Out On a Limb-cast Leaves Options Open this Afternoon

Friday morning at 9AM Shower passing over North Cocoa Beach  

TODAY: Model discrepancy runs rampant from model run to model run and between models in regard to today, and not so coincidentally is not matching up with latest satellite animation trends.


Thus, for the more rain prone (but apparently less likely wetchancecast per latest water-vapor and satellite animation) an upper level with a weak surface reflection well east of Florida and NE of the Bahamas is rolling W-WNW with increased moisture and much larger shower and likely thunder activity with it. Comparatively speaking, small showers on local radars are showing mainly South Central and south that look like mere specks on satellite as we will see below compared what is well off to the east at this time.


 Based on timing via animations, it appears the leading edge of deeper 700 millibar (mb) moisture (near 10,000 feet or so up in the atmosphere) will reach the east coast after 2pm which could mean a much better chance of showers in the zones noted below. On the other hand, should the NAM and not so much the RAP model verify, the moisture will only get so far west before slowing down,   not coming within the bounds of the beaches until at least as late as midnight toward 7AM Sunday. That is a BIG difference . Thus, for a east coast wet-cast, showers could be on the increase by mid-afternoon. On the other-hand, we might be able to hold off until sometime well after dark.


Otherwise, the better chance of showers and thunderstorms will be from Tampa and South within 30 miles of the west coast, with strongest activity downstream of Lake Okeechobee under the largely east to west flow aloft.  The tides and times change though later tonight as the trough aloft and the mid-level winds shift as it impinges toward the state, as does the steering currents.

Two lows, mainly upper to mid levels shown above with a trough in dashed red connecting them. The yellow lines are showing the leading edge of the moisture 'fiends' ahead of them. Timing if nothing were to change in direction of the leading edge of the moisture fields places them at the beaches by mid-afternoon. However, should the more northern low start to lift more toward the NW and open up, it will be delayed significantly. Stronger storms could be in the 'red zone'

SUNDAY: More complications will very likely abound. So far, guidance is painting a wet picture for all of east central working west during the day along with continually veering winds aloft toward the south from the previous easterly direction of today and early this evening. That means transitions over night and tomorrow abound, with ample moisture. Would not be surprised for some 'bust-casts' unless rain chances for Central and South almost anywhere are put in the forecasts tonight concerning the expectant outcomes of this current pattern. 


With much lighter winds by tomorrow though, would not be surprised that some funnel clouds could not form as showers approach the east coast anytime after 7AM to early afternoon in heavier showers which could continue thunder as well. Tomorrow is a big mess really, and rain chances to not appear will necessarily be restricted from any particular areas of the peninsula as winds continue to veer , especially by early evening. East 'Centrallers' could receive rain more than once from early day activity and then again toward or shortly after dark during the pattern shift.


MONDAY/WEDNESDAY: Steering pattern shift as has been noted now for several posts, with activity taking an eastward rather than westward drift during the day. Although steering will be slow it will be nonetheless toward the east with a weak and possibly slightly delayed east coast sea-breeze. By later Wednesday dry air associated with a TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropispheric Trough) and Saharan Air Layer easily discernible in specialized satellite imagery approaches from the east. Problems arise in regard to storm coverage during this time frame since it is too far out in time to determine how extensive and deep the dry air will be as well as where and how it will be located across the state Thursday-Saturday. It does not appear so far that all areas will be excluded from receiving rainfall, but it is simply to discern where the dry air will be exactly. Yes, we can go by what models are showing now but it is too soon to say with a high degree of certainty other than it appears the Southern 1/3 of the state will be most affected during the time frame as it stands today. 

"Salty Dusty SAL"

Another day for Good Rain Chances Central and North

Threatening Storm Clouds Approaching Cape Canaveral
 from the SSE Tuesday Afternoon  

TODAY: Persistence in thinking might be the best rule of thumb today despite most model guidance; however, there is a fly in the ointment if the short term Rapid Refresh (formally Rapid Update Cycle model), is hitting on something correctly. As sup-positioned, early rains occurred "somewhere along the east coast south of Daytona Beach" prior to sunrise in the form of a thunderstorm across North Central Brevard County and a bit to the west as it slid ashore, peaking up as the weak wind fields converged along the land/coast.

This radar image was saved at 5:10AM. During the rains (which are lightly falling still as of 7:35AM) dropped over one inch of rain accompanied by in-cloud (IC) lightning.  This area appears to have formed as a result in part due to a weak low pressure area manifesting in the 2000-5000 ft level above ground (AGL)  which showed up nicely in infrared satellite imagery and an accompanying boundary (shown further below). The area appears per satellite animation and supposedly per model guidance (at least) to be moving toward the WNW-W and will continue to do so only slowly the remainder of the day. The NAM might be hyper-reacting to this low by its implication of a much stronger mid-level low forming along the west coast later today. For now, will rest with the GFS which implies a drift toward the WNW but no change in strength. Another low also resides of similar nature off the west coast a good 120NM offshore.  Much of south Florida appears to be blanketed in mainly lower clouds this morning, and whether those clouds will remain or not with such high precipitable water values in place remains a flat out mystery. Most guidance indicates a slow burn off and thus little to no rain in the region south of the Lake today. However, the other opt out is that the moisture going into those clouds begins to lift and transform directly back into more clouds of the rain and thunder producing variety. For now, will opt out on that scenario since mid level winds over the South are forecast to shift from a more westerly direction solution  ..perhaps resulting in only more clouds. Too hard to say.

Two images depict the approaching storm cluster yesterday. Image 1 is clearly from a more distant perspective

 
Today's First Guess, not likely accurate.

Image shows location of the two low pressure areas, both are a bit 'elevated' and weak so far. Thunder central and North interior.

Running with short term guidance and extrapolated analysis data, it appears a good feed of sufficient moisture and instability is poised toward the region off near West Palm and north to Southern Volusia County. With little change in low to mid level winds, would expect a break in activity until temperatures can reach Convective Temperature which would not be until early into mid- afternoon (in support of thunderstorms). South Florida might end up receiving debris clouds from activity off of the SW coast as light west winds take part in the mid-levels (assuming they do).  


Therefore, for this post and without trying to read too much more into an already problematic situation, have left this area out until very late toward or after dark (yellow) for rainfall. Coverage of storms might very well end up mainly near and west of I-95 in the Central region, but given that sea breezes will be weak cannot count out the barriers 'just in case'.  One or two strong storms could occur near the Brooksville area into Lake County it appears, maybe even Osceola, with that region to the north also  in question. Looks more like a standard late day sea breeze collision set up for that region, but if the mid level circulation strengthens...it would be even sooner (if at all) .


FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Although forecast discussions refer to some drying over the weekend, I'm not changing previous thinking, for rebel's sake. East coast could still see isolated activity (especially Friday from JAX to Boyton) sometime between 11am toward 3pm. Guidance has indicated an 'open disturbance ' or trough to wash ashore accompanied by low level convergence and higher PWAT sometime on Friday, but there is big timing differences with the GFS holding off until mid-afternoon. This will make all the difference in the world for the east coast for sure, but more so the west coast. If it holds off until late, the west coast might not see as much rain tomorrow as expected (which as of this hour at a very good chance threshold). Otherwise, continued mostly to partly cloudy skies all regions.


Saturday and Sunday and even into Monday is a very slow transitional process period with little change in thinking. Early east coast and later West Coast rain/storm chances, except Monday is going to have to be 'let's wait and see'. Transitional periods can be accompanied by a periodic dry spell in the pattern shift as parameters and moisture fields get realigned. Better chances of rain many areas appears to be in the cards on Tuesday.

Green Seas and Dark Skies wash ashore in Cape Canaveral Storm

Early Onset of Showers/Storms Right on Schedule

TODAY: Although not 'exactly' as depicted per models and far from exact for South Florida this morning, increased moisture is making its opening act today to the state. To clarify, South Florida had numerous thunderstorms over land and much more so off shore as can be seen above by the transition of that cluster northward in the past 6 hours. The activity really was not anticipated to such extent based on the forecast discussions I read just two hours before it commenced. Big model 'fail'.  Storms for the Brevard Barriers might be done for the day already,  as steering is toward the NNW and away from the beaches.  Short term model indicates more activity to make head way on to the beaches later today,  but just in case there is a "Plan B", it would be titled "Watch Out Far East Central after 1pm".  And if so, funnel clouds or even a waterspout is possible.   "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises"  (just in case).


BEYOND: Similar timing difficulties will run the gamut for the east coast south of Daytona through Sunday in the hours from sunrise prior to late morning before activity steers toward the interior and eventually west side of the state. Timing close to impossible to forecast due to lack of data forecast points where land observations are close to non-existent for model purposes to the east, with guidance seemingly consisting of largely 'rough guess-timates' as opposed to actuals'.


TRANSITION DAY SOMETIME MONDAY: So far, consistency is pointing toward an over-haul in the wind fields which will gently glide activity toward the NE early next week as opposed to the WNW-W as will be the case by this weekend.  Thus, from Monday or Tuesday on the same sort of scenario could evolve except activity and timing is reverted from west to east rather than from east to west as will be case the remainder of the week. Overall, East Coasters should be on the watch for rain early morning through noon time every day. 

ON this DAY last year (Cape Canaveral, FL)

Pattern Shift Continues - In full Swing Wednesday

Developing Thunderstorm on Monday Southeast of  Orlando along the County Line. Lightning was coming down in the Clear Area (center of image)

TODAY: Not much change in thinking/reasoning from yesterday's post. Today will be a bit of blend from "'what was yesterday' vs.  'what will be tomorrow'" as moisture increases from the SSE direction.


Expect some showers to first form along the SE Section of the state near the coast and to work northward up the East Coast sea-breeze with other showers forming between I-95 and US1 East Central early afternoon along Brevard. Outflows toward the west and NW along with a prevalent, but very light SSE layer flow from the surface to 15,000 ft will work boundaries toward the west coast with activity becoming stronger the further west (and later in the day) that it spreads. Strongest storms could occur in red as noted..but those areas are more  mainly depicted to show how renegade/random and difficult to pin-point rather than exact locations those storms will be. Best chances are that strongest storms will be very late toward the west coast with a stronger interior one possible where outflows from earlier activity meet larger inland lake breezes by total happen-chance with the main issue being timing.

WEDNESDAY: Relative to today, Wednesday is tomorrow where moisture will have increased by over 1/2" in the Precipitable water fields. Greater coverage, with some possibly tweaking the east coast barrier islands anytime from noon on  - working south to north as far as North Brevard. Wide coverage with earlier onset all areas (early-mid afternoon) and dying off by dark as the atmosphere gets worked over. This might be the east coast's best rain chance day (meaning barrier islands and the A1A strip down to West Palm Beach).


THURSDAY-SATURDAY: This three-day epilogue of days appears fairly similar with minor variations each day. Watching for early day activity along the east coast intracoastals transitioning inland and to the west as the days go by. With good coverage  justifying a 50-60% chance of rain (on TV News Channels that are inland, of course). For the coast (East) chances more like 35% for total coastal coverage (at best).


SUNDAY/MONDAY: Transition period toward activity shifting more toward the east side, although moisture in the atmosphere by then might be less available for Tuesday complete pattern shift. Too soon to say for sure.

Downburst of rain might have caused some folks gusty winds for a period nearby yesterday. Moments before this was shot there was no rain falling from this developing thunderstorm, although several lightning strikes did occur BEFORE the rain current became truly visible.

 

Pattern Change Beginning Today -Notable Tuesday

  Humidity Levels To Increase,
Along With Rain Chances Tuesday through Saturday 

TODAY: Although only minor changes at play today, the shift from what I've noticed year after year in the summer of the "two to three day pattern phase" is drawing nigh  to a new phase.  High pressure in the mid-levels across Central is slowly collapsing, at least in weakening of the wind fields and shifting/shrinking of the dry socket across Central.  Across the far South, a weak tropical wave (northern portions of it) accompanied by an upper level low is drifting west into the SE Gulf Today, which will permit deeper moisture to work slowly northward into or toward Ft Pierce to Vero on its back circulation.


 With weak steering once again, late day sea breeze interactions will make that moisture 'apparent" especially mid-afternoon north of Lake Okeechobee toward or west of those areas inland into Osceola County. Little change is noted further north from the past two days, although it is a bit sketchy on exactly where or even how the moisture distribution will be situated for late afternoon thunderstorm activity. That is relative to whether or not storms will exist in toward Western Volusia and up the Suwanee River Valley basin or not. For now we will include that area.


Overall, it appears that from late morning toward early evening the total  area of isolated shower and storm activity will be within these bounds (below).


With a pattern change, albeit subtle, comes question marks , the main one being will we go from isolated coverage of activity to a period of scattered coverage today? Far South to Southwest Florida appears to be the most likely location for said activity. Was tempted to shift the thunder chance a bit more toward the east across Orange and Osceola Counties  (from this noted below), but about the only impacts will be for those in the downtown toward and east of that Orlando zone, since in Osceola County that area is low-low populace that would be affected.

Last night there was one storm in the Orlando area (Dr. Phillips) which produced 3/4' to 1" sized hail, with winds that uprooted some apparently old, root rotted trees.  This location looks again to be a good candidate for a big one today (if not a bit east toward the immediate downtown area), as well as northward toward 'anywhere Lake County' and western Volusia (along I-4).  There could be a brief period of showers along the sea breeze front south or near Brevard along I-95, but it appears moisture will remain too scant for anything more than a shower along that boundary.  


TUESDAY/SATURDAY: The upper level low will move further into the Gulf, with moisture being drawn northward behind it with a light SSE-S surface to upper level flow for slow storm motions continuing. With higher dewpoint air now lurking off to the East of the state just beginning to show up, chances are storm/shower activity on Tuesday will begin earlier to the Southern Part and work north to Central by early afternoon.  Some guidance has been very consistent with a good coverage from South of or right near Melbourne right along or near the east coast, particularly toward Palm Bay / offshore/ and to the west down to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades and all surrounding areas with the lead moisture surge now fully at hand. 


Tuesday seems to be the odd man out though. From that point, would expect we will see cloud lines up along the intracoastals by mid-morning along with showers evolving in those areas along with some showers off shore that could move onshore south of Ft Pierce.  With the sea breezes full blown thunderstorm activity will increase by mid afternoon and work its way slowly toward the West to West North West with heaviest activity after 4:30pm just west of Orlando  toward Route 27 for areas like Clermont and Bok Tower. Route 27 looks to be a good candidate for several afternoons of big storm coverage, with isolated to scattered stronger storms from East of Cedar Key the whole way south to east of Ft. Meyers.  


Other moisture  surges very difficult to impossible to forecast this far out, could impact the immediate east coasters with showers beginning near sunrise from Brevard South. Point is, with greater moisture and earlier onset of activity, temperatures will be held down a bit (most notably inland) during the days, but the relative humidity will be increasing as well.


BEYOND: Hints that yet another pattern (major) change will be at play with activity shifting for a period toward the East Half of the state for the late afternoons come this time next week.  In line with that note and speak of patterns, do suspect each day beginning tomorrow through Friday will have its own little surprise packages in store, including the chance of weak waterspouts near to just offshore the east coast early in the day and/or some funnel clouds along intracoastal cloud lines from Brevard to Miami.

Better Chance of Inland Storm Coverage Today

Granted, it comes down to some guess work. Better chances for
storms appears in the making after 4pm through 8pm Interior Central Florida. One or two could be stronger than' normal',  meaning they will actual Thunder-Storms (TS to TS+)) but should any storm be warned, it might be hard to verify. Most will be TS- .

 TODAY: Mid-upper level trough has pressed off the mid-Atlantic Coast overnight with a surface through the mid-levels low center and trough extending SSW toward South Carolina. As a result, the surface to mid-level troughs have both shifted south over Florida toward the northern side of the "Big Lake Down South".


Although the winds aloft hold little bearing on the overall outcome on where any storms will form and more importantly head toward either way since they are less than 10mph ,   the east coast sea breeze could be delayed about an hour, for warm to hot early afternoon temperature readings toward the beaches.  Otherwise, per latest analysis/forecast via short term guidance, although atmospheric moisture (PWAT or precipitable water) is not any greater than the past two days, it appears the distribution of it is more aligned for cloud and storm bearing type of weather rather than being thinly distributed throughout the boundary layer, or weather bearing birth place for clouds and storms, as was the case yesterday. 


Given though, it is hardly up toward seasonal norms to warrant scattered storms in a general forecast by late afternoon there could be a few at one time over Central toward South Central with little motion other than oblong motion along boundary propagation as a result of lake breezes and the sea breezes from each coast.


South Florida has an issue. High clouds are swiping over head from Central earlier today and might offset in part convective initiation in this region until a bit later than model guidance portrays. Likewise toward the north, another factor could offset true storm formation, especially west of Ormond beach or perhaps even Daytona until near or after dark, likely due to some subsidence in the wake of early day convection over the Panhandle Region (outflows).


 All in all, today appears to be getting off to a slower start than yesterday over South Florida, and chances are that during peak heating ..moisture distribution will be thrown out of whack (for the most part) during uncapped evaporation phase for much in the thunder zone except toward Lake Okeechobee region, with the majority of storm formation abiding until post - 4:30pm - haste.  Given the latter time of day, with sea breezes having thus by then formed, true storms might be a bit hard to come by, but they will appear nonetheless. Candidate areas appear to be again Lake County toward Seminole, parts of Polk and Osceola and a bit westward from those locales. Showers might be able to form along the east coast sea breeze as well toward I-95/US-1 but very isolated at best by mid-afternoon. More than likely, after early showerage (if any) there will be a lull until the appointed time.


WEEKEND: Most activity over the weekend appears will be along I-4 toward North of I-4,. This puts Ocala toward Gainesville in the mix and south toward north Orange and west Volusia. A dry slot appears to be in the making for dead Central with a much weakened  pseudo-tropical wave putting a dab of paint on the far south for a part of the weekend, meaning chances of showers and thunder (especially SW Florida).


East coast beach goers should have no problems getting sunburned, and hopefully not forecast burned, moon burned, or for the altogether adversarial of sun and moon burn, TV burned.  Can always watch The Weather Channel.

Storm Chances Invariably Variable Through Saturday

The Images Above Wraps Up Today...Typical Summer Like Day in Store!

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Summer time conundrums prevail as a hail of invariably variable variables reigns.


Model guidance is hither and yon on exactly where the best chances will be today for storms, but when push comes to shove, it won't really matter any hoot if trying to pin point down to specifics. There is ample moisture and close to nil steering currents (and it gets more so later in the week). In short, storms will move little and manifest along sea-lake breezes and eventually boundaries created by they themselves. 


Best chance of a genuine storm may at first be toward FAR South Florida , the Panhandle, and  toward the NE-SE shores of Lake Okeechobee. There could be a brief lull in activity before leap frogging toward 5:30 - 6:00pm when some stronger activity might reside from near Altamonte Springs, North Orlando side southward into Osceola County. Models really are all over the place with the rain/precipitation field parameters in their graphical depictions, but the NAM of all things seems to have picked up on the dry slot in the mid levels running across a portion of South Central north of Lake Okeechobee, at least for the interim.  The strongest of storms could end up where any boundaries meet along the edge  of that temporary dry area. It is there visibly by observation of the latest visible satellite imagery. The RUC/RR picked up this as well, but shows the highest coverage of thunder in the same area per the K-Index measurement tool, which looks suspect. The HRRR buys into it too as well. In another light though, almost no one lives in the areas shown to have the highest coverage in the area across far South Central over the interior. 


In summation, expecting peak hours to begin around 5:30  and last through 8:39pm (Precisely) Dead Central possibly as far east as I-95 in Volusia and North Brevard. Other areas further east could see some light rainfall as outflows work east  along the retreating sea breeze decay after 9pm.  Diminishing activity toward mid evening.


The remainder of the weak is   pretty much the same game.  Latest guidance indicates   the low-mid level ridge axis' now across South Central toward the Lake might both decay to the point that steering winds become irreconcilably close to completely irrelevant, as if lack of steering currents for storm motion wasn't weak enough already. Wind barbs being reduced to mere featherless barbs of random nothingness. So, like an arrow with feathers, so is the storm location going to be, directionless.


By Late weekend, we might be in for a pattern shift removing slowly the rain chances for specifically the East side of the state except toward West Palm and South; however, as one might and should expect, those prospects go away only to return with every other model run. Looks like summer. 

DOH

Surprise Surprise, Thunder Chance Arise!

As Noted, slightly to much better chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially Southern 1/3 of state

TODAY: Much contested return , if not first days  , of true summer like weather cannot go unchallenged per Florida climatology. With Debby well away, and a series of impulses which have resulted in widespread severe weather reports across states to the north the past 2-3 day eroding the mid-level pocket of high pressure, the air mass cannot help but slowly modify toward seasonal norms in regard to ample atmospheric moisture substantial enough for thunderstorm generation. Yes,a bit slowly, but nonetheless it is occurring today.


Large clusters of thunder to the north sent a mammoth tidal wave of outflow across the north with subsidence in its wake. As the waters are settled there a remnant slosh affect aloft may have left a pool of moisture toward Ocala and surrounding jungles of interior North to North Central. This appears will slide south to SSW today as noted in the Orange area.


Further South , moisture convergence from Lake and Ocean breeze boundaries could well result in some later afternoon through evening showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates some good coverage and a few high end poppers, although latest official NWS forecasts do not reflect that to be the case at all. However, given that undoubtedly there are some 'invisible ripples' aloft tootling around up there, it may not hurt for folks in those areas to keep an eye to the sky as they could act as triggers. Much of the activity if it manifests would be over un-low populated areas except toward Western Portions of the SE Metropolii.


Further north of the Lake, would not pass up the chance for some showers or thunder to erupt toward dinner time to sunset (or a bit sooner) as moisture converges along the sea and Lake Boundaries. There is a slice of dry air in the mid levels today bi-secting the state, and given the overall synoptic scale set up this would more than likely act as a prohibitive factor for anything to develop there, at least that is how it appears so far. From the looks of it  from here, it does not appear anything could possibly form within 1000 miles , but that is not the case as satellite and radar are manifesting activity arising near the Ocala Safari Jungles. 


Point is when push comes to shove, most if anyone of the readers (if there is any) who see this will not see rain today but will be able to potentially see it in the distance if they know what to look for, even as close as Brevard County.  Given model outputs last hour, the southern 1/3 could actually be in for a good smattering which is totally contradictory to forecast discussions I am reading. Never sell remnant outflows combined with moisture convergence short in the summer in the first week of July across Florida.


BEYOND: Increasingly better chances of thunder with each day, although Tuesday or Wednesday might be yet another transitional day before Thursday -  Saturday when at which point it could end up being a daily struggle with pin-pointing just where and when the storms (or strongest/best storms) will exist. The trend has been to favor the east side, and not so coincidentally, matching up with GFS runs from over a week ago, lest we forget. The immediate coast north of West Palm might even get in on the act.

Quite Warm, Chance of Thunderstorms By Mid-Late Week

In Reference to the 'normal' summer wet season

THIS WEEK: Short post today. Very warm and stuffy out under high pressure aloft. A bit on the dry side, which is in reference to the above image. highs in the low-mid 90Fs wide spread, with the lower humidity (although gradually increasing)..making heat indexes less than 'impossible' relatively speaking.


Weather from yesterday through Tuesday to be a bit unlike summer, and more like an intermittent prelude to the onset of the wet season, more like mid-May to late-May-ish.  The other morning, Vero recorded a record low of 68F, whereas in Canaveral the porch read 67F, identical to that of the likes of a temperature which heralds the end of summer only by personal observation for this area, rather than the onset of the wet season.  Given the strange circumstances and length of time that Debby was in the area, some major realignments are in order now. These will be in progress through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with the best chance of an inland shower or two due to sea breeze convergence, and a thunderstorm of two along the Florida SW Coast.


High pressure in the mid-levels will begin to erode due to an onslaught of troughs running across the Ohio Valley region, eventually to the point that a new mid-level ridge axis will form across South Florida if not further south. The result will be light SW flow aloft accompanied by a 'hard to determine at this point' east coast sea breeze. The first more pronounced day for thunderstorms along I-4 and into the South will be July 4th, more so the following two days.


Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will be sinking south toward the north end of the state across the Deep South accompanied by its moisture convergence boundary, simultaneously, moisture from the tropics will finally work its was east toward the state. Exactly which feed of moisture will arrive first to North Central is difficult to say at this point due to the time in the future yet still. Either way, after Friday with possible storms mainly along the Central Dividing Line and south, possibly along I-4 toward Daytona...all things change as to where the better rain chances will be. Overnight GFS shows a combination of both worlds, or at least a hint of such, heralding a return to normalcy, give or take the direction storm motions will be makes all the difference in the world in regard to who is affected and who is not.


In short, Debby Stole our wet season, although most definitely, some would beg to differ...those flooded out. However, that was not 'wet season' rains.. climatology speaking in it's purest form.

Debby Should Be "Doing It" Today thru Wednesday

Latest Mesoscale Analysis at 300mb (jet stream) Shows upper low in western Gulf
Continues. It seems likely it was this feature that got the ECMWF model off target
from the onset as relayed several posts ago . Possible future track of Debby (center not important)

TODAY: Debby is appearing quite stationary per first glimpses of visible satellite imagery. It is interesting that short term model indicates the center will come nearly ashore by noontime, only to relocate back offshore once again near to just south of Cedar Key, Florida. Either way, seems not to make much of a difference where the Center is located in regard to surface winds, since the strongest winds appear to be driven by the mid-level low pressure feature down to 2000 ft above ground.  The strongest winds this hour are not near the storm but rather toward the Keys and along SW Florida coastal areas and East Central Coastal areas. Rain showers are on the way right now as I type, which could contain wind gusts in the 40-55mph range. This will be the case most the day off and on as vort lobes rotate through, but more on this below. However infrequent that might be.

Latest radar likely well outdated by the time this post even comes out. Yellow lines
show 'most likelihood' for activity through at least mid-afternoon outside of the rains toward NE Florida related in another fashion to the storm. The only rain band that is most linked directly to Debby appears is along the West Coast north of Tampa

 TODAY: Rain-bands and showers on the move early on today. With quick motion and some/few cloud breaks and considering Debby has been behaving in a diurnal fashion for a few days now, expect there could be more moving in and 'popping in and out' rather quickly in increasing fashion after 10AM through mid-afternoon.  Wind profiles do not really support tornadoes today, not to say it is not impossible. Also must keep in mind that any variation in the configuration of the surface to mid-level features could change everything. So , it is 'possible' a tornado watch will be required by mid-late morning through early afternoon, but the primary concern would be strong wind gusts and straight-line winds due to the stronger winds just above the deck through the mid-levels being dragged to the surface in and near the rain storms. This sort of activity may or may not be handled on a case-by-case basis by the National Weather Service Offices as needed.


DEBBY: Models are coming into closer agreement with the future track of the storm. Bear in mind, as Debby moves into the coast much of the surface circulation up toward 2000 ft could start to weaken and become more broad, closely matching that of the mid-levels. In doing so, the stronger winds will NOT be near the center but south of it. Thus, the winds could continue, possibly more gusty tomorrow from Southern Volusia County toward Indian River through St. Lucie Counties.  The storm's timing is fairly close between guidance, with an exit off the east coast toward Wednesday evening. Debbie will be dragging a low level trough along its SW Flank, and this along with complex variables closer to the center will be the prime areas of interest for additional rainfall.  The GFS has been very good with this storm all along, as was favored in these posts when reading between the lines. It seems the ECMWF was picking up on the upper level low noted in that top image as had been noted. But, never can tell for sure. In any case, the two models are now in agreement with bringing the 850mb low center in toward Brooksville and exiting off the east coast somewhere between Ormond Beach and Oak Hill. A surface circulation will be in there as well which could exist within those bounds.

Graphic devised at 6AM, Tuesday, June 26th  See details below. It's not as complicated as it might first appear

DESCRIPTION OF GRAPHIC: Red lines show potential future track. This is inline with the GFS plots from several days ago. (see image further down)


RED LINES: Possible future track of surface to mid-level center
PURPLE: Chance of most concentrated activity today outside of the rains further north caused by indirectly related synoptic scale features. This zone 'might' require a tornado watch.
YELLOW: Bounds for best chances of quick moving squally like periods. Note, there could be very long breaks between periods of rain today, and some areas will receive very little rain if any.
GREEN: Further South, there remains a chance of similar activity today, but believe the chance of spin ups will be much less due to winds being more unidirectional with height further from the surface to mid-level circulations


**NOTE: As always, monitor TV or weather radio or other media outlooks from time to time, especially before heading out somewhere today to remain abreast of short-term conditions..and be alert for potential watches and warnings which could be forthcoming. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather related activity due to winds and a 2% Tornado risk, which is quite small. Not to say though, that it only takes 1 in the wrong place (such as one's house) to make all the difference. I see on radar right now a heavier cell which appears to be heading this way, and even that is not being warned for. Not really expecting much lightning today. BUT, any storm which is producing thunder, even if not frequent, will need to be taken with a serious conviction. It will take the taller storms today to really get rotation going outside of other factors to complex to go into detail over in a blog post.

THIS IMAGE IS FROM JUNE 22nd. Note the lavender arrows and question mark concerning possible future course. At this time , the forecast had been (officially) looking toward Texas

 Now, as of this hour, we see the new Official Forecast Track and zone of uncertainty.

Latest outlook will likely narrow down, this is close to what as a mere blog poster 'seems reasonable', although we could probably take off a good 75 miles at least from the north side of the cone and 30 miles from the south side of the cone.

WEDNESDAY: So far the heaviest rains with Debby could occur from Brevard through Indian River Counties on this day, under the one prerequisite. One teeny tiny factor..that being, that indeed Debby actually takes the forecast track. The GFS took a big jump overnight in moving the storm out when the previous run had Debby loitering around for several more days, but other models agree on the new timing issue. 


That is the best we can do at this point. Should Debby not get hinged up closely enough with the trough to the north, it's an entirely different ball game. Note also the graphic above. It is possible Debbie might work a little south today into tonight, if not while crossing the state somewhere along the line. But as noted, the center really is not the most important factor. The southern edge of the cone is possible where the strongest winds will occur on Wednesday, after-all, and maybe so even the rains to fall will be greater as well with time going through tonight into the earlier periods of the day (where they would be further north) , due to the trough hanging back behind the storm.


BEYOND: So far, it is looking quite dry. The official forecast is calling for thunderstorms each day toward the weekend, but I'm not seeing it yet. There will be sinking motions behind the storm, so it will take a good two days for things to get realigned. Warm toward the east coast with highs in the low-mid 90Fs are possible by Friday (if Debby moves out as currently surmised);   high pressure in the mid-levels could lag and suppress rainfall altogether except toward South Florida until the weekend. Even so, any activity appears will be restricted to late day interior sea breeze collisions with little steering.

Debby's Destiny - Tornado Threat All Day Possible, Future Track New Story

Debby At a Stand Still. Details of graphic below.

TORNADO REPORTS

TODAY: No point really in awaiting for a newer model run to come in at this point given the current circumstances that seem 'could' unfold. In the next day or two.  Florida has been experiencing a tornado outbreak of sorts. One was reported locally near Port St. John just before midnight from a storm that originated down in Okeechobee county hours before. These (some of them ) storms are long-tracking, but the tornadoes not so much so.  Numerous videos and images, mostly from video, are now available on YouTube, but cannot post them here for anonymity sank of those who captured the footage. But videos can be searched   (YouTube) by searching there on "Florida tornado 2012 June Debby". Since Debby's Future Track continues to remain uncertain:

1140 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW PORT SAINT JOHN   28.51N 80.87W   
06/24/2012                   BREVARD            FL   PUBLIC            
  
            PUBLIC SIGHTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST   
            OF I-95 AND SR50.

And, per NHC (The Hurricane Center)

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

Do note the mention above of a Col-Region. This was referred to on Friday as "No Man's Land" in that post. And so it is, this was per the GFS model, which again though was and can always remain in question. Today's post is for worst case scenario instead of beating around the bush. Just to be sure we are on  uncertain terms, but on no uncertain terms should we bury heads in the sand either.


As can be seen, the hurricane centers watched area in the top image is the area in blue. It would behoove us not to watch for Debby to take a loop and drop a bit to the south if it does not move onshore in the coming day or two. As a precautionary measure, there is a tornado watch in affect.

CURRENT WATCH  AREA, COULD BE EXTENDED

Per latest guidance in the short term which is consistent with several past model runs of the GFS, today could prove to be another tornado day until well past dark, so the time of this watch may very well be extended. Especially in those areas noted in that top image with those colored lines of red and purple. Wind fields with heating of the day, albeit a bit meager, could be 'exaggerated' due to diurnal heating, exaggerated that is beyond what guidance is showing. Hence, waste not want not... out comes this post.


Note also a potential 'other track' Debby Could Take as shown by the yellow bounds crayoned in. Not a forecast, only a consideration of the GFS model. It has been showing something between going from near or just north of I-4 to along Dead Central several times now in the past 3 days over 12 model runs, so very hard to ignore. And who knows, it could drop even further south than that. The point is, if the current model run that is shown verifies, the Tornado Threat alone will get greater, and not less. On the other-hand, if the storm lifts more quickly off to the ENE-NE, the threat decreases. OR..if it moves more toward the NW..there is zero concern for much of the state. 


Any strengthening though looks minimal to non-existent, so the center of the circulation at this time should not be the primary focus . Winds at Canaveral to Patrick last night were the strongest over land in the state, and see how far that location is from the storm. What 'could be' the addition to the storm's effects would be pressure gradient winds combined with winds aloft creating for looping hodographs more than what is already there (rotating storms). The GFS has been maining a 'totally crazy' precipitation bulls eye, six inches of rain up to 10 inches over a 6 hour period two runs in a row now (and not the first times either) for somewhere near I-4 toward The Central Diving Line.   Perhaps, the crossing could be as late as Wednesday. It seems to be trending that the longer it waits, the more it will drop south, and the more bizarre the impacts become. On the other hand, should Debby just lift north and be over with....that changes everything.

"Little Debbie" Dishing Out the Not So Sweets - Swiss Roll?

Latest noon , Sunday water vapor image. Text below to highlight
things to watch for

Today, last post was on Friday and so far, per the GFS guidance (which has NOT been favored), the weather that is evolving is occurring quite close to that guidance on Friday. It was mentioned there could be some tornadoes/rotating storms at that time, and as of this time three tornado warnings are in affect which will we see further down. There has been tremendious disparity in guidance in regard to what Debbie will do in the next 3 days, if you've seen the coverage on TV it is no secredt. Latest Hurricane Center discussion has this to say:

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING. DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3 KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.


In regard to the image aobve, what is noted is the lead edge of an upper level speed max dropping wouth form the SW Great Lakes region. This could help draw Debbie further north into tomorrow but from there it might again slow down. We can see to the west an upper level low, this again is not mystery as it was visible the other day on that post. It is slowly dropping south. Note all of the dry air behind that entity aloft. The image is showing mostly mid and upper level atmospheres, except where the "L" is drawn in to emphasize our Little Darling Debbie. The Hurricane Center has drastically shifted its projections more from toward Texas toward the Northern Gulf Coast. If Debbie hangs out much longer into tomorrow the course might be shifted yet more toward the Florida Big Bend. For purposes o.f the post, the red lines are to provide ONLY an alternate possibility for a cone of erred acceptance.  I have not looked much if at all at other guidance since early yesterday , rather going by vapor loop animations and GFS trends. Do note, the ECMWF (model) has been the favored solution all along by most interested in these systems (again, for probing into another point of view). This post is mainly to point out the level of uncertainty, and the way if we read between the lines where I'm inclined to head, at least through Monday. As the new GFS is now coming up, it appears Debbie may already by on land by Monday night..

KEEP in Mind though, if the GFS course transpires, do not focus on the cetner. Per the model, the strongest winds would be across Central and South Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee and not around the Center. On the other hand, should Debbie not follow toward the NE-ENE there could still remain an isolated severe weather threat tomorrow and Tuesday from mid-morning hours through nightfall, and maybe even overnight should the storm progress closer toward the Florida West Coast.

TODAY: As noted, several tornado warnings have been issued toward the west coast and south Florida. An 850mb (mid level) increase in winds is forecast by most guidance by mid-late afternoon across Central and South Florida, so it would at least be to advantage to bear this mind. Should those wind fields make the plunge, the tornado threat could suddenly increase in this area with no warning what so ever. Granted, any activity would be very isolated, and the weather outside of any such storm cell will remain rather benign as the move in from the murky overcast.

MONDAY; Much of course depends on whether Debbie dishes out more Swiss Rolls  and Cinnamon Swirls, or peanut butter planks. If we go with the Planks, the sever weather threat abates. However, as of current guidance and trends, the motion of Debbie should not be all so great to make that much of a difference, and it will all come down to timing of when a vorticity lobe rotates across the peninsula accompanied by increased mid level winds.

 

This is from this morning earlier, but there has been no change, as can be seen by the annotations made at that time. BUT do note, the Hurricane Center OFFICIAL forecast enveloped area is MUCH further toward the NW into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast. Louisiana was the course of action of the ECMWF early this morning, as opposed to Texas just the day before. At this time, it does not look like Debbie will ever be a hurricane, or if so..only briefly. Then again..... 

And now having seen the Hurricane Center's last discussion, we see this:

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.

Possibility of Torrential Downpours Going into Sunday

Some showers possible near the coast today, mainly south of DAB and brief.
Better chances well west of I-95 , with best coverage between 3-7pm. Thunder possible

TODAY: Not a whole lot different than yesterday for the most part, as large area of low pressure continues in the far Southern Gulf extending toward the Central Gulf as can be seen by clouds in the image above in the Gulf. The disturbed area extends well to the south in toward the Yucatan and waters to its east in the Western Caribbean. This is noted in the water vapor image further down.  Meanwhile, other than some showers and some thunder, little other to occur over Florida today


SATURDAY: The large area of low pressure is expected to at least lift north and gather together a bit better. So far so good, but that is also about as far as guidance gets in agreement.  The GFS had strayed off from previous mathematical solution for one run, then got back right on track with previous runs. The  EURO favors 'something' heading toward Texas, although not sure it is not picking up on an upper level low forecast to move right into that area in the next 48 hours as can be seen of water vapor loops (barely). It is still up for grabs though. Not shown here since if that is the case it means way more time in the distant future and no concern for Florida. 


In any case, chance of showers east central early on, but most rain appears will be South Florida and near the east coast as far north as DAB. As noted , by this time tomorrow guidance starts to already diverge, so much of what the weather does by tomorrow morning will already be contingent upon what occurs in the Gulf, we might have to expect the unexpected (for better or for worse)  until tomorrow when details can be ironed out assuming they even can be)... As seen below:

WATER VAPOR LOOP LATEST (Explanation below, see annotations)

This image is the latest prior to the post of water vapor in the atmosphere primarily in the upper portions and into the mid levels of the atmosphere. We see some features as noted:
1. High pressure to the west. This has been forecast to continue to build in toward the east and flatten southward with time over the weekend
2. What is not shown is weak low circulation in SW Texas. That is also forecast to shift east then drop south toward the location of the orange question mark. This is important for future forecast if it holds true to form because;
3. East of Florida is an upper level low with a ridge to its west off the Florida Coast. Both are forecast to shift east beginning tonight. In doing so, the large area of low pressure easily visible but WEST of the deep convection of storms near the bottom center of the image will lift north under a dome of high pressure aloft, and to its east.
4. Meanwhile, in yellow, a mid level trough could form on the Lee side of the Appalachians accompanied by upper level support. This is expected to build south into the NE Gulf and merge with the now possible depression or storm by late Saturday or Early Sunday, if not sooner. Point is that at this point it makes no difference if a tropical entity is tagged, although they are watching it at the Hurricane Center.

Honesty though, the entire scenario spelled out by the GFS looks suspect. If a good named storm forms, all bets are off and the rules do not apply.

 More clearly, this is the forecast for tomorrow morning, showing UPPER LEVEL high pressure, the low east of Florida moving away. High Pressure near Cuba and low in west Gulf should lift low level surface features northward into the Eastern Gulf. From there, we see the purple arrows and question marks. The low will be in as labelled "No Man's Land" with little steering, and it is at this point the models AGAIN diverge. GFS has been quite consistent on heavy rains mainly from Central to the GA border area, mostly   somewhere between I-4 toward I-10,however, the area of Dead Central is another matter altogether as included further down. Again, based on the GFS (which quite possible is wrong in a number of areas up until this point already).


LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY: GFS has also been consistent with wind fields over Central and South Florida to become favorable for tornadic like activity (IF) the low performs as GFS indicates regardless of weather it is designated a tropical system or not. Actually, if it is, those chances decrease. The entire configuration is quite flaky until heading into over night Saturday time frame, and even then it is the temperatures aloft that seem to be the main driver for designation. Wind fields are way broad , with some of the strongest depth of winds across the peninsula partly due to pressure gradient from high pressure building from the east in the SW Atlantic. Chances are though, it would be named regardless. Point is, even if it is not named conditions could get quite windy over the Peninsula on Sunday and Monday, but most of the rain remains to the north. Those reason alone make it look more sub-tropical than tropical, quickly becoming extra-tropical. as the system is absorbed by a trough digging south as is also shown above.


The NOGAPS model might get the last laugh though, it says, "No can do"..leaving the low in the Gulf to drift off to the SSW-SW-WSW while two other lows form well off the Florida East coast . That would spell major 'Forecast BUST" for all parties concerned, and not much in the way of weather to write your congressman about. For now, 'worst case' scenario is the GFS, and so far it does not look all 'that' bad except for some big rainfall totals, and those wind fields across Central and South as noted above.


If ALL models are wrong, we could have a storm or hurricane sitting in the Gulf not going anywhere for a couple of days.