Blog Post Forecast ONLY
(Risk of 'Strong to Severe Storms Associated with Strong Wind Gusts over 55mph -
Most Activity will fall 'below' severe (damaging) thresholds)
Rest of the Weekend
No change for previous days. Increasing cloud cover from North to South possible
over night. Sunday morning across Central will likely dawn with more clouds than recent Clear Mornings and as such morning low temperatures will also be 'warmer' (near 70F possible) as opposed
to the 'mid-upper 60Fs'. No real chance of rain foreseen south of I4 on Sunday with the cloud cover which might get 'extensive' late in the day especially. It will become most evident as the sun gets much lower in the sky (as it has been continually doing now seeming every day).
Monday
Cold front to cross all of Central From I-4 and South
During the course of time since the previous post model guidance (at least the NAM and GFS) has come to much closer agreement in regard to THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
The 'Timing" has slowed down 'CONSIDERABLY" from the previous post from 'Early Monday morning' to now Late in the Afternoon (at least as far as the Florida east coast South of I4 is concerned).
For example, what looked like an 8AM frontal passage for 'East Central Florida" is now
forecast to occur closer toward 6PM Monday evening (!) Thankfully, then - we won't be wasting Day Light with Cold Weather moving in (albeit, we could be seeing a lot of cloud cover and some storm activity moving in).
Most likely the Lake - Orange-Seminole-Volusia County areas will see rain chances pick up with Strong (possibly severe storms) anytime from around 10AM through about 3PM - that risk then progresses east and southward to East Central and South Central prior to and during sunset hours. Granted with all the cloud cover it's going to be 'looking pretty dark out any way hours prior to actual sunset'.
Beyond the risk for rain and strong/severe wind rainfall TOTALS do not look very large at all (IF at all in some areas) due to the quick storm motion (strong shear aloft and we'll have a 100 KNOT JET Stream overhead while the 'storms are going on).
MONDAY OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY
Colder and MUCH drier air will swiftly find headway behind the cold front. It will be EASILY Discernible if you are out side that (when) the front has gone through.
The temperature drop will be noticeable but not radical. Either way, morning lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to near 50F (a good 20 degrees colder than all these previous mornings) will be no picnic when coupled with very brisk winds gusting to around 24-28mph if you are out and about.
Very Cool All Day Tuesday and would not be surprised if most areas of Central and North Central do not even reach 60F . Expecting highs in mid-upper 50Fs for the most part except Far South Central/South Florida.
WEDNESDAY MORNING
Likely the coldest morning of the next few however, wind will quickly wane after dark Tuesday evening. High pressure at the lower levels will be moving overhead and the pressure gradient as such to decrease significantly. Wednesday might dawn with winds generally less than or near 5mph (esp. inland); I suspect there will be a wind along the beaches/barrier island because of the 'yet warmer near shore and river temperatures" alone - the warmer waters can produce a breeze even apart from any pressure gradients this time of year. Hence, there might still be a 'wind chill effect' at the beaches even if it's not as literally 'cold' at those locations.
WARM UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH-
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SEVERE AGAIN
QUICK warm up noticeable Wednesday afternoon,
with another front / Storm System on the way.
Warmer both on Wednesday and Thursday morning-afternoon with details to follow.
Another storm system might be in the making for the Eastern GULF of Mexico
to impact most of Florida by Friday (or Thursday night even) This storm system (if it forms) has it appears now to have a greater potential to produce severe weather than the up and coming one
