Chance of Heavy Lightning Storms East Interior Late This Afternoon

Developing situation at 1pm. West coast sea breeze and showers with some lightning is progressing eastward. Believe it will slow down during peak heating. Otherwise, storms on the east side could start in full by 3pm. Thus, timing on rain chances could be deemed too late in the test below. But, believe the west coast sea breeze will slow down a little over the interior. Meanwhile, very weak seabreeze is forming over portions of SE Florida very slowly and working north. And most importantly for today, the outer barrier island of A1A/Brevard is developing a more southerly wind. This should increase in strength ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL after 4:30pm...setting the stage for the remainder of the day/evening. Otherwise, inverted heat troughs along the east coast should set up between I-95/US1 or even US1/A1A (more likely north of Vero Beach).

SET UP FOR TODAY: Actually, not a whole lot different from yesterday. The main difference is that the stationary/cold front over the Deep South is slowly sinking south and will become a much bigger player in the forecasts for Friday and Saturday. Also, the bane of South Florida's existence, the surface ridge, has sunk south toward the Florida Straits adding an further twist to the equation.  Otherwise, weak sea breeze is established way out in no-man's land (barrier islands) which I expect, as it always does, will turn almost due south and strengthen after 4:30pm. This is realized more along the river ways than at the beach oddly enough. The sea breeze elsewhere will remain light and very shallow in vertical depth, with light west to east steering across the South Half of the state and just a bit from the WNW over the North Half. Everything becomes increasingly convoluted over far East Central Florida as usual..caught between a rock and a hard place it seems all the time. Note comments on the above graphic. Once again, dead Central is the LEAST likely to have early afternoon storms beyond a rain shower as noted below (see the comments)

SOUTH FLORIDA: The area near Lake Okeechobee to Miami is under a completely different regime than further north, although most areas will rely on moisture convergence being forced upward to generate storms in the absence of any triggering mechanisms either way. The air mass is more dry over South Florida today than yesterday, but not THAT dry. Rain showers are getting a later start, but should become a bit more numerous by mid afternoon. Some thunderstorms could form along either sea breeze and merge first in Palm Beach toward Martin County with the Lake O breeze. The bay area around Key Biscayne might also be a hot trigger spot where deep moisture convergence is already at hand. Outflows from this activity will set the domino tiles in motion for further development, but believe any thunder down in South Florida today will be a bit more isolated than in days past due to warmer air aloft than the past two days. Most likely areas are in orange (but not exclusively so).


NORTH FLORIDA: Closer to the stationary boundary and a mid level trough axis running along I-10. Both early and late activity possible, the latter being the strongest. This activity will include St. Augustine, Flagler County, and possibly Central or only Northern Volusia County, but probably not all THAT strong.


CENTRAL FLORIDA: Same as yesterday, only different. In the case of yesterday, South Florida was the more unstable by far, and activity there  started in Martin County worked very very quickly into St. Lucie, then Indian River, then South Brevard Counties like clockwork and as anticipated in the post. Outflow worked right up the sea breeze (which was close to the coast the further north one went)  and triggered more activity along the west bank of the Indian River toward Titusville due to the enhanced river breeze combined with outflows from the south.


In the case of today, North Florida is more unstable and has more moisture. Thus, more shower and storm activity is expected here. More rains, more outflow, and south it will go into Southern Volusia toward North Brevard. Meanwhile, some activity might try to work north from Indian River County as well due to a Lake Breeze induced storm near Martin County.  


In the meantime, the sea breeze proper should remain very light other than out on the barrier island strip, while the upwind intracoastal will be even stronger. With time, this wind could work into far North Brevard toward Oak Hill, depending on long it can last before interrupted by incoming convective showers of appreciable depth and how strong it actually becomes. 


The two different storm genres of North Florida and far North Central should begin to merge...but any true to life  sea breeze activity could start up by 4:30pm.  Today's forecast was based on the assumption that the intracoastal wind machine will interact with the Orlando Heat Island from 5:30pm thru 7:30pm. There could be some pretty good storm coverage over East Central Florida 'somewhere' west of I95 if things materialize as envisioned. Otherwise, it could be just another day like yesterday.  The reason for why I think it might have more coverage is due to another factor.

There is a TUTT low (upper level) passing west of Cuba today. An inverted upper level trough axis could very well be extending NE from the low (the NE quadrant aloft). Along this trough, which is near the jet stream level, there would be divergence aloft. This would be the 'star' factor for more coverage today than yesterday because divergence aloft bodes for rising air currents below. Sort of like holding a tube of toothpaste upright, taking the top off, and squeezeing from the bottom up.  
To paste coming out the top is your thunderstorm.  The harder one squeezes, the more paste you get. But how hard will the 'squeeze play' be today?  Otherwise, the atmosphere if pretty much the same. Well, that, and temperatures aloft are just a degree or two cooler than yesterday...SUPPOSEDLY based on morning soundings from Tampa and KSC. However, those soundings this morning might have been taken at a time when a cool pocket was passing overhead; too hard to say 'for sure'.

MOISTURE WAS SQUEEZED TOGETHER (CONVERGED) ALONG US1 ON WEDNESDAY CREATING THIS NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS AND A THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKLEDGE

STORMS TODAY COULD BE: Under the assumption there will be more coverage, as the saying goes, "The more the merrier". And in this case, the more outflows boundaries and drier air aloft, the merrier the lightning maker will be. Would not be surprised to hear a statement for excessive lightning be made around 6pm tonight somewhere west of I-95 in the area noted below.  The other factor today would be excessive rainfall over the interior. More areas that are very close to cloud to ground lightning will likely experience some bigger rainfall totals. But why? Lightning is often triggered during the peak updraft phase of the storm and as the down draft begins in full. Storms will move very little if at all today over the interior..especially after 7pm as storms most everywhere become predominantly downdraft ridden. Thus, if one is near the lightning, they are also near the eventual downdraft filled with 'water'.   Could be some stronger wind gusts in the initial down 
pouring of rains from any storm because the air aloft is a little drier today. Drier air cools more efficiently, and cooler air rushes to the ground faster, and the faster it rushes to the ground..the stronger it expands outward upon reaching the ground.


ACTIVITY SHOULD END fairly rapidly after 7:40pm and be reduced to dwindling light rain by 9pm where the greatest concentration of outflows eventually ends up over the interior. Winds aloft from the east should clear out the anvil debris to the west and allow the remaining clouds to dissipate rapidly toward midnight.


FRIDAY: Different set up. We'll deal with tomorrow when it comes. The stationary boundary will be sinking further south. The plot thickens.


WEEKEND: Good luck with this one. The GFS was very good with calling for a backdoor cold front to enter the picture this weekend. Remember, this was first mentioned in a post over a week ago. The only difference now is two fold 1) will a weak surface low form well east of Florida or Georgia with the boundary going stationary somewhere just east of Florida?; or 2) will it move on in to Florida and wash out over the state as some sort of inverted trough near the east coast...setting up for some bigger rain chances as soon as earlier in the day on Saturday? Playing it by ear for now. The jury is still deliberating, and not ready to call the liar's bluff.

Enhanced Version Of Yesterday - Some Stronger Storms South (??) FloridaG

GOOD INSOLATION (heating from the sun) IS UNDERWAY AT 11:00AM. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEGUN NW FLORIDA. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALMOST DUE SOUTH LIMITED TO THE CAPE AT THIS TIME. Showers have begun to form and between 11:30AM and 2pm should increase in number and strength, especially over South Florida where none exist. NOTE: This post assumes there will be activity over South Florida today. This will be a driving factor for Central Florida later today. Thus, if it does not manifest in South Florida a lot of what we have written below can be disregarded, almost in full.

SYNOPSIS (The "In General" Look): Today looks much like yesterday from all appearances on the broad scale. There is a difference though. Namely, a trough of low pressure in the mid-levels is starting to develop off the U.S. NE to Mid-Atlantic Coast and slants back into North Central Georgia. The long advertised surface front (stationary over Georgia) is getting to be aligned with the mid-level trough. Meanwhile..a weak circulation is forming in the mid-levels south of Panama City, and this can be seen as causing the enhanced area of shower and thunderstorms off their Gulf Coast.


The sounding at KSC looked almost identical to that of yesterday. The one in Miami is actually showing colder air aloft than those at JAX, KSC, Tampa, and Tally. The moisture levels at MIA, and as indicated by water vapor satellite derived imagery show that Dade County is about the driest location in the state, but not so dry that a storm or storms cannot form into this location. The Big Lake breeze is already becoming active into Palm Beach county with a weakly developing low level W-SW flow just above the surface. 

MID LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE. There is the low circulation near the Panhandle's Gulf Coast. It is just a bit drier over SW Florida and Dade County /Keys.  Note the broad expanse of westerly winds over the North 1/2 of the state closer to the developing mid-level low (and trough further north) where the pressure gradient (change in pressure with distance) is a small bit tighter (more drastic). South Florida/Everglades is 'almost' out of the picture with the enhancing mid level winds but still moderately unstable.

TODAY: Outside of these synoptic scale changes in the mid-levels regarding the winds, much of the state is starting to become uniformly unstable. The area MOST stable/least likely to see much activity earlier today is mostly the North 1/2 of Brevard County, especially east of US1. For other areas from Ocala/Gainesville/Ormond Beach/JAX/New Smyrna it's just a matter of time for the west coast sea breeze to push eastward. A few showers could form near the intracoastal, but the bigger activity will wait another 3-4 hours as the west coast sea breeze continues east bound.


SOUTH FLORIDA: Meanwhile, the Lake Okeechobee Breeze has started to a small degree. Cold air aloft and weak steering will dictate storm motions to be nearly stationary, but will propogate newer formation along the weak east coast sea breeze combined with the Lake Okee breeze close to I-95 if not east of there over Palm Beach, Martin, and Broward Counties as well as Okeechobee County, maybe a bit later in the Northern Part of that county.  Colder air aloft per MIAs sounding might mean some stronger down draft winds, especially in Broward and maybe even interior Dade where the upper levels are a bit drier. These storms would rely on outflow from storms further north to form..which isn't a full on given. 


NORTH FLORIDA: West Coast sea breeze is acting much like yesterday with similar soundings in the' temperatures aloft' world. Not expecting anything strong, but they could become more efficient at producing lightning the further east they progress due to greater instability 'heating up' the longer the sun is up. Some of these storms might be able to work off shore or get east to I-95 toward US-1 before they start to decay, especially north of  Daytona Beach.

1 (one) Meter winds courtesy of Melbourne's NWS Office provision on the internet.  Note the blue fields. Those are slightly stronger winds. We see westerlies strengthening over the Gulf and toward the West Coast. These are enhancing the west coast sea breeze there. We also see little 'bubble lows" setting up along the immediate coasts and by some larger lakes (blue arrows). There is also a few closer to the 700mb trough axis (drawn in red..this might actually just be a weakness in the ridge), OR weakening of the ridge up that way near I-10. These could be reason for a shower to form heading toward early afternoon. There is a down right trough along the SE Coast of Florida from Dade to Palm Beach County. Another reason to believe there could be storms close to the coast there. Other bubble lows along the SW Coast. These could form into weaker thunderstorms as well by early afternoon. I'm ignoring the one over North Brevard. That one is either gone..OR..is stronger than shown toward N. Titsuville/Mims. 

CENTRAL FLORIDA: Central Florida currently has the most moisture in the mid-levels per some model guidance, although I couldn't really see it on soundings. This is a bit of a typical WSW flow day, albeit, weak. Usually, Central Florida is the last to see the rains on this day...especially toward the East Side. There is a sea breeze out by the cape..but it is nearly parallel to the shore rather than directly on shore at this hour. This would mean that the convective shut-down engine toward US1 might not be as much of a factor today if the direction holds true to form. Additionally, not one piece of guidance indicates that the winds out on the islands will be anything but SSW, up the waterways today. In fact, they show the winds to lose any semblance of 'sea breeziness" after 6 or 7pm. This will enhance low level helicity up the coast from near the Pineda to Daytona Beach, with the off-hand enhancement in N. Brevard West of the Space Center. Might see up and down rain showers near by this location today though before later this afternoon.


BIG STORM TIME: 4:30pm -7:30pm, Believe most of South Florida will be getting turned over/worked over by latter portions of mid-afternoon with an outlier storm resulting from any remaining boundaries. North Florida will remain active until about the same time..but changes are in store which more directly will effect that area, so it's harder to pin-point times/locations. 


Equally as difficult is East Central Florida. It does appear that like that past two days (more so yesterday) outflows from Okeechobee, Martin, and maybe St. Lucie County would work northward toward Orlando to Titusville to Melbourne. Additional outflows from that activity going across the peninsula further north could also come into play from the larger activity.  By this time though the west coast sea breeze might be East of Orlando or very close to it. Boundary mergers, no matter how unfavorable for storms the environment might be over Seminole, Eastern Orange, Brevard, and Indian River Counties should be able to overcome those weaknesses and result in a good downpour of rain/rains in this area, somwhere.

Two scenarios could unfold 1) That of the past two days...with a large area of rain and lightning forming in toward North Brevard/Southern Volusia north of SR 528 and working off the coast with time, barely phasing the rest of the county. OR 2) Activity, if it gets going as it COULD (emphasized) further south, would enhance activity building northward into SW Brevard closer to the coast, propogating further activity up US1-I95 toward Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral after 7-8pm.  This has happened in the past, but remains an outlier due to the fact that it is so rare to occur and is not really depicted by the mainstream models.


THURSDAY? (we ask): Good question. A lot will depend on whether a low forms off the Panhandle, and what the net affect of that would be. Based on past guidance, it appears we could have one more day of activity mainly for Central and North Florida with the ridge axis over South Florida starting to lift back to the north with less activity down that way and favoring more toward the west side as the day progresses. Further north, North Florida appears will get MORE wet with time, whereas most of all Central Florida form Coast to coast plays the waiting game, with a lot of its weather dependent what happens between those regimes to the North and South, combined with what happens in the mid levels once again. Oi Vey


FRIDAY-SUNDAY: More of an "interior, later in the day pattern establishes, primarily over the North half of the state. Friday could be fairly active though from Southwest Florida up toward I/4 (Orlando) then along and North of I-4 toward Daytona Beach. It is thought this will be a sea breeze merger day favoring the west side south of 528 toward TPA and closer to the east along I-4 toward Jacksonville.

Read captions, keeping in mind the comments made in the paragraphs above

Similar To Yesterday - Buyer Beware, Results Can Vary

GUST FRONT looking north toward the Canaveral Air Force Station early Monday evening. The storm itself was well to the north. This cloud formation was created by low level, cool outflow winds encountering warmer and more unstable air further south and out of the rain and clouds

TODAY: Overall placement of the low level ridge axis has changed little from yesterday. The main difference today from yesterday is that yesterday there was a mid-upper level low pressure circulation over SW Florida with a trough axis extending toward The Cape, which left more clouds overhead until mid-afternoon. That system is not in play today, so the clouds were absent at sunrise. This in turn, is allowing a broading expanse of land mass to get heated up, and consequently more unstable over Central Florida. Otherwise, winds aloft are quite similar. 


NOW: There appears to be a mid-level disturbance entering NW Florida as of 1pm. This is triggering some rain showers that likely will become thunderstorms with time of short lasting duration initially.  Over SW Florida (coastal) sea breeze induced thunderstorms have already developed close to the coast. Meanwhile, over the Everglades it is once again the most unstable, primarily only at the surface. Thus, rainshowers have already begun in this uncapped and unstable enviroment. With onset of a stronger Lake Breeze suspect that thunderstorms will be in the offing in short order in that region, which could cover a vast expanse. Although, do not think they will cover as much terrain as yesterday since precipitable water values are lower today in South Florida. Regardless, there should be some good coverage, an reach very close to  eastern shores of the Lake into Palm Beach and Martin Counties (amongst others).

LATER TODAY: Like yesterday, it's a waiting game to see when, where, how, and why the strongest of storms...perhaps only 2 or 3 will form after 4pm. Storm strength should peak between 4:45pm - 7pm. I have annotated where I believe this should occur with more text below for the reasoning. HOWEVER: this reasoning is based solely on the current conditions. Model guidance, at least in regard to precipitation fields, was not followed.

EARLY GUESS FOR ACTIVITY FROM 2PM and Beyond. (Thunder along the West Coast was not included since it is currently in progress in a few locations).

 THIS AFTERNOON: Thunder to the north generated by disturbance aloft which should be shifting just south of due east this afternoon. Sea breeze north of Daytona Beach might have a hard time forming and might not be an extra boost for storm strength today.  Further south, the sea breeze has already formed but is likely sticking very close to the coast and might not get much further west than I-95, of if so not until after 5:30pm toward Central Brevard and South.  The area along th purple line seems to contain more mid-level moisture, but that could easily change. This would be one of those "not shown but needs to be watched later" type areas, especially into Eastern Osceola County toward Deer Park and Hollopaw.


LATE THIS AFTERNOON: As noted on the graphic, strongest activity should commence in isolated manner as the sea breeze reaches it's peak strength with two hours after peak inland heating. Winds just above the surface seem to be strong enough from the west to make this a fairly shallow sea breeze. Dew point depressions start to low after peak heating at the same time, so low level mositure convergence along established wind boundaries could set things off. The strongest storms will manifest the greatest rainfall potential and lightning strike potential. Overly strong winds are not anticipated. There is a minute chance of perhaps pea sized hail in the event that one particular storm updraft manifests some unforeseen microscale favorable environment, mainly near I-95 or in toward North Osceola County toward Narcoossee.


TO CONSIDER: A lot of yesterday's activity left all kinds of dormant wind boundaries over Osceola County as well as around North Central Brevard toward Seminole and Orange Counties. Whether those boundaries are present could not be determined, but it would not surprise me.  Storms will begin to be their strongest along the East Coast Sea breeze in Volusia County and should work southward along the East Coast sea breeze with time, much like yesterday. 


Note that actually storm motions from west to east will be close to nil south of Daytona Beach...so in a sense, storms will build along (propogate) along  whatever direction pre-established boundaries exist combined with the boundaries any storm itself creates. AND, this does not take into account any new OUTFLOWS from today's activity as well. Thus, for the most part, it is impossible to say for sure just where storms will be today, only the nature of when the strongest should happen.


The area that will be hardest pressed to see a strong storm if the sea breeze really picks up after 4pm could be the A1A corridor of Brevard County. This would be due to the cool ocean waters that currently reside along the coast. This is a typical phenomenon for this region, especially near Canaveral caused by upwelling of cool, deep waters to the surface. This upwelling usually persists for 3-4 weeks in July most summers.


BEYOND: More challenges with the local, mesoscale thunderstorm weather regime through Thursday, although on the large, synoptic scale not much changes as the low level ridge axis meanders around South Central to South Florida. It does look like more as if SE Florida will get into the stronger thunder activity perhaps on Wednesday.


FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The determining guiding ridge axis feature will pull away from the state just a bit, it will also lift north toward Central Florida. Steering remains weak, so this synoptic scale event will essentially shift the thunderstorm activity over South Central and South Florida further to the West with not as much of as an impact north of Daytona Beach to those along I-95 or east in regard to this ongoing pattern. Although, there is a chance that early day activitiy could form along the east coast seabreeze toward US1 around noon time.

SEE CAPTIONS: Ridge axis across Central Florida at 1pm with mostly cloudy skies
Big change overnight in the synoptic scale pattern due to large outflows from storms over the Carolinas Late Yesterday has disrupted the recent weather pattern for today. Tomorrow might be a recovery day as well.

TODAY: Brief post for today given the tremendous uncertainty.  Virtually every model was'disrupted' overnight due to what I believe was a storm complex over the Carolinas yesterday. Florida was first affected by outflows early this morning and is still trying to recover. However, the atmosphere inland is becoming quite unstable with pretty steep low level lapse rates developing per the SPC Mesoscale Analyis Page. (small scale) 


In a broad sense, the state today is divided vastly by two different air masses, one north and one south of the low level ridge axis shown in the image by the blue zig zag. Believe storm motions will be from the NNW north of the axis to almost from due north near the axis and then towards the SW over South Florida during afternoon activity. The far SE Coast is the most dry, but not so dry that at least showers can't form. There could end up being more showers down that way, especially over the Everglades than current guidance/thinking alludes.


Strength of the sea breeze late this afternoon is the deciding factor today on whether or not activity will get east of I-95. Based on the current steering evolving, believe most activity will stay west of I-95 after 2pm (north of Brevard County) and be at its greatest strength well inland down the spine of the state. Outflows from this activity could try to ignite fresher activity toward either coast after 6:30pm which could reach the immediate A1A corridor (in a much weakened) state after 7 or 8pm...probably only as rainshowers or clouds.. especially since steering back toward the east, albeit only around 10mph, becomes more 'stacked' thru the atmosphere toward sunset.


However (isn't there always a 'however'?)...recent Rapid Update Cycle spit-out is indicating some disturbances in the mid and upper levels very close to I-95 in Brevard near sunset. Should those manifest, than the east coast is more likely to see some activity east of I-95 in Brevard, Indian River, and maybe St. Lucie Counties.


And for the standard "there is always a chance that' note: There is a chance that some sort of surface low circulation will form over South Central Florida very late today to cover much of the area. This might need to be watched for more coverage of thunder. Given the amount of cloud cover at this time, though, I'm not fully convinced.


MONDAY-THURSDAY: Different set ups evolve in coming days as well until a stronger mid-upper level region of high pressure builds south from the North and shuts the 'on the wet side' cycle off. It appears that could begin as soon as mid-day Friday and last for quite some time. In other words, our days of rain on the east side of the state just about anywhere might be numbered for quite a while by later in the week heading toward next weekend. Once the high pressure builds in, as noted yesterday, it is followed by much drier air and unidirectional easterly winds from the surface and up through the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Any sea breeze convergence storms in this regime will favor the far west side of the state.

Phase III of Florida's Over Saturated & Under Stimulated Atmosphere

THE BIG PICTURE: UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FLORIDA, SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DEEP SOUTH WITH TRIGGERING IMPULSES, WEAK STORM STEERING SOUTH FLORIDA AND AMPLE SW TO NE STEERING CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. READ CAPTIONS AND SEE MORE  FOR FINER DETAILS BELOW

Phase III of the Saturated Saga continues today while precipitable water values (PWAT air) are equal to or exceed 2.00". Moisture isn't everything though as was noted yesterday for rain chances everywhere , but without a supporting atmosphere which provides the correct thermal profile. Today looks a lot like yesterday's ended up with. Namely, a bit of a dry layer just above the surface with most of the super saturation going on well aloft.


Best chances for heavy rain fall today will be for those near the Big Bend, Southeast Coast, near Lake Okeechobee, and lastly near the Central Interior favoring the east side after 2-3pm until dark. Some rainstorms could 'train' if the set up is just right, but where exactly that would happen is nearly impossible to determine at this time of day, if ever, until it pulls out of station on the last one out of town (later in the day).


As we can see below and the top image, anticyclonic tendencies are underway throughout the atmosphere today as the inverted trough/tropical wave has departed. Despite our high PWAT air, dewpoint depressions in the important 925-750mb layer (which is about 2000- 8000 ft over head) are fairly large (in other words, it's actually kind of dry in that part of the atmosphere just overhead, which includes the cumulus cloud layer necessary for rainstorm formation). That fact, combined with convective inhibition over eastern parts of Florida this morning combine to read: "Zero rain chances for many areas until early-mid afternoon, as noted below in this graphic, doe this area:

 However, the atmosphere across the state is sufficiently unstable (and thinking is that East Florida will be come less capped with time and might end up the most unstable 

by mid-afternoon after early showers other places act to stabilize the favored areas 

currently in place early today. There could even by some thunderstorm activity where stronger boundary layer convergences are set up. Heaviest rainfall will be where this occurs. (either resulting in a heavy thunderstorm or training of heavy rain storms). 

***IMPORTANT: If the dry layer in place this morning is not overcome, a rainfall 

chance in many places will go to ZERO or nearly so. Will this happen over most of the state today? Or, could it occur over just South Florida, Central, or North Florida? 

Every model has a different solution. Maybe all locations will get some rain when all issaid and done by 8pm tonight, if only a mere trace.  

So it will be proclaimed: 

Travel by flip-flops. "Walk tall and carry a big canoe" ( just in case). 
"Don't forget the Life-Savers". A location in North Florida received 3 inches in one 
hour yesterday.

When all is said an done, here's one guess in regard to where the best chances of rain are, and possibly a thunderstorm or three. Results can vary as indicated by the manufacturer.

NOTE ABOUT THIS IMAGE: The bounds toward the East side are not meant to appear as 'exclusive' to other locations on the West half of the state. That area holds just as much of a chance for rain as any other. This is to show mainly mid-afternoon to early evening activity (above), but any time - day or night- is 'game for rain' in the next 48 hours

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery  - Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) 

That's a mouthful.  Fear not. It's not complicated.  In short, I was watching this imagery this 

imagery earlier in the morning in time lapse to monitor the trends coming toward Florida over the 

Atlantic. Could be some drier air on the way in about 6-8 days based on the trends. And...

FUTURE: Every 2-3 days will be a different variation of the same theme. Each theme will carry a 

different demeanor in regard to when, where, and how hard it could rain (if it does, that is). This 

current trend now seems to be undergoing a change already. One that might favor late night toward early morning rain along the East Central Coast at 'surprising times', with the GFS actually adding

 up some good rainfall totals from near Vero toward Ormond Beach going into Tuesday, 

mostly due to over night rains. We shall see. Looks too odd  to lay the bucks down on that 

wager. I'm playing those cards  ala   Lady G..."Poker Faced".

And lastly, there's the stationary boundary shown in the top image that I've alluded to in several 

posts. It is now forecast to drop into Florida around next Saturday or Sunday with a brief period of 

enhanced rainfall.

BUT, heaven forbid, it passes through the state as a BACKDOOR COLD 

FRONT IN JULY?!! Shudder. Backdoor cold fronts are the most benign, boring weather monsters 

in existence in these parts even in the winter. So why is one being forecast for in July? 

Not so strange. We had a stationary front over Central Florida last summer that resulted in tons of 

moisture but very little rain (only clouds). If this front presses through (it actually is just the leading 

edge of high pressure working in from the north) MIMIC-TPW timing translates to much drier air 

working in behind it for a good 3 days at least. Could be Lidsville in Florida in the weather 

department  NEXT Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. But a lot can change. So far, it does not look like our pal SAL will not follow within the drier air (SAL - SAHARAN AIR LAYER, often creates very hazy skies).  'Cast a spell for rain, Witchiepoo!" (had to have seen the early 70s show to get the pun, but not "That 70s Show").

Witchiepoo Consults Her Weather Charts for the Correct Spell

Afternoon Update Concerning Mid-Afternoon through Early this Evening

For those in the far eastern reaches of Florida this afternoon. An area of mostly showers and some lightning strikes has been progressing slowly eastward this afternoon from its point of origin along the west coast since early this morning. This area is being proceeded by an area roughly along and west of I-95 from Eastern Orange County southward toward Okeechobee County of increasingly instability with surface based CAPE from 2500-4000J/kG and lifted index of –4 to –7. This would quantify the air mass ahead of this line of showers as very unstable.

 

There is also two spots of strong low –level lapse rates toward Southern Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie Counties. Steering winds this afternoon are toward the NNE, and low level helicity is increasing along I-95 toward the Indian River corridor as Southerly winds blow northward and up the intracoastals.

 

There is becoming a small threat for waterspouts with activity later this afternoon along these waterways, should the activity manage to hold together upon reaching the  pseudo sea breeze/synoptic scale gradient flow and be forced on through it. It is too hard to determine if that will be the case today. Just keep your eyes pealed primarily for some possible lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 35-40mph in one or two strong storms, especially if it is on the approach after 4:00pm today. We can see in the image the NONSUPTOR values.

 

nonsuptor  = non supercell tornado. This is not to mean that it is even remotely close that mariners should watch for waterspouts today. There has not been any official notification through the National Weather Service concerning that prospect, but it does seem to be becoming that there is the chance considering how these values have been increasing the past two hours.

Hoping Atlantis Can Hold Off Launch Until Sunday

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE AT 10:00AM EDT. Clouds persist near the Launch Pad. Any breaks for sunlight this late in the morning will refill with clouds due to high atmospheric moisture content.  ORANGE: Thunder storm is possible, but not solely (most likely). Most likely near the Gulf Coast but a secondary area near Orlando is emerging past 2 hours now that the sun has risen  GREEN: Where it could sprinkle, shower, or pour rain today YELLOW LINE: Most activity North of the Line will for the most part be earlier, then much later as well  SOUTH of the Yellow Line: Activity will begin shortly toward noon and last through 6-7pm in various locations as things develop and move. See comments for Special Notes.

THE SCOOP: As can be seen below, strong TUTT low in Northern Gulf persists and is currently beginning to fade off to the WSW with time through tomorrow. Thus, today is a transition day of sorts. Weak inverted trough and tropical area of Interest (Invest) will unlikely develop into anything beyond its current state. But never say never. It appears it will be absorbed within its own inverted trough which extends toward the Big Bend at this time during the day. The area south of the yellow line in the image above has less cloud coverage since day break and is therefore most likely to become unstable heading toward noon, more ripe for a stronger rain-shower or thunderstorm. Blue arrows show the surface winds in general and the general storm motion as noted in the image. Storms / showers might have a hard time crossing to A1A in Central to North Brevard due to stronger surface winds up the intracoastal. However, winds aloft, even at lower levels, are pretty strong today and might be able to overcome the sea-breeze/combined gradient surface flow for activity to reach A1A after 3-5pm.

IN THIS IMAGE: Upper level TUTT (Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric Trough) like low has moved little since yesterday but is drifting a bit westward. Meanwhile Showers and some thunder continue along the immediate Gulf Coast as we can see in this recent radar overlay with the upper level winds. We see in the purple over Central Florida that there is divergence aloft as noted by the purple circular blob that was sketched in by the computer analysis tool automatically. I've sketched in orange where thunder could occur due to this divergence aloft, longer daytime heating in this area, and as noted with the red-dashed line, perhaps an outflow boundary to form as the storms near the Gulf Coast collapse and send a boundary out to the east. It is uncertain if anything behind some spotty rain showers can form over far SE Florida today. Very little is working in their favor, at least until nearly dark. Original image courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center's website.

TODAY: We all want Atlantis to launch in perfect order; however, for the supposed near ONE MILLION viewers in the area, it would be very disappointing. Cloud coverage comes and goes, and any brief window to form which would allow launch would be a mere peep hole, with a verybrief actual 'viewing time'. It's possible that showers in the area any way might preclude launch altogether anyway. No sayin' what will be the decision until we're down to the dirty. If delayed, it will be for 48 hours. Much better! Sunday morning looks to be altogether a better situation for innumerable reasons, although it would be inconvenient for the traveler.


Otherwise, mostly showers today, some heavy. Could be an isolated few thunderstorms in North Florida, perhaps  one or two in Central and/or North Central. The biggest impacts from activity today would be over Central Florida, perhaps if only in a heavy rain shower. This would be from downdraft winds that would translate the forecast 25-35mph winds not far above the ground to the ground. Thus, wind gusts could be 38mph in strong downdrafts of a thunderstorm, or around 25-30mph in a heavy rain-shower. Most activity should abate not long after dark as cloud cover will be vast and energy is sapped. SE Florida toward Dade/Broward/and South Palm Beach County could be in for an evening surprise, but so far it's almost a stretch to believe so. I've omitted an area NW of Lake Okeechobee that bears watching as well.


SATURDAY: Looks more like a mid-afternoon to early-mid Evening rain-shower and thunderstorm set up favoring the interior and toward the east coast with time. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm more with less cloud coverage during the earlier part of the day. Overall, storm type will be similar in all regions and possibly of greater coverage than today.


SUNDAY-MONDAY: Somewhat of a variable of Saturday, but with less activity.


BEYOND: There is still a frontal boundary well to the north of the state that is forecast to sink toward Southern Georgia AT LEAST by mid-late week. This will increase thunderstorm chances as opposed to predominant rain showers, but it's not a given. This would fit the bill though given the synoptic set up (all encompassing), as the moisture source will be partially modified by continental air aloft (and thus a little cooler and more unstable) rather than fully tropical in nature as it has been the past 2-3 days.


CONTINUED STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK: Likely following a 2-3 day cycle, favoring different parts of the state in each cycle. No tropical entities worth mention outside of watching the area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico well west of Key West.

Late Afternoon Throuh Mid-Evening Rainstorm Chances Might Increase For Immediate East Coast Late Today

It is still possible that beach side residents from Broward County to extreme Southern Volusia could experience additional rainfall (or for others, their first rainfall), later today between 4-10pm ( with the latest activity further north).

 

Latest 'actuals'  matched with latest short term model runs indicate a trend for storm steering wind directions to gradually veer to more from the  SSW late this afternoon and tonight. In this regard, given that there are many locations that have not received rain, coupled with remnant boundaries around the state from recent or upcoming convection this afternoon to act as a triggering mechanism -  newer activity through 5-6pm could be steered toward the A1A Corridor from Ft Pierce to Oak Hill or Daytona Beach Shores. Significant Lightning is not expected during this period, if it transpires, late today, of any consequence.

 

Coincidentally, it just rained here as I typed that last sentence for the first time.

Some "Locally" Heavy Rain Possible Today, Will Atlantis Soar Over the Atlantic Tomorrow?

Sunset Wednesday Night, Cape Canaveral
View Is Looking East as the sun's rays capture the top of this very tall, tropical like rain storm off shore

UPPER LEVEL LOW in Gulf. Arrows show the general direction
of cirrus cloud spread  from storm tops. Black area shows where there is less cloud coverage and more unstable air as of  11AM

SYNOPSIS / "SITUATION" TODAY: Not a whole lot has actually changed from yesterday, outside of some subtle, yet profound differences. Namely, the atmosphere over all of the state is more moist, rather than limited to the southern portion of the state as was the case yesterday. The other item of interest is an elongated inverted trough just off the east coast. This is related to a weak closed circulation which was pointed out yesterday near the western Bahamas. The circulation lifted north to barely just east of the Cape early this morning and is continuing a bit east of due north. Otherwise, the strong upper level low remains over the Gulf of Mexico, and is clearing evident on satellite animation with time ('movies') as shown in the image above.


TODAY'S WEATHER: After  hemming and hawing over model differences regarding exactly where it will rain today, I'm opting out on leaning toward ANY model. Instead, riding with experience. There is clearly no  lack of moisture anywhere today (more in some places in others, but not by much); however, there are some differences in the mid-levels  heading into North Central Florida and toward the Panhandle where rain chances are reduced. 


Otherwise, ongoing convection over far South Florida is leading me to believe that Dade and parts of Broward County might be having most of their rainfall as I write. After looking at the KSC sounding, it was determined that the convective temperature was 83F. Easily to be reached, and in fact, that is what the temperature is now. For all I know, a storm is brewing as I write!  


However, there is some cloud coverage to deal with. Winds are very light today at all levels below 20,000 ft. With both conditions in place combined with the bizarre placement of low and high pressure systems, a sea breeze collision is highly unlikely any where. Additionally, any sea breeze that can form will be so light and remain close enough to the coast that it will have very little bearing  in regard to storm initiation. Likely, storms will form from boundaries that were left over from yesterday in the most favored area today, which is over land.  And near where Land/water boundaries are located such as west of the intracoastals and near inland lakes. 


All convection over night sticks to the warm waters, and during the day it sticks to the land  (and well off shore).   So based only on the past, the biggest impact will be very heavy rains in localized areas due to the mass quantity of atmospheric moisture available and slow storm motions. Other storms could start to trigger off from outflow boundaries by earlier storms, with the peak of activity from 12:30pm - 4:30pm. 

IN BLACK is shown where I'm thinking the best chance for a thunderstorm COULD occur today, that will produce more than just 2-5 lightning strikes.  Otherwise, ANY shower could produce even just 1 lightning strike. Most activity today will be primarily heavy rain, but there could be just a few good lightning makers state wide. Most likely within the area in black west of US1.

One other item I'm watching for  today. It may very well be that those who live along the immediate barrier islands or anywhere along A1A north of Vero Beach toward South Brevard might never seen any heavy rain at all today. Reasoning? With such light steering winds, storms will want to hold on to the land mass. 


Thus, the folks closer to US1 are more likely to get heavier rains (at least for any duration) than those at the beach...with the heaviest amounts west of US1 toward I-95 and further inland.  Rainfall totals could be as high as 3" in one or two locations, and as low as ZERO in others.  Most rains over land should end shortly after sunset, if not sooner after loss of daytime heating, coupled with the atmosphere having been stabilized from the heavy rains and cloud cover. 


There is a chance some rains could occur over night though in just the reverse pattern, that being, lighter rain showers near the coasts at almost any time.


LAUNCH DAY: Hey, maybe the launch could go if tomorrow is anything like today. There is little in storms around other than South Brevard as I write (and JUST found out. How's that for reaching the convective temperature as noted in the previous paragraph?; however, there is considerable high and mid level cloud coverage. If that factor will prevent a launch, then it would be a "No Go". I'm not completely learned, nor could I locate, the exact  'cloud ceiling' criteria to prevent a launch, although I thought I had read it can be as low as 3000 ft (do not fully trust the source).  Do not believe "Cumulus Clouds" will be a factor if tomorrow is like today. But never say never. In short, the 70% chance of a "No Go" as I've learned this morning sounds as good as any.





BEYOND/TROPICAL: The Hurricane Center is watching an area between South Florida and Honduras. The area is given a 10 percent chance of development, but at this time the chances look slim considering that longer range models indicate persist shearing further north from  the upper level winds (which are unfavorable). Remember the first image above showing the closed upper level low which is expected to meander for several days.  But given time, should the system stay south for who knows how long, it could develop. And if it does so, then who knows which way it would go considering that other factors within the atmosphere (namely wind fields) would have changed by that time. As it stands NOW though, it will not develop.

In the extended to cut to the chase. Latest Long Range is showing continued plentiful moisture in place more often than not heading toward the last week of July, around the 21st. Not everyday, everywhere, in the same places. Naturally, wind fields and other variables will change (as they are even just today let alone 3 days from now or longer in time). In other words, not seeing a return to drought conditions any time soon. Maybe one day it will actually rain more trace where this writer lives. Not sure why I even have a rain gauge. 

Chance Of On-Schedule Shuttle Launch Bleak, Umbrella Stands to Flourish

Inverted trough with weak, not quite closed low circulation over the Bahamas. Tropical wave extends NNE-NE from near Honduras.  Persistent upper level low over North Central Gulf to gradually drift WNW through Saturday. Circulation around the base of this low provides abundant upper level cloud coverage, persistent. Any low to form appears will take a journey toward coastal North Carolina while a combined Florida Spine of the State trough merges with moisture from decayed tropical wave./inverted trough Thursday - Sunday over Florida. Net effect is rain and some thunderstorms, primarily Friday and Saturday (and beyond......)

SYNOPSIS AND WHAT'S "ON TAP": For one, it's not beer. It's water aplenty in the atmosphere. The word of the next 7-10 days is PWAT...Precipitable Water Values. Values ranging from 1.75 - 2.30" is on the 'normal wet season level to high end tropical like".  Tropical wave/ inverted trough will enter Southeast Florida beginning tonight. High precipitable water values of 2.00" are already over some of South Florida, but of this attributed to moisture in the upper levels. Rainshowers are already around much of the keys and far SE Florida. Believe most of this activity will remain over South Florida today and enter portions of South Central later in the day. Umbrellas, goggles, and snorkels required to breath outside by Friday over much of the state, wet suits - optional.


DAY'S AHEAD: There is a near stationary front near the mid-Atlantic Region as well as a trough axis running south down the lee of the Appalachian Chain. This trough could extend into North Florida later today and be the impetus for thunderstorms over North Florida near I-10 toward Gainesville.  This front is expected, as noted two posts ago, to sink south into the weekend toward North Central Georgia. As the tropical wave is lifted north and low level ridge axis  builds in behind it across South Florida, providing for a SSW-SW Florida at the low levels through at least Saturday.  Beyond that point in time, the front may sink further south later in the week toward next weekend as the ridge axis lifts toward Central Florida. This would favor the I-4 Corridor and south toward North Brevard County for afternoon thunderstorms while South Florida dries out with isolated diurnally driven convection possible far removed from the frontal boundary and deeper moisture. A portion of yet another tropical wave now far away could possibly provide more moisture for South Florida heading toward NEXT weekend.


TODAY: Upper level low remains over the Gulf of Mexico, providing for SW flow way up there in the atmosphere around 25,000 Ft. Cloud tops of showers and storms in the SW Gulf combined with diffluence aloft in the Eastern Gulf periodically results in enhanced period of Cirrus Clouds over much of the state.  Deepest moisture should be able to reach as far north as Martin County/Indian River County line  by sunset tonight, continuing to progress northward over night and approaching the Beach Line to Orlando to Tampa line near sunrise Thursday.


Rain showers and thunderstorms (mostly rain showers except as noted below) will cover much of South Florida by mid-afternoon. Believe extensive cloud coverage from there on out will leave the area cloud covered with dwindling light rain late this afternoon due to early onset of convective showers and thunder.  Other showers might be able to make it onshore the SE Coast, emanating from the SW Bahamas. Outflows and continued most unstable atmospheric feed from the Gulf could continue some thunder chances near the SW Florida Coast. Meanwhile, outflows could also spread moisture northward, resulting in a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm in interior portions of Okeechobee or far Southern Osceola County toward Indian River County (although not sketched in).

Green line shows in general the northern extent of rain chances up through 7pm. Showers/Storms over North Florida not associated with the weather occurring over South Florida today. Elsewhere, high clouds, and some cumulus mainly inland. Some spotty showers could form in other locations, but would be of such isolated nature I didn't bother trying to sketch those in.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY: Over night, showers could regenerate near either coast of SE/SW Florida and work northward to the Cape area at sunrise. Thursday appears could hold promise for higher rainfall totals as far north as the aforementioned "magic dividing line" primarily near the coast from eventually Daytona Beach south to Miami and along the SW Florida region.


FRIDAY:  Pattern Change / New Wardrobe Day: Whatever is left of the 'wave' over Florida will have pretty much washed out, but in its wake will be high levels of PWAT air from top to bottom. Expect that such levels of moisture in the atmosphere will hold residual cloudiness over the state Friday and all day for the moist (most) part. Some models are actually showing it to be raining at the Launch Pads prior to launch and throughout the launch window. Regardless, there will be lots of clouds around either way. So, if it were to launch, it will be brief to actually witness.


LAUNCH: As noted over a week ago, it still remains 'yet to be seen' for a launch. And if it does launch, good luck seeing it beyond 20 seconds. Rainfall Thursday will likely leave remnant cloud coverage, extensively so. Given the PWAT values (over 2.00") and forecast temperatures reaching in the mid 80Fs (at lease), combined with very low Lifting Condensation Levels, Lifting Condensation Levels, and convective temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs..convective type clouds can form with the first hints of day break. This should be the case  Friday and Saturday.
Beyond Saturday, convection should begin more  toward noon. That, combined with an earlier launch time would make launch more probable on Sunday..if it hasn't gone already. But debris clouds will remain to hamper a respectable, videographic view other than from right on the Center Proper from a Press Stand. The better chances for tourists and locals from far and near to actually get their money's worth (up to $3000.00 I hear, dang greedy scalpers) will begin on Tuesday or Wednesday as we enter a more solid diurnally driven convective regime and as higher PWAT, flippers-n-snorkel air shifts to just north of the Cape area.

SATURDAY: More residual cloudiness to start, with thunderstorms and  rain showers beginning late morning through late night. There actually could be showers somewhere over the state at any time between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, but of greatest coverage and strength from noon time through 6pm. 


SUNDAY:  Might be the first better chances for a launch, but personally, would like to have them wait until Tuesday or Wednesday as the deepest moisture by then has cleared South Florida and will be near and NORTH of the Magic Dividing line of the state (Dead Central, East to West), to nearly clear of the Space Coast.


NEXT WEEK: As noted yesterday, next week's weather appears will be dictated by a low level ridge axis running somewhere across South Central to Dead Central Florida. This will favor the I-4 Corridor toward just north of the Beachline east of Orlando for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with continued High PWAT Air in place. Additionally, the surface frontal boundary will be located over North Central Georgia, possibly sinking toward South Georgia during the week toward next weekend.  Latest guidance indicates a pronounced drier period for South Central and South Florida, although likely not as dry as indicated. Sometime near the end of next weekend, the ridge axis should sink further south toward far South Florida, when once again this area will be in for more diurnally driven thunderstorms, widespread and more lightning prolific.


NATURE OF ACTIVITY: Believe most of the activity will manifest as mostly heavy rainstorms with some lightning, although there could be some isolated but brief lightning makers. Expect that the heavier rainstorms will manifest AFTER the wave has cleared the area and the ridge axis across North Central Florida relocates in its wake across far South Florida on Friday and Saturday, with activity decreasing along the east coast from South to North heading toward Tuesday, but with thunderstorms continuing toward far North Brevard to JAX and the Panhandle region for many days to come after Friday or Saturday. Severe weather is not expected due to the warm, tropical like temperatures aloft; some fairly steep (unstable) low level lapse rates will create the most prolific lightning making storms earlier in the day.


RAINFALL: Appears the overall heaviest rainfall totals, when all is said and done through Saturday evening will be over Far Southwest Florida and along the east coast from Martin County to St. Augustine, and possible a portion of the Panhandle Region. But most anywhere (with exceptions of course..probably where I live where it will barely rain at all)..can expect between 0.75" -2.-00" of rainfall, with isolated amounts possibly over 3.00". There is also the possibility that a location or  two will get 'zeroed in' on..and get over 6.00" by the end of Saturday or Sunday. Someone will win the 'rainfall jackpot'...TBD.