Quite Warm, Chance of Thunderstorms By Mid-Late Week

In Reference to the 'normal' summer wet season

THIS WEEK: Short post today. Very warm and stuffy out under high pressure aloft. A bit on the dry side, which is in reference to the above image. highs in the low-mid 90Fs wide spread, with the lower humidity (although gradually increasing)..making heat indexes less than 'impossible' relatively speaking.


Weather from yesterday through Tuesday to be a bit unlike summer, and more like an intermittent prelude to the onset of the wet season, more like mid-May to late-May-ish.  The other morning, Vero recorded a record low of 68F, whereas in Canaveral the porch read 67F, identical to that of the likes of a temperature which heralds the end of summer only by personal observation for this area, rather than the onset of the wet season.  Given the strange circumstances and length of time that Debby was in the area, some major realignments are in order now. These will be in progress through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with the best chance of an inland shower or two due to sea breeze convergence, and a thunderstorm of two along the Florida SW Coast.


High pressure in the mid-levels will begin to erode due to an onslaught of troughs running across the Ohio Valley region, eventually to the point that a new mid-level ridge axis will form across South Florida if not further south. The result will be light SW flow aloft accompanied by a 'hard to determine at this point' east coast sea breeze. The first more pronounced day for thunderstorms along I-4 and into the South will be July 4th, more so the following two days.


Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will be sinking south toward the north end of the state across the Deep South accompanied by its moisture convergence boundary, simultaneously, moisture from the tropics will finally work its was east toward the state. Exactly which feed of moisture will arrive first to North Central is difficult to say at this point due to the time in the future yet still. Either way, after Friday with possible storms mainly along the Central Dividing Line and south, possibly along I-4 toward Daytona...all things change as to where the better rain chances will be. Overnight GFS shows a combination of both worlds, or at least a hint of such, heralding a return to normalcy, give or take the direction storm motions will be makes all the difference in the world in regard to who is affected and who is not.


In short, Debby Stole our wet season, although most definitely, some would beg to differ...those flooded out. However, that was not 'wet season' rains.. climatology speaking in it's purest form.

Debby Should Be "Doing It" Today thru Wednesday

Latest Mesoscale Analysis at 300mb (jet stream) Shows upper low in western Gulf
Continues. It seems likely it was this feature that got the ECMWF model off target
from the onset as relayed several posts ago . Possible future track of Debby (center not important)

TODAY: Debby is appearing quite stationary per first glimpses of visible satellite imagery. It is interesting that short term model indicates the center will come nearly ashore by noontime, only to relocate back offshore once again near to just south of Cedar Key, Florida. Either way, seems not to make much of a difference where the Center is located in regard to surface winds, since the strongest winds appear to be driven by the mid-level low pressure feature down to 2000 ft above ground.  The strongest winds this hour are not near the storm but rather toward the Keys and along SW Florida coastal areas and East Central Coastal areas. Rain showers are on the way right now as I type, which could contain wind gusts in the 40-55mph range. This will be the case most the day off and on as vort lobes rotate through, but more on this below. However infrequent that might be.

Latest radar likely well outdated by the time this post even comes out. Yellow lines
show 'most likelihood' for activity through at least mid-afternoon outside of the rains toward NE Florida related in another fashion to the storm. The only rain band that is most linked directly to Debby appears is along the West Coast north of Tampa

 TODAY: Rain-bands and showers on the move early on today. With quick motion and some/few cloud breaks and considering Debby has been behaving in a diurnal fashion for a few days now, expect there could be more moving in and 'popping in and out' rather quickly in increasing fashion after 10AM through mid-afternoon.  Wind profiles do not really support tornadoes today, not to say it is not impossible. Also must keep in mind that any variation in the configuration of the surface to mid-level features could change everything. So , it is 'possible' a tornado watch will be required by mid-late morning through early afternoon, but the primary concern would be strong wind gusts and straight-line winds due to the stronger winds just above the deck through the mid-levels being dragged to the surface in and near the rain storms. This sort of activity may or may not be handled on a case-by-case basis by the National Weather Service Offices as needed.


DEBBY: Models are coming into closer agreement with the future track of the storm. Bear in mind, as Debby moves into the coast much of the surface circulation up toward 2000 ft could start to weaken and become more broad, closely matching that of the mid-levels. In doing so, the stronger winds will NOT be near the center but south of it. Thus, the winds could continue, possibly more gusty tomorrow from Southern Volusia County toward Indian River through St. Lucie Counties.  The storm's timing is fairly close between guidance, with an exit off the east coast toward Wednesday evening. Debbie will be dragging a low level trough along its SW Flank, and this along with complex variables closer to the center will be the prime areas of interest for additional rainfall.  The GFS has been very good with this storm all along, as was favored in these posts when reading between the lines. It seems the ECMWF was picking up on the upper level low noted in that top image as had been noted. But, never can tell for sure. In any case, the two models are now in agreement with bringing the 850mb low center in toward Brooksville and exiting off the east coast somewhere between Ormond Beach and Oak Hill. A surface circulation will be in there as well which could exist within those bounds.

Graphic devised at 6AM, Tuesday, June 26th  See details below. It's not as complicated as it might first appear

DESCRIPTION OF GRAPHIC: Red lines show potential future track. This is inline with the GFS plots from several days ago. (see image further down)


RED LINES: Possible future track of surface to mid-level center
PURPLE: Chance of most concentrated activity today outside of the rains further north caused by indirectly related synoptic scale features. This zone 'might' require a tornado watch.
YELLOW: Bounds for best chances of quick moving squally like periods. Note, there could be very long breaks between periods of rain today, and some areas will receive very little rain if any.
GREEN: Further South, there remains a chance of similar activity today, but believe the chance of spin ups will be much less due to winds being more unidirectional with height further from the surface to mid-level circulations


**NOTE: As always, monitor TV or weather radio or other media outlooks from time to time, especially before heading out somewhere today to remain abreast of short-term conditions..and be alert for potential watches and warnings which could be forthcoming. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather related activity due to winds and a 2% Tornado risk, which is quite small. Not to say though, that it only takes 1 in the wrong place (such as one's house) to make all the difference. I see on radar right now a heavier cell which appears to be heading this way, and even that is not being warned for. Not really expecting much lightning today. BUT, any storm which is producing thunder, even if not frequent, will need to be taken with a serious conviction. It will take the taller storms today to really get rotation going outside of other factors to complex to go into detail over in a blog post.

THIS IMAGE IS FROM JUNE 22nd. Note the lavender arrows and question mark concerning possible future course. At this time , the forecast had been (officially) looking toward Texas

 Now, as of this hour, we see the new Official Forecast Track and zone of uncertainty.

Latest outlook will likely narrow down, this is close to what as a mere blog poster 'seems reasonable', although we could probably take off a good 75 miles at least from the north side of the cone and 30 miles from the south side of the cone.

WEDNESDAY: So far the heaviest rains with Debby could occur from Brevard through Indian River Counties on this day, under the one prerequisite. One teeny tiny factor..that being, that indeed Debby actually takes the forecast track. The GFS took a big jump overnight in moving the storm out when the previous run had Debby loitering around for several more days, but other models agree on the new timing issue. 


That is the best we can do at this point. Should Debby not get hinged up closely enough with the trough to the north, it's an entirely different ball game. Note also the graphic above. It is possible Debbie might work a little south today into tonight, if not while crossing the state somewhere along the line. But as noted, the center really is not the most important factor. The southern edge of the cone is possible where the strongest winds will occur on Wednesday, after-all, and maybe so even the rains to fall will be greater as well with time going through tonight into the earlier periods of the day (where they would be further north) , due to the trough hanging back behind the storm.


BEYOND: So far, it is looking quite dry. The official forecast is calling for thunderstorms each day toward the weekend, but I'm not seeing it yet. There will be sinking motions behind the storm, so it will take a good two days for things to get realigned. Warm toward the east coast with highs in the low-mid 90Fs are possible by Friday (if Debby moves out as currently surmised);   high pressure in the mid-levels could lag and suppress rainfall altogether except toward South Florida until the weekend. Even so, any activity appears will be restricted to late day interior sea breeze collisions with little steering.

Debby's Destiny - Tornado Threat All Day Possible, Future Track New Story

Debby At a Stand Still. Details of graphic below.

TORNADO REPORTS

TODAY: No point really in awaiting for a newer model run to come in at this point given the current circumstances that seem 'could' unfold. In the next day or two.  Florida has been experiencing a tornado outbreak of sorts. One was reported locally near Port St. John just before midnight from a storm that originated down in Okeechobee county hours before. These (some of them ) storms are long-tracking, but the tornadoes not so much so.  Numerous videos and images, mostly from video, are now available on YouTube, but cannot post them here for anonymity sank of those who captured the footage. But videos can be searched   (YouTube) by searching there on "Florida tornado 2012 June Debby". Since Debby's Future Track continues to remain uncertain:

1140 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW PORT SAINT JOHN   28.51N 80.87W   
06/24/2012                   BREVARD            FL   PUBLIC            
  
            PUBLIC SIGHTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST   
            OF I-95 AND SR50.

And, per NHC (The Hurricane Center)

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

Do note the mention above of a Col-Region. This was referred to on Friday as "No Man's Land" in that post. And so it is, this was per the GFS model, which again though was and can always remain in question. Today's post is for worst case scenario instead of beating around the bush. Just to be sure we are on  uncertain terms, but on no uncertain terms should we bury heads in the sand either.


As can be seen, the hurricane centers watched area in the top image is the area in blue. It would behoove us not to watch for Debby to take a loop and drop a bit to the south if it does not move onshore in the coming day or two. As a precautionary measure, there is a tornado watch in affect.

CURRENT WATCH  AREA, COULD BE EXTENDED

Per latest guidance in the short term which is consistent with several past model runs of the GFS, today could prove to be another tornado day until well past dark, so the time of this watch may very well be extended. Especially in those areas noted in that top image with those colored lines of red and purple. Wind fields with heating of the day, albeit a bit meager, could be 'exaggerated' due to diurnal heating, exaggerated that is beyond what guidance is showing. Hence, waste not want not... out comes this post.


Note also a potential 'other track' Debby Could Take as shown by the yellow bounds crayoned in. Not a forecast, only a consideration of the GFS model. It has been showing something between going from near or just north of I-4 to along Dead Central several times now in the past 3 days over 12 model runs, so very hard to ignore. And who knows, it could drop even further south than that. The point is, if the current model run that is shown verifies, the Tornado Threat alone will get greater, and not less. On the other-hand, if the storm lifts more quickly off to the ENE-NE, the threat decreases. OR..if it moves more toward the NW..there is zero concern for much of the state. 


Any strengthening though looks minimal to non-existent, so the center of the circulation at this time should not be the primary focus . Winds at Canaveral to Patrick last night were the strongest over land in the state, and see how far that location is from the storm. What 'could be' the addition to the storm's effects would be pressure gradient winds combined with winds aloft creating for looping hodographs more than what is already there (rotating storms). The GFS has been maining a 'totally crazy' precipitation bulls eye, six inches of rain up to 10 inches over a 6 hour period two runs in a row now (and not the first times either) for somewhere near I-4 toward The Central Diving Line.   Perhaps, the crossing could be as late as Wednesday. It seems to be trending that the longer it waits, the more it will drop south, and the more bizarre the impacts become. On the other hand, should Debby just lift north and be over with....that changes everything.

"Little Debbie" Dishing Out the Not So Sweets - Swiss Roll?

Latest noon , Sunday water vapor image. Text below to highlight
things to watch for

Today, last post was on Friday and so far, per the GFS guidance (which has NOT been favored), the weather that is evolving is occurring quite close to that guidance on Friday. It was mentioned there could be some tornadoes/rotating storms at that time, and as of this time three tornado warnings are in affect which will we see further down. There has been tremendious disparity in guidance in regard to what Debbie will do in the next 3 days, if you've seen the coverage on TV it is no secredt. Latest Hurricane Center discussion has this to say:

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING. DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3 KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.


In regard to the image aobve, what is noted is the lead edge of an upper level speed max dropping wouth form the SW Great Lakes region. This could help draw Debbie further north into tomorrow but from there it might again slow down. We can see to the west an upper level low, this again is not mystery as it was visible the other day on that post. It is slowly dropping south. Note all of the dry air behind that entity aloft. The image is showing mostly mid and upper level atmospheres, except where the "L" is drawn in to emphasize our Little Darling Debbie. The Hurricane Center has drastically shifted its projections more from toward Texas toward the Northern Gulf Coast. If Debbie hangs out much longer into tomorrow the course might be shifted yet more toward the Florida Big Bend. For purposes o.f the post, the red lines are to provide ONLY an alternate possibility for a cone of erred acceptance.  I have not looked much if at all at other guidance since early yesterday , rather going by vapor loop animations and GFS trends. Do note, the ECMWF (model) has been the favored solution all along by most interested in these systems (again, for probing into another point of view). This post is mainly to point out the level of uncertainty, and the way if we read between the lines where I'm inclined to head, at least through Monday. As the new GFS is now coming up, it appears Debbie may already by on land by Monday night..

KEEP in Mind though, if the GFS course transpires, do not focus on the cetner. Per the model, the strongest winds would be across Central and South Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee and not around the Center. On the other hand, should Debbie not follow toward the NE-ENE there could still remain an isolated severe weather threat tomorrow and Tuesday from mid-morning hours through nightfall, and maybe even overnight should the storm progress closer toward the Florida West Coast.

TODAY: As noted, several tornado warnings have been issued toward the west coast and south Florida. An 850mb (mid level) increase in winds is forecast by most guidance by mid-late afternoon across Central and South Florida, so it would at least be to advantage to bear this mind. Should those wind fields make the plunge, the tornado threat could suddenly increase in this area with no warning what so ever. Granted, any activity would be very isolated, and the weather outside of any such storm cell will remain rather benign as the move in from the murky overcast.

MONDAY; Much of course depends on whether Debbie dishes out more Swiss Rolls  and Cinnamon Swirls, or peanut butter planks. If we go with the Planks, the sever weather threat abates. However, as of current guidance and trends, the motion of Debbie should not be all so great to make that much of a difference, and it will all come down to timing of when a vorticity lobe rotates across the peninsula accompanied by increased mid level winds.

 

This is from this morning earlier, but there has been no change, as can be seen by the annotations made at that time. BUT do note, the Hurricane Center OFFICIAL forecast enveloped area is MUCH further toward the NW into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast. Louisiana was the course of action of the ECMWF early this morning, as opposed to Texas just the day before. At this time, it does not look like Debbie will ever be a hurricane, or if so..only briefly. Then again..... 

And now having seen the Hurricane Center's last discussion, we see this:

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.

Possibility of Torrential Downpours Going into Sunday

Some showers possible near the coast today, mainly south of DAB and brief.
Better chances well west of I-95 , with best coverage between 3-7pm. Thunder possible

TODAY: Not a whole lot different than yesterday for the most part, as large area of low pressure continues in the far Southern Gulf extending toward the Central Gulf as can be seen by clouds in the image above in the Gulf. The disturbed area extends well to the south in toward the Yucatan and waters to its east in the Western Caribbean. This is noted in the water vapor image further down.  Meanwhile, other than some showers and some thunder, little other to occur over Florida today


SATURDAY: The large area of low pressure is expected to at least lift north and gather together a bit better. So far so good, but that is also about as far as guidance gets in agreement.  The GFS had strayed off from previous mathematical solution for one run, then got back right on track with previous runs. The  EURO favors 'something' heading toward Texas, although not sure it is not picking up on an upper level low forecast to move right into that area in the next 48 hours as can be seen of water vapor loops (barely). It is still up for grabs though. Not shown here since if that is the case it means way more time in the distant future and no concern for Florida. 


In any case, chance of showers east central early on, but most rain appears will be South Florida and near the east coast as far north as DAB. As noted , by this time tomorrow guidance starts to already diverge, so much of what the weather does by tomorrow morning will already be contingent upon what occurs in the Gulf, we might have to expect the unexpected (for better or for worse)  until tomorrow when details can be ironed out assuming they even can be)... As seen below:

WATER VAPOR LOOP LATEST (Explanation below, see annotations)

This image is the latest prior to the post of water vapor in the atmosphere primarily in the upper portions and into the mid levels of the atmosphere. We see some features as noted:
1. High pressure to the west. This has been forecast to continue to build in toward the east and flatten southward with time over the weekend
2. What is not shown is weak low circulation in SW Texas. That is also forecast to shift east then drop south toward the location of the orange question mark. This is important for future forecast if it holds true to form because;
3. East of Florida is an upper level low with a ridge to its west off the Florida Coast. Both are forecast to shift east beginning tonight. In doing so, the large area of low pressure easily visible but WEST of the deep convection of storms near the bottom center of the image will lift north under a dome of high pressure aloft, and to its east.
4. Meanwhile, in yellow, a mid level trough could form on the Lee side of the Appalachians accompanied by upper level support. This is expected to build south into the NE Gulf and merge with the now possible depression or storm by late Saturday or Early Sunday, if not sooner. Point is that at this point it makes no difference if a tropical entity is tagged, although they are watching it at the Hurricane Center.

Honesty though, the entire scenario spelled out by the GFS looks suspect. If a good named storm forms, all bets are off and the rules do not apply.

 More clearly, this is the forecast for tomorrow morning, showing UPPER LEVEL high pressure, the low east of Florida moving away. High Pressure near Cuba and low in west Gulf should lift low level surface features northward into the Eastern Gulf. From there, we see the purple arrows and question marks. The low will be in as labelled "No Man's Land" with little steering, and it is at this point the models AGAIN diverge. GFS has been quite consistent on heavy rains mainly from Central to the GA border area, mostly   somewhere between I-4 toward I-10,however, the area of Dead Central is another matter altogether as included further down. Again, based on the GFS (which quite possible is wrong in a number of areas up until this point already).


LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY: GFS has also been consistent with wind fields over Central and South Florida to become favorable for tornadic like activity (IF) the low performs as GFS indicates regardless of weather it is designated a tropical system or not. Actually, if it is, those chances decrease. The entire configuration is quite flaky until heading into over night Saturday time frame, and even then it is the temperatures aloft that seem to be the main driver for designation. Wind fields are way broad , with some of the strongest depth of winds across the peninsula partly due to pressure gradient from high pressure building from the east in the SW Atlantic. Chances are though, it would be named regardless. Point is, even if it is not named conditions could get quite windy over the Peninsula on Sunday and Monday, but most of the rain remains to the north. Those reason alone make it look more sub-tropical than tropical, quickly becoming extra-tropical. as the system is absorbed by a trough digging south as is also shown above.


The NOGAPS model might get the last laugh though, it says, "No can do"..leaving the low in the Gulf to drift off to the SSW-SW-WSW while two other lows form well off the Florida East coast . That would spell major 'Forecast BUST" for all parties concerned, and not much in the way of weather to write your congressman about. For now, 'worst case' scenario is the GFS, and so far it does not look all 'that' bad except for some big rainfall totals, and those wind fields across Central and South as noted above.


If ALL models are wrong, we could have a storm or hurricane sitting in the Gulf not going anywhere for a couple of days. 

Better Rain Chances Spine and West, Watching Tropics For Now

Could be isolated showers near east coast, especially Daytona and North, but most activity today should be geared more toward the west side, with thunder possible. Strong activity not expected of duration if any at all

TODAY: All in all, things are on track per yesterday's post with today being at least one day if not more of 'lull in the action'. Very very large inverted trough of low pressure for discussion purposes in general remains from near the Yucatan NE ward into the East Central Gulf with little motion, while steering and low level winds remain from the ESE-SE from surface through the mid levels along its eastern flanks. Moisture remains, but with little focus now as the sharper delineation of wind fields has become more 'rounded' since sunset last night. This was well foreseen as rain abated quickly during the transition after dark . Today should be a relatively nice day along the east coast with perhaps a few exceptions, but nice will be the ruling majority. Not so much so the further west one ventures, with guidance essentially honing in on some thundershowers and showers, and a few patches of rain as also depicted above. This is not to say perhaps on isolated thunder couldn't occur close to I-95 early on, but even so, that would be quickly departing toward the WNW-NW if not fading away in place. That's it for today.


WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Good luck! Model consensus is "there IS no consensus". The GFS is most consistent, and the ECMWF comes close, although its ensemble strays. So even there, no consensus within variations of the same model. Depending on what one favors, rain chances could be quite low over the weekend, whereas the latest GFS says, "Bring it on!".  Without going into a break down of what each model is reading, we've already answered our own question. Who cares, it is superfluous information. 


For blog purposes ONLY, it will be interesting to see what "TV Guys and Gals" say. One model shows a big storm going into Cedar Key, the GFS says leave it more of a trough and take a series of impulses across Central and South Central Florida, and others shrug and give up not really showing much of anything happening at all. One must wonder if the stations have a point system going on for success vs. non-success. If extended forecast is successful one has bonus points for attracting viewers, yet if the forecast is incorrect we hear nothing of it, and it fades away 'as if' nothing was ever said.   In conclusion, no one knows what is to occur beyond even today for the most part. The bigger question is, "Why"?

All upper level low pressure circulations., moving very little are shown along the South..to the north..several others, but only one depicted here. The forces are at a stand-off during the transitory shift in the tropics which can be explained by the earths title toward the sun creating a balancing of heat around the entire globe.

First day of summer truly does mean first day of summer as far as the sun is concerned, it cares little of the weather its forces provide. We are in a transitional period . Some activity is actually retrograding back toward the west (from east to west) while other activity much to the north is trying to work against it (this is all well aloft)  to maintain balance by continuing to move west to east. 


In between, there is stagnation. Our pesky trough in the Gulf is one such entity.  Best bet is to be prepared for better rain chances across more of the state, including the east coast on Saturday and Sunday. Evening news channels will have a better handle on the short term this evening, since this post can logically only proliferate on currently available information. 


There is much discussion of a tropical storm forming here and there, hither and yon..GFS shows east of Florida, others show west. Best be on the alert by later Friday.  There is always the opt out. Nothing will form at all. 


Although, that seems highly unlikely at this point, wouldn't put it past us just yet. It's all a matter of when, where, and how well "something" forms. A projection at this point would not be far off as to describe this as being like putting a  leaf in a babbling brook and trying to guess where it will land ashore with accuracy after passing through and amidst the swirling currents and eddies.  Not to discard that we are watching both higher pressure to the north as well as a yet to develop low pressure trough. Everything plays in to the puzzle, so best advice at this point is to keep one's options open. It's not nice to fool mother nature.

40th Anniversary Hurricane Agnes, Summer, Wet Season Collide!

Track of Hurricane Agnes, making landfall  on the 19th of June, 1972,  40 years ago.  Triangles note some documented tornadoes and their rating, beside the big rainfall totals

TODAY/NIGHT: Summer Solstice is at 7:09PM EDT tonight.The word solstice is from the Latin solstitium, from sol (Sun) and stitium (to stop), as the Sun appears to stop at this time (and again at the winter solstice).
Solstices and the equinoxes this year occur earlier than in any year since 1896. This is because the year 2000, which was an “extra” leap year (the first time in four centuries that such a change was made), combined with 2012, a routine leap year, to create a tweak of time that jump-starts the seasons this year. Makes one wonder about December 21st just a bit more. What they knew, they knew 'something'.. And talking of synchronicity...

Otherwise, above we can see that Agnes made landfall in '72 on Florida not but within 48 hours of this date 40 years ago.  Still recalling the night of the twin tornadoes hitting Cape Canaveral and Merritt Island Airport like it was yesterday. Cape View, Harbor and Coral Drives, the baseball fields, areas where there was only woods (like Ocean Woods , Royal Mansions, not to mention the Selona Lakes area and the Ron Jon's Vacation Resort might have all been in the path of that EF2/3 tornado. The storm lit up the sky in Cocoa Beach like the Fourth of July as I recall at that young age. I was up at the hour, seems to be around 2:30AM, awakened by 'something eerie about the air', as I put it back then the next day.  Watched the lightning from there out the kitchen window in my PJs.

Jumping to the present, water balloonsville. We have the Solstice and what appears to be the first real day of the wet season in progress. Interestingly, it started right on cue last year  as well to the date of the solstice, but in different fashion. It was back then the second latest wet season recorded,   now it has a twin.  Just goes to show, when records have not been around all THAT long, we never can know the vulnerabilities and variabilities that existed  "the other million years" before Florida was inhabited by weather geeks. (if it existed then).

IN THE WEATHER:

Not going to go too much into weather as all is on schedule with a variably stacked series of surface to mid level troughs creeping northward and up the state. It has rained as far north as Central (see below). And most of the rain today should remain south of I-4 before working further north later in the week.

BEYOND: Will not go into great depth for today. Latest GFS, as opposed to only one run before it, is now showing the potential for tropical storm development in the East Central Gulf region in the next few days , over the weekend. However, word of note, previous runs bring the same boundary stacked up from near Dead Central to I-4 on now three  previous consecutive runs, but never form a low pressure area beyond a potential depression late in the cycle. The previous run tries to form a depression right over Central Florida before turning it into a minimal storm well off shore. 

In contrast, we have that last run forming one to the west. And before both runs, the model showed 4 separate lows lined up along the boundary between I-4 and Dead Central from the Gulf and into the Atlantic. This trough will get so far north before running into High Pressure building east across the South Central Plains in a few days. Additionally, a larger upper level trough is forecast to drop south into the Appalachians region. Between the two of those features to the north, our personal boundary (hey, no crossing the line)...for Florida is essentially a complete and separate entity away from the U.S., continental weather systems.

 Whether it remains that way, or the low pressure area starts to become absorbed in to the trough to the north is yet to be determined, as developments vary.  Keep in mind, NOTHING has even formed yet..so great variations  in runs could continue for another 2 days at least.

In general, this shows how the highest level trough aloft is to the north, and the lower in the atmosphere one goes the further south are the trough...which mean it is a sloping upward system, much like a warm front..

Rain showers could occur off and on nearest any of these boundaries. There are signs that activity will slow down quite a bit tonight in most areas, and may not resume so much tomorrow as much as late Friday and through the weekend. BUT, it all depends on the future developments. Another way of putting it, variations have been so great that one area could get between 1/4" to 9" of rain..so would not call for anything to steadfast just yet. The only consistent THEME has been for somewhere across  Central Florida (north central , central, south central), could get really nailed with the rains, and potential severe, tornado producing weather in the Saturday to early Sunday time frame. But again, pure 'skeptulation' at this point. 

Will Wet Season Arrive in Perfect Synchronization Afterall?

GFS model forecast for overall atmospheric moisture content in the boundary layer (that in which weather occurs) for Wednesday Evening at  8:00pm

MONDAY/TUESDAY/EARLY WEDENSDAY: Not much change today through early Wednesday, although wind, easterly, could pick up a bit on Tuesday toward Wednesday near the east coast from South to North, which is contingent under explanation as noted below.


BEYOND: With that said, next comes the big period in question. Latest model guidance (NAM/GFS) have returned to the previous state of mind, bringing the Atmospheric Tsunami of Moisture northward. By all appearances, the old frontal boundary that finally pushed through a few days ago, which was partly responsible for the severe thunderstorm warnings,  had stretched out and become a bit elevated around 5000 ft will re-emerge and lift northward as a warm front as seen above. And the result, lifting and dragging northward of deep layer atmospheric moisture as a calling card.


Guidance is close to a- glee-ment for now, but previous runs showed nothing like this at all. For now, it is worth at least being aware of. Whether  that Deep Purple is 'Smoke on the Water"  (or a Smoke Screen) showing high precipitable water values will actually arrive right on the Summer Solstice to South and South Central and to as far north as the I-4 Corridor for the first full day of astronomical summer is yet to be known for sure, as this was a quick shift in guidance. This can only be determined with greater assurance (or not) in future model runs. 


After further evaluation, it seems by all appearances is that what guidance is awaiting arrival of is an anomaly or perturbation  in what would be an otherwise un-fazed environment known as an observed and named phenomenon called the MJO or Madden-Jullian Oscillation.  


If this is correct, or something close to this does occur, chances are the first 72 hours will be the most rainy, but once the atmosphere by then worked over and fully saturated for that long of time occurs, even though the atmospheric moisture remains high, chances are it will most cloudy .  But before then, guidance shows up to 4 or more inches could fall in various locales between Thursday through Saturday.  Much depends on what is to be depicted in the next few runs which come out every 6 hours..So not to hang the hat on this one just yet. For all we know, next model run will revert to something completely different, as was the case earlier/over-night. But do not be surprised if you see something like this on the news.


The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific (except over the region of warmer water off the west coast of Central America) but occasionally reappears at low amplitude over the tropical Atlantic and higher amplitude over the Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, 30–60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.

For more information:    http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html 

Waiting for the Atmospheric Tsunami To Strike! But Wait, There's More

Atmospheric Precipitable Water Color Coded Values Forecast By the GFS Model for Thursday afternoon. Note the  "monsterTube Ride" offshore the Cape 10,000 Above ground. Purple is Deep Moisture with the greys and white almost off the charts full saturation from the ground to the jet stream level.

TODAY AND UNTIL GROUND ZERO: Not much really to chat about today since for the most part weather across the state will remain essentially dry rain wise outside of a very isolated shower through early to mid-week.


Forecast guidance is all showing that EVENTUALLY  moisture from the South will lift north, but much of the timing on this self-determined ' event' is greatly hinged on development of low pressure somewhere between the extreme SW Caribbean toward the Lower SW Gulf of Mexico. The more closed up the low pressure is, the longer it will take for moisture to get here. The more open it is,  the sooner.   Models are shifting from Wednesday to Thursday to as late as after NEXT weekend as of yesterday for moisture arrival up the state.


Additionally, where exactly one or more lows will form can also be tricky. For all we know, one could form near the Bahamas AND in the SW Gulf somewhere.


Thus, until the time of the moisture arrival occurs,  mostly from south to north, it's a guessing game until something happens. The only safe thing to say is that pretty much the weather will be non-eventful until that time.


For comparison's  sake:  Last year the arrival of deeper atmospheric moisture arrived in near perfect sync with the first astronomical day of Summer. This year, the Summer Sol - (Sun) - stice  is on June 20th at 7:09 PM  EDT. as it crosses the Tropic of  (Skin) Cancer. On this day, the sun is at it's peak height in the sky at appropriately deemed "High Noon".  In short, what this means is that moisture will not be here by the first day of summer this year. Interestingly, the Tropic of Cancer is not a fixed location either, but slowly moves over a period of years by a few 1/100s of degrees of Latitude.  On the other hand, this day will mark  the first official day of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

Of all things, interestingly, my Weather Channel Weather Guide Calendar does not have the first day of summer noted on it. I want a refund.  


 Why is this moisture arrival important? It will herald in the onset of the Florida 'wet season' not to be confused with the 'convective season' which has been experienced lately. With the wet season comes warmer overnight lows , higher afternoon humidity, and typically not quite as warm afternoon highs as those that can be experienced before the onset of this season. Afternoon highs across the state during the wet season always fall within a 'typical summer time regime' year after year. It's just a matter of time now. Also, although thunder storms and showers can be expected with greater continuity, they are not usually as strong due to less dry air in the mid levels , weaker to very very light winds aloft, and warmer temperatures aloft as well. In short, wet season regime storms are a high percentage of the time influenced primarily by sea breeze and lake breeze interactions without any real synoptic scale fronts. In the absence of fronts or well defined troughs, the key is the location of the low to mid level high pressure areas to the east. If the Atlantic/Bermuda high ridge axis is North of Central, most storms hit the west coast  ..and if South of Central, the east coast..and if dead across Central, the I-4 corridor is the hot location from Tampa to Daytona. South Florida often has a mind of its own with the additive factor of the Everglades and very light winds playing near the Okeechobee Lake Breeze boundary.


Talking about Atmospheric Tsunamis.  Actual Tsunamis leave a destructive and often deadly stamp on land, but they also make a surprising and poorly understood impression high above the Earth.  Now scientists are turning their gaze upward in the hunt for signs of these as-yet mysterious "atmospheric gravity waves" generated by tsunamis, in an effort to gather better data on the potentially devastating ocean-based waves and improve tsunami warning networks. They're using a familiar and ubiquitous tool — GPS — to do it.

"The tsunami very effectively generates atmospheric gravity waves, and because they're fast, those waves can effectively travel to the upper atmosphere ," said Michael Hickey, a physics professor and associate dean at Embry-Riddle.  Although not included in the article, it got me thinking about animals keenly detecting those waves and fleeing before humans are even aware of the impending surge  (outside of a warning system).

Strong Storms Possible Mainly South Central and South Florida Today - Transition

Cape Canaveral Wednesday Early Evening, Storm Approaches

TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking. Below is pictured that the low off the panhandle is joining with a mid level trough off the mid-Atlantic coast to Florida. The low proper will begin to lose organization and open up, but not too quickly. Other wise, the only other features to monitor are a dry slot  in the mid levels which seems could be crossing a portion of South Central this afternoon, holding off storms almost entirely. Indications per short and mid term guidance indicates less energy aloft today, and there is little in coastal convergence along the east coast. Do not expect the east coast sea breeze to be quite as active today since instability is not quite as high as yesterday .  Do not expect the west coast sea breeze to be quite as active either. The only other difference is that temperatures aloft are a bit colder than yesterday. Net result could be something like this:

BLUE is the general location of mid level boundary which will sink slowly south with time.  Green is where showers could occur mid afternoon from of all things, moisture from the NE direction. This moisture approach is also accompanied by instability, as was the case yesterday. Thus, the yellow means we might hear some thunder in that area, since the coldest air aloft is in this location as well. Orange, better chance of storms overall.

 ZOOMING IN:

Again, purple is in the mid levels. There is a dry slot in there moving toward the same area as well, which is the wrench in today's forecast. Timing for where and when the strongest storms will be is difficult.

 STORMS TODAY: Tough call, sea breeze collision will be hard to come by until far south Florida near Lake Okeechobee, so would expect the strongest storms to be in the red zone, perhaps just inland from the coast, but never say never with boundaries around (synoptic scale ones as shown in the images).  Atmosphere is not as unstable today and there is little in upper level energy compared to yesterday at this same time. It is still a bit early, but all in all with cold air aloft and winds in the upper levels providing lift it might not make all that much difference anyway, seeing as how this is Florida after-all. Air is pretty dry south Florida though, so any storm that can eventually get cranking could reach severe potential from West Palm across to Port Charlotte , somewhere about 20 miles from either coast (orange to red in general). 


Elsewhere, some stronger storms could manifest of short duration working South to South Southeast or Southeast into the red zone. Yet still, in green showers could manifest with a surge of low level moisture later today accompanied by instability as well. Could be some thunder if any of this isolated activity manages to manifest, although not drawn in on the second image for today's 'depiction' since that chance looks to be very low.


BEYOND: Storms again possible South Florida for one more day, but elsewhere ENE winds will pick up on Saturday, decreasing some on Sunday. Chance of a few isolated showers near the coast, mainly from Vero Beach and North through Sunday into Monday. The time frame of Monday through Tuesday and into Wednesday looks very quiet other than some clouds and maybe a shower near the coast around sunrise or so.  Official Summer Begins astronomically speaking around June 22nd. In review of last year, I saw that our Wet Season began almost on the exact same day as the first day of summer, and if the trend in model guidance continues per last night...this year will not be far off the mark with a tidal wave of atmospheric moisture consistently at or above 1.70" inches most of the time from next weekend on out being depicted, working from South to North beginning late week and into the weekend (next weekend).  In comparison, during the winter precipitable water (moisture) seldom exceeds 1" and most often is less than 0.5".

Chance of Active Lightning Storms Interior After 4:30pm Central

Image shows low continuing to spin near Panama City early afternoon. Boundary 'seems' to extend from that low down the spine of the state toward the previous boundary that passed down and through Central late yesterday (blue dashes). 

TODAY: After a fairly lightning active day with a few reports of pea to nickel sized hail in North to North Central and likely toward Lake Okeechobee (west of Vero to Ft. Pierce) today is amounting to look not all too much different for later today so far with the difference being that activity should for the most part remain away from the I-95 corridor. Do not think we'll hear and severe weather warnings, but some Special Weather Statements could be in order.


Factors today:  First, winds aloft today per model guidance are not steering quite as strong as yesterday to the east, BUT..the KSC sounding showed winds just as strong as yesterday in the steering level, which leaves the First Question in my  mind right from the get go. Why is that? Did the guidance not pick up on the KSC sounding or was it a fluke sounding? Latest trends are not showing activity to the north being steered, but then again, models are not showing winds aloft to the north to be as strong in the first place either. Even though graphic does not show it, (as you will see), the area closer toward I-95 in South Brevard toward Vero/Ft. Pierce again might want to consider the better chance of rain and thunder.


Additionally as of this hour, models do not seem to have a grasp on the situation today AT ALL. Or rather, there is little consensus in the precip. fields. Thus, some of this post is based on trends and playing "Seer-caster". 


Second factor. There is quite a bit of instability over the Atlantic off shore the Cape and north as well as in the Gulf. Suspect both sea breezes could become active today, with any activity being steered by
A. The inland extent of the sea breeze fronts
B. Localized boundaries established by the local Lake Breezes
C. Propagation from north to south along either sea breeze as a result of outflow from any previous storm further north.  


Third factor: At time, conditions SOUTH of where storms are now occurring are not favorable for storms due to a few mitigating factors as a 'dry ripple' runs west to east across South Central or south of I-4 for the most part. This area should move on with a moisture surge coming in later today couple with the "sea breeze squeeze -  rush hour shuffle" ..enhancing activity right after peak heating and as other conditions in the atmosphere become more diurnally favorable by nature.

Suspect overall storm motion will be slow, with localized 'deep puddling' of water, frequent lightning especially after 5:00 pm to 7:30pm in the interior of Central working toward South Central.  The Areas that seem could be bigger targets are parts of Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and west Volusia perhaps, toward Lake County. Some activity 'could' enter Brevard but do not believe it would be nearly as potent as activity in the vicinity of the spine of the state. Light rain could fall south of the Cape, but so far lightning does not seem in the cards.  As usual, lightning is the main threat, although small hail (which poses no threat) is again possible as well as some stronger wind gusts where initial storms form and the collapse after reaching their maturation stage.


Activity could work into South Florida as well later today. Conditions look more favorable than yesterday and the day down to the South   for later today as the air mass modifies to the north and works south with time. Once again, though, what is working against most everyone south of where storms are occurring now is High Downdraft CAPE values, which are favorable for strong wind gusts, but first a storm has to be able to generate in that environment.

 BEYOND: With that mess taken care of, not too much to write about really through at least mid-week next week other than there could be a period of breezy onshore winds come Saturday northern coast, periodic cloud bands with showers with timing being an issue in this regard but most likely early morning toward noon time working west during the day for Sunday as well.  


The low near Panama City will open up and merge with a mid level trough to sink down the state from a low offshore the Carolinas. Behind the boundary ENE winds will develop through the 8000 ft level at least, eventually bringing Atlantic showers and patches of clouds in to the coast and across the state from time to time.


Sunday could be the more rainy chance day of the weekend as the depth of ENE-NE flow increases. The only chance of thunder appears to be South and West Florida, but would not be totally shocked to hear thunder coming in off the ocean from the Cape and South over the weekend as instability will be offshore and air aloft rather cool given the circumstances.


No tropical concerns other than the usual question mark near the Yucatan Peninsula. Trends are pointing further and further west for development in that area, but exactly how much development is a moot point for U.S. Interests as it looks now; at least in  regarding direct impacts.  Moisture surge could be in the making from the South late next week, otherwise, the Non-Existent  One True Summer conditions of what would be typical for Florida this time of year continues, just like all of 2012 has been so far. Typically untypical. Makes one wonder if Climate Change is an oxymoron defining itself within its own limited bounds.    

Thunderstorms Likely - Some Extra "Potent"

Osceola County east of Kissimmee on Tuesday. Elevated "shelf cloud" resultant from a Dry and Stable Sea breeze well inland , with no (zero) Convective Available Potential Energy with the sea breeze

TODAY: Potentially 'interesting' day in store for much of the state, with only the region south of Lake Okeechobee not really playing in.  The East Coast Sea breeze has begun as far north as the Cape Kennedy Area at least at last observation. Exactly how far inland it will progress will be a key factor today regarding where the strongest activity will occur. It would seem most likely that the further north one progresses the less inland (if any) westward progression the boundary will make.  There are indications that the east coast sea breeze will especially active today though already, based on the trends of some parameters last seen prior to this post that would support stronger than usual thunderstorms.


A trough of low pressure resides to the far end of the state, but that will not be as much of a factor as much as the mid-upper level trough stretched diagonally from ENE to WSW across far North Central.  High clouds associated with a mini-jet stream streak continue to proliferate South Florida, with East Central over Brevard at this time experiencing the greatest upper level divergence associated with the highest Convective Available "potential" Energy, Instability, across the state just inland and to the WSW as far south as the north side of Lake Okeechobee. This is one reason to watch Dead East Central: Brevard, Southern Volusia, Seminole, Eastern Orange and Osceola Counties over toward  Indian River and St. Lucie Counties (late). Further north toward North Volusia and Flagler, the boundary itself seems will be a greater player due to its closer proximity as well as an upper level vorticity max that has moved little so far since sunrise. This 'vort max' extends across all of East Central however, with the energy "advecting" across the eastern 1/2 of the region. Air temperatures aloft and forecast soundings as well as forecasts of those temperatures would justify at least considering frequent lightning, wind gusts around 45mph and pea sized hail. Any storm  resulting from the perfect collision of the sea breeze and outflow from another storm in collapse phase could result in a funnel cloud , especially along the east coast  sea breeze, where ever that may be located  later this afternoon. Steering of storms, in general, is west to east at 15mph. 


The strongest of storms it would seem will be those that latch on to the east coast sea breeze boundary and work SSE-SE ward against the late afternoon sea breeze (if that in fact will occur at all) if that were to occur. Currently the wind is 'quite easterly' in Canaveral and SE further south, but that wind should start to become much more southerly Central locations from Ft. Pierce and north later today due to the Coriollis Effect .  This will increase low level helicities  (spiraling horizontal winds) being pulled into higher instability located just away from the coast. Thus, the most potent storms in regard to hail potential and just maybe a funnel are noted in red below. 


In reality, the red zone could be 1/2 that size, but given the early time of the afternoon, and the fact that the sea breeze is in place which none of the models were showing at the time of this posting    was to even be in place, this throws a vital wrench in whatever the time delayed forecast models are showing. 

Given the track record though..the red and purple zones are contenders for some 'potent to extra potent' lightning producing storms and small, nuisance hail. That is not to say that a storm or two will not exhibit pulse Severe  or Near Severe characteristics. Chances are, any storm that can produce such winds will also be one that can produce the near severe hail size.   Other storms could occur across far North Florida, but due to the greater focus toward Central, have not mentioned in today's post.  Area to keep a second eye might very well end up being from near Vero toward Ft Pierce.  Air aloft here is much drier, so whatever can go up in that area in earnest would need to be watch, the question is..can anything go up there in earnest to start with. Some areas could also receive a storm or rain shower more than once.  The other, last but not least thing to consider is brief, localized in those areas most prone to it,  flooding of road ways in pour drainage areas due to brief but heavy rainfall.


THURSDAY: Another variation of today, only different. This does not say a whole lot, other than many of the same areas could get wet again, to include South Florida.  We will be in-between boundaries, as the northern one will hesitate a bit as low pressure forms offshore the Carolinas. The main factor to watch by then will be the boundary at 2000 ft, since surface boundaries appear to get absorbed/absolved away during the day.


 That 'upper' boundary  just above the surface will work down the state into South Central by Thursday evening some time..so it appears perhaps the strongest activity will be from Cape Canaveral and South on Thursday. The boundary then clears much if not all of the state by Friday mid-day, as Northeast winds, some quite gusty from New Smyrna and north work in. Coastal showers possible on Friday and Saturday and into Sunday, especially north of West Palm Beach, but in general it appears they will be isolated, perhaps scattered from time to time, but decreasing in likelihood later on Sunday and into Monday as winds become more easterly and decrease.


BEYOND INTO MID WEEK: Easterlies continue, light. Eyes are on the extreme Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan Bay. The GFS and Euro came into close agreement as of this morning for the first time, taking 'something' toward Brownsville in days to come. On the other hand, it was only just the run before that the GFS brought a large tropical storm northward toward Mississippi, then curving it east ward toward the Panhandle or Big Bend area. AND, to make matters worse, the run before that showed no tropical storm development at all. To cut to the chase, given that if or when anything forms is beyond the time frame of model consistency (obviously) as well as reliability, there is little point in focusing on this issue until there is something to see. Invariably, guidance will be bouncing all over the place until that time, and even still and yet, once something does exist (if it does at all)..we then go into Phase II of uncertainties. Thus, as an added bonus at this point, we are only adding uncertainty atop more uncertainty.  Much of the discrepancy, should one ask, seems to be concerning the strength of high pressure over the Atlantic that will be in place once those aforementioned easterlies are in place (as a result of   high pressure over the Atlantic):  where it will be located,where it will move, and its strength and persistence.