Tricky, Tricky

Interesting forecast challenge today. I've monitored the local forecasts and watched The Weather Channel, and have opted to go against the grain today as far as what our weather will be like. Here's the set up and my reasoning.

Low pressure centers over the Bahamas and Louisiana are no longer joined by a weak boundary but rather a low level ridge axis impinging south from the mid-Atlantic area is cutting that boundary in half right over east Florida. This ridge is acting as 'the great divide' at the lowest levels of the atmosphere and creating a relatively drier area just above the surface than the layers lower or above that along the east half of the state . The net affect is that as moisture gets working with the heat of the day and the air is lifted it will pass into this area and no longer be suitable for production of storms. The only area not succumbing to this predator is the extreme west half of the state and areas south of Lake Okeechobee.

Thus, for today I see no rain chance for the Space Coast other than maybe a large cloud that can put out some sprinkles. By late afternoon into early evening those storms that do get cranking up further west will spread out anvil debris in the more moist upper levels of the atmosphere, producing mostly cloudy skies (much like what happened yesterday).

And like was mentioned yesterday, I still don't see that chances of rain will increase for this immediate area until very late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. After that time, the chance for some real storms with colder air aloft seems to be in the cards at this time.

Beautiful Day In Store

(rainbow near sunset yesterday as seen from my apartment)

This morning a low pressure area resides about 200 miles offshore with a very weak, diffuse stationary boundary stretched westward from it and across the state which then joins another low in the north central Gulf of Mexico. This boundary will drop south of all of Central Florida today and usher in a northeast wind in its wake. Although there is still quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere today, I believe that the wind across the ocean water will have somewhat of a stabilizing affect on any potential storms that could form today. Additionally, the mean steering currents will be from the northeast as well, so whatever rain falls today will have to come off the ocean.

There is a very small chance of a rain shower or increased cloud coverage in the 12pm -2pm time frame, but that chance is so small that it will have little effect on the day's events.

Tomorrow, at this point, looks like about the same story. It won't be until late Wednesday, when the low now in the northern Gulf starts to track northeast and drags the boundary back across us, now from the south, that juicier and more unstable air will penetrate the area. But the outcome of that still has two days to come to fruition so let's not jump the gun on that one yet. For now...enjoy a meteorlogically boring day.

Pictures From The Evening of the Morning Funnel

Pictures from today

Break Out The Galoshes

(photo: Thursday Morning at Sunrise Looking Over the Atlantic)

The weather scenario this morning from a purely meterological perspective is very exciting, but requires little elaboration as it is hoped that everything is fairly straight forward.

This mornings KSC Sounding (and a later 'special' launch) is painting a sporadically wet afternoon and early evening for almost all of East Central Florida. Although the atmosphere is totally saturated from ground to jet stream level there is little else going for us that would get something 'severe or strong' going. Additionally, based on the steering wind speeds, any prolonged heavy downpours will not sit in any one area for long. But rain chances appear to be very high nonetheless especially east of a north/south line running from Ocala to Okeechobee. Overall rain coverage at any one given time shouldn't be huge, but all persons east of that line have a good chance of experiencing at least a brief shower with big drops splotting down.,...and large rainfall amounts will be the result of repeated raindrop invasions.

Believe that with heating of the day that some of these 'showers' may also become lightning producers, and I wouldn't count out a waterspout either over the Atlantic, although winds might be too strong for that other than the strongest of spouts.

For Today: As of noon showers are already developing in the western fringes of the area outlined above, and are moving at a good 15-20mph clip toward the ESE. Coverage in the initiation area should continue and additional development can occur about anywhere else at the same time. By 3pm expect there will be some fast moving thunderstorms and lots of spotty rain showers across all of East Central Florida.

Not sure how late into the afternoon or early evening such prevalent conditions will exist, but it appears that before sunset the show will be over due to: 1) drier air aloft moving in 2) extensive cloudiness cutting off the instability supply 3) areas previously rained on will have stabilized and become unfavorable for further onslaughts.

Later Tonight and Tomorrow: The jury is somewhat hung as to what Monday will bring. But a few factors seem to be a given. The overall air mass will have dried out and the steering flow will be from the NW to NNW (not coming from a moisture source such as the Gulf or Atlantic). NW flow along east central Florida can be very interesting though if the right parameters are in place, but at this time I'd give us a 3 in 10 chance of such to occur. It could very well be a completely rain free day other than a few isolated storms, but as you know..it only takes one on your head to make it a rainy day.

Rain A Good Possiblity - But Storms May Be Lacking

(Infrared satellite imagery depicts the gloom already over the west coast and moving our way, slowly)

Most of the transitional changes have fallen into affect as they had begun in earnest early Friday evening and hit with a whack of 1.3" of rain over night in Cape Canaveral. This morning has begun with cloudy skies and a calm wind. Rain, some heavy at times, blankets much of the extreme western portion of the state, much to the chagrin of those in the Tampa area; hope those 'honey dos' are done, because they are in the muck for much of the morning.

For the east coast: I'm going to slide a glimmer of hope for the 'non-rainy' type folks today and mention right off the bat that the bark of the well advertised wet day to lay ahead might be worse than its bite. The surface boundary, weak and diffuse as it is, lays some where right across the center of the state and is saturated to the gills with moisture at all levels. The problem for the storm lover in me is that the temperature of the air aloft is not very cold and in fact a tad on the warm side at the lower levels, which is not conducive for rapidly rising columns of air (instability) which induces thunderstorms. Additionally, the strongest winds aloft are forecast-ed by weather models to be in the mid-levels then weakening higher up.

So what? This is what. Parcels of air that are trying to rise in an environment not fit for man or beast that encounter these stronger winds will be torn asunder before the can reach the higher, cooler ambient environment higher aloft, leaving them as kindred spirits spread amongst the winds. In other words, wimpy wimpy wimpy. Net affect is when the favored rainy area to the west works its way east toward the coast it is simply torn apart and weakened.

This means we'll have to leave it to the heating of the day and some cloud breaks to get things going with any respectability worth pulling a camera out for. What I foresee is simply a cloudy day...with the rain struggling to get here. It's going to be one those days where one will say "it's going to rain any minute"..and "any minute" can become hours. But once it's here, it will be here to stay for a while.

All things given, I'm thinking that activity along the eastern 1/4 of Central Florida will for the most part hold off until at least noon time..and in some areas as late as 4pm. Whatever activity that develops will be of mostly the 'rain' nature only, and not those horrific lightning and wind storms we all love so dearly. Shame.

The very near future is somewhat bleak for the sun-worshippers, so make those appointments at the tanning salon now. It might be days before there's a period of baking the skin in natural sunlight due to lots of high clouds.

Future Days like Sunday and on: It will be interesting to see what the net affect of what is being foreseen by the models...which should be mentioned..is not at all in agreement amongst those masses. It could be anywhere from rainy to partly cloud and actually pretty nice by Monday depending on which one you want to materialize the most. Unfortunately, the weather seldom is in the business of granting wishes, so we'll have to deal with what we're dealt. So hang in there, get some good video rentals and find some chores to do around the house. It's a good weekend for it.

Big Changes Begining Late Today

(small funnel cloud and accompanying rain showers from Thursday - 9/10/09)

Big changes are now occurring as was alluded to would happen today in Wednesday's post. The morning KSC sounding and forecast models are all gradually coming into agreement of this atmospheric transformation so some forecasting challenges are at hand.

Now and First 3/4 of Today: Latest sounding indeed shows that over the past 24 hours the easterly steering flow has become shallower and shallower. There is a shift of winds now just above 10,000 feet to a westerly component whereas the past couple of days that shift was up at 20,000 feet. It will continueto slowly lower during the day, but any impacts will not be realized until late today into tonight when it sets up in earnest. Meanwhile, the overall moisture content/depth has likewise increased as well as instability.

A weak surface boundary extends from a strong low pressure system off the New Jersey coast south and westward across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico joining the low pressure system that had been trying to form off North Central Cuba (which is now moving WNW). As this low moves further north the boundary will do so in tandem...impinging into the southern areas by very late today. I think the models are a little fast on the course of events, so we may see little impact of this today north of a Vero-Tampa line. If anything, it could be initially drier from points north of a Ft. Pierce to Sarasota line...but the change is coming.

Ocean showers are not really making it onshore today (unlike yesterday) due to the fact that the easterly steering flow is being begrudingly disrupted, and we are thus falling into a temporary nil-flow pattern until tonight. However, with ample moisture, instability, sea-breeze/lake breeze mergers, and the aforementioned boundary all in play today there will be storms today just north, along, and south of the boundary. Showers/storms will be limited to highly isolated until after 7pm further north and into the overnight.

Tomorrow (Saturday) looks to be an active day weather-wise, so I hope you got those "honey-dos" done. Break out the camera gear, the galoshes (do folks wear them in Florida?), and boot up the radar on the computer...never hurts to look at the sky too, because they'll all be needed by later today, tomorrow, Sunday...and from there the jury is closed.

Future evolution of this impending scenario will be described possibly as soon as later today if the changes become more evident or actually start to occur more rapidly than currently anticipated.

Fall Preview In Store Again Today

Lola Says "Watch the Weather Channel tonight between 7-10pm. I'm going to be on there"... . See look at her mouth...that's what she's saying.

Looks like today will be much like yesterday with even less chance of any rain along the east coast other than maybe a brief spritz before 2pm..and less chance to closer to none further inland by mid-afternoon. Looks like a little pocket of mid-level moisture will be around until mid-afternoon..after that it looks pretty dry with a stabilizing 'coolish' onshore flow off the Atlantic contributing to the 'dilemma' for instability...which should make about 99.9% of the general populace quite pleased. For the foolhearty who like to see some action amongst atmospheric molecules...the fights have been banned until the gates open again..which looks like it will be late Friday.

There is a variety of potential circumstances that could evolve for our chances of rain to increase relatively significantly (although I guess anything above a 5% chance could be considered significant at this point) come late Friday. So for now let's just leave it at that. Might as well enjoy the sunshine and cooler weather (below 90 degrees) for a day or two more and get the outside chores and "honey do" list tackled, because this weekend might not be so favorable unless one likes to mow the lawn in an airboat. Okay, that's stretching it, but you can get the gist.

Enjoy, and watch a good sunrise or sunset. At least we have those to enjoy! If you can't make it out to see a sunrise just watch the video link over on the right hand column where the sunrise picture is..click for the YouTube video.

Freddy no "Nightmare" and No Rain Today: "Reflections"

Fall, Fall Go Away

(pileus often seem to come in pairs)

Looks like fall fell in a harsh way as of Sunday. The first hints of the end of the thunderstorm season are now in full swing with a north north east wind this morning and sporadic moisture pockets aloft providing for various scattered clouds with very limited instability. Looks like this will be the scene for the next two days here in east central Florida. Doesn't mean we're out of the woods quite yet, but for now the immediate coast north of St. Lucie County looks like it will be spared thunderstorms for the next few days with only the most favored inland locations near Lake Okeechobee favored and possibly on the west coast from Sarasota and points south.

There is a chance we'll see some coastal ocean showers during the overnight and early morning hours beginning tomorrow though, but they will be very widely scattered at worst, with the potential of an increase in such activity on Thursday as a low pressure system over Central Cuba begins to morph northward.

Have a great Labor Day!

More of the Same --But As Always --Different?

(reliving last summer)

Synopsis: Looks like the pesky surface low/bubble has actually worked on shore and is now located between St. Augustine and Ormond Beach this morning. Water vapor loop shows a 'dry' slot of air moving into the Florida Big Bend south to the Tampa Bay area moving east about 10-15mph. KSC sounding showing higher precipitable values than yesterday at this same time and we have thin cirrus clouds overhead. Winds aloft are more predominately SW thru the column, but of such light value it holds little weight or bearing for today's weather outcome. The same cap as yesterday morning is also in place; however, the convective temperature is a full 10 degrees lower than yesterday which proves to be a challenge for determining shower initiation timing. Drainage down the peninsula, while yesterday seemed to stop at the north edge of the Big Lake, seems to have made it the whole down to the southern tip of the state. All given, it's almost synonymous with "yesterday" as it's as stable as all get out to start the day. Who cares anyway, it's morning. Elsewhere, a mid-level low is now rotating in place along the north/central coast of Cuba with currently no direct impact on the Space/Nature/Treasure Coasts.

Today: The drier air mentioned above if it reaches the east coast, based on timing, won't arrive until 5pm which will be after convective initiation. In fact, it may aid in moisture convergence along the sea-breeze at just the perfect time in the mid-late afternoon to get things going. Due to the light, albeit somewhat uniform steering currents along with the hint (stressed) of a nudge from impending drier air may nudge precipitation a notch closer to the coast (yesterday it made it as far east as the Banana River in Canaveral and over parts of the Space Center).

It is interesting that some showers and a storm have gone up near Tampa despite the aforementioned 'drier' air shown in water vapor analysis (apparently that drier air is not at all the levels required to suppress shower formation). So all things given:

Today: With less cloud coverage this morning but with very stable air initially, expect that pre-noon rains will be hard to come by, or very isolated in nature if they do form...which could be about anywhere, and given that heating may occur fairly quickly today under such light, moisture laden flow...could see a funnel along the coast (most likely off shore). Sea-breeze initiation will be at or shortly before the text book time of 11-12pm. True storm formation to begin after 2:30pm. In going with persistence today, expect earliest activity to initiate closer to the closed circulation in or near Flagler County then propagate south along the sea-breeze as far as the East Central Coast of the state is concerned that is.

Elsewhere, activity might get a slightly later start today down by the Big Lake, but it assuredly will..particularly along the south shores initially. The Tampa area might be a bit suppressed today yet still, with the morning activity being the only show in town until late when the back edge of the dry slot has passed and they are back in the juice (and other storms have already formed and propagated basically "all over the place in random fashion").

Pinpointing an exact location where heavy rains and dangerous lightning will occur today is a nearly impossible prospect to attempt...so use the noggin' and look at the sky every once in a while. Don't wait for that first thunder to send yourself running for cover either. If those cloud bases are big and black..the first bolt can be one's last. It's fun until it happens to you...KABLAM!!

Very Stable Morning - Small Chance of Rain Later

(after a stormy early evening, the Space Coast was treated to a fiery sunset)

Boy, they don't make it much more stable in the atmosphere at this time of year around here as this morning is. It appears there is a light drainage flow down the peninsula characterized by almost nil flow or very light land breeze on both coasts, with a temperature of nearly 75 degrees in Cape Canaveral which is cool by standards of late (by a mere 3 degrees). Morning Cape sounding has an unbreakable cap strength of 4.0 (very strong) and near calm winds the whole way up. Don't expect this to last all day, but it should be indicative of what the first half of the day will bring.

Additionally to the above mentioned, we have some high clouds in the vicinity, but they appear by poking my head out the door that they are mostly along the immediate coast. In any case, with it being so stable right now I'm having a hard time envisioning coastal showers to form in the late morning...so all in all it looks like it will be a perfect beach day until at least 4pm if not later.

Don't think there will be a sea-breeze collision today between the coasts for a number of reasons:

1) differential heating between land/sea is not nearly as great as the early summer when ocean temperatures are much cooler, hence giving them that extra nudge. Expect any sea-breeze to linger within 10-20 miles of either coast with light and variable winds inland most of the day

2) lack of winds aloft won't aid in frictional drag with the lowest atmospheric levels to steer the winds in any particular direction

Thus, expect a very stagnant and probably uncomfortable day inland, with the coasts feeling some relief by noon time.

There does appear to be a remnant mid-level low pressure 'bubble' off the NE coast of Flagler county that was there yesterday in association with the weak stationary boundary that was over the state. From all appearances at this time though, it appears what was left of the boundary has all but completely vaporized into a mere shadow of what it was before (which was a mere shadow!). Hence, without any upper or mid level triggers expect shower/storm activity to be mainly land mass generated around the lakes, Tampa Bay, and "hot pockets" with any motion to be dictated by probably some healthy outflow boundaries after 6pm if one, or a cluster of small ones, can get going. With that a possibility, boundary collisions could generate more storms although not expecting a broad coverage of them.

Be noted that most of the models are indicating a good chance of showers/storms today, so I kind of went "off the norm" this morning to take a wag at the flip side of the coin. It also doesn't mean it can't rain on your head today. Just consider yourself one of the lucky few who get to experience it today :-).

Climatological Chance of "Wet" Today

(pileus clouds from above the top of a building large rain shower over the Banana River, yesterday. Pileus clouds form where humid, stably stratified air is mechanically displaced vertically ahead of rising convection.)

Not much change from days past today. A little deeper analysis of morning data shows the stationary boundary to be in place from just south of a Brooksville to well north of Ormond Beach line. Looks like some fog developed overnight west of US1 and the low clouds streaming across the early morning sky along the coast are the evidence of such (as well as surface observations). Additionally, the KSC morning sounding came in very stable with a low level cap of 2.0 strength (strong). However, moisture at all levels is still in place with a convective temperature of 86 degrees which should get things going with the normal heating of the day.

Unlike yesterday, do not see any real triggers in place for significant convection to get going early. Do believe that with some heating after sunrise and perhaps a weak sea-breeze developing by 11am that some coastal/intercoastal waterway shower activity will get going as the cap erodes. About the only fly in the ointment is just how earnestly the early stuff will materialize..but if that cap does break in a 'sudden' fashion, with such light winds at all levels and ample moisture we might see a funnel cloud from some of the coastal activity....as I nearly witnessed yesterday with the cloud tops exhibiting their pileus formations and low, flat dark bases.

It appears from water vapor analysis that the bulk of today's activity will be east of a Sarasota to Flagler County line (as was the case yesterday)...with typical Lake Okeechobee activity to be in full swing, particularly around Ft. Pierce on the east coast. Don't know how well the Tampa area will fare today. It wasn't too great there storm wise yesterday, and what did occur / happened there yesterday was due to a definitive triggering mechanism that arrived too early in the day. But given that this is Florida in the late summer, no holds are barred...especially when it's the Tampa area with a light wind regime!

As the day progresses, expect the sea-breezes on both coasts to make it inland..but not too far. Not sure if they'll actually collide which could further put a damper on things intensity wise. If they do collide it will be along the moisture axis describe earlier along the east 1/2 of the state. Regardless, expect the east coast to be overcome with higher clouds by late afternoon as convection that forms down near the Big Lake and inland disperses its high clouds across the region in the decent SW-SSW flow aloft.

In short, watch for late morning, early afternoon big rainshower activity along the east coast with a funnel possible if it can get going...then a lull in the early to mid afternoon with the typical afternoon 'stuff' going all segments of Central and South Florida after mid-afternoon with the greatest concentration along the east 1/3 of the state after 6pm. Activity will generally struggle to make it to the coast east of US1...but stronger cells that form closer to the coast...near I-95 could well penetrate into the immediate coastal communities.

Oh, almost forgot forlorn Erika. I'm writing her off for now. Either she becomes an entity again and moves N-NE away from the area near the Bahamas, or becomes a non-entity that moves close by with little to no impact...(as of THIS writing :-).

Sunny Morning Yielding To Stormy Evening

Departing clouds along the beach access path this morning

Looks like a pocket of upper level energy just moved offshore at sunrise this morning. In its wake is a clearing sky and calm wind. That, in combination with some temporary drying of the atmosphere, should yield to a pretty nice morning across the Space Coast until noon time with a light sea breeze moving in by late morning (with minor exceptions as noted below).

Noon time on: this time frame may yield to some pretty interesting weather. The stationary boundary across Central Florida is still there from roughly an Oak Hill location along the east coast to just north of Tampa Bay and south of Brooksville on the west coast. An upper level pocket of energy moving in off the eastern GOM (Gulf of Mexico) is riding along this boundary and appears to moving in an ENE-NE fashion and rapidly approaching the Florida SW Coast. This 'activity' seems to have latched on to what ever was over W. Cuba as well, and the entire ensemble will take a swipe enmasse across most of the peninsula starting late morning and into the afternoon and evening as it progresses in a general NE fashion during the course of the day.

What does that mean for the Space Coast? The day will start off nice; nicer than the past two days...with big cumulus forming along a weak sea breeze by mid-late morning and possibly a shower over or near the rivers. This should be the course of the day with perhaps a thundershower forming around 1pm and thereafter. It's the 2-3pm time frame when that pocket of energy approaches and steering currents go from light and variable to a little more out of the SW along with an increase in moisture aloft that things get interesting. With increased moisture means an increase chance of rain, and for today, thunderstorms. Just exactly how this energy will evolve and mesh with the stationary boundary and heating of the day will be an interesting course of events from Tampa to Ft. Myers and across the state from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville later in the day. One thing seems to be a given, and that is the east half of the state will have more time for convective instability to mount than the west half of the state...so expect more thundery activity today than yesterday and possible training of rain/thunderstorm cells until past sunset...particularily from Titusville to Daytona Beach where the boundary lies.

What about Erika? Glad you asked. Seems at this point I'm willing to poke my head out of this hole in the ground and take a gander. Looks like Erika will stay weak and possibly just an open wave in the next 12-24 hours...but maintain some form of identity nonetheless. Appears it may make its presence none to Southeast and East Central Florida starting mid-late day Tuesday with increased rain chances and a healthy onshore E wind flow (mostly from pressure gradient winds as it meets the forces of high pressure to our north). The central portion of the state may be in the NE quadrant of whatever is left of the system which could spell a lot of rain for up to 48 hours as it completely washes out over the state. More to come on this potential area of interesting outcomes.

Record Rainfall in Melbourne Yesterday. Today?

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.29 INCHES WAS SET AT MELBOURNE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.81 SET IN 1997.

Can't say that record rainfall fell in Cape Canaveral late yesterday. We had a mere 0.31 inches...although surrounding areas got much more. Seemed this area was in the black hole, as often seems to be the case. Will today result be the same? Maybe.

Not much change from yesterday. Seems the quasi-stationary boundary, if one can even call it that, has made a southward drift since late yesterday and is now located somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa on the west coast, and across Melbourne on the east coast. It will waiver during the day as such boundaries do but in general remain south of Canaveral most of the day. Such motion will be indicative of the very weak low pressure 'bubbles' (nearly undetectable) as they move or almost just form and die along the 'boundary'. Such will be the case for the next two days with some minor differences as follows (below).

Today, expect a day only somewhat like yesterday. The main difference will be more clouds early in the day and slightly cooler temperatures due to the clouds. Convective instability will be decreased as a result, so this leaves the question open-ended as to just exactly how great the rainfall totals can be today. At least during the solid daylight period. Note, it could rain just about anytime today, but for now will leave the heaviest "stuff" to occur from early afternoon and points onward. During the early evening hours such rainfall (thunderstorms) is not as reliant on such factors as it is more coerced by the overall 'picture' of the surrounding atmosphere to get things going. Storm motion will again be close to nil, so whoever gets socked might be in for a healthy dousing of the wet stuff...quite measurable to say the least. Instability is below average, so don't expect storms to be particularily strong in character, but the feisty ones will deliver the ever dangerous and deadly lightning bolts. So beware! But there is a change in the offing.

Tomorrow and Friday, it looks like the mid-upper level trough will do a bit of active carving across the area. The frontal boundary will still lay directly across Central Brevard on the east side and across Tampa Bay on the west side of the state druing this process. Continued broad area of low pressure across the peninsula generally depicts the boundary, but now there will be sufficient steering currents from the WSW to move things along. Exactly how this will pan out as far as precipitation goes will be interesting. Both in amount and in type (plain rain or thunderstorms). I'm opting for a down the road vote right now and seeing a mix of both. Motion should be a good 15 miles an hour from the WSW versus the Nil flow we've had the past two days (and will have today as well). This could mean that specific areas won't get those heavy rainfall totals at first appearances, but 'training', or repeated in-flux of storms over the same area, will be quite the possiblity. Thus, we are not out of the woods quite yet (or for a while as far as that goes).

Yes, many eyes are on the tropics right now on entity Erika. I'm not going to place any bets on motion at this time, but in general I don't feel it will be a strong enough tropical system to ever warrant fear in the eyes of the beholder. But for kicks, it bears watching. It could actually impact the area in the late Sunday-Tuesday time frame in whatever morphed form it has assumed. Please keep attuned to posting by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the local national weather service for details.

More of the Same..But More of It

(above..bizarre cloud formation directly overhead. This showed up nicely on satellite imagery)

As of 9am it is nearly dead calm along the Space Coast, and nearly totally clear as well. Storms going up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are not moving, indicative of the steering currents today, although satellite imagery loops are showing a good W-WSW steering flow (for the clouds at least).

Overall, today should be much like yesterday..without going into some of the finer details. With more widespread coverage of the 'rainy' , thundery stuff. The main player today will be a very diffuse frontal boundary draped across the N. Central Peninsula which will likely drop yet further south during the next two days. Low level convergence along this boundary seems most likely tomorrow as it lays directly overhead and weak, nearly indiscernible bubbles of low pressure traverse along it from WSW to ENE.

Today, storm motion will be almost solely dictated initially by sea-breezes pushing inland from both coasts, then once they get going outflow boundaries and storm mergers will be the player. Thus, other than from Daytona - north, and Vero-South, the central coastal locales will have to resort to the luck (or unluck) of the draw later in the day after 5pm. Activity elsewhere should get going though by 1pm...and strengthen in intensity inland after 4pm.

Looks like a dense cirrus shield has already spread over the Tampa Bay region (which is being indicated on radar as light rain) ..this cloudiness is spreading eastward pretty quickly, but I don't believe it will be realized in Central Brevard until early afternoon, if at all. Perhaps a degree or two warmer today as we have started out the day relatively cloud free, unlike yesterday...with a light ENE sea-breeze kicking in around 11am.

The NAM model has been showing much of the state overrun by light rain by 2pm, but I believe this will only be realized as increased high cloud coverage and yet greater moisture aloft. The KSC sounding this morning shows that the 700mb dry slot is about all but gone now, and 500mb temperatures have dropped a notch. This may result in more strong storms as experienced at the blessed locales inland late yesterday.

As mentioned on Sunday, it still looks like Wednesday may be an active day. In the longer range, not looking for anything tropical in nature other than some weak inverted troughs encroaching on the area from the SE adding fuel (moisture) to the 'fire' and keeping elevated rain chances in the offing for the next 5 days.

The Beginning of the Begininning

(pileus.."pi-lee-us"...clouds crown the top of building cumulonimbus in Brevard)

An interesting complex of storms occurred last night around St. Lucie county..unbeknowst to those up in Brevard, but one could see the lightning out there much of the night. That complex has but literally evaporated, but it did send out an outflow boundary up this way in the wee hours providing a good SE wind which has totally diminished now.

For today, mid level moisture has increased nearly significantly overnight, and temperatures from 700mb and upward have decreased approximately two degrees as a result of the U.S. East Coast trough approaching the area. We have some high level cirrus clouds overhead this morning, albeit thin, but nonetheless they are there, and expect these to persist off and on throughout the day as a weak low begins to form off the coast of Tampa during the day. These will offset heating a tad, and prevent the temperature from getting as high along the coast as it did over the weekend.

Light SSW wind this morning should become onshore by late morning, but don't expect the big cumulus line along the coast to develop in any real, organized form due to earlier onshore wind onset and lack of low level instability having time to build before it does materialize.

For the most part, expect today to be uneventful for much of Central Florida with the exception of down around Lake Okeechobee and perhaps the Tampa Bay area which will be closer to the aforementioned developing low.

A stationary boundary/front will remain to the north near a Jacksonville to Crystal River line, but will waiver North-South the next two days. Weak bubbles of low pressure will form either on the Peninsula or off either coast and follow along this boundary thus enhancing the chance of precipitation just about anytime from late this afternoon thru Thursday.

Today, expect that storms will become evident to the eye by the 3-4pm time frame with a weak drift toward the east coast. Could see a greater overall coverage of activity by late afternoon over all the east coast, but expect the strongest of storms to be from a Central Brevard to North Tampa Bay region line and points north which is more encompassed by the upper level low pressure trough, and thus contains colder air aloft.

In essence, keep one's eye to the sky and to the west after 4pm especially and beprepared for some lightning. If we get too much of the cirrus cloud canopy over us during the course of the day, however, all bets are off and we not see a drop of rain.

Looks Like a Beach Day

Photographers Capturing a Cape Canaveral Sunrise

Today's by-line pretty much sums it up. The set up for today is similar to yesterday's, but even less foreboding for rain than yesterday.

#1: It is even drier aloft than yesterday, and unlike yesterday there is no pocket of very moist air aloft looming on the horizon at the level of the atmosphere that would yield storms.

#2: Sea-breeze initiation will be earlier today..by 11am, thus giving the coast less time to become unstable and form rainshowers.

There is moisture out there, but it's all trapped below about 10,000ft. Expect to see some coastal cumulus clouds begin by 10am and start to fill the sky, particularly from Melbourne and points south in toward Lake Okeechobee. They might even grow fairly robust with soft, fuzzy edges indicative of the warm air aloft (which is not conducive for further vertical upward extent).

Not expecting a strong sea-breeze per-se until late afternoon where the typical 10-15mph breeze will be fully entrenched and most of the clouds along the coast will have by that time been torn apart or simply dissipated due to low level forcing mechanisms being destroyed by the stronger low level winds.

Additionally, with the earlier onset of the sea-breeze today, do not expect the temperature to get up to nearly 95 degrees today like it did in Cape Canaveral yesterday. Could get up to near 90 though then hang around 87 the rest of the day.

All in all, it looks like a good day for the beach with no fears of lightning expected, at least not up this way. Having a hard time for finding an argument for lightning anywhere today except maybe St. Lucie and Okeechobee Counties.

Monday and points on? Not much change early in the day but a gradually moistening of the 700mb layer will be in progress although kind of doubt it will be sufficient enough to generate any significant storm activity..it won't be until Wednesday that things get interesting with the approaching of a possible inverted trough (tropical wave) from the southeast which may merge and dissipate just east of the state with the upper level trough that will be nearby. Rainfall chances in any case could go up a notch each day with Wednesday and Thursday appearing the most likely time for widespread rain/convection at this time.

Longing For Some Rain

(STS missions from the past during day light from Cape Canaveral)

There's some local banter going on as to which launches are better - - night vs. day. I think that hands down day launches are better. There's more to see and photograph as you can see above. Night ones are 'pretty' per se, but the overall picture is not nearly as dramatic. I did watch the launch last night, then ran back inside to see the replays on TV which were better, thus not posting any pictures from what I saw..as there really isn't anything to see but a bright ball in the sky. Video would do it a lot more justice, but I expect there will be lots of that on the web before day's end that will well surpass what I saw. Recorded some of what was on TV on our local channel which I might post though.

Weatherwise, today not much change from yesterday but there will be some differences. Danny is pretty much out of the picture now and the dominating weather feature today is a long wave mid-upper level trough poised along the U.S. east coast. Drier than normal mid-upper level air streamed in as feared yesterday, suppressing most convection north of St. Lucie county. Today will be much the same. Expect a light seabreeze to form from the Cape and points south around 1-2pm and penetrate no further west than US1. At this time there will be a chance of a very light sprinkle from Canaveral South...but greatest storm coverage should again be from St. Lucie county in towards Lake Okeechobee as the afternoon progresses. The sea breeze, assuming it does form, may actually retreat by late afternoon and be all but gone as stronger mid level winds from the WSW over run the area late this afternoon.

There are hints that a pocket of moisture now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be moving into the area at that time..thus continuing a minute coverage of possible showers, mostly along the coast except for the better aforementioned areas where storms may linger until sunset. Don't think we'll see as much overall cloud coverage today since there won't be storms going up further west that will send their remnants overhead, creating the mostly cloudy sky we ended up with yesterday.

The temperature along the immediate coast may feel a tad uncomfortable today as it will warm into the low 90s with very humid conditions (as it was yesterday). It might feel very moist out there, but rest assured that just above ground level there is a significantly and unseasonably drier air mass in place.

Sunday-Monday: Expect much the same scenario as Saturday..with a small transition beginning by late in the day Sunday as greater moisture starts to overrun the region. By Monday we should be back to seasonal norms temperature and precipitation wise with storms induced by sea-breeze convergences from both coasts over the interior and making their generic penetration toward the coast and fizzling along the I-95 corridor.

..Transitions Are Always A Challenge

(shown above..just south of the attractions area of Orlando, Fl...2001)

Today is sort of exciting from an atmospheric forecast perspective. As I type this morning, the atmosphere, unbeknownst to the majority, is undergoing some pretty significant changes over our heads right now that could result in some exciting weather late this afternoon. With emphasis on "could".

The steering currents of storm motion are in the process of shifting from the east to the west southwest (WSW). It will be a relatively quick transition in the scheme of things...so that by mid afternoon the directional change will be complete...then later in the day the strength of that change increases.

Additionally, a mid-level cap at 700mb that was in place yesterday which suppressed storm activity is still there as of 6am...the question is to whether that capping mechanism will also be eroded during the transition, thus favoring rainfall in the form of thunderstorms later this afternoon unlike yesterday.

Most of the day will be benign, but I'm leaning faith in the forecast models that are hedging toward ample moisture, instability and dynamics in the form of low level wind convergence east of I-95. There appears to be neutral energy in place aloft this afternoon which doesn't bode well for storms reaching severe limits.

Synoptically speaking, a cut off low that has resided the past two days over the Deep South will fill and start to lift ENE during the day and merge with what is now superfluous Tropical Storm Danny over night tonight. This has been forecasted to occur for two days now, and see no reason to stray from this evolution. Convective Instability to be maximized in a region from Ft. Pierce diagonally NW to Cedar Key, FL on the west coast. This region is also the area where maximum upper level diffluence will occur. Mid and upper level temperatures, however, are not as cold as one could hope for generation of strong storms, in fact, they might be too warm. If that weren't bad enough, there is question as to whether the 700mb cap as alluded to earlier will erode at all...meaning the atmosphere at about 10,000 ft. might be too moisture deprived and warm for storm generation.

With the pros and cons layed out, it is with great uncertainty that a 'forecast' is made. I try to stress that the media and other forms of "information release to the general public" are not provided such free reign to state the not so obvious, which is I why I wanted to start this blog in the first place. Even if no one reads this I can spill my guts out somewhere in frustration and head pounding.

For example, in watching all forms of media release this morning and in weather models, I've seen that the weather can be from one extreme to the other...very wet or totally dry. All given, I'm leaning toward consistency and giving faith primarily in a blend of the NAM and RUC models combined with what I've learned about local affects that the models do not pick up on.

Looking for sea-breeze initiation early, but not making it far inland..and maybe actually retreating back toward the coast by late afternoon. Storms to go up about anywhere in peninsular Florida by noon time, mostly well inland at first and along the west coast..then gradually creeping toward the east coast in early afternoon. Volusia and counties south should realize the transition first..after 1pm as the WSW steering currents increase and previous storm merges further to the west coalesce and strengthen as they shove to the ENE. Points further south will see this resultant change after 4pm.

In my wishful thinking, but not altogether out of the realms of possibilities, some nice photographic opportunities will exist at the Manatee Park between 5pm and sunset in Cape Canaveral or at any open westward facing open expanse from Central Brevard south to St. Lucie County after 5pm. This is contingent that precipitation does not overrun the area earlier in the day...if it does indeed at all.

The core indicator as to whether late day convection (thunderstorms) will be present will be if lighter showers form in the area after 1pm. If they do, that would mean that the capping element is undergoing erosing, thus allowing more robust activity to form later.

So, this is not so much a forecast, as a rounding out of the possibilities that do exist for today, which in many ways is more important than just spelling it out in black and white as media is forced to. So be advised, it can swing both ways today..the good, the bad, and the ugly...or pleasantly benign. Being the weathernut I am...I'd prefer the former.

What about Danny? I see Danny as a dud in and of itself. However, as the storm moves north and a tad closer to the U.S. east coast, with its merger with the continental low pressure system complete it will be a subtropical or hybird system (I need to look it up to see what the difference is). The mid-Atlantic and in particular New England could be in for some tropical storm force gusts combined with very 'wet' conditions, but the storm should no longer be named per se (although for lack of any other reason, it probably will be).