Afternoon Update Concerning Mid-Afternoon through Early this Evening

For those in the far eastern reaches of Florida this afternoon. An area of mostly showers and some lightning strikes has been progressing slowly eastward this afternoon from its point of origin along the west coast since early this morning. This area is being proceeded by an area roughly along and west of I-95 from Eastern Orange County southward toward Okeechobee County of increasingly instability with surface based CAPE from 2500-4000J/kG and lifted index of –4 to –7. This would quantify the air mass ahead of this line of showers as very unstable.

 

There is also two spots of strong low –level lapse rates toward Southern Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie Counties. Steering winds this afternoon are toward the NNE, and low level helicity is increasing along I-95 toward the Indian River corridor as Southerly winds blow northward and up the intracoastals.

 

There is becoming a small threat for waterspouts with activity later this afternoon along these waterways, should the activity manage to hold together upon reaching the  pseudo sea breeze/synoptic scale gradient flow and be forced on through it. It is too hard to determine if that will be the case today. Just keep your eyes pealed primarily for some possible lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 35-40mph in one or two strong storms, especially if it is on the approach after 4:00pm today. We can see in the image the NONSUPTOR values.

 

nonsuptor  = non supercell tornado. This is not to mean that it is even remotely close that mariners should watch for waterspouts today. There has not been any official notification through the National Weather Service concerning that prospect, but it does seem to be becoming that there is the chance considering how these values have been increasing the past two hours.