Happy Daylight Savings Time!

Image: Lola taking one of her last opportunities to snuggle in a coat before spring fully arrives

Sure gets light late in the morning now. But then again, it gets dark late too. Take the bad with the good ...no problem. Today's discussion will be somewhat on the benign nature as there really isn't too much to get excited about. Besides, I'm tired this morning and not in much of a jocular mood. But the weather never stops...so here we go! :

SYNOPSIS: Vast area of low pressure remains pegged just off the coast of the DelMarVa region. High pressure encompasses much of the Central U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. These two features, as they did over the weekend, will be the primary weather influences for Central Florida today.

TODAY: Another classic early spring morning across all of Florida. Other than the much warmer Keys, conditions across peninsular Florida were amazingly uniform across the boards. Lows were generally in the mid-upper 50s with a pocket or two of upper 40s where winds went calm in the Big Bend region. Conditions are strikingly similar to the past two days. It was noted this morning that area profilers were not quite showing winds as strong as yesterday.

Therefore, expect today to be mostly clear with some spots of large stratocumulus clouds developing during the afternoon which will occasionally block out the sun. Winds will not be quite as gutsy (no typo) as they were over the weekend. Expect that by the core of the afternoon they will be WNW at 18mph with a few gusts over open water areas to 22mph. The high temperature will be 71 degrees.

TONIGHT: Increase in some high cirrus clouds whisping over near or after sunset as the subtropical jet realigns its trajectory. Winds will wind down significantly after dark to the 5-10mph range. Lows once again in the mid-upper 50s.

TOMORROW: The low pressure area will begin to drift just south of due east. Lower values (height falls) of the 500mb-700mb layer will results as a fresh influx of cooler air filters south behind the circulation of the low pressure system. Thus, high tomorrow a tad cooler at 69 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Wind will become WNW-NW at 10-15mph during the afternoon. Decreasing to 5-8mph by or shortly after sunset.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing high clouds under a partly cloudy sky accompanied by a 68 degree high temperature. Increasing clouds throughout the day with a chance of rain after 2pm and lasting throughout the night. At time rain chances might be called out thru the media as high as 40%...I don't use percentages so I'll leave it at that there is a true reality that it could rain...and maybe even rumble a bit any time from 4pm Wednesday through 7am Thursday. Low near 53 degrees through Thursday's sunrise.

THURSDAY: Clearing by 10am and cooler. High of 67 degrees with very light north winds.

FRIDAY: A few scattered clouds with a low of 52 and a high again near 67 with light and variable winds. Possibly an onshore component wind (c-breeze) developing by mid afternoon to affect only the area east of the Banana River. If this does occur coastal temperatures could fall a tad during the mid-late afternoon to 65 degrees. Cool again Friday night with a low again near 53.

THE WEEKEND: Much warmer and nice! We will be in the phase where it will be warming but the next system (which will be approaching)...will yet to be close enough to impact us directly. Other than some partly cloudy skies it could very well be the first pronounced 'warmish' period of the early spring season with a high in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s. In other words totally uneventful.

NEXT MONDAY: A storm system might be realized at this point which will bring cause to introduce rain chances back into the forecast for one day only. More to come on that scenario later in the week.

-Steve Sponsler

Happy Pi Day - 3.14 (10)

Image: KSC Profilers depicting uniform winds -- CLICK TO ENLARGE
Pi Day is a holiday held to celebrate the mathematical constant π (pi) (in the mm/dd date notation: 3/14); since 3, 1 and 4 are the first three digits of π. March 14 is also the birthday of Albert Einstein .

Another blustery, clear, not cool but not warm day in store for Central Florida on this famous Pi Day (and maybe not so coincidentally Albert Einstein's birth date). Can it get any better? You bet! Let's add on about 10 degrees and reduce the wind by 10 mph and we'd have a perfect day, but such will not be the case. Instead, we have to contend with cool mornings dag-nab-it, and that nasty wind. Complain, complain (I know). In reality, nothing to complain about today unless one is trying to read the newspaper by an 'unsheltered from the wind' pool. "Hey, there goes the sports section into the water." Heck if I'd go in after it with the water as cold as it is.

TODAY: Another negligible impact day in store for the second half of the weekend. Sounding data from the Space Meteorological Group (SMG) and KSC profilers are all indicating that the wind just above the surface is still blowing at an approximately healthy 27kts. So, despite the light wind that we have at the time of this writing, once the sun starts glaring full bore and breaks the minuscule inversion those winds will mix to the surface and create yet another breezy day under mainly clear skies. High temperature of 70 degrees plus or minus a degree or two.

TONIGHT: Same as last night with a low in the mid-upper 50s depending on one's locale.

TOMORROW: Let's just take a print out and run it through the copy machine. More of the same although the wind might be just a smidgen lighter. High of 70.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not too often one can sum up an entire week in one sentence, but here goes. Slight increase in clouds late Tuesday through Wednesday, decreasing wind, and temperatures possibly dropping (yes, dropping) a notch with a high of 69 and lows in the low-mid 50s. There. Did it.

Rain you ask? Highly unlikely but we're going to go with the infamous silent 10 percent chance of a barely detectable sprinkle on Wednesday just to make things interesting. For the most part, if not all of it...none.

WHEN IS THERE AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE?: Seemingly never but let's shoot for next weekend. We might warm to temperatures that are what would be considered right at normal.

So I've managed to write a couple of paragraphs for you after all. Have a Happy Pi Day in recognition to your favorite mathematician. What? You don't have one?!

Oh Blustery Day

*Image: Morning KSC Sounding Shows 37kt wind just above the surface

"Bluster"–verb (used without object)
1. to roar and be tumultuous, as wind.

I'm packing up the blankets and long pants! After two damp days it looks like the 'dries' are here to stay for quite a while. Surface low pressure over eastern Virginia will spin quasi-stationary generally over Eastern Virginia through the weekend. High pressure is building slowly ENE-ward from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico. The combination of circulations around the low and the high will generate a healthy west wind across the entire state today. The cloudiness/rain of the past two days is all but a faded memory - - FINALLY!

TODAY: Morning low in Canaveral was 59 degrees right at sunrise. Wind was very light at that time. Expecting that once things heat up...say by 10:00am...the weak inversion depicted on the sounding will mix out and those 30kt winds will mix/descend down to the surface. Any clouds generated by the mixing which will appear before that time should also 'dry out'. Thus, expecting a blustery day with winds in the 20-30mph range...could see some higher gusts up to 35 mph (perhaps even stronger?) over the open waters of the Banana River/Indian River/Various Lakes/off the coast/St. John River Valley Basin Territory. High around 71 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees.

TONIGHT: Wind will remain somewhat elevated but die to the 10-15mph. Sky mostly clear with a low around 55 (plus or minus 4-5 degrees depending on where one is located)

SUNDAY: Same as today.

EXTENDED: No reasonable weather worth mentioning until possibly Wednesday but even then not expecting any significant weather. Only thing notable is that we may cool by 2-5 degrees Wednesday through Saturday and there will be some periods where we actually have some decent clouds.

*NOTE: We are now entering the spring season in Central Florida and this is officially Florida's Severe Weather Month (the past two days was a good sampling). I have noticed historically that some days when interesting weather is to occur that some very interesting things can occur and it is likely I'll 'bust' on some forecasts (i.e., 'fail'). But we're ready to meet the challenge.

I love early spring as it works into full bore spring and eventually summer. It can be a very exciting period with beautiful days punctuated intermittently with some nasty storms. The trees start to spurt new leaves of life...birds can be heard 1/2 hour before sunrise...and sometimes we can hear them in the middle of the night through an open window.

Very adventuresome weather too; however, these days can sometimes be very difficult to peg down when it comes to forecasting the active days. For now though, not expecting any surprises for the next 5 days. Wake me when there's a smidge of a chance of rain......

Rain Today, Gone Tomorrow

Image: Computer generated depiction of how convoluted the surface features are forecast to be at 1pm

Very complicated reflection at the surface of what is happening aloft this morning (as you can see by the surface features provided in the image above). Despite all the complications involved, it currently appears that the threat of severe weather, or even thunder for that matter, is pretty low.

It does appear to me that there could be rotating storms if they existed sometime after 4pm; however, all resources including various offices as well as the models, indicate that by that time the rain my very well be over. I'd have to guess that the atmosphere is so worked over from this long duration rain as well as lack of (thermal) instability is off-setting anything that might make an "attempted act" (as one fellow chaser likes to call tornadoes).

TODAY: Low confidence forecast! Cloudy with light to moderate rain and maybe a rumble of thunder now and then. High today will probably not make it as warm as forecasted simply because of the rain. Let's take a shot at 71 degrees. Winds appear as though they will be light from a southerly component but pick up some by late afternoon as the front gets closer. The biggest challenge is determining just exactly when the rain will end, and if we'll actually have a 'storm' of sorts. By all indications it should be over by late afternoon and no storms, but I'm not thoroughly convinced! If we're going to get a storm it would be sometime in the 4-6pm time frame at the end of the rain period. Would be a nice finale wouldn't it? However, at this time it appears that when the parameters come together the rain will be out of the picture. Have I left you hanging? Now you know how I feel. Let's be optimistic though and go straight with the model forecast of ending the rain by mid-late afternoon with no storms.

TOMORROW: The parent low pressure that's causing all this 'weather' will be slowly oozing off to the east from the eastern U.S. coast approximately around Virginia-Maryland. It will be slow to move on so as a result circulation around it in combination with high pressure building in from the west will make for a breezy (from the west) day under partly cloudy skies and comfortably modest temperatures. It may actually end up being warmer along the coast than our previous "warm" days since we won't have a seabreeze advecting that cold air above the ocean's surface to the immediate coast. High in the low 70s and blustery.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Gradually waning west wind under partly cloudy skies and a low in the mid-upper 50s.

FURTHER OUT: Other than a weak frontal boundary affecting us on Wednesday the entire week will be uneventful. The next front on Wednesday will have only minor influence with a slight chance of showers for a yet to be determined small time frame...otherwise the next week looks to be close to what we would normally expect this time of year...just a few degrees cooler than what would be considered "normal". Lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs near 70 plus or minutes a degree or two after the front on Wednesday...before then in the low 70s.

When's the next big weather event? None on the horizon that can be stated with any degree of confidence.

Tornadoes/Severe Storms Possible

Above images: KSC 7am Sounding, forecast images showing fronts/rain and the low level jet at the 925mb level, and latest radar.

Mary Poppoins could have a field day today if she could get caught in a good updraft!! As mentioned yesterday, it looked like today could be a very active weather day. Nothing has changed from that reasoning for such to occur and, in fact, later tonight into very early Saturday we very well could revisit similar conditions.

TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Cloudy, breezy, and damp conditions this morning are harbingers of the incoming rain. First off! It should be noted that the short term model (RUC) is indicating No Rain for the majority of the day. So I'm keeping that possibility in the back of my mind. However, upon running a radar loop...the echos showing up along the west coast are moving steadily eastward...so that possibility might have to be discounted. The National Weather Service (NWS) has stated, and I quote:

"FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS DURING THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO."

All of the above is EXTREMELY realistic considering what is currently materializing ala the KSC Sounding. Timing places the onset of potentially severe conditions to ensue between 10am-12pm, but not necessarily at your location.

Conditions for nasty weather should wane by late afternoon; however, rain could and porbably will continue.

The following is quoted from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) based in Norman, OK.

"DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE."

What this all means is that the current setup which contains deep shear with height in a very moist environment SUPPORTS supercell thunderstorms which can generate tornadoes and strong wind gusts. This threat should begin to take shape near noon time then diminish by early evening...but yet another disturbance in the flow will again enhance the LLJ (Low Level Jet) and create similar conditions during the wee hours of Friday.

This is what a severe weather enthusiast lives for!

FRIDAY: This period will require major refinement today being potentially a BIG day....and possibly Friday as well...as many things can change. So let's just jump to Saturday.Note that I have stressed potentially....this does not mean it WILL occur..or if it does not necessarily at your location.

SATURDAY: Conditions for severe weather will have passed. The day will start out cloudy with lingering rain showers around, but conditions will gradually improve as the day wears on. One good thing out of all this...NO COLD WEATHER ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Uneventful and nice.

Please remain abreast with your local media resources since conditions can change very rapidly given the dynamics that the atmosphere contains today...you'd never know it to step outside though.

Spring is Springing in a BIG WAY

Image: Moon this morning at sunrise

After a respite from daily blog posts due to the fact that there's not much to write about when all we have is 'cold weather'...opportunity has now arisen for some morning musing. "Uh-Oh!" you say? You bet. That means active weather is on its' way...and in a big way.

Looks like the first Florida Spring Storm is on its way. Please note, this is a very complex scenario unfolding...therefore I'm leaving this very simple and to the point. Besides, I'm a bit rusty on putting thoughts on "paper" again.

TODAY: A nice day in store. For the most part our gradual warming trend will continue. However, as is always the case in the early spring temperatures become an issue. That is, if one is east of Merritt Island the afternoon sea breeze drops the temperature considerably during the afternoon. Therefore, even though areas west of M.I. will reach well into the 70s today..east of M.I. it might initially start to warm...but with ocean temperatures in the "50s"...coastal afternoon temperatures will fall into the upper 60s...and almost generically around 68 degrees during peak heating while inland it can be a good 10 degrees warmer. In any case, expect just some high clouds today with a very light SE wind.

A frontal system will be entering the panhandle early Thursday and a low (or serious of them) will form along the front in the Gulf and train across the Central Peninsula. That's about as simple as one can state what is to come. These low pressure systems along with interesting windfields aloft along with a huge slug of moisture will produce some interesting weather. Okay...here we go:

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds with very mild temperatures in the low-mid 60s across the boards with a light SSE wind.

THURSDAY: More mid-high level clouds with an increasing wind from the south at 10-20mph. to start the day. It's a close call though...because our friends in N. Florida are going to be getting slammed with the rain and storms. A harbinger of things to come. And they WILL come. Sometime between 12pm-3pm the rains will move in and they will be here to stay for a while!

Expect initially they will be in the form of thunderstorms (fingers crossed)...but as rain continues the atmosphere will stabilize too much for 'thunder'.

MORE ABOUT THURSDAY: 1) I wouldn't be surprised to hear about flood advisories being posted, and 2) We may end up in either a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. I'm guessing the latter! Wind fields look nearly excellent for a tornado potential by late in the afternoon on Thursday as a strong southern branch will be streaking overhead in combo with directional shear and diffluence aloft. The limiting factor for a more assured tornado threat is the lack of instability. However, I believe at the beginning of this "event" there will be more instability than we have had in any previous event this winter. So it is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED to remain abreast of the weather conditions via the media or weather radio (surely you have one by now!)

GOING INTO FRIDAY: Once the rains begin they will be here to stay. And we aren't talking little, dainty sprinkles. These could be heavy, torrential rains (periodically speaking)...so hold on to the raincoats and umbrellas...heck...might want to buy a canoe for this one. Expecting rainfall totals to easily be over 1" and perhaps up to 3-plus inches in some locales

FRIDAY: Thunderstorms..or possibly just lots of rain..pretty much all day with a healthy SW wind around 20mph gusting to 30mph at times.

SATURDAY: Looks like the rain will be slow to move out, but once it does it will be gone for good. It's a total guess as to when it will end...but I'm guessing now sometime around late morning.

Clearly refinement of this blogcast will be required with time. I've written this post without even the latest data...so I may be well off-base. Stay tuned!!

Clloudy Then Rain

Today will be characterized by mostly cloudy skies this morning as an upper level impulse moves overhead this morning. Clouds will break some by late this morning, but in general, it will be at least partly cloudy by afternoon with a high near 70 except right along the immediate coast which will be under the influence of the nearby very cool ocean water.

 

The big change begins later tomorrow as a more vigorous disturbance approaches by late Wednesday afternoon. Rain should be much more likely overnight into Thursday which will have a high chance of rainfall...and maybe some thunder.

 

Cold Mornings - Very Cool Days Be Gone!

(Image: Been saving this one for a time when we would be in a prolonged "no weather' period)

The highlight for this week is that there is nothing to write about. A 'non-event' cold front will pass through Brevard County early this evening between 6-8pm and clear the state by sunrise Tuesday. As alluded to yesterday, very little weather associated with this front. An increase in clouds and maybe some unmeasurable amount of rain in a few spotty locations...and even that is stretching it.

Otherwise, the weather pattern will continue status quo. Very generally speaking, other than a high around 67 near Canaveral today...the rest of the week can be characterized with: lows right around 40 along the A1A corridor and lowering to the mid 30s as one works inland and toward the Big Lake. Afternoon highs in the low to the lower mid 50s Tuesday-Thursday...warming to the upper 50s by late week and perhaps the very low 60s by the weekend. As usual, the further south one goes the warmer it will be...but not by much. All in all, everyone will experience temperatures below what one would normally expect to see in Central and South Florida this time of year.

High pressure will dominate the entire Gulf of Mexico beginning Wednesday through the weekend...with minor fluctuations during the period. This will result in winds going from NW to occasionally straight westerly. But no strong winds, no prolonged freezing temperatures (if any south of Daytona), no rain. Surely there'll be some mid or high level clouds to work into the equation with time...but in essence...very benign and cold mornings and very cool to eventually just cool afternoons sums it up through next weekend.

"Shoot The Messenger"

(Image: Don't Blame it on Rio...rather Nova Scotia)

There's the culprit up there by Nova Scotia (see image). The low exists in the mid through upper levels - up to jet stream level..and it is the flow around the "what seems to be a permanent fixture" that is giving us this very cool/cold weather. Things become less clear and vary quite a bit more as one works down to the ground as far as low and high pressure systems goes...but that is the overall predominant cause of our temperatures of late. Will it move out soon? Not for about 11 days. And as such, the mostly progressive pattern we've been in has been stifled...any storm systems to approach this area in the next 10 days won't be coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico but rather from a much drier continental direction.

Pretty chilly start to the day, but not as bad as was thought it would be. Most areas were in the mid-upper 30s west of the rivers, but Canaveral only got down to 42. Slight warming trend today with a very light north wind with a high predominantly on the high side of the mid-50s...around 57-58 area wide. Occasional high cirrus clouds will be abundant earlier in the day...but could very well decrease as we work toward noon and thereafter. A great day for the "races" in Daytona...but bring your Snuggie...or preferably, a coat. Wind won't be a factor today..and in fact it could be almost downright calm at sunset.

TONIGHT: Not as cold as last night, but as mentioned yesterday the extreme interior will still be pretty darned cold. The immediate coast from Canaveral and south and east of US1 couldmanage a 48 tonight...but well inland (and more toward the west side of the state) 35-40 or is much more likely.

MONDAY: Warmest day until next weekend, sad as it is. After a pretty cool but tolerable morning the temperature will be on the rebound as we work toward noon. Looking for a high tomorrow around 67 degrees with increasing high clouds ahead of the next cold front late in the afternoon...winds going from very light to a good 12-18mph out of the SW by shortly after noon time. Not bad really. At least it won't be a dank, ocean wind tomorrow...heck, if we could eke out enough sunlight we could be flirting with 70...but unlikely any where north of Sebastian.

MONDAY NIGHT: Looks like the cold front will be stretched diagonally across the state from near Jacksonville - Ocala - Brooksille around 6-7pm. By this time it will assuredly be pretty cloudy...but who cares...it'll be dark anyway and we have a new moon (very close to it anyway) so there's nothing to see. Rain? Chances are we'll be seeing a 20 or 30% figure for rain chances popping up in the media..but I'd give it no more than 10%..and that might be generous. Not expecting any accumulations even if it does.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will have gone through by sunrise with rapidly clearing skies (if they aren't already clear at sunrise). Temperature will be very cool to cold throughout the period, but nothing out of the norm (per this winter...but below what one would normally expect this time of year..on average). Averages are just that though...averages. That implies that sometimes it's warmer..sometimes it's colder. Just so happens to be that it's been the 'Sometimes Colder" option a LOT this winter. Overall, coastal lows in the low-mid 40s with highs in the mid-upper 50s...very slowly warming toward next weekend. Dry throughout the week and into the weekend.

BUT HOLD ON....the end of the tunnel is looking more likely to be in sight. By February 24th the true end of the tunnel might be reached. At least as we work toward March. But things also get much more interesting...our next true shot of a good rain, if it ever gets here, could be in the form of potentially severe weather. That is SO far out from now though...but indications at least are that the solid freezing line could be up into Tennessee if not further north as we work into the last week of February. Given we'll be approaching March by then...any cold spell will be short lived.

Quick post today due to time constraints. Everything is falling right in line from yesterday's post. As expected, we still have the clouds around early this morning. They will gradually clear out as we move toward noon time, as coverage is still pretty extensive across the central and southern peninsula. They are decreasing from north to south though as drier air moves in. Timing upon running a satellite loop would place clearing between 1-2pm...but with a little mixing they could clear out somewhat soon. Otherwise.....

TODAY: Cloudy to start with eventually clearing as we work into the afternoon. As mentioned yesterday, we might not even see 50 degrees today, or if so, by a hair. I think we'll eke out that hair from Canaveral northward. Further south toward Satellite Beach and Melbourne it's much more likely. We nailed the forecast low right on the head for Canaveral. Most areas were around 40 this morning...and of course colder when going further north. Although it could reach 50 to low 50s it's still going to feel pretty cold with a good NW breeze going.

TONIGHT: Skies will have cleared and high pressure will be stretched all across the northern border of the Gulf of Mexico. Colder air will be pulled down from the north due to circulation around this high as well as down the backside of the mid-level trough as it pulls further away from the state over the Atlantic. Temperatures will drop accordingly.

(Image: Decided just to throw a picture of "Lola" in this morning. She finds solace on the pillow side of the lap desk)

SUNDAY: Overall, this will be the coldest day for a while. Very chilly with widespread mid-30s west of the Indian River the whole way south to the Big Lake. Still think the A1A corridor will be the warmest...but regardless...we could see 38 degrees here with very light winds as high pressure will be nearly overhead by sunrise under clear skies. Further south toward the Big Lake some jet stream cirrus could be stream aloft...but nothing of much consequence. Believe Sunday afternoon will be a little warmer than today though...getting into the mid-50s about everywhere..with upper 50s from Melbourne and points south.

MONDAY: Another cold morning..but not quite as wide spread. Believe the mid-30s will be confined to the ultimate interior (or spine) of the state with low 40s more of the rule. A1A corridor could actually be in the mid-upper 40s from Canaveral and points south. Clouds on the increase by afternoon Monday as the next cold front pulls into the station from the Southern Plains states. The front will cross the Central Peninsula late in the day and be accompanied by a lot of clouds and maybe a couple spits of rain just barely reaching the ground..but I wouldn't expect enough for an actual measurement in the old rain gauge. We could get into the low 60s by a hair on Monday...which will be somewhat nicer...but nothing to write home about...if you know what I mean. Besides, with the clouds around ...dependant on the timing of the clouds..upper 50s may end up being the rule.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Continued cold mornings and very cool afternoons with highs eventually reaching the low-mid 60s (the further south one is..the warmer it will be). The extreme east coast will be appreciably warmer than the interior the entire week. Hopefully this will be the last prolonged cold spell of the winter. With stress on HOPEFULLY.

I took a peak at the crystal ball extended forecast for the end of the month. If you can believe it, the GFS model actually had the freezing line the whole way up into Canada (rather than along the Florida-Georgia border as it will be this upcoming week). That's a MAJOR change..so don't know how much credibility to put into that one. Regardless, it's getting to the time of year that cold spells just don't last that long. We can still get a real cold one, but they don't last long.

Just need to survive this week.

Shiver My Timbers... Snow in the Deep South!

(Images: Satellite imagery at 11:30am and 11am Sfc Plots with approximate low/fronts)

Some areas in the Deep South are receiving snow...areas that haven't seen snow in over a decade! A very complex scenario is unfolding this morning as far as trying to 'divie up' where it could get above 60 degrees with SSW winds today. For now, everything seems to be pretty much on status quo with yesterday's thinking. Only change is that I believe the warm front will make it through most of Brevard County by 4-5pm...and if this happens we will see a brief warm up at a very odd time of the day (very late afternoon). We'll know for sure when the wind suddenly becomes SE then very rapidly veers to the SW and strengthens into the 20mph range within a matter of just 1 1/2 - 2 1/2 hours. It's going to be a close one though from Titusville and points north (namely between Titusville to just south of Daytona seems to be furthest north the warm front will ultimately reach)

And things will continue to happen FAST today into tonight. The surface low will be just off the west coast near Tampa at 1:00pm...and six hours later it will already be exiting the east coast right near Cocoa Beach.

Expecting even thicker clouds and eventually rain to be on the increase from North to South...and from West to East throughout the early afternoon. Cape Canaveral and points south might not actually see any of the true rain until the 3-4pm time frame..whereas further west and north...even the Orlando area will experience it appreciably sooner than that. Once it's here though, it'll be here to stay...for about 3 1/2- 5 hours. I wouldn't make any plans for outside activities at 7pm...that's for sure. Between 6-7:30pm seems to be the time frame that east central Florida will bear the brunt of whatever is going to happen as far as rain goes. I think there's supposed to be movie showing outside tonight...sort of like a "movie on the green"...somewhere in Brevard...have fun with that one.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: Rain will have been tapering off from Northwest to Southeast during the mid-evening hours but it will be continued cloudy for a while longer. The wind will quickly shift to the WNW to NW immediately following FROPA (frontal passage) and the temperatures will drop by 7-10 degrees within the first hour of that event. The cloud forecast is a little trickier. But believe the majority of clouds will have begun to clear out by sunrise.

SATURDAY: A cold one for sure although nothing record breaking. It is possible that from Melbourne to Tampa and points north we do not reach 50 degrees on Saturday after starting out around 40 along the coast. For real?! If it does reach 50 along that line..it will be by a hair. Any remaining clouds will be on the clear during the late morning hours as strong high pressure fully exerts itself down the peninsula with a punch of NW wind gusts in the 18-28mph range.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Shiver my timbers. The wind will die down appreciably as the high pressure center begins to move over head...thank goodness because it's going to be pretty cold. The A1A corridor from Canaveral south just might eke out a low of 40, but I'm more inclined to lean more toward a low of 38 and only from Melbourne Beach south holding at 40. West of the Banana River expect wide spread mid 30s and even lows 30s in some pockets as far south as the north shores of the Big Lake. The remainder of the day will remain mostly sunny with high in the mid-50s and with very light winds it will seem like a blessing after what Saturday will have wrought.

MONDAY: Another cold start to the day with freezing temperatures in spots across much of the peninsula under basically a calm wind. I think the coast might actually be a little warmer though than Sunday morning as this will be more a drainage, down the spine of the state scenario which typically leaves the A1A corridor anywhere from 7-10 degrees warmer than west of the Banana and especially the Indian River.

That's enough for now, but in case your interested...don't plan on packing away the coats anytime soon. Another re-enforcing shot of 'more of the same' is in store for later Tuesday-Thursday or Friday. Let's just get through the next 36 hours...don't want to bite of more than we can chew.

"Dixie Dumping" - Cold For the Month?!

(Image: 8:30am Satellite Image - Enjoy "what" while it last?..huh?)

I think the Atlas will launch this morning..but what's there to enjoy "while it lasts"? (you know the saying) If one enjoys very cool/cold weather then you'll be in heaven for a LONG time. Okay, the sun is out now, but it got down to 41 on the porch this morning while PAFB was reporting 40. Temperatures were right on track ala Tuesday's post...although it didn't get quite as cold inland as expected...but only by a few degrees. Just away from the coast it was in the mid-upper 30s. It's still cold...but not freezing unless one heads toward the panhandle.

Okay, so about the time the sun will be at its prime today those clouds you see on the satellite image will be moving in. As a result, the high temperature will held at bay and remain in the mid-upper 50s. Given those clouds are coming in, it might actually end up being cooler than yesterday (which had full sunshine) by a degree or two. Winds to remain NW but not as strong as yesterday.

TODAY: Sunny this morning with increasing clouds beginning around 11AM-noon time. Cool with a high in the mid-upper 50s with a noticeable NW wind, in the 8-18mph range.

TONIGHT: Not as cold under a good blanket of high and mid-level clouds. All areas of the state will be noticeably warmer than the last two with wide spread 40s across the boards. Warmest along the east coast with continued NW winds but decreasing in strength.

FRIDAY: Start out the day in the mid-upper 40s under a dense overcast with rains approaching.

Low pressure which is now taking shape in the extreme western Gulf this morning will be moving steadily east and approaching the state on Friday. A warm front ahead of this system will evolve across the state but likely never make it further north than a Sarasota-Sebastian line....and it is this front that will act as the precursor of things to come during the day. Very generous isentropic lift along/over this barrier will result in widespread rain along and north of the front. First around the Big Bend of Florida then spreading east and south (and more directly related/along the warm front) during the morning hours as the low pressure system approaches and exerts its force across the front.

Expect that once the rain starts, whether one is up by Ocala..over in Tampa...or south to West Palm..that once the rain starts it will be around for about 12 hours. Heaviest rainfall totals will be right along and just north of where the warm front decides to set camp. At this time...it looks like Central Florida on a line from NE Polk County east to Cocoa Beach area is in for as much as a 1" + of rain...with a secondary area from Ocala-Jacksonville.

Could be worse though. It looks like snow can be expected from Dallas - much of Louisiana-South half of Mississippi-South half of Alabama- and much of Georgia starting this morning through Friday night. Heck, we can even throw in that possibility (although minimal) into the mix for the NW Florida Panhandle.

Temperature. It won't be quite as cold as was feared during the rain. Thus, no sleet (particularly due to warm upglide at the 950-800mb level over head along the warm front). But due to prolonged period of preceding cloudiness before the rain...then evaporative cooling..then eventually rain...it will be a cold rain here..but if we're lucky around Canaveral it could get into the mid 60s. But that's a BIG "IF". As always, cooler to the north and warmer to the south.

Wind: From a Tampa to Palm Bay line and points north the wind will likely never achieve a southerly component at all (again, all contingent upon where the warm front ends up). Instead, the wind will become NE for a while until the low moves well into the Atlantic and high pressure reasserts its influence over the state.

FRIDAY NIGHT: The low pressure will track almost right along wherever the warm front lays across the state and exit off the east coast round 11PM -1AM. But it could rain well in the wee hours of the morning, mainly right along the east coast from Melbourne Beach, north to Daytona.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Saturday could dawn with residual clouds around from backwash behind the low as it moves away, but for the most part it will be partly cloudy if not better with brisk NW winds..and you know what brisk NW winds in the winter means! More cold for Sunday morning. Sunday will likely be even colder than this morning was for a vast majority of the state with mid 30s encompassing a large area and right around 40 along the A1A corridor from Canaveral, south.

THE FUTURE: They'll be more to talk about in the coming week(s) ahead. Already there are indications that at least two more systems will be affecting the area with cold impacts in the next 10 days...and beyond! But just thought I'd throw this little gem in...but do it with a grain of salt or dash of pepper. We might not see 70 degrees for the immediate east coast north of Canaveral for the remainder of February. That really is off the wall though...and seems highly unlikely. But note...that would only be from Canaveral north...right along the coast.

Cold For A Week And... Will The Atlas Launch?

(Image: Satellite Imagery at 11am shows approaching conditions from the west)

In a nutshell, enjoy today...while it lasts. Some nice little breaks in the clouds right now (as I type at 12 pm) over east Central Florida from Titusville and points south...but that won't last for long. A strong cold front is approaching the state today...which will put an end to any hopes of spring being right around the corner for quite some time.

TODAY: High temperature could reach the mid-70s from a Melbourne on the east coast to inland of Naples on the west coast and points south line...low 70s along the east side of the state south of Titusville but cooler the further west and north one goes ...It seems a weak warm frontal type boundary passed overhead and will remain just to the north from Volusia on the east coast to just south of Crystal River on the west coast for the remainder of the day.

Accompanying that boundary was some Virga (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) from Canaveral over toward Orlando which was evident on Tampa's radar scope...but that has since moved on. The wind is gusting out of the south to over 20mph across much of the southern part of the state..and those winds will be realized more locally by 2pm ahead of the approaching COLD front. And I do mean COLD in every way. As we work into the mid afternoon a rain shield currently approaching the west coast near Tampa (and already over land north of there) will be moving in. First hitting the Tampa area, then Orlando...then eventually all of Brevard (north part first then working south with time) by 3-5pm. At first the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground..but it should become felt by 5-6pm. Totally overcast conditions will precede the rainshowers...as will gradually increasing winds out of the SSW-SW by late afternoon. If one has stuff to do outside..."Get'r Done" before sunset if along the east coast and north of Melbourne. Areas further south of a Sarasota to Brevard/Indian River County line could hold off on rain until after sunset. Lucky dogs.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW: The warmest of temperatures for Wednesday will occur during its first hour...i.e. midnight -1am...as was mentioned yesterday. Then it's Bombs Away for the mercury on the thermometer. The cold front will have cleared the entire state by sunrise. Continued cloudy until right after FROPA (frontal passage) as strong NW winds harbor in the cold/much drier air. Cold wind chills will definitely be a factor ALL DAY tomorrow with a high probably we will not be getting out of the low 50s. I wonder if the Atlas will be able to launch from Pad 41 in the morning?! I'm giving it a "no go" due to winds.

THURSDAY: Very cold all day. Won't be surprised to hear freeze advisories being issued as far south as Okeechobee in the interior portions of the state and especially from Orlando north for all areas. Extreme East Central Florida should escape a freeze though..with a low near 40 degrees. But west of the Banana River toward Cocoa expect a rapid drop off into the low-mid 30s by 3am....with continued breezy conditions. Actually, the wind might be the saving grace from getting to freezing from Orlando-South. If one has plants to protect..I'd start today in whatever procedure you probably have already established. We're getting good at that this year, unfortunately.

FRIDAY: Another cold start to the day...with only a minor rebound in temperatures. Still don't think we'll see 60s though...even though another system will be winding up in the Gulf and approaching the area. This low has been shown for two days now (by the GFS model) to track across the Southern part of the state..and the latest run depicts this even more so..even further south in fact. Pretty darned unusual.

Expecting a cold rain to be induced by weak isentropic lift ahead of the low across much of Central Florida by late afternoon with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Because dry air will already be in place..the rain may actually evaporate before reaching the ground...but feel that it eventually will. Timing on this possibility will most assuredly need to be refined as the time draws nigh. I was actually wondering if we'll be hearing reports of sleet at sometime during the late Friday/Saturday "event"...but so far I think we'll be okay on that one.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: Regardless of where the low pressure crosses the state and just exactly when..it looks like pretty much a guarantee that with its passage we will again be greeted by a reinforcing cold blast straight from our good neighbors in Canada to last until at least Monday.

I blame it all on the Canadians. Apparently they are very efficient packers...because they've remembered to bring the weather with them. Where's a Hawaiian when you need one?!

More Cool To Cold Days Ahead

(Image: The palm and vine, back when they were green. After this winter it's all brown now)

Cold start for most everywhere this morning across Central Florida except the extreme east central portion (along/east of A1A). For instance, while Melbourne was 40 degrees Canaveral and Patrick AFB were 51. All areas as far south as Miami were colder than the immediate vicinity. But shortly after sunrise everyone caught up and have since equaled out with temps in the upper 50s for the most part.

TODAY: Far from stellar...but for a winter day one can't complain. Lots of high clouds today continue streaming overhead as of 1pm..right at max heating time. Therefore, the high temperature today will struggle to make it out of the lower 60s. There is a weak surface 'bubble' low of the coast which will have just enough influence to keep the winds backed to the NNE until after sunset, but they will remain very light. Circulation around this low will continue to filter in the cool air well after sunset.

TONIGHT: Continued light NNE-NE wind all night, but not as cold. Inland will be 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning was. The immediate coast will be warmer too, but not quite as significantly so.

TOMORROW: After a warmer start to the morning...the afternoon will be pleasant as well. But not as nice as one could hope. Thinking now is that it will be cooler than previously thought with a high in the low 70s under filtered sunlight. Clouds will be on the increase by mid-light afternoon as the next system approaches but we should remain dry during the daylight areas. The west coast from Tampa north..and the panhandle are much more likely to see some rain though before sunset.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY: It's likely that the warmest time during this period will be around 2am..yup, in the middle of the night. Clouds will thicken up...and a cooling rain will make the overnight hours potentially crummy but good for sleeping. I'm seeing some possibility of thunder with the system on TV...but I don't see it. The cold front will have likely already passed by sunrise...and strong cold air advection will be in full force during the day, Wednesday. The temperature is unlikely to rise much at all (if even) during the day...and the WNW-NW winds gusting to 20-25mph will make it feel even colder than the sub-60 degrees we'll have all day. NOT FUN. Clouds should be on the wane as we work toward noon time at least. But it's going to be a true winter day. But no freezing temperatures at least.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Continue the cold streak sums it up. No appreciable warming for quite some time. Even just prior to the next front's arrival near Saturday we won''t warm up all so great. Essentially, I'm preparing for lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s...eventually the 60s by Friday. Inland areas can make those morning lows in the 30s though.

SEVERE WEATHER: At this time, it seems unlikely. We were too stable in prior fronts to generate severe weather here, and this time we look to be even more stable. Would like to at least hear a thunder rumble...but for now I would be very wary of placing any bets on that possibility. All in all...typical El Nino weather. Very cool...periodic cloudy spurts...and benign.

Did I mention, after Tuesday Night's and Saturday's System there'll be another one already formulating in the western Gulf with its eyes on us once.... again? For shame.

Very Cool The Next 24 Hours - But No Blizzards Here

(Image: Latest Satellite image depicting cloud cover around 9:30am)

We're right on track as far as temperatures goes from Friday's post, but the clouds are definitely hanging around more than expected. Latest surface data and the KSC sounding shows (1) Dew points across the area are dropping off nicely this morning...hence..even drier air today (2) Strong subsidence inversion exists just below 850mb trapping any remaining atmospheric moisture at the lowest levels (hence, the stratocumulus clouds). (3) Mid level 'trough' pushing south overhead (sort of like an elevated cold front)

LAST NIGHT: With the clouds coming in, overnight lows didn't drop off as much as they could have. However, it didn't affect the blog forecast as far as lows along the coast goes. We still got down to the upper 40s. It was the inland areas that were spared from the expected low 40s as a result of the "cloud blanket"...and they saw mostly mid-40s instead.

TODAY/TONIGHT: Still think Monday morning will be the coldest of mornings as was alluded to several days ago. Also, the train of thought continues with the notion that we won't reach 60 degrees today..or if so..for maybe an hour (or two at max). Clouds you ask? Good question! As you can see by the attached satellite image there is a healthy dose of them...they are shifting from north to south..at least that's how it looks from the satellite loop...although the winds at that level are from the west. Believe that with the ground level dew points falling that these clouds will begin to erode from the bottom up but that they will not disappear entirely..especially along the coast. The RUC is currently showing that they shouldn't even be there...at all!...The NAM picked up on them a little better..but just barely. All in all - they both 'failed" on depicting this cloudy scenario. I believe they will continue to be around all day for areas east of I-95 with some breaks during the mid-afternoon...but not looking for any full sun today. With that thinking in mind, believe that the temperature will have a hard time reaching 60s degrees. It seemed we would have a hard time doing that even when not considering there would be clouds around...so now that notion is just being reinforced.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING: Should add that these clouds might also be being enhanced by the secondary weak trough of low pressure rotating around the back of that monster storm which impacted the DelMarVa area yesterday as related to above. Believe that (1) after the trough passes overhead today and (2) the low moves yet further off to the ENE, and (3) strong high pressure builds south from near James Bay -- being enhanced along the Appalachians AND snow covered, cold land mass to the north at the surface...that this will be enough to clear us out by or shortly after sunset (hopefully sooner). The end result of all of the just stated is that tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning of all for the entire peninsula as drainage flow down the spine of the state ensues without the cloud blanket.

Sure hope the launch can go..but honestly, I'm not 100% sold on the notion that it will just yet. We'll have a much better idea though well before bed time. Once the lower clouds clear out they'll be gone for good (at least in the short term). It's just IF they can clear out. Going to go on the optimstic side though (at least more optimistic than I was last night at bed time)...and give it the 'green light'.

TOMORROW: After a cold start, tomorrow should be warmer than both Saturday and today will be. In fact, it could be 5-9 degrees warmer tomorrow with a light north wind and partly cloud skies. Far from "pleasant'...but considering we're not buried in snow or having freezing temperatures...I'd be ashamed to complain. Be that as it may...these temperatures are not 'pleasing'.

TUESDAY AND POINTS ON: Winter has definitely come to stay as a series of fast moving systems continue to generate along the southern branch El-Nino like jet stream. The result is less than stellar conditions for a prolonged period of time. Tuesday will be the best of days...with milder sunrise temperatures as the wind will have swung to an onshore component by Monday afternoon...albeit a very light one. By sunrise Tuesday the wind will be more southeasterly and eventually SSW during the course of the day...resulting in a temperature in the mid 70s. Was tempted to say upper 70s but I believe there will be too many clouds that will offset sufficient heating for a warmer day. If we're going to see any rain it will be sometime after sunset Tuesday night through about one hour within sunrise Wednesday. After that? You guessed it..colder temperatures again, but not down to freezing (literally speaking). After another two days of very cool temperatures (back to the 40s for lows) another system will be on the approach. The surface low with the next one after Tuesday/Wednesday's (i.e., on Saturday) might actually pass across South Florida. This means we would not even see a warm front preceding its passage as we have been getting all winter...thus, no great warm up before it.

As for severe weather? This is always the most fun part to try to forecast...so you might get a hint by the statement that " I don't think we'll be having much 'fun'"...but it's definitely worth watching! Just don't see any for either of the next two systems. Wind fields look pretty impressive for this next one, but as has been the case this winter..and even more so for Tuesday/Wednesday...thermodynamics will be the pits...abundant cloud cover induced by isentropic lift ahead of the system will greatly inhibit instability across Central Florida. But don't give up the ship just yet!

Menacing Mid-Atlantic Mid-Winter Menace

(Image: radar as of 12:55pm EST)

As mentioned earlier, there would likely be a blog update posted. For the most part, surprisingly, one is really not needed. So this will be brief. If you haven't heard by now, the areas around the nation's capitol is in for 1-2 FEET of snow, and the store shelves have rapidly emptied in preparations. Turn into the news or TWC...you can't miss but hearing about it.

Locally, the only feature that stands out in my mind at this time is that the surface winds across all of Central Florida are remaining backed and are not veering toward the SW just ahead of approaching line of storms. Winds just off the deck are increasing as well. Noticed a gust of 40 mph out of due south last hour at Clearwater just ahead of the line. Therefore, expect even stronger than anticipated low level helicities stronger than previously thought. If we had good (meaning very unstable) thermodynamics across the area today we'd probably be in a tornado watch right now. But such is not the case...therefore, no changes to previous thinking. Timing even remains pretty much on cue. Our main threat will be strong wind gusts if one happens to encounter a storm. Remember, just because the threat is real does not mean it will happen right where you live. One can experience very little other than some rain, whereas just a few miles away all hell could be breakig lose.

The lower cloud deck moved right on in is as expected, and such will be the case sky wise for the rest of the day. Some rain showers are popping up across Central Florida to the south which are rapidly moving off to the ENE...but it appears those will remain south of the immediate area, but S. Osceola County, S. Brevard, and Indian River Counties will probably get a sampling of this activity.

Otherwise, still expecting the worst of the weather to be approaching-- if not occurring-- between 5-7pm across most of East Central Florida. The Orlando area of course will be in 'it' 1- 1 1/2 hours sooner.

Anyone with at least a little common sense might want to tune into Channel 13 or 9...or The Weather Channel if you don't have a S.A.M.E. Alert'able' Weather Radio to keep abreast of the latest...particularly after 3pm...as things could get pretty active in these parts by late afternoon. It's worth noting though, on the brighter side, that little to no lightning activity is being detected at this time that will impact Central Florida in the very near term. Most of the lightning is heading to the West Coast south of Sarasota. This area though needs to be monitored as it might be just what kicks things into high gear as it moves just north of due east. Hence, for the more immediate area, it might be the south 1/2 of Osceola and Brevard Counties (and points further south)...that experience the meanest punch later today. But like I mentioned, if things start to look nasty the local channels will likely be covering the event live as things unfold.

Possible Thunder and Strong Storms - Blog Update Likely To Be Required

(Images show radar as of 8:40am and concurrent satellite IR imagery).

We're pretty much on track today with yesterday's discussion, with some differences which will be noted below. The main differences are the timing on the arrival of rain/storms and their intensity.

TODAY: Cloudy skies this morning with a few peaks of sun now and then will yield to a mid-low level overcast between 11am-noon time. This will limit the amount of heating we receive this afternoon, thus preempting our chances of reaching 80 degrees...but mid-upper 70s isn't bad.

The wind will be gusting at times in the 20-30mph range, mainly across open areas such as on the beach or along the rivers. But it will be a warm, energy filled wind that will lift our spirits (and kites). Other than a few very light sprinkles, we should remain rain free on the east side of the peninsula until at least 2:30pm. Folks west and north of I-4 (more precisely, the Panhandle)are already seeing the rain moving in. The Tampa area will start to get rain/storms a good 3-5 hours before the immediate east coast does. The Orlando area of course falls somewhere in between the two.

TIMING AND INTENSITY: First intensity - As noted above, the main differences from yesterday's discussion are in both timing and intensity of this system, but not by much. It's been stated for days now that some of the storm activity with this system could be on the strong side, mainly from winds. This train of thought has not changed at all. The change is that it looks more likely to occur rather than less likely. Both the NAM and GFS models support the notion of moderate to strong speed maxes to cross the central Florida Peninsula beginning the early afternoon and favorable divergence at the jet stream level (approx. 30,000 ft.) will enhance lift. BUT, thermodynamically speaking, and as was also briefly mentioned yesterday, it's not looking so great for severe weather. There is some warm air over running us just overhead (what we need is colder air aloft to add to atmospheric "lift"..and hence convection --thunderstorms.).

In fact, SPC (the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma) has placed most of peninsular Florida in a "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms, due to winds (no hail)...and even alludes to a low end chance of isolated tornadoes. All of the NWS offices are in general consensus...and in this case I'm not one to go out on the 'disagreement' limb for now.

Believe the leading edge of those lower clouds shown on the satellite depiction is caused by the over running warm air. They are steadily approaching like a rentless troop of soldiers on attack...and will be in the area by noon time. Regardless, the wind (speed and shear) can't be ignored and therefore I'm riding with what our official resources are seeing...that being that some strong storms (winds in those storms) are a real possibility...possibly in excess of 58mph in gusts with the strongest of storms (should you happen to be impacted by one).

Now Timing - here's where it gets even trickier. The GFS and NAM are a full 6 hours apart as to when the worst of weather will move in, with the GFS being the faster. The GFS has been consistently too fast all this winter with these systems...so I'm not buying fully into that. On the other hand, based on latest satellite/radar loops..the NAM looks to slow!...Gads. So if we essentially take an average between the two..what it amounts to is for points east of Orlando..be on the look out for rain/storms to start to impact the area in the 4-8pm time frame. This is a big window considering how close the system is now. Perhaps the next model runs will shed more light. At this time, they are not yet available. This post is more of a HEADS UP but don't run for cover just yet 'blogging'....just to get the information out there well ahead of time.

Overnight Saturday-Tuesday: The worst will be over by sunrise as the rain will have ended and skies clear. Nothing has changed at all for this time period from yesterday's post. The high on Saturday will likely be within 1-2 hours of sunrise. Level off, then likely start to drop by mid-late afternoon ending up in the upper 40s along the coast and low to mid 40s west of the Banana River. Cool through Monday...then gradually moderating temperatures. Too much going on now (today) for indepth elaboration which will need refinement with time anyway. Let's just get through today/tonight...and horrors upon horrors..Sunday. Hey...where'd I stock the hot chocolate?

Nice Warm Days Will Yield To Winter's Wrath--Too Soon

("In Memory Of...") June 21, 2009 when it got up to 100 degrees in Cape Canaveral. Not sure if that was a good thing...but it sure sounds nice right about now.

Low level inversion and moisture trapped beneath will generate patches of stratocumulus clouds today across all of the area with gradually warming temperatures. The wind will remain easterly all day generally 10mph or less. All in all..respectfully uneventful sums it up. In the meantime, a low pressure system will be developing in the western Gulf south of the heal of Louisana during the day. Our next weather maker...and for the mid-Atlantic states...get your snow shovels ready! Here comes Papa. Closer to Home....

TONIGHT -EARLY TOMORROW: High pressure to our north will move off the U.S. east coast over night...gradually shifting winds to the SE-SSE over night. A modestly strong pressure gradient will become established during the course of the day, Friday, as the wind becomes more southerly and increases under considerable high cloudiness streaking overhead in prelude to the approaching system. Very mild overnight low temperatures for tonight, probably well above 60 degrees along the coast.

TOMORROW: Warmest of days for a while. Could even get up to 80 degrees pretty much everywhere..if not a few degrees warmer away from the coast. Lots of high clouds though with an increasing middle layer deck through the course of the day. But pretty much no rain except for those west and north of I-4 during the daylight hours. As a result, for most of Central Florida the atmosphere will feel "alive"...warm, windy, and energetic...very unlike the 'dead' of winter.

What a great way to end the work week.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: Alas, it's not spring yet...and as such, we will be dutifully reminded. As has been advertised for several days now, this is the period we are most likely to receive rain and possibly thunder. Some how this year has almost always managed to give us the possibility of the worst of weather when it's dark...curses. There is still the possibility of some thunderstorms with this system...some of which could have strong winds...but as has been the course of events for this year instability will be greatly lacking. But good speed shear will create the possibility for some robust updrafts, so a strong storm or two with strong winds will not be discounted. All of the most active weather for East Central Florida will occur somewhere between 3am and sunrise. Might add, our warmest temperature of the day on Saturday will likely be within 1-2 hours of sunrise.

SATURDAY NOON-TUESDAY: The system will have cleared most of the state by noon and cold /dry air advection will ensue. Back to winter in other words. Expect sky conditions to greatly improve, but don't think we'll like the very cool and breezy NW winds that will accompany those clearing skies. Sunday and Monday will be cold with lows in the low-mid 40s west of the Indian River and upper 40s to near 50 east of there both mornings. We could be hard pressed to reach 60 degrees on Sunday! Good day to be inside for Big Game preparations. But given that we are almost 1 1/2 months past our shortest day of the year (December 21)...the greater sun angle under clear skies might help us break 60 on Sunday...just maybe. More assuredly on Monday, especially as the wind will start to swing around more toward the NNE.

Should add, as alluded to we are getting to the point where we are getting longer days and a higher sun angle. This can make forecasting afternoon high temperatures a little tricky during this time of the year.

BEYOND TUESDAY: As is almost always the case a few days after frontal passage, winds will swing around to a more easterly component in preparation for the next approaching system. At this time it looks more like it will merely bring a return to slightly cooler weather, and vigorous 'storm activity' does not appear to be nearly as likely...if indeed it even rains upon its arrival. That's quite some time from now...must first "survive" this cool/cold 'two day snap'. Does this mean we have to wear long pants again? GASP!!

January 2010 One of the Overall Coldest Months On Record For East Central Florida

 

 The following excerpt was solely generated by the NWS in Melbourne. Kudos to them

for making this information available. I'm posting this write up in lieu of a forecast discussion for

today. Will be back tomorrow. For now...Friday will be our warmest in a while...but cloudy.

Rain Friday night until very early Saturday. Cold Sunday and Monday.

JANUARY 2010 WILL BE WELL REMEMBERED FOR HAVING ONE OF THE LONGEST   
STRETCHES OF COLDER WEATHER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED ON  
RECORD. SEVERAL STRONG FRONTS PUSHED ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING   
REINFORCING COLD AIR...FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND A RARE WINTRY MIX  
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH AND STRONG TO   
SEVERE STORMS TOWARDS THE END.          
         
THE MONTH BEGAN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION   
WHICH USHERED IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER EAST CENTRAL   
FLORIDA. THIS COLD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE THROUGH THE 13TH OF JANUARY   
DUE TO REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON THE   
5TH...8TH...AND 12TH. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES AT MOST SITES   
FROM THE 2ND THROUGH THE 13TH WERE AROUND 16 TO 17 DEGREES BELOW   
NORMAL. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE   
OBSERVED ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH NUMEROUS RECORD LOW   
TEMPERATURES BROKEN. EVEN SEVERAL RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE   
RECORDS WERE SHATTERED AS DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED   
AT OR BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE COLD PERIOD.   
 
TO PUT THE LENGTH OF THIS COLD SPELL IN PERSPECTIVE...DAYTONA   
BEACH...ORLANDO...MELBOURNE...AND VERO BEACH BROKE OR TIED THE   
GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAINED AT   
OR BELOW 60 DEGREES. ALSO VERO BEACH BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE   
LONGEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO   
FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING.   
 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN A ROW WHEN MAX TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR   
EQUAL TO 60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT:  
 
SITE                 DAYS (JAN 2010)      RECORD (MONTH/YEAR)  
 
DAYTONA BEACH              12                 8 (DEC/1995)     
ORLANDO                    11                 8 (DEC/1995)  
MELBOURNE                   6                 6 (JAN/1977)      
VERO BEACH                  6                 6 (JAN/1977)  
 
CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN A ROW WHEN MIN TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR   
EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT:  
 
SITE                 DAYS (JAN 2010)      RECORD (MONTH/YEAR)  
 
DAYTONA BEACH               5                 6 (DEC/1962)     
ORLANDO                     4                 6 (JAN/1977)   
MELBOURNE                   4                 5 (JAN/1977)      
VERO BEACH                  8                 4 (JAN/1981)  
   
MORE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNED FOR   
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND   
DURATION OF THE COLD SPELL LED TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES   
THAT WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VERO BEACH HAD ONE OF THE   
LARGER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THE MONTH OF -6.7   
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH WAS ITS 4TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.   
ORLANDO HAD ITS 5TH COLDEST AND MELBOURNE HAD ITS 4TH COLDEST   
JANUARY ON RECORD WITH DEPARTURES OF -6.5 AND -5.7 DEGREES   
FAHRENHEIT RESPECTIVELY. DAYTONA BEACH ENDED UP WITH AN AVERAGE   
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE OF -5.1 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH RANKED AS ITS   
7TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.       
 
MANY OF THE COLD FRONTS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING JANUARY 2010   
BROUGHT BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A   
COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE   
ALSO LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PREDAWN TO MID   
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE 9TH MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET WITH A FEW   
REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS   
MIXED PRECIPITATION (ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS) CAME IN FROM ACROSS THE   
AREA FROM OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO AS FAR SOUTH AS   
KISSIMMEE...PALM BAY...AND VERO BEACH. THE LAST TIME WINTER TYPE   
PRECIPITATION OCCURRED IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WAS IN 2008 WHEN SNOW   
FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES ON JANUARY   
3RD.   
 
THE STRONG FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED OVER   
THE REGION BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO NORTHERN   
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE MONTH. HOWEVER MOST OF   
THESE LINES OF PRECIPITATION BECAME MORE BROKEN AND WEAKENED AS THEY   
MOVED SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO AND KISSIMMEE METRO AREA. THIS RESULTED    
IN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OVER THE NORTH AND   
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL TOTALS FARTHER SOUTH. DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED   
5.92 INCHES DURING THE MONTH WHICH WAS ITS 4TH WETTEST JANUARY ON   
RECORD (1ST IS 7.16 INCHES SET BACK IN 1986). A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE   
STORMS OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THESE FRONTS ON THE 22ND WHERE A EF0   
TORNADO (WINDS OF 65 TO 85 MPH) FORMED AND MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY FROM VIERA TO COCOA BEACH CAUSING MINOR   
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND KNOCKING DOWN TREES.             
 
BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL   
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE   
MONTH OF JANUARY 2010:  
 
STATION        JANUARY 2010     30 YEAR   DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF  
                 RAINFALL       NORMAL    FROM NORMAL     NORMAL  
 
DAYTONA BEACH      5.92"         3.13"       2.79"         189%  
(DAB)  
ORLANDO            3.53"         2.43"       1.10"         145%  
(MCO)  
MELBOURNE          0.94"         2.48"      -1.54"          38%  
(MLB)  
VERO BEACH         0.94"         2.89"      -1.95"          33%  
(VRB)  
CLERMONT           3.11"         3.11"       0.00"         100%  
(CLRF1)  
DELAND             5.83"         3.35"       2.48"         174%  
(DELF1)  
SANFORD            3.84"         2.88"       0.96"         133%  
(SFNF1)  
TITUSVILLE         3.00"         2.79"       0.21"         108%  
(TITF1)  
FORT PIERCE        1.30"         2.70"      -1.40"          48%  
(FPCF1)  
STUART             2.50"         3.02"      -0.52"          83%  
(STRF1)        
  

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Stephen Sponsler           vortex2@brevard.net
High Speed Dirt Blog:     http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/
Sponsler Channel            http://www.youtube.com/sponsler#g/u
Flickr Photos                  http://www.flickr.com/photos/vortex2/sets/72157614918021044/
Cape Canaveral, FL \/
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