August 12, 2003 (Update: 2pm)

Cumulus Along I-95 near noon


KSC 15Z Sounding for 8/12/09

FIRST OFF: I want to apologize for the formatting of some of these posts. I can't control where or how the images are displayed nor make the type column wider (unless I go into indepth, time-consuming HTML decoding)

Local Wx Update: I can sum up this update in one word after having time to digest the latest "everything" - DISAPPOINTING. It seemed promising while driving along I-95 around noon with fairly vigorous Cu going up alquads...needless to say I think that was the highlight of the day. Seabreeze by now has reached I-95 while the west coast one is meandering and not really moving at all. So much for the seabreeze collision theory. Additionally, later sounding data is in as shown (click to enlarge). In comparing this with the earlier post, the PWATs (precipitable water values) have actually dropped and winds other than the surface are 5 kts. or less essentially. In other words, no steering, little moisture except at the lowest levels, less than moderate instability all leads to the following: ----

Today: Convective activity up and down the West coast of the peninsula plus a weak gulf breeze will send out various boundaries into the interior but no further than to generate additional activity from Orlando west. This in turn may send out yet additional boundaries further east which will eventually meet the by then east coast seabreeze near the exact spine around 5pm. Outflows from these activities (showers/storms) will most likely not make it as far as I-95 except further north from Flagler County northbound where some good storms may blossom. Not expecting any sunset activity in the immediate area given all of the above.

Tropical Activity: Another let down. The closest tropical wave (of now many) will likely not make it near C. Florida as the ridge indeed will join forces and block northward progress as discussed yesterday (as a possibility). Additionally, the previously mentioned "potential hurricane" is already history. Gee, this is starting to sound like deciding when to hit the Plains for chasing (sound familiar?). And to add insult to injury, we will be in this so so pattern for a few days until what's left of the wave passes by...then steering currents will most definitively be coming from an easterly component on the back side of the passing wave meaning, no coastal thunderstorms.

But wait!!: There's always tomorrow and another model run. Ah...the life.

"Its seems to me a change is really needed, I'm sick of tra la las, and la de das"

August 12, 2003 (9:00AM)

I'll start off this morning with only the local outlook as that 's all time allows at the moment, but an update to the post and other details will be made by 2pm. Can hardly wait : - ) !!

The morning 10z KSC sounding is shown, click to enlarge.

Today's "Synopsis": As expedited, the trough/ridge Transition is now in Phase 2 with the low level ridge axis in the process of moving south to around Ft. Pierce if not further south. The mid-upper level axis' are right over us as I write and will migrate a tad further south throughout the day in varying degrees. Looks like the Cumberland Plateau trough will penetrate the ridge which will change EVERYTHING late this afternoon from how it is this morning. Thus, I don't put much forecast faith in using this sounding as a "sounding board". What it shows most importantly is the transition from yesterday. Actually, moisture is a smidge better than yesterday but not great.

What this means: Winds wise, expecting a land breeze until noon time followed by a SE-SSE wind around 10mph. Mid levels are general south at 10mph or less and upper levels to become SSW-SW. Surface/Thermal trough down the spine of the state is forecast to develop by all models midafternoon providing a focal point for seabreeze collision, with the collision to occur just EAST of Orlando around 5pm. Expect storms could go up about anywhere along the line up but favoring the Central Peninsula for collision storms in this time frame with even earlier convection along both seabreezes further south.

Current Planning: Might head out toward east Osceola County (contingent upon next update) as things evolve. Not expecting wide coverage as there is some slight capping..but moderate instability and a relatively low convective temperature should overcome that. Moisture is not great either..thus enhancing the low coverage reasoning. Expect once stuff goes up anvil will be spread toward the coast post-haste, so gotta get the earlier ones along the seabreeze collision or all will be lost due to that umbrella.

Possiblities Being Considered: Contingent upon how far east something goes up and how far south the mid-level ridge exis sinks south, there is a remote chance for activity to reach the coast at or after dark which may provide for lighting pix ops. Hoping for something a little more isolated and very pretty today wherever it happens, but not necessarily strong or severe.

Tropics: Post to follow later by early afteroon

Tuesday, August 11 (9:00 AM)

(My Location: click on image to enlarge and read.)

This morning: Phase 1 of the transition began this morning around 4am as a portion of the surface ridge axis sank to Central Florida. Aloft the axis is near Jacksonville which tells the story for the day right off the bat. Due to its close proximity surface winds will be light today and dictated solely by seabreeze onset. The only cloud in the sky right now is right over my apartment thanks to "Cape Magic".

Late morning thru early afternoon will be characterized with a slight increase in low level clouds and possibly an isolated shower in the vicinity of the Cape. Otherwise, any other rain along the east coast should fall from Stuart and points south.

Afternoon and early evening: It will be a little warmer today due to compressional heating, with max temp probably around 1-2pm. Once the influence of the seabreeze is felt temperatures will steady off if not fall 1-3 degrees east of US1 until about 5pm when thereafter diurnal cooling until 10pm will commence. Chances for decent storms don't look good anywhere today in the state, but if I had to pick a spot it would be from S. Central Okeechobee County toward Ft Meyers after 2:30pm until 7pm. Storm motion will be a slow westward drift with outflow boundaries and chaotic motion not much a contributing factor.

Upcoming Days: There is a tropical wave approaching from the ESE that the models are bringing into SE-E Central Florida Saturday morning. The reality as to whether this will actually occur is contingent upon whether the continental trough digging south just along the Cumberland Plateau has enough Umpf-sion to break the ridge axis across us...leaving a part to the west and the other part to the east...leaving Florida in "no-mans land" pressure pattern wise. But it has to lift out or weaken significantlyin the process to allow the wave some leeway. If this happens the wave should have enough in it to penetrate right on up that alley across the East Florida Coast. However, if the ridge can't make the split the wave will likely stay south and fizzle. THEN, if it can't make the split will there be enough in the trough to increase or thunderstorm chances? My thinking is that climatologically, the ridge will hold and we will see nothing from EITHER system :- ( !! In any case, it will be interesting to see what materializes... and this should become more evident in tonights model runs. There is yet another wave (now TD2) to the east and north of this one, but that one won't come into play. But before then we still have to deal with the potential for thundershowers most likely late Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents will be from the SSW so anything the pops close to the coast has a chance of crossing the intercoastal, particularly on Thursday. Friday will be much like late Wednesday, with isolated to scattered thundershowers remaining mostly west of US1.

The tropics: (these are my thoughts only, please reference the National Hurricane Center via the link in the "Oft Visited Links" for official info). The GFS still has the next wave in the series following TD2 (the "fish storm") on the same forecast track and intensity outlook as yesterday's run, although the track is a tad to the east of yesterday's outlook. On this course, it would follow a track VERY similar to that of Hurricane Floyd of 1991.

Floyd was a large and intense Cape Verde hurricane that seriously threatened Florida. It neared the threshold of category five intensity on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale as it approached the Bahamas.As a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States eroded the subtropical ridge over the extreme western Atlantic, Floyd continued to turn gradually to the right. The center of the hurricane paralleled the central Florida coast, passing about 95 n mi east of Cape Canaveral around 0900 UTC 15 September. By the afternoon of the 15th, Floyd was abeam of the Florida/Georgia border and headed northward toward the Carolinas. It continued north and struck the coast of North Carolina and moved up the United States east coast into New England.

Monday, August 10 (9:25AM)

This morning's entry is entitled "Beach Trash". After unsettled sleep last night I thought it would be good to take a walk over to the beach to spur my senses..WRONG! Was greeted by commonly seen locals (who believe me were QUITE drunk) , strange looking seashells, and junk clouds as can be seen in the photos.

For today, the weather looks like trash as well. The surface high pressure axis did decide to move out of South Carolina and is nearing south Georgia but for Central Florida that means little to no change in the current setup. There is ample moisture for large cumulus clouds along the coast up until noontime, and maybe a weak rainshower. Winds out of the ENE will arrive by 1pm and the rest of the day will be like Sunday. Best storms today will be from Fort Myers to Tampa.

Yesterday's storms over on that side of the state took a sabatical (as far as anything decent), which seems was due to temperatures a good 3 degrees warmer at all levels aloft which was not in the forecast, as well as a sudden moisture drop at 800mb. Whether that will be the case for today, well it's too early to say since that data is not yet available. If this morning's sounding reveals the same, then well, their getting hosed royally.

Forecast: Transition may well be underway over night tonight. Winds could veer to S or SSW for a short time before sunrise with the remote chance of a shower during the transition. Don't expect full bore transition though until later Wednesday. For now...would expect some storms closer to home tomorrow early in the day, but the affects should be more apparent late Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropically Speaking: The tropical wave that came off Africa is still holding its own quite well and it looks like it will continue to hold together and organize. We might be talking about a depression in 2-3 days. Now for the fun part. The GFS is actually holding it together into somewhere between a strong depression to tropical storm the whole way across the Atlantic to the southern Bahamas by the middle of NEXT week. It then curves NW and eventually NNW toward Hatteras just off the Florida East Coast and strengthens into a hurricane carving a path up to New Jersey. It's too early to even consider this scenario although if this thing does hold together (and I think it will)..such a path is not out of the realms of possibilites. But just exactly how for west it will make it is up in the air. Main point is, at least the models are showing a "tropical something". First time this season. We shall see.

Sunday, August 9 (7:20AM)

No need to elaborate too much this morning. The "Tampa to Ft. Myers" storm pattern has been fully entrenched (and the evidence is shown by yesterday's radar image as shown). Indeed, rainfall totals recorded yesterday in this zone were between 0.5-1.48". But I wouldn't be surprised if an even higher amount occurred in one or two small areas where data retrieval was not performed.


The only interesting thing of note is that it appears a mid-level short wave will be passing across South Florida today which might enhance storm potential from Yeehaw Junction points south, more likely in Okeechobee County this afternoon as well as coastal shower activity as far north as Cape Canaveral through about noon time (as noted by photo below).

Elsewhere, our despise-able high pressure has moved in and set camp over S. Carolina this morning but doesn't plan to stay for an extended visit. By Wednesday it's going to be forced to take a trip down the coast into our area as an upper level trough swipes from the Great Lakes region into the NE U.S. The net affect will be for an increased chance of showers/storms beginning Wednesday evening through Friday for us close to home..but most likely from I-95 and points west. After that it looks like it will head north again...

.....but this time that might be a good thing in the long run. Seems the tropics are considering a trip toward the U.S. This is just becoming evident this morning as a disturbance steps out the door off the African coast. Long range models are providing a glimpse into what may become a strong tropical wave or depression by the week of August 17th. So we are still looking at a long time from now. Stay tuned!

Saturday, August 8 (7:35AM)

The weather pattern transition which began 36 hours ago is now complete generally speaking. Even between yesterday and this morning (and haven't even seen morning data yet) there are additional changes in this pattern which overall will have no affect on east central Florida. Just by looking at the sky this morning (with a full moon as noted in the picture I've added) indicates that there is a very remote chance of a rain shower before 10AM. But nothing more than that.

The remainer of the day will be partly cloudy due to splotches of cirrus or cirrostratus clouds but generally sunny. One subtle change is in the upper level winds which are no longer healthy out of the southwest; hence, not expecting a cirrostratus shield to cover the area as was the case yesterday.

Overall, looks like a "Ft. Myers - Sarasota" set up (good ole' Ft. Myers). But they're due to get some good storms. This year has not been gracious for that area storm wise. The set up for them yesterday looked promising and sure enough I see some rainfall totals in the 1-2" range were recorded. It will likely be the same for the next few days down there, those lucky dogs. Just once I'd love to catch a West Coast Gust Front. That would be a site to see a front lit gust front one hour before sunset! Photo ops. abounding. There'll likely be some strong storms over there today and wouldn't be surprised to see a warning at some point after 6pm.

Friday, August 7 (9:45AM)

First off: I will begin references to Tropical Activity as this season progresses...stay tuned. But for today, I could go on and on about this, that, or the other, but in the long run what it comes down to is nothing other than weak tropical waves will affect Florida during the next week (or will even develop further than being tropical waves within 800 miles).

No surprises for today. As anticipated, today is the transition day. In fact, the transition is occuring as I type. We have been DEAD calm all morning as the signs of things to come materializes. Even the crickets are cheerfully announcing it this morning. Haven't heard them like this is a while.

Inverted trough axis that passed across S. Florida yesterday exited into the SE GOM overnight and is merging with the ridge axis that's been over S. Florida the past few days. As the trough lifts north and weakens (and by the way weakens the ridge for a brief time) we will be in a NIL flow pattern below 18,000 ft for at least the first half of the day. After that, well that is continued below. :- )

Now, I haven't seen Tampa's sounding data yet for 12Z, so unless every model is off then I'm going out on a limb and posting anyway. Actually, the 00z sounding from last night showed that the transition had begun; therefore, I trust the trend being indictated by the models (which has been advertised for days).

Any chances of convection east of I-95 will have to occur before 2:00 pm. There is unquestionably ample moisture and no inhibiting factors in play today, it's strictly a matter of the Deep Layer Mean (DLM) steering winds. They have been very light to a tad from the SSW the past two days, but today they will be light to being from the SSE. This little change will give the east coast seabreeze an extra shove to the west meaning that most any significant convection today will be west of the spine of the state after 5pm. There is still a chance of coastal activity along and east of I-95 before 2pm, but after that all bets are off.

Depending on far the most eastern convection intiates and where, will dictate whether one will succumb to a late afternoon cirrus/cirrostratus shield since anvil level winds remain from the SW.

Mid-Long Term: Too iffy. The GFS has to be totally disregarded for the time between 12 & 13 August (Wednesday and Thursday), as it makes such a rapid shift in the location of the ridge axis within a 12 hour period that it's totally unrealistic. Therefore, at this point everything will hinge on how far north the axis makes it (will it work into the Carolinas or stay much further south?).

If it works into the Carolinas then this easterly flow pattern could be in place for two weeks or more, and if it only makes it to N. Florida/S. Georgia every day could become a challenge contingent upon whether a strong enough impulse digs the trough located futher north southward or not. But that's another day.

10:30AM (UPDATE)

(Photos are from 11:45am today over Cape Canaveral. The top right one is a circumhorizon arc. Google search that term for more cool photos of them)

Nothing much significant to add from the 9:00AM post. Latest models that I use for the short-term have completed running through tonight and they vary fairly significantly as far a rain coverage, timing, and location is concerned. SURPRISE. Latest sounding out of Tampa reveals that the 850mb ridge axis is almost due overhead now, so I don't think we're going to squeeze another thunderstorm day out of this east of I-95 after today. Temperatures aloft are only moderately unstable and steering winds are so light from the S-SW that propagation, seabreeze, and outflow boundary interactions will dictate storm 'motion'. Storm strength will be light to moderate with maybe a strong one or two thrown in, but the main threat will again be blinding rain and water ponding.

Of the three main models used for today, including the local WRF, I'm hedging toward a blend of the WRF and RUC. By the way, the RUC is now breaking out rain by 1-2pm (earlier run didn't break it out until nearly 6pm) but the local WRF is not. The NAM seemed overdone yesterday (for yesterday) and for today as well, but has eased off a bit. Regardless, it is being discarded.

What this all means is, there will be some earlier convection again but a tad further south than yesterday's. After that, I'm hedging toward where the WRF picks up, which is that all the activity relocates just west or along I-95 and spreads its lovely anvil debris across the coastal locales. Oddly, the WRF does not break out precipitation further north but rather in the quadrangle area of Osceola, Brevard, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties. It then propagates north up the seabreeze spreading anvil debris along the way over the coast and killing all prospects. The only decent thing about this prospect is that this doesn't happen until after 4pm , thus leaving plenty of opportunity to head toward the Fish Camp off 520 or into west Osceola county from an given locale (causeway) in Brevard.

Thursday, August 6 (9:00 AM)

Another beautiful morning in Cape Canaveral. Went to the beach to shoot photos. Please note that a follow up forecast/analysis will be posted between 11am-1pm.

The two strongest storm'ie' systems this morning were over W. Central Kansas and the Florida Keys which I thought was pretty interesting. Can sum up today pretty easily...not much change. The Tampa sounding hasn't come in yet nor have the 12z runs, but 00z models are fairly consistent with each other so far in the mid-term, whereas short changes are inevitable.

The difference locally this morning is that there is more activity over the Atlantic than yesterday, but this will have no affect locally. Winds aloft change little in speed or direction today (they do increase a tad at 25,000 ft) and moisture at all levels will remain abundant. Expect sea-breeze onset between 10:00-11:30am with the ever present coastal activity to begin within 1-2 hours before/after that.

Worthy of note, the RUC is not indicating any pre-seabreeze or initial seabreeze activity along the east coast today (but the NAM is), but rather leaves it all for sometime after 2:30pm, so that will be interesting to see which one verifies. If it does initiate there is always the remote possibility of a funnel along or near the intercoastal/coast. Was looking pretty good yesterday shortly before noon but no cigar. We might be better off if the early stuff doesn't initiate, as that seems to kill coastal instability from the get go leaving mid-high cloud grunge.

Storms will again have a hard time making it east of I-95 later in the afternoon although some of the stronger ones will make it in strong format to US1 (based on consistency of the past few days). Strongest activity to reach the east coast will most likely be from Titusville and north. Not expecting any severe storms today but rainfall totals might add up once again as they did inland yesterday. Not all the CoCoRAHS reports were in yet last I looked, but radar estimates confirm that indeed the heaviest rainfall yesterday was right along I-95 and west (except again...N. of Titusville where it made it to the coast). Inland totals were 0.5" to just over 2" although TV last night mentioned some totals over 4"). Most coastal locations received a trace or less. I'll check CoCoRAHS again before making the late morning/noon forecast update.

1:55PM EDT (UPDATE)

Just got back from Merritt Island and had the opportunity to see an attempt at an attempted act. I took more pix while crossing the rivers but accidentally reformatted the Memory Stick while in the process of shooting these, so those pix are lost. In any case, I wasn't hoping for anything more than a small funnel. Mostly just putting these pix up to show those from not around here what this initial seabreeze stuff looks like. The pictures I lost definitely showed better structure though from a slightly greater distance.

As a forecast update, things are starting to look a tad flaky. This early onset of coastal convection combined with activity that has already worked half way across the state might spread anvil debris this way by 4:30pm. At time, though, it looks like that won't be an issue. The other fly in the ointment is that a bounary from SE Florida seems to be racing fairly rapidly NW toward the west coast seabreeze. When the collision occurs it could be as early as 4:00pm...however, if it collides far enough to the west and southwest it may be of little impact to the immediate east coast. Actually, it could set off an outflow boundary back to the coast late..like after 6:00pm. Gotta love the evoluation of the chaos.

9:55AM (UPDATE)

As expected, an update is minimally required. Sounding this morning from TPA looks similar to yesterday morning. All things considered, it looks better than last nights but (again) similar to the morning's yesterday. So what I need to do is copy and paste my forecast for yesterday into today...you can read that. :-) Seriously though, if you read Tuesday's discussion further down it says it all.

The only thing really different from my earlier post for today is that there is yet another remnant vorticity max. coming down off the Florida Panhandle just like yesterday which adds another element of surprise into this afternoon's casserole. :-0

Perhaps, things will be closer to the coast then previously expected. Of course, yesterday I thought that under these circumstances something strong would possibly hit the coast in the strongest of storms, but that never materialized; however, today is a different day, and in today's case there's no guarantees either pro or con. This means one can be either disappointed or glad, depending on whether one wants it to rain or not.

(Off the Cuff: Models this season have continuously been seemingly 2-5 days ahead of themselves in the mid-long term forecasts, and even day to day changes in the short-term have been a smidge above being merely cosmetic in nature. Prime example is this past spring when the Death Ridge over the Plains was supposed to lift out during Vortex2's Romp on the Plains and it took a good 1 1/2 months for that to happen when data kept implying it would take no longer than 1 week.) Locally, our "East Coast of Florida Death Ridge" was supposed to have been in play initially a week ago shutting our convection down east of I-95, yet the ridge axis continues to fall short of shifting north beyond a Cape to Brooksville axis. Seems these short waves and nocturnal MCS impulses over the Plains and into the MidWest which are riding down the back of that stubbon upper level Hudson Bay low just prevent the trough from lifting out in totality. Much to this writer's glee.

BACK TO TODAY: Local analysis using LDIS (the link is off to the right in the 'Oft Used Links' column) actually shows some increased moisture over East Central Florida from earlier this morning in the Average Steering Flow/Moisture composite. I take this simply as verification that nothing much has really changed and that the environment is simply readjusting from last nights activity. I noticed that yesterday we also were a moisture bulls-eye shortly before initiation, but nothing actually happened here...so that's a "take it for what it's worth".

But for what it is worth, I'm pretty happy with today's sounding. It couldn't quite do what it looked like it would do yesterday...doesn't mean something more won't transpire today. Looks overall like 2-4 strong storms in Central Florida (maybe some will warrant a severe warning). The most likely guarantee will again be heavy rainfall in the blessed locales due to slow and eratic storm motion. Hope my rain gauge will be one of the blessed today :)

Maybe it will be a Manatee Park Chase Day, but definitely not hanging my hat on that one. Preferably I'd like that most not because of reduced driving, but the best looking storms are inevitably right on the coast as the gust front and remanent updrafts pass over the warm intercoastal waterways which stand upright against the seabreeze in the lowest 5000 feet.

7:30AM (UPDATE)

Can't stand it any longer. Decided to go ahead and post some early-in-the-day forecast musings. Based on current RUC trends, last night's NAM and GFS, water vapor loops, and surface observations... today doesn't look much different than yesterday. Inevitably, an update to this discussion will be required after sounding data becomes available. Namely to see what Tampa's (TPA) mid-upper level temps. & winds reveal. Otherwise, there are no triggers detectable, which means we'll have to depend on the usual. Like yesterday, storm motion will be determined by how far inland the seabreeze (SB) will march before convective onset in conjunction with outflow boundary (OFB) interactions and propogation along said forth. What this all means is that motion will be unpredictable at best with highest concentration west of the east coast seabreeze in Volusia, Orange, Osceola, and Lake Counties. Any storm that actually makes it to the coast after 5pm will do it based on outflow from earlier activity as steering ALONE is too weak to fight the seabreeze. In these cases, without some outside help, whatever reaches the coast would be light rain and some anvil lightning (generally...debris) .

In this musing, I'm learning that one can't compare what the previous day did here (in THIS summer setup) even if the soundings are similar. Namely because the aforementioned collisions and undetectable microscale parameters that mother nature has up her sleeve leaves the affects of collisions or even initial shower/storm development a unique "experience" each and every time they happen (even within one day). This can vary from having possible funnels/spouts along the coast and intercoastal before or during full bore seabreeze initiation (which is possible today suppositioning there will be very weak winds aloft which is going to be a given) to the result of outflow collisions (assuming there will be more than 2 storms within 50 miles off each other). Combine them all and what you end up with is a mish-mash slop fest if there is too much a good thing. Thus, I try to get to not the first storm of the day (unless it's very nearby)..but rather wait until after a few have gone up (but not always...how's that for being vague?). BUT NOTE: Not all summer setups are the same just like no two days within a given setup are the same.

As of this writing (now 7:40am) a deck of stratocumulus has suddenly materialize which may be indicative of residual midlevel moisture (which is shown by all the models to be in place). They also show this moisture to dissipate by 2:00pm today at all levels which actually could be a good thing for later photo opportunities. This residual stuff often leaves around too many clouds during shower/storm formative stages for good structure shots.

In Summary: We will have CAPE today with decent LIs, seabreeze convergence from both coasts, ample moisture..thus, it's summer in Florida. Best bet is going to be right down and west of I-95 after 3pm, not to discount the possiblity that something flooky (such as a funnel) could occur east of US1 before that time. Storm strength before 3pm should be weak with little to be seen structure wise, even if one does produce a funnel.

Update to follow upon latest data availability.

Wednesday, August 5

Made my first post just 10 minutes ago and still trying to get the feel of this Blogger, so things should improve with time. The photos above and to the left are from Monday in Cape Canaveral near the Manatee Park. Never posted any pictures from yesterday as there was nothing worth taking a photo of after driving into Osceola and Orange Counties. I got into stuff going thru Eastern Orange County after it suddenly shifted out of NW Brevard..but it was already in a rapid weakening phase. Originally was thinking of heading toward Kissimmee as that's where a 4 way collision was imminent..but opted not to because it was too far, time of day/traffic/location, etc...and visual clues showed that newer stuff was going up south of the northern stuff. On radar it looks like movement, but in reality it was propogation. Just noticed that the NWS was surprised there were no Storm Reports from yesterday considering how radar looked. My guess is that anything reportable probably occurred where few folks live (if that's possible around here...LOL). But the stuff I was on was about the strongest at the time I was on the road based on radar loops upon returning home from Wx-Tap. The worst happened over the St John River Valley Basin in NW Brevard County west of Titusville which in layman's terms is defined as "swampland" and in another cluster along the Indian River/Osceola/Brevard County Intersection...which in layman's terms is "no man's land".

For now, though, I went ahead and posted some photos from Monday, August 3 taken in Cape Canaveral near the Manatee Park off A1A. Today's forecast will be posted later this morning after "currenter" (if that's a word) data becomes available as it's only 4:30am at time.

From last nights data though, today looks about the same as yesterday with ever so subtle differences as you'd expect since no 2 days are exactly the same. The sig change seems to be coming beginning later Thursday as ridging develops at all levels leaving us in an onshore flow regime with 0 thunderstorms on the immediate coast.

Tuesday, August 4

I've hemmed and hawed at what I can see on data so far, neglecting almost totally the forecasted precip. portions of the models. Basically all that was required was the TPA sounding and latest water vapor loop which was beneficial for sure. In fact, after watching it my hopes are probably unduly hopeful.

Number 1: temps aloft are a tad cooler today with something funky at 700mb, and 2: there seems to be something embedded in the vapor loop that's being forced SE off the GOM FL Panhandle coast rapidly moving toward TPAs area of responsibility. No AFDs are alluding to either though. But it sure seems to me that the activity over in the eastern GOM right now is indicative of what may enter MLBs fcst arena later (albeit it's meager, but there was nothing there yesterday at this time).

If it is real, it might be what's needed to give anything that develops an eastward nudge against the seabreeze coz it's going to need it today with those winds aloft of 10kts or less (less than yesterday).

So all things included, today looks like stronger storms and even slower motion. Once stuff goes up...and assuming there will be at least 3 storms within 50 miles of each other by 4:30pm..motion will be almost solely dictated upon c-breeze/lake breeze/outflow boundaries and propagation along said forth. In other words, unpredictable at best (can it be any worse?)

Another fly before being done for now, is what will happen in Part 1 of the day? With the lighter winds, more than sufficient moisture, and recycled air...is there the possibility of an actual funnel along the coastal waters before 2pm?
Looking at the sky right now it's hard to even consider it ...I mean..it's absolutely clear right now without a speck of cloud and it's 10:30am.

We'll know sure enough I guess. I hope I don't have to go anywhere today...and maybe there'll be no reason to if nothing fires which I originally thought would be the case...but clearly I'm leaning away from that now despite what the models are depicting. So what it all amounts to is this.."another summer day in Central Florida...roll the dice..."

====================================================

With a little luck, managed to create a "diary" of yesterday's storm evolution...from initial Cu development during c-breeze onset at 12 noon, to TCu at 1:52pm as the c-breeze began it's westward march, and eventually CB at 5:15pm with a very typical Florida Gust Front appended as the storm crawled back SE across the intercoastal waterways toward the coast. Saved some satellite/radar imagery to accompany the time/date stamped photos to complete the package.

There was actually a severe issued at the time of the photo adventure, but not for this storm. The warning was for a storm behind this one which I couldn't even see. After taking the pix, I came home and watched the fun transpire on Wx-Tap watching multiple boundary(s) collisions [multiple stressed :-)] and cell propagation along boundaries and the c-breeze. Was tempted to hit the road again to head inland but figured that relatively short storm life, and by that time cloud cover/structural integrity inland, precluded the feasibility of vying for that option. as tempting as it was.

If interested you can see the pics. I only uploaded two other pix (of the many I took) from yesterday accessible to the right of the one that will pop up under "Weather and Storm Photographs (set):

http://tinyurl.com/n2gzoq