"Little Debbie" Dishing Out the Not So Sweets - Swiss Roll?

Latest noon , Sunday water vapor image. Text below to highlight
things to watch for

Today, last post was on Friday and so far, per the GFS guidance (which has NOT been favored), the weather that is evolving is occurring quite close to that guidance on Friday. It was mentioned there could be some tornadoes/rotating storms at that time, and as of this time three tornado warnings are in affect which will we see further down. There has been tremendious disparity in guidance in regard to what Debbie will do in the next 3 days, if you've seen the coverage on TV it is no secredt. Latest Hurricane Center discussion has this to say:

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING. DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3 KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.


In regard to the image aobve, what is noted is the lead edge of an upper level speed max dropping wouth form the SW Great Lakes region. This could help draw Debbie further north into tomorrow but from there it might again slow down. We can see to the west an upper level low, this again is not mystery as it was visible the other day on that post. It is slowly dropping south. Note all of the dry air behind that entity aloft. The image is showing mostly mid and upper level atmospheres, except where the "L" is drawn in to emphasize our Little Darling Debbie. The Hurricane Center has drastically shifted its projections more from toward Texas toward the Northern Gulf Coast. If Debbie hangs out much longer into tomorrow the course might be shifted yet more toward the Florida Big Bend. For purposes o.f the post, the red lines are to provide ONLY an alternate possibility for a cone of erred acceptance.  I have not looked much if at all at other guidance since early yesterday , rather going by vapor loop animations and GFS trends. Do note, the ECMWF (model) has been the favored solution all along by most interested in these systems (again, for probing into another point of view). This post is mainly to point out the level of uncertainty, and the way if we read between the lines where I'm inclined to head, at least through Monday. As the new GFS is now coming up, it appears Debbie may already by on land by Monday night..

KEEP in Mind though, if the GFS course transpires, do not focus on the cetner. Per the model, the strongest winds would be across Central and South Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee and not around the Center. On the other hand, should Debbie not follow toward the NE-ENE there could still remain an isolated severe weather threat tomorrow and Tuesday from mid-morning hours through nightfall, and maybe even overnight should the storm progress closer toward the Florida West Coast.

TODAY: As noted, several tornado warnings have been issued toward the west coast and south Florida. An 850mb (mid level) increase in winds is forecast by most guidance by mid-late afternoon across Central and South Florida, so it would at least be to advantage to bear this mind. Should those wind fields make the plunge, the tornado threat could suddenly increase in this area with no warning what so ever. Granted, any activity would be very isolated, and the weather outside of any such storm cell will remain rather benign as the move in from the murky overcast.

MONDAY; Much of course depends on whether Debbie dishes out more Swiss Rolls  and Cinnamon Swirls, or peanut butter planks. If we go with the Planks, the sever weather threat abates. However, as of current guidance and trends, the motion of Debbie should not be all so great to make that much of a difference, and it will all come down to timing of when a vorticity lobe rotates across the peninsula accompanied by increased mid level winds.

 

This is from this morning earlier, but there has been no change, as can be seen by the annotations made at that time. BUT do note, the Hurricane Center OFFICIAL forecast enveloped area is MUCH further toward the NW into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast. Louisiana was the course of action of the ECMWF early this morning, as opposed to Texas just the day before. At this time, it does not look like Debbie will ever be a hurricane, or if so..only briefly. Then again..... 

And now having seen the Hurricane Center's last discussion, we see this:

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.