Showers/Thunder Possible Almost Anywhere

Storms Lining Up Near Vero Beach as Seen
Looking South from Cape Canaveral on Saturday

TODAY: Looks like the 12Z GFS of Saturday (and most other models) were incorrect regarding the first half of today as the day is not starting out with near calm winds (esp. along the east coast). Winds this morning have failed to die down and are from the SE up through at least 5000 ft if not higher (OR SO IT WAS thought); however, per latest RAP/NAM and GFS, those winds are to shift to a more southerly to SSW direction by mid morning through early afternoon aloft until we work through mid-afternoon. 

A quick check out side since the beginning of this typing and latest surface observations show that the wind shifted in the past hour and is now from the southwest along the coast of East Central, which means that the models referred to above might actually have something going for them. Onshore winds have switched to off shore within an hour of sunrise.

It's really only an exercise in futility in the long run though, so will keep the post brief. The net effect (if the model guidance is correct) would be for showers and some thunder to be able to form close to the east coast, especially from near Vero/Ft Pierce and North toward the Cape after 11AM up through early afternoon and then work inland, much like yesterday. There is the potential for storms to hang back closer toward the coast over Central to South Central as well a bit longer than yesterday if the guidance is correct, but overall, today might end up not a whole lot different than yesterday when 5pm rolls around.

The Notes Spell It Out,  Lower than Usual Confidence for Today (noted)

The only difference so far (given it is still quite early in the morning and much could change when the next model runs come out) is it is even more difficult to find any particular area for late afternoon that appears more favorable for  'more robust activity' than any other area. 

The area that is latest to be 'turned over' by cloud cover and/or rainfall is more than likely to be the area that will end up having the most electrically charged storms with stronger wind gusts possible (and that would seem to be somewhere around the Polk County north into Lake County and perhaps Western Volusia County zones up toward Ocala and along the west side of the Suwannee River Basin (not forgetting anywhere along I-10).  

MONDAY: Transitional day, looking very 'typical' with mainly inland storms but working closer to the east coast near and north of I-4 (Volusia), though inevitably the finer details which can make a big difference at times will need to be looked at again "Come Monday".

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: No change to previous reasoning of the past several posts.  SW flow aloft would enable activity to come much closer to East Coast Communities, who might hope for some rainfall, as it looks like by Friday into early or much of next week, those areas might end up lacking in the rainfall category. The flow does not look strong enough to preclude the east coast sea breeze though except possibly from Central Volusia County and north.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND  Deeper easterly flow so far is being indicated to last for 4-6 days to commence Friday after noon time, though we have now entered the realm of  impossibilities, esp. in regard to how long the more easterly flow will last.

Beach Goers  Spared of having to abandon ship
Who Moved the Rockies East?

Unlike.... 4 days ago

Lottery-Like Rain Chances Most Likely Inland

"Mirrors of Yesterday"

...and tomorrow...your ship comes in....

TODAY: The 'dry slot' noted in yesterday's blog post never really cleared the area of Central Florida as it moved in (thus, no rains showers at present time) as the GFS showed would occur, but is in the process of 'filling' in from the north and from the south, but mostly it appears on animations from satellite imagery from the east. The drier air is mainly in the lower portions of the mid levels and would therefore delay convection timing across Central/South Central from yesterday when some had already occurred by this time yesterday. The KSC sounding was showing a convective temperature which has already been passed  hours ago, and a CAP strength of 4 which is quite high and difficult to break under the circumstances  -  more moisture, boundary collisions, and greater instability will be essential to surpass that threshold which should be possible by later today; however by that time, the sea breeze on the east coast would be at least as far inland as I-95 (supposedly as climatology goes at least). Steering is close to "Nil" today (as upper level winds across Central at least are being dictated by the near zero point of the ridge axis. South Florida has a much greater East to West steering gradient in place.  

 There could be some greater concentrations in a few select
 areas of 'the more active type' , late today. But isolated cases does not necessarily mean weaker

SUNDAY:  The GFS forecast sounding (Global Forecast System model) for tomorrow morning across Central at least is hilarious, with winds at near 25,000 ft close to  0 (zero) mph. and below, less than 5 kts from a general southerly direction. It is showing two strips of greater atmospheric moisture, one almost directly over where it currently is most dry ( near Central Florida) and another over North Florida. The ridge axis across Florida should begin to slowly creep south in response to the 'Arguably debatable Polar-non-Polar 'Vortex'" which has been more trouble than it's worth to discuss, as that 'area in SE Canada, deepens southward, also bringing a cold front through much of the country which is becoming weather headlines in some areas (of bad news for some around the Great Lakes, but good news for those wanting to save on A/C billings).

In any case, tomorrow looks to be the transition day as is part of Monday leading into Tuesday - Thursday which will be a new story for all of Florida in regard to storm motions. These days will be problematic though, as it is now being shown that all things are not created equal when it comes to moisture distribution in a rather weak southwest flow aloft. For those in need of rain on the beaches, this might be the better time period chance to receive some.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Shift change, updates forth-coming on a daily basis as steering is more deliberately from the SW, but weak enough not to off set east coast sea breezes except perhaps north of I-4.

BEYOND: Too soon to be definitive, but it does look at least like a return to NIL flow or even a pressing toward the west side will be in the offing at some point going into next weekend.

The Moon Sets- Sun Rise

Horse Latitudes, Doldrums, or The Dog Days?

"Oh Thank Heaven for 7/11"  - On this day last year (Cape Canaveral on 528 Cswy) 

TODAY: The looming dry-slot to the East of Florida advertised a few days ago and has been a thorn in some NWS forecasters sides per forecast discussions to affect the weather over Central Florida on Saturday (perhaps?) is working its way into South Florida as we type or read.

Lower PWAT air (Precipitable Water) is shown as of 5AM.
It is only working very slowly westward  and will fill to some degree with time

For the most part...today looks much like yesterday at first glance other than the dry slot which will primarily be affecting the weather over Southeast Coastal Florida during daylight hours. What remains of it could enter East Central during the overnight , but be out of the area by noon on Saturday (which is a change in the thinking from the last time this was referred to in a blog post).

See  See the Difference between the Horse Latitudes and The Doldrums here

TODAY: The big question for today for one area of interest is mainly East Central Florida prior to 3pm time frame. The NAM model (which is seldom trusted lately) but also the GFS indicate a chance of showers from mid-morning into the afternoon from near Cape Canaveral and north. Despite that the low level ridge axis lifts north of the area, the upper level winds are more southerly yet extremely light. This could in effect result in reformation of showers closer to the coast as a result of outflow from activity just to the west of the coast, but not so sure model guidance has the local weather so pegged to that degree. Otherwise, the more favorable areas for typically more 'predictable' thunder activity appears to be along the west coast later in the day.

Today might be a day of  'curious anomalies' thus the zone in question. Latest forecast RAP model soundings shows conditions favorable again for waterspouts (one was spotted off South Cocoa Beach during the early evening hours from a line of towering culumus showers right near sunset regardless of strong onshore sea breeze winds on the beaches).  Winds aloft are forecast so light in the RAP (not so much the GLobal Forecast System - GFS) , that at 2PM today one is hard pressed to find winds stronger than 5 kts clear up to 20,000 ft . With ample moisture to be near a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 2.00" north and west of the dry slot and such light winds and assuming the high clouds currently seen streaming in from the NE into parts of this area might dissipate, almost anything could (or could not) happen. The forecast is for those winds to change direction and therefore put an end to the high clouds.

SATURDAY: Again, guidance has shifted gears and is no longer calling for a flat out 'free day' from the rains in many areas. Steering could be more SW (but again extremely light) over mainly North Central  which would allow some storms to generate close to the east coast through mid afternoon at least. This is July for you though.  The best bet at this conjuncture is perhaps showers along the Intracoastal prior to 1pm and working inland with the incoming strengthening east coast sea breeze, though if yesterday was any indicator, it might not fully manifest until very late in the afternoon which changes many things for those of interest at the beaches and for boating activities primarily.

View from a Previously Severe Warned Storm as it Approached
Canaveral Hospital (lower left) on Wednesday 

FOREGOING SUNDAY for now as Saturday might be a good pre-curse-ing indicator of what will occur Sunday.

See Some Various Notions on Why the Dog Days?

MONDAY-THURSDAY: A fairly unusual 'cool bout' to impact much of the nation as the next lobe of energy rounds the 'Infamous Polar Vortex' region deepening the upper level trough over the eastern 1/3 of the country, and thus propelling  a cold front southward across much of the country and well into the Deep South with low mornings temperatures in many areas in the 50Fs range or even some upper 40Fs.

 Florida will avoid the cold temperatures, but the net effect noted previously will be to put the state in SW flow aloft which will favor the interior and east side for afternoon thunderstorms under the pretense that dry air will not be entrained into this flow. Earlier indications were that a few of these days could be 'early onset' days for rains, but it's too early in this stage to make that call with much certainty.

Atmospheric Limp Wet Rag, Very Like July

"Lone Cabbage Fish Camp on Wednesday Evening"

TODAY: if the atmosphere was but a limp wet rag, today is just about like one with winds less than 10 kts all the way to nearly the jet stream level and variable in direction. With little steering to speak of, some areas could get a a large amount of rainfall today while nearby others remain dry. Suspect more areas will be dry as opposed to wet but cloud coverage will increase especially away from the coasts as the day wears on. Storm motion will be 'close to non-existent' (very slow) but  forward propagation along outflow boundaries, cloud lines, and lake/sea breezes will provide for more of an apparent motion.  Conditions are actually good for waterspout formation near to just off shore should towering clouds find the opportunity to present themselves in any given area earlier in the day.

It could rain/thunder almost anywhere, this graphic is showing perhaps where activity will be most focused  after 4pm 

Severe Thunderstorm over the boggy swamps east of  'OIA'

TOMORROW/WEEKEND: No change in thinking from previous few posts. Most activity will remain away from the coasts once the sea breezes commence, though steering in any one direction is no longer an option, today appears to be more reflective of future days rather than either coast (side of the state) being significantly more favored than another (or apparently so).

Same Storm Closer Up

BEYOND: No changes until around Monday -Wednesday or perhaps Thursday when another trough deepens over the eastern U.S. and presses the Atlantic Ridge axis which is now generally across Central Florida back to the South for a few days resulting in a bit more of  a west to east storm motion, or at least propagation tendency..

Same Storm attempting to reach the coast by dying out in the process 

Heavy Rain/Frequent Lightning 'Creeping Charlie' Storms Possible Today

"A Couple Caught in The Storm on Wednesday"

TODAY: As noted in the previous post, today would look much like yesterday with some minor exceptions. The sky is remarkably cloud free over a large diagonal swath of the state as of 11AM, otherwise some shower and thunder activity off the west coast and SE Florida are the harbingers of things to come by mid-late afternoon into early evening. Since little has changed in any of the parameters of notable nature and winds aloft are nearly unchanged, expect again with good heating for a thermal heat low to form near Lake Okeechobee to encompass the inland area of the South Half of the peninsula as sea breezes from both coasts work inland. It is in general in that area that the rains 'could theoretically' focus their attention on early this evening. Whether activity will arise near or on the incoming east coast sea breeze as close to the Cape Canaveral/Kennedy area as was the case yesterday is unknown but is not shown to occur today. The hot spot could end up being near Vero Beach along the east coast sea breeze/Lake Okeechobee (The Big Lake) breeze intersect in Martin / St. Lucie County areas.

The area that is most clear as of 11AM might end up the most wet by day's end

Though steering is from the west/southwest it is only about 10 kts or less, which is close to negligible, thus most storm apparent motions will more be due to propagation along boundaries of various sorts such as lake breezes/ the sea breezes/and outflow boundaries, as well as where any pre-existent boundaries might remain from yesterday.  In general then, the storms will act almost as unpredictably as creeping charlie over taking a well manicured lawn  with the 'weeds' taking the path of least resistance to areas most favorable for further growth.

THURSDAY:  The 06z run of the Global Forecast System (at least) has shifted its tune slightly for future days. It no longer was so absolute  about forcing activity Thursday through Sunday completely to the west side of the state but seemed to be raising a middle ground with a more southerly to light and variable flow pattern which favored just about anywhere in the mid-late afternoon to early evening away from the coasts (however, the 06z run can have some notoriously off kilter output, so this is questionable) . There still appears one day might be a tad drier than the others and that one is Saturday (somewhere over South Central Florida perhaps).

Otherwise, guidance sticks to another stronger vort lob to rotate around the low pressure area in the "Polar Vortex" region of Eastern Canada which  will deepen it southward and thus shunt the Atlantic Ridge axis south resulting in a more west to east steering come Monday through Wednesday of next week (toward the east coast for late day activity once again).

Subtle Pattern Shift / Different Outcomes Today & Wendesday

"Morning Thunderstorm at Sea"

TODAY: Subtle changes in the pattern of late could have significantly different results on the resultant peninsular weather today and tomorrow. Large low pressure aloft over the James Bay area (of  'Polar Vortex' fame) is acting as a bit of a semi-permanent feature apparently in the next week or so, more apparent over the Northeastern U.S. but also apparent at times over Florida in regard to how it affects the placement of the Atlantic Ridge axis latitudinally across Florida in the mid-levels of the atmosphere where storm steering direction is dictated.    

Latest guidance indicates increased moisture over South Florida but continued a bit  drier north of a Cedar Key to Ormond Beach line , especially closer to I-10 (the panhandle region) as a fairly deep short-wave trough rotates around the aforementioned low pressure area well to the north, shifting thusly the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south today. 

Likewise and in response,  the short range RAP/RUC model and the GFS as well say that a more certain SW Flow aloft will develop by late morning toward early afternoon and prevail through Wednesday. The latest RAP short-term model indicates also that anvil level winds might come from from the SW later today, but in any case, the tricky part will come concerning how soon west coast activity develops and where the anvil tops from  that said activity ends up at, as these will dictate who gets cloudy too early in the day after sea breezes commence . With only very slow storm motions toward the ENE-NE many immediately along either coast could end up dry or with only light rains but inland areas driven by boundary interactions might be able to overcome any overspreading cloud cover as plenty of instability should be able to amount with a sunny morning toward noon time period.

Radar and satellite imagery prior to sunrise are much quieter than the past few days, and where activity is now in place is at different locations than the past few days.

Cloud lines could set up quite early along the East or West Coast, which 'might' be something to watch for in regard to an early day shower, but that is strictly a small potential. The greater impacts as usual will be from mid-afternoon through early evening. Expect many areas to be considerably cloudy by late day regardless of where it does or does not rain today.

WEDNESDAY: A variation of today looks to be in play, time will tell.

THURSDAY: Another yet again variation of today with another pattern shift (transitional period) beginning to commence to a less active pattern for some areas, especially on the east side of the state.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: A few atmospheric dry slots and lifting of the Atlantic ridge axis northward will press storm activity westward for a few days as the Low Pressure area toward James Bay relaxes, but that is replaced by reinforcements sometime on Monday as it appears now), which will then change the weather pattern over Florida as well (*see Monday - Wednesday next week).

Storm Top Casts a Shadow on Surrounding CLoud Coverage at Sunrise

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK: Back to a variation of the pattern that will be in place today and tomorrow as the the low pressure trough deepens over Eastern Canada and shunts the ridge axis back south again, resulting in a west to east steering flow as opposed to east to the west of Friday through Sunday.

Early Onset of Showers/Thunder Possible South Spreading North/Inland

"Sunrise Sateen" 

TODAY: No point really in beating a dead weather pattern, as little change is noted in general from yesterday. Very little in the way of land breeze at time with light and variables abounding in the wind department most areas. A cluster of showers with some audible long lasting rumblings from off the east coast developed before 5AM as skies were rapidly clearing over the  peninsula. With a good sunny start to the day, ample heating and plentiful moisture forecast with Precipitable Water (PWAT) at 2.00" or more over Central Florida showers could get going over Southeast Florida by late morning toward noon (if not sooner) and spread northward along the incoming sea breeze front with other showers developing along the west coast sea breeze. 

Guidance has been showing though that 700mb temperatures might be slightly warmer today , but when all is said and done the primary things to watch for is localized 'flooding' in poorer drainage areas (esp. where it has already poured in said areas in the previous two days).  With such high atmospheric moisture content and little in convective inhibition, suspect that any decaying shower will leave a cloud debris field intact, resulting in a clouding up pretty quickly through mid afternoon in many areas. The area most likely to receive a stronger storm or longer lasting heavy downpour will be an inland location that is last to cloud up and therefore destabilize the most and would by and large also be the location where the sea breezes are most likely to meet.

POSSIBLE locations where heavier rainfall totals could occur today or a stronger storm or two could occur (that would be after 3-4pm)

 
TUESDAY: Only a slight variation of today with activity having a progressively more difficult time reaching the immediate east coast beaches (the Barrier Islands of Brevard for example) as steering weakens and early onset of sea breezes both coasts commences. Tuesday could still be wet in many locations though, but with the more obvious synoptic scale change not really occurring until late Wednesday into Thursday.

BEYOND: So far, Friday through Monday appears could be a different story from the past weekend for the far east side, that being, much more dry with early onset of sea breezes and cooler as a result, at least at the beach, as the surface ridge axis shifts toward North Florida closer to I-10 as opposed to being located along the latitudes of Lake Okeechobee.  Additionally it appears that in this more easterly flow coming up, chances of some 'dry slots' will be more prevalent, resulting in day or so of much restricted activity favoring inland (isolated) and toward the west side of the state.

" Our Ship Has Come In "

Similar Pattern To Saturday, Pattern Breaks Down More Late Tuesday

"You Got A Problem with That?"

TODAY: If you had a problem with yesterday's weather over parts of Florida in the rain department (or even if it was dry), then you might have a problem with today, as the pattern looks similar. Weak low pressure circulation through the mid levels over the far NE Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Southeast continues with the ridge axis suppressed somewhat to the south and east of Central Florida, with an axis running across Lake Okeechobee. Winds are already southeast over far southeast Florida which should prevent thunder from affecting the far Southeast area in the afternoon.  Skies this morning appear per infra-red satellite imagery to be rapidly clearing in many areas during the past hour or two over many areas prior to sunrise. 

The better chances will be where greater moisture and a WSW-SW steering flow exists south of I-10 and north of the north shores of "The Big Lake". Storm motions won't be strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze though, which became quite strong as far as sea breezes go yesterday afternoon, at least across Brevard county, where white caps were on the ocean once it fully set it.

Most activity that is on the 'stronger side' will be along to west of I-95 more than likely, but could propagate back toward the east coast late, and possibly repeat what occurred last night, especially after and as the sea breeze relaxes and begins to retreat back to the east and offshore.

Images from 530AM Shows Rainstorm clusters moving away from the coast and rapid clearing

BEYOND: One more day of a 'similar pattern' (but not exactly), but by Tuesday things will change to prevent most east coast areas to received late day rains.

 It also appears a tropical wave well east of Cuba could circulate around the ridge building in by that day, and could bring a boost to moisture across South Florida (at least), but time will tell, it does show up on satellite imagery, and the GFS hints at a moisture increase mainly across South Florida this day, which would mostly impact SW-W Florida late in the day.

Otherwise, most days will see activity restricted to the inland areas as steering is too weak no matter what direction it is from to offset sea breezes; where the sea - lake breezes meet in convectively favored areas will be where the best chances of rains to fall will occur. 

Possible Earlier Onset of Showers / Sea Breezes (Favoring East Side Late)

Like Angel Hair, Pileus Cloud Veils the Crown of a Towering Thunderhead

TODAY: A weak low pressure circulation will exist today near the Big Bend south to almost west of Tampa Bay along an old decaying frontal boundary trail partially responsible (in part) for the steering of Arthur the other day. This boundary  and low circulation will be in place on Sunday as well,  the circulation  possibly   moving to the east side off JAX by the end of the day then up the U.S. east coast. 

Otherwise, little aloft has changed with southwest winds  at the 'storm steering' elevation. The surface ridge axis has lifted a bit further north today which will allow the East Coast sea breeze to form sooner than yesterday (by noon-1pm).  Already, some showers are off Tampa Bay and others exist well off to the east of Volusia County which are moving away to the northeast. Often, when showers are near Tampa Bay before sunrise, that is a sign of earlier shower/storm onset elsewhere. Cloud cover probably won't be as prevalent over as many parts of the state at sunrise as was the case yesterday.
With plenty of precipitable water in the atmosphere, could end up being quite a bit of 'debris clouds' hanging around once the day gets rolling which could offset storm formation in several areas that normally might otherwise see them, but by days end, a lot of populace could end up getting wet one way or the other. 

Other than where some strange boundary mergers might occur over interior South Florida or over East Central closer to the east coast, (or further north along the Suwannee River Basin toward JAX)  most storms should be mostly a lightning threat with some heavy downpours and localized brief 'flooding' in a few prone areas (for mostly  activity after 4pm).

Singe Cell Storm works North up the East Coast Sea Breeze over "The Cape"

SUNDAY: Little change from today. Sunday appears to be a variation of SATURDAY with the steering from west to east beginning to weaken , making for even slower storm motions but with ample atmospheric moisture, should be a pretty good coverage except toward South Florida east side where the sea breeze might keep that area 'cleanly scoured out'.

BEYOND: Normal afternoon/evening thunderstorm and shower regime mainly away from the coasts with many days ending in overcast conditions due to storm debris clouds lingering from late afternoon to after midnight.

Ocean Waves on the Fourth of July  

Chance of "Enhanced" Storms East Side and South Later Today

Holiday Beach Goers Should Be Aware of the Lighting Potential Today

TODAY: Holiday Weekend in store with a brief post since not much change from what was written in the posts of the past two days. Sea breeze expected to form south of Vero Beach today, and perhaps one will form as far north as Cape Canaveral but be delayed until mid afternoon. There is a sharp moisture gradient in the mid-levels per the RAP model and cloud cover seems to confirm it, and satellite visible imagery does seem to show this boundary running across Central Florida as well.

Chance of stronger storms where the moisture gradient from more to much less moist is coincident with a land/sea breeze merger over East Central somewhere from North Brevard to as far south as Vero or even West Palm Beach where the drier air is more fully entrenched.   Looks like an earlier onset of showers/storms today but the far east side of the state north of West Palm might see in general a much later 'atmospheric performance' than the inland counterparts. Showers could dwindle into the Fireworks hours, or as merely cloudy cover with or without some light rain in a few locations.

WEEKEND: Only real change from previous is that a more SW Flow aloft is now back in the equation , but this might be questionable namely because the latest run of the GFS did a horrible time of analysing the track of Arthur and it is that model guidance mainly that is being utilized. The trend seems to be that even if steering is toward the east side of the state, it will be so slow that the bulk of activity would remain east of or near I-95 and inland and away from either the immediate west of east coasts except maybe north of or near Daytona Beach. For the most part, the I-4 and Florida Turnpike remains the favored areas with cloud cover overspreading many areas on the more active days toward sunset contingent up on which direction anvil level winds are blowing...though with a  weak SW flow into perhaps Wednesday, some activity might be able to make it back to the east coast, late. The chance of morning offshore waterspouts east coast  might still be in the equation on Sunday morning, but that's a long shot.

"Arthur Ashes" To Generate Showers/Thunder Today - Very Warm Most Areas

TODAY: Tropical Storm (soon to be hurricane more than likely) Arthur well on its way out, threatening the easternmost portions of North Carolina primarily, though strongest winds appear will remain offshore for the most part on the eastern flanks. Otherwise, over Florida the storm is leaving a string of surface/low level boundaries and vorticity which trails the whole way across the state to as far west as North Mexico.

Do not expect a sea breeze most anywhere except perhaps South Florida. West winds could bring an extra kick to high temperatures today even to the beaches, but cloud cover onset might come a bit early (and be tough in clearing in some areas), and thus this might offset what could be even warmer temperatures. The GFS primarily is calling for cooling upper level temperatures going into mid-afternoon though the RAP (short term model) and NAM (North American Model) show otherwise. This is important for storm strength (colder aloft is more favorable for stronger storms, namely in the wind department in this particular situation today). Suspect we could see some stronger winds ahead of and along the leading edge of some activity today with frequent lightning, but today will not be a 'normal' Florida summer thunderstorm day given lack of sea breezes and the proximity of Arthur and it's remnant 'ashes'.

 

FOURTH OF JULY FRIDAY: Continues to look like there is more of a chance for stronger storms over the East Half of the state late Friday afternoon with a near side shore seabreeze component working the east side. Perhaps some stronger storms in the climatologically favored  Sanford - Daytona - Port St John triangle region, but that is only a guess this early in time. We will need to see if more boundaries remain from Arthur tomorrow (and suspect some will). There is a chance that some areas might be fretting about fireworks displays somewhere in the state with some activity lingering past dark. Additionally, if the GFS forecast holds any 'precipitable water' in truth, earlier afternoon onset of activity inland progressing eastward might put a damper of afternoon outdoor activities in some locations.

Directly Related to Arthur on Wednesday Morning, Looking north toward Port Canaveral at Sunrise

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: One or both days, very light morning winds (to calm) and clearer skies could result in showers forming close to the coast or existing just offshore the coasts. Saturday morning looked primarily favorable for near shore waterspout formation per the GFS forecast sounding with less than 5 kts of wind from the surface up through nearly 10,000 feet almost anywhere. Time will tell. Sunday pretty much the same deal. Storms should be focusing primarily over the weekend days though come mid-late afternoon away from the beaches and a bit toward the west half of the state, particularly around the other climatologically favored area, Tampa Bay.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Thunderstorms continue each day in the mid-late afternoon to early evening mainly away from the coasts. The favored area now appears to be along the I-4 and Florida Turnpike zones with  low level and mid level ridge axis' over Central Florida and extreme northern parts of South Central. Only minor variations to this pattern are in store at this point in time (at least per the GFS) through mid week next week.  

Chance of Squally Showers as Arthur Exits Today

  "Rainstorm"

TODAY: Very little change in reasoning from yesterday's post. As presumed, shower/storm activity was at a minimum yesterday over East Central Florida although some areas were getting the showers, coverage was small. Today might have a better 'coverage' chance as a trailing trough from Arthur now about 75-95 miles East of Melbourne at 5AM works north. Suspect now, that with some daytime heating (with sunrise )..shower activity will begin to activate along unseen boundaries already in place as spokes around Arthur. The better chance these will move onshore or generate showers over land are over the North Half of the state, with another into South Central or South Florida. Winds have already swung around to a westerly component as opposed to North- NNE of yesterday in Arthur's cyclonic (counter -clockwise) circulation. Temperatures aloft are pretty warm for thunder chances, so the best chance of thunder would be over the panhandle where they are forecast to be a bit colder. Otherwise, winds could get quite gusty in the vicinity and in the first portions of any rain shower or rainstorm ('squall') if they can manage to get going.

'Better Chance' for Squally like Rains in Yellow Today (Wednesday)

THURSDAY -  "The 4Th" : Better chance of thunder on Thursday but more so on The Fourth of July, Friday . Models are showing a trail of vorticity stretching from Arthur to across Central or South Central Florida for several days.  This 'energy' trails the whole way back into North Central Mexico  (completely across the entire Gulf of Mexico). Colder air aloft could provide the impetus for thunder, but suspect we might have a hard time with it on Thursday since we might not experience an east coast sea breeze.

Possible Strong Storms on the Fourth of July favoring interior to the east side of the state.

WEEKEND: Continued chances of showers and thunder. It appears steering will become light and sea breezes might be slow in starting up each morning. Possible showers/thunder very close to the coasts at time looks possible in the late mornings to early afternoon, then working inland during the day as temperatures aloft remain 'cool' and light winds allow the normal summer geographically induced circulations to come into play which activate thunderstorms and showers in the presence of ample instability and atmospheric moisture.



BEYOND: Next week shows a shift in storm coverage favoring interior toward the west side for several days, but with a small chance of coastal showers popping up, particularly around sunrise to mid morning until the sea breeze kicks in along the east coast.

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast To Make a Near Pass at The Cape Overnight

TODAY: ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---- LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA


ARTHUR is expected to remain just to the east of Florida, making a near pass at The Cape area overnight into early tomorrow morning. All official information is being relayed by the NWS out of Melbourne , Florida and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It appears that with the Tropical Storm Watch in affect for the coastal waters though, that the main impacts as noted yesterday, will be for marine interests. Latest radar is showing some activity well offshore rotating around the center but remaining off shore as of 12:30pm. The storm appears to be moving slowly toward the WNW-W at around 2 mph and little change in forward speed or track is anticipated in the next 12 hours. This 'could' conceivably bring some activity on shore mainly to Brevard/Indian River Counties late today, though most model guidance shows that direct rains will mainly remain offshore (until Wednesday).  

 

WEDNESDAY: The bigger rainfall impacts could (might) occur after sunrise from late morning through afternoon as shown above in the green in association with a trailing low level trough extending from Arthur. The storm is definitely bottom heavy and has been for over 24 hours, with the crux of activity as can be seen above, south of the Center. The  worst case scenario in the rainfall dept. is shown by GFS to be for parts of East Central Florida (Brevard) tomorrow with the Center in that particular model directly east of Cape Canaveral at sunrise by approximately 50-75 miles. That is only one model though, Regardless, the stronger winds are to be east and northeast of the Center. Must say though, as of 12:30pm, radar animation appears to show the storm to be moving almost directly west at the current time.

BEYOND: A return to more 'normal' summer like weather with thunderstorms possible toward the Interior and East Coast for a few days as the Atlantic Ridge axis builds in across South Central to Central Florida.