 Kts across North Florida and 10,000 foot level winds across Central Florida of 70 + kts as high pressure dives south through the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin. 

This is an extremely unusual set up any time of year  esp. this time of year. With 2000 foot level winds showing to be around the 35 kts mark, with heating of the day atop strong cold air advection, wouldn't be surprised if we might see some winds gusts near 40 -42mph on Saturday afternoon, but more likely in the 25-38mph range.  

The next factor will be to mix the temperatures in. Afternoon highs as noted the other day might not crack 60F parts of North Central Florida. 60Fs looks for Central parts of Central and south to South Florida..but where to draw the line of 60F and below has been wobbling north/south somewhere across Central. Either way, it's going to be very dry, very windy, and unusually cool for what we've been used to. Not a good day for boating by any means.

SUNDAY: Wind chills overnight?! Last NAM is coming in showing upper 30Fs to just inland of Vero Beach and across almost all of the west side of Orlando toward Ocala, whereas the GFS implies closer to low 40Fs along the 27 Corridor and mid-40Fs elsewhere. 

There could be a huge temperature gradient (difference in temperature) between the IMMEDIATE BEACH side east of A1A Sunday morning from anywhere to the west toward US1 and then I95. West of I95 is guaranteed 40Fs and near US1 looks close to upper 40Fs, with the sand shores east of A1A from the Cape South   perhaps in the lower 50Fs, with a continued breeze but decreasing just a bit and shifting to NNE.

Noting that most of the U.S. along and east of The Mississippi River will be in the 30Fs Sunday morning save parts of Florida and the eastern parts of the Carolinas likely because there will be some cloud cover and perhaps precipitation.

Sunday to 'warm' to the mid to 'maybe' upper 60Fs many areas by near noon to late morning though and thus endeth the cold spell for the beaches from the Cape and south. Overnight lows continue toward upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs as winds might decouple a bit after dark inland, but remain just strong enough to actually never fall much after dark at the beach near the A1A strip mainly.

MONDAY - BEYOND: Beaches to wake up to mid-upper 60Fs but remaining cooler well inland with highs in the mid 70Fs and from there on out the beaches will be in the 70Fs 24/7 through the end of the week. Deeper easterly winds with time could advect and dense low level cloud deck across the east coast and into the interior Tuesday through Friday with some sprinkles perhaps possible at the immediate beaches region mainly with probably no measurable totals if any falls at all. 

Cloud cover if it does manifest though as it looks like it could might actually hold afternoon high temperatures down, but then again, keep over night lows warm (hence in part, round the clocks 70Fs).

DST Ends As Very Cool Air Breezily Ushers October Out

LATE OCTOBER MORNING 2013

TODAY: Another sunny day with light wind with temperatures similar to yesterday as a cold front moves toward the panhandle.

THURSDAY: Cold front to press down the state slowly during the day, somewhat dragging its heals across north Central to Central. That is the region most likely to receive any rainfall, with perhaps some 'elevated' thunder aloft (mainly near the west coast) with temperatures aloft being cold and some speed shear involved to manifest a lifting mechanism in the absence of much low level instability, likely due in part to increasing cloud coverage. (see graphic below).

Wind might actually become a bit northerly even before the front passes through. Rains could work into Central Florida during the mid afternoon to early evening mostly affecting the immediate east coast north of Vero Beach going into mid evening as the deeper moisture band wears thin going toward South Florida where little to no rain is expected. Could get quite windy in and near rain showers even if there is no thunder or lightning involved in the mix.

FRIDAY: Increasing NW winds as another surge of dry air will move in toward Sunset Halloween night. Temperatures will begin to fall more notably during the course of the mid evening and overnight through the 60Fs and into the upper 50Fs.

SATURDAY: Overall coolest to almost 'cold' compared to how things have been since early April with highs perhaps never breaking 60F along and north of a line from Central Volusia County west toward Brooksville. Further south  temperatures in the lower 60Fs with perhaps an hour or two toward the mid 60Fs (at best as it appears now).  Lows in the lower 50Fs much of the state though much colder North Florida where a range of 40Fs anticipated, and perhaps mid-50Fs along the intracoastal.  This weekend does not look at all 'ideal' for boating or activities along open water ways.

With sunset anticipate temperatures to fall much more quickly with drier air in place but with winds elevated especially along the coast mixing should keep the temperatures up a notch, though the windy conditions won't help much when it comes to 'comforting'.  Winds could be blowing in the 20 plus mph range on Saturday. This day will be well out of the norm from what we've been used to for quite some time.   

CLOCKS GET SET BACK SATURDAY EVENING/FOR SUNDAY MORNING

SUNDAY: Early one hour on sunrise but continued quite cool for this time of year. Lows in the low 50Fs to upper 40Fs (north) (colder North Florida), but winds to veer on shore by late morning to early afternoon. Sunday afternoon looks to be much warmer in the afternoon than on Saturday but still quite breezy and might begin to see onshore moving shallow stratocumulus clouds coming ashore at some point. The warmest location statewide might be from Canaveral (beachside) to Melbourne Beach (-side) then again near Miami Beach through the Keys.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Wind to become NE-ENE but continued maybe even breezier on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Temperatures round the clock near the East coast in the lower-mid 70Fs, contingent upon cloud cover. Might see some light sprinkles come out of the clouds from time to time, but measurable rainfall totals not really anticipated. Would expect Small Craft Advisories to be in affect.

BEYOND: Winds to decrease slowly but surely with modified Atlantic air to continue. Temperatures mainly ranging through the 70Fs round the clock, only changeable due to periods of cloud coverage. Another front is shown to approach but at this point does not appear to have any or much influence. No other cold spells are foreseen beyond this week end really for quite some time. Might have to contend with more clouds than not though, especially once heating of the day begins with a deeper and steady onshore flow having resumed.

Potential For "Inclement" Weather Next Week Remains

Early Fall October Storm Over Cape Canaveral, 2014

TODAY- MONDAY: Little change in current conditions as first cold front lies will south of the Florida straits toward the Yucatan. Another frontal boundary which will likely approach Central Florida 'dry' will enter into the picture later tomorrow into Sunday. This will result in a better low level westerly wind flow ahead of it, perhaps offsetting the sea breeze along the east coast on Saturday and/or Sunday. The boundary is forecast to make it about as far south as Central Direct or more toward I4.

It is this boundary that might play a critical part moving into early next week in regard to two factors:

1) The potential for low pressure to form in the Bay of Campeche. and;

2) Another frontal boundary to approach with another upper level system moving across the Central Mississippi River Valley Basin on Monday going into Tuesday. 

Meanwhile, morning lows similar to past mornings and remaining dry with a slight up tick in moisture and perhaps cloud coverage at the low levels Sunday afternoon or morning near the boundary, mainly North and Central Parts. The NAM shows no hesitation in breaking out full on rain showers over Volusia and Brevard, but suspect it's going a little over -board (which is oft the case with the NAM model).. Otherwise, morning lows in the lower - mid 60Fs most areas and highs in the lower-mid 80Fs but dry.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: This is the big question mark period referred to several days ago in the previous post. The chances of a tropically named system seemed to be going by the way side now, but instead a re-occurrence of an old theme from earlier in the summer emerges. An inverted low-mid level trough extending from the far SW Gulf across Central Florida or perhaps South Florida. The critical point to be noticed is the next trough approach early next week. The GFS implies a 'tele-connection' between those two systems (and might add, neither of which fully even exists to begin with). And it is that connection that is critical concerning what happens next. Therefore, given there is still 4 more days until even then...the rest goes without saying.

But the implications so far are that : In doing so the old boundary of Sunday though it might retreat north a bit returns south accompanied by a low stretched out 'troughiness'. ..as noted below. 

There is an explicit demarcation line/boundary between moist and dry air involved here as well, with north Florida so far not being included in this scenario. Might also add per forecast office discussions, the implication is per the Euro-model (ECMWF) that all 'said wet weather' could end up remaining south of the state entirely. For now will ride with the GFS though as a precautionary measure.

IF (now IF) the "worse for wear" evolves we could be seeing large rainfall totals over a two day period somewhere south of I-4 toward South Florida and possible a window of opportunity for isolated severe storms due to directional wind and speed shear in the mid to low levels with divergence aloft from the proximity of the jet stream (rainfall totals over 6").  If it does not, pleasant weather for the most part might well continue. 

Chances of storms with strong Gusting Winds Mainly as Noted In More Detail Below

TODAY: It's been 10 days since the last post as all has, for the most part, materialized as supposed. We had our cool down with some record lows set, and now a few record to near record warm morning low temperatures the past mornings or so, but otherwise it's been dry. A cold front approaches though as noted,  and things could change fast today compared to the best week where we were inactive.

Frontal boundary approaching with a few isolated pre-frontal troughs over the Gulf at time, and wondering if perhaps one or more might somehow form over land later. Regardless, the best instability is from near Ormond Beach South to Miami with lower Lifted Condensation levels and deeper overall moisture in that same region. Though I think a Tornado Watch might be issued across the north if there isn't one all ready, they have the wind fields going for them but it will it be enough? Either way, not to discount closer to Central and South Florida. 

The downdraft CAPE is pretty high along the east coast (if the one model I was looking at is correct) so updrafts for storms are going to have to struggle to manifest IF those values are correct, but once any updraft can punch on up the potential for strong and very wet winds does exist with gusts to 'near severe' levels, but only in isolated cases.

Will be watching for the East Coast paralleled winds where some storms might park and pull off a few sly moves especially later today when some boundaries which could interact from earlier shower activity to result in the usual unpredictable 'localized affects' . Further north, high clouds might put further hampers are stronger storms despite that better winds aloft  are up that way aloft. Several tornado warnings and a few reports occurred over the panhandle late yesterday.

TONIGHT WEDNESDAY: Front will ease on in North Central over night and be over Central Florida by daybreak and near a line running from Titusville to Tampa around noon time -3pm time frame. Just exactly how far south it gets will determine where storm chances will exist though at this time today appears to be the day for the stronger storm chances up to this point in time. Rain chance tomorrow through from southern Volusia to North Tampa and south to Miami perhaps as late as afternoon in that northern more area but continuing later further south toward evening   Timing is still in question. After dark though the front should clear all but far South Florida

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Much cooler in the mornings notably on Friday morning with lows running in the 50Fs many areas but toward the low to mid 60Fs east coast with upper 70Fs on Thursday and/or Friday but warming over the weekend. 

Though mornings will continue to be on the cooler side afternoons should be able to get into the low-mid 
80Fs under mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds becoming onshore in the afternoons near the beaches.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: The GFS has been very consistent in forming a very wet period in about 8-10 days from now. It's shown anything from a strong tropical storm over or near the state to but an inverted trough running across the Yucatan to Florida with a pressure pattern that would induce a stiff onshore wind flow of 35-40mph with heavy rains. Guidance has varied from run to turn with all kinds of interesting results with some to nearly absurd but the real low down is that it is too soon to say which if any scenario will come to fruition. As recalled in a previous post, a near hurricane was also shown to occur in the extended time from which had that been true, we'd be already seeing it in the formative stages preparing to head this way. No surprise though, that is not the case at all. 

Though, with all the rains we had last month and some of this month and high water tables, another big prolonged or shorter heavy rainfall period with winds could still be an issue if the situation does arise. Saturated grounds with strong winds could down some trees with power outages since it's been quite some time since there has been a widespread stronger wind event in the area (October 2011 was the last time such occurred).

First Front of Season Entering Central, Near Record Lows Possible By Morning

Images from Mesoscale Analysis Page from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
website using the Level Of Free Convection (LFC) Contours to locate front

TODAY: Cold front is located along the boundary between the red and light blue lines across North Central Florida and appears to be even further south than that a bit as of 10AM. This cold front should be near a Cocoa Beach to South Tampa Bay line by around noon time if not a bit sooner. Little chance of rain other than a few spits over Central and maybe a brief shower as was noted near the coast of Canaveral just after sunrise, with the better chance of showers   near and South of Lake Okeechobee due to  onset of better (sunlit) heating with less cloud cover down that way at present time.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday as a result of earlier cloud cover, and full clearing to completion might be totally realized until between 
6 pm - sunset time frame, mainly in the form of remnant lower level clouds skirting by. Sunset could be  a 'novel experience' compared to what we've seen fro the past 4-5 months. 

TONIGHT: The driest of air begins to move in well after dark with outrageously low precipitable water values down toward 1/2" if not less, compared to summer month values of 1.7" - 2.2" inches; this could feel quite dry in relative terms as will the air feel 'quite cool if not too cool' (again, in relative to what we've been accustomed to for months now). 

Should be a great night for opening windows if not a bit too cool to cold depending on the person. Lows could reach near record values most anywhere, as the NWS is mainly eyeing the Daytona Beach Airport region, but other areas could also reach a record low where official readings are not measured from   Southern Lake County and down the west side of Orlando along Route 27 with lows in the lower 50Fs .  Orlando appears to be looking at a 54F - 57F which is close to the record. Immediate east coast beaches from Cape Canaveral and Southward (along A1A) seem to be near 63F but this might be too cold considering the warmth of surrounding waters so still shooting at the classic 67F based on experience since there will be some wind . The less wind, the more likely it would be cooler though.

Front and clearing line positions at 10AM, Saturday Morning

SUNDAY: Quite pleasant but a bit breezy at the beaches and intra-coastal during peak heating hours due to mixing resulting in a northerly wind around 15-20 mph but sunny. Temperatures dropping again after dark to similar values for the most part. I'm thinking the official forecast might be overshooting afternoon highs, but then again, the forecast value of upper 70Fs might be only to last an hour or less..but in average afternoon should be in the 73-76F range  but again warmer waters will add some modification. A nice day to have the windows open.

MONDAY: After another cool start Monday morning the afternoon will warm by about 5 degrees from the previous day.   Not as breezy so nearer to Chamber of Commerce Weather for a classic early fall day wiht images of dancing pumpkins and falling leaves and warly morning sweathers filling the senses. 

TUESDAY-BEYOND: So much for Fall Weather with a return to more normal conditions with highs in the 80Fs and coastal morning lows in the low 70Fs warming to mid-upper 70Fs in the following days. Perhaps showers mainly South Florida working north toward Friday to impact the east coast early morning hours but nothing overly ambitious with near zero thunderstorms except maybe SW Florida late week. So far, not a hint of another cold blast but toward the last week of October though I did read somewhere that the ECMWF model is showing something different next week, but in regard to temperatures at least, I do not know and not much paying heed at this point.

TROPICS: GFS continues to imply something tropical to work north around the 14th -17th of October, but as noted before, this model has done that same several times since May in the extended time frame and look what happened. Nothing. Still worth watching though.  

Fall's First Clearance Sells for a 'Chilling' Sunday Morning Price - Storms Possible Today

"Out with the Hot, in with the Very Cool" - Free A/C with each purchase!"

TODAY:  Long anticipated first cold front of the fall season is closing ranks on the Florida Peninsula sales associates coming into Saturday afternoon and evening. This front is impacting in varying ways almost the entire country east of the Rocky Mountains as customers are trampling each other for the free freshened air. The parent upper low pressure area is well north in South Central Canada and very wrapped up taking the form of a giant apostrophe with the northern extent already occluding out. The southern extent moving across the South Central Plains and into the Deep South will enter the panhandle later tonight and into Central Florida beginning noon time Saturday.

Meanwhile, with a sea breeze active and WNW winds aloft, atmospheric destabilization in the presence of a less moist atmosphere from that of several days ago will lead to very warm temperatures inland but closer to normal at the beaches. Convergence of boundaries will also be last to come and later than the norm, but where this does occur we could see some storms well-up, if not even being potentially a bit strong. On the other hand, they might only manifest as rain showers; best chances are somewhere in between. The panhandle region appears to have a better chances of storms but again, high clouds could spread east ahead of the line of storms currently to their west which could put  the kabbash on storm strength. 

Storm motion appears will be from the NW-WNW but might vary along the sea breeze boundary especially if they can hold up and roll toward the coast.

See Captions. Again, most activity will be a bit isolated
and exactly 'where' any storms could
develop is sketchy. Best chances though of something stronger appears to be east of I-95 and north of SR 60 if not 50 on the east coast  after 5pm.

SATURDAY: Front to enter Central Florida toward I-4 around noon-time and progress southward, reaching South Florida by or just after dark. The front will be very close to a Cape Canaveral to Sarasota line around 1pm give or take an hour with drier air not far behind. The real input of the dry and cold air should become realized around 8 -9pm Saturday evening across all of Central Florida from a Melbourne west toward Sarasota line... and continue to infiltrate southward over night on NNW winds.

SUNDAY MORNING: GFS has been quite consistent for days now showing Mid 50Fs as far south as far SW Florida and lower 50s in the interior to west coast, with the west side of Orlando for example being in the 52-54F range and then mainly mid - upper 50Fs east toward I-95. Near 60F close to US1 and on the immediate beaches from 63F-67F. Generically over the years, 67F has often been measured on the first burst of fall in Cocoa Beach as a reference, so it will be interesting to see what the verdict is on the price of final sales in that respect for a location such as East Coastal Brevard County. 

The warmest locations Sunday morn will be from Cape Canaveral south to the keys as is typical even in the winter months. Note that morning low prices on this Sunday morning clearance sale could reach between 15- 25F degrees cooler than summer block busters ,  that what we've been accustomed to for 'many moons'; so it will take a frag of adjusting too and feel a bit unusual but will be easy on the walllet. Perfect for Sunday morning dress up codes.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY: NOTE the 'Dip" way up by British Columbia? (That's the next front)

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sunny and quite pleasant but maybe just a bit breezy with a high in the lower 70Fs though could peak out briefly warmer for an hour. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly as the sun gets low within an hour of sunset except at the immediate beaches after midnight.

MONDAY MORNING: Lighter ENE-NE winds should keep the immediate beaches from 'bottoming out' back into the 50Fs but instead level off around midnight if not even warm a few degrees; however, there is a chance that the model is over-guestimating return onshore flow, so would not be surprised if this morning is also a bit 'tart' on the outside thermostat if expecting it to be warmer (say upper 60Fs as opposed to low 60Fs). Otherwise, open the windows if so desired either evening. Free A/C for all!! No coupon necessary.

BEYOND: Tuesday will begin air mass modification day with full return to near normal in the afternoon and beyond. The next front will then be approaching toward week's end but with moisture return beginning potentially as soon as Thursday morning along the east coast in the form of coastal showers. The next front so far will become detached from the 'mother low' shown above and so far is not being indicated to have nearly the impact if barely any temperature wise. 

TROPICS: This front today as mentioned before could become in part a trigger for something tropical in the far Western Caribbean heading into Week two so might bear watching. Otherwise, the front in another way will lift back north as a moisture boundary with better chances of east coast morning showers mostly Friday and Saturday as well working inland in the day light hours..

Large East Side Rainfall Totals Possible Through Tuesday, Fall Like on Sunday

TODAY: Light onshore flow this morning will quickly become South to SSW mid-late morning. Steering aloft is already from the SSW and will become more SW as well. Deep moisture in excess of 2 inches through the "atmospheric column" (precipitable water) combined with instability as measured by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lifted Indices (LI) (though only moderate) would yield localized high rainfall totals most anywhere but especially along the East Coast from as far north as Jax toward Ft Pierce where the sea breeze will run more parallel to the shore. 

Other higher totals might occur further inland over the Everglades region south of Lake O.  Since rainfall totals of the past week have added up, wouldn't be surprised if a Flash Flood advisory were to be in order for the next few days, especially focused on areas that have already received more rains and have pour drainage. For example, the GFS has varied on exactly where such higher totals could occur, but has almost always shown Brevard County along to east of I-95 as a particular area of interest for two days now. 

TUESDAY: Frontal boundary to work into Central Florida and begin to undergo frontalysis (weakening) and might get hooked up across the Beach Line latitude until after dark . Rains decrease from I-4 and north with a  primary focus more from near Port St John or Canaveral west toward South Tampa Bay and all regions south (favoring interior and east side). This might end up being a day where a select area will see abundantly more rains than most other areas as opposed to vast areal coverage (but toward the east side ).

WEDNESDAY: Guidance has been flaky coming into Wednesday. Latest two GFS runs imply the boundary will enter to South Florida but be extremely 'shallow' in depth with Westerly type winds just above 'the deck' remaining. Sea breeze convergence type activity might be limited toward interior areas running from Canaveral west to Tampa in general but could drift toward the east. Other areas further north do not appear to be completely exempt though.

THURSDAY - might be a variation of Wednesday with decreasing rain chances but for South Florida.

BEYOND: Another front will be approaching on  Friday into Saturday with one of both days once again exhibit higher rain chances, though this time it doesn't appear to be any form of a 'prolonged' event as this front is continuously being shown to pass through making for THE FIRST COOL MORNING of the season on Sunday. Some 50Fs even possible interior I-4 and north. However, it will be rather short -lived for those along the immediate east coast as easterly winds blowing off warm ocean waters will follow in suit by later that day and days to come with highs remaining maybe in the lower 80Fs Sunday but back to mid 80Fs to warmer than that interior of days to follow.

TROPICS: GFS is implying a system might form in the Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan for several runs. "Tis the Season' for such as it is, and might bear watching as the latter front might lay dormant in this region making for impetus tropical storm formation. 

At this time of year, it is not unusual for a storm to form there to move toward at least South Florida or just off to the east of Florida. *recalling Irene

Already Large Rainfall Totals Could Compile Today South of I-4

"Wednesday Early Afternoon - Storm Moves Ashore
Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral, FL"

TODAY; Complicated set up today as an inverted trough runs along to near the Florida East coast merging with an old frontal boundary that moved off shore the Mid Atlantic region. A low pressure area had formed the other day over the Deep South and moved NE with the trailing boundary; but,  it now appears another Low at the mid levels is trying to form in the same place as the previous one keeping the current situation in limbo from 'changing out'; however, in the wake of the previous low high pressure nosed in behind with significant atmospheric drying at the critical levels north of I-4 despite that the region is currently cloudy. 

As a result, the best areas for atmospheric crying aka. "rain chances" today are as shown. Thunder could occur most any time, but the prevalent feature potential with precipitate water values above two inches or close to that value is from Titusville and west to south end of Tampa Bay (later today). Overnight, the rain chance will work north so that by Saturday it will at least as far north as I-4. 

Rain Storm moving in on Cape Canaveral

For for today, suspect with some more heating regeneration of showers and storms south of I-4 , perhaps earlier in the day near the coast working inland with time. Maybe regeneration near the coast late today as well, but any time and any where is fair game. Rain fall totals in some areas have already exceeded 5", with one person reporting over 5" in an hour and a half the other day , while yesterday morning near  the Volusia/Flagler line another similar amount was reported as a result of a stationary boundary that looks similar to the one near Cape Canaveral south to Melbourne at this current time.

FRIDAY: Not too much of change but the chance of rain will spread north by day's end toward I-4.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

WEEKEND: Probably the chances of heavier rain fall will end, at least on the broader scale, though some spots will likely see some good rains. Clouds might be more the issue but model guidance at this point is widely spread on the rain chances (and cloud cover) so not hedging any bets considering the time of year and the way things have been panning out lately it's been a day by day struggle, with the models seemingly behind on a continuous basis on the small scale short term.

This Morning, Cape Canaveral. This storm dropped a good one inch plus in short order over Cocoa Beach

Possible Large Rainfall Totals Through Wednesday, Isolated Strong Storms

PURPLE: Inverted mid-level trough extending from Southern Gulf Region
BLUE: Cold front dropping toward that above mentioned trough
NOT SHOWN: very weak surface boundary near Southern Lake O. 

TODAY: As expected might be the case, we've entered the realm now of do or die so to speak in regard to 'live by the models, die by the models' vs. fly by the seat of your pants mode. 

Greatest instability per models is South Florida once again but again it will all be contingent on where high cloud cover over rules (resulting in less rainfall) vs upper level winds and divergence (North Florida).  Guidance is playing pretty heavy along the west coast near Tampa Bay inland half way across the state in general and NE Florida late today to early evening from a frontal boundary approaching that area. Suspect due to the most cloud cover and rain fall , storm activities will be along to south of the mid level 'purple' trough axis shown above southward to Brevard County toward Sarasota with a stronger emphasis by far toward the west side. 

Reason for that being that though upper level winds are stronger now than they have been all summer, those winds can also spread high clouds toward the east side well before stronger or more heavily moisture laden storms can form there. On the other hand, storms could form there regardless if the timing is right. if you've noticed there has been reference to bulk shear or wind shear for quite some time in the post, namely because in the summer there are no strong upper level winds almost the entire time. Fall is slowly nodding this way but so far doesn't seem to eager to enter the tropical realm too soon (not at least into the first week of October). 

Further South, storms could occur here as well but for a slightly different reason. Slower storm motion here might actually produce larger rainfall totals due to slow storm motion, but no storm today is going to be moving very fast anyway. Training could even set up somewhere but ultimately end up as a blanket of light/moderate rain over a large area lasting well past dark wherever that might happen to be. Though some storms could be strong, the best chance appears to be late toward JAX and south toward Ormond Beach and more toward the coast of West Central Florida otherwise.
 Another area might be toward the South Half of Brevard/Osceola/Indian River County but those are only potentials, not givens.


TUESDAY: So far this morning the models of NAM and GFS origin imply a somewhat wet day with an early start. Now, that might again only be cloud cover as opposed to rainfall, but with several mid and surface boundaries in our midst with accompanying upper and mid level vorticity (wind energy) near by rain could fall beginning well before noon. On the other hand, if it holds off, storms could again become strong.

TUESDAY LATE -WEDNESDAY: No two days ever the same and this will be more so in this transition to another pattern yet none all the less continued wet as the end result. Only WHY it will rain could be for a totally different reason. 

Mid level trough to dwindle but flow switches to off the Bahamas as noted yesterday in the lower levels with more easterly but very light surface winds. This could set up a training affect along the east coast from Indian River County toward Brevard but exactly where and even IF this occurs will be, as usual, unknown until it actually begins (if it does).

The NAM has joined the ranks as of this morning of an older GFS run which really raises some flags regardless of what a newer GFS run is implying. The last one I saw was now back to more rains along the east coast for a day or two then it all folds together to cover the state in various ways into Thursday at least. By that time, we've extend our welcome and can no longer rely on guidance given all the above confusing circumstances.

For all we know, a weak tropical system could   form  during this Particularly Messy Situation  in the eastern gulf (un-named, but pretty much doubt it would be but subtropical of origin anyway).  

Large rainfall totals could arise sum total of all days put together by Later Wednesday due to all of these extenuation circumstances, not that some heavy rainfalls haven't already occurred in isolated instances on days during the summer, only it appears more possible over a larger area during this time frame. Man your rain gauges!

SUMMER ENDS TONIGHT AT 10:29 PM  EDT

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY:

Last Full Day of Summer: Chances of Showers/Storms Through Tuesday

FALL BEGINS WHEN THE SUN PASSES OVER THE EQUATOR DIRECTLY: 
10:29 PM EDT Monday Evening , September 22nd.

TODAY: Not much change in reasoning regarding the next three days from the previous post.  Info from model guidance and satellite imagery shows two apparent boundaries: the later being more defined by the northern most extent of deepest moisture with increasing  moisture over South Central and South Florida. This moisture might be further north than than models are showing but water vapor imagery is showing North Brevard is about as far as it gets for this time so far. This could be a player later today where the drier meets the more moist (North Brevard/SW Volusia area).

 That gradient might play in late today toward early evening for either increased shower or storm activity or a strong storm. Other thunder and showers could occur almost anywhere further south though as well;  however, at this time satellite imagery is suggesting something might be 'amiss' in a few specifics that will make the bigger difference toward Volusia county especially later today where storms could occur near the coast at least for the south half of it and inland a bit.

High cloud wisps here and there are putting a damper on instability (less heating) and we're getting to the time of year when seemingly every minute begins to count in weather the temperature will reach the critical convective threshold for rising air currents especially since in the upper levels the temperatures are not so unusually cold at all and the surface to low level boundaries are rather not sharply defined.  It appears at time a better chance of showers at least would be Central and South Central Florida toward the east side, though they could occur most anywhere.

Some activity might still be around far East Central toward Brevard after dark.

MONDAY: Though  the boundaries have weakened today with sea breezes in place so will it be tomorrow with less cloud coverage in the afternoon and better heating . Best instability appears will run south of line from Daytona or Ormond Beach west toward Brookesville or even Cedar key. Divergence might be best aloft over the east half of the state however south of Daytona to near the Cape and inland with storms there, but other activity is possible as well. Though not a broad total coverage will occur, most any where could see storms and maybe a strong to 'near severe' could occur East Central to eastern North Central.

TUESDAY: The frontal boundary gets toward Central but is crested by High Pressure to the north. Showers could occur near the coast even in the morning from that time on into Wednesday but still this day could be yet another 'strong storm potential ' one with colder air aloft seeming to be more certain as of the morning GFS.

WEDNESDAY: Light easterly winds at the low levels begins as the front is now in full frontolysis (broken down) but with SE winds streaming north of the Bahamas toward East Central and Volusia just above the surface this could create the dynamics for coastal showers; thus , watching for rain near the coast in the morning and into the afternoon at least. At least it is something to consider at this time. 

Model disparity based on run to model run seems to be breaking down at this point in regard to continuity. Some GFS runs are still showing some larger accumulations of rainfall at the coast toward the weekend, followed by the next run that says it's not going to happen. Chances are it will not, but wouldn't put all the eggs in that basket until the 4rd quarter and we're not there yet. By tomorrow, we should know for certain if any kind of 'rain event' will occur.

Showers/Developing Rain Shield/Some Thunder Possible

TODAY:  Shorter post today as most of yesterday's so far appears to be materializing 'as scheduled'. Boundary lifting north mid morning is now near the Volusia /Brevard Border along the east coast and little further northward motion is anticipated. A weak low pressure circulation per radar animations is east off Northern Volusia. That low is expected to pull off only slowly today toward the ENE -NE but a secondary one could develop over the land mass during the day near Brevard County as the mid level low associated with the surface low is much more broadly distributed across North and North Central Florida and into the eastern Atlantic by the surface low.

There are two boundaries and upper energy with each. One is moving toward South Florida but not sure this will be the more active area and therefore did not draw in thunder there despite that greater instability will materialize there. Chances are there will be some thunder down that way, as the HRRR  model highly 'recommends' to presume  that will be the case. 

The RUC and GFS  models disagree and focus the festivities along the vorticity (energy)  across Central with  more rotating into North Florida which will enter North Central later today.

Instability isn't all that much outside of South Florida though but there remains a chance of thunderstorms today , some a bit 'elevated' more than likely though rain is rain. Severe weather so far is not anticipated but heavy rainfall is always a good possibility especially along the east side of the state north of Vero or Ft. Pierce to South or  Central Volusia spreading into interior areas though do note that not one model is showing that will be the case  by the time early evening arrives.

SUNDAY: Boundary will move very little and dwindle out as the low pressure area will move up along the Eastern Central U.S. Coast and be absorbed into the much larger low pressure trough moving across the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast States with time. 

Cloud cover again could be an issue, but suspect that most storms and showers on this day will be along and south of the Boundary or south of I-4 and especially south of a line running from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay, focused mostly over the east half of the state all the way down to the northern Keys   

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Meanwhile, another front is moving into the Deep South to enter the picture later Monday and Tuesday , so thunder might again occur on one or both days though overall atmospheric moisture should be reduced thus limiting the extent of cloud coverage overall. Suspect if there are to be stronger storms it will be Monday closer to the east coast from Brevard and South to Miami.

BY WEDNESDAY high pressure building across the Eastern US absorbs all remaining traces of said activity and a deep but mild onshore flow regime sets in resulting in warmer overnight lows at the beaches but slightly cooler afternoons over all with 90Fs hard to come by, especially at the beaches.


Longer range GFS was setting up for a potential 'heavy rainfall totals' event along the east coast mid next week toward the weekend, but a bit skeptical on that until greater consistency is given, on account that is too far out in time. We are near the time of the No Name Storm of 2011 though which was the first week of October and signs of that event to show up were quite consistent using the very same model we are currently speaking of  which had shown such to occur next week. Show, that is, until the last model run. Additionally, the ECMWF model is not showing such to be the upcoming situation now either. Maybe things will switch back though so might bear watching.

Cooler with Clouds/ Some Showers/Storms Friday into Weekend

Latest Synoptic Scale Set Up Leaves
Little For Today but MUCH
for Coming Days ahead 

TODAY: Weak frontal boundary lays across South Florida near the south banks of  "The Big Lake Down South" at the surface while higher up the boundary resides a bit further north. As can be seen above, a disturbance aloft is poised toward north Florida initially coming into Friday and then most of the state as follows up settle in. At time, Florida is playing host as a bit of a 'frontal grave yard' with little aloft to set the wheels in motion for storms, abetted by a bit drier air. As a result, today looks like a respite from what could be a bit more of a weathery pattern in regard to cloud cover and potential rain chances. With clearer skies and drier air, warm today but drier, and cooler again tonight by a few degrees.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: As another front approaches the Deep South and with disturbances aloft already in place superimposed underneath divergence aloft cloud cover should increase as well as shower chances during the day Friday, but exactly when the wheels will begin to set this in motion will be determined as it happens.  The surface front will buckle back north as will the mid level features to north Florida with time, which might take up through late or mid afternoon Saturday.

Before that time with cold air aloft aided by some upper level divergence, suspect guidance might be down playing the rain fall potential, and instead is calling for cooler temperatures as a result of cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling produced by rain that never reaches the ground as a result of over running with easterly surface winds and westerly winds aloft. There could be change over to thunder though south of I-4 on Saturday more specifically as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and winds become more south to southwest.

Also, as these disturbances over run the grave yard, the old boundary  could be 'resurrected' into a surface front with  accompanying low pressure to form over or near East Florida with a trailing frontal boundary across North Central. This boundary might have a hard time sliding south as the upper level support will be pulling off to the Northeast too soon to glide it through.

SATURDAY has the potential be quite 'rainy' at least and cloudy, cooler as a result.

SUNDAY: Sunday remains a bit uncertain with the front still to the north, but also some of the moisture aloft will have been squeegeed out with the low pressure that will be forming, but will it be too much for rainfall on this day? suspect not, but cloud cover issues should be resolved by then.

In the case of continued ample moisture but not over-bearingly so, and cooler air aloft with still some support from the upper levels, thunder could occur mid-late afternoon, some strong...but with warmer temperatures on the ground with the improved lighting conditions aided by low level surface instability.

MONDAY: By late Sunday into Sunday night the next front could be across the I-4 or so but begin to dwindle much like the previous boundary did. How far South it will entertain remains in question and by that time we are at a new week. Suspect it will get a bit further south then Central though the trend so far has been a variation of the past few days resulting in a repeat performance of what has just been described above. Suspect we might see some moisture convergence North Central late day with the next boundary, as the moisture previous works south toward Lake Okeechobee and south region. Another front though is still poised to enter the picture mid-week next week. 

Which means, up and down weather with true fallish like regimes combating summer refusing to let go as evidenced by the strength of the Atlantic Ridge stretching toward Florida Central and South and sometimes North. Could be rains off and on into the following week but it's too far out in time to tell, until we know how strong with greater certainty the next trough coming in on the west coast of the U.S. will be and how far south it will dig next week.

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