First Cold Front of 2017-2018 Slated for Tomorrow Afternoon

October 16, 2016 Off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not too much change in the short - term (today) other than that the risk of actual 'thunder' (been a while) is a bit higher than has been previously indicated. The chance , however, is conditional due to how long  a rather "cirious" looking  cirro-stratus deck of high clouds will remain fixed aloft, mainly across North Central into parts of Central. 

The best potential for storms today at the lower levels of the atmosphere (parameters wise) just so happens to be where those clouds are now co-located, which negate any positive affects for storms. 

As a result, the blog will simply indicate the entire region that has the best-overall chance of seeing thunder today ( not necessarily exclusively). The Area over far Southern Interior Florida also appears to be in the game but all areas are in question. If thunder can get going, even rain showers (apart from some that have already manifested along the east coast near Melbourne and south) it would most likely be after 3:00pm or so through 7-8pm.

TUESDAY: Cold front still on the way for mid-week, though it will be a bit slower to make the sweep down the peninsula. All guidance is in agreement that a 2PM FROPA (frontal passage) across Central-Direct will have to be put on hold for early evening. As a result, day time heating, and the questionable amount of cloud cover that might or might not be present   tomorrow will again make for a conditional chance of thunder from Brevard County southward toward Broward County.  Chances are we'll at least see some showers along the cold front however, as that boundary will act as a low level convergence source, and hence , as a lifting mechanism. 

What that also means though is one more day of 'warmth' . The last vestiges , or apparently so, of 2017 Warmth are getting closer and closer to exit the scene until 2018, at least, as a full time resident. Given that days are getting shorter due to lower sun-angle, eventually we will be resigned to realize that the new normal for highs will be in the lower 80Fs and eventually even cooler with time.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front slated to work across Central Florida and be located still along a line from near  Central Brevard toward Southern Sarasota Area around 8PM Tuesday evening, if not a bit further north than that. 

It will have to be waiting for some reinforcements to arrive to make further southward progress, but never fear, they're on the way for the front to make to far South Florida by day break.

What this all means is that morning lows on Wednesday won't be quite as cool as previously anticipated but not by a significant difference. Dry air advection ahead of the parent high pressure area building east across the Deep South will filter in continual fluxes of drier air all day Wednesday and most notably over night Wednesday evening.

 Low Wednesday morning along Coastal Brevard and South might be in the 63-65F degree range with a NW wind , but not a 'strong and gusty' kind of wind. Day time highs in the lower-mid-70Fs , but due to the delayed FROPA this also means that the strongest of cold air advection will be at play during peak heating, which means areas just to the north and/or interior regions North Central and North 'might' struggle to attain 70F  --bearing in mind, what this all means most  for the immediate beaches is that the afternoon High Temperature on Wednesday will be cooler and drier than any of the morning low temperatures  that region has realized since spring.

THURSDAY: Again, driest of air will pave the course to allow  over night lows to 'plummet' into the mid-50Fs many areas interior, even lower 50Fs to even upper 40Fs (dare we say it?) over North Central along or near Route 27 (Lake County for example), though upper 40Fs might be a bit much. Regardless, that is the region that will see the coolest temperatures , with the 'less frigid' temperatures coastal Brevard , southward. Lows in the latter region in the upper 50Fs on the outer Barriers, with lower-mid 50Fs closer to US1 and west. Lighter wind this day under pleasant skies. Thursday, after the morning chill, looks like it could be a rather stellar day to go outside and play.

FRIDAY: Fun -n- games over,  mainly east coast as overnight winds attain an onshore component. Morning lows beaches in the mid-upper 60Fs and will rise to to Thursday''s high temperature range with two hours after sunrise more than likely Moistening of the atmosphere will only be slow, but progressively increase a bit heading to Saturday. No rain.

SATURDAY- SUNDAY: Wouldn't be surprise if we have a Tropical Depression on hour hands in the far SW Caribbean 'somewhere' before we see the weekend begin.  Most guidance purports that something of that nature will lift north across Cuba , but likely be pulled just off to the east of the peninsula as the next cold front approaches, with potential rain affecting parts of South Central to all of South Florida  (if  any of this occurs ) with a closest pass to the state. Granted, it's just too soon to say, as the first assumption is that said circulation will manifest, and secondly that it will lift north as well, at least in the mid-term.

Regardless, at this rate nothing to start rationing food and stocking up on batteries over though this weekend at any forecast-rate is up for grabs depending upon the area of interest that the Hurricane Center is giving a 40% chance of development beyond 48 hours from today (Monday).

More cool weather is on the way it appears now but nothing drastic heading toward next week. 

HALLOWEEN: Given all guidance being shown so far, Halloween looks like it will be dry with seasonable temperatures, nothing frighteningly chilly or spooky wet.

Much Cooler WED-THUR, Next Weekend "Uncertain"

TODAY-SUNDAY: Little change  as written in yesterday's post in the short term (link opens new window).  

 Continued a bit breezy near the coast with ENE wind becoming more easterly overnight to even ESE over night before daybreak. Warmest overnight near the coast as a result of the proximity to the warmer. near-shore ocean waters.

As surface wind becomes more southerly ahead of the advertised cold front on Tuesday, there is a slight chance of patchy, mainly low level cloud cover , even a shower or two mainly along the east coast from south to north from before sunrise up through early afternoon. Guidance is not too gung-ho on the showers, but there is still that possibility.

Thus, 'heavy' rainfall not anticipated, though perhaps heavier activity might evolve toward the Ocala area and west of there later in the day as the moisture surge continues north and westward.

MONDAY: Cold front will still be approaching the Western Panhandle as solid southeast wind prevails at the surface. Chances are high clouds will begin to encroach across much of the state from early morning through mid afternoon related to at least in part storm activity over the Gulf or approaching upper level jet stream winds , with perhaps some stronger storm activity over the Western Panhandle. Due to timing earlier in the day and antecedent cloud cover, 'strong to severe' in that area might be an over-kill as surface based instability would be lacking given the earlier in the day timing and the cloud cover.  Shear does not look strong enough to compensate for lack of instability.

Further east and south though, some instability might be able to amount mainly south of  I-4 toward the east coast (perhaps); more possible south of Ft Pierce. Either way, the chance of at least rainfall increases greatly over the remainder of the peninsula working from west to east , mid-morning through mid-afternoon with possibly some embedded thunder. There's no 'strong signal' for definite thunder, however. associated with this pre-frontal activity.

TUESDAY: The GFS has slowed the front down several hours per the latest morning run, but up until this last run it had held fast to a 2PM FROPA across Central Florida, so the jury might still be out on the exact timing. Chances are a conference call is still in order before the final verdict. There be no hung jury on this one though...for....

Regardless, in the end it doesn't make all that much difference. The front  to clear all of Central prior to daybreak Wednesday on which full 'cold air advection'  (per se) will be in swing beginning mid-afternoon through sunset as skies clear later Tuesday into the evevning. There could still be some renegade showers ahead of the front on Tuesday but mostly there will be cloud cover.

WEDNESDAY: Northwest wind to start the day, with lows interior toward Southwest Florida mainly in the mid-50Fs with lower readings far north. Immediate East coast south of Daytona Beach , mainly east of US1 might still be holding in the lower 60Fs on this morning, but with full cold air advection at play during peak heating high temperatures will struggle to get past 74F or so but for far South Florida. Whether some areas ever crack 70F would be interesting to see.

THURSDAY: Still looks to be the coolest of mornings, and perhaps the coolest we might see for a while despite two more fronts on the horizon, but that's for another day.

Widespread lower to mid 50Fs interior with upper 50Fs nearer the coast as wind decreases a bit. Highs in the mid- 70Fs.

FRIDAY: Looks more certain now that 'the wind shift of end alls' will begin overnight such that by sunrise on this day one will be greeted by mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches with increasing moisture already working back on the return play. Still cooler but as cool further inland and along the west side.

SATURDAY-BEYOND: Rain chances could well already be in the offing for South Florida by morning with a chance of showers increasing northward toward the I-4 late morning through mid afternoon. Too soon to say if thunder might be at play in the mix.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: GFS shifting gears several times but at least has some semblance to the Canadian. It is now forming a weak 'surface low ' looking thing WNW of the Western Tip of Cuba which appears to take on some form of a transient sub - tropical nature, though given what it shows now it would be one of 'un-named' origin given the shear aloft. The Canadian looks to have a more definite leaning to the naming convention realm but with the low further to the east, even to miss Florida entirely as it lifts north and east. Would side more with the GFS.

On that assumption, but given how far out still in time we must project, would mention only that what what might evolve would be the risk of some severe weather or large rainfall totals 'Somewhere across the state'. The GFS earlier had the focus on the region mainly along to north of I-4 but has now taken it to South Central Florida. Either way, some large rainfall totals over a 36 - 48 hour time frame could still be in the cards for next weekend. We'll just have to wait it out for a few days more, and in the meantime get adjusted to the more certain cool down on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. It might be SO COLD we'll have to turn the air-conditioner off and open some windows.

EVEN BEYOND: Appears this front is to be the first in a family of three. The next front on board (associated with the questionable next weekend event) will be just beyond the scope of whatever happens (or doesn't happen) next weekend. Then another after that several days beyond.

So far, the trend has been that with each passing front in the great beyond that the cooling affects of them becomes less and less pronounced with time, and/or shorter lived.

"Potentially' Active Period Ahead - But Big Cool Down First

TODAY - SATURDAY: Continuation of the status quo in regard to wind as most all of North and Central dry out; moisture still ample for showers, some briefly on the heavier side parts of far South Central to South Florida. Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures, especially in regard to morning lows along the immediate coast where lows will be in the upper 70Fs along A1A, courtesy of the prevailing northeast winds which are common this time of year up through November. Elsewhere in the state, some 50Fs have already been realized across North Florida that past two mornings.

SUNDAY: High pressure  north of Florida over the Carolina's will lift out toward the ENE-NE as a Deep Layer upper level trough shifts east from the Central Plains states toward the east coast. As a result , flow (surface wind) will shift to more ESE-SE direction over Saturday night through Sunday. Flow that is more from the south will usher deeper moisture northward to Central Florida likely before sunrise Sunday morning. 

Net affect will be increased low level clouds and risk of rain showers up the coast working well inland , especially near and after day break as far north as Southern Volusia by sunrise. Showers, maybe even a convergence band or two (which results in locally heavier rainfall totals) 'might' set up, but better chance there will be apparent random showers working inland from the coast, possibly evolving to 'thunder' along the West Central side of the state later in the day. This moisture will continue west and north into evening and then an interlude of drying could begin heading into Monday

MONDAY: Warm with southeast wind with lower rain chance this day.  

First Cold Front of the 2017-2018 Season on the approach across the Mississippi River Valley Basin, with parent upper level well north up in Canada. Under any other circumstances such a synoptic set up would unlikely ever result in a frontal passage; however, a secondary mid-level low appears will form over Eastern Texas into Louisiana that will provide the extra impetus for the front to make the clean sweep across the state on Tuesday.  

MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: Rain chances increase from Panhandle first then from north to south and west to east. Risk there might be a chance of severe weather but appears to be limited to mainly the Florida Panhandle, with a smaller risk as far south as I-4.  The best rain chances will be associated with a pre-frontal boundary (trough) ahead of the main front. It's affects might be realized on Monday or Monday night but since timing is still an issue simply put it in with Tuesday.

Per latest GFS, the frontal boundary itself is expected to be across Central to South Central (Melbourne - Sarasota line) sometime around 1pm Tuesday afternoon (give or take about 3 hours either way).   (see below). 

Image is showing 'dew point' temperatures. Lower dew points means drier air.

Behind the front, brisk NW wind to be expected. Cold air advection will not be 'truly realized' until perhaps near midnight Tuesday night and especially after 3AM Wednesday morning and beyond. Lows Wednesday east of US1 /South of I4 expected in the lower 60Fs (warmer far south) with interior temperatures running in the mid 50Fs (more or less) (colder North, warmest far South).  

Overall, Wednesday looks  breezy, dry, and somewhat cool , especially considering this will be the first time since last spring to see such 'low' dew points and highs not getting above what would normally be a morning low temperature. 

 Continued breezy all day into Wednesday night under clear skies (remember those?)

THURSDAY: Coolest morning so far of the 2017 -2018 Season state wide. GFS is pulling some mid-upper 50Fs out-of-the-hat all the way to The Barriers with lower to mid-50Fs interior (warmer further south). Chances are it will still be quite breezy this morning and might not get 'quite' as cold as shown over the Barriers due to how warm the surrounding waters are still, but it has happened in the past so could indeed be that 'cold'.  High in the lower 70Fs though, maybe even some mid-70Fs.

FRIDAY: Wind calming down a bit as wind veers more northerly. Along the immediate BARRIERS this will be the 'make-or break' day for morning lows.

 If wind can manage to amass an on-shore wind component over night, Friday will dawn 7-10 degrees warmer than Thursday will. 

Otherwise, another cool morning but with a very quick warm up. By afternoon we're totally 'out-of-the-woods' with this first cool 'outbreak' of  fall like weather.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: 

Eyes on the skies, namely the ones over the Western Caribbean to far Southeast Gulf of Mexico. 

The Canadian Model for three runs in a row is showing a Tropical (Named) Storm System lifting northward across West Central Cuba to impact South/Central Florida by the NEXT WEEKEND ; whereas the GFS instead shows a general area of 'disturbed weather lifting north further to the east over the East/Central Gulf, as supposedly two weak separate surface low pressure areas to move across North and North Central Florida . ...resulting in perhaps severe weather and/or locally heavy rainfall totals over a two day period. The "GFS Signal" looks very strange on paper at least with some of the wind fields being shown, so definitely bears a bit of scrutiny for watching, but with plenty of time to res-position any assumptions. In the end, who knows, maybe it will be all for naught and nothing will be waiting on the wings at all. For sure though if anything does 'come up'..the media will be all over it.

Either way, for now can't hurt to be watching the time frame in the Forecast Realm of Thursday - Saturday as a "heads up". 

In the interim, much cooler weather is on the way!

"Conditional Risk" of Rain / Storm Event Thursday - Early Saturday

Area of Dune Line, Cape Canaveral, Post -IRMA

TODAY: Slowly increasing atmospheric moisture from South to North now in process (see image below). A 'pocket' of moisture (per morning Global Forecast System - GFS model) is crossing Central Florida late morning through early afternoon, producing some quick passing 'brisk showers' along with the already breezy conditions , particularly along the 'immediate beach side'.

These might well be coming to and 'or might not' later in the day. Regardless, the bigger 'potential' news lies ahead in the mid-range  later tonight toward early Thursday as inherit atmospheric moisture associated with an inverted short-wave trough (tropical wave) approaches the Florida East Coast.

Latest visible satellite loop 'appears' to show that perhaps a low pressure area is forming ESE of South Florida in association with this wave.  

That is of importance to realize in the forecast range, for if a low pressure area does manage to form, the risk of heavier rainfall and potentially some land-falling 'stronger storms' (perhaps waterspout potential) will increase. 

The inverted trough extending northward from any 'said low' (if it can form) would  operate as low-level convergence boundary  as the surface reflection passes from east to west across South Florida and the Florida Straits all day Thursday into early Friday in the midst of PWAT Air (Precipitable Water) over 2.0".

Greatest instability will lay across the east coast and near shore waters either way, mainly from Extreme Southern Volusia County southward , a contribution from warm Atlantic waters.

Animation earlier today shows the 'tidal wave' of moisture (per previous blog post) approaching from the east. The leading edge is reaching Brevard County even now, but the greater moisture per most model guidance is not to arrive in this area, and further north as well , until within an hour or so of sunrise Thursday morning.  This loop ends at 10:30AM, Wednesday morning.

This  image (below) is as of 12:30PM, EDT. The  'Deeper Moisture' is still off to the east and south of Central Florida and even Southeast Florida. In the below image one can see the focal area of red which is near where it appears per surface visible satellite animation that a surface low might be forming over eastern portions of the Florida Straits north of the coast of Cuba.

Given a number of 'significant uncertainties'...this  post will punctuate perhaps what might be a 'worst case' scenario . 

A phrase oft heard during the time of IRMA was, "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best'...chances are, whatever occurs will be somewhere in between. The two threats 'this blog' will mention as greatest relevance are 

1) Enhanced Flooding potential across areas already impacted by IRMA and the rain -event of several days ago;  and

 2) 'land-falling (tornadic) water-spout potential.

The second 'threat' is highly conditional; 
no forecast offices are referring to that chance as of this time. 

Just a heads up.

Of more immediate concern would be the 'flooding risk'. As of this hour the greatest risk appears to be for parts of Palm Beach, Martin, and St Lucie Counties southward in the 'rainfall arena' when all is said and done from beginning to end of 'said event'. 

Further north , the risk of 'waterspouts' might increase 
IF a surface low does in fact form.

In any case, most rains for at least most of Thursday will also be accompanied by stronger wind gusts at least initially. Wind direction will primarily be from the ENE-NE direction during this time period.

By Friday, wind will have weakened substantially as rains become  increasingly intermittent while the tropical waves moves on west away from the state. 


Elsewhere, chances are an Area of Investigation (INVEST) in the far SW Caribbean will develop into a NAMED system, 'Norm'. Current projections of said storm  imply this system will likely be too far to the west to impact the East Coast of Florida (going into early next week). That is to say, based on 'only current' projections.

 News stations and other outlets will be "Flooding the air waves" with more on this yet to be seen system in the next 24-72 hours as conditions develop.

Again, the blog will depict a worst case scenario, and there is a chance that some areas if not many will not see rainfall totals even half of what this graphic portrays. 

Any 'stronger wind associated with this upcoming 'event' will not be from a tropical storm, but rather pressure gradient wind between the low pressure over the Caribbean and a large high pressure area extending down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and well out into the Western Atlantic from of the Mid-Atlantic states region. 

In fact, wind tomorrow might actually be a bit 'weaker' than has been for the past 24 hours and  much of today.

No one location will necessarily experience anything close to what is shown 'might be the case' , below. 

The most likely impacted areas appear to be in the regions from Vero Beach southward. 

Additionally, 'the 'greatest impact box' (purple)
 might need to be shifted further south.

Risk of More Rainfall Over Swollen Tributaries Continues (Mainly North) Through Tuesday

TODAY: Latest radar animation out of Melbourne in combination with model guidance depictions  up to the mid-levels appear to support that a broad cyclonic circulation exists over Central Florida .  

This area might move a bit further north during the day as 'vorticity lobes' glide around it. The areas more likely to be in The Positive advection of that energy appears will be north of a line from Melbourne to Tampa Bay (in general).

There is a chance that some 'negative vorticity' advection will be on-going south of that line so that the risk of shower/storm coverage will be much lower in that area despite the presence of more than ample atmospheric moisture. 

At this point will only mention that all NWS Forecast Offices do see how problematic forecasting this 'messy situation' is that we have at hand today  going into Sunday.  It well could rain across the regions further south, but suspect that any rainfall there will be much more spotty in nature.

Counter-clockwise circulation 'appears' to be at play in the below radar animation from earlier this morning from Melbourne's WSR-88D radar, centered over Osceola County (up through 4AM).

For this post, will use the reasoning that an old frontal boundary that passed through the Northeast states and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast weakly extends southward from well off shore over the Atlantic and arching back south and west toward the Florida - Georgia Border. High pressure building in behind it from the north from Eastern Canada will breach well south toward this aforementioned boundary and in due time will extended its girth down the rest of the state, but that will not truly begin until around Monday and be especially 'noteworthy' in regard to the wind field as we go into Tuesday (winds increasing from the east to east-northeast).  

Hence, the period from Tuesday - Friday look much like what would typically be expected as 'fall weather' with temperatures having little more than a 10F degree diurnal variation, mainly ranging in the mid-upper 70Fs (lows) and lower-mid 80Fs (highs), depending on cloud coverage and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. The closer to the beach one is, the less the variation in temperature will be.

The net affect is that as the high pressure builds south so to will be what remains of the 'convergence source' (ie, the frontal boundary). This would enable rain-showers to continue to advect on shore in 'random' fashion for a time, until the boundary washes out and a period of dryer air works in .
GFS guidance numerically shows rain chances all next week, but in looking at several models I question whether the depth of moisture will be sufficient for rain every day. The days least likely to see rainfall would be Wednesday and at least part of Thursday (at least on a wide-spread basis). 


The GFS then has been consistent in showing a 'Tidal Wave' of moisture approaching form the east as accompanied with deep easterly flow.

Again, heading from Today through Tuesday expecting 'most rainfall concentrations' (but not all) to be focus across the Northern Portions of the state closer to the frontal boundary.

Heading toward the Friday time frame, as the wind decreases just a bit  there is a chance that an inverted trough would develop along the western side of the Gulf Stream which would act as convergence area for heftier showers to advect on shore the east coast, mainly during the over night through early morning hours, coincident with the presence of this 'TBD approaching moisture'.

Heading to beyond the end of the week into the following weekend...a plethora of 'tropical' solutions begins again to be introduced. 

Given that this is within the 10-Day window (even an 8 Day one) the tropics will again bear watching. Though at this stage a 'strong system' is not being advertised, the GFS is showing what looks like would be a tropical storm lifting northward across the state in some fashion, whereas the latest ECMWF has a system lifting north well east of the state. Other models  imply a smorgasbord of possible 'low pressure areas' both to the west and to the east of the state heading toward next weekend and/or into the beginning of the following week.

Large Rainfall Totals Late Friday - Monday Possible (Flood Potential Aware)

The NWS Service Offices - MLB & JAX To Be Watching The St John's River Valley Basin 

TODAY: Mainly sunny and pleasant North and Central Florida with chance of showers/thunder restricted to South Florida and parts of South Central.

FRIDAY: Guidance is coming into some 'form of agreement' to what is forthcoming in the period Friday- Monday, though surely this will change over the next 24 - 36 hours and as such all items expressed herein from this point out can be based only on what is being presented this morning, and are thus subject to change. 

Consult the National Weather Service for the latest information

 in regard to this upcoming potential situation.

In general, appears a broad area of low pressure will be forming somewhere over South Florida on Friday with a focus toward the east coast to somewhere between West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. It is unknown as to whether the surface  low which might form will head for the warm waters of Gulf Stream as a warm water source or remain closer to the coast. That first and foremost will greatly determine the amount of rainfall possible along the Florida east coast anywhere from Miami to the Cape initially in the upcoming 48 hours.  


The GFS model run of this morning focuses the mid level low right over the Cape  by midnight Friday night into Saturday morning (as an example)

So far, reliable guidance is agreeing regardless that the 'best chances of rainfall' in relation to this 'unfolding TBD drama' will be 'somewhere along the east coast' and 'east of the spine of the state' from JAX south toward the West Palm Beach area. For now will try not to be too specific.

In regard to 'wind', no strong wind is foreseen other than perhaps some gusty wind in the vicinity of any  thunderstorms that might occur, which is possible as well. The main concern as noted in the Subject Image (above) is rainfall due to  that the St John's River is already above Flood Stage , as could be read.   

Below is an image of where some of the heavier rainfall might occur over  a three day period coupled with the areas that are most impacted by the St John's River

Largest rainfall totals IF a low pressure area Remiains at the coast migh be largest from Volusia County and North
if a low remains on the coast. If the low stays out over the Gulf Stream instead, rainfall totals will be considerably lower

SATURDAY: Will say at this point only that if the GFS were to verify that Saturday might for the most part be 'deceptively' dry, even into Sunday for most areas other than across NE Florida.

Any low to form , even over the Gulf Stream might well be advected back to the coast across North Florida and then dampen out  westard as an 'open' wave as Stout High Pressure builds eastward behind a departing cold front across the Great Lakes region. This High Pressure region will span from much of Far Eastern Canada southward all the way to Florida and be met with conflict by a broad area of low pressure over much of the Western  Caribbean and into the the Eastern and Southern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The net affect will be a period of prolonged, long fetch easterly winds extend up through the depths of the atmosphere.   (see below)

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Phase II of 'said' potential rain event commences as easterly flow extends from the surface up through 10,000. Brisk easterly wind generally in the 15 mph range gusting to around 25mph might be in place for several days if not all of next week. As the depth of the wind increases we could well dry out as the high PWAT (preciptable water) air is pushed off to the west of the state. But then another issue keeps developing on our paper Magic Eight Ball (The GFS model specifically in the 'Beyond' ).

Temperatures as a result will vary little with lows in the upper 70Fs to near 80F and highs in the mid 80Fs. A 'drying' out period might in fact commence heading into Wednesday but the winds will continue in 'fall like fashion'.

BEYOND: Heading toward the second week of October the GFS is once again up to it's shenanigans which really is fairly typical of the models this time of year -- have seen it before. Guidance can for over two weeks forecast a tropical storm or hurricane to form in the region of the Southern GOM or Western to Central Caribbean..and for all that time nothing actually ever forms worth mention.  This has happened in years past and could be the case this year as well.

Then again, something can form. Given the current projections, it appears that if something does form it wouldn't be to the caliber of the storms we've seen this year due to more than likely upper level wind shear. On the other hand,    'rain fall'  would still be big - bug-a-boo to be concerned about in light of the current situation.

Just to give an idea of how nuts the GFS model went in this morning's run..(and the previous one wasn't any more reasonable) we can see that it implies Three Tropical system simultaneously forming all at once. Highly unlikely.

"TROPICAL STORM OUTBREAK!"  OCTOBER 9TH
(the first one ever...)

WRAP UP: In summary, tropical season isn't over yet for Florida in whatever form it might take be it wind or rain...but we'll be on the down swing heading toward week three and beyond.

Hurricane Season Lasts through November, though a search from a "Historical Perspective' as far as records are concerned back into the 1800s showed only two hurricanes   to hit Florida in November, Kate over the Panhandle in 1985, and an unnamed storm in 1935 that crossed South Florida only. Beyond that  there have been about 7 tropical storms (which can still produce tornadoes and/or flooding rains); granted , going back to 'as far as records go' isn't necessarily saying much when considering the big picture; but from a time-scale percentage aspect, it gives one a little perspective on the increasing 'rarity ' as we swim out of October - but first we basically the first three weeks of October to deal with.

Chances of Showers/Thunder South of I-4 : Potential 'Active Event' Going into October

Rain Squalls Preparing to Make Landfall Saturday Afternoon - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Ample moisture combined with sufficient instability and  stronger jet stream level wind from the SSW-SW well aloft rounding the base of an upper level low just west of the state might combine to result in showers and thunderstorms later today from 'South to "North" as the day progresses. 

Exactly how far "North' they will be able to manifest is in question. The better bet is along a line running from South of Melbourne beach west toward interior West Florida east of Sarasota area and south. There is a random risk storms and/or showers might be able to manifest late toward dark as far north as Titusville and across the Orlando area (however). Areas north of I-4 look to have an even less chance of seeing activity today except perhaps toward southern Lake County.

Weekend and Beyond: In lieu of getting tangled up in the next few days to follow which look rather dry and continued quite warm though there might be a  rain chance toward South Florida, especially over the interior, will bring a mention of greater potential relevance/importance  - which is the time from October 1 (Sunday) - October 14. 

GFS, ECMWF, and in some regard the Canadian model are at time sharing in the development of a particular scenario involving the formation of a surface low  across South Florida (generally) either toward the West or East coast (or somewhere in between). Timing in regard to exactly when all this 'might' transpire is still in question; however, the best bet so far points to overnight Saturday night into early Sunday and all through Sunday day.  GFS and in some regard ECMWF models show   quite gusty surface wind to accompany this low  along it's north side which , and if so, would be  a particular pointing to the immediate east coast from Central Volusia County and southward especially for Brevard and Indian River Counties.

Will say that for now this is but a 'heads up' and nothing is set in regard to if any thing will actually transpire. The GFS model has been attempting to peg something down now for several days but keeps changing its tune, but as of this morning several models have jumped on board with 'some kind of scenario' developing during the time frame from Saturday lasting even potentially through to around October 12th (in various phases) as a broad area of low pressure  develops across the Western Caribbean region accompanying by strong high pressure to it's north extending from the Canadian Border southward toward Southern Georgia. 

The result of these two 'areas' alone would be stronger pressure gradient winds, but those plus a surface low of concentrated energy in the presence of PWAT (precipitable water values) in excess of  2,00" along with continued warm ocean waters could spell.. .  "B-I-G - r-a-i-n-f-a-l-l -t-o-t-a-l-s " over the extended time frame for some areas.  So far this does not look like the 'no name' event of October 7 -9, 2011 by any means when there was cold air aloft. This situation looks a bit more 'tropical in nature' than that event. Either way, bears watching. 


There is a risk that  during the course of the period from Sunday through Thursday (in general as a starting point of reference in this yet to develop scenario) that some areas could see as much as 2-5" of rainfall, and that might be conservative.  The GFS and ECMWF also follow up this event with yet another low forming in the eastern gulf which could add to the rainfall totals in a big way; however, the timing on when each model does so is several days apart from each other. 

On top of the rainfall risk, surface winds, if said low can develop could be gusting in the 35-42 mpn range in heavier activities as it comes in off the Atlantic ocean, and this point that area of interest is Brevard/Indian River Counties in particular . So far the time frame for the wind risk looks to be early Sunday through most of Monday (which could easily change).

Regardless of many uncertainties still at this stage, given the situation being presented, it could be considered warranted to provide at least a 'Heads Up!"   from a blogger perspective) that the First Two Weeks of October could be quite active in a variety of ways. Just exactly in 'what way and where' is TBD.

Frequent To "Excessive' Lightning In Storms Possible Later Today

Leading Arcus Extension of Storm's "Self' Invades  Cape Canaveral on August 29, 2014

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday's thinking. Pattern of the days of the past week proved itself to be changing late yesterday, but more so well past midnight as storms continued to be generated and even move off the east coast north of Brevard County with a last little dog leg working down to Cape Canaveral around 3AM over the intracoastal - before the 'fumes  from the heating of the day' had been exhausted. Activity likely was abetted by slightly cooler temperatures  and  upper level divergence  per latest Mesoscale model plot late this morning.

TODAY: Cooler air 'up top' (aloft) is 'anticipated' though the morning sounding at KSC shows that is not the case; at least from which would not warrant for much beyond garden variety thunderstorms with a 700mb temperature of 10C and 500mb no cooler than a -6C. 

The 700mb temperature might not drop all that much today but the 500mb would begin to go down after noon or so to around -8.5C. Much to say today in favor of strong storms mostly due to frequent to excessive lightning and heavy rainfall in short amount of time leading to localized short term flooding in prone areas if late yesterday is to be taken as an indication; on the other hand, if things do not come together as anticipated it might just be like another summer day, especially since 700mb will remain rather on the warm side. 

All in all, for now anticipating that the peak convergence of outflows from the north and west and the weight behind them meeting up with the east coast sea breeze which as of now appears will make it about 20-25 miles inland (tops) if not much less across Central Volusia and northward (but further inland toward South Central)   would begin to the north first then work south and increase in generally over more areas after 3:30pm  - and of that,  could 'peak out/ over Central Volusia and southward toward Central / Eastern Osceola County, Orange County , Seminole County, Northern to Central Brevard County then on down to South   Brevard  and Indian River much later in the afternoon.

Further south other  activities could also form as a result of the Lake Okeechobee/Sea breezes along with the potential for outflows from the north to work south. All in all could be seeing lightning in a few locations well after dark, mainly over South Central Florida to offshore.

SATURDAY: There will be a difference on Saturday with possibly a bit less coverage and not quite as much intensity. Better coverage appears will be from Southern Volusia County southward, especially South Central Florida late in the afternoon. Always a chance that the more 'Central Region' might see more of a relatively, 'early onset day' as opposed to very late in the afternoon.

SUNDAY: GFS and to some degree NAM guidance appears to be agreeing on a remnant boundary across Central is where moisture will be the greatest. Overall state coverage goes down significantly , with the best focus apparently on Central Florida , even to the coast or just in from the coast for showers/storms after 4pm to dark. Nothing 'strong' per se is foreseen on this day .

MONDAY: Though activity could be about, it will mainly be well inland toward the west coast; there is a marked decrease on Monday for the most part.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: For now will say either Tuesday or Wednesday the coverage might well increase, perhaps significantly from Monday as a frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough works into the Southeast States and flow becomes more southerly to even a tad SSW aloft. GFS was showing 'that day' to be Wednesday but recently points to Tuesday. A bit skeptical on that but it's several days away anyway with plenty of time to reassess.

It is this same 'Trough-iness' over the Eastern U.S. and down to Florida   that might have an influence on the future track of Hurricane IRMA.How long it remains in place, to what depth south it extends, and how far south Irma actually is on perhaps Wednesday could all be factors on the future track of the storm as well as how well the ridge to the north of the storm maintains its western most grip. Any relaxing of the ridge to the north to provide a northward escape which the storm can 'touch'...it will certainly take. 

On the other hand - until all things become self-evident  would expect model guidance to go back and forth in various ways as to the extended range forecast in all kinds of fashion. Point being not to hedge one's bets on anything  at this point.

Beyond IRMA there is one other system that perhaps might come into view in the next two weeks...somewhere along the same latitude as where IRMA is not located and well east of the Virgin Islands.

"Strong" Storms "Possible" Friday - Saturday

August 29, 2016 Off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: One more day of slightly warmer than normal temperatures as air mass modification begins the slow, post-tropical translation through the vertical extent of the atmosphere. 

Temperatures aloft remain in that way of warmer aloft as tropical air-masses are. On the other hand, with the wind fields of the past days having been resolved away which prevented sea-breeze/lake breeze convergence manifestations, we should be able to realize a better chance of storms or showers later in the day near the I-75 to Route 27 corridor and northward all along I-10 where showers and thunder are already underway.

Wouldn't expect 'wide-spread' thunder to be at hand. Better chances of 'thunder itself. appears to be over Southwest Florida northward toward Lake County (in general) with the better 'late day' chance in the more northern arena.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  "Summer Resumes" - For now will take the 'sweepingly broad over-generalization' approach to these days as there are specifics being implied by guidance that could potentially put a major crimp in the forecast, especially in the areas north of I-4 where cloud cover 'might be more prevalent' throughout the day. Big 'if" though. So for now...

Upper level temperatures , especially at 500mb are forecast to cool toward the -8- -10C realm with mid-level temperatures a bit slower to catch up (if at all). Additionally, there are implications of the upper levels being nearly saturated the more north of SR 528 one goes. which could mean that cloud cover could hinder 'strong' storm development in those areas. 

The issue further south is a remnant dry layer around the 700mb level. This could either hinder storm strength or add to it, depending on how vertically deep that layer will actually end up being.

Regardless, given continuity in the GFS model going into two days now and between 4 model runs will load the gun and prepare to pull the trigger on making the 'Stronger Storm' call. 

Was tempted to write 'even isolated marginally severe', especially near I-95 from Ormond Beach south toward Vero Beach late in the day" but that might be over doing it a bit. 

Either way...for either one or both days...shower and cloud coverage will be increasing..most persistently it appears over the the northern 1/3 of the state, where even pre-dawn showers with thunder might be in process near the big bend and into the pan handle regions.   

South-Southwest Flow to Southwest will be in place but not so strong as to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming and making progress toward I-95 as it appears now. Overall, Saturday does not look like a good day for late - day activities.

SUNDAY: Temperatures aloft warm as light easterly flow resumes it's course. Moisture availability becomes much more 'spotty' in nature so making a call as to where rain may or may not fall becomes increasingly difficult. 

Overall, chance of earlier day (pre-sunrise to late morning) showers might be in the calling for certain areas along the east coast,  working inland and increasing toward the west coast later in the day.

EXTENDED: The general pattern noted for Sunday persists through at least Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Latest GFS shows an early season 'cold front' making the sweep into the Deep South, even Northern Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia regions. If so, a more 'thundery' pattern state-wide, even perhaps toward the immediate east coast might enter the picture. Assuming the GFS is correct.

"IRMA": Seeing talk wide and broad over the internet concerning how this Storm System 'might' be a threat to almost anywhere along the U.S. East Coast. In some regard, suspect some of the amped up chat is due to Harvey's Impact and fears of 'more of the same' are at the fore-front; however, those fears do not make anything else any more or less true than would be the case for any other system, whether Harvey had been or not.

As of early this morning, the only model that shows a potential 'threat' to be the case out of several that I've looked at is the ECMWF (European) model. The CFSV2 model shows a similar more southerly track toward the Southeast Bahamas  with the storm being approximately 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral next Saturday moving northward...other guidance points to more of a threat to Bermuda and possibly the Northeast States (if even that). 

Point blank, it's just too soon to say, and that a 'threat' is not utterly out of the question.

Dry For Eclipse Monday : 'Unsettled' With Rain -- Storm Chances Tuesday & Beyond

"Arcus Accessory on the Archway!" - Canaveral Cruise Terminals -
Friday, August 18, 2017

An unsettled weather pattern of showers and thunder being possible (even at times over night (especially over the Atlantic) with some 'early on-set ' days possible with varying others modes of operation at hand beginning mid-day Tuesday or as late as earlier on Wednesday through end of month (a few details further in post)...as for today...

SUNDAY: Remnants of a tropical wave already encroaching in on the southeast 1/3 of state to glide over the state today mainly south of I-4.  Wind will be light in the moisture laden air-mass though mainly east to southeast up through the column less than 12 knts.  Guidance is split on how far 'east and north' rain could occur today with greater agreement that points to Southwest Florida.

The area from mainly Indian River and Brevard toward Osceola and eastern Orange Counties is a 'questionable region' in regard to whether they will experience mainly cloud cover or actual rain-showers/storms. The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is consistent on saying 'no chances' (at least early this morning) whereas the 4KM NAM model for the same time is and has been  consistent on saying 'Yes' to the chances for this AOI (Area of Interest). 

The greater chance of storms/ rain for the mid-late afternoon is along Southwest Florida where the best chance of the combination of moisture and low level convergence along the West Coast sea breeze will occur. 

If the areas of Brevard/southern Volusia/Indian River and maybe even St Lucie are to see showers/storms it would be from south to north between 11AM heading toward the 2pm hour (generally speaking).

MONDAY: Sunday's activity will be the first in the next wave of the set to move in, which is on Tuesday. Between waves will be a lull in the action. Enhanced water vapor imagery clearly shows the respite timed nicely for "Eclipse Monday 2017". GFS does show rain storm potential however earlier in the day with a rapid decrease moving to the 'critical eclipse time-frame' of early to mid afternoon as the remaining moisture from Sunday's wave moves west and out of the picture. 

With that said, not to be surprised (just in case) if showers and cloud cover are still sensible (especially along the east coast) early in the day on Monday.

TUESDAY-BEYOND:  

Expect forecasts to shift around rather significantly , almost on a daily basis,  from Tuesday on out at times due to the uncertainty of where, when, or even if an area (or areas) of low pressure might form, especially in the Wednesday - Sunday time frame. 

 A rather complex scenario is at hand in regard to surface and mid level features in regard to the evolution of circumstances, though there appears to be agreement. more or less. that abundant tropical moisture in the mode of PWAT air (precipitable water) values being near to well above the 2.00" mark (comparably speaking, in winter months it is normally 1/2" - 1/4" (or even less at times - aka 'dry air'))

The onset of the moisture is along the leading edge of an AOA being watched by the Hurricane Center which is not forecast but by one model to develop beyond an 'organized wave'. There does seem to be some agreement later on though after this area moves over the southern 1/2 of the state that a weak surface to even mid-level area of low pressure will form either over or just to the east of the state, but it's just too soon to say with any confidence if , when, or where that might occur.  

Apart from a wide mode of potentialities, regardless of what transpires there has been at this point no risk of a bona fide 'tropical threat' outside of perhaps what eventually might evolve for some areas of localized flooding in flood prone areas due to heavy rainfall (mainly during the afternoon and evenings) with consecutive convective days occurring back to back. And if a system does evolve into the realm of the naming convention type it is seen so far to do so east of the state and remain far enough away to not have a direct impact.

Arcus Shelf Accessory from Parent Thunderstorm over the Banana River - Port Canaveral, August 2017

Initially rain fall could occur most anywhere at any time (though mainly later morning through late afternoon) south of I-4 (Tuesday/Wednesday time frame), but as an upper level trough builds south from northern latitudes in response to ridging over the Western U.S., the steering flow becomes progressively more southwest toward the northeast especially as we head  into Friday through Next Weekend. If a low pressure area does form east of the state there could be one or two days of decreased activity with northerly flow to the west of the system, but it's too far out in time to hedge any bets on if that will occur; so far , even if that does occur as the GFS has been implying, moisture is foreseen to remain ample from 'some rain' chances even if so .

Emily's Offspring to Provide Rain to North Central - North Florida

"Rain-Storm" - July 28, 2014 Near Satellite Beach 

TODAY: Things have changed rapidly (though not unexpectedly) overnight. A surface boundary associated with departing Emily left a surface front across South Central by late yesterday. That boundary has retreated as a 'warm front' north to almost I-10 as of 10AM.   South of the boundary, as can be seen below, Emily's offspring in the form of a 'vorticity max' (more than one) is on the trail toward North Florida today, with another apparently awaiting in it's wings for tomorrow further to the Southwest over the Loop Current. What exactly will occur with that is questionable, but for today...

Cloud cover already beginning to over-spread areas that were earlier thought might see a 'good shot at thunder'  so earlier model runs to be tossed. How pervasive the in-coming high - mid level clouds into parts of Central or even South Central  will determine where, if any where, strong thunder will be realized, if in fact, much at all.

For now based  on watching satellite loops , and based on latest wind-profiler information from around the Space Center along with surrounding Rawinsode Sounding Data out of MIA and MLB will go with increasing cloud cover especially along and north of I4. Chance of thunder there still exists but am hesitant to call for 'stronger storms'. Further south and east the chance might improve depending on how much prolonged insolation is received before 2pm or so.

Steering for rain showers and storms is from the WSW-SW at around 17kts from cloud base on up into the mid levels but not strong enough near 'the deck' to off set the development of the east coast sea breeze from Daytona and South. Thus, rain-thunder storms to move easily from west to east today and straight off the coast. Best guess for now is that the east coast sea breeze will form but remain close to the coast, especially for Brevard / Volusia. Best area of insolation and sea breeze/outflow convergence appears to be the coast of Brevard and Indian River Counties then curving inland a bit toward northern side of Lake Okeechobee, and western half of Martin County. Other storms could form further south from St Lucie County to Palm Beach, Broward and Miami/Dade.  

Hazard mainly would be lightning as usual, and heavy rain. Thankfully the majority of the largest rainfall totals appears to be over areas that were least impacted by Emily the other day, though areas that did receive high totals will still see more rain chances today and tomorrow to add insult to injury. Outside of the pervasive lightning threat, stronger wind gusts could occur in the area in 'red' (only as an example). The area in purple is highlighting where it looks like the highest two day rainfall today will be.

THURSDAY: Again, a somewhat similar situation at hand that will likely evolve in a different way. Drier air is to   advect  around the west side of High pressure building in from the Western Atlantic first to South Florida then up though all of South Central by late in the day. Though there could be 'some rain ' in those areas though not very likely but in isolated cases, the better chances for thunder/rain on Thursday appears will be along a line running from near Palm Bay toward Sarasota and north..with an even better chance along and north of I-4 (generally speaking).

FRIDAY: Looks so far like a 'dry slug' will move in with most rain chances restricted to North Florida.

SATURDAY: Shifting again to respectable thunder /lightning risk in what appears to be a  'typically on the wetter type of 'Summer' type of Day ' regime as the ridge axis continues to lift north from South Florida to Central Florida. 

SUNDAY: Same regime as ridge lifts even further north. Rain chances from here on out going into at least mid week next week go down appreciably many areas. Some consecutive dry days in some areas are thus forthcoming. possibly for nearly a week toward next weekend at the rate it's looking now...with most rain chances restricted to SE Florida in the mornings and the interior and west coast in the latter parts of the day.