"Strong" Storms "Possible" Friday - Saturday

August 29, 2016 Off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: One more day of slightly warmer than normal temperatures as air mass modification begins the slow, post-tropical translation through the vertical extent of the atmosphere. 

Temperatures aloft remain in that way of warmer aloft as tropical air-masses are. On the other hand, with the wind fields of the past days having been resolved away which prevented sea-breeze/lake breeze convergence manifestations, we should be able to realize a better chance of storms or showers later in the day near the I-75 to Route 27 corridor and northward all along I-10 where showers and thunder are already underway.

Wouldn't expect 'wide-spread' thunder to be at hand. Better chances of 'thunder itself. appears to be over Southwest Florida northward toward Lake County (in general) with the better 'late day' chance in the more northern arena.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  "Summer Resumes" - For now will take the 'sweepingly broad over-generalization' approach to these days as there are specifics being implied by guidance that could potentially put a major crimp in the forecast, especially in the areas north of I-4 where cloud cover 'might be more prevalent' throughout the day. Big 'if" though. So for now...

Upper level temperatures , especially at 500mb are forecast to cool toward the -8- -10C realm with mid-level temperatures a bit slower to catch up (if at all). Additionally, there are implications of the upper levels being nearly saturated the more north of SR 528 one goes. which could mean that cloud cover could hinder 'strong' storm development in those areas. 

The issue further south is a remnant dry layer around the 700mb level. This could either hinder storm strength or add to it, depending on how vertically deep that layer will actually end up being.

Regardless, given continuity in the GFS model going into two days now and between 4 model runs will load the gun and prepare to pull the trigger on making the 'Stronger Storm' call. 

Was tempted to write 'even isolated marginally severe', especially near I-95 from Ormond Beach south toward Vero Beach late in the day" but that might be over doing it a bit. 

Either way...for either one or both days...shower and cloud coverage will be increasing..most persistently it appears over the the northern 1/3 of the state, where even pre-dawn showers with thunder might be in process near the big bend and into the pan handle regions.   

South-Southwest Flow to Southwest will be in place but not so strong as to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming and making progress toward I-95 as it appears now. Overall, Saturday does not look like a good day for late - day activities.

SUNDAY: Temperatures aloft warm as light easterly flow resumes it's course. Moisture availability becomes much more 'spotty' in nature so making a call as to where rain may or may not fall becomes increasingly difficult. 

Overall, chance of earlier day (pre-sunrise to late morning) showers might be in the calling for certain areas along the east coast,  working inland and increasing toward the west coast later in the day.

EXTENDED: The general pattern noted for Sunday persists through at least Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Latest GFS shows an early season 'cold front' making the sweep into the Deep South, even Northern Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia regions. If so, a more 'thundery' pattern state-wide, even perhaps toward the immediate east coast might enter the picture. Assuming the GFS is correct.

"IRMA": Seeing talk wide and broad over the internet concerning how this Storm System 'might' be a threat to almost anywhere along the U.S. East Coast. In some regard, suspect some of the amped up chat is due to Harvey's Impact and fears of 'more of the same' are at the fore-front; however, those fears do not make anything else any more or less true than would be the case for any other system, whether Harvey had been or not.

As of early this morning, the only model that shows a potential 'threat' to be the case out of several that I've looked at is the ECMWF (European) model. The CFSV2 model shows a similar more southerly track toward the Southeast Bahamas  with the storm being approximately 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral next Saturday moving northward...other guidance points to more of a threat to Bermuda and possibly the Northeast States (if even that). 

Point blank, it's just too soon to say, and that a 'threat' is not utterly out of the question.