Cold For A Week And... Will The Atlas Launch?

(Image: Satellite Imagery at 11am shows approaching conditions from the west)

In a nutshell, enjoy today...while it lasts. Some nice little breaks in the clouds right now (as I type at 12 pm) over east Central Florida from Titusville and points south...but that won't last for long. A strong cold front is approaching the state today...which will put an end to any hopes of spring being right around the corner for quite some time.

TODAY: High temperature could reach the mid-70s from a Melbourne on the east coast to inland of Naples on the west coast and points south line...low 70s along the east side of the state south of Titusville but cooler the further west and north one goes ...It seems a weak warm frontal type boundary passed overhead and will remain just to the north from Volusia on the east coast to just south of Crystal River on the west coast for the remainder of the day.

Accompanying that boundary was some Virga (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) from Canaveral over toward Orlando which was evident on Tampa's radar scope...but that has since moved on. The wind is gusting out of the south to over 20mph across much of the southern part of the state..and those winds will be realized more locally by 2pm ahead of the approaching COLD front. And I do mean COLD in every way. As we work into the mid afternoon a rain shield currently approaching the west coast near Tampa (and already over land north of there) will be moving in. First hitting the Tampa area, then Orlando...then eventually all of Brevard (north part first then working south with time) by 3-5pm. At first the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground..but it should become felt by 5-6pm. Totally overcast conditions will precede the rainshowers...as will gradually increasing winds out of the SSW-SW by late afternoon. If one has stuff to do outside..."Get'r Done" before sunset if along the east coast and north of Melbourne. Areas further south of a Sarasota to Brevard/Indian River County line could hold off on rain until after sunset. Lucky dogs.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW: The warmest of temperatures for Wednesday will occur during its first hour...i.e. midnight -1am...as was mentioned yesterday. Then it's Bombs Away for the mercury on the thermometer. The cold front will have cleared the entire state by sunrise. Continued cloudy until right after FROPA (frontal passage) as strong NW winds harbor in the cold/much drier air. Cold wind chills will definitely be a factor ALL DAY tomorrow with a high probably we will not be getting out of the low 50s. I wonder if the Atlas will be able to launch from Pad 41 in the morning?! I'm giving it a "no go" due to winds.

THURSDAY: Very cold all day. Won't be surprised to hear freeze advisories being issued as far south as Okeechobee in the interior portions of the state and especially from Orlando north for all areas. Extreme East Central Florida should escape a freeze though..with a low near 40 degrees. But west of the Banana River toward Cocoa expect a rapid drop off into the low-mid 30s by 3am....with continued breezy conditions. Actually, the wind might be the saving grace from getting to freezing from Orlando-South. If one has plants to protect..I'd start today in whatever procedure you probably have already established. We're getting good at that this year, unfortunately.

FRIDAY: Another cold start to the day...with only a minor rebound in temperatures. Still don't think we'll see 60s though...even though another system will be winding up in the Gulf and approaching the area. This low has been shown for two days now (by the GFS model) to track across the Southern part of the state..and the latest run depicts this even more so..even further south in fact. Pretty darned unusual.

Expecting a cold rain to be induced by weak isentropic lift ahead of the low across much of Central Florida by late afternoon with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Because dry air will already be in place..the rain may actually evaporate before reaching the ground...but feel that it eventually will. Timing on this possibility will most assuredly need to be refined as the time draws nigh. I was actually wondering if we'll be hearing reports of sleet at sometime during the late Friday/Saturday "event"...but so far I think we'll be okay on that one.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: Regardless of where the low pressure crosses the state and just exactly when..it looks like pretty much a guarantee that with its passage we will again be greeted by a reinforcing cold blast straight from our good neighbors in Canada to last until at least Monday.

I blame it all on the Canadians. Apparently they are very efficient packers...because they've remembered to bring the weather with them. Where's a Hawaiian when you need one?!

More Cool To Cold Days Ahead

(Image: The palm and vine, back when they were green. After this winter it's all brown now)

Cold start for most everywhere this morning across Central Florida except the extreme east central portion (along/east of A1A). For instance, while Melbourne was 40 degrees Canaveral and Patrick AFB were 51. All areas as far south as Miami were colder than the immediate vicinity. But shortly after sunrise everyone caught up and have since equaled out with temps in the upper 50s for the most part.

TODAY: Far from stellar...but for a winter day one can't complain. Lots of high clouds today continue streaming overhead as of 1pm..right at max heating time. Therefore, the high temperature today will struggle to make it out of the lower 60s. There is a weak surface 'bubble' low of the coast which will have just enough influence to keep the winds backed to the NNE until after sunset, but they will remain very light. Circulation around this low will continue to filter in the cool air well after sunset.

TONIGHT: Continued light NNE-NE wind all night, but not as cold. Inland will be 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning was. The immediate coast will be warmer too, but not quite as significantly so.

TOMORROW: After a warmer start to the morning...the afternoon will be pleasant as well. But not as nice as one could hope. Thinking now is that it will be cooler than previously thought with a high in the low 70s under filtered sunlight. Clouds will be on the increase by mid-light afternoon as the next system approaches but we should remain dry during the daylight areas. The west coast from Tampa north..and the panhandle are much more likely to see some rain though before sunset.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY: It's likely that the warmest time during this period will be around 2am..yup, in the middle of the night. Clouds will thicken up...and a cooling rain will make the overnight hours potentially crummy but good for sleeping. I'm seeing some possibility of thunder with the system on TV...but I don't see it. The cold front will have likely already passed by sunrise...and strong cold air advection will be in full force during the day, Wednesday. The temperature is unlikely to rise much at all (if even) during the day...and the WNW-NW winds gusting to 20-25mph will make it feel even colder than the sub-60 degrees we'll have all day. NOT FUN. Clouds should be on the wane as we work toward noon time at least. But it's going to be a true winter day. But no freezing temperatures at least.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Continue the cold streak sums it up. No appreciable warming for quite some time. Even just prior to the next front's arrival near Saturday we won''t warm up all so great. Essentially, I'm preparing for lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s...eventually the 60s by Friday. Inland areas can make those morning lows in the 30s though.

SEVERE WEATHER: At this time, it seems unlikely. We were too stable in prior fronts to generate severe weather here, and this time we look to be even more stable. Would like to at least hear a thunder rumble...but for now I would be very wary of placing any bets on that possibility. All in all...typical El Nino weather. Very cool...periodic cloudy spurts...and benign.

Did I mention, after Tuesday Night's and Saturday's System there'll be another one already formulating in the western Gulf with its eyes on us once.... again? For shame.

Very Cool The Next 24 Hours - But No Blizzards Here

(Image: Latest Satellite image depicting cloud cover around 9:30am)

We're right on track as far as temperatures goes from Friday's post, but the clouds are definitely hanging around more than expected. Latest surface data and the KSC sounding shows (1) Dew points across the area are dropping off nicely this morning...hence..even drier air today (2) Strong subsidence inversion exists just below 850mb trapping any remaining atmospheric moisture at the lowest levels (hence, the stratocumulus clouds). (3) Mid level 'trough' pushing south overhead (sort of like an elevated cold front)

LAST NIGHT: With the clouds coming in, overnight lows didn't drop off as much as they could have. However, it didn't affect the blog forecast as far as lows along the coast goes. We still got down to the upper 40s. It was the inland areas that were spared from the expected low 40s as a result of the "cloud blanket"...and they saw mostly mid-40s instead.

TODAY/TONIGHT: Still think Monday morning will be the coldest of mornings as was alluded to several days ago. Also, the train of thought continues with the notion that we won't reach 60 degrees today..or if so..for maybe an hour (or two at max). Clouds you ask? Good question! As you can see by the attached satellite image there is a healthy dose of them...they are shifting from north to south..at least that's how it looks from the satellite loop...although the winds at that level are from the west. Believe that with the ground level dew points falling that these clouds will begin to erode from the bottom up but that they will not disappear entirely..especially along the coast. The RUC is currently showing that they shouldn't even be there...at all!...The NAM picked up on them a little better..but just barely. All in all - they both 'failed" on depicting this cloudy scenario. I believe they will continue to be around all day for areas east of I-95 with some breaks during the mid-afternoon...but not looking for any full sun today. With that thinking in mind, believe that the temperature will have a hard time reaching 60s degrees. It seemed we would have a hard time doing that even when not considering there would be clouds around...so now that notion is just being reinforced.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING: Should add that these clouds might also be being enhanced by the secondary weak trough of low pressure rotating around the back of that monster storm which impacted the DelMarVa area yesterday as related to above. Believe that (1) after the trough passes overhead today and (2) the low moves yet further off to the ENE, and (3) strong high pressure builds south from near James Bay -- being enhanced along the Appalachians AND snow covered, cold land mass to the north at the surface...that this will be enough to clear us out by or shortly after sunset (hopefully sooner). The end result of all of the just stated is that tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning of all for the entire peninsula as drainage flow down the spine of the state ensues without the cloud blanket.

Sure hope the launch can go..but honestly, I'm not 100% sold on the notion that it will just yet. We'll have a much better idea though well before bed time. Once the lower clouds clear out they'll be gone for good (at least in the short term). It's just IF they can clear out. Going to go on the optimstic side though (at least more optimistic than I was last night at bed time)...and give it the 'green light'.

TOMORROW: After a cold start, tomorrow should be warmer than both Saturday and today will be. In fact, it could be 5-9 degrees warmer tomorrow with a light north wind and partly cloud skies. Far from "pleasant'...but considering we're not buried in snow or having freezing temperatures...I'd be ashamed to complain. Be that as it may...these temperatures are not 'pleasing'.

TUESDAY AND POINTS ON: Winter has definitely come to stay as a series of fast moving systems continue to generate along the southern branch El-Nino like jet stream. The result is less than stellar conditions for a prolonged period of time. Tuesday will be the best of days...with milder sunrise temperatures as the wind will have swung to an onshore component by Monday afternoon...albeit a very light one. By sunrise Tuesday the wind will be more southeasterly and eventually SSW during the course of the day...resulting in a temperature in the mid 70s. Was tempted to say upper 70s but I believe there will be too many clouds that will offset sufficient heating for a warmer day. If we're going to see any rain it will be sometime after sunset Tuesday night through about one hour within sunrise Wednesday. After that? You guessed it..colder temperatures again, but not down to freezing (literally speaking). After another two days of very cool temperatures (back to the 40s for lows) another system will be on the approach. The surface low with the next one after Tuesday/Wednesday's (i.e., on Saturday) might actually pass across South Florida. This means we would not even see a warm front preceding its passage as we have been getting all winter...thus, no great warm up before it.

As for severe weather? This is always the most fun part to try to forecast...so you might get a hint by the statement that " I don't think we'll be having much 'fun'"...but it's definitely worth watching! Just don't see any for either of the next two systems. Wind fields look pretty impressive for this next one, but as has been the case this winter..and even more so for Tuesday/Wednesday...thermodynamics will be the pits...abundant cloud cover induced by isentropic lift ahead of the system will greatly inhibit instability across Central Florida. But don't give up the ship just yet!

Menacing Mid-Atlantic Mid-Winter Menace

(Image: radar as of 12:55pm EST)

As mentioned earlier, there would likely be a blog update posted. For the most part, surprisingly, one is really not needed. So this will be brief. If you haven't heard by now, the areas around the nation's capitol is in for 1-2 FEET of snow, and the store shelves have rapidly emptied in preparations. Turn into the news or TWC...you can't miss but hearing about it.

Locally, the only feature that stands out in my mind at this time is that the surface winds across all of Central Florida are remaining backed and are not veering toward the SW just ahead of approaching line of storms. Winds just off the deck are increasing as well. Noticed a gust of 40 mph out of due south last hour at Clearwater just ahead of the line. Therefore, expect even stronger than anticipated low level helicities stronger than previously thought. If we had good (meaning very unstable) thermodynamics across the area today we'd probably be in a tornado watch right now. But such is not the case...therefore, no changes to previous thinking. Timing even remains pretty much on cue. Our main threat will be strong wind gusts if one happens to encounter a storm. Remember, just because the threat is real does not mean it will happen right where you live. One can experience very little other than some rain, whereas just a few miles away all hell could be breakig lose.

The lower cloud deck moved right on in is as expected, and such will be the case sky wise for the rest of the day. Some rain showers are popping up across Central Florida to the south which are rapidly moving off to the ENE...but it appears those will remain south of the immediate area, but S. Osceola County, S. Brevard, and Indian River Counties will probably get a sampling of this activity.

Otherwise, still expecting the worst of the weather to be approaching-- if not occurring-- between 5-7pm across most of East Central Florida. The Orlando area of course will be in 'it' 1- 1 1/2 hours sooner.

Anyone with at least a little common sense might want to tune into Channel 13 or 9...or The Weather Channel if you don't have a S.A.M.E. Alert'able' Weather Radio to keep abreast of the latest...particularly after 3pm...as things could get pretty active in these parts by late afternoon. It's worth noting though, on the brighter side, that little to no lightning activity is being detected at this time that will impact Central Florida in the very near term. Most of the lightning is heading to the West Coast south of Sarasota. This area though needs to be monitored as it might be just what kicks things into high gear as it moves just north of due east. Hence, for the more immediate area, it might be the south 1/2 of Osceola and Brevard Counties (and points further south)...that experience the meanest punch later today. But like I mentioned, if things start to look nasty the local channels will likely be covering the event live as things unfold.

Possible Thunder and Strong Storms - Blog Update Likely To Be Required

(Images show radar as of 8:40am and concurrent satellite IR imagery).

We're pretty much on track today with yesterday's discussion, with some differences which will be noted below. The main differences are the timing on the arrival of rain/storms and their intensity.

TODAY: Cloudy skies this morning with a few peaks of sun now and then will yield to a mid-low level overcast between 11am-noon time. This will limit the amount of heating we receive this afternoon, thus preempting our chances of reaching 80 degrees...but mid-upper 70s isn't bad.

The wind will be gusting at times in the 20-30mph range, mainly across open areas such as on the beach or along the rivers. But it will be a warm, energy filled wind that will lift our spirits (and kites). Other than a few very light sprinkles, we should remain rain free on the east side of the peninsula until at least 2:30pm. Folks west and north of I-4 (more precisely, the Panhandle)are already seeing the rain moving in. The Tampa area will start to get rain/storms a good 3-5 hours before the immediate east coast does. The Orlando area of course falls somewhere in between the two.

TIMING AND INTENSITY: First intensity - As noted above, the main differences from yesterday's discussion are in both timing and intensity of this system, but not by much. It's been stated for days now that some of the storm activity with this system could be on the strong side, mainly from winds. This train of thought has not changed at all. The change is that it looks more likely to occur rather than less likely. Both the NAM and GFS models support the notion of moderate to strong speed maxes to cross the central Florida Peninsula beginning the early afternoon and favorable divergence at the jet stream level (approx. 30,000 ft.) will enhance lift. BUT, thermodynamically speaking, and as was also briefly mentioned yesterday, it's not looking so great for severe weather. There is some warm air over running us just overhead (what we need is colder air aloft to add to atmospheric "lift"..and hence convection --thunderstorms.).

In fact, SPC (the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma) has placed most of peninsular Florida in a "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms, due to winds (no hail)...and even alludes to a low end chance of isolated tornadoes. All of the NWS offices are in general consensus...and in this case I'm not one to go out on the 'disagreement' limb for now.

Believe the leading edge of those lower clouds shown on the satellite depiction is caused by the over running warm air. They are steadily approaching like a rentless troop of soldiers on attack...and will be in the area by noon time. Regardless, the wind (speed and shear) can't be ignored and therefore I'm riding with what our official resources are seeing...that being that some strong storms (winds in those storms) are a real possibility...possibly in excess of 58mph in gusts with the strongest of storms (should you happen to be impacted by one).

Now Timing - here's where it gets even trickier. The GFS and NAM are a full 6 hours apart as to when the worst of weather will move in, with the GFS being the faster. The GFS has been consistently too fast all this winter with these systems...so I'm not buying fully into that. On the other hand, based on latest satellite/radar loops..the NAM looks to slow!...Gads. So if we essentially take an average between the two..what it amounts to is for points east of Orlando..be on the look out for rain/storms to start to impact the area in the 4-8pm time frame. This is a big window considering how close the system is now. Perhaps the next model runs will shed more light. At this time, they are not yet available. This post is more of a HEADS UP but don't run for cover just yet 'blogging'....just to get the information out there well ahead of time.

Overnight Saturday-Tuesday: The worst will be over by sunrise as the rain will have ended and skies clear. Nothing has changed at all for this time period from yesterday's post. The high on Saturday will likely be within 1-2 hours of sunrise. Level off, then likely start to drop by mid-late afternoon ending up in the upper 40s along the coast and low to mid 40s west of the Banana River. Cool through Monday...then gradually moderating temperatures. Too much going on now (today) for indepth elaboration which will need refinement with time anyway. Let's just get through today/tonight...and horrors upon horrors..Sunday. Hey...where'd I stock the hot chocolate?

Nice Warm Days Will Yield To Winter's Wrath--Too Soon

("In Memory Of...") June 21, 2009 when it got up to 100 degrees in Cape Canaveral. Not sure if that was a good thing...but it sure sounds nice right about now.

Low level inversion and moisture trapped beneath will generate patches of stratocumulus clouds today across all of the area with gradually warming temperatures. The wind will remain easterly all day generally 10mph or less. All in all..respectfully uneventful sums it up. In the meantime, a low pressure system will be developing in the western Gulf south of the heal of Louisana during the day. Our next weather maker...and for the mid-Atlantic states...get your snow shovels ready! Here comes Papa. Closer to Home....

TONIGHT -EARLY TOMORROW: High pressure to our north will move off the U.S. east coast over night...gradually shifting winds to the SE-SSE over night. A modestly strong pressure gradient will become established during the course of the day, Friday, as the wind becomes more southerly and increases under considerable high cloudiness streaking overhead in prelude to the approaching system. Very mild overnight low temperatures for tonight, probably well above 60 degrees along the coast.

TOMORROW: Warmest of days for a while. Could even get up to 80 degrees pretty much everywhere..if not a few degrees warmer away from the coast. Lots of high clouds though with an increasing middle layer deck through the course of the day. But pretty much no rain except for those west and north of I-4 during the daylight hours. As a result, for most of Central Florida the atmosphere will feel "alive"...warm, windy, and energetic...very unlike the 'dead' of winter.

What a great way to end the work week.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: Alas, it's not spring yet...and as such, we will be dutifully reminded. As has been advertised for several days now, this is the period we are most likely to receive rain and possibly thunder. Some how this year has almost always managed to give us the possibility of the worst of weather when it's dark...curses. There is still the possibility of some thunderstorms with this system...some of which could have strong winds...but as has been the course of events for this year instability will be greatly lacking. But good speed shear will create the possibility for some robust updrafts, so a strong storm or two with strong winds will not be discounted. All of the most active weather for East Central Florida will occur somewhere between 3am and sunrise. Might add, our warmest temperature of the day on Saturday will likely be within 1-2 hours of sunrise.

SATURDAY NOON-TUESDAY: The system will have cleared most of the state by noon and cold /dry air advection will ensue. Back to winter in other words. Expect sky conditions to greatly improve, but don't think we'll like the very cool and breezy NW winds that will accompany those clearing skies. Sunday and Monday will be cold with lows in the low-mid 40s west of the Indian River and upper 40s to near 50 east of there both mornings. We could be hard pressed to reach 60 degrees on Sunday! Good day to be inside for Big Game preparations. But given that we are almost 1 1/2 months past our shortest day of the year (December 21)...the greater sun angle under clear skies might help us break 60 on Sunday...just maybe. More assuredly on Monday, especially as the wind will start to swing around more toward the NNE.

Should add, as alluded to we are getting to the point where we are getting longer days and a higher sun angle. This can make forecasting afternoon high temperatures a little tricky during this time of the year.

BEYOND TUESDAY: As is almost always the case a few days after frontal passage, winds will swing around to a more easterly component in preparation for the next approaching system. At this time it looks more like it will merely bring a return to slightly cooler weather, and vigorous 'storm activity' does not appear to be nearly as likely...if indeed it even rains upon its arrival. That's quite some time from now...must first "survive" this cool/cold 'two day snap'. Does this mean we have to wear long pants again? GASP!!

January 2010 One of the Overall Coldest Months On Record For East Central Florida

 

 The following excerpt was solely generated by the NWS in Melbourne. Kudos to them

for making this information available. I'm posting this write up in lieu of a forecast discussion for

today. Will be back tomorrow. For now...Friday will be our warmest in a while...but cloudy.

Rain Friday night until very early Saturday. Cold Sunday and Monday.

JANUARY 2010 WILL BE WELL REMEMBERED FOR HAVING ONE OF THE LONGEST   
STRETCHES OF COLDER WEATHER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED ON  
RECORD. SEVERAL STRONG FRONTS PUSHED ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING   
REINFORCING COLD AIR...FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND A RARE WINTRY MIX  
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH AND STRONG TO   
SEVERE STORMS TOWARDS THE END.          
         
THE MONTH BEGAN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION   
WHICH USHERED IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST CENTRAL   
FLORIDA. THIS COLD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE THROUGH THE 13TH OF JANUARY   
DUE TO REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON THE   
5TH...8TH...AND 12TH. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES AT MOST SITES   
FROM THE 2ND THROUGH THE 13TH WERE AROUND 16 TO 17 DEGREES BELOW   
NORMAL. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE   
OBSERVED ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH NUMEROUS RECORD LOW   
TEMPERATURES BROKEN. EVEN SEVERAL RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE   
RECORDS WERE SHATTERED AS DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED   
AT OR BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE COLD PERIOD.   
 
TO PUT THE LENGTH OF THIS COLD SPELL IN PERSPECTIVE...DAYTONA   
BEACH...ORLANDO...MELBOURNE...AND VERO BEACH BROKE OR TIED THE   
GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAINED AT   
OR BELOW 60 DEGREES. ALSO VERO BEACH BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE   
LONGEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO   
FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING.   
 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN A ROW WHEN MAX TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR   
EQUAL TO 60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT:  
 
SITE                 DAYS (JAN 2010)      RECORD (MONTH/YEAR)  
 
DAYTONA BEACH              12                 8 (DEC/1995)     
ORLANDO                    11                 8 (DEC/1995)  
MELBOURNE                   6                 6 (JAN/1977)      
VERO BEACH                  6                 6 (JAN/1977)  
 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN A ROW WHEN MIN TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR   
EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT:  
 
SITE                 DAYS (JAN 2010)      RECORD (MONTH/YEAR)  
 
DAYTONA BEACH               5                 6 (DEC/1962)     
ORLANDO                     4                 6 (JAN/1977)   
MELBOURNE                   4                 5 (JAN/1977)      
VERO BEACH                  8                 4 (JAN/1981)  
   
MORE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNED FOR   
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND   
DURATION OF THE COLD SPELL LED TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES   
THAT WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VERO BEACH HAD ONE OF THE   
LARGER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THE MONTH OF -6.7   
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH WAS ITS 4TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.   
ORLANDO HAD ITS 5TH COLDEST AND MELBOURNE HAD ITS 4TH COLDEST   
JANUARY ON RECORD WITH DEPARTURES OF -6.5 AND -5.7 DEGREES   
FAHRENHEIT RESPECTIVELY. DAYTONA BEACH ENDED UP WITH AN AVERAGE   
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE OF -5.1 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH RANKED AS ITS   
7TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.       
 
MANY OF THE COLD FRONTS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING JANUARY 2010   
BROUGHT BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A   
COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE   
ALSO LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PREDAWN TO MID   
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE 9TH MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET WITH A FEW   
REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS   
MIXED PRECIPITATION (ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS) CAME IN FROM ACROSS THE   
AREA FROM OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO AS FAR SOUTH AS   
KISSIMMEE...PALM BAY...AND VERO BEACH. THE LAST TIME WINTER TYPE   
PRECIPITATION OCCURRED IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WAS IN 2008 WHEN SNOW   
FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES ON JANUARY   
3RD.   
 
THE STRONG FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED OVER   
THE REGION BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO NORTHERN   
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE MONTH. HOWEVER MOST OF   
THESE LINES OF PRECIPITATION BECAME MORE BROKEN AND WEAKENED AS THEY   
MOVED SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO AND KISSIMMEE METRO AREA. THIS RESULTED    
IN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OVER THE NORTH AND   
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL TOTALS FARTHER SOUTH. DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED   
5.92 INCHES DURING THE MONTH WHICH WAS ITS 4TH WETTEST JANUARY ON   
RECORD (1ST IS 7.16 INCHES SET BACK IN 1986). A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE   
STORMS OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THESE FRONTS ON THE 22ND WHERE A EF0   
TORNADO (WINDS OF 65 TO 85 MPH) FORMED AND MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY FROM VIERA TO COCOA BEACH CAUSING MINOR   
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND KNOCKING DOWN TREES.             
 
BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL   
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE   
MONTH OF JANUARY 2010:  
 
STATION        JANUARY 2010     30 YEAR   DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF  
                 RAINFALL       NORMAL    FROM NORMAL     NORMAL  
 
DAYTONA BEACH      5.92"         3.13"       2.79"         189%  
(DAB)  
ORLANDO            3.53"         2.43"       1.10"         145%  
(MCO)  
MELBOURNE          0.94"         2.48"      -1.54"          38%  
(MLB)  
VERO BEACH         0.94"         2.89"      -1.95"          33%  
(VRB)  
CLERMONT           3.11"         3.11"       0.00"         100%  
(CLRF1)  
DELAND             5.83"         3.35"       2.48"         174%  
(DELF1)  
SANFORD            3.84"         2.88"       0.96"         133%  
(SFNF1)  
TITUSVILLE         3.00"         2.79"       0.21"         108%  
(TITF1)  
FORT PIERCE        1.30"         2.70"      -1.40"          48%  
(FPCF1)  
STUART             2.50"         3.02"      -0.52"          83%  
(STRF1)        
  

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Stephen Sponsler           vortex2@brevard.net
High Speed Dirt Blog:     http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/
Sponsler Channel            http://www.youtube.com/sponsler#g/u
Flickr Photos                  http://www.flickr.com/photos/vortex2/sets/72157614918021044/
Cape Canaveral, FL \/
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Boundary O-Rama Across the State - Departs Late Day

(Images: Latest Local Analysis of Fronts/Boundaries, Radar at 9 a.m., water vapor)

Interesting morning unfolding with all sort of boundaries across Central and north Florida. The dominant feature at this time appears to be the low developing off the coast near Jacksonville.

EARLY TODAY: The warm front has essentially passed to the north, with a residual secondary boundary behind it enhancing what little instability there is within the 'warm sector'. This is far from a classic warm front/cold front scenario as dynamics for wind/instability are weak no matter how you look at it. Note that an area on the 9am radar image has been circled. An earlier RUC model run indicated that the nose of some stronger mid-upper level winds would be entering our area in East Central Florida by very late morning...and along the leading edge of these winds some low/mid level lift could be generated. I was expecting some possible enhancement of the shower activity associated with this activity (that was at 4am). The latest run no longer shows those winds..but regardless..something is definitely happening in the anticipated area (Polk/Osceola County mainly). These showers are moving off to the ENE and will be affecting Brevard/Volusia county around 10:00-noon time. Also believe if we're going to hear a rumble of thunder from aloft today at all..it will be associated with that cluster.

NOON-5pm: This period will be characterized by cloudy skies, SSW-SW and eventually west winds in the 8-15mph range. Continued showers across the state mainly south of a line running from Jacksonville, Leesburg to Tampa (or pretty much along I-4)..with clearing from west to east as the day progresses. Thus the area around Ocala, Crystal River, and Tampa will be first to realize the effect of the drier air moving in as noted on the water vapor image I've included. By 5pm the bulk of the clouds and remaining showers will have cleared all of the Central/Northern Peninsula...but not all of the clouds.

5pm-Wednesday: More affirmative clearing of the sky will commence during this time frame as high pressure builds in across Arkansas/Tennesse and extends south across the peninsula. Wednesday morning should dawn nearly clear with light NNW-N winds and a low in the low-mid 50s across the entire central peninsula. We are in a very progressive pattern, and as such, the wind will be quick to veer around to the NE to the ENE by days end. No rain. Maybe a few patches of clouds along the coast by late afternoon but nothing of significance.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: The air mass over the area won't have too hard of a time to recoupe moisture in the low-mid levels as continued long fetch of onshore flow continues. The wind will generally be easterly at 10-15 mph all day with scattered clouds and mild temperatures due to the onshore flow running over 60 degree Atlantic waters.

Thursday Night-Friday: Our next storm system by now will have already started taking shape right along the coast of extreme SE Texas and will be moving ENE across the northern Gulf Of Mexcio. Friday will dawn with partly/cloudy skies due to over-running of jet stream cirrus running out ahead of the system (and associated with the southern branch jet stream). It will be a very mild morning Friday, with a low in the low 60s everywhere. As we go through the day Friday the wind will gradually veer to a more southerly direction under mostly cloudy skies. Despite the clouds...we should still warm into the low-mid 70s along the coast and a notch warmer and inland into the north/central peninsula.

Later Friday-Saturday: Leaving this time frame, as I have for the past couple of posts, for a later time as far as details go. This will be our period of most active weather. As usual, timing/placement of features differences from model run to run, and amongst the models themselves, behooves there to be indepth discussion made. Suffice it say for now, though, that we can expect a good likelihood of rain during this time...possibly in the form of some hefty thunderstorms with good wind gusts being the primary threat (other than the 'given lightning'). As just stated, timing is an issue and will be fundamental in determining just how strong (if they even will be)..the storms could be.

Sunday-Tuesday: Although there is timing descrepancies for the Friday/Saturday period for further elaboration during that period, by Sunday whatever is going to happen will have happened. We'll then be in for a somewhat prolonged cool down. Prolonged relative to what we've had recently as far as cool downs goes. But NOT prolonged like we had the first 10 days or so of January. Nothing remotely close to that. No freezing temperatures...just pretty cold with lows getting into the 40s and barely reaching the mid 60s for a day or two. Plenty of time for indepth discussion in later posts.

For now the focus is on what's going to happen after 10 a.m. this morning to mid-late afternoon..then late Friday through Saturday night.

Under A Fine Dividing Line For The Day

(Images: 9 a.m. radar and dewpoint temperatures. Little change in this for the day)

Very little change in forecast thinking from yesterday much to my surprise. Radar clearly falls in line with the dewpoint fields depicting where the most available low level moisture is available. What is surprising is the temperature gradient between the immediate coast and areas further west. Cape Canaveral only got down to 64 last night where as inland areas and the west coast were in the low-mid 50s. Only the immediate east coast from Cape Canaveral and points south were in the 60s overnight and early this morning.

TODAY: Winds will maintain a general easterly component to somewhat of a ENE-NE component the further west one goes. Due to extensive cloud coverage all day..the high will struggle to reach 70 degrees though. What about rain? Canaveral received a trace earlier...but measureable amounts will continue to be a teaser all day. It's quite possible that from Patrick AFB and points south measureable amounts will be received...but north of there? In general, where you see the rain now on radar (with the line drawn)...the rain will fall south of that line. Actually, there is a chance that areal coverage of the rain area will decrease by late morning/early afternoon. In the meantime, a weak inverted trough remains right along the east coast then out to sea right around Canaveral as a low begins to take shape somewhere NW of the western tip of Cuba and the NE edge of the Yucatan Peninsula. North of the depicted lines shown, expect totally cloudy skies with a high just below 70 degrees. South of the line expect off and light-moderate rain early then decreasing during the afternoon with a high in the mid-upper 70s (the further south one goes..the warmer it gets).

OVERNIGHT-MOST OF TUESDAY: The boundary will edge north as the surface low and inverted trough unify as a full bore quasi-stationary front which will reside just to the north of the current existing dividing line. A weak low pressure surface system will ride along the boundary greatly enhancing the chances for rain, especially after midnight. It is highly unlikely there will be any thunderstorms..although in the very heaviest of showers a remote in-cloud or cloud-cloud lightning flash might create an audible thunder roll. Temperatures tonight will be mild everywhere..even further inland tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s.

LATE TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The low that crosses the state will strengthen somewhat as it pulls out into the Atlantic and races up the eastern U.S. seaboard. This will likely create some additional crapola weather for folks in North Carolina and eastern Virginia in the form of frozen precipitation like snow/sleet/freezing rain. We'll let them worry about it...because for Florida it will remain dry. We will be under the influence of the southern branch jet stream though..so expect periods of cirrus or cirrostratus clouds and very mild to cool temperatures ('cool' is all relative to what one considers 'cool'). I'll have a long sleeve shirt or light jacket though if you get my drift. Perhaps if we get some good sunshine in during Wednesday and Thursday afternoon it'll be "all shorts" conditions.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Not going into the finer details due to the fact that it's still a ways away..but I think we can suffice it to say that another and stronger storm system will be heading our way. As of this morning..timing would place the worst of the weather over Central Florida during peak heating of Friday afternoon. Thunder storms, some with some strong winds, still appear to be a very real possibility this time. All the weather (of which will be described in greater detail both intensity and timing wise) will be moving out by early Saturday.

LATE SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO FUN. Much cooler to down right cold, especially by Monday morning. Not freezing cold...but cold enough to remind us that it isn't spring yet...not by a long shot.

Good Riddance January (Don't Return in 2011)

(Image: Daily rainfall totals submitted to the CocoRaHS from my location in Cape Canaveral. Monthly total: 2.34")

Not so subtle changes are in store for the area through Friday. Yesterday's front is now located somewhere between Cuba and the Florida Straits as high pressure to the north skirts across the mid-Atlantic region. Somewhat cooler and drier air being pulled down south from circulation around the high will encompass/impinge on much (but not all) of North and Central Florida today. Those folks not lucky enough to receive full benefit of the 'dry slot' will continue to experience a broken to scattered mid level cloud deck. At the time of this writing...it appears the dry slot has already penetrated NE Florida and is progressively working SW toward Crystal River. The result is clearing skies in that region. For the most part, there really isn't that much as far as high level clouds goes..and with some heating from above some of the mid level clouds over our area could dissipate for a brief time. However, believe any partial clearing will be relatively short-lived, so that by late afternoon (if not sooner) we will again be clouding up. Surface winds are currently out of a due north direction, which believe it or not is just a tad off the Atlantic if you go back and look at your atlas and Florida's longitudinal configuration with due North.

Today: Surface wind will initially be from the north to NNE..but gradually swing around to NE and then east after sunset. The temperature along the coast will peak out in the low 60s..maybe mid 60s if enough sun can come out for any substantial amount of time. But due to the fact that the winds will be progressively be blowing in off 60 degree water coupled with the clouds...they will struggle to surpass 65 degrees at best. No rain today though. Just cool, breezy, and cloudy to partly cloudy.

Tonight-Early Monday: The wind will remain somewhat breezy from due east overnight. This coupled with returning moisture from the east will keep the sky conditions status quo. For the over night hours this combination will be a blessing. It's quite possible the temperature will remain steady after sunset...and quite possibly go up a few degrees toward sunrise. Hence, don't believe the coast will fall below 60 degrees tonight. Expect higher level clouds to be on the increase during the evening...so by day break it will be cloudy, somewhat breezy from due east, with a temperature around 62 degrees.

Noon Monday-Sunset: Things get very tricky for this period. Timing differences on the NAM and the GFS remain substantial, although not as much so as the 00Z run last night. The GFS this year has historically been overly aggressive and fast with almost every single system to move in this winter so I'm not buying into it's timing. The NAM has been much closer to reality (in my opinion), although it does come up with some off-the-wall surface features from time to time. I did notice on the morning (12Z) run though that it sped up and is much closer to the morning GFS..which remarkably slowed down a notch at the same time. In other words, those two models seem to be zero-ing in on a 'happy medium' with which I'll try to make heads-n-tails of.

For now, as winds shift very quickly around from easterly to southerly by Monday morning a weak inverted trough will form right along the coast in concert with a weak surface low forming just WNW of Key West. Another very weak low could also form just of the coast between Daytona-Cape Canaveral. These two features combined will create a NE to SW boundary elongated across Central Florida which I guess one could call a 'warm front'. Indeed, the wind south of the boundary will be southerly...if not eventually SSW during the course of Monday morning working into the early afternoon hours. Rain showers are possible during this transition, specifically right along the east coast during this time frame. But they will be light and limited to a small area, specifically dear the boundary .. somewhere from Daytona Beach to Sebastian. Otherwise, the temperature will get up into the mid-70s, especially once the wind becomes more SSW during the day. This boundary will remain in place across Central Florida and make only meager penetration further north toward Daytona as the weak Gulf low traces a path along the boundary beginning Monday night. Rain chances along the coast will increase as well as further south from a Ft. Pierce to Sarasota line.

Overnight Monday-Tuesday: The most likely to be the wettest period with mild temperatures.

Timing is still an issue for this period as far as precipitation is concerned, but temperatures won't be much of an issue. Over night lows to remain in the 60s with highs in the mid-upper 70s on Tuesday. If indeed rain chances are as high as is currently depicted...mid 70s are the better bet. The sky will be overcast though no matter how one slices the pie. If there's going to be any thunder, it appears it will be during the hours of peak heating Tuesday. Instability indices are weak to nearly non-existent and warmer air will be over running the boundary at 850mb...but a moderate Theta-E gradient at the lower levels from south to north and colder temperatures higher up (at and above 700mb) may be get established under decent mid-level speed shear right along the frontal boundary which, if not thunder producing, could result in some locally heavy pockets of rain sometime between noon-8pm across Central Florida. In other words, I would be hesitant to head out the door anytime Tuesday without some means of being able to stay dry while outside.

Tuesday Morning - Wednesday: The surface low (and possibly a secondary one off the coast of Daytona) will race off to the northeast and drag whatever kind of boundary one opts to call it across central Florida to the south and out of the picture. Expect by noon Wednesday that weather conditions will have improved drastically. We'll barely even see a north wind behind the boundary as it pulls out..but instead go right back to easterly. Don't think we'll see totally clear skies...as some residual moisture will linger and jet stream cirrus clouds will also be in play. But for the most part...Wednesday should be an okay day. In fact, the nicest of the entire week. This seems to be about the only thing all the models agree on.

Thursday-Saturday: Until this more 'urgent for immediate attention and yet to be even exist yet' system has cleared the area this period will be broad brushed. A slightly more dynamic system will be forming over the east central Gulf as we move into Thursday night...which will again cross Central Florida..this time dragging behind it a 'by definition' cold front through. For now, let's just expect that some over running precipitation will develop later Thursday in concert with a warm front that will form (again, across Central Florida) as the low develops. Precipitation may very well become more convective in nature (the thundery type) as we progress into Friday. But be real, that's 5 days away. Before then, we have bigger eggs to fry. Let's get past Tuesday first.

Non-Eventful Frontal Passage Today

(Images: The Hunger or Wolf Moon last night. FB users - click on link to see all photos)

A cold front extending from the central panhandle region extends into the Gulf of Mexico as of 10am. Rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms accompany this boundary as well as in advance of it. Some anvil tops from the larger widely spread lightning producers over the Gulf are being spread across Central Florida well in advance of its arrival in combination with a variety of mid-level cloudiness being advected in from the SW and west. The front will pass across East Central Florida shortly before midnight (areas to the north and west at an earlier time..to the south..later).

TODAY: Cloudy and somewhat breezy. The high temperature will be held at bay into the mid 70s (tops) due to the cloud cover which will likely be even thicker during the normal times of peak heating along with evaporative cooling of the air at the lowest levels from any rain trying to fall from these clouds. The latest sounding from KSC supports a S-SW wind around 12mph with gusts as high as 30mph over open land/water areas...but generally gusting in the 18-25mph range from the south and SSW all day. The heavier showers are now mainly limited to the area over the warmer waters of the Loop current off Florida's west coast. Once these move over cooler waters their intensity will likely diminish in 'intensity'. The PWATS (preciptable water values) are still below 1" locally (based on KSC's Sounding),...and without a good moist column the whole way up...and yet drier air further south being advected in from the south at the mid-levels (as evidenced from Miami's sounding) we will be hard pressed to actually see rain reach the ground running roughly east of a line from just south of Daytona to between Orlando and the beaches...for the most part..east of I-95 for the majority of the day.

Should rain reach extreme east central Florida..it will be after 6pm in the form of light, stratiform rain with accumulations less than 1/4".

TONIGHT: The front will actually pass through Brevard in the wee hours of the morning Sunday. Obviously, it will pass the areas further north and west earlier as that is the direction it is coming from. Temperatures may eventually drop down to the low 50s/mid-40s further west and north and into the mid-upper 50s in the more immediate area.

SUNDAY: Sunday may very well be the coolest of days we'll have for the entire week ahead. But considering what we've grown somewhat accustomed to..it will be of no impact. Low in the mid 50s with a high in the mid 60s. Skies will likely start out mostly cloudy but begin to break up by late morning to early afternoon. The front will continue its south bound journey to the frontal graveyard (the Florida Straits)...by late Sunday while its most southern/western tail will linger just west and south of the keys. In the meantime, high pressure will quickly skirt across Dixie. A brief period of NW-N winds for the majority of this day will be quickly replaced by NE winds by evening under clearing skies with the cooler temps as alluded to.

MONDAY: Our next weather maker will already be making plans for an impact on South and Central Florida. The lingering tail end will eventual coalesce into a weak surface low. A weak, appendant warm front will run up the peninsula quickly swinging those NE winds the whole way around to SE-S by day's end. The air mass will have had little time to dry out...and thus won't have any problem recouping whatever moisture will have been displaced. The result will be increasing clouds again from south to north...with an increased chance of rain late Monday into Tuesday. Wind fields actually look pretty impressive for a brief window of opportunity (of thunderstorms)...but the atmosphere will likely remain to thermodynamically stable to generate anything more than isentropic lift along this warm front...hence cloudy conditions and a stratiform rain could very well be a big player over night Monday into Tuesday.

TUESDAY: At this time it looks like Tuesday will be totally cloudy with a good chance of light-moderate intensity rain showers. Temperatures to remain in the low to mid 70s due to the cloud cover and this potential of rain with SW-W winds in the 10-20 mh range.

WEDNESDAY: Gradual abatement of the rain but continued cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy as yet another system begins to take shape and approach the area for later in the week. Might have to watch for coastal spits of rain too...but we have several days to monitor for that potential.

This latest system toward the end of the week may need to be watched carefully! There are hints that some form of severe weather with this one could materialize. Obviously being as far out as that is from now...there's nothing remotely close to clear cut on any such evolution..but it will continue to be watched as the week progresses to see if such sort of development continues to appear as probable.

IN SUMMARY: Highs all week will be in the low-mid 70s (except Monday when it will be in the mid 60s. Lows will remain in the mid-upper 50s away from the coast, whereas the immediate coast might never drop below 63 (except for Monday). It will be a somewhat interesting week to be monitoring all of these developments...if for no other reason than it beats forecasting and/or observe nothing other than a blue, dry sky (from a meteorlogical perspective). Granted, the weather this entire week will not be all so great for the sun worshipper (hey..I worship the sun too..although from some of these writings one might not think so). Bring on summer..sun most of the day..followed by a storm. The best of both worlds.

Reminder: This discussion is generated from a humble apartment and is not the official forecast as provided through the National Weather Service located in Melbourne. We are concluding Florida's Official Severe Weather Awareness Week today...not because the threat is over. On the contrary, it's strategically timed so that we have ample time to prepare for any upcoming severe weather in the coming weeks and months ahead! Historically, the most significant tornado outbreaks occur in Florida during El Nino years...specifically during the last two El Nino events. February and March are still to come...be prepared NOW. Highly recommended is a Weather Radio. I got mine at Publix of all places. But do have one, especially one with the S.A.M.E. alert feature.

Full Moon In Leo - The Heart's Desire (click on this for details)

The Native Americans called it the Full Wolf Moon. In the coldest time of winter, wolf packs were heard howling hungrily around the villages. Also known as Hunger Moon, Old Moon, Moon After Yule, or Full Snow Moon.

TODAY: We're right on track for the day with a high in the mid-70s under a generous mix of low, mid, and upper level clouds...but no rain. The low this morning along east central Florida bottomed out around 58-59 degrees (a good 4-5 degrees warmer than yesterday). Areas further north near Ocala were 10+ degrees warmer. As such, the high temperature will follow suite with a high in the mid 70s and even upper 70s in some inland locales. Some low level clouds associated with somewhat of a combination of a pseudo warm front along with a very weak inverted trough off the coast have joined forces and are gradually working there way north and east along the east coast and will eventually disappear altogether as stronger southerly winds aloft over come the area by late in the day. About the only evidence of this 'so called boundary' was an increase in the lower level clouds (stratocumulus) which already seem to be dissipating from the area. Light N-NE winds earlier in the day will eventually shift to ESE by day's end but will be of no consequence as they will remain on the very light side.

TONIGHT - EARLY SATURDAY: Very mild! Winds will eventually become more assuredly southerly if not SSW by early morning under continued variable sky conditions. We will remain rain free during this time frame. The low will not fall below 60 degrees tonight. Nice. It would be nice to see the Full Wolf Moon tonight...if we have a chance to (officially at 1:18am EST). I think there will be ample breaks in the cloud decks to, at a minimum, catch some good glimpses of it. From what I read, this is supposed to be the largest full moon of the year since the moon will be at it's closest point in its orbit around the earth.

SATURDAY: Here we go again. The approaching cold front will be in the western-central Florida panhandle. A good cloud shield will be overspreading the area...but for the most part Central and South Florida will remain rain free. By noon areas to our north, particularly from an Ormond Beach - Crystal River line will likely be receiving rain and a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Rain chances go up for the Central Peninsula, mainly on the west half of the state, by early to mid afternoon. But for the most part, those east of Orlando could very well hold off on the rain until well after sunset. Not to say there can't be some errant showers earlier..but any that do materialize will be few and far between. The high will likely again reach the mid-upper 70s...contingent upon just exactly how much cloud coverage there is between 11am-2pm which could vary at any given location. The wind for the entire day will be southwesterly and occasionally gusting into the 20+ mph range over open areas. But for the most part..nothing remarkable.

SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY: This is the period that the best chance of rainfall is anticipated. In line with yesterday, I'm going to hold fast to the notion that chances of thunder south of the Crystal River - Ormond Beach line will be very remote..with a slightly higher chance along the west coast as far south as somewhere between St. Pete and Sarasota. The diffuse and wide frontal boundary will take a good part of the midnight to 8am hours to completely traverse through Central Florida; therefore, expect it to be completely overcast with elevated chances of rain. I'm noticing today that again there is the implication that parts of Central Florida may very well not receive any rainfall at all. By late afternoon Sunday all over Central Florida we'll be waving goodbye to the front as it sinks down into the Southern Peninsula. But no need to cry...it's not leaving us for good.

LATE SUNDAY - LATE WEDNESDAY: The front will make it into the Florida Straits and eventually drift back north in some remnant form or another on TUESDAY and remain a thorn in the forecasters' side through Wednesday. This thorn will come in the form of trying to figure out if or when we will see some rain or perhaps some thunder, as well as the amount of cloud coverage that will exist. Temperatures won't be a problem though.

Seems there will be no cold air intrusion...not any time within the next week --although they will be shoved down just a smidgen. Pleasantly cool (two words combined that don't make sense..to me). Not warm, not cold. In fact, very little variation between morning lows and afternoon highs are anticipated (at least not from what one could normally experience), especially Tuesday and Wednesday...ranging generally between 60-70 degrees round the clock on those days along the coast ..but into the mid-50s west of the rivers and over toward the west coast. Warmer over the southern 1/3 of the state...cooler (much so) over the northern 1/3. Not until what looks like Thursday does the whole mess clear out in prelude with the next system to approach the area.

It will be fun to monitor to see what everything amounts to beginning tomorrow afternoon. I don't say it enough...but do remember that all forecasts and musings are of strictly my own and not from our friends at the National Weather Service. My twist(s) are an attempt to include down to more of the mesoscale level how ultimately coastal weather can vary from the 'west of the rivers' land area in Central Florida (for the most part).

Texas Panhandle/OK Battered as Florida Basks

(Image: A "waxing gibbous" moon At 95% full just before sunrise)

Another stellar day in store for Florida as the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma begin a major ice/snow event...hard to believe from the looks of it that our friends in the South Central Plains are encountering an incredibly horrible bag of mixed wintry treats right now.

Today: No change in forecast thinking for Central Florida. Throughout the course of the day high pressure at 850mb will be centered right over Central Florida...with the surface high centered just to our north. As a result, the sky will remain nearly totally clear with just a few minor wisps of cirrus with very light north winds. The temperature will flirt with 70 degrees for the course of the day and most likely reach that point from Satellite Beach and points south...up by Canaveral they will likely reach 70 west of the Banana River. There are a few mid-level clouds just offshore (beyond the horizon)..but believe they will remain well offshore as the mid and low levels are still too dry to support a cloud deck over the land area and winds higher up are out of the west (but very light as well). North winds will eventually become more northeasterly by sunset but remain below 10 mph.

Tonight/Tomorrow: High pressure now offshore will shift winds to the northeast and eventually east at less than 10 mph with continued clear to thinly scattered cloud conditions. We'll see low 70s most everywhere tomorrow...so continued pleasant, even more so than today. The low temperature will be a good 5-10 degrees tomorrow morning than it was this morning everywhere. High clouds will be on in the increase by mid-late in the day...but will be of little consequence.

Saturday: Now's when some appreciable atmospheric changes begin. As already mentioned in two previous posts, indications were that the next system would be slower to arrive than originally thought several days ago. This 'slower' trend continues. That said, winds will veer to southeast over night Friday into Saturday morning and begin to increase to the 10-15mph range under mostly partly cloudy skies with highs in the low-mid 70s east of the Banana River...mid-upper 70s west of there. Some of those clouds off shore will have a good chance of reaching the peninsula by Saturday morning.

During this time a low pressure system will be skirting along the northern banks of the Gulf of Mexico (extreme southern Mississippi / Alabama/extreme western Florida Panhandle). At the same time we will be returning to more of a prevalent "El Nino Jet Stream Pattern" aloft, which this low will get caught up in. That is, the southern branch jet stream will be racing overhead from across the Baja of California...Old Mexico...and the Gulf of Mexico to almost directly overhead. The result is that the low will continue to move almost due east and it's appendant cold front will be 'stretched' in an east/west fashion and struggle to work into Central Florida for the course of the day. Anticipating a significant increase in mid-upper level cloudiness ahead of the front though as a result of this upper level lifting..but little in rain chances until well after sunset. Temperatures will be held at bay in the mid-upper 70s everywhere as a result of the clouds...but other than that there will be little to gripe about.

Late Saturday Night into Sunday: The models are finally coming to somewhat of a consensus that this will be the period of most likely rain chances. However, I'm not sold on any semblance of significant 'action' to occur. There is noticeably less low level forcing along this boundary compared to our previous one as the gradients between various parameters in instability and winds won't be nearly as 'tight' ...instability will be nearly non-existent as well as any kinematics as winds will become nearly unidirectional with height. Any showers that manifest will likely get torn asunder...resulting in only sprinkles. Hope I'm wrong though because it would be fun to at least hear thunder Sunday afternoon. Actually, the latest Day 3 outlook provided by the Storm Prediction Center is eyeing this area for some strong thunderstorms (in the form of wind gust associated with them)...but even they are questioning that potential.

For now, if I'm going to err it's going to be on the side of less of a chance of appreciably active weather happening rather than on the more likely side. In fact, parts of Central/South Florida may see no rain at all. Drat! I'm not completely giving up 'hope' just yet though...but there's a little bug in the ear that's saying 'forget it dude". We'll see.

Late Sunday Through Tuesday: Another fly in the ointment beyond post-frontal conditions. Things still look on track for the surface winds to veer quickly behind the front and swing around to a northeast if not easterly component within 24-36 hours after frontal passage (rather than the usual 2-3 days of cold/dry northwest winds). This is the good part. It won't be getting cold at all after the front passes (just a little cooler). The atmosphere won't have to work hard to advect lingering moisture across Central and South Florida as the front continues to get stretched and be all but non-existent as it enters the cold front graveyard (the Florida straits.)

I've got some thoughts in mind as to what could transpire by Tuesday morning as a result...which you might not like to hear (hint, hint)...so I'm going to refrain from mentioning them until tomorrow to see if there's any continuity in the next two model runs. For now, though, since this scenario was depicted for the past 3 runs..we can at least mention that it's not clear cut exactly (so keep this in mind when you hear/see our forecast for this period on TV or other media outlets)...but for now. After a brief respite of 24 hours after the front goes through...we could see a quick return to the weather going downhill Tuesday into Wednesday. I haven't watched the news/weather in many many days on TV..so I have no idea what is being broadcast across the airwaves. Stay tuned...cause we could get wet in the early portions of mid-week next week.

"Red Sky in Morning...Sailor Take Warning..."

(Images: Sunrise Monday shortly before the remains of an approaching squall line crossed the area. This was quite a sight for the 10 minutes that it lasted)

A storm system over the Southern Plains is taking shape as strong high pressure crosses the SE tier of states early today. The high pressure will be the dominant weather feather for Central Florida through Friday.

TODAY: As anticipated, there was a marked temperature gradient between the coast and areas west of the Banana River this morning. At the time I looked, Melbourne was 40 degrees whereas Cape Canaveral and Patrick AFB were around 52 degrees. For the most part though, the central peninsula was in the low-mid 40s. More full sunshine today with a light NNW-NNE wind all day at around 10mph. It will be a couple of degrees cooler today than yesterday...by 2-4 degrees. As long as one is in the sun and out of the wind it will feel warm and quite dry. Especially between 12pm-2:30pm. The wind will gain a little more of the easterly component by late in the day (hence the NNE wind stated above)...but will swing more NE-ENE over night under continued clear skies.

THURSDAY: Another big temperature contrast to start the day. Perhaps even bigger than this morning. The light easterly wind won't penetrate past the Indian River...but will greatly moderate the temperature for those lucky enough to receive it's benefit along A1A and perhaps into Merritt Island as well. Expecting a low around 56-58 along the coast but still in the mid-40s west of the rivers. The wind on Thursday will predominantly remain easterly at around 10mph throughout the day with essentially clear skies. We may see some patches of stratocumulus clouds at times throughout the day, especially within an hour or two of sunrise then again at sunset as moisture levels in the lower atmosphere increase as a result of the Atlantic breeze coupled with the times when the sun's strength won't be mixing the atmosphere as much. The afternoon will be warmer all areas with the old mercury flirting with the low 70s.

FRIDAY: Quite a mild morning for everyone with a low in the mid 50s except close to 63 along the A1A corridor. More clouds, ahead of what will be a full bore storm system entering the western portions of Dixie Territory, will stream overhead, but we will continue rain free. Inland areas will likely be a bit warmer during peak heating than the coast as a continued onshore wind component blowing across 58 degree near shore Atlantic waters from the east to southeast will keep the immediate coast just a notch below the warm side. And those temperatures coupled with a lot of the suns full power not being realized as a result of increased clouds will make it feel less than stellar but not bad at all. A weak inverted trough will form along the coast to abet in some of the clouds by late in the afternoon...but still no rain...at least not until some very isolated showers begin to formulate during the very early morning hours of Saturday....with emphasis on very isolated.

SATURDAY: Here's where things get tricky, so expect some amendments to this portion of the blog in future posts. The wind overnight Friday into Saturday will continue to veer and be almost due south by sunrise of Saturday. The low will be in the low 60s most areas. As was noted yesterday, there were hints that this next system to affect the area seemed to be coming in later than was previously thought on the first post where it was initially brought to light. It seems the trend now is yet even slower than thought yesterday. So we've gone from thinking it would initially be here at sunrise Saturday..to that it now appears it could wait until about sunset. Without the aid of any data/models...experience, particularly from this season, tells me that future model runs will have it slowing down yet even more, but not by much. Weather associated with the front will precede its passing...and a marked change in the weather can be expected between late morning and early afternoon of Saturday. It's also uncertain as to weather this approaching rainfall potential will be in the form of just rain showers or thunderstorms (some of which could be quite strong). In any case, be prepared for a healthy SW-WSW wind on Saturday once the day gets going with a significant change (in the downward of favorable direction) in sky conditions and rain chances going from mid morning to mid afternoon.

It can't go unsaid that further elaboration as to just exactly what type of weather impact we can expect will be required. I'd rather provide information that is closer to definitive rather than 'cry wolf' 3 days before the weather is even supposed to get here. Thus, this will need to be addressed once we are within a reasonable time frame as to be able to make that assertion for this particular system.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY: The front will have cleared the area and will lay somewhat dormant in the 'cold front graveyard' of the Florida Straits. High pressure that always builds in behind a cold front (and normally cools us down significantly) will move rapidly east behind the front so that by Sunday afternoon we'll be back to NE winds with only mild cooling.

As a result, the atmosphere will have little problem recouping (moisture wise) from as it would if we had a prolonged 'land breeze, drier air' event. Hence, coastal clouds by mid-late day Sunday..and maybe even a low topped shower (very light sprinkle) can't be totally discounted from mid-late day Sunday through Tuesday (where we again get to open another exciting chapter in the weather book).

Florida's Severe Weather Awareness Week (click on this)

(Image: Show is the cap and T-Shirt purchased in Wakita, Oklahoma...the town made famous by Aunt Meg in the movie "Twister")

Does the sky get any bluer !? Wow, it's nice out there. Light NW wind and absolutely super blue sky. Almost surreal looking out there with cool temperatures. This is Severe Weather Awareness Week - 2010 for Florida. Click on the blog title or here to read more:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mlb/pdfs/2010SWAWGuide.pdf

Today: No change to yesterday's train of thought for our forecast through Friday. Strong high pressure is building across the Central Gulf of Mexico today. Circulation around this high will reinforce the cool, dry, clear conditions across the state. Clockwise circulation around this high will continue to pull down cool/cold air down the entire state today and into tonight with a light west to NW flow prevailing. Clear sky today with a high in the mid 60s area wide. Expect a high of 67 along the coast.

Tonight: Continued NW wind component will promote the coolest if not coldest day of the week leading into Wednesday. Over night lows into the low 40s for all of the area except right on the coast where it will be about 50 degrees by morning. No clouds to speak of.

Wednesday: Coolest of days under continued clear skies. Wednesday will essentially be cooler by about 4 degrees for both a low and high temperature along the coast, but it will much colder inland druing the morning hours as high pressure passes overhead. Another uneventful day...but have a jacket around except maybe during the peak heating hours of 12pm - 3pm.

Late Wednesday Night into Thursday: Subtly nice change for the coast, but not inland. High pressure will have moved just east of the coast overnight promoting a nil to very light onshore wind component over night. Inland will be calm. Net result will be primo radiational cooling and drainage flow down the spine of the state and another cold start to the day west of the Banana River. The immediate coast could easily be a good 10 - 15 degrees warmer though. Thursday will essentially be the same as most of Monday was with a high in the upper 60s and just flirting with 70 by noon. Probably a few cirrus (very high cloud) wisps..but all in all a stellar day in store.

Late Thursday Into Friday: "Oklahoma where the wind goes blowing down the Plains." Oklahoma will be bracing for perhaps their biggest snow event of the year thus far as Florida begins to bask in warmth. A very complex set up will be evolving for our friends in the South Central Plains as a variety of low pressure systems congeal and work in hand with cold high pressure to the north to promote snowy/icy conditions in Oklahoma and N. Texas. In the meantime, all of Florida will be experiencing return SE -S flow around the back side of the high pressure system which will be well off to our east and in advance of the evolving storm system to our west. A weak inverted trough will form just off the east Florida coast in response to this wind shift...with that given..by mid-day Thursday (if not sooner)..we'll see some patchy low and mid clouds..mainly along the coast to start. But higher level clouds will begin to stream in from the west as well. All in all it will be partly cloudy with perhaps some generally cloudy periods, especially later in the day and along the coast. But the temperature will also be modifying nicely...welcome low-mid 70s again!

Friday: Yet another nice day. Even the morning won't be able to be quantified as 'cool' with a low in the mid-upper 60s. All in all it currently appears that the partly - cloudy sky conditions will prevail with no chance of rain as winds veer to a more SSW component and the tmperature gets solidly into the mid-70s everywhere.

The Weekend: Original thinking was that by Saturday morning we'd be seeing the system coming out of the Plains to be traversing trough the Deep South and beginning to directly impact the immediate Florida Peninsula prior to sunrise Saturday. Will continue with that train of thought for now...the only fly in the ointment is that this system might be slower to move in than previously thought. Some of the latest forecast model runs are not yet available as of the time of this writing...but from what little information I'm getting now...it still looks like the majority of Saturday will be cloudy with an increasing chance of rain showers and perhaps some thunder. That's still quite a ways away...so more elaboration can be made in tomorrow's update. In looking further out though, it appears that the cooling impact of this next system (as stated yesterday) will be very brief...lasting only about 36 hours as the wind will be quick to shift to an easterly component with 24 hours of the weekend front's passing.

In Summary: Very cool through tomorrow under clear skies, then moderating temperatures and increasing clouds beginning Thursday with breezy conditions developing late Friday. Rain chances come into the picture on Saturday.