"Florida Front Fiascos" By George

The atmosphere is not feeling well today, nor is my cat "Lola" (give her a click)

It's sort of amazing today actually, having a front situated across Central Florida in August?! I don't recall that ever happening. The graphic above is showing the Convection Available Potential Energy forecast for this afternoon. One can see where the boundary between No CAPE and some of it lies. But it's not that easy......

With that, the forecast becomes somewhat problematic as far as how far north will the precipitation line make it today from it's current location (?)...which can be either parallel and over I-4 from Tampa to Daytona, OR along a secondary leading trough that lies somewhere in S. Brevard along the coast. The second trough, having passed N. Brevard..has shifted the wind temporarily to the NE along the coast as of 1:30pm in Cape Canaveral. This should be short lived though as it mixes out by 4pm and the c-breeze becomes the dominating feature.

In any case, it seems it will be that second trough that will determine where earlier preciptation can form (south of it), otherwise it could be well near sunset..if at all every where else between that boundary and the I-4 'front'.

As I type, a line of towering Cu that extened from the Cape across Merritt Island and into SE Orange County literally got its head cut off right through the middle leaving remant stratocumulus and the ends stranded aloft. The line is attempting to re-establish itself now but the Cu further south have become greatly diminshed with my guess being the passage of the second boundary (which is not depicted on any of the models)

Until the atmosphere can recycle and swings/veers to the SE we are pretty much in limbo. It's a waiting game. Anything that goes up today will likely move just E of due North well south of that second boundary..with the exeption of where the second trough lays it s dying remains..that activity may more closely follow that boundary in a more ENE direction.

The one thing that the models seem to have come agreement upon is that the immediate coast might escape rain today altogether..and that most activity will be west of US1 after 5pm. Confidence in strong activity is not very high today, contingent upon how well that second boundary can mix out. If it doen''t mix out as thought, then rain chances will be low except maybe well west of I-95. Where the air is more greatly modified back to normal levels and away from the seabreeze.

Man Your Battle Stations...The BOYZ Are Back

I love the mock wave poser. No one was around to take my picture in it though. Darn!

Good Bye Bill...you were nice while you lasted. At least that's what the surfers thought. Actually, the waves aren't all that bad this morning. Went to the pier to take some photos for the morning blurb and to try to hone my photo skills a bit. Didn't help. But I did get to meet a very nice dog, some surfer dudes who wanted to 'borrow' some money, and got a beach worth of sand between my sandals and my feet. It's still between my toes. It was fun!

And yesterday, despite my failings to get some good surfing video due to being there too early (too early? me?) I did make a little 'Virtual Tour of Cape Canaveral' video. It's over there on the right..under High Speed Dirt Video..the top one. I confess, it wasn't my idea. I saw another one on YouTube but I didn't like the way it was done..and since I had nothing else to do I thought that since I'm already here I'll just video the trip back..set it to music, and a star is born..not quite, at least not in this lifetime.

Yesterday panned out to be very interesting in Cape Canaveral with 3 separate storms moving thru over the course of 2 1/2 hours...each with a character and structure all its own. None were particularly strong or excessive lightning producers, it was the boundary that had been set up and the way the surface winds were all over the place right around the Cape that set the wheels in motion. Not sure how much different today will be but this is the pre-diagonsis of the atmosphere even though no new data has come in. (I guess that's why one could call it the pre-diagnosis).

The upper level trough has an interesting vorticity maximum rotating around into the base of itself this morning; however, I don't think it will have any affect on our weather today - - directly. Indirectly, more numerous storms could go up just north of here and send out a boundary to meet the sea-breeze..which actually isn't too much different than yesterday. There is a part of me that suspects the boundary is still there, but that's too much to ask. But it's something to consider. Yesterday it really wasn't apparent until all the activity flared up to the north and the southern extent was right on the boundary. It was almost magical to witness in and of itself.

There is something going on in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico which may be a harbinger of things to come...and I'm going to latch on to that feature for the sake of this discussion. Upper level moisture today again is not tremendously abundant (surprisingly), but it wasn't yesterday either. The biggest difference that I can tell for today is that the winds aloft are a smidgen stronger. The sea-breeze will kick in today from the Cape south...but it might not be until after 1:00pm. So it could be another hot one today. Canaveral got up to 95 yesterday (and I caught on video -- see for yourself -- the video of the thermometer is posted (gad); couldn't believe it. But it dropped 7 degrees in half an hour when the sea-breeze kicked in. That was the magic ingredient yesterday...both it's timing and how far west it got...in combination with that aforementioned boundary. I doubt it ever got past Merritt Island at best. The old tail of Bill's trough as mentioned yesterday must have been laying across Central Florida and the sea breeze coalesced along it..one storm went up..sent a boundary back to the west..and another went up almost right behind the first and followed that same boundary. It was quite the parade of characters coming to town yesterday. All the storms looked different. Quite bizarre actually.

Okay, for today. No early day stuff. Sea-breeze between 12:30pm - 2pm (this is where it gets tricky...will there even be a sea-breeze?). It barely manifested itself yesterday and today looks like an even bigger challenge. Assuming it does kick in (for now), storms may very well be in the making by 1pm and should push ENE at about 10-15mph to meet the BOYZ marching along the front lines (over the marsh lands). Maybe today will be the gust front I was hoping for yesterday, although yesterday was better than a gust front so I'm not complaining. It could be interesting once a few storms get going and the boundaries interact. It's better if we don't have too many storms (unless you really like to get wet)...but for the sake of someone who would like to get a good structure shot ...I prefer to hear wildly scattered to scattered rather than numerous. But today does look like it could fit the scattered bill. It will become clearly evident what most of the storms are going to do today as far as motion once they start to go up. So far the stuff in the GOM and some spritzes near Ocala are rolling right along quite nicely to the ENE to NE as they should since that 's the direction the wind is "upstairs" . If we get real lucky we'll find one that would prefer to misbehave and shove south along the boundary. But such antics are unforecastable. That type of thing remains a mystery (at least to me).

I downloaded everything off the camcorder yesterday, and since I most inconveniently happened to NOT have the camera charged yesterday, you can bet it will be (and IS) today!

Today's Menu: Surf n' Turf

At the beach: Photographers, surfers, tourists, and locals all here to see the big surf and experience extremely dangerous rip tides. What a blast! (ya gotta click on'm to get the full effect)

What a great day, huh?! Not often we have a "Surf-n-Turf" day, when there's the best of both worlds! Went down to 27th St. in S. Cocoa Beach to try the hand at surf video/photography but was too early. The sun was right in my face and the glare off the ocean made it virtually impossible to see anything let alone the surfers who were ripping the waves apart at my old stomping grounds -- the waves were about 2-4 ft overhead, clean, glassy with decent form. If I had half a brain, I'd be back there even now, but I don't want to drive thru all the traffic to do it. And by this time of day on a beautiful Saturday as it is..there WILL be traffic on A1A. So I took some photos at the beach here. The waves in Cape Canaveral as a golden rule are general 2-4 ft smaller and don't have the form. Maybe next time I'll go south at the right time, and there will be lots more "next times" into fall when I can focus on the surf and the thunderstorms have gone away..and it usually works that way ;-). That's one thing about the small wave surfing capital of the U.S. - "my surf, my beach, my wave."

Today ("The Turf"): Deep layer mean (DLM) WSW flow is beginning to set camp over Central Florida, DLM other than a nice little seabreeze that should set up by early afternoon --the magic ingredient. The preciptable water values from TPA did not come in super encouraging, and it looked like there was a slight cap at 700mb. However, I believe that given lots of ample heating which we will have today that things will start to ramp up after 2pm and march toward the coast. Hopes are in the "high" range for a good "gustfronting" upon the area today! We may even keep that light seabreeze pinned close to the coast. I can't imagine a better set up. This could be a classic.

(The "Surf") Meanwhile over at the beach lots of energy is being generated by Bill in the form of long, deep swells generating powerful waves and great surf! Nice and glassy this morning with a 5 mph offshore wind and about 2-4 feet overhead surf at S. 27th St. in Cocoa Beach. Watch out by noon time during the outgoing tide though. It's likely the swells are digging trenches in the ocean floor which will serve as foci for strong undertow/rip currents as the tide pulls out... and indeed the NWS is calling for the extremist of conditions today. Given it's the weekend I wouldn't be surprised to hear of up to 100 rescues oout of Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties. It seems so much like a June day today. I just can't believe it. Hey, you can join the fun. Just click under the videos to the right where you see the blue sky..a virtual drive up A1A :p

It's a Beautiful TGIF Morning in Cape Canaveral

Photos are from the beach this morning.That's somebody's home in the center

Today: I should just say "read yesterdays" because the thinking for what today will be like hasn't changed. Nor has the thinking changed for Saturday and Sunday. But I'll regress...today will be much like yesterday with less chance of local activitiy in the morning...but still a small chance of something before 2pm. Steering winds at the Space Center are 5 knots or less the whole way up toe 30,000 ft...and there's plenty of moisture. Problem is that with such light winds and no apparent trigging mechanism I'm not sure how things will get started too early. So that does pose a small problem..but for the most part even if something does go up locally between Ft Pierce and Oak Hill east of US 1..it will be weak and small. Not sure why there isn't a spout potential this morning advertised... LOTS to learn.

By this afternoon in the 3-5pm time frame the seabreezes on both coasts will have become active. With the ridge axis oriented over us that way it is..the bulk of the activity will be right along "lightning alley " (the I-4 corridor). Have a hard time rationalizing how anything will make it back to the coast South of Oak Hill, but there is that remote chance we could see another Fish Camp scenario set up after dark which would be great for lightning shots.

Tomorrow: the influence of Bill will be pulling away (subsidence) and the upper level trough will begin to penetrate North Florida..allowing for a SW flow to become established. For now, I'll leave tomorrow and Sunday both at typical afternoon and early evening stuff only as good ops, and not in the morning. ..and will vary that thought based on how things evolve. There are several possiblites as to what they might be...but I'm leaving out the ifs, ands, or buts and prefer just to provide that much of a heads up for now.

Good Bye Southeast Flow

Lola is catching up on her history lesson. Yeah..I find history boring too.

Today: Hurray! A change is in place. This became apparent last night as can be seen in the radar image from around 11:30pm. This cluster of storms moved north with a trend of working toward the coast; however, it died across the burial grounds of unworthy storms (i.e. the swamps).

Set-Up: Upper level ridge that has been elongated across the Deep South will sink south and be almost right across us today. This is in response to a large upper level trough that is digging down the Belt Ways of Alabama and West Georgia. It can be noted that it is this same trough that will steer Tropical Cyclone Bill into the Netherlands of the Atlantic Ocean as a 'fish storm', although the folks up in Nova Scotia might want to have their casting nets ready just in case. Since the ridge will be over us today..if not a hair line fracture to the south, we will lose the pesky ESE to SE steering flow that's been plaguing us for so long. In essence it's going to seem a lot like the "June Days of Summer" the next 3 days, particularly Saturday and Sunday.

So what gives?: Good question. The ridge snaps right down the middle leaving the majority out in the Atlantic for Bill to deal with while the rest takes its sabbatical in the Gulf of Mexico as the trough drops right in between the two and gives us a nice pat on the head...in the form of SW-WSW steering flow. Too boot, Bill will be leaving his tailing trough to fill in the gap where the ridge departed. A nice, moist tail at that too.

But there's a fly in my soup!: Yep, it's called "warm air aloft". This "mourn"ing's sounding does reveal that to be true, but I don't think it will be so much as to inhibit convection completely. The other thing to consider is subsidence both just to the south of the base of the 500mb trough as well as in the periphery of Bill's umbrella.That is today and most of tomorrow. Look for some bubbly Cu by noon and isolated showers by 1-2pm with storms over the interior and approaching the I-95 corridor in earnest by 4-5pm. Maybe we'll squeeze one out even closer to the coast either early in the afternoon or after 5pm.

The Weekend is looking more hopeful. Bill will have pulled far enough away and the trough will have dug a smidgen further south opening up the flood gates for SW Flow aloft while maintaining a high probability of a seabreeze pinned to the coast. Best chances for storms at this time seems to be east CENTRAL Florida for a change too. We're due. Looks like we may be gust fronted at least twice in the course of the next 5 days. So I'm cleaning off the lens and putting some fresh memory sticks in the camera. I wonder if I'll ever use the rest of the film in that camera. It's probably decayed by now.

Monday: Back to the dog days of August and the same old song and dance. Unpredictabe weak tropical waves. However! There's hints of a fairly strong one evolving just to the north of the Bahamas by mid week.

Early Evening Forecast Discussion

Precipital water has dropped this evening to 1.84" which might explain the lack of activity along the east coast today (along with warmer 500mb temps than the past few days). But this will all change gradually during the course of Thursday and Friday.

We'll be in transition of a nil to slight favoring of the east coast Friday and especially Saturday thru Sunday, and with Bill wagging his tail (sfc trough) as he goes by it could get interesting in these parts. The impression I see is there will be a lingering trough with very light flow leaving room for a diurnally driven sfc trough to form down the spine during max heating with little flow aloft until Saturday when a strong SW flow returns to the state ... which will then favor the east coast for two days.

After that, as if this was written in stone..it's going to be back to using satellite/water vapor imagery to do mostly post-haste nowcasting as stuff will be coming off the ocean where there is no upstream data points.

In a nut shell..east coast or close to it for the weekend. Until then we'll have to succumb to the forces that be and play it on a nearly hourly basis since chances of precip will exist at any time but most likely late morning thru mid afternoon.

Tuesday, August 18 (10:35am)

NOW: Latest KSC sounding and local LDIS model reveals a very moist and moderately unstable airmass over East Central Florida this morning with no capping. Evidence is in the picture below taken at 8:30AM. Latest RUC analysis depicts a weak, low level trough embedded in the ESE steering flow which should be making "landfall" around 2pm this afternoon.......

TODAY:..... If we aren't unstable enough now, we will be then. Unlike the past two days, it looks more likely that showers could persist at any time today and into tonight. Heavier storms will be west of I-95 once the showers encounter some frictional drag as well as uplift from the heated landmass of the peninsula. Big Storm or two west of Orlando with heaviest threat being lightning in abundance and heavy rain. Storms should keep on marchin' though..so big time accumulations shouldn't occur execpt in areas that happen to get more than one dousing.

TOMORROW: More of the same. Looks more like a more significant tropical wave in association with "Remnant Ana" will pay a visit late tonight into Wendesday continuing if not increasing our chances of rain through the day and into the night. It is currently beginining to spread its ashes toward S. Florida.

FURTHER OUT: The overall pattern will start to shift from an "unpredictable stream of inverted troughs off the Atlantic"...to more of a "back to the continental trough digging south across the SE U.S" regime which has plagued us all summer. Placement, and therefore the resultant outcome, will be the factor in determining what each day will bring us. Thus, each day can be a new story. How exciting!

Had to throw in this photo of my cat, Lola. She loves her new necklace I bought for her yesterday.

August 17 (10:00am) -click for official Forecast Discussion for Cape Canveral Area

Went to the beach this mornig to watch the launch. Very nice. For today...

"In a nutshell" post: East Central Florida remains in subsidence behind remnant Claudette and ahead of the upper level low pressure area slowly approaching the Florida Straits. Given the fact that there were some showers around late yesterday afternoon, over night, and currently well off shore it's a good bet that this pattern will continue and in fact increase a bit throughout the day and tonight.

The overall available moisture has increased nicely since yesterday, so would expect greater coverage inland by late afternoon. 500mb temps are actually much cooler today so thunder isn't out of the question west of the state's spine.

Expect that given the deeper layer moisture off the Atlantic and cooler temps aloft, in combination with the lack of any intruding factors, that this pattern will continue with periods of showers dictated by "waving" motions in the mid-lower levels which generate the showers in cluster batches.

Sunday, August 16 (9:40am) (NWS click)

Lightning flash photo taken with my camcorder. The map (click to enlarge) is my best guess for enhanced tornado threat. The cat is Lola, my soul mate :-)
TODAY: Not much to say really. We have everything against us today. This morning East Central Florida lies within two regions of subsidence - to the east of now Tropical Depression 4 and to the west of an approaching TUTT low. Atmosphere has dried considerably since yesterday and winds in the mid-levels are unidirectional out of the south with very light jet stream winds above that. In short, there's nothing going for us today to generate storms if even a rain shower. Only a very remote chance of something weak inland after 3pm, but even that might be generous.

TROPICS: : Watching TS Ana and Bill. Current projected path has them heading toward C. Florida at this time then curving either south a tad and across the Florida straits..or northward toward Bermuda. ..OR..one being absorbed by the other. Therefore, I'm not even going to touch that right now and here's why. I'll confidently say that it's unrealistic to make a forecast for such, and thank goodness this is only a blog so I don't have to come off sounding confident to the General Public about something that inside I know no one can realistically know . Granted, I could take a best guess (and I do have one), but chances are if you are reading this you've already heard your share. The mid-long range tropical systems' direction and intensity forecasts from the various models varies significantly both between models and within the specific model's run cycles; therefore, I will not provide "speculation" on these systems until such time it becomes feasible.

I will provide speculation though on TD4. Whether it will strengthen into a named storm is very iffy and impertinent because the net affect is the same whether it has a name or not, but I do think it will become a storm by mid-afternoon. There will be a slightly enhanced tornado threat in the area I have marked in the image above and in maybe a larger area as the evening progresses as well as an enhanced flash flooding threat, paricularly in Alabama along the storms path and just to the east of that into western Georgia.

August 15 (9:00am) -click for official Forecast Discussion for Cape Canaveral Area

Photos taken near sunrise this morning.

Found the Surf Cruiser on the beach.

TODAY is a suprisingly easy one. Deep SE, moist flow this morning will back gradually into the afternoon to more of an easterly component and dry out a bit in the wake of a tropical wave passing just south of the keys. As a result expect any shower activity after this morning to be essentially non-existent east of I-95 and isolated to scattered west of I-95. Exception will be from Ft. Pierce and south where closer proximity to the wave may allow some ongoing ocean showers to persist until late afternoon.

TROPICS: Watching TS Ana. Current projected path has her heading toward C. Florida at this time. It should be noted that mid-long range tropical system direction and intensity forecasts from the various models can vary significantly both between models and within a specific model's run cycles; therefore, I will not provide "speculation" on these systems until such time it becomes feasible.

August 14 (9:00am)

Woo wee...interesting morning to say the least. Things aren't at all like they appear to be when looking out there.

The surface trough axis still lies across extreme N. Florida with an upper level trough still trying to dig into the N. Gulf of Mexico. To the south we have a weak tropical near the Eastern tip of Cuba with moisture surging well out ahead of it. Sounding looks similar to late yesterday although it is trending toward drying, but that won't last long.

Forecast: We will be in a slight drying zone for maybe 2 hours late this morning due to subsidence ahead of the moisture surge as evidenced by the drying trend on the KSC soundings the past 8 hours as well as the vapor loop. An area of showers formed off the coast as depicted by the 'rough and dirty' markup shown above (click to enlarge images) shortly after sunrise along the retreating moisture and that activity is moving with the 500mb flow toward the NE. The leading edge of new moisture should arrive around 12-1pm and initiation should begin within 1 hour after that time in a line running from Sarasota to Port St. John and points south in random isolated to widely scattered fashion.

Remember, as of this writing I haven't seen any new data yet other than the KSC sounding. Activity will continue to develop and become more widespread as the afternoon continues. Not sure why The Weather Channel is saying a 30% chance of rain for us today so it will be interesting to see if that is what ends up happening. Perhaps there's still a lot of subsidence in that moisture surge that would suppress activity but that doesn't seem to make sense. We'll find out soon enough once the Miami sounding comes out. Activity should push off initially to the NE at about 10mph and then more in a south to north fashion as the afternoon progresses. Interestingly, a solid SE surface-850mb level wind is forecast to develop by 1pm along with the surge and ahead of the inverted trough (tropical wave) yet upper level winds remain from the SW. This could lead to wide coverage of activity west of I-95 for a few hours from late afternoon into early evening. Storms should be efficient bolt producers again today (a special statement was issued yesterday solely due to lightning) and due to heavy rain a strong downdraft burst is also likely. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if we hear about a waterspout today somewhere along the intercoastal or along the ocean's shore.

Photo Ops: I don't know, but my initial thinking is that photo ops might not be too good today. I just can't ever recall seeing a good gust front approach from the SSW-SW. Maybe the WSW but I don't see that motion today at all. Upper level winds should steer convection that has developedalready further west away from E. Central Florida so activity further north might actually be supressed a bit due to activity currently happening along the Gulf Coast N. of Tampa and its parent anvils, although there will be convection there as well.

Quick Summary: This is why I mentioned we have an interesting morning and early afternoon ahead of us today. There's going to be a lot of small transitions going on all over the place. Imagine looking at a drop of water on the counter. From the naked eye it looks like..well, a drop of water and nothing more. Now take a microscope to it and see all the amoeba, molecules, whatever moving all around in it. To the naked eye the sky will look like any other day but to the atmosphere there's lots of life in there.

Thursday, August 13 (3:45pm Update)

(left: to borrow J'T'C phraseology - 3 little BOYZ march by a big Mamma who abosrbed them up. The whole clan croaked over the burial grounds of the Florida Swamplands before they could penetrate the front lines)

UPDATE: Slight interesting change required for this morning's post. These changes follow at the end so as to preserve the original thinking. Please see the UPDATE at the end. Original post: The word for the day seems to be "mum" around the offices today. And no wonder, the models are all over the place, so save yourself the time of looking and wait until 11AM to start viewing the latest runs. Although it will be entertaining to see the differences between 00z and the new 12z just for kicks. It's amazing how each run or even the short term RUC varies with every successive output. I should know, I've been up ALL night to watch meteors...

The Problem: How far south and how strong will the surface and upper level trough axises be this afternoon. That's it in a nut shell. Where exactly will they be - or in some cases, IF they will be -- puts steering currents, moisture at various levels, instability or lack there of, all over the boards. At least on this blog all info is unofficial and my job isn't on the line (although my reputation is..and actually, I care more about that). So for now it's what I call the "take your initial gut feeling and run with it because you can be more realistic by 1pm" forecast.

Initial Forecast: This morning the surface front/trough lies on a line running from Cross City to Jacksonville then right along the east US coast to N. Carolina and beyond with high pressure behind it centered essentially over Nashville, TN. The trough will move very little today and gradually weaken during the course of the next 36 hours. CLOSE inspection of the vapor loop reveals a defined mid-level circulation centered over Tampa as of 8:30am which seems to be inching at a snail's pace toward the NE. The upper level trough is deepening into the N. GOM just south of Pensacola and seems to have no inclination to stop digging.

So what?: What this means is that East Central Florida may very well be in the frontal/ascent region (rising air) of the upper level trough. Moisture is coming in both from the SE and SW. And we have a kicker in place (the circulation over Tampa). The latest sounding as of 3 hours ago shows a sudden jump in moisture which coincides nicely with all the aforementioned..to a level that is higher than it ever was yesterday with actually a respectable cooling at 500mb from the past couple of days (and that's all within the past 6 hours). So it seems the wheels are in motion for good rain/storm coverage today. The fly in the ointment is that the RUC wants to blow all this out of the water at the most critical time of the day (around 2pm) surface to mid-level winds wise. For now, that is being disregarded.

This is what: Not unlike other days, there will be some initial development of cumulus and perhaps a good rain shower close/over the rivers in the 10:30am - 12pm time frame. These may actually move little or even drift NE-NNE ward. Then there should be a break in the early afternoon with spotty showers and storms developing across the entire peninsula between 1-3pm and increasing in coverage until dark. Highest coverage will be over the central part of the state due to (1) that region being under the ascent (2) moisture convergence (3) the circulation now over Tampa passing within the proximity.

There could be some prolific lightning makers today as well and some strong downdrafts especially if the moisture levels increase more and the temperature aloft cools a smidgen more, both of which is what appears to be in progress as I type. Motion will be based more upon boundaries collisions and propagation more than anything else (what can we expect, it's August in Florida...and the Panhandle doesn't count) but general motion will be toward the ENE-NE. Expect the main show to occur earlier than yesterday around 4-5pm with the Gulf Coast Breeze making further penetration eastward today no matter what transpires. Stuff made it as far east yesterday as the Brevard/Osceola County line and I see no reason why it won't make it to at least US1 today. Activity shouldn't have a problem exiting the immediate coast from N. Brevard and points north...whereas from Vero Beach South the main show might be over right as things get cranking on a Vero - Yeehaw Junction Line and points north.

UPDATE: Only changes are (1): the noon sounding is yet even more unstable, more moist, and cooler aloft as was the forecast presumption this morning, thus storms this afternoon could be quite vigorous. I plan on eyeing The Great Outdoors - Fish Camp - Kenansville zone, but might need to be advised that the additional surge during collisions might force things further east than seems feasible at this time, thus I'll be on the alert to not stray too far out of position for a race back to the coast. And (2)the little spiral over Tampa seems to be dropping SIGNIFICANTLY to the SSW and is now W. of Key West and still dropping. This may have a big impact on tonights or tomorrow mornings model runs, but it seems at this time that no matter what happens the results will be generally the same. Tropical wave to approach S. Florida by early Saturday morning and exit the area by very early Sunday. Impact on East Central Florida will be greater the further south one gets..but even still it should only mean in increased chance of rain showers and clouds. Saturday could pan out to be a very nice day further north than Ft. Pierce. Friday looks much more like Wednesday was all over again with slightly greater coverage.

August 12, 2003 (Update: 2pm)

Cumulus Along I-95 near noon


KSC 15Z Sounding for 8/12/09

FIRST OFF: I want to apologize for the formatting of some of these posts. I can't control where or how the images are displayed nor make the type column wider (unless I go into indepth, time-consuming HTML decoding)

Local Wx Update: I can sum up this update in one word after having time to digest the latest "everything" - DISAPPOINTING. It seemed promising while driving along I-95 around noon with fairly vigorous Cu going up alquads...needless to say I think that was the highlight of the day. Seabreeze by now has reached I-95 while the west coast one is meandering and not really moving at all. So much for the seabreeze collision theory. Additionally, later sounding data is in as shown (click to enlarge). In comparing this with the earlier post, the PWATs (precipitable water values) have actually dropped and winds other than the surface are 5 kts. or less essentially. In other words, no steering, little moisture except at the lowest levels, less than moderate instability all leads to the following: ----

Today: Convective activity up and down the West coast of the peninsula plus a weak gulf breeze will send out various boundaries into the interior but no further than to generate additional activity from Orlando west. This in turn may send out yet additional boundaries further east which will eventually meet the by then east coast seabreeze near the exact spine around 5pm. Outflows from these activities (showers/storms) will most likely not make it as far as I-95 except further north from Flagler County northbound where some good storms may blossom. Not expecting any sunset activity in the immediate area given all of the above.

Tropical Activity: Another let down. The closest tropical wave (of now many) will likely not make it near C. Florida as the ridge indeed will join forces and block northward progress as discussed yesterday (as a possibility). Additionally, the previously mentioned "potential hurricane" is already history. Gee, this is starting to sound like deciding when to hit the Plains for chasing (sound familiar?). And to add insult to injury, we will be in this so so pattern for a few days until what's left of the wave passes by...then steering currents will most definitively be coming from an easterly component on the back side of the passing wave meaning, no coastal thunderstorms.

But wait!!: There's always tomorrow and another model run. Ah...the life.

"Its seems to me a change is really needed, I'm sick of tra la las, and la de das"

August 12, 2003 (9:00AM)

I'll start off this morning with only the local outlook as that 's all time allows at the moment, but an update to the post and other details will be made by 2pm. Can hardly wait : - ) !!

The morning 10z KSC sounding is shown, click to enlarge.

Today's "Synopsis": As expedited, the trough/ridge Transition is now in Phase 2 with the low level ridge axis in the process of moving south to around Ft. Pierce if not further south. The mid-upper level axis' are right over us as I write and will migrate a tad further south throughout the day in varying degrees. Looks like the Cumberland Plateau trough will penetrate the ridge which will change EVERYTHING late this afternoon from how it is this morning. Thus, I don't put much forecast faith in using this sounding as a "sounding board". What it shows most importantly is the transition from yesterday. Actually, moisture is a smidge better than yesterday but not great.

What this means: Winds wise, expecting a land breeze until noon time followed by a SE-SSE wind around 10mph. Mid levels are general south at 10mph or less and upper levels to become SSW-SW. Surface/Thermal trough down the spine of the state is forecast to develop by all models midafternoon providing a focal point for seabreeze collision, with the collision to occur just EAST of Orlando around 5pm. Expect storms could go up about anywhere along the line up but favoring the Central Peninsula for collision storms in this time frame with even earlier convection along both seabreezes further south.

Current Planning: Might head out toward east Osceola County (contingent upon next update) as things evolve. Not expecting wide coverage as there is some slight capping..but moderate instability and a relatively low convective temperature should overcome that. Moisture is not great either..thus enhancing the low coverage reasoning. Expect once stuff goes up anvil will be spread toward the coast post-haste, so gotta get the earlier ones along the seabreeze collision or all will be lost due to that umbrella.

Possiblities Being Considered: Contingent upon how far east something goes up and how far south the mid-level ridge exis sinks south, there is a remote chance for activity to reach the coast at or after dark which may provide for lighting pix ops. Hoping for something a little more isolated and very pretty today wherever it happens, but not necessarily strong or severe.

Tropics: Post to follow later by early afteroon

Tuesday, August 11 (9:00 AM)

(My Location: click on image to enlarge and read.)

This morning: Phase 1 of the transition began this morning around 4am as a portion of the surface ridge axis sank to Central Florida. Aloft the axis is near Jacksonville which tells the story for the day right off the bat. Due to its close proximity surface winds will be light today and dictated solely by seabreeze onset. The only cloud in the sky right now is right over my apartment thanks to "Cape Magic".

Late morning thru early afternoon will be characterized with a slight increase in low level clouds and possibly an isolated shower in the vicinity of the Cape. Otherwise, any other rain along the east coast should fall from Stuart and points south.

Afternoon and early evening: It will be a little warmer today due to compressional heating, with max temp probably around 1-2pm. Once the influence of the seabreeze is felt temperatures will steady off if not fall 1-3 degrees east of US1 until about 5pm when thereafter diurnal cooling until 10pm will commence. Chances for decent storms don't look good anywhere today in the state, but if I had to pick a spot it would be from S. Central Okeechobee County toward Ft Meyers after 2:30pm until 7pm. Storm motion will be a slow westward drift with outflow boundaries and chaotic motion not much a contributing factor.

Upcoming Days: There is a tropical wave approaching from the ESE that the models are bringing into SE-E Central Florida Saturday morning. The reality as to whether this will actually occur is contingent upon whether the continental trough digging south just along the Cumberland Plateau has enough Umpf-sion to break the ridge axis across us...leaving a part to the west and the other part to the east...leaving Florida in "no-mans land" pressure pattern wise. But it has to lift out or weaken significantlyin the process to allow the wave some leeway. If this happens the wave should have enough in it to penetrate right on up that alley across the East Florida Coast. However, if the ridge can't make the split the wave will likely stay south and fizzle. THEN, if it can't make the split will there be enough in the trough to increase or thunderstorm chances? My thinking is that climatologically, the ridge will hold and we will see nothing from EITHER system :- ( !! In any case, it will be interesting to see what materializes... and this should become more evident in tonights model runs. There is yet another wave (now TD2) to the east and north of this one, but that one won't come into play. But before then we still have to deal with the potential for thundershowers most likely late Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents will be from the SSW so anything the pops close to the coast has a chance of crossing the intercoastal, particularly on Thursday. Friday will be much like late Wednesday, with isolated to scattered thundershowers remaining mostly west of US1.

The tropics: (these are my thoughts only, please reference the National Hurricane Center via the link in the "Oft Visited Links" for official info). The GFS still has the next wave in the series following TD2 (the "fish storm") on the same forecast track and intensity outlook as yesterday's run, although the track is a tad to the east of yesterday's outlook. On this course, it would follow a track VERY similar to that of Hurricane Floyd of 1991.

Floyd was a large and intense Cape Verde hurricane that seriously threatened Florida. It neared the threshold of category five intensity on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale as it approached the Bahamas.As a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States eroded the subtropical ridge over the extreme western Atlantic, Floyd continued to turn gradually to the right. The center of the hurricane paralleled the central Florida coast, passing about 95 n mi east of Cape Canaveral around 0900 UTC 15 September. By the afternoon of the 15th, Floyd was abeam of the Florida/Georgia border and headed northward toward the Carolinas. It continued north and struck the coast of North Carolina and moved up the United States east coast into New England.

Monday, August 10 (9:25AM)

This morning's entry is entitled "Beach Trash". After unsettled sleep last night I thought it would be good to take a walk over to the beach to spur my senses..WRONG! Was greeted by commonly seen locals (who believe me were QUITE drunk) , strange looking seashells, and junk clouds as can be seen in the photos.

For today, the weather looks like trash as well. The surface high pressure axis did decide to move out of South Carolina and is nearing south Georgia but for Central Florida that means little to no change in the current setup. There is ample moisture for large cumulus clouds along the coast up until noontime, and maybe a weak rainshower. Winds out of the ENE will arrive by 1pm and the rest of the day will be like Sunday. Best storms today will be from Fort Myers to Tampa.

Yesterday's storms over on that side of the state took a sabatical (as far as anything decent), which seems was due to temperatures a good 3 degrees warmer at all levels aloft which was not in the forecast, as well as a sudden moisture drop at 800mb. Whether that will be the case for today, well it's too early to say since that data is not yet available. If this morning's sounding reveals the same, then well, their getting hosed royally.

Forecast: Transition may well be underway over night tonight. Winds could veer to S or SSW for a short time before sunrise with the remote chance of a shower during the transition. Don't expect full bore transition though until later Wednesday. For now...would expect some storms closer to home tomorrow early in the day, but the affects should be more apparent late Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropically Speaking: The tropical wave that came off Africa is still holding its own quite well and it looks like it will continue to hold together and organize. We might be talking about a depression in 2-3 days. Now for the fun part. The GFS is actually holding it together into somewhere between a strong depression to tropical storm the whole way across the Atlantic to the southern Bahamas by the middle of NEXT week. It then curves NW and eventually NNW toward Hatteras just off the Florida East Coast and strengthens into a hurricane carving a path up to New Jersey. It's too early to even consider this scenario although if this thing does hold together (and I think it will)..such a path is not out of the realms of possibilites. But just exactly how for west it will make it is up in the air. Main point is, at least the models are showing a "tropical something". First time this season. We shall see.

Sunday, August 9 (7:20AM)

No need to elaborate too much this morning. The "Tampa to Ft. Myers" storm pattern has been fully entrenched (and the evidence is shown by yesterday's radar image as shown). Indeed, rainfall totals recorded yesterday in this zone were between 0.5-1.48". But I wouldn't be surprised if an even higher amount occurred in one or two small areas where data retrieval was not performed.


The only interesting thing of note is that it appears a mid-level short wave will be passing across South Florida today which might enhance storm potential from Yeehaw Junction points south, more likely in Okeechobee County this afternoon as well as coastal shower activity as far north as Cape Canaveral through about noon time (as noted by photo below).

Elsewhere, our despise-able high pressure has moved in and set camp over S. Carolina this morning but doesn't plan to stay for an extended visit. By Wednesday it's going to be forced to take a trip down the coast into our area as an upper level trough swipes from the Great Lakes region into the NE U.S. The net affect will be for an increased chance of showers/storms beginning Wednesday evening through Friday for us close to home..but most likely from I-95 and points west. After that it looks like it will head north again...

.....but this time that might be a good thing in the long run. Seems the tropics are considering a trip toward the U.S. This is just becoming evident this morning as a disturbance steps out the door off the African coast. Long range models are providing a glimpse into what may become a strong tropical wave or depression by the week of August 17th. So we are still looking at a long time from now. Stay tuned!

Saturday, August 8 (7:35AM)

The weather pattern transition which began 36 hours ago is now complete generally speaking. Even between yesterday and this morning (and haven't even seen morning data yet) there are additional changes in this pattern which overall will have no affect on east central Florida. Just by looking at the sky this morning (with a full moon as noted in the picture I've added) indicates that there is a very remote chance of a rain shower before 10AM. But nothing more than that.

The remainer of the day will be partly cloudy due to splotches of cirrus or cirrostratus clouds but generally sunny. One subtle change is in the upper level winds which are no longer healthy out of the southwest; hence, not expecting a cirrostratus shield to cover the area as was the case yesterday.

Overall, looks like a "Ft. Myers - Sarasota" set up (good ole' Ft. Myers). But they're due to get some good storms. This year has not been gracious for that area storm wise. The set up for them yesterday looked promising and sure enough I see some rainfall totals in the 1-2" range were recorded. It will likely be the same for the next few days down there, those lucky dogs. Just once I'd love to catch a West Coast Gust Front. That would be a site to see a front lit gust front one hour before sunset! Photo ops. abounding. There'll likely be some strong storms over there today and wouldn't be surprised to see a warning at some point after 6pm.

Friday, August 7 (9:45AM)

First off: I will begin references to Tropical Activity as this season progresses...stay tuned. But for today, I could go on and on about this, that, or the other, but in the long run what it comes down to is nothing other than weak tropical waves will affect Florida during the next week (or will even develop further than being tropical waves within 800 miles).

No surprises for today. As anticipated, today is the transition day. In fact, the transition is occuring as I type. We have been DEAD calm all morning as the signs of things to come materializes. Even the crickets are cheerfully announcing it this morning. Haven't heard them like this is a while.

Inverted trough axis that passed across S. Florida yesterday exited into the SE GOM overnight and is merging with the ridge axis that's been over S. Florida the past few days. As the trough lifts north and weakens (and by the way weakens the ridge for a brief time) we will be in a NIL flow pattern below 18,000 ft for at least the first half of the day. After that, well that is continued below. :- )

Now, I haven't seen Tampa's sounding data yet for 12Z, so unless every model is off then I'm going out on a limb and posting anyway. Actually, the 00z sounding from last night showed that the transition had begun; therefore, I trust the trend being indictated by the models (which has been advertised for days).

Any chances of convection east of I-95 will have to occur before 2:00 pm. There is unquestionably ample moisture and no inhibiting factors in play today, it's strictly a matter of the Deep Layer Mean (DLM) steering winds. They have been very light to a tad from the SSW the past two days, but today they will be light to being from the SSE. This little change will give the east coast seabreeze an extra shove to the west meaning that most any significant convection today will be west of the spine of the state after 5pm. There is still a chance of coastal activity along and east of I-95 before 2pm, but after that all bets are off.

Depending on far the most eastern convection intiates and where, will dictate whether one will succumb to a late afternoon cirrus/cirrostratus shield since anvil level winds remain from the SW.

Mid-Long Term: Too iffy. The GFS has to be totally disregarded for the time between 12 & 13 August (Wednesday and Thursday), as it makes such a rapid shift in the location of the ridge axis within a 12 hour period that it's totally unrealistic. Therefore, at this point everything will hinge on how far north the axis makes it (will it work into the Carolinas or stay much further south?).

If it works into the Carolinas then this easterly flow pattern could be in place for two weeks or more, and if it only makes it to N. Florida/S. Georgia every day could become a challenge contingent upon whether a strong enough impulse digs the trough located futher north southward or not. But that's another day.

10:30AM (UPDATE)

(Photos are from 11:45am today over Cape Canaveral. The top right one is a circumhorizon arc. Google search that term for more cool photos of them)

Nothing much significant to add from the 9:00AM post. Latest models that I use for the short-term have completed running through tonight and they vary fairly significantly as far a rain coverage, timing, and location is concerned. SURPRISE. Latest sounding out of Tampa reveals that the 850mb ridge axis is almost due overhead now, so I don't think we're going to squeeze another thunderstorm day out of this east of I-95 after today. Temperatures aloft are only moderately unstable and steering winds are so light from the S-SW that propagation, seabreeze, and outflow boundary interactions will dictate storm 'motion'. Storm strength will be light to moderate with maybe a strong one or two thrown in, but the main threat will again be blinding rain and water ponding.

Of the three main models used for today, including the local WRF, I'm hedging toward a blend of the WRF and RUC. By the way, the RUC is now breaking out rain by 1-2pm (earlier run didn't break it out until nearly 6pm) but the local WRF is not. The NAM seemed overdone yesterday (for yesterday) and for today as well, but has eased off a bit. Regardless, it is being discarded.

What this all means is, there will be some earlier convection again but a tad further south than yesterday's. After that, I'm hedging toward where the WRF picks up, which is that all the activity relocates just west or along I-95 and spreads its lovely anvil debris across the coastal locales. Oddly, the WRF does not break out precipitation further north but rather in the quadrangle area of Osceola, Brevard, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties. It then propagates north up the seabreeze spreading anvil debris along the way over the coast and killing all prospects. The only decent thing about this prospect is that this doesn't happen until after 4pm , thus leaving plenty of opportunity to head toward the Fish Camp off 520 or into west Osceola county from an given locale (causeway) in Brevard.