Better Chance of Storms Toward the East Side Today

Offshore Shower - Cape Canaveral - This Morning

More of This kind of Stuff Later Today - Storm over West Rockledge / Cocoa Tuesday

TODAY: Not much change from what guidance and the blog has been advertising since last week. Low pressure over the Deep South is retrograding a bit, and ridge is building in across far South Florida. This will result in increased S-SW Flow aloft though not nearly strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. Activity has already begun over far South Florida and expect it will spread inland and north with time through early afternoon. Winds aloft on the KSC sounding were mainly almost from due South at the steering level to SSW and that will hold all day but perhaps come from an even more SW direction by mid-afternoon as the ridge builds in.  The net result would be theoretically faster moving storms today as opposed to almost no storm motion, though they might have a slow motion until reaching into full storm strength altitudes aloft.

Biggest threat will be lightning as temperatures at 500mb remain around -6C and only 10C at 700 mb which is fairly generic Julyish, thus stronger wind gusts and 'severe sized hail' not very likely. Warm this afternoon as well toward the east coast, warmer than the usual. Mixing ratios are also higher than yesterday, and with such high dew points, it will feel very uncomfortable with some heat indices working into the discomfort equation away from the sea breeze which will kick in by early afternoon. By this time yesterday (10:30AM) a discernible sea breeze was already noted at my location, but not today. That is an indicator of the subtle changes at the surface and aloft.  An individual was fatally struck by lightning yesterday on the west coast while walking on the beach, and two others injured. 

BEYOND: Tomorrow will be a variation of today, but on Friday we might need to be watching for the 'Strong" word before 'thunderstorms', as temperatures aloft are to cool down. On the other hand, activity will increasingly become less widespread as some slivers of dry air are going to come around top of the ridge axis. Today appears to be the last day that much of the state will be 'socked in' with the moisture, much of it will be guided off to the ENE later today and overnight. Thus, in coming days the bigger issue will be where the best moisture is located that will determine where the storms will occur.