Subtle Pattern Shift / Different Outcomes Today & Wendesday

"Morning Thunderstorm at Sea"

TODAY: Subtle changes in the pattern of late could have significantly different results on the resultant peninsular weather today and tomorrow. Large low pressure aloft over the James Bay area (of  'Polar Vortex' fame) is acting as a bit of a semi-permanent feature apparently in the next week or so, more apparent over the Northeastern U.S. but also apparent at times over Florida in regard to how it affects the placement of the Atlantic Ridge axis latitudinally across Florida in the mid-levels of the atmosphere where storm steering direction is dictated.    

Latest guidance indicates increased moisture over South Florida but continued a bit  drier north of a Cedar Key to Ormond Beach line , especially closer to I-10 (the panhandle region) as a fairly deep short-wave trough rotates around the aforementioned low pressure area well to the north, shifting thusly the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south today. 

Likewise and in response,  the short range RAP/RUC model and the GFS as well say that a more certain SW Flow aloft will develop by late morning toward early afternoon and prevail through Wednesday. The latest RAP short-term model indicates also that anvil level winds might come from from the SW later today, but in any case, the tricky part will come concerning how soon west coast activity develops and where the anvil tops from  that said activity ends up at, as these will dictate who gets cloudy too early in the day after sea breezes commence . With only very slow storm motions toward the ENE-NE many immediately along either coast could end up dry or with only light rains but inland areas driven by boundary interactions might be able to overcome any overspreading cloud cover as plenty of instability should be able to amount with a sunny morning toward noon time period.

Radar and satellite imagery prior to sunrise are much quieter than the past few days, and where activity is now in place is at different locations than the past few days.

Cloud lines could set up quite early along the East or West Coast, which 'might' be something to watch for in regard to an early day shower, but that is strictly a small potential. The greater impacts as usual will be from mid-afternoon through early evening. Expect many areas to be considerably cloudy by late day regardless of where it does or does not rain today.

WEDNESDAY: A variation of today looks to be in play, time will tell.

THURSDAY: Another yet again variation of today with another pattern shift (transitional period) beginning to commence to a less active pattern for some areas, especially on the east side of the state.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: A few atmospheric dry slots and lifting of the Atlantic ridge axis northward will press storm activity westward for a few days as the Low Pressure area toward James Bay relaxes, but that is replaced by reinforcements sometime on Monday as it appears now), which will then change the weather pattern over Florida as well (*see Monday - Wednesday next week).

Storm Top Casts a Shadow on Surrounding CLoud Coverage at Sunrise

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK: Back to a variation of the pattern that will be in place today and tomorrow as the the low pressure trough deepens over Eastern Canada and shunts the ridge axis back south again, resulting in a west to east steering flow as opposed to east to the west of Friday through Sunday.

Early Onset of Showers/Thunder Possible South Spreading North/Inland

"Sunrise Sateen" 

TODAY: No point really in beating a dead weather pattern, as little change is noted in general from yesterday. Very little in the way of land breeze at time with light and variables abounding in the wind department most areas. A cluster of showers with some audible long lasting rumblings from off the east coast developed before 5AM as skies were rapidly clearing over the  peninsula. With a good sunny start to the day, ample heating and plentiful moisture forecast with Precipitable Water (PWAT) at 2.00" or more over Central Florida showers could get going over Southeast Florida by late morning toward noon (if not sooner) and spread northward along the incoming sea breeze front with other showers developing along the west coast sea breeze. 

Guidance has been showing though that 700mb temperatures might be slightly warmer today , but when all is said and done the primary things to watch for is localized 'flooding' in poorer drainage areas (esp. where it has already poured in said areas in the previous two days).  With such high atmospheric moisture content and little in convective inhibition, suspect that any decaying shower will leave a cloud debris field intact, resulting in a clouding up pretty quickly through mid afternoon in many areas. The area most likely to receive a stronger storm or longer lasting heavy downpour will be an inland location that is last to cloud up and therefore destabilize the most and would by and large also be the location where the sea breezes are most likely to meet.

POSSIBLE locations where heavier rainfall totals could occur today or a stronger storm or two could occur (that would be after 3-4pm)

 
TUESDAY: Only a slight variation of today with activity having a progressively more difficult time reaching the immediate east coast beaches (the Barrier Islands of Brevard for example) as steering weakens and early onset of sea breezes both coasts commences. Tuesday could still be wet in many locations though, but with the more obvious synoptic scale change not really occurring until late Wednesday into Thursday.

BEYOND: So far, Friday through Monday appears could be a different story from the past weekend for the far east side, that being, much more dry with early onset of sea breezes and cooler as a result, at least at the beach, as the surface ridge axis shifts toward North Florida closer to I-10 as opposed to being located along the latitudes of Lake Okeechobee.  Additionally it appears that in this more easterly flow coming up, chances of some 'dry slots' will be more prevalent, resulting in day or so of much restricted activity favoring inland (isolated) and toward the west side of the state.

" Our Ship Has Come In "

Similar Pattern To Saturday, Pattern Breaks Down More Late Tuesday

"You Got A Problem with That?"

TODAY: If you had a problem with yesterday's weather over parts of Florida in the rain department (or even if it was dry), then you might have a problem with today, as the pattern looks similar. Weak low pressure circulation through the mid levels over the far NE Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Southeast continues with the ridge axis suppressed somewhat to the south and east of Central Florida, with an axis running across Lake Okeechobee. Winds are already southeast over far southeast Florida which should prevent thunder from affecting the far Southeast area in the afternoon.  Skies this morning appear per infra-red satellite imagery to be rapidly clearing in many areas during the past hour or two over many areas prior to sunrise. 

The better chances will be where greater moisture and a WSW-SW steering flow exists south of I-10 and north of the north shores of "The Big Lake". Storm motions won't be strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze though, which became quite strong as far as sea breezes go yesterday afternoon, at least across Brevard county, where white caps were on the ocean once it fully set it.

Most activity that is on the 'stronger side' will be along to west of I-95 more than likely, but could propagate back toward the east coast late, and possibly repeat what occurred last night, especially after and as the sea breeze relaxes and begins to retreat back to the east and offshore.

Images from 530AM Shows Rainstorm clusters moving away from the coast and rapid clearing

BEYOND: One more day of a 'similar pattern' (but not exactly), but by Tuesday things will change to prevent most east coast areas to received late day rains.

 It also appears a tropical wave well east of Cuba could circulate around the ridge building in by that day, and could bring a boost to moisture across South Florida (at least), but time will tell, it does show up on satellite imagery, and the GFS hints at a moisture increase mainly across South Florida this day, which would mostly impact SW-W Florida late in the day.

Otherwise, most days will see activity restricted to the inland areas as steering is too weak no matter what direction it is from to offset sea breezes; where the sea - lake breezes meet in convectively favored areas will be where the best chances of rains to fall will occur. 

Possible Earlier Onset of Showers / Sea Breezes (Favoring East Side Late)

Like Angel Hair, Pileus Cloud Veils the Crown of a Towering Thunderhead

TODAY: A weak low pressure circulation will exist today near the Big Bend south to almost west of Tampa Bay along an old decaying frontal boundary trail partially responsible (in part) for the steering of Arthur the other day. This boundary  and low circulation will be in place on Sunday as well,  the circulation  possibly   moving to the east side off JAX by the end of the day then up the U.S. east coast. 

Otherwise, little aloft has changed with southwest winds  at the 'storm steering' elevation. The surface ridge axis has lifted a bit further north today which will allow the East Coast sea breeze to form sooner than yesterday (by noon-1pm).  Already, some showers are off Tampa Bay and others exist well off to the east of Volusia County which are moving away to the northeast. Often, when showers are near Tampa Bay before sunrise, that is a sign of earlier shower/storm onset elsewhere. Cloud cover probably won't be as prevalent over as many parts of the state at sunrise as was the case yesterday.
With plenty of precipitable water in the atmosphere, could end up being quite a bit of 'debris clouds' hanging around once the day gets rolling which could offset storm formation in several areas that normally might otherwise see them, but by days end, a lot of populace could end up getting wet one way or the other. 

Other than where some strange boundary mergers might occur over interior South Florida or over East Central closer to the east coast, (or further north along the Suwannee River Basin toward JAX)  most storms should be mostly a lightning threat with some heavy downpours and localized brief 'flooding' in a few prone areas (for mostly  activity after 4pm).

Singe Cell Storm works North up the East Coast Sea Breeze over "The Cape"

SUNDAY: Little change from today. Sunday appears to be a variation of SATURDAY with the steering from west to east beginning to weaken , making for even slower storm motions but with ample atmospheric moisture, should be a pretty good coverage except toward South Florida east side where the sea breeze might keep that area 'cleanly scoured out'.

BEYOND: Normal afternoon/evening thunderstorm and shower regime mainly away from the coasts with many days ending in overcast conditions due to storm debris clouds lingering from late afternoon to after midnight.

Ocean Waves on the Fourth of July  

Chance of "Enhanced" Storms East Side and South Later Today

Holiday Beach Goers Should Be Aware of the Lighting Potential Today

TODAY: Holiday Weekend in store with a brief post since not much change from what was written in the posts of the past two days. Sea breeze expected to form south of Vero Beach today, and perhaps one will form as far north as Cape Canaveral but be delayed until mid afternoon. There is a sharp moisture gradient in the mid-levels per the RAP model and cloud cover seems to confirm it, and satellite visible imagery does seem to show this boundary running across Central Florida as well.

Chance of stronger storms where the moisture gradient from more to much less moist is coincident with a land/sea breeze merger over East Central somewhere from North Brevard to as far south as Vero or even West Palm Beach where the drier air is more fully entrenched.   Looks like an earlier onset of showers/storms today but the far east side of the state north of West Palm might see in general a much later 'atmospheric performance' than the inland counterparts. Showers could dwindle into the Fireworks hours, or as merely cloudy cover with or without some light rain in a few locations.

WEEKEND: Only real change from previous is that a more SW Flow aloft is now back in the equation , but this might be questionable namely because the latest run of the GFS did a horrible time of analysing the track of Arthur and it is that model guidance mainly that is being utilized. The trend seems to be that even if steering is toward the east side of the state, it will be so slow that the bulk of activity would remain east of or near I-95 and inland and away from either the immediate west of east coasts except maybe north of or near Daytona Beach. For the most part, the I-4 and Florida Turnpike remains the favored areas with cloud cover overspreading many areas on the more active days toward sunset contingent up on which direction anvil level winds are blowing...though with a  weak SW flow into perhaps Wednesday, some activity might be able to make it back to the east coast, late. The chance of morning offshore waterspouts east coast  might still be in the equation on Sunday morning, but that's a long shot.

"Arthur Ashes" To Generate Showers/Thunder Today - Very Warm Most Areas

TODAY: Tropical Storm (soon to be hurricane more than likely) Arthur well on its way out, threatening the easternmost portions of North Carolina primarily, though strongest winds appear will remain offshore for the most part on the eastern flanks. Otherwise, over Florida the storm is leaving a string of surface/low level boundaries and vorticity which trails the whole way across the state to as far west as North Mexico.

Do not expect a sea breeze most anywhere except perhaps South Florida. West winds could bring an extra kick to high temperatures today even to the beaches, but cloud cover onset might come a bit early (and be tough in clearing in some areas), and thus this might offset what could be even warmer temperatures. The GFS primarily is calling for cooling upper level temperatures going into mid-afternoon though the RAP (short term model) and NAM (North American Model) show otherwise. This is important for storm strength (colder aloft is more favorable for stronger storms, namely in the wind department in this particular situation today). Suspect we could see some stronger winds ahead of and along the leading edge of some activity today with frequent lightning, but today will not be a 'normal' Florida summer thunderstorm day given lack of sea breezes and the proximity of Arthur and it's remnant 'ashes'.

 

FOURTH OF JULY FRIDAY: Continues to look like there is more of a chance for stronger storms over the East Half of the state late Friday afternoon with a near side shore seabreeze component working the east side. Perhaps some stronger storms in the climatologically favored  Sanford - Daytona - Port St John triangle region, but that is only a guess this early in time. We will need to see if more boundaries remain from Arthur tomorrow (and suspect some will). There is a chance that some areas might be fretting about fireworks displays somewhere in the state with some activity lingering past dark. Additionally, if the GFS forecast holds any 'precipitable water' in truth, earlier afternoon onset of activity inland progressing eastward might put a damper of afternoon outdoor activities in some locations.

Directly Related to Arthur on Wednesday Morning, Looking north toward Port Canaveral at Sunrise

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: One or both days, very light morning winds (to calm) and clearer skies could result in showers forming close to the coast or existing just offshore the coasts. Saturday morning looked primarily favorable for near shore waterspout formation per the GFS forecast sounding with less than 5 kts of wind from the surface up through nearly 10,000 feet almost anywhere. Time will tell. Sunday pretty much the same deal. Storms should be focusing primarily over the weekend days though come mid-late afternoon away from the beaches and a bit toward the west half of the state, particularly around the other climatologically favored area, Tampa Bay.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Thunderstorms continue each day in the mid-late afternoon to early evening mainly away from the coasts. The favored area now appears to be along the I-4 and Florida Turnpike zones with  low level and mid level ridge axis' over Central Florida and extreme northern parts of South Central. Only minor variations to this pattern are in store at this point in time (at least per the GFS) through mid week next week.  

Chance of Squally Showers as Arthur Exits Today

  "Rainstorm"

TODAY: Very little change in reasoning from yesterday's post. As presumed, shower/storm activity was at a minimum yesterday over East Central Florida although some areas were getting the showers, coverage was small. Today might have a better 'coverage' chance as a trailing trough from Arthur now about 75-95 miles East of Melbourne at 5AM works north. Suspect now, that with some daytime heating (with sunrise )..shower activity will begin to activate along unseen boundaries already in place as spokes around Arthur. The better chance these will move onshore or generate showers over land are over the North Half of the state, with another into South Central or South Florida. Winds have already swung around to a westerly component as opposed to North- NNE of yesterday in Arthur's cyclonic (counter -clockwise) circulation. Temperatures aloft are pretty warm for thunder chances, so the best chance of thunder would be over the panhandle where they are forecast to be a bit colder. Otherwise, winds could get quite gusty in the vicinity and in the first portions of any rain shower or rainstorm ('squall') if they can manage to get going.

'Better Chance' for Squally like Rains in Yellow Today (Wednesday)

THURSDAY -  "The 4Th" : Better chance of thunder on Thursday but more so on The Fourth of July, Friday . Models are showing a trail of vorticity stretching from Arthur to across Central or South Central Florida for several days.  This 'energy' trails the whole way back into North Central Mexico  (completely across the entire Gulf of Mexico). Colder air aloft could provide the impetus for thunder, but suspect we might have a hard time with it on Thursday since we might not experience an east coast sea breeze.

Possible Strong Storms on the Fourth of July favoring interior to the east side of the state.

WEEKEND: Continued chances of showers and thunder. It appears steering will become light and sea breezes might be slow in starting up each morning. Possible showers/thunder very close to the coasts at time looks possible in the late mornings to early afternoon, then working inland during the day as temperatures aloft remain 'cool' and light winds allow the normal summer geographically induced circulations to come into play which activate thunderstorms and showers in the presence of ample instability and atmospheric moisture.



BEYOND: Next week shows a shift in storm coverage favoring interior toward the west side for several days, but with a small chance of coastal showers popping up, particularly around sunrise to mid morning until the sea breeze kicks in along the east coast.

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast To Make a Near Pass at The Cape Overnight

TODAY: ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---- LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA


ARTHUR is expected to remain just to the east of Florida, making a near pass at The Cape area overnight into early tomorrow morning. All official information is being relayed by the NWS out of Melbourne , Florida and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It appears that with the Tropical Storm Watch in affect for the coastal waters though, that the main impacts as noted yesterday, will be for marine interests. Latest radar is showing some activity well offshore rotating around the center but remaining off shore as of 12:30pm. The storm appears to be moving slowly toward the WNW-W at around 2 mph and little change in forward speed or track is anticipated in the next 12 hours. This 'could' conceivably bring some activity on shore mainly to Brevard/Indian River Counties late today, though most model guidance shows that direct rains will mainly remain offshore (until Wednesday).  

 

WEDNESDAY: The bigger rainfall impacts could (might) occur after sunrise from late morning through afternoon as shown above in the green in association with a trailing low level trough extending from Arthur. The storm is definitely bottom heavy and has been for over 24 hours, with the crux of activity as can be seen above, south of the Center. The  worst case scenario in the rainfall dept. is shown by GFS to be for parts of East Central Florida (Brevard) tomorrow with the Center in that particular model directly east of Cape Canaveral at sunrise by approximately 50-75 miles. That is only one model though, Regardless, the stronger winds are to be east and northeast of the Center. Must say though, as of 12:30pm, radar animation appears to show the storm to be moving almost directly west at the current time.

BEYOND: A return to more 'normal' summer like weather with thunderstorms possible toward the Interior and East Coast for a few days as the Atlantic Ridge axis builds in across South Central to Central Florida.

 

'Normal" Summerlike Weather Could Return by Thursday, Meanwhile..."

Sunrise Surprise

TODAY- TUESDAY: If one is at all interested in the weather across the east 1/2 of Florida then you'll be aware of a low pressure area offshore the east coast approximately 125-150 NM east of Melbourne which is very slowly moving just west of due south this afternoon. This system combined with high pressure to the west has thoroughly disrupted the normal afternoon thunderstorms/sea breeze pattern across the state. Many areas will remain dry today, perhaps more so than usual other than over parts of  South Central and South Florida outside of some paltry showers that could come on shore mainly near Volusia to Brevard county later in the afternoon. (note, any shower moving onshore will likely contain very gusty winds) . 

Where the low moves will have direct bearing on the weather over the next 48 hours. The closer the low moves to the state, the greater the chances of rain. Guidance varies vastly, if the NAM model verifies, most everyone for the most part remains dry while the low remains too far to the east. If the GFS verifies, then the area mainly from Southern Volusian and south through Martin county could get over 2"" of rainfall by the time Tuesday evening is over with. Take your pic...

2:15PM Melbourne, Florida radar, courtesy of weathertap.com. Red arrows show possible motion of low (shown with the red "L") The little white pointers shows the direct of shower/thunderstorm motion today

 

Visible Satellite Image, showing the bloggers 'cone of error' of where this little low could end up in the near term

Most models agree this low  which is TINY TINY TINY  (at present time) could grow into a  tropical storm east of South Carolina for the most part. As seen above the GFS brings the low very close to Cape Canaveral late Tuesday (purple arrow), another model actually brings it in as a very weak system , finally carrying it off to the north, and yet another model does something in between. Who really knows? (other purple arrow , models show remaining well offshore).  But in all cases, this low 'should' be out of the picture on Wednesday, and by Thursday we would return to business as usual. The next question though would be if dry air will get entrained across the state of Florida here or there in days to come. There again, is disagreement.

THE NHC outlook at 2pm reads:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,
Florida.  Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and only a slight increase in organization would result
in the formation of a tropical depression.  This system is moving
southwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast.  A
turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance.  If this system becomes
a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for
portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Sun Rising on the last day of June 2014 behind Showers
Related to a Tropical Low Offshore

BEYOND: Do note that the NWS, the National Hurricane Center, and Emergency Management are all 'Eye'-ing this system off the FLorida east coast for possible surprisingly big impacts. If the GFS does verify parts of the East Coast regions could receive  over 3"rainfall. At this time, not hedging any bets on it. This system will be of marine interests primarily throughout it's duration as it appears now.

Whispy Pileus Atop Comulus Congestus Rainshower Over the Atlantic 

More Forecast Questions Than Answers Through Tuesday

TODAY - TUESDAY: Best watch what goes on to the east of Florida, for until we know what happens with a low pressure off shore which might develop into a tropical low pressure system (depression or storm at some point), the forecast for Florida will be nearly impossible to know in advance until we know which way it moves. Most model guidance agrees it will drop south just a bit more and then retrograde toward the East Central Coast to offshore Brevard or Indian River County. A few models bring it right into Brevard County in the next 48 hours whereas others leave it off shore. This will have a big impact mainly in the rain department , in regard to how much, when , why, and where it will rain...coming into later tonight through Tuesday or even Wednesday.  

That is not to say that the system couldn't go stationery off shore even longer than any of the models indicate, but for now, it appears no matter where it ends up in 48 hours, agreement is that it lifts north and east generally tracing the U.S. East Coast. The better agreement comes in the extended. Once the low departs the SE. U.S. (assuming it does in the next 72 hours), high pressure ridge to build in across South Florida in general putting most of the state in  a SW or W flow aloft, which favors the east side for thunderstorms later in the day once we return to status quo for summer.

TODAY: Chance of a few isolated stronger storms after 6pm through 9 pm as shown. Though it does not look like there will be a good sea breeze convergence today, therefore, anything 'strong' might be hard to come by especially since temperatures aloft have warmed a bit and we need cold air aloft to generate the stronger activity. Most rains will fall today along to west of I-95, though will watch for some coastal showers possibly to impinge upon east central toward or after dark and overnight depending on what happens with the low.

:NOTE: The more wrapped up (or stronger /organized) any low pressure will get to the east of Florida, the drier the forecast becomes (unless it actually moves fully on shore). 

A Very Isolated, Potentially Severe Storm or Two Possible

Storm Moves into Cape Canaveral on Monday Afternoon

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday and in advance, so far not much change is in store for tomorrow either. High pressure in the lower levels continues to hover off SW Florida and is forecast to 'bubble around' the far Eastern Gulf and possibly migrate toward North Florida in the next few days.
Being on the right descendant side of this high pressure is resulting in dryer mid level air under the current circumstances and more of a north to south storm motion set up, at least for the north half of the state. 

'Mourning' model data and soundings shows a mixed bag of dry and moist air in different levels of the atmosphere but various locations have the moisture in different areas as well, with a fairly uniform PWAT (precipitable water) spread though deceiving; regardless, none of this looks particularly favorable for anything but isolated activity. Temperatures at the KSC site were cold in the upper levels and so-so further down for more vigorous storm activity, but would be conducive for strong wind gusts and small hail. As of the latest, the RAP Mesoscale Analysis combination was showing the best likelihood for larger hail over Central Florida but this will likely shift or could dissipate entirely by this afternoon. Looks like an  atypical, on the dry side, type of Florida summer day, but  one which could produce  'Big" where something does happen.  

The 'graphic' per this armchair position is not much different than yesterday other than to note that activity has a slower start near Cedar Key  today than previous days had and thatan outflow boundary is showing up on visible satellite animations which could put a kick in the west coast sea breeze north of Tampa Bay (TBW) in the next few hours. Given other conditions notwithstanding the 'Central FLorida Curse" of a moisture bald spot over part of South Central at one level, and another dry slot over North Central, it'll all come down to the late afternoon sea breeze/lake breeze and coastal helicity with moderately high Cape Play as to where initial and true growth will occur.

BEYOND:  A bit drier than normal appears to be in the cards for the next several days, with the only possible real change in some of the GFS runs and the ECMWF run coming about later in the weekend or toward the first three days of next week. Until then, the day by day (as usual) conundrums with  arm flailing and  "Facepalm  guess-casts"  continues.

Storms Today, But Where

"Storm and Attendant Arcus Cloud Formation Rolls into Central Brevard County Monday Afternoon"

TODAY: Very tricky blog post from the armchair's perspective today. Latest short term RAP guidance and other models available are showing sparse on the rain chances today most areas except mainly North and far South Florida. The latest RAP (RUC) model and associated output on the Mesoscale Analysis page shows a huge dry socket over South Central to South Florida though sounding data isn't exactly confirming this per MIA's (Miami) forecast discussion. Sea breezes will again come into play today with steering from almost  the due west to east or perhaps a slight ESE motion from the WNW. 

If activity goes up early on the sea breeze some areas might be scoured (stabilized) early on toward the beaches for any substantial rainfall later today, but as is oft the case in the summer, the true storms probably won't get cranking until after the 4:30 - 5pm time frame (at least).  Given the dry mid level air discrepancies, any storms that can get going particularly over the south half could have some hefty wind gusts and the always present threat of lightning well removed from the rain field. 

 A few  radar images (below) show the evolution of what occurred over East Central Florida yesterday as a storm from near MLB (Melbourne)and another further north toward The KSC worked toward each other and merged. Another storm then forms and moves toward Daytona Beach. (see bottom of post).

TOMORROW into WEEKEND: On the other hand, so far today is shown to be the 'driest' most possible day on a Central or even statewide basis if the GFS holds true which is always questionable. High pressure near the Keys is forecast to lift northwest putting the state in more of a northerly steering, but on the other hand a bubble low could also form going toward the weekend near JAX (Jacksonville) and drop south. These features are all very weak though, but will make a significant difference on where it rains and why coming into the weekend which so far is looking a bit 'wet' afternoon wise, though that could easily change after a few more model runs.

BELOW: Storm moving in. Radar Sample, Image A below shows two separate storms conjoining to Image B over East Central Florida yesterday afternoon.

'CONJOINED TWINS'

IMAGE A

IMAGE B

Small Chance of Briefly Strong Storms near East Coast

Jetty Park in Cape Canaveral this Morning

TODAY: Little change from previous posts (again), but as would be the case  each day ( though the overall pattern looks pretty much the same)  like snowflakes, is exactly the same as the one before and the one after despite that conditions are favorable for snow, in this case, rain. Little dry slots that seem to shift on a whim and few discernible local boundaries are in play today other than the east coast sea breeze as far north at least as North Brevard could aid in low level convergence and greater upward mobility along that boundary mainly east of I-95.

Storm motions are from the west to just south of west toward the east in general today outside of any outside fluke events as a result of outward moving boundaries from collapsing rain showers as they migrate across the state. The west coast sea breeze has already begun its trek eastward and is approaching the center of the state as of 1pm.

Small chance some storms, though 'very' isolated, could be stronger than the norm near east coast.
Watching South Florida though later today as well, though moisture is a bit low down there today at least as of this morning

 

BEYOND: The GFS show almost no change tomorrow from that of today, as does Wednesday. The question will be where the moisture is most available outside of other mitigating circumstances like early day cloud cover and dry slots .  No real big changes can be seen within the next week outside of what is presently being shown like the past few days have been, yet each day has a mind of its own and will vary (this has been noted in the past, take it as it comes).

Just Cruisin '