Debby's Destiny - Tornado Threat All Day Possible, Future Track New Story

Debby At a Stand Still. Details of graphic below.

TORNADO REPORTS

TODAY: No point really in awaiting for a newer model run to come in at this point given the current circumstances that seem 'could' unfold. In the next day or two.  Florida has been experiencing a tornado outbreak of sorts. One was reported locally near Port St. John just before midnight from a storm that originated down in Okeechobee county hours before. These (some of them ) storms are long-tracking, but the tornadoes not so much so.  Numerous videos and images, mostly from video, are now available on YouTube, but cannot post them here for anonymity sank of those who captured the footage. But videos can be searched   (YouTube) by searching there on "Florida tornado 2012 June Debby". Since Debby's Future Track continues to remain uncertain:

1140 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW PORT SAINT JOHN   28.51N 80.87W   
06/24/2012                   BREVARD            FL   PUBLIC            
  
            PUBLIC SIGHTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST   
            OF I-95 AND SR50.

And, per NHC (The Hurricane Center)

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

Do note the mention above of a Col-Region. This was referred to on Friday as "No Man's Land" in that post. And so it is, this was per the GFS model, which again though was and can always remain in question. Today's post is for worst case scenario instead of beating around the bush. Just to be sure we are on  uncertain terms, but on no uncertain terms should we bury heads in the sand either.


As can be seen, the hurricane centers watched area in the top image is the area in blue. It would behoove us not to watch for Debby to take a loop and drop a bit to the south if it does not move onshore in the coming day or two. As a precautionary measure, there is a tornado watch in affect.

CURRENT WATCH  AREA, COULD BE EXTENDED

Per latest guidance in the short term which is consistent with several past model runs of the GFS, today could prove to be another tornado day until well past dark, so the time of this watch may very well be extended. Especially in those areas noted in that top image with those colored lines of red and purple. Wind fields with heating of the day, albeit a bit meager, could be 'exaggerated' due to diurnal heating, exaggerated that is beyond what guidance is showing. Hence, waste not want not... out comes this post.


Note also a potential 'other track' Debby Could Take as shown by the yellow bounds crayoned in. Not a forecast, only a consideration of the GFS model. It has been showing something between going from near or just north of I-4 to along Dead Central several times now in the past 3 days over 12 model runs, so very hard to ignore. And who knows, it could drop even further south than that. The point is, if the current model run that is shown verifies, the Tornado Threat alone will get greater, and not less. On the other-hand, if the storm lifts more quickly off to the ENE-NE, the threat decreases. OR..if it moves more toward the NW..there is zero concern for much of the state. 


Any strengthening though looks minimal to non-existent, so the center of the circulation at this time should not be the primary focus . Winds at Canaveral to Patrick last night were the strongest over land in the state, and see how far that location is from the storm. What 'could be' the addition to the storm's effects would be pressure gradient winds combined with winds aloft creating for looping hodographs more than what is already there (rotating storms). The GFS has been maining a 'totally crazy' precipitation bulls eye, six inches of rain up to 10 inches over a 6 hour period two runs in a row now (and not the first times either) for somewhere near I-4 toward The Central Diving Line.   Perhaps, the crossing could be as late as Wednesday. It seems to be trending that the longer it waits, the more it will drop south, and the more bizarre the impacts become. On the other hand, should Debby just lift north and be over with....that changes everything.