Breezy Today, Showers *Thunder? Possible Mid-Late Afternoon

GFS Forecast for 4pm EST today, showing approximate hand-plotted front positions
Note the dark shades of blue and wind barbs , 20-25 kts of wind equates to winds today in the gusty range toward  25-29mph. Possibly higher near approaching and in any showers or thunder

TODAY: A cold front is entering the Florida Panhandle well before sunrise and will continue through the state, exiting the southern extent in the early-mid evening hours. As of latest guidance and actual radar/satellite trends, it appears that the main wind energy will be restricted to the north half of the state, whereas any thermal instability (also required for respectable storms) will remain over the south half of the state.  In that regards, they do not combine (or overlap) into a 'neat little package' for assured storm generation.


This wind energy even so will be unidirectional throughout the layers of the atmosphere  (from the same direction as opposed to veering with height) which does not bode for rotating storms. Additionally, due to the unidirectional (from the same general direction) wind profiles as one goes higher up in the atmosphere from ground level, there will be little 'forcing' or converging of winds at the lower levels required for forced upward motion into higher levels of the atmosphere (squeezing). Without forcing, thunderstorms might be hard to come by. Also of note, the 500mb vorticity (wind energy) field indicates near NEGATIVE vorticity, which actually plays against storm formation.


With this line of 'reasoning', I'd expect that thunderstorms will be few and far between, limited mainly toward the Tampa Area (not shown)..with perhaps some rumbles within the area of green shown in the above image. 


Increased cloudiness by early afternoon ahead of and along the front will work down the state. Additionally, due to the stronger wind aloft (and cold air), those winds could translate to the surface resulting in breezy conditions today. Highs will be unusual, with near 80F + from South Central to South Florida where cloud coverage will be later to arrive (during peak heating). Dead Central could approach 80F though, especially along the east half of Central.  Increasing clouds and a period roughly from between 2pm - 5pm of light fast moving showers or even some rumbles is possible, extending about as far south as the north shores of Lake Okeechobee toward late afternoon or early evening, all contingent upon the forward motion (timing) of the boundary itself. It is possible that daytime heating will slow down the motion of the boundary, in which case we can tack on up to 2 hours of the shower timing. Given the current upper level trough (system) to the north of the state though, this does not to be a likely or significantly problematic concern.


Do note,  however, that as of this hour the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, Oklahoma has a 'slight risk for severe' as well as a 'see text' in place for the area in green as well. "See Text" essentially is reserved for 'we are watching this area for stronger storms not meeting severe criteria'. Those areas, as it appears, are highly conditional upon formation of storms in the first place. Best chance for thunder might very well be over the Gulf Stream waters and also moving in off the Gulf as far south as Sarasota, but whether any can hold together across interior is the big TBD. 


Any band of showers / the front as it may be, will continue southward into early evening with clearing skies to some degree before dark (Central)..but not entirely so until mid-late evening. Not all areas will see rain today, in fact, most might not.


Temperatures will not fall dramatically behind the boundary (Central/South) as winds become westerly then WNW into the evening, and not really be an issue until after midnight. Lows by Monday morning close to the low-mid 50Fs immediate east coast from the Cape and South..to South Florida, with upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs interior and north with a breezy NW component to the wind early on.


LATER MONDAY: Winds become lighter by late morning through afternoon and veer from NNW-NE-E (by dark)...with near clear skies with highs close to the upper 60Fs right at the beaches (Central), but a bit warmer inland away from the very cool ocean water. Highs over South Florida into the lower 70Fs (at least) most areas. Some clouds might very well work into the east coast and inland by early-mid afternoon as winds turn more easterly.


TUESDAY: Southeast winds and warmer still through Wednesday or Thursday before another front approaches. This front too as it appears will have little impact (if not less) than today's. Another front is then again forecast beyond that time toward next weekend..impact hard to determine at this point (if any).    

Considerable Cloudiness Today, Possible Showers Central Later

Morning satellite image indicates clouds at various atmospheric levels passing from west to east when animated. There are some patches of light rain within the clouds, mostly north of I-4 and heavier activity well west into the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this activity could impact Central Florida later today in mid-evening as the surface cold front looses identity and sinks south toward at least Southern Brevard, although it is possible it will not get quite that far south. Heaviest activity (if any) should be restricted to Central proper especially after 2-3pm.

TODAY: Very little change in reasoning from yesterday's post first and foremost. Frontal boundary across far north Florida is being elongated from east to west as the parent low pressure area moves off well to the north near Nova Scotia, with little 'forcing' along the boundary way south of that low in Florida.  The frontal boundary will sink into Central Florida later today.The exact location should not hold much weight either way as far as how its southern extent penetrates, although showers are most likely where-ever it tends to halt any further southward progression. For the most part, there has been little change in reasoning with the GFS model continuing to take the boundary as far south as Southern Brevard if not a bit further after sunset tonight. With that, it would not be unreasonable to expect that some rain could fall across Central Florida from mid-afternoon through late evening, especially Central heading toward early evening. Some thunder is 'possible' but doubtful.

Light green shows area for best rain chance. Note that the front extends in this depiction from low pressure near Nova Scotia with a new low forming along the tail end along the Texas Gulf Coast. It is that low pressure and the attendant cold front that could make for more active weather on Sunday

SATURDAY: The new area of low pressure moves toward North Georgia with breezier conditions materializing by mid-afternoon. It appears clouds will still be present with sufficient moisture, but no rain due to no triggering mechanisms, other than perhaps a few light sprinkles. Winds begin to increase over night as the front draws closer. The front across Florida lifts north and becomes a warm front well north of the state.


SUNDAY: Cold front now crossing the state. Winds from the SW at 20mph at least, clouds, and some showers and possible thunderstorms (potentially close to severe due to strong winds) will move through from early day through sunset, crossing Central Florida during the mid-afternoon toward late day. It is during that passage the better chance for stronger storms is possible. It will not be an all out rainy day by any means as noted yesterday due to the rather fast forward motion of the system. I've drawn in a quick and dirty version of where there is a potential (for purposes only of this unofficial blog) of where the stronger activity could occur (this is not a given, for awareness purposes only).

Orange, possible thunder ; Red, possible stronger / severe storms due to wind , fast moving 

LATE SUNDAY: The front and associated rainfall potential will have cleared Central Florida before sunset and will have cleared the state by mid-late evening on Sunday. Winds then become NW and filter in cooler/colder , drier air.


MONDAY: NNW-N winds as morning works into early afternoon, becoming NNE-NE by early evening. Morning lows at the coast 46-52F and colder inland and north. The entire state will be effected by this cold 'shot', but as noted previously..this one will not be for long. In fact, by Tuesday morning the temperature at the beaches could be warmer than they will be at  10pm the previous evening (Sunday Night) from Cape Canaveral and south.


BEYOND: Not significant weather of note heading through mid-week. 

Rain, Storms (Strong/Severe) Possible Friday & Sunday Florida

NOW: Frontal boundary sliding into the Panhandle Resulting in Greater Cloud Coverage in North Florida North of the I-4.
Later today, East Coast sea breeze with increased atmospheric moisture could result in some sprinkles or a shower due to sea breeze convergence away from the coast, inland. Colder ocean temperatures should essentially 'cut off' or preclude any shower activity closer to the coast due to loss of rising air currents above and near the cool ocean and river waters

TODAY: Two cold front boundaries will be playing havoc with the Florida Peninsula weather forecasts through Sunday beginning today. Although today does not appear 'sticky' regarding significant weather (especially South of the Beach Line), the main factor within this same area (North Half of State) looks to be the variability of cloud coverage with a better rain chance north of I-4. As noted in the caption , sea breeze convergence or simply a sea breeze and weak inland winds could result in weak convergence (surface to mid-levels) resulting in some sprinkles which looks only minimally possible if at all namely due to the cool waters and the cool air just above them cutting off the lifting currents normally present in the summer months when waters are much warmer. 


FRIDAY: The cold front will get an extra boost southward after wafting toward the east, with the main energy being pulled well north and east of the state. Regardless, the front should be entering North Central (Ocala / Gainesville) area during the noon time hours and finally reaching Central Beach Line Corridor toward Tampa by late afternoon during and after peak heating hours. Wind fields do not look overly impressive; albeit, if this was the summer with the same wind fields this would be a day to watch for very strong thunderstorms no-doubt. Regardless, given the wind fields and ample instability, there could easily be a thunderstorm chance with good winds in them from northern parts of South Central and Northward. As we can see here:

NOTE the winds are shown at the surface to be only around 10 knots, but convergence along the frontal boundary will work in favor of storms along it and south. This is the GFS depiction from the morning model run (7AM), valid for 1pm Friday. This front is expected to make it about as far as Ft. Pierce toward Sarasota before lifting back northward as a warm front overnight Friday night into Saturday.  Therefore, it would be wise to be prepared for rain when heading out across Dead Central beyond the 2pm time frame through at least mid-evening. The front appears will stall out across a portion of Central before lifting back north. During the time, rain chances will remain.

SATURDAY: More interesting chain-of-events unfolds. First time in months since we've seen a scenario such as this. In fact, outside of the tropically related entities of fall, it was possibly last April or May that such a boundary could generate severe weather in a broad scale, or have that inkling, over a part of Florida. Thus, this will be a day to keep the ears and eyes pealed for statements and newscasts.


The cold front of old will lift northward as a warm front (as shown below), with an attendant low pressure system pulling eastward north of the state. A new cold front will be entering the picture with much stronger wind fields associated  at ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.


Given directional wind shear in a clockwise fashion from the ground and up toward 30,000 ft (climbing upward through the veering wind fields with height), there will be a best chance for severe storms and possibly a tornado from near St. Augustine as far south as Ormond Beach (at least) and west across the state. This entire scenario is still 'in the making' as far as being depicted on paper is concerned, so most assuredly this portion of the post will need further refinement in the next 36-48 hours as time allows. Here is the morning depiction for 7AM Sunday morning.

SUNDAY:

NOTE the stronger wind fields even at the ground (as shown) as opposed to Friday. Blues show winds in the 25 kts range over water, as opposed to 10 kts on Friday. No joke, winds aloft are much stronger
on Sunday than they will be on Friday as well.

Also note the text in red showing that the old cold front has lifted well to the north as the next low pressure (much stronger this time) moves across the Deep South. Undoubtedly, our friends on The Weather Channel will be milking this one for whatever it will be worth in the severe weather mode realm across Dixie and into the Carolina's at least, as well as parts of North Florida from early Saturday through Sunday. Especially over portion of Alabama and Mississippi!!


Since it is yet early for finer details, it is worth watching for a fast moving squall line type feature to race across most of the peninsula from mid-morning through late afternoon. Precipitation totals are not shown to be high, but bear in mind it will be fast moving which correlates to little time for rainfall totals to add up. Meaning, not much rain does not directly mean some stronger winds will not be briefly possible.


Regardless, that does not mean, nor should we assume, that strong winds (at least) will not be possible, especially North of Lake Okeechobee mainly, not to play any 'favors' just yet in regard to who might escape the rains. As seen today at this point from scanning over a few resouces, most everyone could get a quick dose of rain and wind on Sunday from before sunrise (far north) to the keys by late afternoon/early evening.


BEYOND: It will be much cooler Monday morning behind the front, but not as cold as this prior event. Winds are expected to clock around toward the NE to east within 36-48 hours after frontal passage which means already any cold air supply will be tainted by Atlantic winds. Additionally, the jet stream will be north of the entire state. That is important to Florida since the coldest temperature at ground level in most cases is found under and north of it's flow and ebb around the hemispheres.

Be Fore-warned Florida...It's Gonna Be Cold in These Thar Hills

Coldest Full Day (or nearly so) of Winter for Florida is in the Making, but first comes some rain

A different flavor of post today, no maps required. The writing has been on the walls for nearly two weeks now (I have been watching behind the scenes), that a change was in the making as noted in the previous two posts. It now appears that all will come to fruition. Earlier posts were not definitive since it is not particularly beneficial most of the time to put the cart before the horse (the boy who cried wolf syndrome as weather folks are so famous for). I suppose it is time to cry , "Man Your Battle Stations!...Cold air is on the way."  And it looks like a doozy. But all is not as bad as it may seem. Meaning, this does not appear to be a long spell of it. However, even more changes are a brewin', at least in regard to implications made by the weather models. Again, though, this seemed to be also in the making. With this in mind....


TODAY: A cold front is in development and to cross the state through the day and into the evening and overnight. Ahead of the front, clouds will persist for the most part as winds begin to shift from southeast to south and eventually Southwest. There is a chance of thunder after 2-7pm considering : (1) the respectable amount of bulk wind shear throughout all atmospheric levels in what is referred to as the boundary layer  and (2) atmospheric instability (which is not all so impressive to say the least) does exist today as opposed to previous frontal passages.


Prior to that time and during it as well, some lighter rain may fall, particularly over the southern 1/3 of the state initially. As the front approaches toward mid-afternoon rain chances and possible thunder from near Canaveral and South, where as other showers and maybe thunder further north along this developing two-tonged system moves through could occur, although thunder along the front itself appears less likely. Without going into meteorological specifics, there is agreement in models to a respectable degree...and the National Weather Service has taken a bite as well along this line of thinking. 


SATURDAY: The overall system which is much larger than what is impacting Florida will be moving east of the state as NW winds filter in during the day after the frontal passage which appears will occur shortly before mid-evening through post midnight across the peninsula. Thus, on Saturday..the air will begin to dry out from the dank and damp conditions of recent days (in the evenings)...and with drier air comes colder air, since dry air holds less heat over the night time hours. The second phase of this system will clear all of the northern 2/3 of the state by mid-Saturday evening as temperatures fall into the 40Fs and the air outside continues to dry.


SUNDAY: Potentially the coldest day of the winter 2011-2012 season from sunrise to set. Highs possibly never to clear the upper 40Fs (but see further down too) most areas at and north of Lake Okeechobee. Morning lows toward freezing from I-4 and north, if not even further south than there. Coastal east coast lows in the upper 30Fs toward low 40Fs. The difference in this cold spell as opposed to the previous will not be so much the morning low, but rather the lack of warmth Sunday afternoon with continued winds to abate not enough for uncomfortable wind chills until Monday early.


This image is a forecast from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model showing in blue 30F's if not colder toward far Florida. The green tones are noted first with the 40F print. One can take it from there. Afternoon highs to make it into the low 50Fs central toward South Central and warmer yet further south based on this run, but we will need to watch those numbers. Could be yet colder than shown here.

  


MONDAY: With the worst over, and winds becoming more easterly..the immediate beaches from Canaveral South will likely be in the mid-upper 40Fs, with continued cold (but not freezing) elsewhere on more morning...Monday will be a few or more degrees warmer all locales, but still chilly by comparison to days like those of yesterday and today.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Continued warming toward the 70Fs with a rapid warm up over nights as well. This is not the end of the saga however as alluded to in the opening paragraph. Although very cold air is not yet depicted, the chances for rainfall and possible storms remains to be  an emerging possibility once again. As usual and  would expect from a blog named "High Speed Dirt", the watch for active severe weather will need to be considered heading into the later parts of February for somewhere in the state.

Stream of Weather Consciousness = Changes

The weather here on the earth's surface has many dimensions. The winds, the sun, and gravity dictate much  of what we experience coupled with the rotation, sun angle relative to the earths orbit, and pre-existing conditions of the past all add up to the present experience. Like our lives, the sum total of our past experiences and all those encompass manifest as the Now. Such as is the case with today's weather on February 4th all around the globe. The stream bed, the twigs, the rocks, the blocks where twigs and branches get stuck, and various depths of the waters combined dictate the birth of what will finally emerge as we see and experience it at any point in time anywhere , anyplace,....... as weather.

TODAY-MONDAY: High pressure is moving east of the state of Florida as well as to the north just a bit will drop  south in the next 48 hours as a cold front approaches. As such, winds will become easterly to southeasterly toward south into Sunday late...which will also result in an increase in atmospheric moisture. Although there will be little change in temperatures, with daytime highs coolest along the east coast due to the cool ocean waters this time of year..a chance of rain will formulate with this increase in moisture especially on Sunday afternoon through at least early Monday. At time, not expecting thunder due to the indication that upper level winds and thermal dynamics (thermodynamics) will not be sufficient to generate more volatile type weather.   Thus, showers are quite possible for much of the state, especially east central to south Florida on Sunday afternoon toward at least mid-morning Monday with partly cloudy to sometime cloudy skies possible. Otherwise, very un-winter like all things considered.


BEYOND MONDAY: The front appears will slip slowly south and then east of the state heading through Tuesday and beyond with little overall changes indicated beyond that of which has been the current state of affairs. However, there are hints of changes awaiting on the wings of uncertainty...as noted in the previous dialog a while back...there are signals..that a chain reaction of events could harbor a change...potentially a bit volatile in nature..


LATER NEXT WEEK: Beyond this front to pass through in some sort of oblique fashion early week...the GFS long range assumption has been progressively and continuously pumping out a picture indicating that low pressure systems could form close to if not in the Gulf of Mexico. Such systems bring more dynamic wind fields, instability, and low level 'boundaries' resulting in storms and rain. Although no cold air beyond the norm is shown, it does show that rain will much more likely occur toward later next week ..thunder possible. Even this will have to be watched, especially Central and South Florida for a mini-severe weather chance heading toward the Ninth of February...but no guarantees.


BEYOND THEN: More of the change continues. Like a domino affect, the effect around the Northern Hemisphere occurs in all places, coupled with waves of change in the Southern Hemisphere...a chance of a severe weather outbreak could occur toward mid-February somewhere in the Deep South toward Florida. At this time, it is too far out in the great beyond to get down to specifics as to when and where or even If...but the overall indicators point for this 'new change' of changes to potentially remain in place. The low down and dirty is, we have had benign weather for a while..the bump is appearing to no longer remain on the log.

Heads Up Florida! Chance of Storms, Possibly Severe on Friday

Frontal boundary is clearly evident crossing into the Florida Panhandle this mid-afternoon
Thursday per this image. The Front will be slowing down tonight, with a secondary shove to the southeast beginning pre-dawn Friday and reaching near south Florida toward sunset Friday.

TODAY: Breezy SE winds over much of the peninsula except closer to the frontal boundary which is on the approach from the WNW-NW. The front can be seen in the above satellite  image extending well south into Gulf of Mexico northward toward Crestview and Geneva. Conditions   over the peninsula will remain overnight warmer than usual  due to winds remaining elevated and some cloud cover enhanced by increasing   atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) throughout the atmospheric layers. Lows tonight likely to remain in the 60Fs closer toward 70F South Florida.


Winds also becoming S-SW overnight with a SW and slightly breezy sunrise speed in the 10-18mph range. Increasing clouds as showers and possible storms move into the Big Bend to JAX areas in the pre-dawn toward early morning post-sunrise time frame. 


FRIDAY: The front will be slowing down toward later today and tonight as its upper level supporting low pressure complex lifts more toward the NE, stretching out the boundary and slowing its eastward progress.


Upper level jet stream winds will maintain strongest, primarily across only the far North Portion of the state; yet, a secondary jet streak will develop across Central Florida  as the upper trough begins to lift ENE-NE tonight. The region very close to Dead Central Florida per latest GFS and NAM forecast models indicates that the area drawn in red will be under the exiting left region of this jet streak. Additionally, due to the timing of this system as laid out in model guidance (The NAM and GFS have finally come to a timing agreement in the 18z runs! ..for the first time since showing the system's approach)..Dead Central may have a more primed environmental, conditional impact for strong storms since this boundary will be approach that area of the state during peak heating of the day, although any destabilizing heat will be likely offset by high cloud coverage to some degree.

Light blue frontal position estimate at 10AM Friday morning. The orange and red are also first wags and storm threats (orange, general thunder with stronger wind gust and RED: tiny severe weather threat).

Concerning the upper level winds: Winds  will be largely uni-directional with height, but not entirely by any means. Additionally, any stalling could tend toward greater directional shear depending on how far northward the upper level trough lifts out. Regardless, speed shear and bulk shear both could provide the impetus  for showers and storms to create wind gusts or straight line winds in the 35-50mph, with a gust or so approaching severe category, namely at or above 58 mph. As of this time, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman Oklahoma is watching this system for Florida impacts as I write this post. At time, the peninsula is being out-looked under a "See Text" banner, with hardly a reference to bona-fide severe weather threat, YET. They are watching  for a better signal to sound the horn.


 In that regard, and based on what I personally am seeing in the model and for purposes of this unofficial information, have included a "severe chance" in between the areas in RED in the first graphic above.


Thunderstorm chances will occur between sunrise (Far NW) to Central working south and east from mid-morning through early afternoon as the particular set up for storms works further south. By mid afternoon, the upper level supporting winds for stronger storms will be pulling out, so expecting that there will little left but a line of showers with some thunder south of the orange most southern line in the above image.


BEYOND: No so bad  in the temperatures as feared previously. Overnight lows will indicate little change Saturday and Sunday from recent days, but cooler afternoon highs a possibility. Although, given what this winter has been like so far, no special preparations with lows in the upper 50Fs to near 6oF Cape Canaveral and South along the IMMEDIATE coast..cooler inland, with lows in the 40Fs north of I-4. 


The colder morning will be, as it stands now, on Monday when a second boundary will have pulled through dry, but swing winds back toward NW..making for a much cooler morning Monday morning. That morning will be followed by a fairly rapid swing to onshore wind component..and we can call it a day with cold air threats.


NEXT SYSTEM: Having been watching and watching and watching, there appears to be indications that a more widespread chance of rain and maybe storms will be once again knocking on Florida's Door come close to this very time next week when rain again will be possible. This next system has been in the cue on the GFS model for quite some time, but given the time extension until we reach reality..anything yet can go.

"Cold Front" Sliding Slowly Through Florida Today - Not a Big Change Maker

9AM Position of cold front with moderate rain showers and some thunder over the Gulf of Mexico
The front to slide into Central Florida mid-late afternoon through midnight (South Central by then).
SMALL chance of elevated thunder as show in the image, but minimal. If so, even a heavier rain shower if possible could manifest a wind gust or so in the 40mph range, but again, chances are low but not completely unattainable for thunderstorms. 

Here is how the same area appears on satellite imagery. Note how long the front will take to get into Dead Central today. In other instances of cold frontal passage, the distance to be traversed  with strong fronts could take a matter of a few hours rather than 12 hours at least as will be the case today.

And Finally........

Wind fields MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure/The Surface/Ground Level). SW-WSW wind today and warm most areas except North Florida before cloud cover moves in. No problems for peak heating all of Central and South..but far North Central might get the clouds in before peak heating  north of I-4. Note the  projected cold front positions, and how it barely skits by far South Florida before pulling off more toward the east rather than south. Rain showers or a sprinkle possible between the green lines.

TODAY: It is Wednesday, January 18. Cold front moving South and East today through Florida with warmer temperatures most areas except the barrier islands of Brevard downwind of the cooler waters of the Two Big Rivers but even there it will be warmer today (just not 'as warm' as inland); highs even still will be in the mid-upper 70Fs and maybe some lower 80Fs South Florida toward the East Side of the state. The front is accompanied by cloud cover expected to reach I-4 and south during early-mid afternoon in varying degrees, reaching Dead Central toward late afternoon.


If there is to be any thunder heard today suspect it will be up until 9pm toward East Central, but lightning even then SHOULD be either cloud to cloud or in-cloud (and not hitting the ground). There is a sliver of opportunity in there for cloud to ground strikes along and just north/south of I-4 as far south as an area near Sanford/Mims until 7pm. Any showers or even a thunder producing 'storm' especially could result in wind gusts around 40mph. ..


HOWEVER, this discussion is based on 2AM EST forecast model runs, thus early morning information has not been assimilated yet into the model depicted outlooks which will be spewing out of the computers shortly after noon time. Thus, refinement if necessary, of this post could be necessary by early afternoon. Anticipating that if anything, conditions will not be even as 'bad' as written in this post. Better case scenario will be very little rain anywhere south of I-4 except toward the East Side of the State. Rain is not expected as far as this blog post is concerned south of a line running from Palm Bay to Sarasota, and most of the official NWS offices seem to be in agreement on that from what I briefly read this morning.  


I did look at the morning Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which is located in Norman, Oklahoma, Outlook for thunderstorms today..and this is their line of thinking for POSSIBLE thunder, not definite thunder.

The "Storm Prediction Center" (SPC) Thunderstorm Outlook for today issued around 8AM EST this morning. Note that no Severe Storms are anticipated per the other colors indicating "Risk" of Severe Levels Ranging from Slight to High Risk of Severe

BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY: Cooler temperatures for a day or so after the front the north half of the state, or another way of looking at it..in that same area in green above where thunder is possible today. The warmest morning lows will run down the Barriers of Brevard toward Palm Beach County and across toward Sarasota and South as winds will quickly swing around to NE-ENE-E during the day on Thursday and then become more SE on Friday. Mornign lows in the mid-upper 40Fs interior Central and North, but along the Barriers and South in the mid-upper 50Fs ..much like those of yesterday and today.


WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY: Warm! Overnight lows along the east coast from the Cape and South possibly in the mid-upper 60Fs by Sunday morning if not 70F and daytime highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near the beach and into the low 80Fs by Sunday inland. No real chance of rain is in the extended, nor is any cold air through the remainder of January anticipated. As noted before, that last cold spell could have been our last of longer than 1 or 2 day duration for the winter. Still have the first 1/2 of February to go though. Severe weather chances will need to be looked out for as well as we approach Florida's severe weather month (officially) of March, although, with the La Nina Pattern in full-hold, even that might be dealt with in ease.   

"Sundog" in Center of Image formed by ice crystal in the high altitude cirrus clouds

Sundogs are made commonly of plate-shaped hexagonal ice crystals in high and cold cirrus clouds or, during very cold weather, by ice crystals called diamond dust drifting in the air at low levels. These crystals act as prisms, bending the light rays passing through them with a minimum deflection of 22°. If the crystals are randomly oriented, a complete ring around the sun is seen — a halo. But often, as the crystals sink through the air they become vertically aligned, so sunlight is refracted horizontally — in this case, sundogs are seen.


TODAY: Based on latest satellite imagery and a throw in from model guidance for comparison, high clouds today will be  less prevalent than of yesterday.  That means in a nut shell, more sun than not. Winds from the NNW-N later in the day at 10-18mph along the open areas with highs in the low-mid 60Fs, and some upper 60Fs South Florida.


TONIGHT/MONDAY: Winds becoming light after or near dark and veering toward the NNE-NE-ENE through the overnight. Coastal lows from Canaveral and south should level off mid-late evening in the mid-upper 50Fs, whereas further from the coast lows will fall within the 40Fs realm with only a few high clouds.


On Monday the wind will become ENE-E during the day with highs all areas in the mid-upper 60Fs, possibly lower 70Fs SW Coast of the peninsula. Clouds becoming a non-issue in the high altitude level category, but a better chance of lower level clouds due to moisture off of the Atlantic. Monday overnight lows again warmer than the previous evening, remaining in the low-mid 60Fs Canaveral and South, 50Fs inland or upper 40Fs. Winds continuing to veer toward the ESE through SSE toward sunset.


TUESDAY: Winds overnight will be  veering yet more toward the S-SSW-SW. A cold front will be entering our 'picture' but have little to no impact Central and South Florida in days ahead. Circulation around high pressure near Bermuda continues warm air advection with highs all areas in the mid-upper 70Fs with partly cloudy skies with a small chance of mostly cloudy intervals. In short, nothing like the past few days have been by a long-shot.


WEDNESDAY: Cold front will be struggling to impinge through the peninsula with noteworthy impact. Any rain showers should  be restricted to the I-4 corridor (Tampa/Orlando/Daytona) ie. North Central and north, although a sprinkle or light rainshower 'could' occur Central Wednesday evening toward sunrise Thursday. Mostly cloudy and a pleasant overnight low in the 60Fs.


THURSDAY/SATURDAY: Winds behind the front as it undergoes frontalysis quickly become ENE-E behind its decaying boundary pulling east and out over South Central Florida never really reaching far South Florida. Lows remaining in the 60Fs east coast overnight with highs in the mid 70Fs interior, but cooler east of US1 due to the influence of cool ocean waters and light onshore winds.

Florida Front Frolics Forth and Through

Infrared Satellite image shows front's position around 730AM south end of Lake
Okeechobee, after clearing Central around 6AM. Red shows in general the jet stream level winds today through most of the weekend and thin patches of high clouds associated with those winds. Another image further down shows those winds in graphic form.

Colorized Depiction with labels of surface temperature in Fahrenheit Degrees at 730AM EST. The 60F line HAD been north of Dead Central prior to the front early, early this morning. Blue arrows show direction of colder air impingement southward.

TODAY: Best surprise is no surprise in the case of today. That being, the cold front went through per schedule and is now toward the south end of Lake Okeechobee one hour after sunrise. Much drier air is located over North Florida with dew point temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20Fs. In comparison, the Daytona Area has dewpoints now in the mid-upper 30Fs and East Central toward Canaveral remains a good 10-15 degrees higher. The dew points  are a good determinant of how dry the air is. The lower the dewpoint the drier the air. The dry air is working south all day along with the colder air (drier air holds less heat).


Highs today will likely not get above 60F north of a line running through Melbourne or Palm Bay area toward South Tampa Bay...with highs near the lower 70Fs far South Florida. Highs in the lower 50Fs North Florida. NW wind all day at 10-15mph.  This cold spell in a sense will not be as bad as the previous one for two reasons. 


1) It looks like we will start out with less brisk of a wind thus wind chill temperatures not a big player; and, 


2) All in all over night lows not looking to get toward freezing on any overnight period. 


This will simply be a bit of a prolonged very cool to cold period with intermittent cloudier periods, especially over the Southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the state through the weekend. Thus, although it might be cooler further north (North Central and North), this area is more likely to see more of the sun and feel direct warmth from it's rays as opposed to those in South Florida. Give or take which ever one prefers. 

Today and Saturday Jet Stream Winds forecast with front location mid- morning today drawn in. This shows the air mass moving over Florida will be a bit of a modified Pacific NW type and not straight from the North Pole as is the case when there is a widespread freeze over the state. This also shows how Pacific type winds are playing in to the equation, aiding in the modification of the' air mass', although this depiction is for generally 30,000 ft aloft (6 miles over head), as opposed to at the ground.

Note the wind speeds annotated in the image above provided within the white squares with values ranging from 70 - 120 knots (kts).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Coldest overall day, colder than today all areas by generally 3-6 degrees during the day and much colder Saturday morning all areas, as well as Sunday morning.  The warmest overnight lows will likely be EAST of the both rivers in Brevard County and southward. Same reasoning will apply far west coast south of Tampa. Lows do not appear will get to freezing except toward far North Florida, but mid-upper 30Fs and lower 40Fs could be widespread these mornings. Those warmer areas will likely remain closer to the mid-upper 40Fs, and warmer Keys and coastal SE Florida.


MONDAY: Still no change in previous line of thinking. Warmer east coast as onshore winds develop over night Sunday night or late in the day, preventing temperatures from falling along the east coast. No truly Cold spell   for QUITE SOME TIME TO COME also remains at this point;  only perioeds  "on the cool side" from time to time (so far). Maybe some showers or at least a cloudy period toward Wednesday with the next front, but as stated, cold air with this next boundary has yet to materialize more than a few tics below normal  seasonable readings.

Three Cold Days Ahead to Commence Overnight- Tonight

Cold days EMERGENCY  beginning Friday morning, although not as cold as in this image. We might be lucky to see blue sky to much of a degree for Friday and Saturday, unlike this pristine image shows . More below.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Okay, not quite an emergency, but this post does have urgency. Late day post this Thursday evening. Post haste make not waste, so it will be made brief.  


A second cold front after yesterday's, can't even tell one went through given the warm air  today, is on the approach as noted in Wednesday's post. The front will be across Central Florida between 3AM -7AM Friday morning  and   approaching the north shore of Lake Okeechobee during sunrise. Wind behind the front becomes northwest. Skies should remain partly cloudy at times over night..with mildly cooling temperatures as would be expected after sunset. 


The bigger change will be post-cold front early Friday as full cold air advection occurs during peak heating on Friday. This will offset the normal diurnal heating cycle, and in fact, temperatures will likely FALL all morning after sunrise toward noon or early afternoon. Highs Central remaining in the mid-50s and lower 50Fs far north central to upper 40Fs further yet north. South Central and South to be in the low-mid 60Fs, and maybe some upper 60Fs far south.  


Good chance it will become at least mostly cloudy mid afternoon as dense jet stream cirrus clouds and 500mb cirrostratus clouds are swept well overhead, blocking the sun's rays .


Despite the cloud cover blanket potential, lows by Saturday morning might still fall to the mid-upper 30F north half toward the lower-mid 40Fs extreme East coast (east of US1 toward Canaveral and South) and south Florida. Saturday appears will be the coldest day of this set up from sunrise to set, cooler than Friday by several degrees round the clock with continued cloudiness seeming to be a good bet. If the sun can be shining more than my line of thinking is this evening, temperatures will be easily 5 degrees warmer than noted in this post if not more. That does not appear to be likely though, even if the clouds are not as prevalent. Point is, back to the jackets and wind chills for a time.


SUNDAY: Frost possible Central and Northern Interiors, and warmer all areas by noon time or so, with highs into the lower-mid 60Fs Central, warmer south. East coast overnight lows Sunday night (east of US1 from Port Canaveral and South) might fall only very little after dark Sunday night.


MONDAY: Warming trend all parts of the state with a quick rebound. Onshore easterly winds   becoming more SSE toward Wednesday will prevent overnight coastal lows from falling below the low 60Fs. That is a big turn around to have overnight lows possibly warmer than the day time highs of Saturday and Sunday . 


BEYOND: The last Long Range model indicates a trend toward a chance of rain on Wednesday with another front in the area; however, temperatures are not expected at this point to fall to the low degrees of this front tonight or that previous one last week. If this year is like that of last year, this next cold snap might be the 'end all of end alls' for this season other than " onesies or twosies cold duration 'snaps' " 

Gusty Winds Today, Rain Good Bet, A Strong Storm Possible

Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) Lines and 10 Meter Winds AGL in Knots (Above Ground Level) per the Melbourne, FL National Weather Service (NWS) Website (see link in graphic). Front is shown in Gulf of Mexico. Expecting stronger activity today , if any, to be south of the red line. Prefrontal trough to be enhanced by late morning toward noon time with higher sun angle, although cloudy skies will prevail throughout the day offsetting  heating.

The above image shows where some boundaries at the surface exist. The satellite image shows what the sky looks like from above the clouds we see looking down toward earth.

CLOUDY skies can be see from space over Florida. Storms
are embedded within these clouds, mainly off Southwest Florida, with another small line becoming organized  about 60 miles west of Cedar Key near the lower Big Bend. The 'cold front' really is not much of a cold front seeing how it originated over the SW United States. The colder air is behind another front to come early Friday.

TODAY: Rain chance increases across the state today, although anticipate that not many areas will see the heavier rains. In fact, most areas will only experience light rainfall. A trace of rain fell in Canaveral near daybreak along with a "Red Sky at Sunrise". There is an old adage, "Red Sky in Morning, Sailor Take Warning".  Rain chances are shown by most of the model guidance to pick up late morning from west to east as daytime heating (albeit weak due to cloud cover) increases mid-level lapses rates (change in temperatures with height) to only a small degree. Otherwise, wind energy associated with the mid-upper level troughs which are propagating the surface front eastward will increase across Central and South Florida after Twelve Noon. At that time is when rainfall coverage could increase. Any storms will be embedded within the cloud cover, and will not be easily discernible upon their approach until very close to any one (your) location. Temperatures to remain in the low-mid 70Fs, possibly toward upper 70Fs far East Coast south of Brevard.


STORM CHANCES: As of this writing, a small cluster of storms with some lightning has taken shape well west of Cedar Key, FL which is located generally WSW of Gainesville, FL along the west coast. The biggest cluster of storms is well west of SW Florida in the Gulf. This cluster is closely linked to the warm Gulf waters of the Loop Current. It is thought by all guidance they will never make it to shore once they begin to depart those warm waters. So far, loops of radar and lightning animation seem to be verifying this line of thinking, but can never say never toward South Florida. For now though, the trend of several days has shown little activity over South Florida with this system, and early morning model runs have not changed along those lines.


Better chance appears now to be South of I-4 and north of a line running from near Sarasota to Vero Beach as was surmised yesterday. A few graphics are included below with descriptors.

Helicity is a measure of corkscrewing winds in the horizontal. The red shows higher helicity. The higher this value, the greater potential for lifting mechanisms in the atmosphere to act upon any shower or storm that can manifest in the generally unfavorable environment today. But one can never be sure in cases similar to those of today. In the past, a strong toward severe storm or two has managed to manifest regardless of preconceived notions. Believe the best chance of any such activity today over land will occur between the lavender lines, especially Brevard County. 

This above plot is as close to 'actual' as one can get. NOW, we can look at the Rapid Updated Cycle (RUC) model forecast plot for this afternoon around 3pm. This is  showing the Energy Helicity Index at the lowest atmospheric levels. The Green Shows at least 'something worth noting'. This value combines both helicity and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere...(long story).

01KM EHI  (Energy Helicity Index) per RUC. Note where the green is located. By the next hour in this run of the model, these values are even higher but have moved offshore Brevard, Southern Volusia, and Indian River County. Prior hours to this time frame show little. These are coincident with during and just after peak heating, no coincidence. Note another peak in green toward SW Florida. 

 ...For today, cloudy and breezy. Guidance shows winds of 40 knots just above the surface, so it is possible Small Craft Advisories and Lake wind advisories could be needed after 11AM toward late afternoon as the prefrontal trough and front cross the state. Guidance also shows winds could remain elevated to breezy well after dark. Winds from the South to SSW becoming SW-WSW at 14-22mph with gusts toward 32mph near any showers or possible thunder storms. The strongest wind gusts in storms should they be able to manifest COULD top 55mph, but coverage of such activity will be very isolated and therefore the Storm Prediction Center is no longer outlooking Florida for severe weather. The more favorable location is the Carolinas closer to the parent surface low pressure center.


Better chances for strong activity almost anywhere along the west coast toward West Central and SW Coast, as well east East Central. Brevard/Osceola, Eastern Orange, and Indian River Counties seem to have a better chance of stronger winds and a brief but heavy down pour, not to discount Northern Palm Beach and Martin Counties as well. Cloud to ground lightning is possible as well, but very isolated. Expect most lightning to be  in-cloud or cloud to cloud. 


It has not rained heavily in quite some time for most areas, so it is a good point to be made that roads could become slick easily today, and will be traversed during rush hour while still wet. The biggest threat today will be the roads, although some gusty winds and who knows, maybe a brief 'spin-up' like tornado toward East Central, but definitely not hanging any hats on that hook.


BEYOND: Front to clear the state after dark, and become draped out across the Florida Straits close to or just south of the Keys until the true COLD FRONT crosses the state overnight Thursday night and very early Friday. 


COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY FRIDAY..meaning, cold air filtering in on NW winds even during peak heating. Breezy on Friday and cold, becoming cloudy as well due to the potential of fairly thick altostratus and cirrostratus clouds...meaning..no sun. Hopefully, this will not be the case, but if so, could be highs Central and North will never breach the lower 50Fs, warming into the lower to mid 60Fs South Florida.

TODAY at 3pm. PREFRONTAL TROUGH in DASHED BLACK. This boundary
will be the potential real weather maker for rain related activity, although showers can accompany the actual front in blue as well. Partly cloudy on Thursday with increasing clouds late as the next front approaches.

 THURSDAY OVERNIGHT: Jet  streak of 140 kts winds aloft will be departing the SE States placing Florida in the left  exit region (right rear quadrant)..this generates lifting in the upper levels and could induce cloud coverage during the time of cold air advection.
A lethal combination!! for those not favoring cold weather.


FRIDAY - SUNDAY: Much like those last days that were cold. Winds become light with some sunnier skies but remaining very cool during daylight hours through Saturday and even Sunday to of less a degree. ..but morning lows to not appear will reach freezing, and even frost might be hard to come by due to light winds.


MONDAY: Cool start and then rebound. It still appears another stormy system will be on the horizon around week three of January, but this system now on our door step and the cold air to follow over the weekend and Friday might just be the end of the worst in the temperature department. Just Maybe.

Strong To Severe Weather Possible on Wednesday

Latest visible satellite image from this Tuesday morning. A cold frontal trough is taking shape into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)..shown. The Low over Texas is in the upper levels with a surface low further to the east in developmental stages. High pressure is gradually easing off the east coast of Florida with very light winds over much of the state gradually becoming SE-SSE today and S to SSW-SW on Wednesday as the high pressure moves further away and the front approaches.

TODAY: Peninsular Florida in the prime time of niceties today. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (do I hear a low 80F somewhere?)  except near the beaches and their cooler sea surface temperatures. Light winds and only a few clouds except toward the Panhandle and North Florida where denser clouds are producing potentially light rainfall over the Panhandle or at least dense cloud cover.  The image above is annotating areas of potential weather wary concerns for Wednesday. More on this in the next image.


Overnight lows tonight in the 60Fs state wide as clouds and moisture increases and winds become due south and pick up toward the 10mph range and stronger toward daybreak.


WEDNESDAY: Front crossing through. Winds becoming S-SSW at 12-20mph, possibly gusty. Increasing clouds Central and South right after day break with rains and possible storms already in progress NW Florida approaching the West coast from near Sarasota and north then across toward JAX early through mid-morning.  Winds at various levels of the atmosphere per the morning GFS Model Forecast Run show  sufficient speed shear / bulk shear  and even a little directional shear toward NE Florida Southward toward Ocala/Daytona/Sanford/North Titusville working into early afternoon, through various levels of the atmosphere to support winds gusts in the 40-55mph range in any heavy rain storm or thunderstorm. Thus, believe there COULD be a severe thunderstorm watch in affect at various times for different areas beginning early day through early evening (South Florida). Image for 10AM tomorrow morning per the GFS run with personal annotations...below:

In red is where I'm thinking lies a potential for severe winds at or above 58mph in gusts or even brief straight-line in any thunderstorm that can organize. Could be a brief tornado 'spin-off', but organized Deep Layer directional wind sheer is not really appearing to be sufficient for a flat out call on such formations as of this morning. South of the most southern red line, potential strong winds below severe category. Note that there is a second front to come some time toward overnight Friday night/early Saturday.

 
WEDNESDAY (CONT'D:) Rainfall to progress from west to east (and southward) during early to mid morning, first impacting the west side of Florida as far South as Sarasota well before reaching far East Central. Could be hearing strong to severe storm reports filtering in by mid-morning well before rainfall reaches the east coast. The Storm Prediction Center early today has ALL of Florida under a "See Text", meaning they are watching the situation, but not ready to hoist any 'for certainties' for a severe potential. If that were the case, Florida would be in what is referred to by their stringent guidelines as at least a "Slight Risk" (for severe weather). "See Text" in this case could mean that wide-spread severe weather is not expected, in which case any alerts or warnings to be issued will be on a case by case basis, and are not of a high enough threat at this point for the state to be under closer scrutiny for a full blow 'threat' .  Rainfall should be reaching south of I-4 after 12-1pm and progress Southeast ward through the remainder of the state mid afternoon through mid-evening before ending all areas well before midnight Wednesday evening.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower-mid 70Fs and lows in the 50Fs..partly cloudy. The second front is forecast so far to be crossing through overnight Friday night toward Saturday morning. The details on this boundary's passage will need to be refined as the time draws closer.


WEEKEND: Drier and much cooler to cold in the mornings. It is possible highs will never crack 60F Central and North on Saturday, with a slow warming trend albeit remaining below normal on Sunday. Cool start Monday morning with what might be a big recovery into mid-week next week as temperature recover to seasonal norms, if not a notch above those.

"Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs"