Potential For "Overnight Warm Up" Along A1A Tonight

 The end of the coldest days of the 2020-21 Winter Season so far are drawing to an end after yet another 'cold' day today and again tomorrow morning (mainly inland and toward the West Side of the State). NNW to N winds during the day today will keep it quite cool (well below normal); however, winds are expected to become more N-NNE-NE overnight tonight, mainly right at the beaches (mostly from near The Cape and South). 

Most guidance is hinting at at WARM UP after midnight at some point between 2AM-5AM along the outermost barrier islands of Brevard (along A1A strip) southward toward Southeast Florida and around to the Keys -- that is to say, what I'd consider to be 'often the Warmest Location in the Entire Country' on some winter (and fall) mornings. Yes, the warmest location in the entire country is fairly often the Barrier Islands of Brevard and south through The Keys, and by tomorrow morning we might have one of those cases.

Though temperatures might fall toward dark I'm thinking they will level off in these locations and then even begin to rise slowly at some point after midnight. Thus, for those especially along and even East of A1A you might find warmer temperatures at 5AM tomorrow morning than what it will be at say 8-10PM tonight by as much as as 5-10F degrees (!). 

We will see. 

Along with any warming will be cloud cover as well. The Latest HRRR implies we could see some High Cirrus (rather dense) begin to stream overhead during the night which alone could stop or slow down temperature falls, but then we could see some patches of low cloud advect onshore as well. As you can see , there is PLENTY of low clouds just off shore the Florida East Coast as of NOON TIME this Saturday afternoon, as shown in this Noon time visible Satellite Image below.

SUNDAY: Apart from the 'potential' overnight warming discussed above, it will warm up anyway after sunrise (well into the mid-upper 60Fs) tomorrow, depending on overall cloud cover (though). Too many clouds would keep a better warm up at bay. Regardless, after Sunday morning the cold spell is OVER at long last for several days to come.

MONDAY: And that is not the end of it for the east coast. Latest 4KM NAM shows continued 'surging' of warmer air to encroach on the East Coast overnight Sunday evening into Monday Morning. Yes, Monday Morning along the east coast could well be in the mid-60Fs south of the Cape right at the beaches, or at least in the lower 60Fs. A 20F degree warm up from Friday and Saturday mornings...that is going into Early Tuesday.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Normal to a bit above 'normal' temperatures as we warm up. Looks like a chance of Rain Showers could occur mainly along The Treasure Coast (Vero Beach toward West Palm Beach area) however sometime going into Sunday night and/or Monday, but Brevard looks to stay dry at this point.

NEW YEAR'S EVE - DAY: Thursday Night Midnight is New Year's Eve Night going into 2021. At current time the GFS model has a cold front stretched North/South Down the state of Florida on this Very Night. Timing this far out is questionable, so at this point it's 'the general idea'. It appears there 'might' be again the 'risk' or 'threat' of severe weather with this frontal boundary (mainly due to strong wind gusts). The model is showing a better chance of RAINfall though (at this point) than it ever did with the previous front.  So the overall gist is, NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT, especially after 9PM could become increasingly risking of rain chances, even storms - and be quite breezy - But at least it won't be cold (!)..it will be a WARM EVENING if the front holds off until after midnight, at least if one lives east of I95.

NEW YEAR's DAY: Latest Guidance has really slowed down on the timing of this next front AND held back on 'Temperature Impacts' from it as well. Actually, it shows the front not making a 'clean passage' across the state until well into the afternoon on New Year's Day - this leaves a lot up in the air (therefore) as to when exactly cloud cover and/or rain chances will end (if not begin even as well) during the time frame from Sunset New Year's Eve to Sunset New Year's Day.

 That entire Day, therefore, is still one big Question Mark in regard to Rain chances and as such temperatures as well. It looks certain at this point that New Year's Day will not be a cold day, but rather see temperatures in the Lower 70Fs (at this point).

FOLLOWING NEW YEAR'S DAY: No Big COLD Spell. Temperatures look now to be generally around 'normal' to a tad below with the next front is about it. Lows at the beach perhaps in the lower 50Fs and bit colder inland, with highs in the upper 60Fs, lower 70Fs with one Big Caveat. The GFS is showing a Very Sudden Change to occur just off the Florida East Coast overnight Sunday with a Coastal Trough forming into a Closed Low that gets quite potent. 

Rain chances near the coast pick up and winds make a rapid shift to the north...all within a 12 hour window. This Time Frame bears watching - looks very   'skeptical' at this point to me - regardless, it has been rather consistent in the attempt to pick up that 'something' might go on during this time frame which bears watching.

Coldest Christmas Since 1995 Possible - Storms/Cold Rain on The Way Tonight

 The advertised potent cold front is well on its way early this afternoon now passing through the Panhandle Region. Ahead of the front wind is going to be picking up out of the southwest and be gusting at times as cloud coverage comes and goes. 

Winds at the surface will be SSW-SW whereas winds in the mid-upper levels are from the west to west-northwest. Animation of visible satellite imagery clearly shows low level clouds moving northward at the same time high clouds are beginning to stream in from the west. This 'change of wind with height' (and strong winds aloft at that) is the main-key to the severe weather potential though there is instability as well mainly south of I-4 across the Eastern Half of the state. Thus, for BLOG Purposes highlighted only that area for any strong/severe risk (as shown above).

 Be that as it may, model guidance of 'simulated radar' is not really showing any severe storms - but despite that - strong winds at the ground could occur if a stronger updraft does get going. At this time, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has almost all of the state under a 'Marginal Risk' of severe weather into this evening.

Otherwise, the COLD FRONT PROPER is anticipated (per models) to stretch (as shown ABOVE) across Central Florida from near Port Canaveral to Sarasota around 10PM this evening. Several models agree in this timed positioning of the boundary give or take two hours either side of 10PM. 

It might too be noted that light to moderate rain might occur AFTER the front has passed which means a COLD WINDY RAIN with temperatures in the lower-mid 50FS for a few hours AFTER the cold front passes.

Granted, by that time hopefully all will be  well settled in 'for a long winter's nap' - as it will be around midnight to the wee hours not fit for a mouse that the colder rain will or might occur during.

I've included the earlier 'Forecast Discussion' from the National Weather Service (NWS) from Melbourne (MLB) that highlights much of the same mentioned herein .  

It might too be noted that by Christmas Morning at sunrise temperatures might continue to fall or level off for much of the morning hours due to continued "Cold Air Advection' into the state from the northwest helped along with winds gusting in the 18-28mph range for a while. 

It is expected that most of Central Florida will not get much out of either the upper 40Fs or lower 50Fs on Christmas Day. This might well be the coldest Christmas we've experienced since 1995 (though that one was much colder, well into and below freezing for several hours).

By Christmas Evening winds will be backing off under clearing skies, but temperatures will also fall once again. Saturday morning will be colder than Christmas Morning, with low-mid 30F readings possible all the way around to the south side of Lake Okeechobee (in the interior regions).

Across Central Florida we'll mostly see 'mid to upper 30Fs' possibly even right at the coast with Freezings possible near/along the Route 27 corridor - though expect it might be closer to 40F along the outer most barrier islands. 

Either way, Saturday is going to be the colder of the two mornings, with Sunday morning not far behind. Warming trend, though at first slowly, commences Sunday afternoon and runs through until New Year's Eve.

The next 'bigger front' is on tap as of now to enter Florida on 'New Year's Eve'. There was one year I recall we had a 'Severe Thunderstorm Watch' issued on Christmas Eve followed later by a 'Tornado Watch' on New Year's Eve - that was at least 20 years ago, though I remember it well. The timing is about right between systems (one week) this time of year for such. At time, not anticipating we will see a  'severe thunderstorm watch' though with this system. The next cold front around New Year's Time Frame is at this point not forecast to be as 'potent' in terms of cold air.

Good Chance of Rain / Storm Christmas Eve - Cold Christmas Day & Day After

 Warming trend commences later today into the overnight (especially notable right along the Eastern most barrier islands by Wednesday morning) as high pressure north of the state drifts eastward resulting in northeast wind (though light) later today and all through the night. There is a chance, however, that the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure will not over-come the diurnal cooling effects overnight tonight, thus allowing a 'land breeze' to 'win the day' at the coast instead. Overall, inland areas will still be quite cool Wednesday morning, but the outer most barrier islands do have a chance that at some point after 3-4AM they will actually warm to the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs rather than be in the lower 50Fs. Otherwise, no rain.

The warming trend continues through the 23rd (Wednesday) and into the 24th (*Christmas Eve) as wind becomes southwesterly and increases. We could see mid-upper 70Fs on Christmas Eve Day  -- it might even be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while. 

On the other hand, a line of potentially strong storms will be entering the Panhandle Region by early-mid morning and be progressing eastward ahead of a potent Cold Front. There is a risk that some storm activity might go up well ahead of the actual line too, specifically across South Central toward South Florida (from a line near Cape Canaveral to Sarasota and south) at any time after 3 or 4pm Christmas Eve. Though that is an outlier risk, the better chance of rain now appears to be at some point between 6:30pm - 9pm in the evening.

There is a chance still that some activity could be strong/severe but the official outlets are not calling for that to be the case -regardless, we will have strong shear overhead - so at least it could get 'very windy' when the rains come in , whenever that will be.

CHRISTMAS DAY - Day After: The cold front itself is expected to be situated very close to Central Brevard County along a Northeast to Southwest Line some time around 8 or 9PM and be plowing southeastward through the state with solid cold air advection in its wake. Temperatures falling through the evening and into the morning hours accompanied by wind  anywhere from 15mph -25mph with higher gusts.

Very cool and blustery ALL DAY Christmas Day - the NAM model suggests that Central Florida won't even reach 50F degrees this day, but suspect overkill. In any case, highs may only be in the lower 50S to upper 40Fs across much of Central/North Central Florida (warmer south). Then, as darkness comes Christmas Evening, the wind should start to die off and temperatures will really go down.

I've seen forecasts (such as from the Canadian model) showing upper 20Fs for interior portions of Central Florida on the morning of the 26th, but that is an outlier. Most guidance suggests mid-upper 30Fs just about everywhere and anywhere. However we look at it, it's going to be a chilly morning on the 26th and the 27th (not so much along the coast on the 27th).  

DECEMBER 28: There will be a gradual warm up toward 'normal' temperatures beginning Sunday afternoon but it might be brief, as it looks like a re-enforcing front is going to be coming through (dry) only to keep the temperatures to below normal (though not as cold as what will be experienced on the 25th through the morning of the 27th).

BEYOND: No big 'really cold' spells are showing up as of yet -- just for fun I looked at a climatological forecast series and it showed that February might be above to well above 'normal' in regard to temperatures . Who knows, maybe these up coming days will be the 'coldest' we'll see all winter.  

Cold For Christmas - Rain/Storms Today and Christmas Eve

 

Will leave this weekend post brief but to make out a few points in continuity from the previous post.

As of 12 noon Sunday, there is a rotating storm in the western Gulf west of Tampa Bay, which 'might' be producing a water spout or severe CAT wind. Will it make it ashore? Hard to know.

Regardless, the 4KM NAM and latest HRRR runs imply that some activity could hold together or at least get a bit organized as the approaching pre-frontal trough and cold front come across North to South Central Florida later today into tonight and through the post-midnight hours.

As shown in the graphic above, there could be some 'heavy' activity as far east as the East Coast after dark tonight. The HRRR even implies two separate periods of potentially enhanced activity across Eastern Parts , one around 8-10pm and another around 2-4AM Monday morning. The 4KM NAM not so much so though. Since surface based instability will be weak to nearly non-existent at either time, chances are if there is any 'rotating going on' in storm structures it won't be realized at the ground by anything other than some rain and maybe a rumble of thunder, but it would behoove us not to at least mention it as after all, this is Florida in the 'winter' time frame and well, 'stuff happens'. 

Point is for later today and tonight : Heads up, it could  'wind and rain' (or just rain) and be generally stormy (briefly) but then again don't be surprised if you see little to no rain at all.

MONDAY: Skies will clear out during first half of day across all of North and Central Florida on this Day- December 21, other than perhaps the chance we'll see a good batch of Jet Stream Cirrus clouds overhead during the day which would stifle any full on sunshine(insolation) ..otherwise, highs still up into the 60Fs and maybe a low 70F here or there. Not cold behind this front, lows generally in the 50Fs to mid-upper 40Fs across isolated inland areas.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Uneventful as wind swings from northwesterly eventually around to a light NE-E and eventually southeast direction by Thursday. Temperatures moderating to around normal and no rain foreseen.

THURSDAY: Here we are again with Christmas Eve and the big question of will there be severe weather and if so , when.

 It STILL looks like this frontal system will be a POTENT ONE with strong shear aloft both from Speed and Directional Shear. I'd gander we'll be hearing about this one coming up on the news stations once the week gets going, stay tuned (!). 

 All in all, the GFS has 'timing for rain chances' to set up sometime as early for Eastern Half of Central Florida as just after 1pm and anywhere up through 8pm - which could conflict with Evening Christmas Eve Services (too). But again, timing is still in question ;that there could be strong storms is not in question.

CHRISTMAS DAY: The jury seems to have convened and met with a verdict - COLD and WINDY on Christmas Day; in fact, this day into the next could be the coldest '36-48 hour Period' of cold temperatures we've seen yet with highs barely getting out of the lower 50Fs most areas. 

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: With wind letting up by this day, it appears to be the colder but less windy. The GFS implies mid-upper 30Fs along and west of US1 or I95, but again, this  is still several days out and will change frequently up until mid week next week at least; however, at this point the GFS has not let up on the Signal of Cold temperatures and word has it that the Euro model agrees.

A glance at the CANADIAN model shows that rain/storms might not move in until after 8PM Christmas Eve night, but does show cold air as well, even mid-upper 30Fs near the beaches on Saturday morning the 26h, the Day after Christmas. It also shows high temperatures on Christmas Day perhaps not even reaching 50F  from Brevard/Osceola counties northward. Brr...(with wind).

IN Summary - best chance of Rain and Storms is later today and tonight  (overnight)...and again on Christmas Eve Day somewhere after 1pm to as late as 8pm - 3AM Christmas Morning. 

The other big story is much Colder Temperatures Christmas Day and the Day afterward.

Last Fling: Watching the time frame around New Year's Eve for 'heavy weather' as well.

WARMING Tonight - 'Potential Severe' Sunday Night & Christmas Eve; ?

After a very cool start to the day with a wind chill effect, the wind this afternoon will begin to shift more northerly to eventually NNE-NE or even ENE by tomorrow morning. 

The net effect of the change in wind direction will be most realized along the Florida East Coast , especially from the Cape and south. Low level patchy stratocumulus clouds will advect in along the coast overhead and a modified air mass from cool wind blowing across warmer ocean waters will begin to advect (move) on shore, especially from The Cape and South late this afternoon into early evening.

 

This will continue to be true throughout the evening with continued patches of clouds and modifying (warming) air. It is possible that the 'High Temperature" for the day will end up occurring shortly before midnight for the Barrier Islands of Brevard / Indian River Counties, possibly parts of far Eastern Volusia County as well. Thus, by morning these areas could be seeing 'morning lows' in the low 60Fs when 'afternoon highs' were in the mid - upper 50Fs.

SATURDAY: Continued veering of winds to easterly will affect most of the peninsula after sunrise Saturday morning - warmer all areas with highs generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, some lower 70Fs possible, especially for South Central/South Florida. Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with maybe even a period of light rain patches along the east coast, especially late in the day to overnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning (but brief and very isolated if so).

SUNDAY: A complicated situation is showing to evolve over the northern Gulf south of The Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night / early Monday. 

The NAM model is really hitting hard that primarily wind fields at all levels will become increasingly accommodating for overnight severe weather with bulk and directional shear being the impetus. 

Let it be known that at this time THERE IS NO WORD out for even 'potentially severe weather' from official sources; however, given the NAM's consistency in the past two runs (and increasingly so) in regard to the shearing winds over night time , and the GFS starting to join ranks, it might be advised to give at least a 'heads up' being that a strong tornado recently hit along the West Coast on a day when there was not even a tornado watch.

MONDAY: The GFS/NAM regardless both point to the next rain chances associated with a system to be late Sunday/early Monday - the frontal boundary to pass through is not forecast to be followed by a blast of cold air but rather keep temperatures at to maybe just a tad below 'normal' for this time of year. 

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look quite pleasant with lighter wind and cool but not cold mornings; the immediate east coast could see lows in the low-mid 60Fs with a light onshore wind component even ushering in lower to mid 60Fs  at sunrise with highs in the 70Fs. Cooler mornings away from the coast (west of US1).

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) This period of time being a week away is still a BIG question mark, but be it as it may and given that this is a Busy Afternoon & Evening for many people for multiple reasons - will advise that don't EXPECT (or plan) that it will be an assuredly dry period of time. 

The GFS in the past THREE runs is giving a signal of rain, possibly thunderstorms occurring across the Big Bend into at least North Central and parts of Central Florida from late morning into the mid-evening hours. 

The latest GFS implies in my mind that without a doubt there will be Severe Weather (tornadoes possible) Central Florida Christmas Eve from 2pm -10pm time frame based only on the last model run (to note). Granted , it is WAY too soon to be talking 'tornadoes' at this stage - and the forecast will very likely change multiple times between now and then. For now, at least a heads up for a pretty good rain chance (for starters) for planning purposes if need be. More to follow in later posts -- and/or keep eyes and ears attuned to future OFFICIAL FOECASTS especially.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Given the above, will go out on the next limb - that being as of the last two GFS runs Christmas Day is showing up to be a cold day, "perhaps" the coldest day yet we'll have seen this season. The latest run is showing it to be , but all things aside that could easily change even by tomorrow morning's model run. 

All in all, the overall general scenario is that an active weather pattern is going to begin to take shape OVERNIGHT TONIGHT first with a Coastal Warm up (!) but then what follows in the coming week with all of its 'potentials' and variables in forms of weather will make things 'interesting'.

Florida Weather Page

Florida Weather Page

Clearing Most Everywhere on the Way! But More Active Weather is Not Far Away

 TODAY: Clearing line near SR 528 and west is slowly eroding and dropping southward behind the weak cold front boundary that entered Central Brevard - Orange County right at sunrise, which today was at 7AM .  Sunset this evening is at 5:27PM.

Only sparse traces of rain was occurring with the boundary as it entered the area earlier this morning.

Temperatures will be mild this afternoon along and north of the boundary, but warmer and bit muggier south of it. Otherwise...

TONIGHT: Cooler all areas especially along and north of I4. Tonight into Sunday looks like we'll be running close to "normal' for this time of year..50Fs and low-mid 70Fs. Clouds should clear out well, but only concern (if you could call it that) is how cool it will be along the immediate Barrier Islands, especially the eastern most beaches where a slight onshore component of northerly flow might end up busting a temperature forecast by being warmer --it might cool earlier then warm up some to lower 60Fs near sunrise from the Cape and south along the A1A strip. 

Too hard to know for certain. 

Regardless, the wind will be swinging around to NE to ENE after daybreak Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how soon mid-high level cloud cover begins to move in.

SUNDAY: Day should start mainly clear and cool (as noted above) with clouds increasing, thickening late from near noon time and on. Just exactly 'HOW CLOUDY" it will get is debatable. 

Perhaps most of the clouds will even hold off until after dark but suspect we'll be seeing a mid-late afternoon mid-upper level ceiling develop. No rain foreseen Sunday for any of Central of South Florida except perhaps after 10PM Sunday evening.

SUNDAY OVERNIGHT-MONDAY: Best rain chances to begin after MIDNIGHT and run on through early-mid morning. 

The biggest change since the previous post is:

RAINS arriving a good 6 hours later than previously thought

RAINs thus remaining a good 6 hours later than previously though; and

BAND of LARGEST/HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS 

has shifted south on both the GFS/NAM forecasts

MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: No change in forecast from this point on. Fains eventually end everywhere by late morning through mid afternoon Monday ..clearing..then Tuesday will be VERY cool and unlikely we'll see 60F over Central/North Central or if so , barely. Lows well inland running the 40Fs spectrum with the Barrier Islands closer to low 50Fs and maybe some upper 40Fs for Tuesday and Wednesday morning

WEDNESDAY: Cool to cold this morning, it might end up being much colder inland this morning than models are showing as we should have clear skies and nearly ZERO wind over the state by then. Otherwise, the beachside is looking at upper 40Fs/Lower 50Fs mainly with light winds. Should be able to breach into the 60Fs everywhere this day.

THURSDAY: Similar to Wednesday only a Bit warmer all around. HIghs could reach near 70F this day.

Potential "Rain Event" Coming Sunday Night - Much Cooler Next Week

 

TODAY: Continued cloudy into Tonight, overnight and early Saturday. A 'cool front' will be slicing south and across the state late today into tonight and reach Central Florida proper very close to the 6-7AM time frame and continue southward. 

Most (if any) rainfall associated with the boundary will occur north of I-4, as such most areas will see little to no rainfall with the front, or if so only for a brief period. 

Temperatures across North and North Central will be much cooler Saturday afternoon and be a bit cooler Central whereas Far South Central / South Florida will not feel the effects of the boundary nearly as much.

SUNDAY: MEANWHILE, an upper level disturbance in the Mean Upper Level flow will be approaching the state and instigate the generation of a poorly organized low-mid level low pressure area aloft which will be enough to produce LIFT in the atmosphere as it approaches the latitude of South Central Florida (as it looks now). 

This could cause the old surface front to lift back north somewhat, but the real 'weather' associated with this system will not be 'surface based' - but rather mid-level. 

Regardless, guidance (both the NAM and GFS) are showing a 'swatch' of heavier rainfall or at least larger rainfall totals across ALL of South Central Florida from mostly south of a line running from near Brooksville toward Mims/Titusville area (on the north) and from near Sarasota to near Vero Beach/Fort Pierce (to the south). 

This looks like it would be a 'good moderate but steady rainfall' type of situation. The TIMING of the most concentrated rainfall as of the latest guidance is mainly from around 7-8pm Sunday night to near sunrise to just after sunrise Monday. 

Hence, most of it will be overnight (under the assumption guidance doesn't change). Rainfall totals are showing to be in the 1.00 - 1 3/4" range but there could be much higher totals in some locations, much lower in others. Either way, LATE Sunday (as the rainfall begins) through to at least mid-Morning Monday does not look very pleasant.

Current Satellite Image for FRIDAY afternoon over Florida

BEYOND: Monday will eventually see clearing once this potential rain event situation moves out - especially LATE in the day as colder drier air filters south. Once again, like this week, TUESDAY will be a very cool and breezy day with highs not likely reaching 60F across Central/North Florida - then Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as winds die down we will see again a cold morning though it does not look like it will be quite as cold as our previous bout was. 

MUCH COOLER Tuesday - Friday Morning: The stretch of cold weather continues all the way through Friday morning - again, highs Wednesday might not reach 60F either - we will be having NW winds but they will die down for us on Wednesday and Thursday - as high pressure should be getting east of Florida overnight Thursday night   we might see a warm up ESPECIALLY along the East Coast over night Thursday into Friday along the immediate east coast - then from there on we see a rapid warm up to much warmer for NEXT weekend.

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: Given the current upper level pattern and based on persistence it appears we might be in for another very complex system to set up along the Northern to Central Gulf coming mid December. There is a variety of solutions appearing from potentially stormy to potentially very cold to even just a prolonged Warming Trend. In general, mid-December is going to give us another SURPRISE weather situation necessitating that all forms of outer wear be at hand.