Phase III of Florida's Over Saturated & Under Stimulated Atmosphere

THE BIG PICTURE: UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FLORIDA, SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DEEP SOUTH WITH TRIGGERING IMPULSES, WEAK STORM STEERING SOUTH FLORIDA AND AMPLE SW TO NE STEERING CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. READ CAPTIONS AND SEE MORE  FOR FINER DETAILS BELOW

Phase III of the Saturated Saga continues today while precipitable water values (PWAT air) are equal to or exceed 2.00". Moisture isn't everything though as was noted yesterday for rain chances everywhere , but without a supporting atmosphere which provides the correct thermal profile. Today looks a lot like yesterday's ended up with. Namely, a bit of a dry layer just above the surface with most of the super saturation going on well aloft.


Best chances for heavy rain fall today will be for those near the Big Bend, Southeast Coast, near Lake Okeechobee, and lastly near the Central Interior favoring the east side after 2-3pm until dark. Some rainstorms could 'train' if the set up is just right, but where exactly that would happen is nearly impossible to determine at this time of day, if ever, until it pulls out of station on the last one out of town (later in the day).


As we can see below and the top image, anticyclonic tendencies are underway throughout the atmosphere today as the inverted trough/tropical wave has departed. Despite our high PWAT air, dewpoint depressions in the important 925-750mb layer (which is about 2000- 8000 ft over head) are fairly large (in other words, it's actually kind of dry in that part of the atmosphere just overhead, which includes the cumulus cloud layer necessary for rainstorm formation). That fact, combined with convective inhibition over eastern parts of Florida this morning combine to read: "Zero rain chances for many areas until early-mid afternoon, as noted below in this graphic, doe this area:

 However, the atmosphere across the state is sufficiently unstable (and thinking is that East Florida will be come less capped with time and might end up the most unstable 

by mid-afternoon after early showers other places act to stabilize the favored areas 

currently in place early today. There could even by some thunderstorm activity where stronger boundary layer convergences are set up. Heaviest rainfall will be where this occurs. (either resulting in a heavy thunderstorm or training of heavy rain storms). 

***IMPORTANT: If the dry layer in place this morning is not overcome, a rainfall 

chance in many places will go to ZERO or nearly so. Will this happen over most of the state today? Or, could it occur over just South Florida, Central, or North Florida? 

Every model has a different solution. Maybe all locations will get some rain when all issaid and done by 8pm tonight, if only a mere trace.  

So it will be proclaimed: 

Travel by flip-flops. "Walk tall and carry a big canoe" ( just in case). 
"Don't forget the Life-Savers". A location in North Florida received 3 inches in one 
hour yesterday.

When all is said an done, here's one guess in regard to where the best chances of rain are, and possibly a thunderstorm or three. Results can vary as indicated by the manufacturer.

NOTE ABOUT THIS IMAGE: The bounds toward the East side are not meant to appear as 'exclusive' to other locations on the West half of the state. That area holds just as much of a chance for rain as any other. This is to show mainly mid-afternoon to early evening activity (above), but any time - day or night- is 'game for rain' in the next 48 hours

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery  - Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) 

That's a mouthful.  Fear not. It's not complicated.  In short, I was watching this imagery this 

imagery earlier in the morning in time lapse to monitor the trends coming toward Florida over the 

Atlantic. Could be some drier air on the way in about 6-8 days based on the trends. And...

FUTURE: Every 2-3 days will be a different variation of the same theme. Each theme will carry a 

different demeanor in regard to when, where, and how hard it could rain (if it does, that is). This 

current trend now seems to be undergoing a change already. One that might favor late night toward early morning rain along the East Central Coast at 'surprising times', with the GFS actually adding

 up some good rainfall totals from near Vero toward Ormond Beach going into Tuesday, 

mostly due to over night rains. We shall see. Looks too odd  to lay the bucks down on that 

wager. I'm playing those cards  ala   Lady G..."Poker Faced".

And lastly, there's the stationary boundary shown in the top image that I've alluded to in several 

posts. It is now forecast to drop into Florida around next Saturday or Sunday with a brief period of 

enhanced rainfall.

BUT, heaven forbid, it passes through the state as a BACKDOOR COLD 

FRONT IN JULY?!! Shudder. Backdoor cold fronts are the most benign, boring weather monsters 

in existence in these parts even in the winter. So why is one being forecast for in July? 

Not so strange. We had a stationary front over Central Florida last summer that resulted in tons of 

moisture but very little rain (only clouds). If this front presses through (it actually is just the leading 

edge of high pressure working in from the north) MIMIC-TPW timing translates to much drier air 

working in behind it for a good 3 days at least. Could be Lidsville in Florida in the weather 

department  NEXT Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. But a lot can change. So far, it does not look like our pal SAL will not follow within the drier air (SAL - SAHARAN AIR LAYER, often creates very hazy skies).  'Cast a spell for rain, Witchiepoo!" (had to have seen the early 70s show to get the pun, but not "That 70s Show").

Witchiepoo Consults Her Weather Charts for the Correct Spell