Cloudiness Transition to Showery Thunder Mid Afternoon - Early Evening

"Pasture Performance"

TODAY: No change in thinking our circumstances regarding , once again, prevalent early cloudy conditions over some areas; however, some areas are receiving ample clearing for surface heating. Plenty of instability is in place although low level lapse rates are the pits right now as of noon due to cloud cover. But, per visible satellite imagery, it appears much of the land mass will receive the heat energy necessary to set the wheels in motion for isolated to scattered shower and storm activity. As expected, the low level through mid-level ridge axis or Deep Layer Mean (DLM) ridge is well across South Florida making for eastward storm motions at generally 10-18 mph, but not so strong that some activity could propagate along any outflow boundaries or Lake breeze boundaries near and downstream of the larger bodies of inland waters.

Like Yesterday, early cloudiness muddies the atmospheric waters making things a bit difficult to peg down to  a higher degree of certainty. Latest visible image shows clearing west half of state Central and North Portions (mainly). East Central will have the  most difficult time to clear out, along with much of the South

MONDAY: Steering continues pretty much the same. As previously noted, a low pressure area in upper levels near James Bay will begin to deepen and extend southward with reinforcements from the northwest: at the surface in the form of a weak frontal boundary. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The mid level trough will begin to become more notable east of the Mississippi River Valley Basin as well, as it appears, because High Pressure well to the east over the NW Atlantic will block the low pressure area from progressing east, so instead of working east and away it will 'buckle' southward into the Southeast states. This will cause steering to be from the West Northwest (WNW) but ample moisture remains. Upper and mid level temperature profiles do not appear will change significantly for the warmer or colder, so an obvious chance of strong storms will only be discernible on "The Day Of..." , which will also be contingent on the unusual  early day cloud coverage issue which we should see come to end any day now. Later in the week we might be dealing with remnant MCS (mesoscale convective system) like activity riding down the back end of the trough from the continental U.S. which always puts a major crimp on any daily forecast, but that is yet to be foreseen. We'll know it when  or if that happens and play it from there.

BEYOND: No big changes foreseen through next week at all into the next weekend although approaching the 27-29th time frame , being as it is so far out in time, becomes highly uncertain; regard that less (though) for thunder chances remain in the equation as of today at least.

"Open Country"