Very Stable Morning - Small Chance of Rain Later

(after a stormy early evening, the Space Coast was treated to a fiery sunset)

Boy, they don't make it much more stable in the atmosphere at this time of year around here as this morning is. It appears there is a light drainage flow down the peninsula characterized by almost nil flow or very light land breeze on both coasts, with a temperature of nearly 75 degrees in Cape Canaveral which is cool by standards of late (by a mere 3 degrees). Morning Cape sounding has an unbreakable cap strength of 4.0 (very strong) and near calm winds the whole way up. Don't expect this to last all day, but it should be indicative of what the first half of the day will bring.

Additionally to the above mentioned, we have some high clouds in the vicinity, but they appear by poking my head out the door that they are mostly along the immediate coast. In any case, with it being so stable right now I'm having a hard time envisioning coastal showers to form in the late morning...so all in all it looks like it will be a perfect beach day until at least 4pm if not later.

Don't think there will be a sea-breeze collision today between the coasts for a number of reasons:

1) differential heating between land/sea is not nearly as great as the early summer when ocean temperatures are much cooler, hence giving them that extra nudge. Expect any sea-breeze to linger within 10-20 miles of either coast with light and variable winds inland most of the day

2) lack of winds aloft won't aid in frictional drag with the lowest atmospheric levels to steer the winds in any particular direction

Thus, expect a very stagnant and probably uncomfortable day inland, with the coasts feeling some relief by noon time.

There does appear to be a remnant mid-level low pressure 'bubble' off the NE coast of Flagler county that was there yesterday in association with the weak stationary boundary that was over the state. From all appearances at this time though, it appears what was left of the boundary has all but completely vaporized into a mere shadow of what it was before (which was a mere shadow!). Hence, without any upper or mid level triggers expect shower/storm activity to be mainly land mass generated around the lakes, Tampa Bay, and "hot pockets" with any motion to be dictated by probably some healthy outflow boundaries after 6pm if one, or a cluster of small ones, can get going. With that a possibility, boundary collisions could generate more storms although not expecting a broad coverage of them.

Be noted that most of the models are indicating a good chance of showers/storms today, so I kind of went "off the norm" this morning to take a wag at the flip side of the coin. It also doesn't mean it can't rain on your head today. Just consider yourself one of the lucky few who get to experience it today :-).

Climatological Chance of "Wet" Today

(pileus clouds from above the top of a building large rain shower over the Banana River, yesterday. Pileus clouds form where humid, stably stratified air is mechanically displaced vertically ahead of rising convection.)

Not much change from days past today. A little deeper analysis of morning data shows the stationary boundary to be in place from just south of a Brooksville to well north of Ormond Beach line. Looks like some fog developed overnight west of US1 and the low clouds streaming across the early morning sky along the coast are the evidence of such (as well as surface observations). Additionally, the KSC morning sounding came in very stable with a low level cap of 2.0 strength (strong). However, moisture at all levels is still in place with a convective temperature of 86 degrees which should get things going with the normal heating of the day.

Unlike yesterday, do not see any real triggers in place for significant convection to get going early. Do believe that with some heating after sunrise and perhaps a weak sea-breeze developing by 11am that some coastal/intercoastal waterway shower activity will get going as the cap erodes. About the only fly in the ointment is just how earnestly the early stuff will materialize..but if that cap does break in a 'sudden' fashion, with such light winds at all levels and ample moisture we might see a funnel cloud from some of the coastal activity....as I nearly witnessed yesterday with the cloud tops exhibiting their pileus formations and low, flat dark bases.

It appears from water vapor analysis that the bulk of today's activity will be east of a Sarasota to Flagler County line (as was the case yesterday)...with typical Lake Okeechobee activity to be in full swing, particularly around Ft. Pierce on the east coast. Don't know how well the Tampa area will fare today. It wasn't too great there storm wise yesterday, and what did occur / happened there yesterday was due to a definitive triggering mechanism that arrived too early in the day. But given that this is Florida in the late summer, no holds are barred...especially when it's the Tampa area with a light wind regime!

As the day progresses, expect the sea-breezes on both coasts to make it inland..but not too far. Not sure if they'll actually collide which could further put a damper on things intensity wise. If they do collide it will be along the moisture axis describe earlier along the east 1/2 of the state. Regardless, expect the east coast to be overcome with higher clouds by late afternoon as convection that forms down near the Big Lake and inland disperses its high clouds across the region in the decent SW-SSW flow aloft.

In short, watch for late morning, early afternoon big rainshower activity along the east coast with a funnel possible if it can get going...then a lull in the early to mid afternoon with the typical afternoon 'stuff' going all segments of Central and South Florida after mid-afternoon with the greatest concentration along the east 1/3 of the state after 6pm. Activity will generally struggle to make it to the coast east of US1...but stronger cells that form closer to the coast...near I-95 could well penetrate into the immediate coastal communities.

Oh, almost forgot forlorn Erika. I'm writing her off for now. Either she becomes an entity again and moves N-NE away from the area near the Bahamas, or becomes a non-entity that moves close by with little to no impact...(as of THIS writing :-).

Sunny Morning Yielding To Stormy Evening

Departing clouds along the beach access path this morning

Looks like a pocket of upper level energy just moved offshore at sunrise this morning. In its wake is a clearing sky and calm wind. That, in combination with some temporary drying of the atmosphere, should yield to a pretty nice morning across the Space Coast until noon time with a light sea breeze moving in by late morning (with minor exceptions as noted below).

Noon time on: this time frame may yield to some pretty interesting weather. The stationary boundary across Central Florida is still there from roughly an Oak Hill location along the east coast to just north of Tampa Bay and south of Brooksville on the west coast. An upper level pocket of energy moving in off the eastern GOM (Gulf of Mexico) is riding along this boundary and appears to moving in an ENE-NE fashion and rapidly approaching the Florida SW Coast. This 'activity' seems to have latched on to what ever was over W. Cuba as well, and the entire ensemble will take a swipe enmasse across most of the peninsula starting late morning and into the afternoon and evening as it progresses in a general NE fashion during the course of the day.

What does that mean for the Space Coast? The day will start off nice; nicer than the past two days...with big cumulus forming along a weak sea breeze by mid-late morning and possibly a shower over or near the rivers. This should be the course of the day with perhaps a thundershower forming around 1pm and thereafter. It's the 2-3pm time frame when that pocket of energy approaches and steering currents go from light and variable to a little more out of the SW along with an increase in moisture aloft that things get interesting. With increased moisture means an increase chance of rain, and for today, thunderstorms. Just exactly how this energy will evolve and mesh with the stationary boundary and heating of the day will be an interesting course of events from Tampa to Ft. Myers and across the state from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville later in the day. One thing seems to be a given, and that is the east half of the state will have more time for convective instability to mount than the west half of the state...so expect more thundery activity today than yesterday and possible training of rain/thunderstorm cells until past sunset...particularily from Titusville to Daytona Beach where the boundary lies.

What about Erika? Glad you asked. Seems at this point I'm willing to poke my head out of this hole in the ground and take a gander. Looks like Erika will stay weak and possibly just an open wave in the next 12-24 hours...but maintain some form of identity nonetheless. Appears it may make its presence none to Southeast and East Central Florida starting mid-late day Tuesday with increased rain chances and a healthy onshore E wind flow (mostly from pressure gradient winds as it meets the forces of high pressure to our north). The central portion of the state may be in the NE quadrant of whatever is left of the system which could spell a lot of rain for up to 48 hours as it completely washes out over the state. More to come on this potential area of interesting outcomes.

Record Rainfall in Melbourne Yesterday. Today?

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.29 INCHES WAS SET AT MELBOURNE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.81 SET IN 1997.

Can't say that record rainfall fell in Cape Canaveral late yesterday. We had a mere 0.31 inches...although surrounding areas got much more. Seemed this area was in the black hole, as often seems to be the case. Will today result be the same? Maybe.

Not much change from yesterday. Seems the quasi-stationary boundary, if one can even call it that, has made a southward drift since late yesterday and is now located somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa on the west coast, and across Melbourne on the east coast. It will waiver during the day as such boundaries do but in general remain south of Canaveral most of the day. Such motion will be indicative of the very weak low pressure 'bubbles' (nearly undetectable) as they move or almost just form and die along the 'boundary'. Such will be the case for the next two days with some minor differences as follows (below).

Today, expect a day only somewhat like yesterday. The main difference will be more clouds early in the day and slightly cooler temperatures due to the clouds. Convective instability will be decreased as a result, so this leaves the question open-ended as to just exactly how great the rainfall totals can be today. At least during the solid daylight period. Note, it could rain just about anytime today, but for now will leave the heaviest "stuff" to occur from early afternoon and points onward. During the early evening hours such rainfall (thunderstorms) is not as reliant on such factors as it is more coerced by the overall 'picture' of the surrounding atmosphere to get things going. Storm motion will again be close to nil, so whoever gets socked might be in for a healthy dousing of the wet stuff...quite measurable to say the least. Instability is below average, so don't expect storms to be particularily strong in character, but the feisty ones will deliver the ever dangerous and deadly lightning bolts. So beware! But there is a change in the offing.

Tomorrow and Friday, it looks like the mid-upper level trough will do a bit of active carving across the area. The frontal boundary will still lay directly across Central Brevard on the east side and across Tampa Bay on the west side of the state druing this process. Continued broad area of low pressure across the peninsula generally depicts the boundary, but now there will be sufficient steering currents from the WSW to move things along. Exactly how this will pan out as far as precipitation goes will be interesting. Both in amount and in type (plain rain or thunderstorms). I'm opting for a down the road vote right now and seeing a mix of both. Motion should be a good 15 miles an hour from the WSW versus the Nil flow we've had the past two days (and will have today as well). This could mean that specific areas won't get those heavy rainfall totals at first appearances, but 'training', or repeated in-flux of storms over the same area, will be quite the possiblity. Thus, we are not out of the woods quite yet (or for a while as far as that goes).

Yes, many eyes are on the tropics right now on entity Erika. I'm not going to place any bets on motion at this time, but in general I don't feel it will be a strong enough tropical system to ever warrant fear in the eyes of the beholder. But for kicks, it bears watching. It could actually impact the area in the late Sunday-Tuesday time frame in whatever morphed form it has assumed. Please keep attuned to posting by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the local national weather service for details.

More of the Same..But More of It

(above..bizarre cloud formation directly overhead. This showed up nicely on satellite imagery)

As of 9am it is nearly dead calm along the Space Coast, and nearly totally clear as well. Storms going up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are not moving, indicative of the steering currents today, although satellite imagery loops are showing a good W-WSW steering flow (for the clouds at least).

Overall, today should be much like yesterday..without going into some of the finer details. With more widespread coverage of the 'rainy' , thundery stuff. The main player today will be a very diffuse frontal boundary draped across the N. Central Peninsula which will likely drop yet further south during the next two days. Low level convergence along this boundary seems most likely tomorrow as it lays directly overhead and weak, nearly indiscernible bubbles of low pressure traverse along it from WSW to ENE.

Today, storm motion will be almost solely dictated initially by sea-breezes pushing inland from both coasts, then once they get going outflow boundaries and storm mergers will be the player. Thus, other than from Daytona - north, and Vero-South, the central coastal locales will have to resort to the luck (or unluck) of the draw later in the day after 5pm. Activity elsewhere should get going though by 1pm...and strengthen in intensity inland after 4pm.

Looks like a dense cirrus shield has already spread over the Tampa Bay region (which is being indicated on radar as light rain) ..this cloudiness is spreading eastward pretty quickly, but I don't believe it will be realized in Central Brevard until early afternoon, if at all. Perhaps a degree or two warmer today as we have started out the day relatively cloud free, unlike yesterday...with a light ENE sea-breeze kicking in around 11am.

The NAM model has been showing much of the state overrun by light rain by 2pm, but I believe this will only be realized as increased high cloud coverage and yet greater moisture aloft. The KSC sounding this morning shows that the 700mb dry slot is about all but gone now, and 500mb temperatures have dropped a notch. This may result in more strong storms as experienced at the blessed locales inland late yesterday.

As mentioned on Sunday, it still looks like Wednesday may be an active day. In the longer range, not looking for anything tropical in nature other than some weak inverted troughs encroaching on the area from the SE adding fuel (moisture) to the 'fire' and keeping elevated rain chances in the offing for the next 5 days.

The Beginning of the Begininning

(pileus.."pi-lee-us"...clouds crown the top of building cumulonimbus in Brevard)

An interesting complex of storms occurred last night around St. Lucie county..unbeknowst to those up in Brevard, but one could see the lightning out there much of the night. That complex has but literally evaporated, but it did send out an outflow boundary up this way in the wee hours providing a good SE wind which has totally diminished now.

For today, mid level moisture has increased nearly significantly overnight, and temperatures from 700mb and upward have decreased approximately two degrees as a result of the U.S. East Coast trough approaching the area. We have some high level cirrus clouds overhead this morning, albeit thin, but nonetheless they are there, and expect these to persist off and on throughout the day as a weak low begins to form off the coast of Tampa during the day. These will offset heating a tad, and prevent the temperature from getting as high along the coast as it did over the weekend.

Light SSW wind this morning should become onshore by late morning, but don't expect the big cumulus line along the coast to develop in any real, organized form due to earlier onshore wind onset and lack of low level instability having time to build before it does materialize.

For the most part, expect today to be uneventful for much of Central Florida with the exception of down around Lake Okeechobee and perhaps the Tampa Bay area which will be closer to the aforementioned developing low.

A stationary boundary/front will remain to the north near a Jacksonville to Crystal River line, but will waiver North-South the next two days. Weak bubbles of low pressure will form either on the Peninsula or off either coast and follow along this boundary thus enhancing the chance of precipitation just about anytime from late this afternoon thru Thursday.

Today, expect that storms will become evident to the eye by the 3-4pm time frame with a weak drift toward the east coast. Could see a greater overall coverage of activity by late afternoon over all the east coast, but expect the strongest of storms to be from a Central Brevard to North Tampa Bay region line and points north which is more encompassed by the upper level low pressure trough, and thus contains colder air aloft.

In essence, keep one's eye to the sky and to the west after 4pm especially and beprepared for some lightning. If we get too much of the cirrus cloud canopy over us during the course of the day, however, all bets are off and we not see a drop of rain.

Looks Like a Beach Day

Photographers Capturing a Cape Canaveral Sunrise

Today's by-line pretty much sums it up. The set up for today is similar to yesterday's, but even less foreboding for rain than yesterday.

#1: It is even drier aloft than yesterday, and unlike yesterday there is no pocket of very moist air aloft looming on the horizon at the level of the atmosphere that would yield storms.

#2: Sea-breeze initiation will be earlier today..by 11am, thus giving the coast less time to become unstable and form rainshowers.

There is moisture out there, but it's all trapped below about 10,000ft. Expect to see some coastal cumulus clouds begin by 10am and start to fill the sky, particularly from Melbourne and points south in toward Lake Okeechobee. They might even grow fairly robust with soft, fuzzy edges indicative of the warm air aloft (which is not conducive for further vertical upward extent).

Not expecting a strong sea-breeze per-se until late afternoon where the typical 10-15mph breeze will be fully entrenched and most of the clouds along the coast will have by that time been torn apart or simply dissipated due to low level forcing mechanisms being destroyed by the stronger low level winds.

Additionally, with the earlier onset of the sea-breeze today, do not expect the temperature to get up to nearly 95 degrees today like it did in Cape Canaveral yesterday. Could get up to near 90 though then hang around 87 the rest of the day.

All in all, it looks like a good day for the beach with no fears of lightning expected, at least not up this way. Having a hard time for finding an argument for lightning anywhere today except maybe St. Lucie and Okeechobee Counties.

Monday and points on? Not much change early in the day but a gradually moistening of the 700mb layer will be in progress although kind of doubt it will be sufficient enough to generate any significant storm activity..it won't be until Wednesday that things get interesting with the approaching of a possible inverted trough (tropical wave) from the southeast which may merge and dissipate just east of the state with the upper level trough that will be nearby. Rainfall chances in any case could go up a notch each day with Wednesday and Thursday appearing the most likely time for widespread rain/convection at this time.

Longing For Some Rain

(STS missions from the past during day light from Cape Canaveral)

There's some local banter going on as to which launches are better - - night vs. day. I think that hands down day launches are better. There's more to see and photograph as you can see above. Night ones are 'pretty' per se, but the overall picture is not nearly as dramatic. I did watch the launch last night, then ran back inside to see the replays on TV which were better, thus not posting any pictures from what I saw..as there really isn't anything to see but a bright ball in the sky. Video would do it a lot more justice, but I expect there will be lots of that on the web before day's end that will well surpass what I saw. Recorded some of what was on TV on our local channel which I might post though.

Weatherwise, today not much change from yesterday but there will be some differences. Danny is pretty much out of the picture now and the dominating weather feature today is a long wave mid-upper level trough poised along the U.S. east coast. Drier than normal mid-upper level air streamed in as feared yesterday, suppressing most convection north of St. Lucie county. Today will be much the same. Expect a light seabreeze to form from the Cape and points south around 1-2pm and penetrate no further west than US1. At this time there will be a chance of a very light sprinkle from Canaveral South...but greatest storm coverage should again be from St. Lucie county in towards Lake Okeechobee as the afternoon progresses. The sea breeze, assuming it does form, may actually retreat by late afternoon and be all but gone as stronger mid level winds from the WSW over run the area late this afternoon.

There are hints that a pocket of moisture now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be moving into the area at that time..thus continuing a minute coverage of possible showers, mostly along the coast except for the better aforementioned areas where storms may linger until sunset. Don't think we'll see as much overall cloud coverage today since there won't be storms going up further west that will send their remnants overhead, creating the mostly cloudy sky we ended up with yesterday.

The temperature along the immediate coast may feel a tad uncomfortable today as it will warm into the low 90s with very humid conditions (as it was yesterday). It might feel very moist out there, but rest assured that just above ground level there is a significantly and unseasonably drier air mass in place.

Sunday-Monday: Expect much the same scenario as Saturday..with a small transition beginning by late in the day Sunday as greater moisture starts to overrun the region. By Monday we should be back to seasonal norms temperature and precipitation wise with storms induced by sea-breeze convergences from both coasts over the interior and making their generic penetration toward the coast and fizzling along the I-95 corridor.

..Transitions Are Always A Challenge

(shown above..just south of the attractions area of Orlando, Fl...2001)

Today is sort of exciting from an atmospheric forecast perspective. As I type this morning, the atmosphere, unbeknownst to the majority, is undergoing some pretty significant changes over our heads right now that could result in some exciting weather late this afternoon. With emphasis on "could".

The steering currents of storm motion are in the process of shifting from the east to the west southwest (WSW). It will be a relatively quick transition in the scheme of things...so that by mid afternoon the directional change will be complete...then later in the day the strength of that change increases.

Additionally, a mid-level cap at 700mb that was in place yesterday which suppressed storm activity is still there as of 6am...the question is to whether that capping mechanism will also be eroded during the transition, thus favoring rainfall in the form of thunderstorms later this afternoon unlike yesterday.

Most of the day will be benign, but I'm leaning faith in the forecast models that are hedging toward ample moisture, instability and dynamics in the form of low level wind convergence east of I-95. There appears to be neutral energy in place aloft this afternoon which doesn't bode well for storms reaching severe limits.

Synoptically speaking, a cut off low that has resided the past two days over the Deep South will fill and start to lift ENE during the day and merge with what is now superfluous Tropical Storm Danny over night tonight. This has been forecasted to occur for two days now, and see no reason to stray from this evolution. Convective Instability to be maximized in a region from Ft. Pierce diagonally NW to Cedar Key, FL on the west coast. This region is also the area where maximum upper level diffluence will occur. Mid and upper level temperatures, however, are not as cold as one could hope for generation of strong storms, in fact, they might be too warm. If that weren't bad enough, there is question as to whether the 700mb cap as alluded to earlier will erode at all...meaning the atmosphere at about 10,000 ft. might be too moisture deprived and warm for storm generation.

With the pros and cons layed out, it is with great uncertainty that a 'forecast' is made. I try to stress that the media and other forms of "information release to the general public" are not provided such free reign to state the not so obvious, which is I why I wanted to start this blog in the first place. Even if no one reads this I can spill my guts out somewhere in frustration and head pounding.

For example, in watching all forms of media release this morning and in weather models, I've seen that the weather can be from one extreme to the other...very wet or totally dry. All given, I'm leaning toward consistency and giving faith primarily in a blend of the NAM and RUC models combined with what I've learned about local affects that the models do not pick up on.

Looking for sea-breeze initiation early, but not making it far inland..and maybe actually retreating back toward the coast by late afternoon. Storms to go up about anywhere in peninsular Florida by noon time, mostly well inland at first and along the west coast..then gradually creeping toward the east coast in early afternoon. Volusia and counties south should realize the transition first..after 1pm as the WSW steering currents increase and previous storm merges further to the west coalesce and strengthen as they shove to the ENE. Points further south will see this resultant change after 4pm.

In my wishful thinking, but not altogether out of the realms of possibilities, some nice photographic opportunities will exist at the Manatee Park between 5pm and sunset in Cape Canaveral or at any open westward facing open expanse from Central Brevard south to St. Lucie County after 5pm. This is contingent that precipitation does not overrun the area earlier in the day...if it does indeed at all.

The core indicator as to whether late day convection (thunderstorms) will be present will be if lighter showers form in the area after 1pm. If they do, that would mean that the capping element is undergoing erosing, thus allowing more robust activity to form later.

So, this is not so much a forecast, as a rounding out of the possibilities that do exist for today, which in many ways is more important than just spelling it out in black and white as media is forced to. So be advised, it can swing both ways today..the good, the bad, and the ugly...or pleasantly benign. Being the weathernut I am...I'd prefer the former.

What about Danny? I see Danny as a dud in and of itself. However, as the storm moves north and a tad closer to the U.S. east coast, with its merger with the continental low pressure system complete it will be a subtropical or hybird system (I need to look it up to see what the difference is). The mid-Atlantic and in particular New England could be in for some tropical storm force gusts combined with very 'wet' conditions, but the storm should no longer be named per se (although for lack of any other reason, it probably will be).

Ol' Danny Boy

(above: Lola excitedly discovering Historical U.S. Tornadoes)

Starting out the morning with nearly clear skies and very light east wind. Expect today to be much like yesterday, but with two distinct weather "periods" defining the evolution of today's events:

1) with shower activity developing right along the immediate coast between 9-10am and continuing up until 1pm with the onset of stronger onshore flow. The magic spot for Central Florida this morning should be over and near the tip of the Cape and secondary preferred area along the Port entrance. Cloud lines should start to develop in earnest by 10am until noon.
2) with the develop of the onshore sea-breeze may also come an enhancement or surge of moisture which is missing this morning in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. This could mean some prolonged activity until about 1pm, but after that time everything should be well along and west of I-95 with the exception of Volusia County and points north. Do not expect thunder today in Brevard County east of I-95.

Ol' Danny Boy - Interesting scenario evolving although none directly related to Danny will affect East Central Florida until late today and especially Friday. Meteorlogically, there won't be much affect as it does not appear that subsidence around the periphery of the system will reach here; but long period, deep swells with long lines (high in latitude but low in longitude (height) so to speak_...might make for long, small closeout surf later today under mildly choppy surf conditions. As Danny moves north a gradual merger with the East Coast trough will ensue and be complete by the time the storm reaches the latitude of the Carolinas. It will then take off to the NNE paralleling the U.S. East Coast and eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia as a sub-tropical entity. Not sure if it will ever reach official hurricane status, although pressure gradient between the system and continental high pressure could create hurricane force gusts along the immediate coast from New England and points north.

What this all means for us: Once the merger with the continental low/trough takes place the storm steering flow that has been in place since Monday will shift to WSW in the wee hours Friday and strengthen as the day progresses, being in full swing by late afternoon, coinciding with post max heating.

There are hints that a dry slot intrusion may also occur at this time which would really put a damper on overall thunderstorm coverage Friday, but not completely. The flow pattern will persist in strength through Saturday, and as what might be extra-tropical Danny moves north the dry slot will follow leaving the area in a greater vertical moisture profile, and hence enhanced thunderstorm probabilities.

Once Danny is completely out of the picture the trough will persist along the U.S. East Coast, and the pattern we've had most of this summer will be re-installed for probably its last fling of the summer. Give it through Tuesday to persist in varying degrees of strength, but after that summer storms might well be over for the immediate coasts for any more than a one or two-sy day period through mid-September...with the west coast of Florida, specifically from the spine of the state and around Lake Okeechobee to the west coast to get the brunt of storms, in majority, after the first week of September for their lasts flings as well.

A cold front will also plunge deep into the Southeast US during the second time in the past couple of weeks, likely breaking record low temps across the mid-west and near the Gulf Coast, but never penetrating quite as far south as Central Florida, hmmm..until maybe Wednesday?
It's at this time that it either crosses us or loses its identity almost right on us.

The westerly steering flow will not be so strong as to offset afternoon sea-breeze convergences though, so there stands a chance of seeing some 'items of in interest' for photographic purposes. Each day will vary in preferred locations, timing of initiation, etc...leaving this lone blog-ster a few things to write about.

What's on the horizon tropics wise? Not much other than that after Tuesday we may be back to unforecastable tropical waves again, with the first giving hints already in the long term range developing around next Thursday (September 3).

Tornado in Trinidad

...a great example of Vortex Breakdown and Roping Out!

...Same Old Song and Dance (click to hear)

It's just got light out, and I need to do a "quick and dirty" due to some morning commitments. The heat index at 5am is 96 degrees if that's any indication of the air mass in place. If I get this right this first time, not only will it be a first, but I won't have to do an update. For today...

Deep easterly steering flow will persist today with gobs of moisture and perhaps a little kicker today ejecting out of the closed low forming in S. Mississippi and across the Central Peninsula this afternoon. Along with the kicker there will also be some divergence yet higher aloft as the upper level low in the Deep South becomes established. So there's two things in favor of storms that we didn't really have yesterday (and yesterday wasn't too shabby as it was). Timing for the east coast for a rain shower could be just about any time but most climatically likely before 1pm and after 6pm. I know...so it will rain at 3:30pm. Like yesterday, thunder not too likely along the immediate east coast but more likely the further west of I-95 one traverses.

Most favorable area for a good storm looks to be from Tampa Bay and NE up into Lake County after 4pm, although a shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out at almost anytime in this area. The southern half of the state's weather will be almost solely dictated by an easterly flow regime whereas further north the aforementioned low/trough becomes a player. Anvil debris shouldn't over spread the East Central coastal areas today as it will be spread more toward Volusia County and points north later in the day under the gentle flow of the upper level trough.

Looking ahead a bit, we will have yet another go at a similar pattern tomorrow until the Tropical System pulls its closest move toward the state and lifts further north putting the state in westerly flow aloft; thus, favoring the east coast for the big afternoon boomers Friday-Sunday. Thursday will begin this transition with near nil flow by late in the day. It seems the system east of the Bahamas will lay low enough to not put the state in subsidence, thus rain chances are not greatly diminished but more likely to be restricted to the interior due to the influence of a west coast-east coast sea breeze convergence down the state's spine. After this scenario plays out the transition will continue over night and by sunrise Friday the new pattern will have begun - growing more established as the tropical system lifts north and merges a bit with the cut off low over the Deep South.

Expect that Friday will be the best day for a neat-o storm as always seems to be the case on the first day of full transition under an 'unpolluted' air mass. It's getting late in the Thunderstorm Season now, and we're only good for maybe two weeks of steady storm activity. After that time, it takes a little extra 'magic' other than time of day to induce storms.

On the plus side, even though they will occur less often -- we are left with a two week window of opportunity for what I think of as "rarities". Some years it happens, and some years there's absolutely nothing. It so happens that this is about a good time that something tropical in nature could occur as well...so there's still things to look forward to (if one is prone to liking active weather). It can be very benign during this time as well, so tighten up the bootstraps a notch and keep attuned.

Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining

(some of these look pretty neat enlarged)

What a difference a day makes. Or in this case, a night. Seems the wheels have turned a good 90-180 degrees in areas around the state overnight, leaving it's logo across the sky this morning. Nocturnal and early morning thunderstorms lined the continental shelf off the Cape causing launch cancellation and marine mayhem. Landlubbers bathed in ignorant bliss under their sheets with eyes shut while Mother Nature took to the skies. But today she dealt a difficult hand to contend with. I'll stay with the hand I've got and lay it out straight and hold, praying I don't get trumped.

Basically what we've got is upper level winds out of the WSW and low-mid level steering out of the SSE-SE. Most of peninsular Florida has resumed it's 'spongy' characteristic' this morning unlike yesterday when a rare 'cold front' made an unseeming visit to the state from the North Pole (?) and drying out the entire northern half. Go back Santa, it's not your time, yet. We've got bigger eggs to fry during Thunderstorm and Hurricane Season than wrapping tidy bows around neatly packed trinkets of admiration.

So, in essence we have a fairly uniform onshore steering flow (on the east coast), moisture, and a mildly unstable atmosphere without any triggering mechanisms and no cap. But the gods have at least provided some moisture which will be lacking by tomorrow under subsidence as well, so we'll give it a shot today and call for early-middish/late afternoon rains for the east half of the state..and mid to late-ish/evening thunderstorms on the west coast. I have a feeling thunder might be lacking on the east coast today, but seems more likely the further west one goes where the CAPE will pile up under more prolonged daytime heating and the easterly flow.

I'm not really hoping for anything 'siggy fun' today...although their might be a very pretty sunset if enough clouds clear out (assuming there are many to clear out..). But all in all, despite the fact there isn't a cloud in the sky now and all the morning activity offshore seems to have made for a hasty exit, things could be interesting today. The real shift in the pattern really doesn't commence until about 11am. From that time on it will spend the day establishing itself. I'm looking for rain on the east side from 1:30pm to 5:00pm time frame and about 1- 1 1/2 hours later as one works west. Not chasing today unless I want to end up in Tampa Bay at 8pm and contend with a long drive home through Orlando. I'll sit tight and pray some early stuff induces a waterspout just offshore, although I'm not hedging any bets on the possibility...I'd have to toss the hand I was dealt in for a new one.

Tropics. I remain in the coffin. Let this 'whatever it will be' that's developing east of the Bahamas do whatever it's going to do...just get it over with and by pass to the east and north so we can resume our normal routine. I'll awaken in mid-September when the atmosphere has had a time to recycle.

"Florida Front Fiascos" By George

The atmosphere is not feeling well today, nor is my cat "Lola" (give her a click)

It's sort of amazing today actually, having a front situated across Central Florida in August?! I don't recall that ever happening. The graphic above is showing the Convection Available Potential Energy forecast for this afternoon. One can see where the boundary between No CAPE and some of it lies. But it's not that easy......

With that, the forecast becomes somewhat problematic as far as how far north will the precipitation line make it today from it's current location (?)...which can be either parallel and over I-4 from Tampa to Daytona, OR along a secondary leading trough that lies somewhere in S. Brevard along the coast. The second trough, having passed N. Brevard..has shifted the wind temporarily to the NE along the coast as of 1:30pm in Cape Canaveral. This should be short lived though as it mixes out by 4pm and the c-breeze becomes the dominating feature.

In any case, it seems it will be that second trough that will determine where earlier preciptation can form (south of it), otherwise it could be well near sunset..if at all every where else between that boundary and the I-4 'front'.

As I type, a line of towering Cu that extened from the Cape across Merritt Island and into SE Orange County literally got its head cut off right through the middle leaving remant stratocumulus and the ends stranded aloft. The line is attempting to re-establish itself now but the Cu further south have become greatly diminshed with my guess being the passage of the second boundary (which is not depicted on any of the models)

Until the atmosphere can recycle and swings/veers to the SE we are pretty much in limbo. It's a waiting game. Anything that goes up today will likely move just E of due North well south of that second boundary..with the exeption of where the second trough lays it s dying remains..that activity may more closely follow that boundary in a more ENE direction.

The one thing that the models seem to have come agreement upon is that the immediate coast might escape rain today altogether..and that most activity will be west of US1 after 5pm. Confidence in strong activity is not very high today, contingent upon how well that second boundary can mix out. If it doen''t mix out as thought, then rain chances will be low except maybe well west of I-95. Where the air is more greatly modified back to normal levels and away from the seabreeze.

Man Your Battle Stations...The BOYZ Are Back

I love the mock wave poser. No one was around to take my picture in it though. Darn!

Good Bye Bill...you were nice while you lasted. At least that's what the surfers thought. Actually, the waves aren't all that bad this morning. Went to the pier to take some photos for the morning blurb and to try to hone my photo skills a bit. Didn't help. But I did get to meet a very nice dog, some surfer dudes who wanted to 'borrow' some money, and got a beach worth of sand between my sandals and my feet. It's still between my toes. It was fun!

And yesterday, despite my failings to get some good surfing video due to being there too early (too early? me?) I did make a little 'Virtual Tour of Cape Canaveral' video. It's over there on the right..under High Speed Dirt Video..the top one. I confess, it wasn't my idea. I saw another one on YouTube but I didn't like the way it was done..and since I had nothing else to do I thought that since I'm already here I'll just video the trip back..set it to music, and a star is born..not quite, at least not in this lifetime.

Yesterday panned out to be very interesting in Cape Canaveral with 3 separate storms moving thru over the course of 2 1/2 hours...each with a character and structure all its own. None were particularly strong or excessive lightning producers, it was the boundary that had been set up and the way the surface winds were all over the place right around the Cape that set the wheels in motion. Not sure how much different today will be but this is the pre-diagonsis of the atmosphere even though no new data has come in. (I guess that's why one could call it the pre-diagnosis).

The upper level trough has an interesting vorticity maximum rotating around into the base of itself this morning; however, I don't think it will have any affect on our weather today - - directly. Indirectly, more numerous storms could go up just north of here and send out a boundary to meet the sea-breeze..which actually isn't too much different than yesterday. There is a part of me that suspects the boundary is still there, but that's too much to ask. But it's something to consider. Yesterday it really wasn't apparent until all the activity flared up to the north and the southern extent was right on the boundary. It was almost magical to witness in and of itself.

There is something going on in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico which may be a harbinger of things to come...and I'm going to latch on to that feature for the sake of this discussion. Upper level moisture today again is not tremendously abundant (surprisingly), but it wasn't yesterday either. The biggest difference that I can tell for today is that the winds aloft are a smidgen stronger. The sea-breeze will kick in today from the Cape south...but it might not be until after 1:00pm. So it could be another hot one today. Canaveral got up to 95 yesterday (and I caught on video -- see for yourself -- the video of the thermometer is posted (gad); couldn't believe it. But it dropped 7 degrees in half an hour when the sea-breeze kicked in. That was the magic ingredient yesterday...both it's timing and how far west it got...in combination with that aforementioned boundary. I doubt it ever got past Merritt Island at best. The old tail of Bill's trough as mentioned yesterday must have been laying across Central Florida and the sea breeze coalesced along it..one storm went up..sent a boundary back to the west..and another went up almost right behind the first and followed that same boundary. It was quite the parade of characters coming to town yesterday. All the storms looked different. Quite bizarre actually.

Okay, for today. No early day stuff. Sea-breeze between 12:30pm - 2pm (this is where it gets tricky...will there even be a sea-breeze?). It barely manifested itself yesterday and today looks like an even bigger challenge. Assuming it does kick in (for now), storms may very well be in the making by 1pm and should push ENE at about 10-15mph to meet the BOYZ marching along the front lines (over the marsh lands). Maybe today will be the gust front I was hoping for yesterday, although yesterday was better than a gust front so I'm not complaining. It could be interesting once a few storms get going and the boundaries interact. It's better if we don't have too many storms (unless you really like to get wet)...but for the sake of someone who would like to get a good structure shot ...I prefer to hear wildly scattered to scattered rather than numerous. But today does look like it could fit the scattered bill. It will become clearly evident what most of the storms are going to do today as far as motion once they start to go up. So far the stuff in the GOM and some spritzes near Ocala are rolling right along quite nicely to the ENE to NE as they should since that 's the direction the wind is "upstairs" . If we get real lucky we'll find one that would prefer to misbehave and shove south along the boundary. But such antics are unforecastable. That type of thing remains a mystery (at least to me).

I downloaded everything off the camcorder yesterday, and since I most inconveniently happened to NOT have the camera charged yesterday, you can bet it will be (and IS) today!

Today's Menu: Surf n' Turf

At the beach: Photographers, surfers, tourists, and locals all here to see the big surf and experience extremely dangerous rip tides. What a blast! (ya gotta click on'm to get the full effect)

What a great day, huh?! Not often we have a "Surf-n-Turf" day, when there's the best of both worlds! Went down to 27th St. in S. Cocoa Beach to try the hand at surf video/photography but was too early. The sun was right in my face and the glare off the ocean made it virtually impossible to see anything let alone the surfers who were ripping the waves apart at my old stomping grounds -- the waves were about 2-4 ft overhead, clean, glassy with decent form. If I had half a brain, I'd be back there even now, but I don't want to drive thru all the traffic to do it. And by this time of day on a beautiful Saturday as it is..there WILL be traffic on A1A. So I took some photos at the beach here. The waves in Cape Canaveral as a golden rule are general 2-4 ft smaller and don't have the form. Maybe next time I'll go south at the right time, and there will be lots more "next times" into fall when I can focus on the surf and the thunderstorms have gone away..and it usually works that way ;-). That's one thing about the small wave surfing capital of the U.S. - "my surf, my beach, my wave."

Today ("The Turf"): Deep layer mean (DLM) WSW flow is beginning to set camp over Central Florida, DLM other than a nice little seabreeze that should set up by early afternoon --the magic ingredient. The preciptable water values from TPA did not come in super encouraging, and it looked like there was a slight cap at 700mb. However, I believe that given lots of ample heating which we will have today that things will start to ramp up after 2pm and march toward the coast. Hopes are in the "high" range for a good "gustfronting" upon the area today! We may even keep that light seabreeze pinned close to the coast. I can't imagine a better set up. This could be a classic.

(The "Surf") Meanwhile over at the beach lots of energy is being generated by Bill in the form of long, deep swells generating powerful waves and great surf! Nice and glassy this morning with a 5 mph offshore wind and about 2-4 feet overhead surf at S. 27th St. in Cocoa Beach. Watch out by noon time during the outgoing tide though. It's likely the swells are digging trenches in the ocean floor which will serve as foci for strong undertow/rip currents as the tide pulls out... and indeed the NWS is calling for the extremist of conditions today. Given it's the weekend I wouldn't be surprised to hear of up to 100 rescues oout of Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties. It seems so much like a June day today. I just can't believe it. Hey, you can join the fun. Just click under the videos to the right where you see the blue sky..a virtual drive up A1A :p

It's a Beautiful TGIF Morning in Cape Canaveral

Photos are from the beach this morning.That's somebody's home in the center

Today: I should just say "read yesterdays" because the thinking for what today will be like hasn't changed. Nor has the thinking changed for Saturday and Sunday. But I'll regress...today will be much like yesterday with less chance of local activitiy in the morning...but still a small chance of something before 2pm. Steering winds at the Space Center are 5 knots or less the whole way up toe 30,000 ft...and there's plenty of moisture. Problem is that with such light winds and no apparent trigging mechanism I'm not sure how things will get started too early. So that does pose a small problem..but for the most part even if something does go up locally between Ft Pierce and Oak Hill east of US 1..it will be weak and small. Not sure why there isn't a spout potential this morning advertised... LOTS to learn.

By this afternoon in the 3-5pm time frame the seabreezes on both coasts will have become active. With the ridge axis oriented over us that way it is..the bulk of the activity will be right along "lightning alley " (the I-4 corridor). Have a hard time rationalizing how anything will make it back to the coast South of Oak Hill, but there is that remote chance we could see another Fish Camp scenario set up after dark which would be great for lightning shots.

Tomorrow: the influence of Bill will be pulling away (subsidence) and the upper level trough will begin to penetrate North Florida..allowing for a SW flow to become established. For now, I'll leave tomorrow and Sunday both at typical afternoon and early evening stuff only as good ops, and not in the morning. ..and will vary that thought based on how things evolve. There are several possiblites as to what they might be...but I'm leaving out the ifs, ands, or buts and prefer just to provide that much of a heads up for now.

Good Bye Southeast Flow

Lola is catching up on her history lesson. Yeah..I find history boring too.

Today: Hurray! A change is in place. This became apparent last night as can be seen in the radar image from around 11:30pm. This cluster of storms moved north with a trend of working toward the coast; however, it died across the burial grounds of unworthy storms (i.e. the swamps).

Set-Up: Upper level ridge that has been elongated across the Deep South will sink south and be almost right across us today. This is in response to a large upper level trough that is digging down the Belt Ways of Alabama and West Georgia. It can be noted that it is this same trough that will steer Tropical Cyclone Bill into the Netherlands of the Atlantic Ocean as a 'fish storm', although the folks up in Nova Scotia might want to have their casting nets ready just in case. Since the ridge will be over us today..if not a hair line fracture to the south, we will lose the pesky ESE to SE steering flow that's been plaguing us for so long. In essence it's going to seem a lot like the "June Days of Summer" the next 3 days, particularly Saturday and Sunday.

So what gives?: Good question. The ridge snaps right down the middle leaving the majority out in the Atlantic for Bill to deal with while the rest takes its sabbatical in the Gulf of Mexico as the trough drops right in between the two and gives us a nice pat on the head...in the form of SW-WSW steering flow. Too boot, Bill will be leaving his tailing trough to fill in the gap where the ridge departed. A nice, moist tail at that too.

But there's a fly in my soup!: Yep, it's called "warm air aloft". This "mourn"ing's sounding does reveal that to be true, but I don't think it will be so much as to inhibit convection completely. The other thing to consider is subsidence both just to the south of the base of the 500mb trough as well as in the periphery of Bill's umbrella.That is today and most of tomorrow. Look for some bubbly Cu by noon and isolated showers by 1-2pm with storms over the interior and approaching the I-95 corridor in earnest by 4-5pm. Maybe we'll squeeze one out even closer to the coast either early in the afternoon or after 5pm.

The Weekend is looking more hopeful. Bill will have pulled far enough away and the trough will have dug a smidgen further south opening up the flood gates for SW Flow aloft while maintaining a high probability of a seabreeze pinned to the coast. Best chances for storms at this time seems to be east CENTRAL Florida for a change too. We're due. Looks like we may be gust fronted at least twice in the course of the next 5 days. So I'm cleaning off the lens and putting some fresh memory sticks in the camera. I wonder if I'll ever use the rest of the film in that camera. It's probably decayed by now.

Monday: Back to the dog days of August and the same old song and dance. Unpredictabe weak tropical waves. However! There's hints of a fairly strong one evolving just to the north of the Bahamas by mid week.

Early Evening Forecast Discussion

Precipital water has dropped this evening to 1.84" which might explain the lack of activity along the east coast today (along with warmer 500mb temps than the past few days). But this will all change gradually during the course of Thursday and Friday.

We'll be in transition of a nil to slight favoring of the east coast Friday and especially Saturday thru Sunday, and with Bill wagging his tail (sfc trough) as he goes by it could get interesting in these parts. The impression I see is there will be a lingering trough with very light flow leaving room for a diurnally driven sfc trough to form down the spine during max heating with little flow aloft until Saturday when a strong SW flow returns to the state ... which will then favor the east coast for two days.

After that, as if this was written in stone..it's going to be back to using satellite/water vapor imagery to do mostly post-haste nowcasting as stuff will be coming off the ocean where there is no upstream data points.

In a nut shell..east coast or close to it for the weekend. Until then we'll have to succumb to the forces that be and play it on a nearly hourly basis since chances of precip will exist at any time but most likely late morning thru mid afternoon.