"Let The Wet!" Begin - Like Clockwork Strong Storms Today

 

TODAY: Two days left before Climatological Summer begins, and looks like Peninsular Florida is going to waste no time in 2021 to "Let the Wet' Games Begin in earnest. As mentioned in the previous post the other day, SUNDAY (today) would be the 'main show day' with some storms, 'possibly strong' to occur. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Central/South Florida (mainly interior areas) under a 'marginal risk' of severe category storms - that being, some storms could produce hail of 1" and/or wind gusts equal to or in excess of 58 mph. 

The 'wind threat' is by far the greatest risk today and as for 'Central Florida" the areas where those storms are mostly likely to occur appears will be under low-to-no populated areas of eastern Osceola/Orange/Okeechobee Counties well west of I 95 but that is not to discount any other probabilities especially in Seminole County and or part of interior St. Lucie/Martin Counties.

The main cause will be plenty of lower level moisture, very cold air aloft, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates primarily over Central Portions, meaning a more rapid decrease of temperature with height in the 'mid-levels' of the atmosphere which leads to quicker upward motions (vertical velocities) - those combined with upward forcing during the time of the sea breeze collisions after a full day of heating and destabilized air that is moist and we'll be able to get some big 'lightning' going (too). 

Not all will see rain today however. In fact, some if not most will remain entirely DRY, but we will see increased cloud cover all along the Florida East Coast by late today into the evening if even storm debris cloudiness drifts off to the east. The Storm Steering today is from west to east but it is very slow and not likely able to penetrate the Sea breeze until well after dark. 

There could also be rainstorms or showers after dark near to over and offshore the east coast, especially East Central in the vicinity of the decaying frontal boundary, but this activity would be below 'strong/severe' levels.

It was mentioned previously we'd see an influx of dew point air (more humid) of 70F plus (for the most part for a good 7 days) and that still appears will be the case... but we will also be averaging Precipitable Water values (the over all atmospheric moisture content) of 1.5" or more  on a STEADY basis (compared to 1/2" or less in the winter)...as we can see here, that indeed appears will be the case for days to come (the latest GFS 'says so' at least)  .....  

MONDAY: Chance of showers/thunder persists at almost any hour over night tonight into early morning Monday up through mid-morning near the old frontal boundary (Brevard County beaches area), but after that things clear up and flow becomes more east to west at many levels of the atmosphere. That means the east coast might remain dry after mid-morning through the rest of the day (but not interior and west side).

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Easterly flow prevails; however, it appears the old boundary might begin to manifest/meld just offshore the east coast along the west edge of the GULF STREAM as an inverted coastal trough.

 If so, that would aid to act as an agent for low level convergence and hence rain and/or thunderstorms to form just off shore if not on or near shore over night into the early morning hours, mainly from the Cape and South. 

We'll have to wait to see on this one, but it looks to be in the cards for now. Otherwise, afternoon storms that can form will be mainly west of I95 and more toward the Florida West Coast.

FRIDAY- BEYOND: Depth of the wind fields becomes much more south to north and looks completely 'SUMMER" ish in all ways- with ample moisture , instability and sea breezes at work. It's too far out in time for now what nature these  storms will take, but some might well be strong as well as would be characteristic of 'JUNE' thunderstorms.

TROPICS: It's worth at least pointing out that the GFS has been trying to bring Deep Tropical Moisture and Lower Pressures toward Florida come the June 8 - June 13 time frame. The Model Run last night showed a VERY active rain/storm pattern coming up (the newer run isn't completed yet). Regardless, earlier runs were also showing 'something' to go on around that time frame so it is worth watching for.

MEANWHILE: The gist for today is, 'some strong storms' today mostly West of I95 after 5pm. Cloud cover and rain and weaker storms might make it back to the coast, most likely after dark (unless one can go up along the East Coast Sea breeze earlier in the day).

"It's Coming!" - True Summer to Arrive "On Schedule"

 

The near 'seemingly drought like' conditions much of the state is in right now is nothing really unusual, as every year there is the 'dry before the rains comes' state of affairs. This year it is most pronounced, though large spread rainfalls that occurred in April have thankfully put the kibosh (to some degree) on the potential that would otherwise be for an outbreak of more widespread brush fires.

For this post, only to highlight that continued dry and warmer than usual (mainly inland) will prevail into Saturday, and with the lower dew points that are experienced in the summer this  'heat' is comparatively a 'dry heat' and does not have that 'feels like much more' to it. 

Heat indices are far from 'soaring' in other words, and this is all due to the lower dew point temperatures. All that is to change  more or less, come Sunday into Monday or there so .

Who's watching the Clock anyway? After all, the first day of 'Official Summer' at least 'Meteorologically' is June 1 (the astronomical start is when the Sun passes over the Tropic of Cancer around June 21), but from a  Meteorological perspective in the northern hemisphere, Summer begins on JUNE 1.

Now, from a Florida perspective (at least the bloggers one) it begins when we have at least 7 continuous days of dew point temperatures at or above 70F which is what leads to the next summer norm - the 'wet season' / or 'summer' begins.

 We have had days in some instances where the sea breezes met, but due to lower dew points and/or length of day time heating the sea breeze collisions would amount to nothing more than a cloud deck for the most part. Now we have longer days and the necessary greater moisture in the lower levels set to move in from the tropics to produce more clouds (cumulus) and thunderstorms during sea and lake breeze mergers (hence, the 'wet season').

The moisture is first forecast to move in more closely associated to a decaying frontal boundary from the north  so that by late Saturday afternoon we might see increased cloud cover during the mid to late day, but it is Sunday as the front gets across Central that we could see a storm or two (possibly strong) 'somewhere over Central Florida'.  

The True Higher Dew points from that day onward though will be ushered northward as well from the south ahead and along this boundary, and be initially prominent along the Florida East Coast MONDAY, MAY 31 morning (after the pretty good chance of rain/storms on Sunday). Inland dewpoints might not quite hit and sustain that magic 70F  -- but it won't be long as we move into the first two weeks of June 2021.

In Fact, the Long Range GFS model shows once the dew point reaches 70F on that Monday morning, it does not once go below that reading from that point onward. Granted, it 's only a forecast model but the trend is on for 'The Wet Season"  (and the True Florida-like Summer weather) to be moving in.

In regard to Tropical Weather, this also means an increasing risk of Tropical Storm development  ...of which any threat at this time of year would be most generally on the "Gulf Side" rather than the Atlantic, at least as far as a 'direct and immediate threat' to a  Florida Coast line as far as storm surge is concerned.

Risk of A Severe Storm by Early - Mid Afternoon

 

Strong Storm Stretches Offshore the Cape
 as viewed from Cape Canaveral (5/5/21)

RECAP: As was expected, there was a marginal risk of a 'severe' category storm yesterday -- there was one such observable storm over the Northern Cape Region of Playalinda Beach on an 'observation tower', albeit those winds were a bit above ground. Regardless - it qualified. Otherwise, no qualifiable severe conditions were observed elsewhere or at least none were reported by anyone. 

TODAY: Today looks to have a bit more going for it to support 'severe CAT' weather over and above yesterday - at least as of mid-morning. 

One big difference today from yesterday  - the mid-upper level temperatures per the RAP short term model are to lower significantly as we enter into early afternoon. 

As such, lower to mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy (along with increasing instability) coupling that with where the East Coast Sea Breeze sets up (which will be VERY close to the coast, possibly no further inland than US1) to meet up with the West Coast Sea breeze   -  -- and 'assuming' we get amply prolonged insolation (near unrestricted heating)...the stage could be set for a SUDDEN explosive storm or two very close to the beaches (or just off shore) after the 2-3pm time frame. 

Inhibiting factors, 'especially near to north of I-4, would be greater cloud coverage. Any larger area experiencing prolonged cloud cover might be able to be ruled out for a strong storm today (or any storm for that matter).

Regardless, though there could be a strong storm across the North Half of Volusia, expecting the greater risk (because the potential looks better) to be further south  -- the region I'm seeing as of this hour for having the most potential for a severe category storm (possibly even due to Hail Size) would be from near Sanford - Titusville southward to South Melbourne Beach -- basically anywhere in Brevard (nearly) along and east of US1 and as far inland as Sanford or so. 

Much , however, assumes we even get an east coast sea breeze !

 Otherwise, there is still a risk of strong to severe either way -- due to the colder air aloft coming in nearly perfectly in sync with the peak heating hours of the day. 

The factor that would increase the severe potential even more would be if the west coast sea breeze were to surprisingly just 'take off to the east' by early afternoon and meet the east coast one in perfect timing with the upper level features. 

This does seem to be yet possibly (however (!)) ...so any delay in storm onset (especially south of I4)toward the 4-5PM time frame might mean a greater chance of a quick but severe category storm.

BEYOND: The front will pass down the state tonight and into Central Florida in the pre-dawn hours. It is expected to be entering South Central Florida shortly after sunrise - as such, rain chances go to zero by early or mid morning across that area.  Still warm but much drier, with highs mostly in the mid-upper 80Fs .

SATURDAY: Much cooler Friday night to Saturday morning. This might be our last shot at most of the areas (especially east of I95) of getting below 70F this season - or close to the last chance.

Beaches south of The Cape might still be able to tweak out a 70F reading Saturday morning as winds might just start to gain an on-shore component and now the ocean temperature is up to 80F  ... ! It's really risen the past two week.

MOTHER'S DAY: This day looks right around 'normal' across the boards temperature and rain chances wise. The better chance of any showers at all this day will be across South Florida but the warming trend will be beginning for a much warmer, and a bit wetter week ahead.

LONG RANGE: We might be in for a bit more of an active period coming mid-late week (next week) for several days. The signals are there in the GFS that that will be the case, at least for shower/thunderstorm activity - possibly over-night off shore -- all in all - it's NOT summer yet moisture wise. The Deep Moisture we see from the Tropics is in no way shown to be arriving just yet.

Potential for Strong Storms Today & Tomorrow (East Central)

 

Very Early Morning Rainstorm Moving in on May 5, 2017

TODAY:  As of 'very early' this morning, prior to sunrise, satellite interpretation indicates a large 'outflow boundary' emanating across North Florida pressing southward as a result of heavier rainfall and storm activity that had occurred over parts of Southern Alabama and Georgia yesterday/last night. (see image below)

This boundary will likely become indistinguishable by mid morning but nonetheless the 'energies' involved with it could well continue unrealized until late today / early this evening.

Temperatures aloft are expected to cool a few degrees very late this afternoon after a full day of insolation, resulting in ample instability (Convective Available Potential Energy) with some bulk shear (wind shear aloft) involved mainly from a Melbourne to Tampa line northward.

 Expect that this boundary will be will south of I-4 by late today as (meanwhile) the West Coast Sea breeze - which will be the dominant sea breeze today as steering for storms is from west to east (generally speaking)- meets up to the East Coast Sea Breeze. The West Coast/East Coast sea breeze collision as such seems most likely to occur east of  the spine of the state, effectually (for storms) along a line from near Sanford southward toward Yeehaw Junction (southern Osceola County).

All said and done, as of early this morning at least, it appears we could see a strong storm or two mainly across 'anywhere Brevard County toward Indian River County'. More 'isolated' activity could also occur mainly as a result of outflows from said 'possible storms' even later and further south toward Ft Pierce along a by then, 'retired Lake Okeechobee Breeze'.

The 'most likely time for storms to form and make impacts in regard to this particularly cited activity' is from around 6pm - 9pm across far Southeast Volusia County, western Brevard County toward the immediate coast (eventually), later then for perhaps far NE Okeechobee County toward interior Indian River to St Lucie Counties . Otherwise, another warm day in store.

THURSDAY: An actual frontal boundary will be working south of 1-10 ..into North Central Florida by late in the day. There is a RISK (marginal) of Severe Category storms (mainly due to wind) in much the same areas as noted in the graphic shown above in this blog post once again . Will not bother going into details for Thursday in this post as much will be revealed after today is through in regard to where any lingering boundaries after today's storms might eventually be the prime focus of storm activity tomorrow.

Again, for today it appears the main player for today is the outflow boundary from the north combined with the merger of the West and East coast Sea breezes which will provide low level lift along with a full day of insolation and mounting instability coupled with lowering upper level temperatures (which might be key). Of course, there is the chance all we'll see is 'generic' showers and some lightning, but given consistency now in several model runs of varying model guidance will go with the potentially strong to near severe early this evening for far eastern sections of East Central Florida.

Risk of a Strong/Marginally Severe Storm Late Today (East Central)

 

Late May Storm -2020 
 There are Signs / Signals today
Indicating that there is the potential
for a 'near severe storm' along and
east of I-95 Today

TODAY: First post in quite a while - as weather officially is getting into 'the warm' with no return to cold foreseen anywhere on the horizon. Ocean temperatures off East Central are getting closer to 80F now helping to make sea breeze - lake breeze boundaries potentially more effective than when the ocean is colder. That, and for today we have plenty of heating , just enough moisture (barely)..a  good west coast dominate sea breeze to work east across the state, lack of strong 'suppression from aloft' plus cold air aloft and some wind shear combined all could help make a situation for 'pre-summer thunderstorm like' activity with the bonus of winds and cold dry air aloft to add some punch to the crunch.

The best chance of a strong storm today, IF one can form, appears would be near to just east of I-95 from Volusia County southward down toward inland Palm Beach County and around the Big Lake (Okeechobee).

Noting that late in the day though wind across much of the state will be from the Southwest the East coast sea breeze running 'up the coast' form the SE-SSE combined with the winds of Lake Okeechobee could set up for two to even a three way boundary collision (s) later further north toward Brevard County. Watch out especially if near the rivers (esp. the Banana River) the late afternoon wind in that area seems unusually gusty (!). All eyes to the W - SW after 5pm if you are on the Barrier Islands.

Morning sounds are showing an INVERTED - "V" profile with drier air closer to the ground, a layer of very moist air, then colder and drier air above that. The D-CAPE values (Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy) as such then is more than sufficient by all indications combined with the cold air aloft to result in wind gusts in the 50-60mph (at least) , hence adding in that risk (and/or for small hail as well).

The big question though is IF a storm can get really started in the environment that is forecast to set up later today. At this time, things are not quite sufficient, and much can change as we get past the noon- 1PM time frame. It may be at that time (even) that it will become apparent that any storm risk at all will have vanished -- but then again, it might be come apparent that the risk is even greater yet still (!).

End of story is, the best chance for strong storm at this point seems to be near interior Indian River County and again from around Port St  John toward Titusville/Mims corridor southward into North/Central Brevard County after 5:30PM or so.

 TOMORROW-THURSDAY: Again, more chances for storms in the afternoon, especially on WEDNESDAY. Temperatures aloft might warm a little bit tomorrow so not so sure about strong activity (or even much at all except more inland) but that day is not yet here so will be watching.

So far, the GFS model has been hitting pretty hard on WEDNESDAY for much better coverage and possibly some stronger storms then as well.