Is There a Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Overnight Tomorrow?

Other than Increasing Rain Chances Friday Night and Saturday
 "This" Might Be Something To Watch For

TODAY-FRIDAY: Deep moisture increasing from the SE AND the West well aloft currently in play. The cloud cover at the upper levels shown above is emanating well from the west and south just from north of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) South of Hawaii as seen on the Northern Hemispheric water vapor imagery. It's one long continuous trail, so no end in sight in that regard in the interim regarding ample clouds and moisture. 

Meanwhile,  a somewhat complex situation might be setting up over Florida and thereabouts Friday evening into early Saturday as the first of two short wave troughs preceding the next actual cold front for Sunday morning will pass across the state.

FRIDAY LATE: (note this time, just in case) The first is shown run after run by the GFS to occur across the Peninsula (somewhere) between South Central to North Central Florida Friday late evening beginning the west coast. Wind shear profiles and hodographs would indicate rotating storms, but so far no OFFICIAL outlets have even hinted at anything unusual to occur overnight, so to be taken with a big dose of question marks a glass of water, and call the doctor in the morning. 

The clincher in this regard is that beside the directional and speed shear with height, the mid level vertical velocities  especially toward the west side of the state are almost off the charts, therefore..only a heads up for some locally heavy but brief rain, or maybe even some 'rotating storms' but dare we mention those two words combined?..only in a post on a blog I suppose. But take it for what it's worth which might not be much. The GFS is the only one showing this I suppose because the NAM sure isn't..or at least not to the same degree nor timing wise.

SATURDAY: Instability to be greater this day than Friday night which was also showing increasing instability to climb north from South Florida even overnight. Though directional shear appears will be nearly absent, could be enough juice to get the camp fire's burning with 'thunder bolted lightning, very very frightening"  for Saturday beginning late morning through sunset with numerous 'notwithstanding maybes' this far out in time to be certain of all too very much of anything in regard to thunder as opposed to rain.

BEYOND: Front clears prior to Sunrise Sunday..with onshore winds commencing and not cold, but inland lows will be seasonably cool. Noting that high pressure to follow might set up a situation for the next two systems to follow to have their origins from Northern Mexico or South Texas, which could mean some troubling times ahead for  parts of the Deep South going into April. Time will tell if indeed a new pattern is beginning to emerge , and if not, no worse for wear.

Record Cool High Temperatures Today, Showers/Storms Friday/Saturday

TODAY: It's readily apparent that  a cold front has 'cleared the area' as the northerly winds are blowing well pre-sunrise. Suspect that the Brevard County area North might fail to ever see 60F degrees today, esp. (or perhaps) near Cocoa  Beach northward as well as the panhandle region. Inland and further south mostly lower to some mid 60Fs. Northeast breezy conditions could drive a 'wedge of much cooler Atlantic air" into the Cape zone later today further aggravating the situation (with some scrappy lower marine clouds in tow), though sun in wind protected areas will help alleviate any temporary 'discomforts'. This will all be over  though going into Friday. Per the NWS Office in Melbourne, Florida :

CLIMATE  
  
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH TODAY'S FORECAST   
HIGHS (EACH OF WHICH WOULD SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE).  
  
                RECORD   FORECAST  
DAYTONA BEACH..61 (2013)    60  
ORLANDO........68 (2005)    66  
MELBOURNE......64 (2013)    62  
VERO BEACH.....66 (2013)    64 

TONIGHT: Wind will be swinging onshore overnight, as such, the temperatures esp. from Canaveral and South could actually WARM by nearly 5 degrees overnight after midnight toward sunrise into the low to mid-60Fs by late morning with inland temperatures (and those south) even warmer. Moisture on the increase fairly steadily (but gradually) during the day as winds become more toward the SE by Thursday Evening.

FRIDAY: Though it is 'possible' some showers could manifest from near West Palm to Canaveral over night late Thursday night, it is quite a small chance. Winds will continue to veer more southerly Thursday night such that overnight once again more warming is anticipated with Friday dawning nearer to 70F (and higher) from the Cape South, but remaining a bit cooler inland and north. A front is approaching the area for Sunday, but in the interim the GFS has been holding steady on two most notable 'impulses' perfectly timed to affect the state on Friday afternoon first, then another on Saturday afternoon. Thus, a chance of showers and maybe some thunder on Friday afternoon into the evening. The bigger weather it appears will be over the Gulf of Mexico waters south of the Panhandle region. What effect blow off from that activity might have (if that is to be the case) over the state will have to remain suspect in the interim, for if there is too much cloud cover as a result of any potential 'big activity' out over those waters, rain chances might be replaced by merely increased cloud coverage (esp. since instability is not looking too favorable for storm activity on this day but wind fields might counteract that low instability ratio).

SATURDAY: Yet another impulse over the region with widespread potential of showers and thunderstorms. Instability is shown to be notably increased this day with stronger winds aloft remaining, and therefore there might be some stronger than usual storm activity on this day though at this point anything other than isolated pulse severe  or strong seems unlikely, at least as of this early stage of the game.

SUNDAY: Front to cross Central by late morning toward early afternoon. Could be some showers again with this boundary but more likely over South Central and South Florida interior and western regions. Wind quickly swings around to onshore behind the front though; therefore, temperatures like what we will experience today through early Thursday will not be experienced by any stretch of the imagination , remaining in the 60Fs and 70Fs Central and South Florida, and will also be much lighter as well (as opposed to the wind today)

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Spring Equinox has Occurred! Showers/Storms Saturday through Tuesday

Preparations For Spring Season in Full Swing at Sunrise Near The Cocoa Beach Pier.
Spring Equinox was at 12:57PM EDT Today.

TODAY Through FRIDAY: Little change today and Friday from yesterday with light winds and patches of clouds from time to time. Warmest nights along the beaches as well as coolest afternoons at the same locations. Inland highs in the upper 70Fs to near 80F, coast closer to mid-upper 70Fs north of Ft. Pierce (within a block or two of the ocean behind the sea breeze).

SATURDAY/Sunday: Wind becoming more south-southwest on Saturday with a significant increase of atmospheric moisture comparatively speaking from today. Instability is not shown to be all very impressive but with cold air aloft and a small chance of an east coast sea breeze at play, could see some rain showers and/or some thunder later Saturday afternoon as well as Sunday with highs due to low level convergence east side of state and south of I-4. Highs in the 80Fs almost all locations even at the coast depending on when the sea breeze kicks in (if it does). A frontal boundary will by laying out across the state 'somewhere' later on Sunday but should be lifted back north on Monday. 

MONDAY: Considerable cloud cover with more moisture. This day looks like it might be more of a light to moderate rain chance 'somewhere' over Central or North Central Florida to accompany the clouds, much like what occurred last week. Low pressure anticipated to form almost directly over the state which will lift to the ENE -NE into Tuesday. Monday night into at least mid-day Tuesday might be a time to watch for strong storms..but looks dicey to be making a call on anything just yet.

  

TUESDAY: Increasing winds aloft , bulk and slight directional shear but poor instability again spells out a situation somewhat like the other day last week when the tornado watch was issued, but like last time, the best winds will be after the low has shifted east of the state and as a result suspect this possibly could end up being another rain only (mostly ) event with some lightning. Front to clear out by early Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: Coolest day for quite some time (again). Dry and pleasant.

BEYOND:   Exactly how far south this next front for Wednesday gets (perhaps only the Florida Straits) will hold a bearing on weather heading toward Friday and/or the weekend in regard to rain chances. Not expecting a big warm up by weekend , but close to normal temperatures are possible. Warmest overnights at the beaches once again.

Chance of Unusually Strong - Severe Storms Monday

Latest View from above the Sky Notes Developing Squallish Like Activities Far to the west 

TODAY: No change in the line of thinking from previous post. Currently a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is pushing across the Panhandle and South Georgia where a few warnings are being issued as a result more than likely of the strong winds aloft, but with little instability at the low levels. 

As a result, thunderstorms with strong wind and rain storm tops  (thunder or not) are curling over toward North Central Florida , and as such should increase over that area later today in several hours, noticeable by early evening before sunset by several hours. Otherwise, warm and gusting SSE winds to near 32 mph in gusts this afternoon, coolest temperatures beach side , but inland highs could get well into the lower 80Fs with a few mid-80Fs possible. Very early springish outside today! 

MONDAY: Line might weaken some overnight, or might not, hard to say. Regardless, the 'region of interest' will focus toward I-4 by sunrise and into Central Florida as far south as a Vero Beach to Sarasota line by mid-late morning. It's worth noting that instability tomorrow, though not all that much, is still shown to be much more than what is over North Florida and south Georgia right now. 

Wind fields over North Central to Central Florida though won't be quite the caliber as what is over South Georgia right now, but will be strong enough for good speed shear  and a little directional shear as well.  Temperatures aloft are expected to warm but still fall within the threshold which would insinuate that strong storms could still occur, possibly even severe briefly and in small, isolated pockets. All it takes is one.  

The region near Dead Central once again is of interest as is often the case at this time of year as that is where the better overlap of instability (south) plus the winds aloft (north) intersect. Wind from the South - South southwest should be able to advect the greater instability over South Florida northward tomorrow after sunrise right into and under the stronger winds aloft beginning around 11AM through 4pm tomorrow.

 Much that occurs tomorrow though will depend on the southward progress of the greatest convergence along the front proper being made evident by the radar image below. 

As noted yesterday, some discrete storm cells might form over Central Florida mid day to afternoon. Those cells in particular though by appearance might look less threatening than a big squally line like feature, could actually pose a greater threat but of much shorter duration. The chance of such storms is not a certainty, only a potential. If they do start to form, the could all start to form at once  , once a particular unknown threshold is reached in the atmosphere. But if that threshold is never reached, then it stands to reason that no storms will form either.

"Tomorrow" 's  'best  guess' (for a blog post)  for Monday (South of the white line)

MONDAY NIGHT: The front looks like it might pass through Central Florida now after dark, continuing at least a heavy / periodic rain chance with stronger winds, even in rain showers, though that chance 'should theoretically' dwindle by late evening. Rain s should be but over for the most part by Sunrise Tuesday, but if earlier guidance is more correct than the last model run I'm seeing, could continue into mid-late day Tuesday. As noted in the previous post though, indications were that it could be over and done with by early morning Tuesday.

BEYOND: No big cool down behind this frontal system is being seen. Some cooler mornings, most notable inland with easterly winds presuming by Wednesday afternoon with the sea breeze. So far next weekend is looking like it might be very warm with light winds. 

Great Weekend In Store: Possibly Strong Storms Monday

"A Light to All The Nations"

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Pleasant weather in store near and South of I-4 all weekend as temperatures warm for both day and night. Very few clouds on tap for today with winds SE becoming more southerly as the weekend progresses with a weak 'land-breeze' over night tonight making for a cool start but quick warm up Sunday.  

Frontal boundary with associated low pressure systems will be taking shape over the Deep South U.S.A Region over the weekend with the  associated frontal boundary in toe. The best wind profiles throughout 'the column of atmospheric depth' will be over the Panhandle Region later on Sunday into post Midnight, but thermodynamic low level instability appears will be fairly weak in association with those wind. As a result, though some severe storms are possible, the flip side might be a much better chance of hefty rainfall totals. Meanwhile...

MONDAY: Near and South of I4 primarily. There 'could' be a weakening progression of the storms late night through mid-morning Monday as the front presses toward North Central Florida. I'ts all going to come down to timing, and models at this point begin to diverge. Going with the GFS, it looks like from near I-4 and north might be in the quiet zone time frame, with activity picking up by late morning near and south of there. Per the GFS, some prefrontal type individual storms cells could form toward East Central by early-mid-afternoon. Though wind profiles will not be quite to the caliber as they will have been over the Panhandle, thermodynamically speaking, it will be more unstable at low levels with some cold air aloft accompanied by a bit of mid level streak of strong winds primarily north of Vero Beach or the Sebastian Inlet area during peak heating. Therefore, could be some storms from wind gusts as noted in the image at that time, well prior to the main area of rains directly associated with the front - proper toward early evening.

This is showing 'possible severe storms' along the immediate west coast and panhandle as shown between red lines. Possible strong Part of Central Florida and South Florida..with East Central annotation in purple.

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BEYOND: After Monday afternoon's activity toward dark and into the evening , activity should weaken and cloud cover begin to taper off (after dark)... it appears much of the activity could clear out by early Tuesday. There are discussions  on OFFICIAL NWS WEBSITES regarding other models that this blogger does not have access to stating the activity in regard to rain chances could continue well into Tuesday, but discarding that potential based on the consistency of the GFS showing to the contrary for several consecutive model runs.  

Temperatures will only cool a little behind this front, with a rapid swing to onshore winds within 24 hours or so and modifying conditions. No big cool down is the message with near normal temperatures well into the remainder of the week with coolest morning lows away from the coast over the interior areas. Another frontal boundary approaches later toward next weekend, but so far impacts appear will be minimal.

IMAGE: The 1927 Jasper Tornado looks like the cover of Deep Purple's " Stormbringer" album from the 1970s...when inverted "(the negative). Looks a little too coincidental.

 

Next Rain / Storm Chance: Wednesday (?)

TODAY - SUNDAY: Gradual warming trend will be in place with cool mornings. On shore winds could result in some clouds closer toward the coast with warmer overnight lows at the immediate beaches south of The Cape beginning Sunday Morning. Clocks to be dialed forward one hour tonight;  it will getting light outside 'later' according to the clock but also dark later for the same reason from tomorrow to October. 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: These two days appear will be the warmest ones in the next week for the most part (at least so far). A 'short -wave' trough will be ejecting across the North Central Gulf toward Florida as winds locally become more predominantly SW . The coast  might not see a sea breeze one or both days. Otherwise, highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs and maybe some mid 80Fs interior South Florida. With a wimpy sea breeze, the beaches will remain in the lower to mid 70Fs, but warmer south of Ft. Pierce where ocean temperatures are warmer due to the closer proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Short-wave impulse extending to 20,000 ft. with a reflection there (at 500mb) with the trough perhaps slightly negatively tilted which is more favorable for strong storm activity, but jet stream winds will not be as strong as the other day. Regardless, some bulk and directional shear is noted to increase after midnight Tuesday night from West to East Sides mainly south of I-4 (at least as far as the GFS has shown for several model runs). This is the same disturbance that was mentioned a few posts ago, but which was also referenced in the last one as no longer showing up, but that it might show up in later model runs, and that it has done. Originally 'scheduled' for a Tuesday, it's now Wednesday and not nearly the threat as was first presented.

BEYOND: Only subtle ups and down with near normal temperatures and little to no chance of rains. The GFS is hinging at onshore winds making for some eastern side 'cloudy' days, at least mornings, but the GFS does have a tendency to over do such, but either way, no true weather impacts temperature, wind, or rain wise is foreseen for quite sometime outside of the "Wednesday Time Frame".

  

Severe "Possibility" Remains For Thursday

IF THE ABOVE GRAPHIC LOOKS FAMILIAR IT SHOULD,
 IT'S THE SAME ONE POSTED TWO DAYS AGO, BUT SEE COMMENTS -
CHANGES TO IT ARE NOT WORTH MAKING AN ENTIRE NEW GRAPHIC FOR,,,,

TODAY: Not much new to say really. The yet to truly form 'warm front' remains stationary over Central somewhere across Central Brevard County to South Brevard to the West coast, but it is barely discernible but by stability indexes. It might lift a bit further north to the 528 or so by later today but that's about it. Chance of showers from near Port Canaveral and South with the best chance it appears would be from near Vero Beach toward Ft Pierce and then some further south. Issue with South Florida is that it looks very dry down there, and not sure moisture will return enough by later in the day to manifest much more that some small showers. If there is to be thunder at all today, it should be near Ft Pierce if even, but as noted yesterday was expecting only showers today. Also, SPC took out the chance of thunder for daylight hours North Florida

THURSDAY: The 'Big Day' in Question remains elusive , as model disparagings run rampant, though to somewhat a lesser degree. 

All this talk might be not worth neither here nor there in the end, but as noted yesterday the forecast wind shear profiles and strength of the winds aloft and colder temperatures aloft are nothing to sneeze at. Suspect some big storms over the loop current will get going sending plenty of 'debris clouds' over the state which might shut out too much low level instability. Primary focal point from the perspective of sitting in this location is from near Tampa Bay to just south of there to somewhere about 10 miles either side of a line running to Port Canaveral where this dormant boundary over that area continues to reside

"On this Day, March 5th, Last Year"  - Happy Ash Wednesday

. Seen it more than once where a system would come in, all the Instability to the south, all the wind energy to the north..and a storm rides right along both sources for a quick spurt of severe or near it. 

A few different scenarios could end up unfolding such as small isolated cells popping up by mid-late morning well ahead of the great forcing scheduled to move in from 10AM through 3PM..but a various locations at different times, or there could be a bit of a small squall line feature to move from west  to east, or just several rounds of disorganized by isolated to strong storms over the course of the day. Should be interesting to watch from a weather perspective one way or the other just to see what does or does not happen.

Below is the SPC outlook as of late this morning, and it can be compared to the image above , which is why a newer one was not created for purposes of a simple blog post.

Not too much difference in the latest SPC OUtlook, with their higher risk area (just noted as of this morning)t a bit further south than the  blog noted post 2 days ago which looks reasonable enough.  Still watching for the chance of a storm to 'ride the gradients' though on the north side of the yellow area shown..which is where some latent 'helicity' could be lurking just waiting for a storm to form so it can reveal itself

 
BEYOND: Cooler somewhat on Friday and/or Saturday, things are changing fast with each model run in the extended and Tuesday now appears will NOT be a severe weather day afterall, but will keep watching...the GFS has been known to abruptly shift in reverse after a few days to an older and previous perspective.  As well as now that we mention that, it's now bringing colder air in during the latter portions of mid March. Just goes to show, if you can't trust a weather model one day out, why would one bother looking 7-10 days out? (there are good reasons too though for planning purposes). 

Last Year , This Day in the Morning

Chance of an Isolated Severe Storm on Thursday Continues

Sunrise Tuesday March 4th, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: As expected, the frontal boundary mentioned in the previous post   hung up over North Central Florida. It appears it made it as far as a line from Port St. John to Central Tampa Bay, but might have slid north a bit after sunrise. The following image is for around 4pm this afternoon showing the boundary extending well into the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong upper level jet (stream)  is approaching that area over Mexico from Southern Cali region which should help  to develop a poorly formed surface low as a result of increased lift ahead of that feature, but better formed toward the mid levels going into Thursday and Friday as it moves east to east - north - east with time.

Temperature plot today for this afternoon from TwisterData.com.
"Like" them on Facebook if desired. Blue is cold, red is warm 

WEDNESDAY: Warmth continues mainly south of I-4 as front moves little. Chance of mainly showers south half of state by mid-late afternoon, but not so sure we'll see thunder in this region. Winds aloft will be increasing but instability looks meager with no surface boundaries being shown 'yet'. SPC is showing for general thunder tomorrow north half of state, but not so sure about that at this point.

THURSDAY: Including the same image from yesterday's post (below) for active weather 'chances' combined with the latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) graphic. They are located in Norman, Oklahoma. It is SPC that issues Tornado/Thunderstorm WATCH boxes. Actual "Warnings" are issued by local offices as conditions warrant, watch box or no watch box.

So far, it appears there might not be a solid enough argument for a Watch Box on Thursday, but we might be in what SPC calls, a "See Text" area for isolated cases of strong or severe-ish like storms, but not numerous enough to warrant a higher degree of concern over a large enough of "population". 

Again, the strong winds aloft and cold air in our region this day isn't to be messed with, but lack of instability and a low level focal point  argues against anything organized except maybe over the Gulf, not to discount however that guidance continues to show ample vertical velocities most anywhere across the state from mid-morning through late afternoon toward sunset.

ABOVE: SPC Low end chance of Severe region (left) compares with yesterday's area in between the 'orange' lines (right).

AS of this morning's looks, that red area would need to be shifted north by about 50 miles and maybe another 'red' area far south Florida/Keys from the GFS 12z (7AM) model run. But since things keep changing within and between model runs, and nothing is fully adding up to a higher confidence of a 'screaming severe' situation, best let lying dogs lay as is for now.

BEYOND: Front to clear through though no later than it appears Friday morning, with little temperature effects other than a cooler Friday. Winds to come back on shore by Saturday after northerlies on Friday , and then we might be seeing a repeat situation set up as noticed before next week.

It is not unusual for a front to come through every 4-7 days this time of year. As it is, this upcoming front will be originating from a low in the western Gulf (as was pointed out) rather than from the far North. The pattern is getting established , so again, the pattern within The Pattern would not be considered unusual to recur in some form or fashion; and sure enough, the GFS is hinting that will be the case. 

That being, another low forms in the near same location from the next front to come through. So far, the signs are that this next one on "Tuesday" if it does so happen to occur, could post a much more significant severe weather threat than the one on Thursday. 

All eyes are on deck with this one already per SPC and and the NWS (National Weather Service).  But so far it's an ear tickler and eye massager until there is a more solid basis to say much more about next week at this point in time.

Other than next Tuesday (which is quite a way off to really be talking about it by and large)...the GFS was showing for an 'extended cool down' the next parts of March for several days, but now that seems to be going by the wayside, with only average to near above average temperatures now being the favored projection. Should be a Spring 'Breakers's Day Dream come true if that continues to be the case going into mid-March. 

Man your battle-stations!! 

"Severe Weather Possible Thursday If....."

Monday Morning Sunrise - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Warm from noon through sunset. SSW winds with no sea breeze seems to be a possible outcome today, which means highs in the lower-mid 80Fs across most of Central and South Florida including the coast. The warmest location today if the SSW-SW wind persists should be closest to the east coast on equal footing with inland locations if not even warmer. This all ahead of a cold front that is putting  the seeming "  Endless Winter" into full gear today and tomorrow across nearly every area east of the Rockies except for Florida by the time tomorrow is through with. The front is expected to make it to near "Dead Central" or a bit south of there at the surface, but just above around 2000 ft it will remain back toward I-4 as it appears now.

Tomorrow morning forecast lows not much different than this morning over Peninsular Florida though there could be an increase in cloud coverage (watching the SW- west Central Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday)

 TUESDAY: Continued warm all of South and South Central Florida with the chance of more cloud coverage holding temperatures down especially near and north of I-4 and to a lesser degree north Central. Though there could be a shower or two south of I/4 it appears to be very very low.

WEDNESDAY:  Will shoot with partly cloudy skies as warm front (the old frontal boundary lifts further north) reasserts a 'warm sector' across  Central and South making for another warmer afternoon as low pressure in some shape or form approaches and develops to an either lesser or more degree near the Loop Current and/or south of the Louisiana coast in the northern Gulf. The big question in regard to Thursday's weather appears will be just exactly where any low will be located and how strong it will be. 

This set up has been foreseen off and on now for over a week as mentioned in an old post which   referred to the earlier parts of March appearing to have a severe weather threat potential.

THURSDAY: This is the day the 'blogger' has been watching per the GFS signals now for over 3 days and 14 consecutive model runs with restraint of pen.  The Storm Prediction Center and the NWS Offices are all eye-balling Thursday now (as it used to be a maybe for Friday too, but that seems to have gone by the wayside)..for a chance of strong to severe storms.

 No doubt it would be irresponsible to not at least mention the chance when considering the latest GFS shows the core of a 120 KT JET streak from the 500mb through the 200 mb levels cranking across North Florida placing Central in the left exit region (for maximized divergence aloft) coupled with vorticity maxes in the mid-upper levels amidst very cold air in those layers as well going from Thursday morning into mid afternoon. Consider it done. But as usual, there is all those 'ifs' ...

The down side for severe is lack of low level instability and that there is also a possibility that the most favorable winds will either race out too far ahead of the best low level convergence closer to the approaching front or even lag behind the better low level features/variables ( an on-going  theme for this winter season so far). There are other factors involved which get more complex for reader's purposes; suffice it to say though that very cold air aloft and the strongest winds aloft we've seen in quite some time  will be in place (or about to be in place) while Central and South Florida are in the warm sector all day Thursday which if other factors align could spell a 'recipe for disaster' (very tongue in cheek speaking). But will they forget the sugar?

Therefore, would not be surprised to hear some news stations beginning to mention this day (if they have not already).

BEYOND: Frontal boundary should clear by sunset or shortly thereafter, or at least the chance of the bad weather will, followed by slightly cooler but not cold weather for Friday through the weekend. So far, next weekend appears to be shaping up to be very nice;  a bit cool but far from cold.

Another Chance of a Strong Storm East Central

"Storm Outflow Approaches North Canaveral"

TODAY: Not much change today from yesterday although the day is starting out quite differently. A thunderstorm complex that developed over the Eastern Gulf overnight is spreading 'cloud debris' from its thunderstorm tops and mid-level fragments across Central Florida at sunrise this morning. Latest satellite animations dictate if all goes according to plan (and nothing changes) that the skies should begin to clear out by 1oAM (west coast) to noon from west to east, and maybe a bit earlier once the sun gets to doing its thing.

Otherwise, the frontal boundary per models is in agreement to be stretched east / west very close to or just north of the 528 Beach Line to Orlando then on toward just south of Brooksville on the west coast or maybe further north. Suspect this will act as a better mechanism for some 'squirrely' action (helicity) as well as more along the east coast east of I-95 if sea breezes can set up. Watch out for the 'squirrely action' when combined with cold air aloft!  

Also, there might be some remnant outflow boundaries hanging around from yesterday's activity. Further south, a disturbance was offshore the West Palm area over night so suspect this area might be in sustenance at least for the first half of the day. Also, the RAP/ and SPC Mesoscale guidance shows this area  over South Florida again to be quite dry through the mid-levels so showers might have a hard time down there once again, though sea breeze interactions from West Palm and north (and any outflow from activity further north) could act to bust a forecast bubble with a strong storm as well.

BEYOND:  Front might end up in the morning just a bit further south but we'll see. If so, best storm activity will be South Central and South Florida on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another disturbance will be coming across the Northern Gulf from the west on Wednesday behind the surface front. Looks like an over-running rain event could set up for North Florida then into Central mainly during the dark hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning followed my much cooler temperatures to close out the week.

"Beach Outreach"

WEEKEND WEATHER is looking to be quite mild with mainly 50Fs and low to mid 70Fs but coolest at the beaches in the afternoons with a light sea breeze.

Chance of Storms, Maybe Strong, Mainly North Central

"SUNDAY...FOGGY SUNDAY"

TODAY: As expected, 'possibly (emphasis added)  strong' storms again today for mainly North Central Florida where a few 'could be strong' if they can get going.  Showers and maybe thunder possible further south especially much later, but for now will not highlight that area as at this time it appears the regions of South Central and South are very dry in the mid levels and will require some extra forcing from convergence or a trigger, and not sure either of which there will be strong enough to get something going, but if so it could also be strong.

Further north though to Central the same general theme of query applies, but with a few more things going for that area, mainly more moisture and good bulk shear through the mid-levels (or at least some) and perhaps a tad more directional shear today as well. Instability is not as great today as yesterday though, but we do have a disturbance with a definite trigger crossing North Florida right now. In any case, might need to watch for activity to begin to manifest after 2:00pm and be particularly cautious if a storm starts to 'drop more south the move east' (be a 'right mover') especially as they reach the sea breeze, or any storm that approaches more from the NW-NNW instead of the west.  

BEYOND: Chance of showers still into Tuesday and/or Wednesday with each day being a bit different. So far, Monday looks to be the quieter of days, and Tuesday has the potential to again reap the harvest of more favorable parameters  for  a strong storm or so.

Possible "Stronger-ish" Storms Central Florida Later Today

"Waiting for Peak Heating for Strongest Activity Today"

Storm Offshore Cape Canaveral on Friday, February 21

Image composed at 7AM this morning.
Not much from this line of thinking  but could change to extend thunder chances
south toward Ft. Pierce (at least)

TODAY: Frontal boundary is already near the location shown in the image above generated around 7AM this morning. Boundary should slow down or stall near location shown  -   surface based instability is expected to be greater than yesterday with continued cold air aloft; and 'helicity' in the atmosphere should be available close to what remains of the boundary as other conditions are not much different than yesterday other than winds are more unidirectional today than was the case yesterday. Storms could form near that boundary and 'roll off' south into parts of Central. Best chance for activity to begin forming and rolling east and offshore would be after 2-3pm with the last of it offshore by dark or shortly thereafter.   Short term guidance has been flipping around a lot, but this blog post is based on the consistency of the GFS showing greatest vertical velocities across Central for 2 days now, and the latest short term RAP-RUC is now showing the same. Locally heavy rainfall possible and frequent lightning possible it would seem, but time will tell. Sure feels a bit 'juicy' out there right now for February. On this day in 1998 the worst Tornado Outbreak in Central Florida history occurred beginning after 10pm.

BEYOND: The frontal boundary will lift north and dissipate overnight, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms through Monday and/or Tuesday remaining as temperatures remain above normal to perhaps much above 'normal' by around Tuesday;   but as noted yesterday, each day will have its own unique set of circumstances. There might well be a day that chances on one or more days will be very low.

About the only change in latest models since yesterday is that a bigger rain - type event seems to be going away now. The GFS has rain chances extended into Wednesday afternoon, and from there it will be a matter of what if anything begins to form in the Western Gulf region to slide toward 'somewhere across Florida'.  Would be interesting to see if that bigger rain chance re - materializes in later model runs.

"Chance of Isolated " Strong to Severe Storms Today - Rain Chances into Tuesday

Reflecting on Upcoming Weekend Weather

TODAY: Little change from previous post. A frontal system is now working into the panhandle region with some severe thunderstorm warnings being hoisted in the process. This line will potentially slow down a bit after sunrise and as peak heating commences. A good cloud cover is still a long time coming , though more storms toward the Gulf and over Northwest Florida should begin to spill over their anvil tops in advance of the more organized 'line' across Central Florida by late morning to early afternoon,  which might begin to weaken as it approaches the I-4 .

Further south, better sunlight / heat and instability through the morning to noon hours will build as a portion of the Southern Branch Jet starts to meet up with the Northern Branch rounding the base of the Low/Trough now focused over the Northern Great Lakes, which the approaching front is associated with. 

As the Southernmost Branch approaches so too will upper level divergence over the region building in surface based instability (i.e., Central Florida). Winds could become 'side' shore, or parallel the coast south of I-4 as well rather than remain SW as stronger winds aloft approach. This could add low level convergence coupled with upper level divergence into the mix well ahead (in advance) of the more organized line, and it is that activity IF it can manifest that seems would be the larger threat rather than the line itself. 

Sometime after 2 or 3PM perhaps (?), but showers and multiple pockets of rain and thunder could continue once an area such as this forms if it does. Chances are , the first storm of the day for any one location would be the biggie for that location, but not completely or necessarily so depending on the situation.

SATURDAY: The front should hang up close to Direct Central or just south of there then wash out during this day. Cloud cover will be around and rain chances much lower, though at time it appears will focus near the remaining boundary somewhere over Central Florida and inland though activity that does form will get whisked off toward the east coast .

SUNDAY: Southerly winds once again in advance of the next front referred to in the previous post. Another chance of storms just from the coast inland mainly, and some 'could' be a bit stronger if sea- breeze convergences get into the play. Monday and Tuesday are a bit of the same story as the front moves in but inevitably will have their own unique set of circumstances which is too far out in time for specifics.

BEYOND: Wednesday so far appears to be a dry day , but then...

Potential rain event (at least) coming the 27th time frame.  Going into the first week of March still looks a bit dicey as well, as it appears a bit of a more 'El Nino-ish' looking pattern might be setting up;  for California will be getting some big activity from Central and Maybe Southern Cali around the 27th as well, and after that as well. It's that next big upper level impulse to approach Florida or somewhere over the Southeast between March 3-5th that is still in question.

Warm and Pleasant Until Friday/Showers & Thunder Then Possible Until...?

"Change in the Weather is About to Dawn"

TODAY- THURSDAY: Warming overnights and pleasant and sunny days ahead with inland highs in the lower to some mid 80sF and closer to 80F immediate beachside under sunny skies but with some increasing cloud cover each day as greater moisture works in from the south especially on Thursday. Meanwhile, a very vigorous and potent upper level low will form east of the Central Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. Though not sure of the exact definition of 'Bombing Out" , the bottom on this one is going to really drop out and pressure will be quite low. Expecting a vigorous QLCS type Squall Line with broken arching line segments and bow echoes with potentially tornadoes especially in Illinois , Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky but elongating out quickly into a straight line wind event. Eventually the event unfolds east to parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states and south. Much further south, Florida sits high and dry oblivious to what is going on to our west and north until Friday as the tail end of the front enters the panhandle.

FRIDAY: Again a warm if not warmest day of all, with SW winds possibly side shore south of I-4. Instability will be at about it's best since quite some time ago now with cold air aloft but with little in upper level winds. Chance of showers and some thunder though if conditions are ripe enough wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated strong storms with hail being the main hazard.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY: No point in going into specifics just yet, as the GFS is bouncing from one extreme to the other as to when the actual front will go through. After a very close call into Central it appears it will retreat back north and await the next upper level trough to rotate around the near H-Bomb Monster Mother Load Low by then in progress near the Canadian border. It is this front that is causing the bigger problem with whether or not it will make a thorough, scrubbingly clean passage or not. High pressure over and near Florida is reluctant to budge, Which will win out? Too soon to say.

As a prelim. rain chances again Saturday and Sunday, but cloud cover might become an increasing issue for wide coverage as well as 'any storm' strength though guidance continues to show ample instability (instant ability). Experience says the GFS has a hard time with instability over Florida beyond one day normally, though that is summer time norm for the model. Winter time? Hard to say how it will pan out, but suspect for now showers and possibly thunder one or both days if not even...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, what will the front do. latest shows the front never hardly clearing Florida but as a very shallow boundary, which has not been the norm for the most part over the past three days and 12 other model runs of the GFS. now showing possibly thunder on Monda and or Tuesday...Regardless...

FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 4 :  It is this week that is of greater interest as there has been a rather consistent tread of the GFS to show for a potential one if not two (as of the last run) severe weather events across the state...OR...it might just be plain much cooler than normal. So far, running 50/50, Either/Or.  

Isolated Strong Storm or Isolated Severe Possible late Today through 10pm

(See Below Discussion)

TODAY: Not much change to previous post other than the forecast surface low now appears will be more organized (stronger) as it cross along or near the I-10 to just south of it tonight. Very warm today with highs in the lower to even mid 80Fs (South Florida) before cirrus blow off moves in. Might see some record highs in a few areas contingent upon when the cirrus clouds start to break over the area due to thunderstorm tops which will form well to the west of the state and blanket the state by early or mid afternoon (possibly later). Assuming that does indeed occur. For if not, even stronger storms could occur later over the Peninsula south of I-4 in particular.

Mid-Late Afternoon:  Again, strongest activity will not be associated with the actual cold front which will make things much colder to cool Thursday through Saturday. Some showers and maybe some thunder especially South Florida by mid afternoon, though over Central we might be restricted to High based low topped convective like rain showers due to high LCLs (lifted condensation levels). Winds primarily from the SW but right near the beaches some backing toward paralleling the coast looks to be possible as far north as Southern Volusia (perhaps).

After 5-6PM: This seems to be around, give or take an hour, the big shift when LCLs lower and upper level winds begin to increase (unbeknownst to us at the ground) as high level 30-35,000 foot level winds over 100kts begin to move in -- Central at the approaching Right Exit Region for those winds which would increase upper level divergence and mid level lifting despite the lack of low level instability.

 As a result, much of the activity will not exactly be 'surface based' but it is only February so hard to say for sure. Not expecting a good covering of 'organized activity' though there could be some isolated pockets of it, and those are impossible to say exactly where they will manifest, so will broad brush the areas noted above in the image. As a result of this being not a more formidably organized situation synoptically speaking, not sure we'll even see a watch box posted, but wouldn't be surprised either way.

Timing is everything, including the season. Suspect that there might be some tornado warnings after or near the 'dinner hour' time-frame toward 10pm but whether anything actually verifies on the ground is another matter. Paying especially close attention to those east of I-95 mainly from the Southern Volusia County area south to Vero Beach due to lingering low level helicities that might manifest from the intracoastal/ocean dynamics set in place earlier in the day though invisible to the model guidance.   This 'could ' mean a very brief spin up like 'tornado' situation embedded within any stronger storm, but those would be very isolated. More predominately seems to be the chance for severe category straight line winds or even a brief spin up elsewhere as a result of interactions more than directly related to a discrete stand alone storm itself. Activity should be increasing in coverage after 7pm and exit off the east coast by 11pm for the most part with the cold front still many hours behind. Possibly rain showers with the front.

THURSDAY: Still appears the front will be directly across Central Florida within an hour either way of sunrise but the true cooling will not be fully appreciated until the sun starts to set. Breezy behind the front with westerly winds perhaps busting upwards of 30 mph for a period of time but good clearing with some earlier in the day clouds before the drier air moves in by late morning to early afternoon.

Much colder Thursday through Saturday mornings though gradually warming with a more noticeable change by Sunday after a weak front attempts to enter North and Central with little to no impacts. Afternoons in the lower to mid 60Fs (Central) but to the 70Fs by Sunday or even Saturday south of I4.

BEYOND: Dry for the most part and warm much like a week or so ago. It's as if so far the season is reversing - - for cold weather looks to be having a hard time coming , if not for a chance toward the 27th of the month (as it looks now).