Phase III of Florida's Over Saturated & Under Stimulated Atmosphere

THE BIG PICTURE: UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FLORIDA, SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DEEP SOUTH WITH TRIGGERING IMPULSES, WEAK STORM STEERING SOUTH FLORIDA AND AMPLE SW TO NE STEERING CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. READ CAPTIONS AND SEE MORE  FOR FINER DETAILS BELOW

Phase III of the Saturated Saga continues today while precipitable water values (PWAT air) are equal to or exceed 2.00". Moisture isn't everything though as was noted yesterday for rain chances everywhere , but without a supporting atmosphere which provides the correct thermal profile. Today looks a lot like yesterday's ended up with. Namely, a bit of a dry layer just above the surface with most of the super saturation going on well aloft.


Best chances for heavy rain fall today will be for those near the Big Bend, Southeast Coast, near Lake Okeechobee, and lastly near the Central Interior favoring the east side after 2-3pm until dark. Some rainstorms could 'train' if the set up is just right, but where exactly that would happen is nearly impossible to determine at this time of day, if ever, until it pulls out of station on the last one out of town (later in the day).


As we can see below and the top image, anticyclonic tendencies are underway throughout the atmosphere today as the inverted trough/tropical wave has departed. Despite our high PWAT air, dewpoint depressions in the important 925-750mb layer (which is about 2000- 8000 ft over head) are fairly large (in other words, it's actually kind of dry in that part of the atmosphere just overhead, which includes the cumulus cloud layer necessary for rainstorm formation). That fact, combined with convective inhibition over eastern parts of Florida this morning combine to read: "Zero rain chances for many areas until early-mid afternoon, as noted below in this graphic, doe this area:

 However, the atmosphere across the state is sufficiently unstable (and thinking is that East Florida will be come less capped with time and might end up the most unstable 

by mid-afternoon after early showers other places act to stabilize the favored areas 

currently in place early today. There could even by some thunderstorm activity where stronger boundary layer convergences are set up. Heaviest rainfall will be where this occurs. (either resulting in a heavy thunderstorm or training of heavy rain storms). 

***IMPORTANT: If the dry layer in place this morning is not overcome, a rainfall 

chance in many places will go to ZERO or nearly so. Will this happen over most of the state today? Or, could it occur over just South Florida, Central, or North Florida? 

Every model has a different solution. Maybe all locations will get some rain when all issaid and done by 8pm tonight, if only a mere trace.  

So it will be proclaimed: 

Travel by flip-flops. "Walk tall and carry a big canoe" ( just in case). 
"Don't forget the Life-Savers". A location in North Florida received 3 inches in one 
hour yesterday.

When all is said an done, here's one guess in regard to where the best chances of rain are, and possibly a thunderstorm or three. Results can vary as indicated by the manufacturer.

NOTE ABOUT THIS IMAGE: The bounds toward the East side are not meant to appear as 'exclusive' to other locations on the West half of the state. That area holds just as much of a chance for rain as any other. This is to show mainly mid-afternoon to early evening activity (above), but any time - day or night- is 'game for rain' in the next 48 hours

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery  - Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) 

That's a mouthful.  Fear not. It's not complicated.  In short, I was watching this imagery this 

imagery earlier in the morning in time lapse to monitor the trends coming toward Florida over the 

Atlantic. Could be some drier air on the way in about 6-8 days based on the trends. And...

FUTURE: Every 2-3 days will be a different variation of the same theme. Each theme will carry a 

different demeanor in regard to when, where, and how hard it could rain (if it does, that is). This 

current trend now seems to be undergoing a change already. One that might favor late night toward early morning rain along the East Central Coast at 'surprising times', with the GFS actually adding

 up some good rainfall totals from near Vero toward Ormond Beach going into Tuesday, 

mostly due to over night rains. We shall see. Looks too odd  to lay the bucks down on that 

wager. I'm playing those cards  ala   Lady G..."Poker Faced".

And lastly, there's the stationary boundary shown in the top image that I've alluded to in several 

posts. It is now forecast to drop into Florida around next Saturday or Sunday with a brief period of 

enhanced rainfall.

BUT, heaven forbid, it passes through the state as a BACKDOOR COLD 

FRONT IN JULY?!! Shudder. Backdoor cold fronts are the most benign, boring weather monsters 

in existence in these parts even in the winter. So why is one being forecast for in July? 

Not so strange. We had a stationary front over Central Florida last summer that resulted in tons of 

moisture but very little rain (only clouds). If this front presses through (it actually is just the leading 

edge of high pressure working in from the north) MIMIC-TPW timing translates to much drier air 

working in behind it for a good 3 days at least. Could be Lidsville in Florida in the weather 

department  NEXT Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. But a lot can change. So far, it does not look like our pal SAL will not follow within the drier air (SAL - SAHARAN AIR LAYER, often creates very hazy skies).  'Cast a spell for rain, Witchiepoo!" (had to have seen the early 70s show to get the pun, but not "That 70s Show").

Witchiepoo Consults Her Weather Charts for the Correct Spell

Afternoon Update Concerning Mid-Afternoon through Early this Evening

For those in the far eastern reaches of Florida this afternoon. An area of mostly showers and some lightning strikes has been progressing slowly eastward this afternoon from its point of origin along the west coast since early this morning. This area is being proceeded by an area roughly along and west of I-95 from Eastern Orange County southward toward Okeechobee County of increasingly instability with surface based CAPE from 2500-4000J/kG and lifted index of –4 to –7. This would quantify the air mass ahead of this line of showers as very unstable.

 

There is also two spots of strong low –level lapse rates toward Southern Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie Counties. Steering winds this afternoon are toward the NNE, and low level helicity is increasing along I-95 toward the Indian River corridor as Southerly winds blow northward and up the intracoastals.

 

There is becoming a small threat for waterspouts with activity later this afternoon along these waterways, should the activity manage to hold together upon reaching the  pseudo sea breeze/synoptic scale gradient flow and be forced on through it. It is too hard to determine if that will be the case today. Just keep your eyes pealed primarily for some possible lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 35-40mph in one or two strong storms, especially if it is on the approach after 4:00pm today. We can see in the image the NONSUPTOR values.

 

nonsuptor  = non supercell tornado. This is not to mean that it is even remotely close that mariners should watch for waterspouts today. There has not been any official notification through the National Weather Service concerning that prospect, but it does seem to be becoming that there is the chance considering how these values have been increasing the past two hours.

Hoping Atlantis Can Hold Off Launch Until Sunday

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE AT 10:00AM EDT. Clouds persist near the Launch Pad. Any breaks for sunlight this late in the morning will refill with clouds due to high atmospheric moisture content.  ORANGE: Thunder storm is possible, but not solely (most likely). Most likely near the Gulf Coast but a secondary area near Orlando is emerging past 2 hours now that the sun has risen  GREEN: Where it could sprinkle, shower, or pour rain today YELLOW LINE: Most activity North of the Line will for the most part be earlier, then much later as well  SOUTH of the Yellow Line: Activity will begin shortly toward noon and last through 6-7pm in various locations as things develop and move. See comments for Special Notes.

THE SCOOP: As can be seen below, strong TUTT low in Northern Gulf persists and is currently beginning to fade off to the WSW with time through tomorrow. Thus, today is a transition day of sorts. Weak inverted trough and tropical area of Interest (Invest) will unlikely develop into anything beyond its current state. But never say never. It appears it will be absorbed within its own inverted trough which extends toward the Big Bend at this time during the day. The area south of the yellow line in the image above has less cloud coverage since day break and is therefore most likely to become unstable heading toward noon, more ripe for a stronger rain-shower or thunderstorm. Blue arrows show the surface winds in general and the general storm motion as noted in the image. Storms / showers might have a hard time crossing to A1A in Central to North Brevard due to stronger surface winds up the intracoastal. However, winds aloft, even at lower levels, are pretty strong today and might be able to overcome the sea-breeze/combined gradient surface flow for activity to reach A1A after 3-5pm.

IN THIS IMAGE: Upper level TUTT (Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric Trough) like low has moved little since yesterday but is drifting a bit westward. Meanwhile Showers and some thunder continue along the immediate Gulf Coast as we can see in this recent radar overlay with the upper level winds. We see in the purple over Central Florida that there is divergence aloft as noted by the purple circular blob that was sketched in by the computer analysis tool automatically. I've sketched in orange where thunder could occur due to this divergence aloft, longer daytime heating in this area, and as noted with the red-dashed line, perhaps an outflow boundary to form as the storms near the Gulf Coast collapse and send a boundary out to the east. It is uncertain if anything behind some spotty rain showers can form over far SE Florida today. Very little is working in their favor, at least until nearly dark. Original image courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center's website.

TODAY: We all want Atlantis to launch in perfect order; however, for the supposed near ONE MILLION viewers in the area, it would be very disappointing. Cloud coverage comes and goes, and any brief window to form which would allow launch would be a mere peep hole, with a verybrief actual 'viewing time'. It's possible that showers in the area any way might preclude launch altogether anyway. No sayin' what will be the decision until we're down to the dirty. If delayed, it will be for 48 hours. Much better! Sunday morning looks to be altogether a better situation for innumerable reasons, although it would be inconvenient for the traveler.


Otherwise, mostly showers today, some heavy. Could be an isolated few thunderstorms in North Florida, perhaps  one or two in Central and/or North Central. The biggest impacts from activity today would be over Central Florida, perhaps if only in a heavy rain shower. This would be from downdraft winds that would translate the forecast 25-35mph winds not far above the ground to the ground. Thus, wind gusts could be 38mph in strong downdrafts of a thunderstorm, or around 25-30mph in a heavy rain-shower. Most activity should abate not long after dark as cloud cover will be vast and energy is sapped. SE Florida toward Dade/Broward/and South Palm Beach County could be in for an evening surprise, but so far it's almost a stretch to believe so. I've omitted an area NW of Lake Okeechobee that bears watching as well.


SATURDAY: Looks more like a mid-afternoon to early-mid Evening rain-shower and thunderstorm set up favoring the interior and toward the east coast with time. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm more with less cloud coverage during the earlier part of the day. Overall, storm type will be similar in all regions and possibly of greater coverage than today.


SUNDAY-MONDAY: Somewhat of a variable of Saturday, but with less activity.


BEYOND: There is still a frontal boundary well to the north of the state that is forecast to sink toward Southern Georgia AT LEAST by mid-late week. This will increase thunderstorm chances as opposed to predominant rain showers, but it's not a given. This would fit the bill though given the synoptic set up (all encompassing), as the moisture source will be partially modified by continental air aloft (and thus a little cooler and more unstable) rather than fully tropical in nature as it has been the past 2-3 days.


CONTINUED STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK: Likely following a 2-3 day cycle, favoring different parts of the state in each cycle. No tropical entities worth mention outside of watching the area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico well west of Key West.

Late Afternoon Throuh Mid-Evening Rainstorm Chances Might Increase For Immediate East Coast Late Today

It is still possible that beach side residents from Broward County to extreme Southern Volusia could experience additional rainfall (or for others, their first rainfall), later today between 4-10pm ( with the latest activity further north).

 

Latest 'actuals'  matched with latest short term model runs indicate a trend for storm steering wind directions to gradually veer to more from the  SSW late this afternoon and tonight. In this regard, given that there are many locations that have not received rain, coupled with remnant boundaries around the state from recent or upcoming convection this afternoon to act as a triggering mechanism -  newer activity through 5-6pm could be steered toward the A1A Corridor from Ft Pierce to Oak Hill or Daytona Beach Shores. Significant Lightning is not expected during this period, if it transpires, late today, of any consequence.

 

Coincidentally, it just rained here as I typed that last sentence for the first time.

Some "Locally" Heavy Rain Possible Today, Will Atlantis Soar Over the Atlantic Tomorrow?

Sunset Wednesday Night, Cape Canaveral
View Is Looking East as the sun's rays capture the top of this very tall, tropical like rain storm off shore

UPPER LEVEL LOW in Gulf. Arrows show the general direction
of cirrus cloud spread  from storm tops. Black area shows where there is less cloud coverage and more unstable air as of  11AM

SYNOPSIS / "SITUATION" TODAY: Not a whole lot has actually changed from yesterday, outside of some subtle, yet profound differences. Namely, the atmosphere over all of the state is more moist, rather than limited to the southern portion of the state as was the case yesterday. The other item of interest is an elongated inverted trough just off the east coast. This is related to a weak closed circulation which was pointed out yesterday near the western Bahamas. The circulation lifted north to barely just east of the Cape early this morning and is continuing a bit east of due north. Otherwise, the strong upper level low remains over the Gulf of Mexico, and is clearing evident on satellite animation with time ('movies') as shown in the image above.


TODAY'S WEATHER: After  hemming and hawing over model differences regarding exactly where it will rain today, I'm opting out on leaning toward ANY model. Instead, riding with experience. There is clearly no  lack of moisture anywhere today (more in some places in others, but not by much); however, there are some differences in the mid-levels  heading into North Central Florida and toward the Panhandle where rain chances are reduced. 


Otherwise, ongoing convection over far South Florida is leading me to believe that Dade and parts of Broward County might be having most of their rainfall as I write. After looking at the KSC sounding, it was determined that the convective temperature was 83F. Easily to be reached, and in fact, that is what the temperature is now. For all I know, a storm is brewing as I write!  


However, there is some cloud coverage to deal with. Winds are very light today at all levels below 20,000 ft. With both conditions in place combined with the bizarre placement of low and high pressure systems, a sea breeze collision is highly unlikely any where. Additionally, any sea breeze that can form will be so light and remain close enough to the coast that it will have very little bearing  in regard to storm initiation. Likely, storms will form from boundaries that were left over from yesterday in the most favored area today, which is over land.  And near where Land/water boundaries are located such as west of the intracoastals and near inland lakes. 


All convection over night sticks to the warm waters, and during the day it sticks to the land  (and well off shore).   So based only on the past, the biggest impact will be very heavy rains in localized areas due to the mass quantity of atmospheric moisture available and slow storm motions. Other storms could start to trigger off from outflow boundaries by earlier storms, with the peak of activity from 12:30pm - 4:30pm. 

IN BLACK is shown where I'm thinking the best chance for a thunderstorm COULD occur today, that will produce more than just 2-5 lightning strikes.  Otherwise, ANY shower could produce even just 1 lightning strike. Most activity today will be primarily heavy rain, but there could be just a few good lightning makers state wide. Most likely within the area in black west of US1.

One other item I'm watching for  today. It may very well be that those who live along the immediate barrier islands or anywhere along A1A north of Vero Beach toward South Brevard might never seen any heavy rain at all today. Reasoning? With such light steering winds, storms will want to hold on to the land mass. 


Thus, the folks closer to US1 are more likely to get heavier rains (at least for any duration) than those at the beach...with the heaviest amounts west of US1 toward I-95 and further inland.  Rainfall totals could be as high as 3" in one or two locations, and as low as ZERO in others.  Most rains over land should end shortly after sunset, if not sooner after loss of daytime heating, coupled with the atmosphere having been stabilized from the heavy rains and cloud cover. 


There is a chance some rains could occur over night though in just the reverse pattern, that being, lighter rain showers near the coasts at almost any time.


LAUNCH DAY: Hey, maybe the launch could go if tomorrow is anything like today. There is little in storms around other than South Brevard as I write (and JUST found out. How's that for reaching the convective temperature as noted in the previous paragraph?; however, there is considerable high and mid level cloud coverage. If that factor will prevent a launch, then it would be a "No Go". I'm not completely learned, nor could I locate, the exact  'cloud ceiling' criteria to prevent a launch, although I thought I had read it can be as low as 3000 ft (do not fully trust the source).  Do not believe "Cumulus Clouds" will be a factor if tomorrow is like today. But never say never. In short, the 70% chance of a "No Go" as I've learned this morning sounds as good as any.





BEYOND/TROPICAL: The Hurricane Center is watching an area between South Florida and Honduras. The area is given a 10 percent chance of development, but at this time the chances look slim considering that longer range models indicate persist shearing further north from  the upper level winds (which are unfavorable). Remember the first image above showing the closed upper level low which is expected to meander for several days.  But given time, should the system stay south for who knows how long, it could develop. And if it does so, then who knows which way it would go considering that other factors within the atmosphere (namely wind fields) would have changed by that time. As it stands NOW though, it will not develop.

In the extended to cut to the chase. Latest Long Range is showing continued plentiful moisture in place more often than not heading toward the last week of July, around the 21st. Not everyday, everywhere, in the same places. Naturally, wind fields and other variables will change (as they are even just today let alone 3 days from now or longer in time). In other words, not seeing a return to drought conditions any time soon. Maybe one day it will actually rain more trace where this writer lives. Not sure why I even have a rain gauge. 

Chance Of On-Schedule Shuttle Launch Bleak, Umbrella Stands to Flourish

Inverted trough with weak, not quite closed low circulation over the Bahamas. Tropical wave extends NNE-NE from near Honduras.  Persistent upper level low over North Central Gulf to gradually drift WNW through Saturday. Circulation around the base of this low provides abundant upper level cloud coverage, persistent. Any low to form appears will take a journey toward coastal North Carolina while a combined Florida Spine of the State trough merges with moisture from decayed tropical wave./inverted trough Thursday - Sunday over Florida. Net effect is rain and some thunderstorms, primarily Friday and Saturday (and beyond......)

SYNOPSIS AND WHAT'S "ON TAP": For one, it's not beer. It's water aplenty in the atmosphere. The word of the next 7-10 days is PWAT...Precipitable Water Values. Values ranging from 1.75 - 2.30" is on the 'normal wet season level to high end tropical like".  Tropical wave/ inverted trough will enter Southeast Florida beginning tonight. High precipitable water values of 2.00" are already over some of South Florida, but of this attributed to moisture in the upper levels. Rainshowers are already around much of the keys and far SE Florida. Believe most of this activity will remain over South Florida today and enter portions of South Central later in the day. Umbrellas, goggles, and snorkels required to breath outside by Friday over much of the state, wet suits - optional.


DAY'S AHEAD: There is a near stationary front near the mid-Atlantic Region as well as a trough axis running south down the lee of the Appalachian Chain. This trough could extend into North Florida later today and be the impetus for thunderstorms over North Florida near I-10 toward Gainesville.  This front is expected, as noted two posts ago, to sink south into the weekend toward North Central Georgia. As the tropical wave is lifted north and low level ridge axis  builds in behind it across South Florida, providing for a SSW-SW Florida at the low levels through at least Saturday.  Beyond that point in time, the front may sink further south later in the week toward next weekend as the ridge axis lifts toward Central Florida. This would favor the I-4 Corridor and south toward North Brevard County for afternoon thunderstorms while South Florida dries out with isolated diurnally driven convection possible far removed from the frontal boundary and deeper moisture. A portion of yet another tropical wave now far away could possibly provide more moisture for South Florida heading toward NEXT weekend.


TODAY: Upper level low remains over the Gulf of Mexico, providing for SW flow way up there in the atmosphere around 25,000 Ft. Cloud tops of showers and storms in the SW Gulf combined with diffluence aloft in the Eastern Gulf periodically results in enhanced period of Cirrus Clouds over much of the state.  Deepest moisture should be able to reach as far north as Martin County/Indian River County line  by sunset tonight, continuing to progress northward over night and approaching the Beach Line to Orlando to Tampa line near sunrise Thursday.


Rain showers and thunderstorms (mostly rain showers except as noted below) will cover much of South Florida by mid-afternoon. Believe extensive cloud coverage from there on out will leave the area cloud covered with dwindling light rain late this afternoon due to early onset of convective showers and thunder.  Other showers might be able to make it onshore the SE Coast, emanating from the SW Bahamas. Outflows and continued most unstable atmospheric feed from the Gulf could continue some thunder chances near the SW Florida Coast. Meanwhile, outflows could also spread moisture northward, resulting in a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm in interior portions of Okeechobee or far Southern Osceola County toward Indian River County (although not sketched in).

Green line shows in general the northern extent of rain chances up through 7pm. Showers/Storms over North Florida not associated with the weather occurring over South Florida today. Elsewhere, high clouds, and some cumulus mainly inland. Some spotty showers could form in other locations, but would be of such isolated nature I didn't bother trying to sketch those in.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY: Over night, showers could regenerate near either coast of SE/SW Florida and work northward to the Cape area at sunrise. Thursday appears could hold promise for higher rainfall totals as far north as the aforementioned "magic dividing line" primarily near the coast from eventually Daytona Beach south to Miami and along the SW Florida region.


FRIDAY:  Pattern Change / New Wardrobe Day: Whatever is left of the 'wave' over Florida will have pretty much washed out, but in its wake will be high levels of PWAT air from top to bottom. Expect that such levels of moisture in the atmosphere will hold residual cloudiness over the state Friday and all day for the moist (most) part. Some models are actually showing it to be raining at the Launch Pads prior to launch and throughout the launch window. Regardless, there will be lots of clouds around either way. So, if it were to launch, it will be brief to actually witness.


LAUNCH: As noted over a week ago, it still remains 'yet to be seen' for a launch. And if it does launch, good luck seeing it beyond 20 seconds. Rainfall Thursday will likely leave remnant cloud coverage, extensively so. Given the PWAT values (over 2.00") and forecast temperatures reaching in the mid 80Fs (at lease), combined with very low Lifting Condensation Levels, Lifting Condensation Levels, and convective temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs..convective type clouds can form with the first hints of day break. This should be the case  Friday and Saturday.
Beyond Saturday, convection should begin more  toward noon. That, combined with an earlier launch time would make launch more probable on Sunday..if it hasn't gone already. But debris clouds will remain to hamper a respectable, videographic view other than from right on the Center Proper from a Press Stand. The better chances for tourists and locals from far and near to actually get their money's worth (up to $3000.00 I hear, dang greedy scalpers) will begin on Tuesday or Wednesday as we enter a more solid diurnally driven convective regime and as higher PWAT, flippers-n-snorkel air shifts to just north of the Cape area.

SATURDAY: More residual cloudiness to start, with thunderstorms and  rain showers beginning late morning through late night. There actually could be showers somewhere over the state at any time between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, but of greatest coverage and strength from noon time through 6pm. 


SUNDAY:  Might be the first better chances for a launch, but personally, would like to have them wait until Tuesday or Wednesday as the deepest moisture by then has cleared South Florida and will be near and NORTH of the Magic Dividing line of the state (Dead Central, East to West), to nearly clear of the Space Coast.


NEXT WEEK: As noted yesterday, next week's weather appears will be dictated by a low level ridge axis running somewhere across South Central to Dead Central Florida. This will favor the I-4 Corridor toward just north of the Beachline east of Orlando for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with continued High PWAT Air in place. Additionally, the surface frontal boundary will be located over North Central Georgia, possibly sinking toward South Georgia during the week toward next weekend.  Latest guidance indicates a pronounced drier period for South Central and South Florida, although likely not as dry as indicated. Sometime near the end of next weekend, the ridge axis should sink further south toward far South Florida, when once again this area will be in for more diurnally driven thunderstorms, widespread and more lightning prolific.


NATURE OF ACTIVITY: Believe most of the activity will manifest as mostly heavy rainstorms with some lightning, although there could be some isolated but brief lightning makers. Expect that the heavier rainstorms will manifest AFTER the wave has cleared the area and the ridge axis across North Central Florida relocates in its wake across far South Florida on Friday and Saturday, with activity decreasing along the east coast from South to North heading toward Tuesday, but with thunderstorms continuing toward far North Brevard to JAX and the Panhandle region for many days to come after Friday or Saturday. Severe weather is not expected due to the warm, tropical like temperatures aloft; some fairly steep (unstable) low level lapse rates will create the most prolific lightning making storms earlier in the day.


RAINFALL: Appears the overall heaviest rainfall totals, when all is said and done through Saturday evening will be over Far Southwest Florida and along the east coast from Martin County to St. Augustine, and possible a portion of the Panhandle Region. But most anywhere (with exceptions of course..probably where I live where it will barely rain at all)..can expect between 0.75" -2.-00" of rainfall, with isolated amounts possibly over 3.00". There is also the possibility that a location or  two will get 'zeroed in' on..and get over 6.00" by the end of Saturday or Sunday. Someone will win the 'rainfall jackpot'...TBD.

Low Chance of Showers Today With an Increase Far South Wednesday

FLORIDA WEATHER TO BE DICTATED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES (AND LACK THEREOF) THROUGH MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. The first of which could start to affect South Florida later on Wednesday and most of the east and mid-portions of the state by later Thursday into Friday

TODAY: Overall, not much change from how the day closed out at sunset yesterday. The greatest band of concentrated moisture remains just along and south of "The Great Divide" of Dead Central Florida south of the Beach Line to Orlando and then south of I-4 from Orlando to Tampa Bay.  This divide was mentioned throughout posts most of the winter months as well. 


The greatest concentration is over South Central Florida arcing SE ward toward Miami and the Florida Keys. There is two pronounced "dry slights" in the mid-levels, which seem to be a result of subsidence (sinking air) ahead of an inverted trough (tropical wave) as shown in the image above.  


Net affect of subsidence (sinking air) and continued 'dry slots' (more pronounced than yesterday) will be significantly less showers and thunder today, as already indicated by the lack of early morning activity over South Florida and zero cumulus outside of my location at this hour...if even a cloud.


The only areas at this hour which hold any potential for a shower based on early day instability are near Cape Canaveral and the Keys (oddly, the two driest locations in the summer months); however, at Cape Canaveral the dry slot is affecting the mid levels as indicated by the morning XMR (KSC landing strip) sounding  which shows lack of moisture above 15,000 ft. The Panhandle region is under a totally different synoptic scale regime altogether, and holds the most promise for some isolated thunderstorms today. The Tampa Bay area, although sketched in above as well as SW Florida remains a bit sketchy. That given:

TODAY: I'm opting to lean toward the Devil's Advocate for those who like showers and thunderstorms to cool off  in during the late afternoon hours now that we are in full bore summer. I've seen the forecasts discussions and will opt out to downplay the day for a change. Maybe I'm just in a bad mood. Markings indicate where rain/thunder chances
could exist today from mid-afternoon through sunset at some time or another.

NOTE: There is plentiful moisture in the low-mid-levels over much of South and South Central Florida at this time, but believe most of that could remain trapped below 15,000 ft, which means nothing more than a brief shower could form over that area in the presence of warm, tropical air aloft. It's definitely not the 'convective season' any more, when cold air aloft is present, and the day could otherwise result in some strong but isolated thunderstorms.


TOMORROW: Appears the first hints of the tropical wave will be recognized over South Florida to near Lake Okeechobee by late in the day. Again, down playing the forecasts (mainly for Central Florida) until indicators come in greater agreement. Often, these systems are  often over-hyped, so going with climatological experience and persistence rather than what one model shows.


THURSDAY: By this day, most of the east coast form near Daytona to the Keys will be recognizing the dampening out wave as it breaks ashore in the form of showers, being as that this area will be first to no longer by under the leading, subsidence side of the trough coupled with deep layer moisture. 


FRIDAY-SATURDAY: These days could be dictated by early day showers evolving into thunderstorms by noon time through sunset over much of the peninsula. The wave, or what is left of it, could start to rotate NNW ward toward the panhandle and other parts of the Deep South.


Beyond Sunday and/or Monday it gets quite sketchy with the GFS taking moisture levels down, with a ridge axis across Dead Central. This would normally dictate afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, mostly along the I-4 corridor and over inland South Florida; however, guidance is painting the rain chances to be quite meager other than over North Florida.  Just have to see how things evolve at this early stage.


SIDE BAR: It is worth mention that the overnight NAM model shows VERY LITTLE to NO RAIN with this system that is approaching over the state. It instead shunts most if not all of the ACTIVE moisture well north and east of the state, leaving the state proper under moist but subsiding air, non-conducive for even a shower to form. So far, this is an outlier.. being  a significant change from previous output, but bears considering. 


On the other-hand, the GFS overnight was constant from previous runs. The only difference overnight was that the axis of greatest rainfall was shifted a bit further east toward the East Side of the state rather than right over the interior and west side. Overall, South Florida does not seem to be impacted either way with the change in the GFS, with rain chances looking quite good either way (outside of the NAM of last night's run).


SHUTTLE LAUNCH: It still appears (as it has for over a week now), based on the pessimistic chance of higher rain chances, that the Launch holds to be delayed due to weather, if not only due to cloud coverage. High PWAT air tends to hold cloud coverage overnight, slow to burn off. With some good rains in the vicinity by late Thursday looking probable, and very high PWAT air over 2.15"...clouds could be a factor and/or developing convective type rain-showers. On the other hand, there's always the NAM calling for sunny skies! ;-0. Then there's the last option that it will be able to go, but with significant clouds coverage making those 2000-$5000 dollar ticket sales terribly expensive for 20 seconds of eye-candy time.

Happy Fourth! Some Rain and Thunder Could Dampen Fireworks West Side Tonight

MEOW-ZERS! The day to go All-American, 2011. Pets Included.

TODAY: So far this morning, as expected moisture from South Florida is working north and now well into most of South Central Florida. Expect that by day's end it will have reached to about the Beachline, with a nice moisture gradient in the mid-levels to be established roughly around South Central Brevard on the East Side during the late afternoon and waivering westward toward the north side of Tampa Bay.


It is along this gradient combined with a predominant easterly flow in the low levels and likely Bay and/or west coast Gulf Breezes that the strongest storms today should occur toward early evening. Above this low level generally easterly flow, there is a weak mid-level current running from the SW to NE across South Central toward Central Florida. This might be enough for a weak thunderstorm or line of showers to form along the west side of the intracoastals of Brevard. Due to weak steering in the 11AM- 1PM time frame, some weak funnel-ish type clouds could form (small funnel clouds) anywhere from under the most tall cloud lines as rain starts to fall , or shortly thereafter (assuming this can even occur at all).  Otherwise, the combined efforts of geography and winds could place a heavier rain shower toward weak thunderstorm to occur somewhere around North Merritt Island toward Port St John before 1:30pm, especially as the sea-breeze is about to move in.  Lighter showers could also occur as far north as South or Central Volusia County west of the intracoastals.

YELLOW: Where Thunder Could Most LIKELY Occur. I've probably left too much out over SW Florida, but not so sure this area will receive a sea breeze today, so left it out given the early hour of the day and therefore, greater uncertainty regarding the events that will transpire today.  But, did throw in the area from Naples and North for extra measure for late this afternoon for perhaps a briefly stronger storm.

BLUE: The area near Tampa Bay into Polk County and maybe further north toward Spring Hill might eventually squeek out a stronger storm or two (which was not included) after 8PM as the moisture gradient lifts north even further, if it does.

GREEN: Where westward moving showers South Florida could form, and nearly stationary Central Florida early in the day before the sea breeze kicks in an pretty much kills any shower activity to the east of its westward bound passage.

TUESDAY: Even though moisture will be present, trying to determine just exactly where the rains will occur is a tough call. It appears that despite this fact, rain chances might be hard to come by other than near the SE-E coast overnight and early morning and more toward the West Side almost anywhere late in the day as the atmosphere becomes  'homogenized'.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY; Moisture increases and a variety of scenarios could unfold. Either way, by most likely Thursday is when there should be an uptick in coverage over almost anywhere in the state, with some stronger storms likely on Thursday and/or Friday.

FRIDAY: Launch could still be in jeopardy, if for nothing more than the cloud types which should form with Precipitable water values over 2" present.

BEYOND: Looks like a prolonged one week of high PWAT (lots of moisture beginning Thursday). The nature of rain activity does not particularly conducive for strong storms, but rather more of the garden variety with warmer air aloft and little in boundaries. Sea breezes collisions might be hard to come by wiht a near uniform flow across the state. At time..it appears the I-4 Corridor will have the best chances of better storms as well as the northern Flanks of Lake Okeechobee and surrounding areas.

Could be a break in the rain activity going into Monday. After which point a weak frontal boundary could sink from the north toward North Central Georgia, providing better impetus for more organized storms over North and portions of North Central Florida by Friday going into the Weekend.

Possibly the Quietest Day of the Upcoming Week State Wide Today

AREAS OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS /THUNDER TODAY:
A rough sketch shows where it appears showers almost anywhere (within the yellow bounds), a thunderstorm could occur  (blue) and maybe a heavier one (in green). All activity will be generic for the most part other than that closer to the west coast and maybe one west of Lake Okeechobee

TODAY: As the title reads, and has been supposed would be the case for a few days, today appears will be about the most quiet day of the week across the state.  The last of the 'big moisture' has moved out and winds are becoming increasingly unidirectional (all from the same direction) with height. There is little to really stir up the atmosphere today, and temperatures aloft are warm but not too warm for thunderstorms to be able to form.


NORTH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL: Nearly clear today, especially at the coast with increasing cumulus clouds toward the west coast. East winds this afternoon at 10-15mph with highs at prime beach time in the mid-80Fs at the beaches. I saw there has been stinging jelly fish out there. Beware.  Water temperatures seem to haven taken a "July Plunge", not all that unusual this time of year really, north of Vero Beach.   Yet another reason that tropical activity seldom hits Central or North Florida this time of year from the Atlantic. As such, any rain showers to form over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream have a hard time completing a trek westward to the shore line. Therefore, believe any coastal rain showers will be reserved for locations from near Ft. Pierce and South, possibly toward sunset or as the sea breeze surges forth around noon time, namely coastal portions of far South Central. 


In short, for lightning lovers today will be the dreaded supposititious enervation in the "feel good when it storms' type of day. Find something else of interest.


SOUTH FLORIDA: The moisture is thinning out in this area as well, save for Dade/Broward County where some high cirrus clouds might be able to be thrown into the equation for good measure as the day wears on. There was a brief thunderstorm earlier over coastal Palm Beach county, possibly as the moisture was departing and saying 'bye bye'.  Believe that as a stronger easterly wind picks up the coast could clear out this afternoon  and provide the impetus for thunderstorm formation toward Lake Okeechobee and eventually the west coast...exiting the west side within an hour of sunset, if not sooner. There could also be an isolated late bloomer somewhere near Brandon toward St. Petersburg very late this afternoon toward sunset.


MONDAY-TUESDAY: Only some minor deviations from the pattern outlined above, although coastal showers might be able to progressively work northward toward KSC by late Monday morning, only if the form directly over that locaion rather than be advected (pushed on in) from offshore. Each day we should be able to push the thunderstorm chance just a shimmy further north. During the transition. Also, some storms over the Bahamas might be able to break loose and come very close to the east coast of Palm Beach or Martin County. Most of this activity will likely spark up during the evening hours and remain offshore. The 4th looks fine for "The Works" on the east side, but gets iffy toward the West coast. So far, things should have cleared those locations in time for any Colorfully Loud Festivities.


WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: More pronounced transition period. At this time the large dome of high pressure over much of the Central U.S. and Deep South will be breaking down and retreating west and south with time as the pattern begins to retrograde in the upper levels. During this time a large Atlantic ridge of high pressure will build in from the west toward Central and South Florida. As it does so, moisture is forecast (as it has been for several days) to dramatically increase into all of South Central Florida as well and deepen gradually through time to levels equitable to those of last week...but not as far north as I-4. Most likely this will have occurred by Thursday noon, but possible sooner. There will probably be a 'jump' in rain chances during the moisture surge of unknown proportions for greater coverage overall, as transition periods tend to be underestimated in that regard, both in coverage and strenght. This will be most notable across all of South Central Florida as far north as the BeachLine from coast to coast. South Florida will  just ooze into the transition more gradually and just see more of the same they will have barely broken free of.


FRIDAY -  FINAL SHUTTLE LAUNCH DAY: It is still not looking all so great for a final launch. Hope it can go at the time of scheduled launch, because as it stands now any delay beyond noon time will only increase the unlikelihood of a launch for several days if not a week. The pattern change, being as we will have been  in the current pattern for over a week by then and transitioning to a different one (these patterns normally take about 5-10 days to fully cycle in the summer)...could hang on in regard to moisture levels and how and where it is shifted around can vary every 24-48 hours, but it will be around. This would mean, if nothing more than, increased cloudiness. Whether clouds are around at launch time could mean one of two things: 1) Clouds would be of convective nature and of sufficient growth to warrant concerns for triggered lightning; or 2) they will simply be too dense, creating a ceiling type not suitable for re-entry. It could go though if: 1) Clouds have not reached sufficient height or density given the earlier time of day; and 2) It could launch with a break in a cloud deck, but would be awful for viewing other than in some lucky, chosen spot ...which in the case of the last launch was from an airplane 25,000 feet above the clouds.


FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A frontal boundary will try to work into the Deep South, but not likely reach Florida. A surface ridge will be across the Florida Straits or "there abouts"..resulting in enhanced chances of Thunderstorm coverage and everything else that goes with it. The pattern will shift toward the Spine of the State toward the West coast for a few days heading toward Sunday, with noon time showers from near the East Coast eventually shifting toward I-4 and the west coast later in the afternoon with time. The pattern might then return back toward favoring the east sideuntil the following weekend.


 It is not very often the A1A corridor from JAX to Vero is favored for thunderstorms to reach those areas, but it is normal for this to occur for a 1-3 day period every 10-20 days during the summer months (from my experience only).


 It is mostly west of I-95 that receives these rains, leaving the immediate coast (A1A corridor) in late day PTSD.."Post Traumatic Storm Debris" rather than a storm itself.


TROPICS:  The prerequisite clincher cliche of interest since, after-all, 'tis the season.


 No big whoop in regard to significant tropical development is foreseen. However, sometime into late week there are hints that some sort of 1 or 2 weak low level circulations could become organized, but nothing more than a weak circulation. Probably what the models are picking up on is perhaps some sort of convective feed back associated with a full day of thunderstorm activity that has moved offshore. Sort of a pseudo-MCC (mesoscale convective complex), but not of text book type by definition evolving from either of the peninsula itself or off Cuba.

Showers and Thunder Mainly Far South Central and South Florida Today

IMAGE FROM SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE: Weak low pressure
circulation off the east coast with a nearly stacked trough across far Southern Osceola County along the red dashed line in general. Little should chance today in this regard

TODAY: The mid-level trough axis that passed from North to South through Central Florida yesterday is now located approximately where the red dashed line is shown. Much drier air resides to the north of this line, mainly just north of the Beach-line. There is still sufficient low level moisture to generate cumulus clouds well to the north toward JAX, but whether showers can generate  in the area with the question mark and into the yellow zone (where there is even more moisture) is debatable. 


CENTRAL: Believe that given that there is some moisture well off shore, and the fact that instability is starting to reach 'moderate levels' all up and down the Gulf Stream, some healthy showers could manifest with a little more daylight well offshore. Guidance has been hinting that there could be a 'wind surge', or uptick in the surface wind from the ENE at or shortly after noon time. If so, this could act as a moisture converging mechanism, provide lift, and possibly much some showers on shore from just preceding the surge to just after ...that give this area roughly a one hour window, sometime between 11:15AM -12:30pm to get some rain, more likely in the yellow area.  TShowers will quickly dwindle as they reach beyond the Orlando area, if even. But note, there is a caveat in the second image for a renegade thunderstorm along or just west of I-95 in Central Brevard (roughly) during this time. If so, it would be short-lived. The other caveat is that the ocean temperature at the coast is cooler than that over the Gulf Stream the past few days. Showers, if they do generate there, might die off before reaching shore (which seems most likely).


SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH: Along and south of the trough axis is where the greatest moisture resides today. The caveat to this area is that there has been on-going rain/thunderstorms just offshore both coasts this morning to well on shore in a few areas. The SW Coast has not had as much, and far SE Florida toward Miami is well on the way to checkout from rehab , whereas the area near Tampa toward Sarasota might take quite a while, if ever to recover. But that might not matter either way. Showers/storms could form to the east of those locations and advect on in either way no matter which way mamma slices the pie.


Around Lake Okeechobee. Winds are light in South Florida today and only a weak sea breeze is expected; the best chance of a any kind of sea breeze/Lake Breeze collision should be somewhere in-between either coast and any lake side. This is likely where the biggest storms today will exist, as well as along and south of the trough axis.

NW FLORIDA: Completely different ball of wax, in their own synoptic scale world today. Moisture continues in this area that is quite unstable. Any storm in this area, and there could be 2 or 3, would have the greatest likely hood of being more powerful.

BLOG GUESS FOR TODAY: This images shows precipitable water values at this time noted by the number (in inches) and dark green being most likely to produce rainfall if other parameters are also present.

The most obvious area for better rain chances is somewhere within the yellow bounds if we ignore any outside factors that would negate rainfall. Some stronger storms around the Lake, but most definitely not all inclusive. There is, in my mind, also another area around coastal Palm Beach County as well as far SW Florida later this afternoon as outflows from the east meet the west coast sea breeze toward Naples/Cork Screw/Etc...  Additionally, outflows could affect the Northern Keys toward Key Largo ..whether they would generate further thunderstorms or just cooling breezes is Indeterminable. Also, somewhere in the Florida Panhandle could fall prey to some lightning and stronger wind gusts today .

Note the dashed around in East Central Florida. This area could produce some rain mainly only if a wind surge moves in around noon time. Maybe even a short -lived thunderstorm. For Brevard, the better chance of said thunderstorm will be closer to Indian River County...

SUNDAY: Looks a bit like a similar scenario; however, it appears the trough axis will begin to wash out, which in essence omits a focal point. After today's activity, a lot could change in regard to how moisture will have been redistributed by Sunday, as well as if the deeper, synoptic scale moisture will almost altogether be gone by noon time tomorrow in South Florida. It currently appears that there could be a brief coastal shower from Volusia toward Central Brevard sometime over night or in the early morning...with the main activity tomorrow to be focused more on the West Side of the state as the East Coast sea breeze becomes the more driving factor to initiate showers and eventually thunderstorms during the mid-late afternoon from near Tampa Bay and South..inland toward Lake Okeechobee.


JULY 4th -THURSDAY: Some variation of Sunday's pattern will continue, with moisture increasing along the East Coast from near Daytona Beach and South. This would mean possible early day coastal showers working toward the west with time and manifesting as thunderstorms west of the spine of the state as they approach the west coast sea breeze, that is, if it is able to manifest on that side. If so, it might stay very close to the coast. There could also be a variation to this very common theme. Especially by Shuttle Launch time. The launch 'could' still be in jeopardy. If only for an hour or two delay.

Rapid And Continuously Shifting Pattern Change Hourly = Magic 8-Ball 'Cast

IMAGE: Best guess, which will likely require refinement in only an hour or two from now, for today. Most concentrated area of storms or rain shown in red, with thunder in orange and showers (at least) in green. Suspect these areas will need to shrink down a bit (or even a lot) by the time we reach late afternoon.

"SHAKE THE 8-BALL TODAY, AND IF YOU DON"T LIKE THE ANSWER, JUST TRY AGAIN IN AN HOUR, BECAUSE IT WILL COME UP WITH SOMETHING DIFFERENT" FORECAST TODAY:


Huh? Here's the situ' today. Rapid transition from the pattern of the past several days is in place. Not unexpected to eventually occur, but it is happening fairly rapidly in big chunks. Now that the Tropical Storm (Arlene) is fully out of the picture and hot/dry hot pressure is building eastward across the middle of the county, available atmospheric moisture is shrinking from North to South (North Florida), and South to North (South Florida). We now have one narrow band of enhanced moisture across Central Florida which is rapidly shifting east and off shore as well as thinning out quickly off the coast of Brevard County just south of a developing pseudo-stationary front combined with a mid-and upper level trough axis. This latter feature is sinking slowly South from roughly Southern Volusia County toward North of Tampa Bay and is expected to continue this trend into Saturday, at which point it will be located near South Florida by 'storm time' tomorrow afternoon.


Meanwhile, sea breezes are developing from the ENE over coastal North Florida and from the E-SE south of the boundary. The moist moisture throughout is converging ahead of this boundary as stated near of just south of the Beach Line to Tampa, but is thinning out.  South Florida, roughly South of Lake Okeechobee, is holding its own with a respectable amount of moisture, but that too has thinned considerably compared to past days. Otherwise, it looks like a few mid level impulses will ride along the boundary over North Central to eventually Central Florida or South Central later today/tonight.


In the meantime, the west coast sea breeze appears to be getting a head start as of noon in regard to sea -breezes, and for a change the east coast sea breeze has taken shape a bit. Believe the West Coast breeze will be the dominant boundary today, at least until 4-5pm. Convection, per imagery (above) has already begun over far South Florida and might already be worked over for later today despite what model guidance is indicating since it showed not activity in this location as of just an hour ago.


TODAY: Much less coverage of random light-moderate showers, with isolated stronger thunderstorms today mainly east of the spine of the state will approach the east coast from the West-WNW-NW 9 (with time) over Central Florida and from the West-WSW over South Florida.  The east coast sea breeze will likely keep stronger storms from getting east of I-95 north of 528 but can work into US1 , diagonaling closer to the coast from Mibco toward Vero Beach and south toward Ft Pierce/West Palm Beach from 3pm. and beyond. Given the sunnier sky today, Lake Okeechobee breezes will form and could impact any location around the Lake, but favor the east side over Northern Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, and possibly comb St. Lucie County closer to the coast line. All in all, there could be mass accumulation of lingering rainfall toward the east side of the state from Indian River County south to Martin County until late this evening by the time all is said and done, or roughly the South 1/2 of the area outlined in 'red' in the above image.


STORMS TODAY: Storms today will again hold the potential for lightning, possibly more prolific than in days past (other than the few stronger storms that formed). All in all, there might only by 2-4 particularly strong storms today, somewhere from South Brevard County to Broward County...roughly anywhere the 'red' is drawn.  There is a small chance of a funnel cloud or water spout near the coast just off shore from Indian River County and south. Perhaps another area to watch would be near Mosquito Lagoon...but that area seems will 'wash out' too soon for favorable wind conditions before any storm (if there is one) can reach that area.

Think I'll resort to the Ouija Board.


SATURDAY: Again, it is is hard to determine what tomorrow will bring considering the rapid transition currently at play. The best bet for storms/rain tomorrow appears will be over South Central and South Florida, with perhaps some early morning activity close to the coast of Brevard and/or Indian River County through early -mid morning before the sea breeze sets in (which should be early).


SUNDAY: Much quieter most locations with drier air over all locations. Best chance for storms appears will be over South Florida ,south of Lake Okeechobee...mostly favoring SW Florida.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY; Increasing moisture from South to North, possibly reashing the Beachline latitude by Late Wednesday or Thursday. The moisture return will not render the same type of weather conditions that was seen over the state the past few days...in that this time it will all be occurring a bit 'in reverse'. In some ways, it looks like the entire pattern will start to actually 'retrograde', and end up with somewhat of a bit modified pattern by next weekend to that which we just have experienced in regard to wind wind fields, only with less overall total moisture across a vast expanse.


4th of July: Looks good for Fireworks North and East Central, Interior Central and South Florida look more posed for possible problems


SHUTTLE LAUNCH: Not looking so great for a launch as scheduled now. There has continuously been indications that some deep moisture will either be in place or nearly so on this day. It might have to be delayed for no other reason than the clouds


OH GREAT. Just heard thunder, and I have yet to hit the send button. Good grief...there it goes again.