Broad Coverage of Showers and Thunder Today, Some Near - Severe Possible Early Next Week?

Sunrise Thursday Morning, June 25, 3025

TODAY: Really not much change today from yesterday with more widespread storm coverage to evolve during the late morning through mid-afternoon with the show - hogs coming on stage late afternoon to early evening when things really get rolling inland from both and all coasts. Chance of lingering rains somewhere Central to South Central well past dark could drip out the last vestiges of the day's convective elements.

Some activity might be able to work back toward the coast as far south as the Brevard Coast in general to offshore (in a weakened state) but at least it would be some rain much needed. Otherwise, some stronger storms are possible but nothing 'extreme is foreseen' so far relevant to say an average storm day

BEYOND: As was noted yesterday ...west to east steering flow will begin over the weekend, latest guidance suggests at least a small chance that the east coast sea breeze might be able to form on some days from Saturday through Tuesday but too soon to say for sure.  But if so, some strong to near severe storms would be possible given the colder air aloft shown to be in place for a few days early next week (colder than what is currently aloft).

If so, it wouldn't be getting very far inland from the beaches. Moisture availability over general regions will have to remain on hold until each day arrives.  Finally some summer like weather though  as the first day of celestial summer has just passed.

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Synoptic Scale Pattern Shift Could Bring Needed East Coast Rains At Last

Sunrise Skies (Looking West) Wednesday Morning

TODAY: Pattern shift advertised by the GFS model referred to in a previous post seems to be locking in with greater confidence as of the over night runs. A heat ridge (believe it is referred to as a Sonora Heat Ridge) to build over the Desert Southwest Region with rising heights as far north as Southern Canada with a response of falling 500mb heights to the east will result in 'Ridge to the west  -  trough over the East'. This will bring much cooler temperatures to many areas of the country but also for Florida change the storm steering currents closer to NORMAL for June and early July...finally.  

Heat to build over this weekend into early next week (shown is around the 5000 ft level AGL)
Note the winds over Florida at that level by then are from the west at 15kts

The Response higher up at 20,000 ft is winds from the west at 15-20 knots as well

Today: A bit unexpectedly a weak mid level low pressure circulation of sorts has formed over Southern to Central Georgia. This will result in a very weak mid level flow from the west toward the east today, but so weak the change will barely be discernible for most, especially people that are inland. 

For the east coast, this might encourage late day (mostly early evening) cloud cover to increase, with a nudge of the sea breeze collision perhaps another 10 miles further toward the east than yesterday in various locations along the north south line running down the state. Strongest storms would be late after 6:pm from western Osceola County and north through or near the Ocala region toward Gainesville or even east of that line perhaps over toward the Suwanee River Basin 

Another 'hot spot' could be closer toward Sanford eventually depending on how far inland the east coast sea breeze has made it. Slight chance some activity could work back toward the east coast after dark north of SR 50 as light rain.

BEYOND: Not much change tomorrow but Friday there is a chance that steering might favor even more toward the east side as a large and powerful Heat Ridge builds over the Desert Southwest Region as noted in the above images (which were depictions for the Monday  next week time frame).

Heat Ridges can be very stubborn to break down...combined with the trough over the East as shown steering aloft will increase from west to east. There is a chance that by Saturday or Sunday through Tuesday a sea breeze on the east side will be hard to come by north of Ft Pierce or Melbourne. If so that would or could mean very warm at the coast but a decreased chance of rains as well without the added boost of a sea breeze collisions. Time will tell, as that is still a bit too far out in time.

Otherwise, by mid-week next week the ridge is expected to lift north more from well to the south which will weaken steering and allow sea breezes to work their magic, with the ridge axis across Florida then oscillating somewhere between mainly Central to South Central for an extended period. 

This would be the first time this summer that storms will not be continuously shoved to the left side of the state for a large percentage of the time. East coast could finally get some needed rains is the short and long of it.

Isolated Showers - Inland Storms Possible - One or Two Briefly Strong

Monday Sunrise at Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Might see a bit more activity inland today over yesterday. There was some late night activity as thought might occur up by the JAX area and other activity around the Tampa area into early morning. Both of those areas have resulted in an imbalance in the spread of instability with a slow start to the CU field in some locations -- additionally there is a chance that both areas of activity have left a boundary outside the perimeter of them..which might act as a catalyst for storm initiation later today. 

Otherwise, there appears to be a bit more moisture today with both the RAP and NAM showing drier conditions over South Florida / South Central which is forecast to recover going into mid afternoon...by which time the east coast sea breeze will have made its greatest inland progress from West Palm and South.

Could be a late day collision east of 27 running from near the Polk/Osceola County line snaking north and east a bit here or there toward far western Volusia/Sanford/ Ocala / Gainesville give or take about 20 miles either side of that line. Most active period might begin shortly after 4pm... through dark... some lingering inland activity well past dark.

Areas being considered, though might have noted  SW Florida as well

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Daily basis analysis regime has set in. Little change over all foreseen, but moisture availability might be in question -- overall a pattern shift   emerges on Thursday becoming   evident over the weekend as steering currents take hold with a west toward the eastside component.

SUMMER BEGINS 12:38 PM EDT - Small Chance of ISO-Strong / Severe Interior North/Central - Very Warm All Areas

Sunday Rising! Port Canaveral, June 21

TODAY: Summer begins in just 23 minutes from time of this typing celestially on Father's Day at 12:38PM EDT.

Also, there is a chance of some isolated (perhaps very isolated ) thunderstorms today, to severe-near severe limits due to wind gusts. 

Slower start and less cumulus cloud field could yield to another very warm to hot day with heat indexes close to criteria statement status. Model guidance across the boards and radar simulations all show much less activity today, and mostly no severe storms either, but regardless will take sea breeze convergence into account and call their bluff. The Meso-scale Analysis page has rather high values as of this hour (based on the RAP model) of Micro-burst Potential over north Florida, something to watch. There is also a hint that just perhaps we might end up seeing some night time activity along the east side of the state from near JAX south toward Sanford/Mims well past sunset toward even midnight. Such can occur, but is rarely ever actually forecast -- but worth the mention

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance has changed a little bit in regard to storm coverage by upping the interior rain chances back to what it was like the past two days across the interior with perhaps some activity moving off the east coast mainly north of I-4. 

Some stronger storms again possible all days with the temperature profiles being depicted and the less than overly saturated atmosphere in place allowing for dry slots in the mid-levels to permit more rapidly descending /cooling air masses to plummet earthward and spread out in all directions.

Storms over NE Orange County Country Saturday

LATE WEEK -NEXT WEEKEND: The trend continues as relayed in the previous post that activity might make  more "forward march!!" toward the east coast with increased steering currents -- unlike today where steering is close to NIL, but apparent motion if anything could form would be propagation along boundaries or activity being directed by boundaries remaining from yesterday.

"Magic Hours" Isolated Strong Storms Possible Down Spine of the State

Lightning Filled Storm on Nova Rd. Osceola County Friday

TODAY: Not a whole lot of changes from yesterday. Expect perhaps some early afternoon activity to form along the east coast sea breeze South and South Florida and work north and inland with time.

Other showers might then begin to form along the west coast sea breeze. Would watch for Okeechobee Magic though near Martin County to eastern Okeechobee or St. Lucie Counties earlier on as well where the east coast sea breeze meets the lake breze.

However, the ""Magic Hours" of 4:30 - 7:00pm would be the most likely time for strongest activities over the  interior as the sea breeze and outflow boundaries meet. After yesterday's activity, there might also be some latent boundaries remaining, lying in waiting for activation.  

Cool outflow winds gust  from stronger or converged activity could press back to some of the coast line Central and North Central regions ..especially east central from rain cooled air as occurred yesterday toward Brevard, accompanied by a 'gust front' arcus cloud. Though temperatures aloft are not especially cold there is quite a bit of dry air up there, and so some strong wind gusts could occur outside of the rains themselves related to outflow boundaries. Lightning number one hazard.  

SUNDAY: Storms again possible mainly Central and South, but moisture might be lacking for broader coverage

BEYOND: Monday through Wednesday looks to have more isolated in nature activity. The GFS continues to show a pattern shift beginning around Thursday which could, if correct, last until Tuesday of the following week. 

Severe Warned Storm East Central Florida Friday

This upcoming pattern would favor storms leaning toward the East Coast late day and early evening and even moving off shore if correct. That would be as a result of a strong ridge building northward from the Desert SW region and the rippled reply being a large upper level trough buckling south over the states east of the Mississippi. Continued monitoring of the longer range guidance will eventually tell the true story...but if the trend continues it might be safe to say it will be 'set in print' so to speak...by Monday contingent upon future model run consistency.

Sublime Pattern Change Could Bring Increased Storm Activity through Saturday

June 18th  2014 off the coast of Cape Canaveral

TODAY: As the remnant circulation of former TS Bill moves east across parts of Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri the persistent Atlantic Ridge axis which has been dominating the rather low activity of June has  temporarily  relaxed its  ' large coverage ' negating affects. 

The net affect will be to weaken the east to west steering currents of the past week allowing for sea breeze convergence/lake breeze boundaries to interact more effectively in the presence of a slight overall moisture increase. The GFS and NAM both show an up-tick in the westerly component at the 925mb (2000 ft level) which should aid in a slightly slower inland progression of the east coast sea breeze today while winds above that will be NW-N- and then light and variable as a mid-level high pressure bubble meanders across Central Florida.

 Overall, given the trend of the past few days (persistence),  there might be some marginally strong to severe storms once again over the interior with a bit more of a leaning toward the eastern side of the peninsula though not on the Barrier Islands exact (for example).

Strongest activity noted in red below is only an over generalized picture of where some isolated briefly warned storms might occur today, generally after 4:00-4:30pm through early evening.

There is a chance that the earliest activity will go over east central/central and outflow from this activity could result in the strongest of storms both to the south and north of that location in the early evening hours as the NAM had shown in previous runs, but nothing can be for certain in such a flow pattern. Broad brush strokes might be the best philosophy.

SATURDAY: Not much change other than that the west to east steering might be even a bit more persuasive over the north half of the peninsula...so that activity might be able to actually penetrate to the beaches north of Brevard County.

BEYOND: Not a whole lot of change other than the steering again relaxes and perhaps moisture levels will decrease storm activities back to the more atypical isolated fashion for this time of year that has been in place.

IN THE EXTENDED: The GFS has storms favoring the east side of the state to even moving offshore the east coast by next weekend for several days; although, it has shown this trend a few times in the past which never ended up evolving. If the GFS does finally verify now only a week out for several days in a row, the next factor would be yet still, 'But will there be enough moisture to quench the thirst of some moisture deprived coastal regions yet still?" Time will tell. 

Moisture availability, especially in situations  lacking a particular synoptic scale set up (e.g., lack of large scale affects) that would definitively advect  tropical  moisture to the regions, is a tough guess as it can vary widely on a daily basis...especially in regard to the far future.

Pattern Shift Overnight: - Storms (Isolated Strong - Late) Are Possible

TOUGH Forecast Today - Model Guidance Varies

TODAY: Long awaited pattern shift began overnight and is in full swing during the day into tonight through Wednesday and Thursday. For quite some time thunderstorm activity late day has been being directed toward the west or directed little at all. The pattern shift will bring storms more toward the east side of the state today, and possibly more so as we enter the early evening time frame north of Vero Beach.  

Steering will remain a bit slow until MAYBE late day after sea breezes will have come close to merging over the interior counties. Some activity might be able to make it back to the East Coast beach regions 'full swing' after 7:pm or so particularly from Brevard County and north as winds at the 2000 ft level are forecast by the latest RAP model to increase. By that time the east coast sea breeze will be well west of I-95 though, so any storms to make it back to the coast might have quite a time of it outside of unpredictable boundary mergers along with outflow from early activity. 

Some stronger storms seem possible around Lake Okeechobee  (Martin County for example as well as on the west and southwest side of the Lake) and over East Central mainly after 5:pm through 8:pm (in general) . 

Lighter shower and/or thunder activities might be able to begin as the sea breezes move inland, mainly over South Central/South since that is where the deeper moisture will reside to start the day...and parts of the west coast which appears for now to be the more active sea breeze today initially.

he strongest of activity will be contingent upon where more than two boundary mergers coincide late today / early evening. Biggest hazard as usual, lightning.

WEDNESDAY: Steering will be toward the east coast more definitely, but there might well be an 'early onset' along the west coast sea breeze front which would march east rather quickly. Cloudiness and lack of better instability as a result might remove the strong storm chance, but as usual, we'll just have to see what comes out from today and tonight to set this portion in stone.

THURSDAY: Perhaps another better day of stronger storms due to stronger boundary / sea breeze mergers and a later start to activities. Most activity might not reach the east coast directly (as in the direct beaches) except toward and north of I-4. Stronger storms would be near and west of I-95 and well away from the east coast for most of South and South Central.

FRIDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK: Pattern shift to the old early east coast showers/ late day storms far interior and west coast. Drier air might come into play initially like Friday through Sunday, but with time and more moisture the east coast mainly from The Cape and South might see early ocean shower activity commence as was the case the past two mornings.

Stronger Storms (to Marginal Severe ) Possible Again Today

Severe Storm over West Central Texas

TODAY: After several 'severe reports' yesterday from hail size 1" or greater and 'damaging' wind gusts, today could be another day of active weather but for different reasons as an upper level trough and associated low circulation deepens a bit over the U.S. Deep South. Jet stream winds today will be stronger aloft as cold temperatures there prevail, but surface based instability will be a bit limited due to the antecedent cloud cover now in place. 

Regardless, sufficient lapse rates, some upper level energy (vorticity) , cold air and local circulations could get the show rolling. The location of strongest storms will likely be just away from the coast toward the interior but exactly where is difficult to pinpoint as cloud cover tends to offset the sea breeze collision effect either in regard to timing, strength, location or all of those combined. Today's activity will be abetted by jet stream winds, cold air aloft, and the disturbances aloft over the usual generic sea breeze collisions alone (which is the typical summer regime). If cloud cover gets to dense and sea breezes remain weak stronger storms might be hard to come by, but beneficial rainfall toward the east coast would be helpful regardless of storm intensities.

BEYOND: Better chances of storms tomorrow appears to be over Southern Portions of Florida as jet stream winds will be strongest there. Other areas for storms will be contingent on the amount of antecedant cloud cover once again. Guidance differs in this regard, but over all there should be  decreasing rain chances for afternoon activity toward the east side of the state until around Sunday after a disturbance in whatever form it takes lifts out of the western Caribbean and well out and away from Florida. 

There are hints some drier air might begin to pass over the state as well in coming days or high clouds could also be an issue. Will play it day by day . 

Near Record Highs Today - Small Chance of Shower/Storm Far East Side

Will There 'Be a Catch of the Day' .... Today?

Example of a 'Catch of The Day' last September at the KSC South Gate  -  Looking North

TODAY: Models in agreement today of low precipitation coverage, but in disagreement on where what little if any falls, will be. For two days the NAM has said Brevard County and south but very isolated to almost none. The GFS has said from Brevard County and north but has been decreasing in coverage with every model run. The latest RAP went from some coverage to close to none other than two showers south of Brevard.

All in all today looks like a classic early season very warm to hot day for the time of years with highs in the lower to some mid 90Fs East Central Half to eastern South Central mainly with increasing SW winds. Moisture will be working from south to north fairly rapidly mid-late morning, but during the heat of the day the Central region some moisture levels might be lost out to the atmosphere making for merely some 'pretty  clouds' but not much more .  

The focus would seem to be closer toward I-95 (if not US1) and east where any sea-breeze would be running a bit parallel to the coast and up the intracoastals as it attempts to work inland to  replace the rising air lost to the atmosphere over inland peninsula but being off set by pressure gradient wind on the synoptic (larger) scale from the SW from the surface to 2000 ft AGL.  Overall forecast RAP sounds would seem to indicate hardly even a rain chance most areas. 

   
SUNDAY: Looks to be just as scant if not more so with no sea breeze in place and lock of a focus mechanism (boundary) . Some areas equally warm but high temperatures might not be quite as warm as today due to the chance of more clouds. Noting that the Storm Prediction Center at time is watching mainly the North half for a marginal 'risk' of severe ...though that would imply if a storm can even form. The risk area might go away in later forecasts.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Not going to touch on these much as surface front inches southward aligned   east-west into North Florida with time . Moisture along the boundary, possibly disturbances riding over it, and ample moisture further south could result in rain chances near it at almost any time which would disrupt the diurnal heating cycle to a small degree (or perhaps more) and in turn affect the rain type (showers vs. thunder) and  locations as well as the degree of instability during the afternoons which could be offset by antecedent cloud cover. Overall the trend has been that it will rain in many locations between Monday to Wednesday but eventually the front passes through resulting in cooling to seasonal norms if not a bit lower some mornings and several continuous dry days. 

Stronger Storms 'Could Occur" TodayMainly South of I-4

SUNDAY EVENING - CAPE CANAVERAL - CHERIE DOWN PARK

TODAY Brief post due to time limitations. Appears a developing situation in progress could at least bear watching in regard to some isolated stronger storms mainly toward the East Coast as shown in image below, not to totally count out other locations as well.

Forecast soundings over East Central show cold upper level temperatures (500mb near -10C, 700mb near 6C) and plenty of Effective Shear mainly attributed to bulk shear from the surface through the 500mb layer (which is near 20,000 feet). 

The same forecast sounding shows Jet Stream wind exceeding 100 kts   all coming together with light-moderate CAPE (instability) south of I-4 to along it from Orlando to Tampa. The stronger storms, if so synoptically  speaking 'would' occur near the east coast where low level convergence and helicity would be maximized locally due to the chance of an east coast sea breeze developing but remaining close to the coast.

Most of this all depends though on

1. moisture working far enough north at the low levels; and - 

2. clearing with plenty of afternoon heating which the RAP model is consistently indicating, at leas in regard to the temperatures. and - 

3. the indication that a mid-level (mainly 700mb) trough will cross the north half of the state, now being analyzed over Louisiana.  

Thus, the chance of strong storms anywhere is rather 'conditional' on at least these factors all coming together. Otherwise, some more generic storms might only occur or also mainly occur further south, though the 'further south only' option seems to be going out the window..as storms might even be able to occur further north than shown below though not yet indicated on short range guidance.

Latest satellite animations show that though there are plenty of clouds now, they might be clearing out later this morning based on extrapolation of the current cloud motions

FRIDAY: This day looks very quiet and very warm, with near Record high temperatures as we head into Saturday.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Very warm with westerly wind. Guidance is inconsistent on the rain chances, but both days do have a potential for some showers or storms (isolated) but will tackle that hurdle when we come to it due to the broad range of model discrepancies. At least one more short wave ridge if not to will pass over the area on Friday and again perhaps on Monday, those being low rain chance to no chance days as it stands now.

BEYOND: There is a chance that on Tuesday and/or Wednesday a look toward Severe Weather could occur, but again, we run into the same issue as noted above. Fast moving disturbances in the southern just stream flow make timing nearly impossible for them to approach Florida this far out in time. And after that time, we might see a big cool down from what we've experienced for most of the month and a longer, dry out period as well.

A Potential Exists Today For Isolated Severe or Some Strong Storms

Monday Morning Skies as Yesterday's Upper Level Energy Departs the Area

 The long heralded 'Day' (which one?) has arrived. That Day would be stronger winds aloft coupled with some colder mid level temperatures combined with bulk shear of up to 50-60 kts (speed shear) and moderate surface based instability. However, as is oft the case, there are some complicating factors that would negate this potential storm activity but all in all the 'Potential' is too great to let it go by without mention. By what degree a better chance of the severe-strong storm type will be muffed is hard to say..it good be to a high degree which would mean no strong storms at all..but for now will go with HRRR simulations implying consistently that some very small strong storms could go up east half of state (mainly) later today...but the locations have shifted around drastically with the hourly model runs. 

Main hazard appears would be strong winds to severe strength over 58 mph but hail is also possible from pea to one inch if not a bit more in a small isolated incident or two. But like the past few days, the down side to those chances is the antecedent cloud cover over the areas where upper level energy will more than likely be passing over negating their 'stormy consequences'. As I type a bolt of lightning just came down close by at 12:40 PM, but it is a very isolated and small storm.

TUESDAY Frontal boundary to sink south though rain chances remain for parts of Central at some odd time late tonight or early Tuesday. Temperatures just a bit cooler on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY Guidance is really tough on consistency in the overall synoptic scale with not too great of agreement on guidance regarding Wednesday and beyond, and has been bouncing around a lot. For now, suspect we could have more rain chances if not storms this period but when is another matter. (e.g., one model shows mostly rain chances occur either late at night or early mornings and being of the non-thunderstorm genre). For now, will let it hang until this day is over and the next one is as well.  

The same goes for the extended. There are time the GFS is implying severe weather re-emerges (or chances of it) by the weekend toward Monday..but it has been extremely inconsistent in its call.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON SEVERE STORM (NORTH of CAPE CANAVERAL)

Same Theme With Slightly Better Storm Chance (East Coast Late)

"Good Day, Sunday ..."

TODAY: Upper level winds at jet  stream and below are beginning to work in as advertised several days ago, but more so on Monday. As a result, sufficient bulk shear, some directional shear, and instability all adequate to support  strong to severe storms; but as usual, the caveats : Dry layer in the mid levels aloft  might not be able to be overcome in the absence of sufficient surface boundaries other than the east coast sea breeze combined with the west coast sea breeze collision far east side of state east of the Florida  Turnpike (except south Florida) and approaching high level cloud cover.  

Warm again though today away from the east. One difference though for today already at play from yesterday is the east coast sea breeze has already set in as of noon which was several hours earlier than yesterday but how far inland it will work is debatable.  This might help activity pop in more locations up and down the east coast than yesterday though that dry layer is might deep at time. Se Breeze might get as far as between US1 to I-95 by late afternoon and then the next caveat at play enters the picture. More late afternoon high 'blouses' aloft on the way once again (and even before that time as well). See image below

This Hi Resolution Infrared Image shows cold cloud tops in Red but you can see the milky white thin clouds heading toward most of the state within the next 2 hours. ..right during peak heating. OOPS

    
Other than the chance of storms, though very isolated (like last night toward Vero Beach mainly) but perhaps a bit more numerous today (would watch especially Brevard and Indian River Counties), it will be like yesterday in other locations... . The activity shown in the image above over the Gulf though moving ENE is expected to fall apart prior to landfall, but if it doesn't than all the models were off, so it will be interesting to see what transpires. There is currently a tornado watch in place over the panhandle but no warnings at time of posting nor were any strong storms seen on radar either. 

"Everything Under The Sun Except storms. I'm  telling ya..."  
 

MONDAY Another day almost like today but with an even greater chance of severe storms but with the same caveats at almost the same timing per latest NAM at least. Another disturbance nicely timed to roll across or near the Panhandle earlier in the day..rain chance might be higher tomorrow though regardless of the situation..it's just a matter of if it will be storms or mostly rains

TUESDAY Boundary sinks toward Central Florida and best rain chances appear will be over South Central and South Florida, but strong storms not anticipated at time.

WEDNESDAY  might be a break for the most part

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Shifting patterns put swinging forecasts and models on the run trying to keep up with active southern branch jet pattern at hand. One day down with return to southerly flow as frontal boundary lifts back north and washes out in the approach of another trough. Could be active again at least one day next week beginning on Thursday

Very Warm , Isolated Robust Storms Moving Offshore East Coast "Possible"

"Walking on Sunshine" ~  (Until later today)

TODAY: Very warm day if cloud cover from the Gulf holds off. Like the past several days timing is everything, and amazingly every morning for three days there has been activity in the Northern Gulf associated with a disturbance near or south of Pensacola rolling east. Cloud cover from them has been squelching afternoon storm activity even though we still have had some storms regardless. Today looks no different but there are some minor differences , mainly in the timing.

Chance higher cloud cover will not be as much as a negating factor today, and that is the crux or premise upon which this 'worst case' or stormiest scenario is painted upon. Outside of this assumption, conditions could end up being much more calm than noted in the graphic (see text) and temperatures this afternoon would also not be as warm (if the high clouds stream in prior to 2-4pm). The RAP and the NAM though are showing lower 90Fs today in the interior. Sea breezes shouldn't make it that far inland today so it will be the storm rolling off the coast in the presence of moderate to strong CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and lower EHI (energy helicity  along the coast due to sea breeze) that would the heads up (note beach goers), particularly if they hold off until late as the west coast sea breeze works across. 

Storms or rain showers (even small ones) can stabilize the area they occur and any where up to 20 miles or more around them after they collapse and send out some rain cooled air. If this occurs earlier in the day (before 2-3pm), the chance of late day storm in or near that location can be greatly diminished. It'll all come down to timing 

plus .....

** any well developed storm moving off   the Central east coast could become very strong to even severe if timing is just right. There might be some lingering rain or recompiling storms over Central to South Central after dark . Strong storms possible panhandle region late with early activity there as well

BEYOND: Sunday looks to be another day of rain chances also some potentially strong but the situation will be entirely different synoptically speaking as Jet Stream winds from the Southern Branch Jet around the base of an upper level trough which is moving east toward the state (though north of it) will be sweeping over head. Today looks more to be a case of isolated by possibly strong to very strong storms..tomorrow more wide spread but strength will be determined by precedent cloud cover; if too much clouds, might only be rain despite the presence of stronger winds aloft.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Last day of rain chances will be either Monday or Tuesday before a break of 2 -3 days. Next weekend sometime into next Monday could be very active but way too far out in time for other than a passing glance.

SUNSHINEY SATURDAY MORNING

Chances of Some Storms Again Today - Weekend

TODAY: Boundary that was in place yesterday has moved little and never did fully wash out. As a result, rain chances today will be in close to the same places (in general) as   yesterday with little change in the upper level pattern other than some slightly stronger winds aloft.  

However, as was the case yesterday as well, though a disturbance in the upper levels is pointed out (vorticity) by the models to approach North Central later today, it is accompanied by extensive cloud cover. Cloud cover does not bode well for surface based instability which would require a good degree of sunshine for heating in the low levels (to form thunderstorms). Regardless, based on satellite imagery trends will call for 'worst case' scenario (perhaps) and go with the graphic below indicating a potentially strong storm or two later today toward the east coast mainly if and only if the east coast sea breeze gets a boost. As of noon there is little sea breeze to speak of but it could pick up in the next two hours. Ample moisture and instability already in place means as soon as it even hints at picking up some showers could go  up just west of the coast or near it.  

Again, like the past two days, localized urban flooding might become an issue for those areas that have already received several inches and do not drain off very well...such as Osceola or parts of Orange or Seminole Counties.

The chance for Red Zone Storms (Stronger) is 'Conditional" and really not very likely
without some good sunshine. The best region for that would be more like Southeast Florida

WEEKEND -: Slightly better chance of showers or a storm or two nearer the East Coast on Saturday than previous models indicated. Reason being the short-wave ridge isn't showing to have as much of a sedating influence (sinking air) as was surmised yesterday with as much as buckle in the flow, but that could always change. Overall, still a chance of something happening near the east coast mainly on  Saturday until later model runs suggest otherwise.

 THROUGH -  MAYBE TUESDAY (?): Wild card Stud.  Could be some strong storms any of these days but as the last few days have indicated, it's a play it day by day situation since disturbances aloft are impossible to time this far out and there are too many other mitigating factors involved such us precedent cloud cover which might be in place any of these days playing the switch bait.

"Wild Card Stud" ~ Whoever Has the Bait  Gets  the Storm 

'Potentially' Active Day (by April Standards) at Hand

" Gimme   Higher  Ground "

TODAY   Fairly active rain day yesterday over and north of I-4 mainly and toward the east coast as the anticipated disturbance 'noted' in the blog post crossed that region. It appears it might have provided the impetus for   weak surface low development well south southeast of the Georgia coast with a trailing 'frontal like' boundary across Central Florida. One model indicates that boundary to lay across South Central at the surface but just above ground to be across Central Direct. Not sure it will as active north of I-4 today as it was yesterday toward the East Coast such as over Flagler and Northern Volusia, but further south toward Brevard (interior mainly) and south around the Lake Okeechobee region such as near Ft pierce within 30 miles and across the state (as shown below) might be more active. 

If activity gets an earlier start as some guidance shows, stronger storms might occur over South Central later in the day as a result of outflow boundaries from further north as a result of rain cooled air, but interior Central regions might also see a stronger storm or two briefly. The bigger 'hazard' today looks like it could be localized ponding or small scale flooding in rural areas as Volusia, Seminole, parts of Volusia, and Polk Counties (at least) have seen some good rainfall over the past few days (outside of the lightning hazard ritual).

Expect that we might see a concentrated area of  rain area  today as well (esp. after dark) in the storm decay phase, but exactly where and if so is hard to say, but Central o South Central looks the most likely at this point.

FRIDAY  looks to be another active day, but of a totally different character as the surface boundaries will have dissipated with  a   SW steering flow taking hold for activity to migrate toward the east coast  .  This will mostly be noticed therefore by beach side east coasters beach   where rain chances might be greater there on this day in some locations

(As noted several posts ago, upper level Southern Branch Jet Stream winds will be coming into play, slightly ever so much perhaps later today even which if so could keep activity going for a while tonight. Otherwise, they might be more in play tomorrow for INITIATION time as opposed to dissipation time (today - Thursday). )

BEYOND  Won't elaborate at this point , but rain chances remain through the weekend though Saturday looks to be a much slower day as short-wave ridging ripples past. Continues to appear now that Monday or Tuesday might be the last hooray, but only for perhaps 3 days when rain chances again to emerge on the threshold,  knocking. Sunday also looks like an active day.

Amalgamous April Continues - Better Chance of Storms Today (Mainly North)

TODAY: After yesterday's overall 'lull' in the action (though there was some), it appears that today has a slightly better chances at more rain coverage today over Central to Eastern Florida . Though there was some activity yesterday it was comparatively sparse to previous days. Guidance is showing it to be dry at time over all of the South Half of the state, and not sure this region will recover at all, but for perhaps this evening (if at all) though some models are breaking out rains down that way.  For now, given the consensus of what would appear to be 'low chances' South Florida will throw in a few showers/storms regardless. The best chance being along the Lake/Ocean Breeze Conflict Zone near Ft Pierce up toward nearly Vero Beach.

Otherwise, at time much of Central rests in the wake of a weak disturbance that passed overhead early this morning. There is another on the way, so timing is most everything today. 

The zone to be watched as of the noon time area shows around Volusia and Flagler County, but North Brevard could get in the act as well, especially after 5 or 6 pm toward 8pm. Some guidance implies linger rains if not even thunder as late as 11 pm tonight over parts of Central of not Eastern South Central, so we'll see.

BEYOND: Models continue to vary on how long this Amalgomous April Blend of wet season like weather meets the 'Dry Season' will continue. 

Will it be over as soon as Saturday or last into Monday (at least)?  Time will tell. For now will shoot for at least into Sunday decreasing from North to south on Monday.  A lull of a few days at least is foreseen before perhaps a repeat begins again later next week though.

Day to day  forecasts a different matter. Much will depend on the passage of upper level disturbances and the timing that they do pass over combined with sea breeze convergences.  If a disturbance passes over at the wrong time, it could actually 'dampen' (bad choice of words) the rain chances in the afternoon during prime time despite other favorable conditions due to subsidence (sinking) air that is left in their wake that would put down the kibosh to what would otherwise have been a better rain chance (put an end to; dispose of decisively) . .

Atypical April To Continue Very Warm with Rain Chances Into the Weekend

April Towers Bring  Spring Flowers

TODAY: For the blog today, big wagering guess at hand.  Most models earlier this morning in the short term showed near NO RAIN at all nearly statewide today (HRRR and RAP e.g.) with the NAM not far behind, whereas the Global Forecast System (GFS) model breaks out 'rain abundance' Central Florida later today. Not much has changed either in subsequent model runs. Instability not runny quite as high today  and steering currents are lower than yesterday. Most of the discrepancies might be coming from whether High pressure to the south will build too far north with rising 500 mb heights for if that does occur our Prime Storm Time might be snuffed out entirely. But if not, then it's all gang  - bangers once again. Suspect today might play the wild card out though, so would not be surprised to see lower coverage today, if not significantly so. But to favor consistency regardless in the wake of yesterday's active shortwave.

 If nothing more, it will be interesting to see which model fares best..the short range guidance as of 11AM or the Long Range GFS model of 8AM this morning:

Best Guess for now. South Florida date coming in is shows drying in progress which would imply 'no or few storms' and north Florida per the short term Mesoscale/RAP shows a deficient in favorable storm conditions , esp. NE Florida . This leaves Central until sea breezes kick in, then everything will change anyway in that area as well. GFS also shows the highest rainfall total by late tonight to be East Brevard County which would be most interesting if so, as right now that looks to be highly unlikely. We can see how models fared today is the gist of it

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Not going to venture too far out into the Deep End as it appears an upper level disturbance or more than one might be approaching the region for these days. Timing , location, and cloud coverage on those days will determine a lot of factors as far as what is experienced locally from benign to quite active. In the end, rain 'chances' (emphasis) remain but that's where it begins and ends for now as far as the blog post is concerned.

BEYOND: Warm temperatures continue with higher than normal rain chances which is not necessarily saying all that much since this time of year is normally in the dry season.

"Heavy' Thunderstorms Again Possible Today Especially North Central/East Half

Sunday Morning ( Cape Canaveral)

TODAY: As of 6AM appears another active thunderstorm/rain shower day at hand. Even at this early hour morning temperatures and instability are running a bit above the norm near the east coast in some locations. (not that temperatures and these recent rains are not already well out of the norm). An upper level 'disturbance' is noted on satellite imagery much as was the case two days ago in almost the same location as well at the time of day (noted in image below).

Moderate instability (CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy) , little to no capping, and cooler air aloft in the midst of upper level energy (vorticity) along with lake and sea breeze interactions (sounds almost like summer, unusually so for this time of year) in the midst of ample atmospheric moisture content (PWAT, precipitable water) should be the needing ingredients. Steering should favor interior and eastern sides (especially north of SR 60) for late day activity that might be stronger.

 Earlier in the day we could see some showers or 'weaker thunder' form as the east coast sea breezes begins its frontal march toward the west. It will be late day though as the west meets east in combination of other pre-existing boundaries that the spurious  'Pop  Drop Plop"  storms will provide the impetus for possibly stronger wind gusts and/or small hail. Storm activity could roll off the east coast mainly north of Cape Canaveral but boundary interactions could still result in 'decent thunder' further south as well (especially late).

Might have to watch for  a 'concentrated fizzle faze area' of light to moderate rain perhaps in the Volusia toward Osceola Count/Seminole Counties toward and/or after dark (which might result in localized urban 'flooding').

BEYOND: Again as noted before, it is tempting to call each day as it looks from overnight guidance, but there are too many mitigating factors at play to go beyond each day as it comes. For example, Tuesday looks to be much drier for the state overall in the wake off today's S/W (short-wave) but guidance is favoring 'north half-east side" from mainly Melbourne and North late day. So we can see if that holds true yet still tomorrow.

Rain chances/storms still possible through the weekend, as noted previously, with additions to the variables involved heading toward Thursday as stronger Southern Jet Stream winds being to enter the picture increasing upper level divergence and/or shear.