'Normal" Summerlike Weather Could Return by Thursday, Meanwhile..."

Sunrise Surprise

TODAY- TUESDAY: If one is at all interested in the weather across the east 1/2 of Florida then you'll be aware of a low pressure area offshore the east coast approximately 125-150 NM east of Melbourne which is very slowly moving just west of due south this afternoon. This system combined with high pressure to the west has thoroughly disrupted the normal afternoon thunderstorms/sea breeze pattern across the state. Many areas will remain dry today, perhaps more so than usual other than over parts of  South Central and South Florida outside of some paltry showers that could come on shore mainly near Volusia to Brevard county later in the afternoon. (note, any shower moving onshore will likely contain very gusty winds) . 

Where the low moves will have direct bearing on the weather over the next 48 hours. The closer the low moves to the state, the greater the chances of rain. Guidance varies vastly, if the NAM model verifies, most everyone for the most part remains dry while the low remains too far to the east. If the GFS verifies, then the area mainly from Southern Volusian and south through Martin county could get over 2"" of rainfall by the time Tuesday evening is over with. Take your pic...

2:15PM Melbourne, Florida radar, courtesy of weathertap.com. Red arrows show possible motion of low (shown with the red "L") The little white pointers shows the direct of shower/thunderstorm motion today

 

Visible Satellite Image, showing the bloggers 'cone of error' of where this little low could end up in the near term

Most models agree this low  which is TINY TINY TINY  (at present time) could grow into a  tropical storm east of South Carolina for the most part. As seen above the GFS brings the low very close to Cape Canaveral late Tuesday (purple arrow), another model actually brings it in as a very weak system , finally carrying it off to the north, and yet another model does something in between. Who really knows? (other purple arrow , models show remaining well offshore).  But in all cases, this low 'should' be out of the picture on Wednesday, and by Thursday we would return to business as usual. The next question though would be if dry air will get entrained across the state of Florida here or there in days to come. There again, is disagreement.

THE NHC outlook at 2pm reads:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,
Florida.  Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and only a slight increase in organization would result
in the formation of a tropical depression.  This system is moving
southwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast.  A
turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance.  If this system becomes
a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for
portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Sun Rising on the last day of June 2014 behind Showers
Related to a Tropical Low Offshore

BEYOND: Do note that the NWS, the National Hurricane Center, and Emergency Management are all 'Eye'-ing this system off the FLorida east coast for possible surprisingly big impacts. If the GFS does verify parts of the East Coast regions could receive  over 3"rainfall. At this time, not hedging any bets on it. This system will be of marine interests primarily throughout it's duration as it appears now.

Whispy Pileus Atop Comulus Congestus Rainshower Over the Atlantic 

More Forecast Questions Than Answers Through Tuesday

TODAY - TUESDAY: Best watch what goes on to the east of Florida, for until we know what happens with a low pressure off shore which might develop into a tropical low pressure system (depression or storm at some point), the forecast for Florida will be nearly impossible to know in advance until we know which way it moves. Most model guidance agrees it will drop south just a bit more and then retrograde toward the East Central Coast to offshore Brevard or Indian River County. A few models bring it right into Brevard County in the next 48 hours whereas others leave it off shore. This will have a big impact mainly in the rain department , in regard to how much, when , why, and where it will rain...coming into later tonight through Tuesday or even Wednesday.  

That is not to say that the system couldn't go stationery off shore even longer than any of the models indicate, but for now, it appears no matter where it ends up in 48 hours, agreement is that it lifts north and east generally tracing the U.S. East Coast. The better agreement comes in the extended. Once the low departs the SE. U.S. (assuming it does in the next 72 hours), high pressure ridge to build in across South Florida in general putting most of the state in  a SW or W flow aloft, which favors the east side for thunderstorms later in the day once we return to status quo for summer.

TODAY: Chance of a few isolated stronger storms after 6pm through 9 pm as shown. Though it does not look like there will be a good sea breeze convergence today, therefore, anything 'strong' might be hard to come by especially since temperatures aloft have warmed a bit and we need cold air aloft to generate the stronger activity. Most rains will fall today along to west of I-95, though will watch for some coastal showers possibly to impinge upon east central toward or after dark and overnight depending on what happens with the low.

:NOTE: The more wrapped up (or stronger /organized) any low pressure will get to the east of Florida, the drier the forecast becomes (unless it actually moves fully on shore). 

A Very Isolated, Potentially Severe Storm or Two Possible

Storm Moves into Cape Canaveral on Monday Afternoon

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday and in advance, so far not much change is in store for tomorrow either. High pressure in the lower levels continues to hover off SW Florida and is forecast to 'bubble around' the far Eastern Gulf and possibly migrate toward North Florida in the next few days.
Being on the right descendant side of this high pressure is resulting in dryer mid level air under the current circumstances and more of a north to south storm motion set up, at least for the north half of the state. 

'Mourning' model data and soundings shows a mixed bag of dry and moist air in different levels of the atmosphere but various locations have the moisture in different areas as well, with a fairly uniform PWAT (precipitable water) spread though deceiving; regardless, none of this looks particularly favorable for anything but isolated activity. Temperatures at the KSC site were cold in the upper levels and so-so further down for more vigorous storm activity, but would be conducive for strong wind gusts and small hail. As of the latest, the RAP Mesoscale Analysis combination was showing the best likelihood for larger hail over Central Florida but this will likely shift or could dissipate entirely by this afternoon. Looks like an  atypical, on the dry side, type of Florida summer day, but  one which could produce  'Big" where something does happen.  

The 'graphic' per this armchair position is not much different than yesterday other than to note that activity has a slower start near Cedar Key  today than previous days had and thatan outflow boundary is showing up on visible satellite animations which could put a kick in the west coast sea breeze north of Tampa Bay (TBW) in the next few hours. Given other conditions notwithstanding the 'Central FLorida Curse" of a moisture bald spot over part of South Central at one level, and another dry slot over North Central, it'll all come down to the late afternoon sea breeze/lake breeze and coastal helicity with moderately high Cape Play as to where initial and true growth will occur.

BEYOND:  A bit drier than normal appears to be in the cards for the next several days, with the only possible real change in some of the GFS runs and the ECMWF run coming about later in the weekend or toward the first three days of next week. Until then, the day by day (as usual) conundrums with  arm flailing and  "Facepalm  guess-casts"  continues.

Storms Today, But Where

"Storm and Attendant Arcus Cloud Formation Rolls into Central Brevard County Monday Afternoon"

TODAY: Very tricky blog post from the armchair's perspective today. Latest short term RAP guidance and other models available are showing sparse on the rain chances today most areas except mainly North and far South Florida. The latest RAP (RUC) model and associated output on the Mesoscale Analysis page shows a huge dry socket over South Central to South Florida though sounding data isn't exactly confirming this per MIA's (Miami) forecast discussion. Sea breezes will again come into play today with steering from almost  the due west to east or perhaps a slight ESE motion from the WNW. 

If activity goes up early on the sea breeze some areas might be scoured (stabilized) early on toward the beaches for any substantial rainfall later today, but as is oft the case in the summer, the true storms probably won't get cranking until after the 4:30 - 5pm time frame (at least).  Given the dry mid level air discrepancies, any storms that can get going particularly over the south half could have some hefty wind gusts and the always present threat of lightning well removed from the rain field. 

 A few  radar images (below) show the evolution of what occurred over East Central Florida yesterday as a storm from near MLB (Melbourne)and another further north toward The KSC worked toward each other and merged. Another storm then forms and moves toward Daytona Beach. (see bottom of post).

TOMORROW into WEEKEND: On the other hand, so far today is shown to be the 'driest' most possible day on a Central or even statewide basis if the GFS holds true which is always questionable. High pressure near the Keys is forecast to lift northwest putting the state in more of a northerly steering, but on the other hand a bubble low could also form going toward the weekend near JAX (Jacksonville) and drop south. These features are all very weak though, but will make a significant difference on where it rains and why coming into the weekend which so far is looking a bit 'wet' afternoon wise, though that could easily change after a few more model runs.

BELOW: Storm moving in. Radar Sample, Image A below shows two separate storms conjoining to Image B over East Central Florida yesterday afternoon.

'CONJOINED TWINS'

IMAGE A

IMAGE B

Small Chance of Briefly Strong Storms near East Coast

Jetty Park in Cape Canaveral this Morning

TODAY: Little change from previous posts (again), but as would be the case  each day ( though the overall pattern looks pretty much the same)  like snowflakes, is exactly the same as the one before and the one after despite that conditions are favorable for snow, in this case, rain. Little dry slots that seem to shift on a whim and few discernible local boundaries are in play today other than the east coast sea breeze as far north at least as North Brevard could aid in low level convergence and greater upward mobility along that boundary mainly east of I-95.

Storm motions are from the west to just south of west toward the east in general today outside of any outside fluke events as a result of outward moving boundaries from collapsing rain showers as they migrate across the state. The west coast sea breeze has already begun its trek eastward and is approaching the center of the state as of 1pm.

Small chance some storms, though 'very' isolated, could be stronger than the norm near east coast.
Watching South Florida though later today as well, though moisture is a bit low down there today at least as of this morning

 

BEYOND: The GFS show almost no change tomorrow from that of today, as does Wednesday. The question will be where the moisture is most available outside of other mitigating circumstances like early day cloud cover and dry slots .  No real big changes can be seen within the next week outside of what is presently being shown like the past few days have been, yet each day has a mind of its own and will vary (this has been noted in the past, take it as it comes).

Just Cruisin ' 

Another Chance of Mid-Afternoon - Early Evening Electrically Charged Rains

First Full Day of Summer 2014 Dawns at "The Jetty"

TODAY: Not much change from previous posts nor all too much from yesterday's regime. Low pressure off the Florida east coast has lifted north and is being more absorbed into the mean 500mb flow pattern with other various 'bubble lows' being forecast to form off the Carolina coasts. Otherwise, early morning convection (showers) has formed almost near the same location along the West Coast well north of Tampa as was the case yesterday at this same time frame. Moisture over South Florida not quite as deep today as yesterday but chances are outflows from the north and moisture convergence resulting from a  better chance of a sea breeze over "The South" will result in some action there as well. 

Though steering is very light from the west chances are the better likelihood that storms will move into an area will be a result of propagation of outflows as opposed to steering  - - directly. Not so sure a sea breeze will from north of the Vero or Sebastian area today either, esp. to the North where storms might begin to spread toward earlier in the day, though it's not completely impossible a sea breeze could form (if so, it would remain well east of I-95 if not US1). Any 'on shore ' wind in some areas might be more a result of outflow from a storm that has move offshore in the general vicinity as opposed to true 'sea breeze' generated results. 

Biggest hazard today in general since it is a weekend is Lightning since there will be plenty of water related activities going on during this first full summer weekend (astronomically speaking).

There is a 'chance' storms might back up more toward Central Florida by later in the day making for some larger rainfall totals, but the reality is it's anyone's guess how the day will end in Florida during the summer.

Peaceful  Sunday Morning

BEYOND: The GFS and the ECMWF apparently are not in full agreement as we work toward the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame per discussions from the NWS Offices. The question is not so much if there will be storms and showers as much as where they will end up each day due to the storm steering currents. 

The biggest question is the ever  guiding ridge axis across Florida in the summer months. If the axis which normally runs from east to west is over South Central Florida and further south, the storms get steered toward the East north of Lake Okeechobee; however, if the axis is directly over Central or north of there, all activity remains away from the east coast beaches for the most part and remains inland. 

Additionally, there might be some days in the coming week where moisture won't be as ample for storm generation on some days more than others. Temperatures aloft are not shown to warm as much as the GFS was showing previously, so there could be some stronger storms for the east half of the state on the days the sea breeze can form, moisture is amply enough, and steering is toward the east .    

Outside of a few mitigating situations, there doesn't seem to be a significant change in the overall scheme of things in the next 7 days, with storm chances remaining (somewhere) and little changing other than as noted above).

Summer Solstice and Showery Thunder Tomorrow (and Today)

Cape Canaveral  Beaches Colored by the Last Day of a Spring Sunrise

Low Offshore East Coast to Life North Through Friday (Eventually)

TODAY: Not much change from previous post other than to lift the potential for a solid mini rain 'event' along the east coast, which was mentioned the other day as a possibility. The low responsible for much of the cloud cover over some areas yesterday has lifted to the north just a bit and is mostly affecting the steering currents for storms/showers, as well as being responsible for the NW-WNW winds at the ground level even as of noon time over some areas due to the weak surface circulation even being shown by the model guidance.  

Expect mainly showers near the East coast to work inland with the east coast sea breeze North half of state once it sets in, with possible thunder up and down the Florida turnpike area toward I-27 later today. Steering will generally be from north to south today on the back side of the low (except south Florida will movement will be more chaotically slow).

Further south, greater coverage of showers and storms expected, one or two could be strong near Lake Okeechobee (any side of it).

Distant tall rainshowers at sunrise is seen above the surfline from the Low Pressure Area off Shore

WEEKEND: The Low will lift slowly off to the north and east , Florida no longer in the low level circulation will shift regimes a bit. Increasing moisture from the tropical region is to work northward around high pressure building in behind the departing low with time going into the Monday time frame. Otherwise, each day will have it's own quirks as to exactly where the best moisture will reside. There could be a  'dry slotted' area across Central on Saturday or Sunday before deeper moisture arrives from the south.

General area for showers and storms today

 

SUMMER BEGINS TOMORROW MORNING AT 6:51 AM EDT

Increasing Rain/Thunder Chances Through Weekend (Into Next Week?)

Sunrise at The Cocoa Beach Pier ,  17 June 2013

TODAY: Coastal showers with thunder this afternoon to mainly translate west later today, most prevalent South half of state (South Central / South especially). Warm over nights and muggy with light winds except in the vicinity of showers/storms (some could be strong interior and west side) and with onset of the east coast sea breeze.

THURSDAY: A mid - upper level inverted trough across South Florida will move very little in the next 24 hours but will drift west and north a bit across South Central, entering Central Florida late Thursday. Another chance of showers almost any time but mostly near the coast before sunrise and through sunrise working inland during the day. By late Thursday the axis of the trough will come very close to Central Florida and attempt to close off into a weak mid level circulation. Per the GFS (at least) the center of the circulation could be close to East Central by Daybreak Friday.

FRIDAY: If the GFS verifies, the center (s) of circulation from near 850mb through 500mb will almost be over Brevard County all day Friday, due to the very slow motion of the trough (low). With such weak winds aloft along the focal point, plenty of moisture, and instability notwithstanding there would be a lot of cloud coverage, looks like a good scenario for waterspouts  (especially on this day of the next three days) especially as initial activities of the day are set in motion. 

The low pressures though very weak are then to open and lift north by the weekend, especially by Sunday by north of Central Florida if not the entire state.

BIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE: That is, if the GFS verifies, it is indicating over 3" (inches) over parts of East Central by the time Sunday is over with. Time will tell, but Thursday into Friday especially could be a rainy ordeal if it does verify, in some particular areas. Or, those rainfall totals might only manifest as cloud cover.

Atmospheric Ocean Waves Mimic Each Other

SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY: As the trough lifts north the Atlantic Ridge axis which had been near I-10 will re-establish itself across the Florida Straits placing most of the state in SW-W flow aloft (storm steering). Temperatures aloft are shown to have warmed by this time, so strong storms might not be so much in the offing as much as numerous thunderstorms getting a fairly early start each day (before 3pm). 

Again, if the GFS verifies, plenty of chances for many of areas to have thunderstorms and rainfall going well into next week. As usual, each day will vary and have it's own set of particulars to deal with, taking it as it comes. 

Ocean Thunderstorm off Cape Canaveral

Chance of Isolated Strong to Pulse Severe Storms Mainly South Half Interior Later Today

Storm Outflow Bears Down on Cape Canaveral Saturday

TODAY: Pattern of recent days is breaking down, with today being about the last of the greater coverage of storms, and possibly a much less chance of the immediate beaches seeing rain today, though not impossible.  South half of state is becoming very unstable already as of noon with the Local Data Integration System (LDIS) showing CAPE nearly 5500 J/kg (compared to winter when CAPE is running around 0 -500), coupled with continued cold (but perhaps not quite as cold as previous days) aloft. Sea breeze convergence  will work more effectively today than previous days, but both coast's sea breeze might only work slowly inland with no real particular side favored, though steering continues to be from the west to WNW toward the east side,  but only at around 10 mph at best.   Will also watch an apparent boundary in the lower to mid levels running east to west north of I-4 for some stronger storms though , noted as shown below.

There might be some surprises close to the Dashed Blue boundary shown above which lies around 8-10,000 feet above ground level. South of that line is where the greater instability lies, especially over the south half of the state toward the west side.  Just about anywhere could see some thunder though about  5-10 miles from any coast though some might drift back to the east coast north of Vero Beach

New Storm Goes up off Cape Canaveral Yesterday

BEYOND: Rainy days have come to and end pretty much for anyone that lives east of  US-1 up and down the coast other than for some coastal shower chances to work into the equation late in the week. Guidance is showing decreasing atmospheric moisture across the boards even come Wednesday into Thursday. The odd ball is the North American Model (NAM) run this morning, which showed a weak mid level circulation forming close to Brevard County overnight resulting in clouds and showers over the East Side of the state off and on tomorrow,  but will toss that out and hope for the best.

Other than storms developing inland and moving away from the east coast (and decreasing in coverage), not much to write about heading into next weekend due to how far out in time it is to bother discussing a future cast that could possibly  hold any validity.

Sunrise This Father's Day, Jetty Park, Cape Canaveral 

A Few Stronger Storms South Central/South Florida Later Today

Early Morning in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: A variation of the past two days with only minors changes in the over-all scheme of things. Already as of 12:45pm, showers and some thunder is migrating across Central Florida into the Orlando area heading toward the east coast. Cloud coverage is holding on but thinning rapidly in many areas other than an area over South Florida which will be moving out in to the mid afternoon. With little chance of a sea breeze north of Sebastian Inlet, suspect most storms over Central Florida will not be terribly strong though some stronger wind gusts in the mid 30 mph to near 40 mph is always possible as was the case yesterday. The greater threat today will exist more than likely over South Florida where a solid sea breeze on the east coast has already set up over Dade/Broward/.Palm Beach Counties.

SUNDAY: Ridge axis at the low levels will work north toward Central Florida allowing the sea breeze to come into play. Much of what occurs tomorrow will be contingent upon how quickly cloud coverage clears out over night tonight , allowing the atmosphere more time to destabilize. Steering will again be toward the east side but at a much slower pace, so heavier rainfall totals could occur on Sunday in 'the chosen yet to be known of' areas, mainly inland as it would appear now. The ridge axis will work north toward I-10 going into late Monday and remain there at least the first half of next week.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Still looks like there could be a few coastal showers a few mornings with lingering deep precipitable water values in the 1.65 - 1.8" range, though this is not a given. More likely will be thunderstorms mainly along to west of I-95, and same holds true equidistant from the immediate west coast most of the first half of next week. The GFS is flailing on whether another upper level trough will press the ridge axis south to at least Central if not South Central toward next weekend which would then favor more toward the east side of the state again, either way, steering looks to be the typical 'very weak', which would support low level convergence from sea breezes and lake breeze interactions being the main cause of activity (typical summer like pattern).

Early Onset of Showers/Storms, Heavier Activity Concentration East and SE Coasts

Radar and Satellite show showers have already erupted West Side
and should move generally to the east at 15-22mph through late morning
Small chance some stronger activity could amass OR larger
rainfall totals will result somewhere along the east coast by end of day
but exactly where is a tough call. Big totals occurred yesterday
exceeding 3-4" near Martin County 

TODAY: Good chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm (perhaps more than one) in many locations today with early onset of activity and the KSC sounding coming in with a 500mb temperature of -10C, which is cold for this time of year. Winds aloft from the west at 20 kts combined with the cold air could result in strong but sub-severe winds gusts in the vicinity of storms and in heavier downpours, but lack of sea breeze on the east coast makes things tricky on the truly strong storm call.

FULL MOON AT 6:00 AM

Due to the stronger winds of at least 15 kts closer to ground level, a sea breeze might be hard to come by except toward far southeast Florida.

SATURDAY: Yet again cold air aloft, but steering could slow down a bit, and hence a better chance of a sea breeze further north, otherwise, not much change but inevitably each and every day differs from the others, so we'll can play it as it comes and see what parameters are in place when that time comes.

BEACH FOLIAGE IN BLOOM HAS COMMENCED RECENTLY

SUNDAY: Sea breezes to be in place this day with continued cold air aloft due to an upper level open low pressure circulation. Suspect this day might have the strongest storms with the added bonus of low level convergence due to the sea breeze collison toward the east side of the state. Hard to say if storms will actually reach the east coast south of the Cape this day. There 'might' be some earlier day showers and some thunder near the beaches though, so that will be watched if one is concerned with early day outside activities in that area.

JETTY PARK PREPARATIONS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING

BEYOND: Monday-Wednesday could have some early morning showers at the beaches and just offshore, but beyond that point is where the GFS CONTINUES to bring a tropical entity in the form of a sold CAT 1 if not CAT 2 hurricane across South and Central Florida (the previous run showed Central and North Florida), impacting the state by June 24th and crossing the state on the 25th. Again, this is too far out in time to place reliance on and the model has been showing something tropical to occur in the extended time frame since late May. Otherwise, the surface to low level ridge axis resides near I-10 with the neat result being early east coast sea breeze advancement toward the Center of the State and best chances of storms well west of I-95 each day.

 

LONE BEACH STAND, CAPE CANAVERAL

Storms Again This Afternoon

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral on Wednesday

TODAY: Very tricky blog post today. A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved across South Florida in the very wee hours of the morning spreading a variety of clouds across South and Central Florida. Models have been showing close to no showers or storms at all today as a result, but as evidenced by peeking outside , the cloud coverage quickly moved out post haste and the atmosphere is in quick recovery mode as of noon time. A severe thunderstorm warning away from that overnight activity near Tally is currently in place, with some other activity near Gainesville even at this hour (12:10pm). 

With clouds clearing but some more high clouds on the way for parts of Central, it still looks like storms would be possible today, some strong just about anywhere but mainly near the East Coast and where outflow/lake breeze interactions occur. The air aloft is not as cold as models had depicted it would be so the chance of actual severe storms is minimal, though some pulse severe are always possible. 

The main hazards will be localized nuisance flooding especially for areas that have been getting consecutive days of hefty rainfall totals, and lightning.  Perhaps some small hail as well after 4:30pm especially. Suspect that for heavier storms moving off shore there would be some Special Marine Warnings issued, and the chance of waterspouts can't be totally tossed out today .

What not to be doing when cloud to ground lightning is imminent.  (perhaps the blogger should take that advice as well)

Strong storm chances was broad brushed as it was opted that model forecasts are useless today. Watch for a boundary to work south from North Florida as occurred yesterday which might have some impact on Volusia, Brevard, Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake Counties   for greater coverage. The Lake Okeechobee breeze could also play in today

See Notes above under image: Also to mention, the east coast sea breeze should remain pegged very close to the beaches today with steering from the WSW-SW near 15 knots, storms would have no problem moving off shore, but winds just above ground appear light enough and the pressure gradient at the surface is not too strong to all out remove any chance of a sea breeze today. Activity might get going just a bit later than yesterday Central Florida along the east coast, and even later South Florida which as can be seen above completely cleared out after all.

BEYOND: Looks like a chance of storms as well on Friday and into Saturday with better chances of sea breeze convergence storms  from the coasts on Saturday but if not then, on Sunday.  Still watching the GFS doing it's thing with the Tropics as mentioned yesterday, the overnight model run actually showed a near hurricane over the state in about two weeks, but just prior to that it showed a tropical storm heading to Texas, so will ignore the antics until the time comes. It is hurricane season afterall.