Chance of Isolated Thunder, Perhaps an Isolated "Strong" Event Near Coast

"MOURNING MOON AT 7"

 TODAY: No big surprises, namely that there ARE surprises which was expected. The image two below will depict what 'might' occur as the mid-level trough east of the Mississippi River would start to deepen, but not to depend on that. That being, mid-level impulses forming which could impact the state mainly north and near Central Florida (at indeterminable time frames) with the first one doing so at this time as a section of storm activity near Ocala.  Depending on when or if each one reaches the state and any one area will greatly skew model guidance.

"EVERY CLOUD HAS A....."

Winds just above 'the deck' today are strong enough to likely prevent the East Coast Sea breeze from forming north of the 528 Cswy and south of there it should remain (if it forms) within 1 mile of the coast at most,  except perhaps further south toward Ft pierce or so.  This is some upper level energy and deeper moisture north half of state though, and that combined with outflow from the earlier day activity could throw a wrench in model guidance in regard to where it depicts 'what' and at what time. This image below shows all of the above, but timing is questionable  Observe that the earlier in the day any storm activity approaches and area such as Southern Volusia toward Orlando and then Brevard, the less likely it is that it would be 'strong' activity, perhaps only showers. The better chances of thunder outside of the current activity is after 3pm.

"YESTERDAY"

 BEYOND: With some impulses crossing the Southeast states and likely more to come from the western Great Lakes region, expect that each day will be in question.  Tomorrow will be another day of  "will the sea breeze even form?" as perhaps will be Thursday. That is important to know for without the east coast sea breeze, stronger activity or even thunder becomes less likely.   The weekend, beginning Friday, at a quick glance looks like it could become quite active in the mid afternoons to late day and early evening with sea breeze convergence activity well pronounced as upper level winds begin to decrease. The frontal boundary in the Southeast States that has been discussed before is not showing to read the FLorida/Georgia Border, and even the latest GFS shows it in frontalysis across Central Florida manifesting as an afternoon 'heat low' at the surface which could spark stronger storms. That might be over-done.

"BEACH OUTREACHER"

Cloudiness Transition to Showery Thunder Mid Afternoon - Early Evening

"Pasture Performance"

TODAY: No change in thinking our circumstances regarding , once again, prevalent early cloudy conditions over some areas; however, some areas are receiving ample clearing for surface heating. Plenty of instability is in place although low level lapse rates are the pits right now as of noon due to cloud cover. But, per visible satellite imagery, it appears much of the land mass will receive the heat energy necessary to set the wheels in motion for isolated to scattered shower and storm activity. As expected, the low level through mid-level ridge axis or Deep Layer Mean (DLM) ridge is well across South Florida making for eastward storm motions at generally 10-18 mph, but not so strong that some activity could propagate along any outflow boundaries or Lake breeze boundaries near and downstream of the larger bodies of inland waters.

Like Yesterday, early cloudiness muddies the atmospheric waters making things a bit difficult to peg down to  a higher degree of certainty. Latest visible image shows clearing west half of state Central and North Portions (mainly). East Central will have the  most difficult time to clear out, along with much of the South

MONDAY: Steering continues pretty much the same. As previously noted, a low pressure area in upper levels near James Bay will begin to deepen and extend southward with reinforcements from the northwest: at the surface in the form of a weak frontal boundary. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The mid level trough will begin to become more notable east of the Mississippi River Valley Basin as well, as it appears, because High Pressure well to the east over the NW Atlantic will block the low pressure area from progressing east, so instead of working east and away it will 'buckle' southward into the Southeast states. This will cause steering to be from the West Northwest (WNW) but ample moisture remains. Upper and mid level temperature profiles do not appear will change significantly for the warmer or colder, so an obvious chance of strong storms will only be discernible on "The Day Of..." , which will also be contingent on the unusual  early day cloud coverage issue which we should see come to end any day now. Later in the week we might be dealing with remnant MCS (mesoscale convective system) like activity riding down the back end of the trough from the continental U.S. which always puts a major crimp on any daily forecast, but that is yet to be foreseen. We'll know it when  or if that happens and play it from there.

BEYOND: No big changes foreseen through next week at all into the next weekend although approaching the 27-29th time frame , being as it is so far out in time, becomes highly uncertain; regard that less (though) for thunder chances remain in the equation as of today at least.

"Open Country"