Thunder (Isolated Strong Possible) Mainly Eastern Central Florida Today

Moon Set Early Good Friday Morning

TODAY: No surprises in blog forecast post this morning; as expected timing of system passing across Florida in this pernicious (in regard to a forecaster's reputation) pattern especially in regard to timing is problematic especially in regard to cloud cover induced by storms over the eastern Gulf and this morning is no different.

Although not exactly, so far this morning doesn't look a whole lot different from yesterday morning at the same time; as a result, the forecast for storm locations and strength is nearly identical to that of yesterday with only one caveat: The Timing.   Apart from necessary instability a trigger might move across mainly parts of North Florida (North of I-4) earlier in the Day today.

Forecast reasoning is based on cold air aloft, best instability from near I-4 and South (especially South Central) with that instability advected into and/or toward East Central Florida  combined with any boundaries that might emerge southward from the north. Chance once again of more than one storm 'session' especially if activity gets going by or before the 2-3pm time frame as was observed yesterday over East Central and the Eastern South Central toward northern parts of South Florida later yesterday.

Good Friday afternoon around 4pm in Cape Canaveral looking West

Yesterday there was two 'officially reported' severe storms per the winds  (both in East Central Florida) though strong winds were reported as well in many locations associated mainly with a storm cluster that moved from the Tampa area toward the East Coast. Some more heavy rainfall reports are filtering in as well to add to any tallies from the previous day.

EASTER SUNDAY:  Again, this day will be problematic so will run with persistence. Chances of early morning light rain North Florida (mainly panhandle) and potential that a shower could 'pop' even toward Central prior to 9AM. Better chance of activity with thunder would be after 2PM and mainly North and North Central Florida into eastern parts of Central.

MONDAY: One last gasp and storm chances though overnight GFS implies perhaps Tuesday as well due to mainly sea breeze convergence activity south of I-4 southward to south Florida and mainly inland .

After Monday (and / or Tuesday) things look quiet for a few days with a drier onshore easterly to eventually southeast flow making for warmer early east coast mornings but seasonal in the afternoon with highs in upper 70Fs east coast to some lower 80Fs further inland.

BETTER storm chance re-emerge toward Friday and the April 1st -2nd time period. No foolin' ! 

Strong/Marginally Severe Storms Possible South Central Late Afternoon - Evening

Opening Son Flower - Cape Canaveral on Good Friday

TODAY: After a rain and lightning-fully active evening with numerous boundaries and cloud cover abundant at pre-dawn it will take some time for air-mass recovery (where it is possible).

Early day post might be overdone but given the latest RAP and HRRR output hard to ignore CAPE upwards to 3000 j/kg (highest since summer time) South Half of state though the latest NAM and GFS show values considerably lower. Cold air aloft coupled with increasing wind at the lower levels enough to nearly but not entirely offset the east coast sea breeze with temperatures warming into the lower- mid 80Fs where better cloud breaks are sustained for a few hours over parts of the state south of I-4 might be 'the zone of contention' later today.

"Possible Fly in the Ointment" in forecast today from any potential outflow boundary that could result from activity in the Gulf - if so - much of the forecast will be 'blown away'.

Early Morning Infrared shows two complexes of storms on either side of the state and a boundary
that raced south from North Florida now approaching Lake Okeechobee

Given what is shown in those models outside of 'other things' will ride on the higher CAPE and cold air aloft coupled with sea breeze and potential Lake Okeechobee boundaries for today 's post calling for some stronger storms, possibly low end severe and mainly closer to the east coast after 3 pm up to as late as 9 pm with other activity still possible, outside of any unforeseen events.

SATURDAY: Again a chance of stronger storms toward the east coast mainly from Brevard County to Jacksonville - though again - what is to occur on Saturday, and when,  might well be contingent upon what does (or does not) occur today. Especially watching for an foreseen possibly outflow from the mass out over the Eastern Gulf as to how that might end up working into the equation (see previous image above - infrared satellite)

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Looks more like an 'all clear' for most areas on Sunrise Easter Morning except the Western Panhandle.  

Frontal boundary that is near the FL/GA border will oscillate generally in that area into Monday where the overall greatest rainfall issues will be (that is, namely north of I-4). Rainfall could move in from North and West to Central portions of the state from late morning into early afternoon.

 Only parts of South Central and South Florida appear will continue to be in the "less chance of rainfall and storms" category through the duration of this multi-day rain chance event (some heavy) with totals possibly exceeding 4-5" before all is said and done in a few select areas. My location observed 2.50" over night and from the looks of radar last night, parts of Osceola County likely far exceeded that.

TUESDAY: Strong storms are not expected on Tuesday .  There is still a chance of some rains Central South on Monday - but by Tuesday it looks like : "The Show's Over" for several days (nearly a week). Cooler but not cold with easterly flow regime established.

Marginally Strong - Near Severe Storms Thursday - Saturday / More Rain Chances through Tuesday (at least)

Tranquil Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Only slight change from yesterday's sensible weather. Still very cool inland early this morning but mild along the immediate east coast . 

Warmest pre-sunrise temperatures are running along the Key West line of US 1 northward to near the Cape  -  though further north toward St Lucie County they follow the line of A1A and eastward - temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs to near 71F in the warmer areas but 50Fs and even some 40Fs prevail elsewhere.  

Regardless, with onshore flow working inland interior and western parts of the state will realize upper 70Fs today while east coast locations will be limited mainly to mid 70Fs with some increased patches of mainly stratocumulus clouds. 

Changes are coming after midnight from South to North though and will remain in place well through the up-coming Easter Weekend.

THURSDAY: Deeper southerly flow should usher increased atmospheric moisture from The South northward toward the Dead Central Line by late in the day coupled with increased instability and cold upper level temperatures. Oft fresh surges of moisture accompanied by instability can be harbingers of some rough weather in the spring and early fall seasons so will hold no bars on this post though the chance of strong storms looks rather slim (at time)...won't hold back from these conditions this time of year throwing some wild punches. Granted, no true forecast works on hunches alone...as...

 Thursday's forecast is 'very' touch - n- go, but some guidance has been very consistent with a 'strong to near severe chance'  of activity somewhere along the East Central Florida coast now in almost consistent manner for two days sometime mainly between 5pm - 8pm.

MORE DETAILED "***UNOFFICIAL***" INFORMATION FOR UPCOMING DAYS 

CONTAINED IN IMAGE BELOW

GOOD FRIDAY:  Friday looks to be another day with   a better chance of storms, some on the strong side with hail possible mid-late afternoon 

EASTER SUNDAY FORECAST:  

This morning will be completely dependent on whether or not an upper level disturbance is passing from west to east Easter morning for rain chances at Beach Services.  Guidance has bounced around on this for a few days now and point is, it is simply too early at this stage to say if there will be rain on sunrise Easter morning, though so far things look to be  in favor of beach-side participants, at least along the East Coast up through 9AM.

BEYOND: As noted from the captioned image above, any frontal boundary that works into Central Florida early on should lift right back north and dissolve, thus we will be in the waiting game for the next front which would be around late Monday. 

Some guidance implies that front too will never quite make it down the state which puts Florida (at least south of I-10) in the position of awaiting yet another front which might not be but well out of forecast range. 

In the more extended after Sunday or Monday it would appear (IF that is the case) that most activities would be limited toward the interior counties. 

There is a chance as times come closer that there will be some mesoscale systems that will form in the northern-eastern or eastern gulf on 'any day' after Saturday as a result of an upper level disturbances which would throw a wrench in the 'mainly afternoon and early evening' proverbial cliche for best rain chances in regard to timing (given that it is the time of year when disturbances associated with the Northern upper level trough systems can still affect Florida).

Either way, some much needed rainfall this time of year appears to be in the cards ranging from 1- 4" between Late Thursday through Monday (especially if we go into even mid week). 

That has been indicated by earlier GFS runs, even 3 days ago. Upcoming days might not all be a walk in the park either to forecast or for outside activities; but at least it will be warm with temperatures at time above seasonal norms with no cold air foreseen whatsoever. 

Even out to April Fool's Day the forecast at times has called for 'severe' mainly across parts of North Florida but again that is not so much a forecast as much as projection of potentialities.

Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Spring Comes With a Cold Greeting

TODAY: Frontal boundary near Florida/Georgia border accompanied aloft by at least one or two upper level disturbances to past from west to east during the day, the first of which is already in progress prior to sunrise over the northern Gulf near the Panhandle. 

High clouds could continue to spread across the state with best heating to occur South to South Central or perhaps to "Dead Central". Cold temperatures aloft coupled with respectable bulk shear throughout in the upper-mid levels could sustain some taller activity with accompanying strong wind gusts. 

However....

No clear cut way in which how things will evolve today though HRRR radar simulation implies some 'pre-main show' activity might actually be the Real Show, which would be South Central to South Florida. Regardless..the best chance of stronger winds might well be with whenever the first activity crosses any given area as after any first round of rain (in whatever form that might take) would stabilize the lowest levels of the atmosphere in and around that rainfall.  Either way..timing appears to be anytime over Eastern Half from 1pm onward (if not a bit sooner) and earlier North and West.

Strong storms possible with gusts toward 50 mph. Latest Mesoscale Parameter page on the Storm Prediction Center's Website is showing even severe conditions possible out in the Gulf (a supercell thunderstorm was visible on Tampa's radar very early this morning) but not sure those parameters will manage to work onto and over the peninsula itself.

It's worth 'noting' that the early A.M. Global Forecasting System (GFS) model run is not showing all that much activity today at all in regard to large rainfall totals, but that might be accounted for by fast moving activity. 

On the other hand, if stronger activity erupts toward the West coast first anvil debris might sufficiently cut down/ limit low level instability. No two models are in agreement, therefore SPC has much of the South Half of the state in a  'marginal risk' (and for other specific meteorological reasons as well).

Either way, rain chances today (and much needed at that) are in the cards through sunset in various forms from very light to strong storms (mainly as shown in the image below) ; it would be helpful to get a good dousing as brush fire season is at hand.

SUNDAY: CELESTIAL SPRING ARRIVES - GLORY BE!!

March Equinox in Cocoa Beach, Florida, USA is on
Sunday, March 20, 2016 at 12:30 AM EDT

Spring along the East Coast of U.S. begins just after midnight tonight.

Chance of cloud cover and even some light rain could persist from time to time south of I4 or even I10 through early afternoon with thunder possible parts of South Central and South as cold front progresses down the state with clearing later in the day into the overnight.

MONDAY - First FULL Day of spring: to be greeted with a cold NW wind gusting to over 25 mph with cleared skies and lows in the mid-upper 40Fs (warmer far South) coldest North and North Central Interiors. Highs in the lower to maybe mid 60Fs with breezy conditions continuing but dying off late in the day into the overnight.

TUESDAY: Though cool in the morning not nearly as cold as Monday with much less wind. Warmer by around 8 degrees in the afternoon as well as wind becomes more easterly and eventually southeasterly around 8-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: "Cold shot' is history as southeast wind greets a much warmer East Coast morning with highs in the interior near 80F and mid to upper 70Fs along the east coast.

BEYOND To THURSDAY: Chance of Thunderstorm south of I-4 once again. Will watch for stronger activity. This day is the first since nearly last year that sufficient Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is shown to be in place, and for the GFS model to show that this far out in advance over Florida (something which it seems to rarely do) it will be interesting to see if it is not underscoring just exactly how unstable it might actually be.

GOOD FRIDAY- EASTER: More rain/storms chances at play (possibly strong) but again just exactly how this will play out and the timing of said chances will remain unknown until closer to the actual dates and time. 

GFS rainfall accumulations depicted over the period from Saturday  through Monday have been up to 4" in some locations due to mainly heavy storms (not all day rains)...just as a hint of what might be coming down the pipe .

Storms Possible Saturday / Much Cooler Monday / Watching Easter Weekend

Early Morning Paddle Boarding (Tuesday)

TODAY: Frontal boundary toward the Florida/GA boarder could result in some thunderstorms, with most activity remaining near and north of I4. Considerable thin high and some mid level clouds could work across the state from time time throughout the day. Highs like the past few days tempered by the cloud cover and closer to the coast much cooler in the afternoon with east coast sea breeze. There 'might' be some showers as far south as Central per model guidance (like the short range HRRR model , but suspect this might materialize mainly as increased cloud cover)

SATURDAY: The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is outlining a marginal risk of severe storms mainly along and north of I4 to as far south as the Mim's area in North Brevard County though this might be modified to a bit further south in time so for blog purposes will refrain from including in post beyond that for now. Regardless, though there could even be a chance of a shower as far south as Central Florida today (Friday) the much better chance for rain or even thunderstorms appears will be sometime Saturday/Saturday evening south of I4 toward north of Lake Okeechobee.

SUNDAY:  Frontal boundary to drop south to Central Florida and yet further south during the first half of the day followed by much cooler NW winds - - the harbinger of much cooler air (well below 'normal') for a few days. No truly 'windy' conditions are expected with the boundary like previous fronts just a few weeks ago.

MONDAY: Much cooler with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs and lows in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs (Southeast Florida coast).

TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY: Though continued cool not AS cool with highs eventually reaching back to the mid-upper 70Fs by Wednesday afternoon as winds swing from North (Monday) around to southeast (Wednesday).

BEYOND: Watching GFS trends. Last two runs show potential for strong/severe storms anytime from around Good Friday through Easter Weekend and well into the following week. Granted given the extended time frame and discontinuity between various model outputs in regard to both timing/strength at this point only a heads up with all the Easter Morning sunrise services which would be at play on the 27th.

Mid- 80Fs Through Wednesday East Side - Chance of Showers/Thunder East Central Later Today

Seeing Warm and Sunny Days Ahead

TODAY: Remains of frontal boundary (mainly some increased moisture) with cool temperatures aloft and chance of east coast sea breeze / overcast cloud shadowing (north) merger could result in thunder mainly Volusia/Brevard/Osceola Counties (but not exclusively) later today. 

Otherwise, warmer toward the east side of the state where this part of the state has been 'missing out' on the warmer afternoon high temperatures due to cooler sea breezes blowing off upper 60Fs water temperatures. 

With a more SW to SSW wind for at least the first parts of the afternoon they will be able to rise nicely into the low - mid 80Fs.

BEYOND: Monday - Thursday

Little change in the wind fields at the surface but decreasing moisture will reduce rain chances to near zero except maybe some showers South Central/South on Monday. Otherwise, continued warm with morning lows in the mid-upper 60Fs and highs in mid 80Fs though wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 80Fs interior toward the east side almost anywhere.

Next rain chance though slim might be Thursday as moisture begins to increase. Temperatures cool off by Friday as frontal boundary washes out across 'Central Somewhere'. So far thunderstorms do not look to be in the equation , as of now, with that boundary though cloud cover and shower chances do work in (Friday and/or Saturday especially).

Few Rain Chances - Temperatures At to Above Normal Toward Mid - March

TODAY- WEEKEND: A frontal boundary will be passing down the state today from north to south crossing Central Florida near sunset. Warm today even with some high clouds though not as warm as it would've been otherwise. Highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs though some mid-80Fs possible South Central regions . No rain forecast with the front . Wind to switch to NW with frontal passage and become more northerly overnight.

Though it will be a bit cooler Thursday morning another rapid - fire system passing well to the north will lift what is left of the boundary back to the north with more southerly winds entering the picture by Thursday afternoon already! Warm again then as a result. The next front then approaches Thursday evening early Friday with more cloud cover and maybe a spritz  north of Central mainly. All in all - rain chances remain negligible to non-existent other than a quick light shot but it looks to be rather remote. 

 Though some mornings will be a bit cooler than others, for the most part the immediate coast will receive in flux of warmer air from over the nearby waters (water temperatures off the Cape are running around 68F ..)..but warmer yet still near-shore from West Palm and South. 

Net Result: Apart from the above stated, no rain chances through next Wednesday as stout high pressure to the north of Florida results in easterly wind gradually becoming more Southeast and increasing a bit as it gradually moves east of the mid-Atlantic region. 

Mornings could well be in the mid-upper 60Fs (above normal) from Sunday on through late week next week at least.

The next storm system is shown to approach around the March 12th time frame with varying results depending on the extended range model runs - all in all - it is pointless to project that far out given the lack of consistency.   

Looks like a big severe weather event will be in the wings for people from the Eastern Southern Plains though into parts of the Southeast States (at least those areas) but what affects will occur most anywhere, especially Florida, will remain unsaid.

The only thing that looks most certain is the lack of any cold air intrusions whatsoever for quite some time.

Showers Today - Storms Some Strong/Severe Possible Wednesday Before Cold Air Moves In

TUESDAY MORNING , CAPE CANAVERAL FL

TODAY: Weak impulse has been moving north and east from far SW Florida since before day break. Plenty of cloud cover and some showers associated with this activity as can be seen below. 

Expect that at least in part some of this activity will approach Central and East Florida by mid-afternoon. Showers could begin to pop up randomly almost any where in isolated fashion. At this point thunder not really anticipated but it is possible mainly just west of I-95 toward US1 from Brevard County and north but the main thrust will be showers.  Blog will run 'conservative' on the thunder chances today not to so it is not possible though in an even broader area than shown below.

Warm today with highs in the upper 70Fs through lower 80Fs. Might be a mid-80F but cloud cover would mitigate that potential.

WEDNESDAY: Over night tonight there is a threat of Severe Weather in The Florida Panhandle mainly from near Tallahassee and west. Latest HRRR suggests the chance of a Significant Tornado in this area or at least at good 'chance' of severe weather.

By well after midnight toward mid-morning activity associated with the front might dwindle quite a bit but then begin to ramp up again mid-late morning. Wind SW and gusty and quite warm especially from I-4 and south with highs in the mid 80Fs possible.T

Though any storm chances at time actually have been showing per NAM guidance to be rather slim to none, the wind/temperature atmospheric profiles suggest that any storm that can form could be at least marginally severe toward severe almost anywhere. The 'red risk' zone is chosen as this is the region of best 'stacked wind' profiles from the low to upper atmospheric levels.

Taking the 'worst case scenario' little change was made from yesterday's post . Again, there is always the chance that there will be very little activity as most of the energy with the associated low pressure system will have lifted well north of Florida heading toward the Northeast States.

As noted previously, if possible might want to watch news tonight but more so have a local channel ready for live coverage should conditions warrant after 11AM tomorrow since chances are things could change quite a bit around mid-morning tomorrow any way in regard to what latest and later day models will show.

Most rain chances will end before dark Central Florida and more likely by around 4:30PM on Wednesday.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much colder and breezy especially Thursday with wind gradually tapering of with each day. 

Coldest morning appears will be Saturday morning still mainly iinland north of I4 though many areas will experience lower-mid 40Fs but upper 40Fs closer to the Central Florida East Coast and then further south. 

Gradual warm up Sunday afternoon toward upper 60Fs to near 70F but other days will struggle to get much above 65F if even that. 

One or two days might barely eke out 60F but again, not sure the GFS model can be trusted in the high temperature forecast given the time of year as the sun angle is increasing bit by bit every day and days are getting longer noticeably.

MONDAY - MIDWEEK: Another storm system approaching toward the 3RD, and so far not looking to be a ' sig.' weather maker though given little change in the large scale synoptic scale 'rhythms' would not be surprised to see at least 2 more severe weather threats in the next 2 weeks.

Risk Of Marginally - Severe Storms North/Central Wednesday - Much Cooler for Several Days

Sunrise , Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Warming and moistening trend continues through Wednesday afternoon with highs inland toward 80F today but closer to mid-upper 70Fs right at the beaches. Southeast - South wind this afternoon with increasing moisture mainly toward the east side of the state south of I-4. Chance of a light sprinkle from Southwest Florida toward the east coast of Brevard/Indian River much later today if not toward mid-evening (or merely increased cloud cover).

TUESDAY: Warmer with highs in many areas in the upper 70Fs - low 80Fs. Low pressure forming over SW Texas will begin to strengthen and RAPIDLY at that in the next 24-72 hours as it moves east then NE-NNE near the Appalachian chain bringing the whole gamut of weather variables with it along and ahead of it's trek up and down the eastern seaboard and the Smoky Mountains all the way up to Maine and back west toward the Great Lakes Region. This low pressure system is going to be HUGE.

For Florida, chance of showers and 'maybe' a thunderstorm toward Brevard/Volusia County late in the date due to convergence along the east coast us upper level winds begin to increase significantly with cold air aloft, though the surface based instability is so far forecast to be quite meager. 

Better chance of thunder might end up being offshore, but regardless even a good shower could contain surprisingly gusty winds in and near such activity some time after 2-3PM toward dark if they are able to materialize. The bigger story though will be warm temperatures even if cloud cover is present.

WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs in lower - mid 80Fs depending on cloud cover with a very breezy SW wind. 

Frontal boundary from attendant CYCLO-BOMBING low pressure system it now appears (rapid decrease in central pressure) will move across the state from early day through mid-late afternoon.

 Instability on the GFS model guidance is not shown to be but meager but much more per the NAM. Given the wind fields and temperatures aloft will highlight regions between the purple lines as having a chance of severe wind gusts (or more) with the better chance near to north of I-4. Have included south of I-4 as suspect better instability might be found there given the later point in time of day and storms 'might' be moving in as well as that winds are sufficient aloft for such type of activity. 

Any rainfall totals should be low and so far looking at less than an inch of even less than 1/2" due to quick storm motion. 

SPC  (The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK) and local NWS Offices are monitoring the situation and local news stations I suspect will begin to CHIME IN by early afternoon Wednesday if not sooner if conditions warrant. 
(for the previous event Channel 7 , WFTV in Orlando, had good coverage as did Channel 13).

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much cooler to cold mornings.

 Friday and Saturday mornings look to be the coldest with lows in the 40Fs and maybe some upper 30Fs inland/north with afternoons barely eking out 60F though the GFS might be over-estimating how cold the afternoons will be given the sun angle is becoming increasingly higher and days are getting longer. 

Saturday now looks to be the overall coldest day as at least one if not two additional frontal boundaries could transparently move through with no effects other than to re-enforce the lower temperature regime that will be put in place for several days. 

Cat on a Concrete Path

This upcoming system is the Second of a kind (from the one last week) and thoughts are now we might be seeing another one rearing it's stormy thunderheads in about a week after this one; though too soon to say,  the trend seems to be on and they often come in threes. 

Looking at the latest GFS now coming out as I type, indeed, it is showing another system late next Wednesday and/or Thursday time frame. 

Otherwise, all should be nearly dry after Wednesday afternoon for quite a number of days but very cool to cold until Sunday afternoon.

Risk of Late Day Shower Monday/Tuesday - Strong/Marginally Severe Wednesday

"Portuguese Man-o-War Season Appears to be in Bloom Along the East Coast "

TODAY- MONDAY: Light wind becomes progressively more southerly with time with cool mornings and normal temperatures in the 70Fs range. Slight chance of a very isolated shower or only an increase in late day cloud coverage on Monday. There is a very stealthy dry layer from about 700mb - 500 mb above the ground which will take quite a bit of time to fill in with sufficient moisture.

TUESDAY: Frontal boundary and evolving  "cyclobomb' low pressure system might be to evolve in the Deep South to head Northeast in coming days which will be a headline maker in regard to who will or won't receive snow from the system. 

Further south a cold front will stretch  into the Gulf of Mexico and chances are a warm front of sorts will lift  north by Tuesday afternoon from south to north across Florida putting the state squarely in the 'warm sector' south of the boundary. 

There is a chance on this day (with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs) that a late afternoon to early evening shower or even some thunder might occur this day mainly Brevard County and south and then much further north as well toward the Panhandle region and along I-10 to the east.

WEDNESDAY: Chance as of latest two model runs and as noted in the previous post some time ago of strong to marginally severe storms. 

Worth watching though in case it appears that perhaps even a better chance of severe storms might evolve. 

Chances are all news stations will start to herald the alert mode in the next 48 hours though if the trend in the model output continues on its current trend.

 Unlike the last events of yore, this time it will be occurring (or not occurring if that ends up being the case)..in daylight hours to near or after sunset. More to tell along those lines come Monday and Tuesday though.

It was on February 22- 23RD 1998 that the worst tornado outbreak in Central Florida history occurred during the overnight hours.

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Wave goodbye to a supposed early 'spring' as temperatures to fall back into winter mode for a few days. 

Not at all unusual this time of year as the sun angle is higher and higher in the sky but the colder and dense area further north refuses to find it's final resting place back around the poles for another 2 1/2 months at least . 

Especially given what appears to be a persist deep upper trough over Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. associated with what is referred to as a Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (or -NAO) . El Nino southern jet streak still soaring overhead the Deep South and at times Florida is to continue which helps to up the ante on severe threats. 

(Side Bar: Forecasts indicate El Nino will be long gone by the time June rolls around if not by August).

***Much colder Thursday morning and afternoon and WINDY Thursday, but especially Friday through Saturday mid morning is when the 'coldest' of air will find its way in after a secondary frontal boundary slices through.

Gradual  warm up by SUNDAY and especially next Monday.

Potential For Strong to Severe Storms Will Exist After 8PM , Warm on Tuesday

   "Fillmore"

TODAY-OVERNIGHT: There will be the potential for strong to even severe storms late tonight through around 4-5AM Tuesday morning though location of such storms and timing is very difficult at time to determine due to   model run inconsistencies and little agreement between different models, notwithstanding uncertainty in a wide variety of ways. 

All guidance does bring a number of factors into the play in the wind fields with very cold air aloft such as near -15C at 500mb (20000ft) which is unusual for Central Florida almost any time of year. Shearing wind profiles both in direction and speed combined with ample (but barely ample) instability (which is a big factor that might reduce the severe chance to near zero) is a big question as is any real drive (reason) for discrete storm formation.

The more 'organized' part of the pattern set up passes across the Panhandle region earlier on in the form of a broken sort of squall line which might die off as it gets toward Tallahassee region in the early evening hours.

FURTHER SOUTH: Chance of showers and who knows, maybe a thunder across parts of mainly South Central to Central Florida moving up and out from the south to southwest then offshore, possibly as soon as mid afternoon up through near sunset.

NOTE: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
MIGHT NEED TO WATCH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTH OF FT. LAUDERDALE
AS WELL AS NEAR TH PORT CHARLOTTE AREA

THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS though is after the 10PM through around 4AM though this could change. There is a chance that few of any areas will even get severe weather or, in fact, any rain at all. Chances are things will become a bit more clear by mid-late afternoon what the evening and over-night have to bring, so s would advise keeping at least one ear leaning toward local news channels either during the dinner or bed times hours.

TUESDAY: Regardless of what does or does not occur late today or tonight, there is agreement that the 'All Clear' can be heralded before sunrise with clearing conditions probably even before sunrise. Tuesday looks to be a warm one with a cold front still to come toward sunset for Central Florida and then the remainder of the state after dark. Highs could reach mid-upper 70Fs many areas, even some lower 80Fs in a few locations contingent upon cloud coverage.

BEYOND: Though a front will be going through there is not a big temperature change behind it. Even that has been going up and down in the forecasts but best bet for now will be to settle on temperatures running near climatological norms...and considering that lately the CLIMATE has been no where close to LOGICAL lately for Florida (cold temperature wise) any upward climb in the mercury would be warmly welcomed (at least for those who do not prefer colder / cool weather).

There is another front or two to come in the next 8 days but so far (fingers crossed) none of them have that much of a 'shock value' to them in the temperatures. After the recent thread of days and then the other string of them prior, not much will be a cold shock any more. Almost no where to go but up from here on out .

ON THE OTHER HAND: Next POTENTIAL THREAT for SEVERE WEATHER is being shown to be around the 23-25th time frame. That chance showed up a while back..disappeared and has now re-appeared with fairly good consistency over the past 24 hours but it's still nearly 8 -10 days out in time and much can change. Given what I'm seeing now..it is at least worth noting for the time being as the factors that could eventually come into play (if so) would be all too sufficient for severe weather for  someone in the Southeast states and/or along the Gulf Coast, including Florida.

Cool/Windy vs Cold/Breezy Seesaw Pattern Through Wednesday - Rain Chances Today

TODAY: Very sketchy in the details today which will make or break areas in the rain chance (or rainfall totals) arena mainly fast East Central and Southward into interior portions thereof. 

Pre-sunrise temperatures across the state are running along an   anomaly of cooler air in a region such as say interior Dade County than the A1A strip of Brevard County as can be seen in the graphic below. Remember those warmer regions as those might well be where the better chances of rainfall (especially after 5PM will begin later today) might occur toward and after dark.

State Temperatures (at 2 meters AGL) at 5AM show  warmer going from west to East as
opposed to North to South

LATER TODAY: Wind should die down some after sunrise as a low pressure area  forms along the inverted trough exemplified by the temperature and wind profiles shown above. Exactly where and when this will turn into a closed circulation will affect who sees measurable rains today (if any) and who does not. 

It is also noted that where it is warmest now at sunrise will also be the warmest locations all day today for the most part, mainly from east of Orlando and south to around all of South Florida south of The Big Lake, progressively cooler toward the west coast even this afternoon.  

From the west, mid-level low pressure system moving east and north will usher in a vigorous upper level wind field pattern with more than sufficient Bulk Shear and even  helicity (north half) for severe storms; however, instability will be close to non-existent so no concern in those regards. 

On the other hand, with such wind energy aloft coincident with the low forming 'somewhere' along to just east of the South Half of the State, rain chances should increase as those winds aloft move over the state late today into early through late evening. 

Could hear some thunder mainly east of Ft Pierce and South out toward the Bahamas and maybe a rumble aloft as far north as off shore Cape Canaveral, but it will be the "rain chances on the increase" that is primary element for today's composition. 

Totals could vary from none to as much as 1/2" or more depending on where the low sets up later today by the time all is said and done (before sunrise Sunday).

SAMPLE ONLY of what might evolve by early evening.
Noting best chance for measurable rainfall might also be where it is
generally warmest at sunrise this morning . Yellow bounds
indicate where rain fall is also possible.
Best chance though timing wise will be after 5pm - 1AM.

Otherwise, apart from the rain chance today,  the  theme through Wednesday will be cooler to colder temperatures and breezy to down right windy at times through Wednesday.

SUNDAY: Rain chances exit well east before sunrise with cold air advection in full throttle with gusting morning and afternoon wind from the Northwest. 

Mixing  with cold air advection and cleared skies might make for gusts above 25 mph for a time with highs barely eking out of the lower - mid 50F's on Sunday; dying off a bit Sunday night toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: Will watch for a 'cold socket' across Central Florida interior. Wind lighter by far   interior but not so much along the immediate east coast as the strengthening low pressure now far from the state lifts up the U.S. east coast (off shore). Some guidance has been showing upper 30Fs into South Central Florida away from the coasts but warmer than that to the north. Example would be colder inland of Stuart than inland of Daytona Beach.

Another front will be on the way however, overnight Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Breezy to windy at times during the day after a cool start but not quite as cold as Monday morning with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs . 

Wind from the west if not even SW for a time. No rain chances though and probably not many clouds but for a brief period (maybe overnight).  Front to move across the state swiftly after dark.

WEDNESDAY: Monday was the first colder morning, Wednesday will be the next colder morning with the frontal passage going on while most sleep - a bit breezy at that as well. Highs lower than on Tuesday as a result, closer to the way it will be on Sunday.

Pod of Pelicans Soars Past During a Dramatic Florida Sunrise  

THURSDAY-BEYOND: The windy and very cool to a bit cold seesaw shenanigans end Thursday morning as the last of the family of fronts will have cleared the area. 

Slowly moderating temperatures into the weekend with easterly flow becoming established. 

Forecasts will likely be speaking of lows in the lower - mid 50Fs (mainly inland) and highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs for a number of days to follow, though with the prolonged onshore flow and vertical depth of it over time , showers will come back into the picture by Monday or Tuesday (but light and low topped) , maybe even  for a number of days ..or perhaps it will amount only to decks of stratocumulus clouds. Too far out in time to know.

No severe weather or even a cold fronts for that matter seen for a decent stretch of time,  maybe a good 4 days at least from Thursday through the weekend and into the beginning of the following week.

Cool, Cold, and Colder into All of Next Week

Wednesday Surprise Sunrise

TODAY: Not much to really be said today through the upcoming week once we squeegee past today.

Cold front on the slide through the Panhandle this morning producing rain and some thunder near the Gulf Coast. The boundary will slide northeast-ward as it progressively sinkingly progresses east and south with time slowly but surely toward Central Florida late this evening.

Chance of rain showers, lighter but lingering rain, and some thunder possibly even with a few stronger wind gusts this afternoon to early evening North and parts of North Central. 

This graphic might even be generous though might need to watch the Dead Central Region for a trend per the previous blog post the other day for a better thunder chance. Only change this post was to shift the 'thunder chance' a bit further north though that might have been hasty. It all depends on how quickly the boundary reaches Central. The slower it is the less chance of Thunder near the Dead Central demarcation zone.

 

BEYOND: Nothing much to say. As noted in previous post there was a chance that another low pressure area could end up forming near the East Coast of Florida and move away which would have little effect, or it would form well to the west of the State which could result in a Severe Weather chance. 

The former option over the past 48 hours has been winning out so will ride with no chance of Severe Weather come late Saturday or Sunday though there will be a period of increased cloud cover and maybe some light rains.

The bigger story through the upcoming week beginning  Friday morning will be 

A. Cool to even rather Cold Temperatures;
B.  at times combined with Wind

After the boundary's passage the cooler air will mostly work in well toward Sunrise and mid Morning Friday making for a very breezy and very cool day considering recent days like yesterday tying some record high temperatures in a few locations. 

Though not 'real cold' it will be quite cool. Another 'low' to form near South Florida but extremely weak in nature could create another shower chance sometime over the weekend but the bigger storm will be as it strengthens over the Gulf Stream waters while pulling away toward the northeast.  

Circulation behind it plus high pressure building in from the west will draw colder air south, down, and across  the peninsula of Florida in repeated various modes in coming days.

SUNDAY MORNING  for example will be the real first day of such but the theme continues as consecutive 'reinforcements' in the form of 'short -wave troughs come across from time time only to further exasperate the situation.

By perhaps Wednesday - Friday mornings we might be hearing talks of freeze warning for parts of North Central Florida or at least wind chill advisories. 

Some days will never see 60F, but other days will see lower to maybe mid 60Fs with a west wind which might be refreshing, especially when keeping in mind that within another month the consecutive days of cold to even very cool weather will be drawing to a close . 

Overall,   westerly to NW winds more than anything else after Sunday, dry and cool to even cold a few days. 

No point in saying much more than the change out from the described should begin sometime next weekend.