Julyospheric Conditions to Result in Leap Frogging Storms

 

TODAY: It was too easy to only copy/paste here what was written on Thursday:

"MONDAY: A large upper level high mentioned a few posts ago is forecast still to impact much of the western 2/3 rds of the country going well into next week. Perhaps some record high temperatures as far north as North Dakota or Montana will be in the offing at some point and unusually warm from Phoenix (Arizona) up through West Texas and north as well as a result. 
A remnant of a mid level low currently close to SW Oklahoma might get trapped down into the NE Gulf of MExico which might go largely undetected for a few days and then manifest more toward Monday as a weak circulation almost sitting in place. 
Flow to become from SSE-S Monday into Tuesday (and we're back in the thunderstorm business) and steering becomes more from the SW going into Midweek through possibly into the weekend."

For the most part, this is the situation today, though a weak mid level ridge axis extends from the SE Gulf diagonally north - eastward from South Florida across Central. Steering today is close to zero , with light winds at all levels. Wouldn't be surprised to hear of a waterspout or funnel cloud report somewhere before the day is over in this sultry-still "Julyospheric" climate of higher humidities, light winds from ground to jet stream levels, and close to zero true atmospheric dynamics other than those which are thermally originated then manifested through colliding wind boundaries from the sea and lake breezes (except for the Florida Panhandle region).

It appears some east coast activity could go up west of the intracoastal from the Cape and South (very close to the coast if not on it from Ft. Pierce and south. This activity might collapse and send outflow westward, with a leap frog affect , new storms forming toward the west side particularly across South Florida later today.  Interior Central Florida condition will result in more of  a "Chutes and Ladders"  effect with storms going in any direct the roll of the dice propagates them.

TUESDAY: Not a significant enough of a change to get into today. The weak mid-level low pressure cyclonic circulation in the NE Gulf will be retrograding but little else changes, but notable transformations are on the horizon as noted would be the case in Thursday's post. The next frontal system and associative/supporting upper level trough will crest the ridge out West and slide south Wendesday into the weekend driving the Atlantic ridge axis which will be near South Central of Wednesday further south and through the weekend.

 

JUMPING AHEAD: 

Thursday - Sunday: chance of stronger storms as temperatures aloft might cool down a bit with sea breeze convergence still in play. Steering will increase from west to east by that point in time as the trough settles in across all of the Eastern Third of the U.S.