Frequent To "Excessive' Lightning In Storms Possible Later Today

Leading Arcus Extension of Storm's "Self' Invades  Cape Canaveral on August 29, 2014

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday's thinking. Pattern of the days of the past week proved itself to be changing late yesterday, but more so well past midnight as storms continued to be generated and even move off the east coast north of Brevard County with a last little dog leg working down to Cape Canaveral around 3AM over the intracoastal - before the 'fumes  from the heating of the day' had been exhausted. Activity likely was abetted by slightly cooler temperatures  and  upper level divergence  per latest Mesoscale model plot late this morning.

TODAY: Cooler air 'up top' (aloft) is 'anticipated' though the morning sounding at KSC shows that is not the case; at least from which would not warrant for much beyond garden variety thunderstorms with a 700mb temperature of 10C and 500mb no cooler than a -6C. 

The 700mb temperature might not drop all that much today but the 500mb would begin to go down after noon or so to around -8.5C. Much to say today in favor of strong storms mostly due to frequent to excessive lightning and heavy rainfall in short amount of time leading to localized short term flooding in prone areas if late yesterday is to be taken as an indication; on the other hand, if things do not come together as anticipated it might just be like another summer day, especially since 700mb will remain rather on the warm side. 

All in all, for now anticipating that the peak convergence of outflows from the north and west and the weight behind them meeting up with the east coast sea breeze which as of now appears will make it about 20-25 miles inland (tops) if not much less across Central Volusia and northward (but further inland toward South Central)   would begin to the north first then work south and increase in generally over more areas after 3:30pm  - and of that,  could 'peak out/ over Central Volusia and southward toward Central / Eastern Osceola County, Orange County , Seminole County, Northern to Central Brevard County then on down to South   Brevard  and Indian River much later in the afternoon.

Further south other  activities could also form as a result of the Lake Okeechobee/Sea breezes along with the potential for outflows from the north to work south. All in all could be seeing lightning in a few locations well after dark, mainly over South Central Florida to offshore.

SATURDAY: There will be a difference on Saturday with possibly a bit less coverage and not quite as much intensity. Better coverage appears will be from Southern Volusia County southward, especially South Central Florida late in the afternoon. Always a chance that the more 'Central Region' might see more of a relatively, 'early onset day' as opposed to very late in the afternoon.

SUNDAY: GFS and to some degree NAM guidance appears to be agreeing on a remnant boundary across Central is where moisture will be the greatest. Overall state coverage goes down significantly , with the best focus apparently on Central Florida , even to the coast or just in from the coast for showers/storms after 4pm to dark. Nothing 'strong' per se is foreseen on this day .

MONDAY: Though activity could be about, it will mainly be well inland toward the west coast; there is a marked decrease on Monday for the most part.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: For now will say either Tuesday or Wednesday the coverage might well increase, perhaps significantly from Monday as a frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough works into the Southeast States and flow becomes more southerly to even a tad SSW aloft. GFS was showing 'that day' to be Wednesday but recently points to Tuesday. A bit skeptical on that but it's several days away anyway with plenty of time to reassess.

It is this same 'Trough-iness' over the Eastern U.S. and down to Florida   that might have an influence on the future track of Hurricane IRMA.How long it remains in place, to what depth south it extends, and how far south Irma actually is on perhaps Wednesday could all be factors on the future track of the storm as well as how well the ridge to the north of the storm maintains its western most grip. Any relaxing of the ridge to the north to provide a northward escape which the storm can 'touch'...it will certainly take. 

On the other hand - until all things become self-evident  would expect model guidance to go back and forth in various ways as to the extended range forecast in all kinds of fashion. Point being not to hedge one's bets on anything  at this point.

Beyond IRMA there is one other system that perhaps might come into view in the next two weeks...somewhere along the same latitude as where IRMA is not located and well east of the Virgin Islands.