Potential "Rain Event" Coming Sunday Night - Much Cooler Next Week

 

TODAY: Continued cloudy into Tonight, overnight and early Saturday. A 'cool front' will be slicing south and across the state late today into tonight and reach Central Florida proper very close to the 6-7AM time frame and continue southward. 

Most (if any) rainfall associated with the boundary will occur north of I-4, as such most areas will see little to no rainfall with the front, or if so only for a brief period. 

Temperatures across North and North Central will be much cooler Saturday afternoon and be a bit cooler Central whereas Far South Central / South Florida will not feel the effects of the boundary nearly as much.

SUNDAY: MEANWHILE, an upper level disturbance in the Mean Upper Level flow will be approaching the state and instigate the generation of a poorly organized low-mid level low pressure area aloft which will be enough to produce LIFT in the atmosphere as it approaches the latitude of South Central Florida (as it looks now). 

This could cause the old surface front to lift back north somewhat, but the real 'weather' associated with this system will not be 'surface based' - but rather mid-level. 

Regardless, guidance (both the NAM and GFS) are showing a 'swatch' of heavier rainfall or at least larger rainfall totals across ALL of South Central Florida from mostly south of a line running from near Brooksville toward Mims/Titusville area (on the north) and from near Sarasota to near Vero Beach/Fort Pierce (to the south). 

This looks like it would be a 'good moderate but steady rainfall' type of situation. The TIMING of the most concentrated rainfall as of the latest guidance is mainly from around 7-8pm Sunday night to near sunrise to just after sunrise Monday. 

Hence, most of it will be overnight (under the assumption guidance doesn't change). Rainfall totals are showing to be in the 1.00 - 1 3/4" range but there could be much higher totals in some locations, much lower in others. Either way, LATE Sunday (as the rainfall begins) through to at least mid-Morning Monday does not look very pleasant.

Current Satellite Image for FRIDAY afternoon over Florida

BEYOND: Monday will eventually see clearing once this potential rain event situation moves out - especially LATE in the day as colder drier air filters south. Once again, like this week, TUESDAY will be a very cool and breezy day with highs not likely reaching 60F across Central/North Florida - then Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as winds die down we will see again a cold morning though it does not look like it will be quite as cold as our previous bout was. 

MUCH COOLER Tuesday - Friday Morning: The stretch of cold weather continues all the way through Friday morning - again, highs Wednesday might not reach 60F either - we will be having NW winds but they will die down for us on Wednesday and Thursday - as high pressure should be getting east of Florida overnight Thursday night   we might see a warm up ESPECIALLY along the East Coast over night Thursday into Friday along the immediate east coast - then from there on we see a rapid warm up to much warmer for NEXT weekend.

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: Given the current upper level pattern and based on persistence it appears we might be in for another very complex system to set up along the Northern to Central Gulf coming mid December. There is a variety of solutions appearing from potentially stormy to potentially very cold to even just a prolonged Warming Trend. In general, mid-December is going to give us another SURPRISE weather situation necessitating that all forms of outer wear be at hand.