Very Sketchy Blog-Cast - Possible Potent Storms "At the Coast"?

TODAY: Very iffy forecast today. Some models show most of the rains today south half of the state whereas another shows just the opposite to be the case.

In either case, guidance shows unusually higher than normal Energy Helicity Index values from mainly Brevard County and north along and just offshore the coast which is about the only consistent factor. The short range guidance shows way too dry over South Florida today for much of anything to happen but MIA says to the contrary..so image covers both bases but with hesitancy.

The contributing factors for 'unusual activity' near the coast would be the combination of colder air aloft combined with the EHI as noted as well as a sea breeze potential south of the Cape. Additionally, there is slightly stronger winds aloft today for some slight 'evacuation' and tilting of updrafts.

 If one were to put all guidance together and average it out Brevard County coast to Southern Volusia would have the greatest chance of a strong storm, with possibly a waterspout off shore any where from there to the north but said   'with great hesitancy'. 

Otherwise, outside of any rains..very warm today with wide spread low-mid 90Fs prior to cloud cover.  

BEYOND: Earlier NAM guidance 'suggests' again the potential for another day like today on Wednesday with a shift in characterizations going into Thursday and Friday as the large scale pattern makes some subtle shifting around. 

The repercussions of these subtleties cannot be fully foreseen with much confidence as again guidance is inconsistent in the precipitation fields especially oscillating anywhere from almost no rain anywhere to between isolated and scattered coverage (favoring the east side for stronger storms if so but working more inland going to late week and especially the weekend.

WEEKEND: Latest guidance over night at least wasn't as steadfast on favoring only far Interior and west but more 'down the middle' for rain chances with more of a southerly rather than easterly flow setting up at the lower levels. Time will tell in the next few days what will be closer to the truth of the matter.

Good Chance of Rains - Thunder Today All of North to South Central Florida

TODAY: Will leave today's post brief as radar is matching fairly well with model guidance. Mid level energy sockets to move from west to east and east-south east today across the state independent of the usual  "heating-lifting-sea breeze convergence " diurnal atmospheric life cycle for the most part outside of parts of South Florida.

Image above shows  general;y the west to east progression of most of the rains, though showers could pop up even earlier than the linear progression above depicts in some areas. Rains could linger for a while after passage of the leading edge and some random activity might re-develop late in the day toward the west coast (mainly) Best chance of thunder would be along the leading edge of the activity but so far severe storms are not expected for the most part but not 100 percent exclusively, just very unlikely.  

TUESDAY-WEEKEND Colder air aloft would or could result in stronger storms, but on the other hand it might mean earlier initiation. Will see what happens on Tuesday in how it plays out as earlier initiation would not allow for sea breeze convergences to work their magic as well, and thus lack of stronger storms. 

It's a bit of a guessing game through Thursday perhaps as the ridge axis way south lifts north to Central Florida and then eventually north of Central by the weekend if not by Friday leaving the east coast high and dry for the Fourth of July outside of showers that might move on shore. Overall, storm coverage is not being shown to be very high as atmospheric moisture levels might not be quite as high as could be otherwise and/or not at the right levels. Will have to wait that one out as well..precluding the chance of antecedent cloud cover on any given day which would be a debilitating factor for better storm growth.

Similar to Saturday - Stronger Storms North

Anticrepuscular Rays

Anticrepuscular rays

Anticrepuscular rays or antisolar rays are similar to crepuscular rays, but seen opposite the sun in the sky.Anticrepuscular rays are near-parallel, but appear to converge at the antisolar point because of linear perspective.Anticrepuscular rays are most frequently visible near sunrise or sunset. Crepuscular rays are usually much brighter than anticrepuscular rays

TODAY: Slight chance of a quick shower almost anywhere though at time the KSC Sample of the Atmosphere aloft showed too dry for much of anything though expect that was temporary per RAP model guidance and precipitation coverage depicted on the High Rez-Rapid Refresh, HRRR. 

Most activity will take the form of 'mere' rain showers, though thunder could occur along the east side east mainly of I-95 except South Florida where I-95 runs much closer to the coast. Better chances of any thunder there and east of Lake Okeechobee either side of the Lake Shadow and perhaps near the Cape briefly as well or north of Melbourne Beach though most thunder if any will occur perhaps just off shore the east coast north of Ft Pierce. 

Better chances of thunder also east coast North Volusia and north, with some stronger storms yet further north and west across the Panhandle.

MONDAY: Similar set up, likely with some variables so at this time no need to allude to that time in depth OTHER THAN there might be greater moisture further south, such that parts of North Central could end up in a similar situation to the one the region closer to I-4 is in today.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Transition day as ridge axis at the lower levels lifts a bit further north allowing better sea breeze convergence activities to resume ...suspect these two days will be a bit similar with perhaps another transition going into later in the week. Temperatures aloft are continuing to shall a fall (colder aloft) and thus would be watching for stronger storms than what will be experienced Today and Monday.

NEXT WEEKEND: By next weekend sea breeze convergence and steering might for several days favor interior and west before another trough begins to carve across the country and flip flop the pattern, but that is too far out in time and subject to change.

I Know What You Did Last Summer

Last Summer on June 26th

TODAY: Much more brisk SW-W component to the winds just above 'the deck' with little chance of inland east coast sea breeze expansion beyond perhaps US1 or I-95 and that might be generous.

Best chance of sea breeze from the Cape and South. 

Showers already on parade here and there marching eastward but not expecting much from them, with some thunder underway far Southeast Coast. The true nature of what is to eventually (or not) emerged will be revealed as the west coast sea breeze makes the move east later today, but exactly how late that will be is the key to much of the forecast.

 If it comes in just late enough but not too late localized helicities along the sea breeze front combined with strong convergence and post-peak daytime heating could yield some storms  east side with quite a punch..but if it comes too soon or too late the collision will be nearly all for naught. 

Will err on the side of caution for the areas shown in graphic. Outside of the best storm chance region appears mainly showers with perhaps some bolts possible .

BEYOND: Sunday might yet be ever more sparse on the rain chances and hard on the Mercury Rising at the coast. Biggest hazard might be hot white sand on bare feet and sunburn with a high SPF Factor and UV Index to boot.  Pass the tannin' butter, but not much surf.  Again, chances of showers mainly in some isolated areas but as usual this might change but not likely by much.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance a bit sparse on Monday then ups the ante Tuesday and beyond as sea breezes converge with greater force just inland but still favoring the east coast. Colder air aloft as well enters the equation. Beyond Wednesday no overall dry slots are foreseen. 

Some Iso-Strong Storms Late East Central - Central

GET OFF THE BEACH!!

TODAY: A bit similar to yesterday with some caveats with a later start already and less activity far east central. Another area coming off the Gulf near Cedar Key like yesterday but not as strong. Steering aloft a bit stronger toward the east than yesterday..and the day started out a bit drier in the mid-levels over south half of state. Additionally, model guidacne is not as aggresive with rainfall coverage by a long shot as it was yesterday. As a result...not as clear cut.

Storm over or near Eau Gallie toward Melbourne just after  12 Noon Thursday  

Otherwise, given the latest short-term model (namely HRRR - High Resolution Rapid Refresh) trends , and current conditions accompanied by satellite animations will play UP the rain chances yet still regardless of the aforementioned for portions of South Central and Central interior and east as noted in the following image.  Sea breezes to meet more toward the Central and East side late today. Yesterday's earlier activity far East Central through a wrench in the east meets west sea breeze collision equation but so far today this does not seem will be a factor. Even so, some strong storms did form, with some warnings going out or Special Weather Statements.  Believe over all though activity will cover a smaller area today and linger for a while perhaps even to after dark.

ISO - Isolated , the Exception rather than the rule

SATURDAY- SUNDAY: Warm and less activity as sea breezes will meet far east side. Suspect some storms will go up fairly late for the most part very close to the east coast with some iso - showers and few storms elsewhere unless a fly-in the ointment event occurs early in the day along the west coast which could through the whole synoptic scale set up out of whack so time will tell.

MONDAY- TUESDAY  Watching to see if there is an increased chance of strong to marginal severe, but so far official forecasts haven't been saying much about it.

Broad Coverage of Showers and Thunder Today, Some Near - Severe Possible Early Next Week?

Sunrise Thursday Morning, June 25, 3025

TODAY: Really not much change today from yesterday with more widespread storm coverage to evolve during the late morning through mid-afternoon with the show - hogs coming on stage late afternoon to early evening when things really get rolling inland from both and all coasts. Chance of lingering rains somewhere Central to South Central well past dark could drip out the last vestiges of the day's convective elements.

Some activity might be able to work back toward the coast as far south as the Brevard Coast in general to offshore (in a weakened state) but at least it would be some rain much needed. Otherwise, some stronger storms are possible but nothing 'extreme is foreseen' so far relevant to say an average storm day

BEYOND: As was noted yesterday ...west to east steering flow will begin over the weekend, latest guidance suggests at least a small chance that the east coast sea breeze might be able to form on some days from Saturday through Tuesday but too soon to say for sure.  But if so, some strong to near severe storms would be possible given the colder air aloft shown to be in place for a few days early next week (colder than what is currently aloft).

If so, it wouldn't be getting very far inland from the beaches. Moisture availability over general regions will have to remain on hold until each day arrives.  Finally some summer like weather though  as the first day of celestial summer has just passed.

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Synoptic Scale Pattern Shift Could Bring Needed East Coast Rains At Last

Sunrise Skies (Looking West) Wednesday Morning

TODAY: Pattern shift advertised by the GFS model referred to in a previous post seems to be locking in with greater confidence as of the over night runs. A heat ridge (believe it is referred to as a Sonora Heat Ridge) to build over the Desert Southwest Region with rising heights as far north as Southern Canada with a response of falling 500mb heights to the east will result in 'Ridge to the west  -  trough over the East'. This will bring much cooler temperatures to many areas of the country but also for Florida change the storm steering currents closer to NORMAL for June and early July...finally.  

Heat to build over this weekend into early next week (shown is around the 5000 ft level AGL)
Note the winds over Florida at that level by then are from the west at 15kts

The Response higher up at 20,000 ft is winds from the west at 15-20 knots as well

Today: A bit unexpectedly a weak mid level low pressure circulation of sorts has formed over Southern to Central Georgia. This will result in a very weak mid level flow from the west toward the east today, but so weak the change will barely be discernible for most, especially people that are inland. 

For the east coast, this might encourage late day (mostly early evening) cloud cover to increase, with a nudge of the sea breeze collision perhaps another 10 miles further toward the east than yesterday in various locations along the north south line running down the state. Strongest storms would be late after 6:pm from western Osceola County and north through or near the Ocala region toward Gainesville or even east of that line perhaps over toward the Suwanee River Basin 

Another 'hot spot' could be closer toward Sanford eventually depending on how far inland the east coast sea breeze has made it. Slight chance some activity could work back toward the east coast after dark north of SR 50 as light rain.

BEYOND: Not much change tomorrow but Friday there is a chance that steering might favor even more toward the east side as a large and powerful Heat Ridge builds over the Desert Southwest Region as noted in the above images (which were depictions for the Monday  next week time frame).

Heat Ridges can be very stubborn to break down...combined with the trough over the East as shown steering aloft will increase from west to east. There is a chance that by Saturday or Sunday through Tuesday a sea breeze on the east side will be hard to come by north of Ft Pierce or Melbourne. If so that would or could mean very warm at the coast but a decreased chance of rains as well without the added boost of a sea breeze collisions. Time will tell, as that is still a bit too far out in time.

Otherwise, by mid-week next week the ridge is expected to lift north more from well to the south which will weaken steering and allow sea breezes to work their magic, with the ridge axis across Florida then oscillating somewhere between mainly Central to South Central for an extended period. 

This would be the first time this summer that storms will not be continuously shoved to the left side of the state for a large percentage of the time. East coast could finally get some needed rains is the short and long of it.

Isolated Showers - Inland Storms Possible - One or Two Briefly Strong

Monday Sunrise at Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Might see a bit more activity inland today over yesterday. There was some late night activity as thought might occur up by the JAX area and other activity around the Tampa area into early morning. Both of those areas have resulted in an imbalance in the spread of instability with a slow start to the CU field in some locations -- additionally there is a chance that both areas of activity have left a boundary outside the perimeter of them..which might act as a catalyst for storm initiation later today. 

Otherwise, there appears to be a bit more moisture today with both the RAP and NAM showing drier conditions over South Florida / South Central which is forecast to recover going into mid afternoon...by which time the east coast sea breeze will have made its greatest inland progress from West Palm and South.

Could be a late day collision east of 27 running from near the Polk/Osceola County line snaking north and east a bit here or there toward far western Volusia/Sanford/ Ocala / Gainesville give or take about 20 miles either side of that line. Most active period might begin shortly after 4pm... through dark... some lingering inland activity well past dark.

Areas being considered, though might have noted  SW Florida as well

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Daily basis analysis regime has set in. Little change over all foreseen, but moisture availability might be in question -- overall a pattern shift   emerges on Thursday becoming   evident over the weekend as steering currents take hold with a west toward the eastside component.

SUMMER BEGINS 12:38 PM EDT - Small Chance of ISO-Strong / Severe Interior North/Central - Very Warm All Areas

Sunday Rising! Port Canaveral, June 21

TODAY: Summer begins in just 23 minutes from time of this typing celestially on Father's Day at 12:38PM EDT.

Also, there is a chance of some isolated (perhaps very isolated ) thunderstorms today, to severe-near severe limits due to wind gusts. 

Slower start and less cumulus cloud field could yield to another very warm to hot day with heat indexes close to criteria statement status. Model guidance across the boards and radar simulations all show much less activity today, and mostly no severe storms either, but regardless will take sea breeze convergence into account and call their bluff. The Meso-scale Analysis page has rather high values as of this hour (based on the RAP model) of Micro-burst Potential over north Florida, something to watch. There is also a hint that just perhaps we might end up seeing some night time activity along the east side of the state from near JAX south toward Sanford/Mims well past sunset toward even midnight. Such can occur, but is rarely ever actually forecast -- but worth the mention

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance has changed a little bit in regard to storm coverage by upping the interior rain chances back to what it was like the past two days across the interior with perhaps some activity moving off the east coast mainly north of I-4. 

Some stronger storms again possible all days with the temperature profiles being depicted and the less than overly saturated atmosphere in place allowing for dry slots in the mid-levels to permit more rapidly descending /cooling air masses to plummet earthward and spread out in all directions.

Storms over NE Orange County Country Saturday

LATE WEEK -NEXT WEEKEND: The trend continues as relayed in the previous post that activity might make  more "forward march!!" toward the east coast with increased steering currents -- unlike today where steering is close to NIL, but apparent motion if anything could form would be propagation along boundaries or activity being directed by boundaries remaining from yesterday.

"Magic Hours" Isolated Strong Storms Possible Down Spine of the State

Lightning Filled Storm on Nova Rd. Osceola County Friday

TODAY: Not a whole lot of changes from yesterday. Expect perhaps some early afternoon activity to form along the east coast sea breeze South and South Florida and work north and inland with time.

Other showers might then begin to form along the west coast sea breeze. Would watch for Okeechobee Magic though near Martin County to eastern Okeechobee or St. Lucie Counties earlier on as well where the east coast sea breeze meets the lake breze.

However, the ""Magic Hours" of 4:30 - 7:00pm would be the most likely time for strongest activities over the  interior as the sea breeze and outflow boundaries meet. After yesterday's activity, there might also be some latent boundaries remaining, lying in waiting for activation.  

Cool outflow winds gust  from stronger or converged activity could press back to some of the coast line Central and North Central regions ..especially east central from rain cooled air as occurred yesterday toward Brevard, accompanied by a 'gust front' arcus cloud. Though temperatures aloft are not especially cold there is quite a bit of dry air up there, and so some strong wind gusts could occur outside of the rains themselves related to outflow boundaries. Lightning number one hazard.  

SUNDAY: Storms again possible mainly Central and South, but moisture might be lacking for broader coverage

BEYOND: Monday through Wednesday looks to have more isolated in nature activity. The GFS continues to show a pattern shift beginning around Thursday which could, if correct, last until Tuesday of the following week. 

Severe Warned Storm East Central Florida Friday

This upcoming pattern would favor storms leaning toward the East Coast late day and early evening and even moving off shore if correct. That would be as a result of a strong ridge building northward from the Desert SW region and the rippled reply being a large upper level trough buckling south over the states east of the Mississippi. Continued monitoring of the longer range guidance will eventually tell the true story...but if the trend continues it might be safe to say it will be 'set in print' so to speak...by Monday contingent upon future model run consistency.

Sublime Pattern Change Could Bring Increased Storm Activity through Saturday

June 18th  2014 off the coast of Cape Canaveral

TODAY: As the remnant circulation of former TS Bill moves east across parts of Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri the persistent Atlantic Ridge axis which has been dominating the rather low activity of June has  temporarily  relaxed its  ' large coverage ' negating affects. 

The net affect will be to weaken the east to west steering currents of the past week allowing for sea breeze convergence/lake breeze boundaries to interact more effectively in the presence of a slight overall moisture increase. The GFS and NAM both show an up-tick in the westerly component at the 925mb (2000 ft level) which should aid in a slightly slower inland progression of the east coast sea breeze today while winds above that will be NW-N- and then light and variable as a mid-level high pressure bubble meanders across Central Florida.

 Overall, given the trend of the past few days (persistence),  there might be some marginally strong to severe storms once again over the interior with a bit more of a leaning toward the eastern side of the peninsula though not on the Barrier Islands exact (for example).

Strongest activity noted in red below is only an over generalized picture of where some isolated briefly warned storms might occur today, generally after 4:00-4:30pm through early evening.

There is a chance that the earliest activity will go over east central/central and outflow from this activity could result in the strongest of storms both to the south and north of that location in the early evening hours as the NAM had shown in previous runs, but nothing can be for certain in such a flow pattern. Broad brush strokes might be the best philosophy.

SATURDAY: Not much change other than that the west to east steering might be even a bit more persuasive over the north half of the peninsula...so that activity might be able to actually penetrate to the beaches north of Brevard County.

BEYOND: Not a whole lot of change other than the steering again relaxes and perhaps moisture levels will decrease storm activities back to the more atypical isolated fashion for this time of year that has been in place.

IN THE EXTENDED: The GFS has storms favoring the east side of the state to even moving offshore the east coast by next weekend for several days; although, it has shown this trend a few times in the past which never ended up evolving. If the GFS does finally verify now only a week out for several days in a row, the next factor would be yet still, 'But will there be enough moisture to quench the thirst of some moisture deprived coastal regions yet still?" Time will tell. 

Moisture availability, especially in situations  lacking a particular synoptic scale set up (e.g., lack of large scale affects) that would definitively advect  tropical  moisture to the regions, is a tough guess as it can vary widely on a daily basis...especially in regard to the far future.

Pattern Shift Overnight: - Storms (Isolated Strong - Late) Are Possible

TOUGH Forecast Today - Model Guidance Varies

TODAY: Long awaited pattern shift began overnight and is in full swing during the day into tonight through Wednesday and Thursday. For quite some time thunderstorm activity late day has been being directed toward the west or directed little at all. The pattern shift will bring storms more toward the east side of the state today, and possibly more so as we enter the early evening time frame north of Vero Beach.  

Steering will remain a bit slow until MAYBE late day after sea breezes will have come close to merging over the interior counties. Some activity might be able to make it back to the East Coast beach regions 'full swing' after 7:pm or so particularly from Brevard County and north as winds at the 2000 ft level are forecast by the latest RAP model to increase. By that time the east coast sea breeze will be well west of I-95 though, so any storms to make it back to the coast might have quite a time of it outside of unpredictable boundary mergers along with outflow from early activity. 

Some stronger storms seem possible around Lake Okeechobee  (Martin County for example as well as on the west and southwest side of the Lake) and over East Central mainly after 5:pm through 8:pm (in general) . 

Lighter shower and/or thunder activities might be able to begin as the sea breezes move inland, mainly over South Central/South since that is where the deeper moisture will reside to start the day...and parts of the west coast which appears for now to be the more active sea breeze today initially.

he strongest of activity will be contingent upon where more than two boundary mergers coincide late today / early evening. Biggest hazard as usual, lightning.

WEDNESDAY: Steering will be toward the east coast more definitely, but there might well be an 'early onset' along the west coast sea breeze front which would march east rather quickly. Cloudiness and lack of better instability as a result might remove the strong storm chance, but as usual, we'll just have to see what comes out from today and tonight to set this portion in stone.

THURSDAY: Perhaps another better day of stronger storms due to stronger boundary / sea breeze mergers and a later start to activities. Most activity might not reach the east coast directly (as in the direct beaches) except toward and north of I-4. Stronger storms would be near and west of I-95 and well away from the east coast for most of South and South Central.

FRIDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK: Pattern shift to the old early east coast showers/ late day storms far interior and west coast. Drier air might come into play initially like Friday through Sunday, but with time and more moisture the east coast mainly from The Cape and South might see early ocean shower activity commence as was the case the past two mornings.

Stronger Storms (to Marginal Severe ) Possible Again Today

Severe Storm over West Central Texas

TODAY: After several 'severe reports' yesterday from hail size 1" or greater and 'damaging' wind gusts, today could be another day of active weather but for different reasons as an upper level trough and associated low circulation deepens a bit over the U.S. Deep South. Jet stream winds today will be stronger aloft as cold temperatures there prevail, but surface based instability will be a bit limited due to the antecedent cloud cover now in place. 

Regardless, sufficient lapse rates, some upper level energy (vorticity) , cold air and local circulations could get the show rolling. The location of strongest storms will likely be just away from the coast toward the interior but exactly where is difficult to pinpoint as cloud cover tends to offset the sea breeze collision effect either in regard to timing, strength, location or all of those combined. Today's activity will be abetted by jet stream winds, cold air aloft, and the disturbances aloft over the usual generic sea breeze collisions alone (which is the typical summer regime). If cloud cover gets to dense and sea breezes remain weak stronger storms might be hard to come by, but beneficial rainfall toward the east coast would be helpful regardless of storm intensities.

BEYOND: Better chances of storms tomorrow appears to be over Southern Portions of Florida as jet stream winds will be strongest there. Other areas for storms will be contingent on the amount of antecedant cloud cover once again. Guidance differs in this regard, but over all there should be  decreasing rain chances for afternoon activity toward the east side of the state until around Sunday after a disturbance in whatever form it takes lifts out of the western Caribbean and well out and away from Florida. 

There are hints some drier air might begin to pass over the state as well in coming days or high clouds could also be an issue. Will play it day by day .