'Looks Like Rain Today' - Chance of Localized Flooding

"Hmmm... Looks Like Rain Today"

TODAY: Very similar scenario in place from yesterday ; however, this morning there is nostrong activity off the west coast that was in place yesterday, hence no aid from outflow boundaries as an additive source for initiation and perhaps stronger storms at least in the first parts of the day.

Temperatures aloft are almost exactly the same though, and moisture availability is in abundant supply with sunny skies. 

The KSC Sounding showed a convective temperature of 89F which is reachable by shortly after 'noon time zone' -- with very light westerlies in the steering column.

The winds however, just off the surface might be a tad stronger than yesterday which would mean the east coast sea breeze would make less inland progress today and/or would be extremely shallow in vertical depth. 

There is a bit of an inverted trough at 10,000 feet (roughly 700mb) aloft running just north of I-4 from north Tampa Bay toward Ormond Beach and suspect this will be at least primarily the initial location for the better heavy rainfall total threat. This same region had big totals yesterday so flood statements or advisories might be warranted in that area at some point in time.

The boundary did drift a bit south though and expect it to begin to lose identity per the GFS as it drifts toward Central by Sunday afternoon.  

Overall, sea breeze collisions with heavy overloading could result in a few stronger gusts that is if the atmosphere is not worked over in most locations before the collision can occur.  Stronger storms from wind  will be as it appears now well in the exception rather than the norm especially later in the day when cloud cover takes over as is assumed will be the case. 

 Some areas will not see rain today  though. The NAM model came in surprisingly scant all things considered in the rain coverage department today..so...what if it verifies? I guess we'll find out by tonight.

SUNDAY: Overall scenario continues with the better rain chances shifting a bit more south to Central Direct, otherwise everything else appears to be running status-quo.

BEYOND: Same general scenario at large until maybe later in the week when temps aloft might warm some and as a result less activity despite the ample moisture. This is very iffy though so wouldn't make any wagers just yet .  Otherwise, outside of the period when rain chances could decrease, there isn't any big curve balls being shown on the horizon for about 10 days at which point we're are beyond model reliability .

Slow Moving Storms, Locally Heavy Rain Possible

TODAY: Subtle change from past few days might be in the works. The wild card is the storms currently active along the west coast (see below image). How those storms will affect conditions later in the day is the wild card, if in fact they will at all as far as North half of the state is concerned.

THE PREMISE: On the premise these storms will eventually result in outflow and an enhanced West Coast sea breeze effect, the end result could be stronger storms mainly into the interior portions of the state or more toward the east coast as noted also below down the Suwanee River Basin region.

NOW: Current KSC sounding shows continued stronger westerlies at what might be above the depth of a sea breeze depths yet below the better storm steering currents. If this sounding is representative of most of the south half of the state, storm steering will be quite slow today. Additionally, given the aforementioned, sea breezes might well be able to form today as opposed to previous days, but exactly how far inland is another matter (namely the east coast sea breeze). 

If the east coast sea breeze remains closer to I-95 if in fact not closer toward US1  especially south of the I-4 toward Volusia county, the area in red would need to be shifted a bit more to the east. Temperatures aloft are not that cold today with 500mb coming in at around -6C and 700mb at around 10C. That is opposed to those days when they might be running closer to -9C/6C respectively.

Those temperatures are not conducive to strong downdraft winds and indeed the down draft CAPE and Down Bust potential indexes are low to non-existent per the MAP (Mesoscale Analysis Page); however, there is a lot of moisture to play with, and as a result down burst winds from water overloading could always occur near the later stages of any storm along boundary intersects. 

July 14th 2014 - Vierra From off I95 Storm

Outside of sea breeze effects (if possible) there might be quite a bit of showers minus thunder as was the case yesterday, or very limited thunder. However, it is Florida and things could change going into mid afternoon.

Outside of those more apparently obvious circumstances listed, storm outflows would alter the landscape and at that point almost anything goes, even closer to the beaches namely north of West Palm.

Elsewhere, sea breeze convergence over what appears mostly would be over the Everglades region seems the better play for the day, though showers or even thunder could form during and along the sea-breeze journey from either coast into the interior portions.

BEYOND: Similar conditions might be at play tomorrow;however, what will occur early morning tomorrow toward the west coast will have a big effect for later in the day elsewhere (there is a domino effect); otherwise, ample moisture continues with showers and thunder possible though just exactly how wide spread or at all strong is another matter entirely.

Even further out in time, steering toward the east coast will remain about steady state it appears, though the ridge axis over the Florida Straits will lift to the Okeechobee region in coming days which will affect mostly South and South Central in that the immediate coasts might be devoid of rains other than earlier in the day.

GFS implies warming mid-level temperatures further up stream which would greatly reduce storm strength and coverage despite ample moisture, but that's another BIG IF so persistence would seem to be the best bet for contiuned normal storm strength coverage until that time comes, if ever.

Atypical Rain/Storm Day in Progress ~ Gusty Winds Possible Later Today Near Some Activity

Storm Moving Out to Sea -  Canopy shown in bottom left was 'destroyed' by a later storm from the west

TODAY: Atypical situation at hand not surprisingly either. 

Tandem MCCs rotated around High Pressure over Texas yesterday across Illinois, Missouri into Tennessee and the Carolina's and were heading south to southeast late yesterday. 

The resultant storm 'debris' is noted over Florida at time of sunrise and accompanying large OFB (outflow boundary) has already generated showers and thunder over North Florida which began before sunrise just off the NW Florida Coast. 

This area will slowly work south but guidance might be having a hard time discerning just exactly how far south it will get versus falling apart. 

Regardless, said activity more than likely will result in additional small OFBs (outflow boundaries) that will process their way south and eastward in the west to east mid level synoptic scale flow flow.

Meanwhile, south of I-4 and more so along and south of the Beach Line route to Sarasota as the crow flies....afternoon heating with some clearing skies is already starting and will provide the impetus for a bit of a mix of circumstance especially north of West Palm Beach - resulting in a blend of the old OFB from the north with the more typical daytime heating/storm regime.

Upper level temperatures are a bit warmer than  'strong storm' days, but not so warm that some wet micro-burst winds could not occur as shown on the Meso-scale Analysis page given the amount of already available PWAT air (Precipitable Water values), courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman , Oklahoma;  however, the 'potential' is on the very low end of the scale. 

Given current conditions, wind gusts in the 45mph to 56mph range could occur later today, but only in a very isolated fashion with more of the 25-38 mph puffs being the norm near stronger activity , especially after 2pm *which might be ore toward Eastern South Central. 

Rains could persist into late afternoon especially South Central Florida where cloudier skies would persist elsewhere.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: More typical type activities though pointing toward particular regions in pockets of deepest moisture, but just exactly where those might be is a tough call. Guidance implies a remnant frontal
boundary to move off the east coast will leave sort of a 'ghost trough' near Central Florida which might act as a focus for more concentrated activities for two days namely Friday and Saturday.

Potential for some Isolated Showers to Strong Storms Appears to Exist Today

TODAY; Brief post today as subtle changes continue in the works. High pressure in mid to upper levels continues a slow retrograding retreat toward the West and will about complete this phase today before being eroded on it's eastern flank (over Florida) tomorrow and in the days to follow. As noted previously, the amount of moisture through the column will need to be sufficient through a deep enough lower for instability to overcome any particular 'dry slots' in the mid levels (combined with lower level moisture/wind  convergence along lake/sea/outflow boundaries.

The dry slots are conducive for strong storms with downdraft winds being quite gusty to very strong, but with insufficient instability and proper convergence dynamics at play little more than clouds would be able to manifest.

The morning KSC sounding as a sample test bed came in more moist with stronger west to east wind at the lowest levels than the forecast RAP model sounding portrayed. The forecast RAP model then goes on to show mainly only showers over the state today except interior South Florida where strong storms appear most likely. The NAM (North American Model) tea leaves read the same and includes a spot up toward Flagler County in general late today to work south into Volusia county well after dark. Elsewhere, guidance in general was agreeing on mainly showers other locations. 

Persistence from the past days would have to agree with this scenario; however, the morning KSC sounding was not what guidance portrayed which makes for a problem. Will that sounding be representative of a larger of enough area for storm/shower develop or was it more localized in nature at just that specific point in time?  High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) magic eight ball shakes each hour are showing Low Coverage today and nothing even close to strong storms if even thunderstorms at all but mainly over the Everglades region. Question flags hoisted to full mast.

The proof of the pudding is in the sampling which the sounding did taste but that still does not answer the underlying inquiry concerning the other 99.99 percent of the state. Was not able to gain access to sounding data on line from other locations, but the other NWS offices are all hitting on strong storms today (state wide). 

This post therefore takes all of these factors into consideration but is playing it on the conservative side. Conditions were over-forecast yesterday as it was ; therefore, this post and pseudo-forecast (as usual) is only a representation of areas that could potentially receive a  shower, thunder. or strong storm but does not represent a high likelihood of any one location experiencing any of them. If other soundings are 'like' the KSC one, that chance would be increased (however).

The entire Florida east coast is in a slight drought condition though hardly 'drought' would qualify to describe it just yet, other than parts of far Southeast Florida

BEYOND: The same scenario plays out most of the week as models continue to show mainly isolated shower and storms over the state. By late week toward Friday into most of the following week there is a big shift though with a return to greater rain/storm coverage as the ridge to the west de-amplifies and no longer has such an inhibitive influence in the upper levels over Florida which is on the descendant side of its clockwise circulation. As it stands now, many parts of the state could see needed rainfall late week into early next week with a return to much more typical July like thunderstorm activities, which means ironically the longer range forecast as it appears now is a simpler forecast in regard to rainfall coverage  than the short range dilemma.

The July of Dry To Become More Stormy Into Next Week

Birds Appear to Split the Scene as Thunder Roars at Lone Cabbage Fish Camp Several Days Ago

TODAY: Gradually emerging and anticipated (for several days now) pattern shift in progress, though the more deliberate change is slow to manifest it will be likely noted today over parts of the state. High pressure that has been stretched from the Atlantic across North Florida accompanied with drier than normal air  to be pinched off at the mid-level across the state will gradually retrograde in part toward North Central to NW Texas in the next few days as some upper level 'trough-iness' gradually works down the Eastern Sea board. This appears to be a bottom up - top down process that will take some time and guidance is very sketchy as a result on where the best depth of atmospheric moisture will reside each day. 

For today, some strong to near or pulse severe storms are possible as noted in the graphic.

SUNDAY: Area of possible storms also of pulse strong to 'near severe ' are possible over an expanse further south and east with a delayed east coast sea breeze. Steering aloft will be from the north but will be interrupted and distorted by the outflow boundaries and spotty moisture both from a remnant cold front which emerged off the east coast days ago and some moisture working in from the far south. The NAM model has been insistent on larger coverage than the GFS which is a reversal from what is usually the case so question flags arise immediately on to what exactly is going on.

For now it looks like most of the beaches will remain dry though storms might be visible to the west from the coast and some cooling outflow might reach the beaches as well prior to night fall. Best chances of rains will be along to west of I-95 into Seminole, Volusia, Orange, and Osceola Counties and into North Florida and perhaps extending down into North parts of Okeechobee county and west though closer to the coast to just offshore north of Daytona Beach is possible.

NEXT WEEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Off shore morning winds (from the westerly direction) will have worked up to the mid levels delaying sea breezes as mornings warm. Temperatures aloft will be a bit warmer more than likely but pulse strong possible somewhere along the eastern half of the state late in the day or even into mid-evening are possible but wide-spread convection does not at this time appear likely. It will as a result be more on the isolated to widely scattered garden variety type storm situation except in isolated cases but the east coast beach locations will at least have a chance of seeing some drought relief that they are in right now.

Low End Severe Storms Possible Late Afternoon Interior & East Later

"Morning stroll"

TODAY: Much of what was in place yesterday remains the same in regard to placements of the surface ridge and winds aloft. Temperatures aloft are about the same however the sounding is more moist that yesterday at KSC and the convective temperature is only 89F; low level instability even at this hour is already much more unstable as well. 

Radar shows a line of showers and storms associated with the mid-level trough progressing east early this morning already and short range model shows it will continue to do so and end up aligned with the north/south down the peninsula line almost perfectly timed with when the sea breezes converge.
The cold air aloft, sea breeze mergers aid by this additional feature could result in much greater of coverage and more strong to even severe storms today mainly interior

Additional leeway, though, was added to in this post - given the overall nature of this set up that outflow and/or propagation could press additional storm formation to the east as the east coast sea breeze relaxes later to east of I-95 - therefore, would include the regions south of I4 and along to east of I95 to the beaches for possible strong storms after 7pm.  

Again, the regions around Port Charlotte give or take 30 miles north or south could also see a severe storm today or at least a strong one. Storms could produced hail up to 1.00" (or slightly more) but the strong category of gusts toward 50mph and dime sized hail seems to generally be what most would see in the 'worser' cases.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Storm coverage might decrease and bit and shift more and more toward the west half of the state leaving the east coast high and dry but will continue to watch the GFS has it flails around with the future-cast .  The GFS over night shifted gears to a long term trend of activity moving from the east to the west which is just the opposite of 48 hours ago.

Chance of Strong-Pulse Severe Far Interior Later Today, Many Showers Elsewhere

Pileus Crowns The Head of a Majestic Storm on the 4th of July, 2014

TODAY: Will leave it brief but to say a few flies possible in the ointment today. Early activity SE Florida will work north and dwindle as outflow propagates up the east coast sea breeze front. West coast sea breeze to be slow to move far from the coast as will the east coast sea breeze until mid afternoon at least. There was what appeared to be a 'vorticity max' over South Central per visible satellite imagery earlier but the clouds that were 'swirling' in the animation associated with it are dissipating ; but if that was a vort max could see a greater cluster of storms further to the east of Central than earlier guidance was showing. 

The SPC Meso-scale analysis page was showing something there earlier. and as of 11AM shows it much smaller and located over North Brevard which is a bit too far east still but close enough..it appears it will lift more NE with time and gradually dissipate but still might have some residual effects this afternoon. 

Otherwise, today is much like yesterday in most regards. Temperature profile aloft is about the same and some severe sized hail was reported toward the West Central Side. The SW portion of the state again it seems will grab the lime light today but parts of Central (mainly South Central) could also get into the action. Other activity along the sea-breezes might produce some sound affects audible even at the coast or close to up and down locations along US-1 (even if the rain falls further west).

Steering is very slow, so most apparent motion will be induced by random anomalous propagation along pre-existing or storm induced outflow boundaries merging with lake breezes.

Activity could last into the night fall hours in the form of some isolated storms while lasting rainfall   might dampen out potential fire works as it drifts possibly toward and over the coast in a few areas but exactly where is impossible to say.

SUNDAY: Appears a continued chance of storms as well.

BEYOND: Not too much change but could be a slower day toward Tuesday or Wednesday time frame into Thursday before picking up again, perhaps if the GFS is correct. That is , to to be more specific, the GFS model shows a fairly active period toward the end of next week into next weekend with even the east coast locations getting storms moving off shore. Chances are it will flail around with the settings until it gets more fine tuned.

Isolated to Widely Scattered Inland Storms Today ?

Cape Canaveral Late Thursday Afternoon

TODAY: Appears storms today will be less available for the General Public's amusement from yesterday's light and wind show as it stands as of 8AM at least. A gust of 70mph was recorded at MCO (airport - Orlando). 

The KSC sounding came in with CAP strength of 3, less over all atmospheric moisture spread evenly up the column, though temps aloft remain about the same. It's the moisture distribution that is the issue, so unless that changes and that particular condition is representative of a large area...then storms will be harder to come by for the most part.

Noting that guidance has shifted around quite a bit over the past several hours and has, in general, been on a downward trend since earlier this morning. But will the tides turn for a reversal as the morning wears into the afternoon? It always could but will go with what can be found at this hour and let the chips fall where they may...which is about what the case ends up being anyway.

Radar images from yesterday afternoon. Yellow boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings.

THIS AFTERNOON: Some showers could form along the east coast sea breeze but not expecting much more than that, steering remains to the east per the sounding though which was a bit not what I was expecting to see from what the models were showing...another fly in the ointment. Steering toward the east at around 10 knts...but expect delayed initiation though there is little to no inversion this morning  but the convective temperature was 92F ..the sky is brighter..which would spell noon time initiation..but if moisture isn't right...there will be nothing to initiate which is an issue. All holds barred to the lower coverage, would point to inland coverage boundaries mainly late across the Western Glades and parts of SW Florida then up along I27 mainly into Lake County / Ocala and down toward Bok Tower and some points further east to the Western MCO suburbs. Perhaps weaker activity dead Central to eastern side a bit but the focus should be later with a prevailing east coast sea breeze as the day wears on.

NOTE: It is possible that areas outlined to the north will shift more toward the east to Western Volusia south toward Sanford, down town MCO toward Central Osceola but not holding any bets on that this hour

WEEKEND: Today might be a 'dry slot' day as noted above, but not so sure that indicates a trend. Would continue with inland chances of showers/storms and in general, very 'summer - typical' with a few strong storms with slightly colder than the norm temperatures aloft but won't go into details in regard to timing and location at this juncture.

Are Isolated Pulse Severe/Strong Possible Again Today?

IMAGE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY: Many factors
are close to the same as were for yesterday - Near Severe Late SW - Parts of Central also "Possible"
and Perhaps Panhandle as well..any storms to move off east coast 'would' be late if at all

NOTE: "Possible" means possible not probable

TODAY: KSC sounding came in with near -8.5C and 6.5C at 500 and 700mb respectively at a quick eye-balling glance per the SMG (Space Meteorology Group) web link. Forecast convective available potential energy (CAPE) is near moderate though suspect in the early to mid afternoon it might dwindle a bit. Yesterday there was a CAP strength of 4 (presumably) but today it is zero. Yesterday the convective temperature was 94F and today it is 92F. Early this morning it looked a bit hazy like there was subsidence in the lower levels, at least around the beaches. That implies stability which should break but not likely well enough as the sea breezes emerge and shift in land.

What this spells out is some earlier initiation for some areas and that is the case over SE Florida. There was one report of ping pong balls (1.50" hail) yesterday with several .70 -.88 inch dimes and nicklels. It does rain money afterall~ ! Not sure we'll go for a par with golf balls but who knows. Then again, it's Florida and much depends on low level convergence and proper timing. There was a report of a 'large' waterspout off shore Indialantic Beach yesterday as well.  

 0756 PM WATER SPOUT 1 MILE EAST INDIALANTIC  

07/01/2015  FL   TRAINED SPOTTER   
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A LARGE WATERSPOUT OFF OF INDIALANTIC

Radar Image Late Afternoon with Two Severe Warnings in Yellow Boxes

The net estimate is, perhaps the same for today but evolving in whatever way it will be. There is no real info out there to say otherwise, though moisture profile is a bit different aloft and that could change everything but will go with 

persistence.

BEYOND: The ridge axis at the surface will lift toward Central Direct by Friday 

into Saturday but aloft it remains a bit to the south. Thus, steering continues toward the east side north of Fort Pierce or Vero Beach but very slowly..the net 

effect would be in general to keep storms pegged west to near I-95 with perhaps a drift to the east coast later, or increasing cloud coverage at least.

Fourth of July continues to show for about a 40-50% percent coverage inland 

late afternoon and early evening. Any showers or thunder close to the east 

coast would occur earlier in the day (as it stands now).

Chance of Isolated Strong Storms (Wind) Today Parts of Central/South - However.....

AS OF 8:15AM Satellite Animation shows a cluster of storms/rain moving ESE steadily in the Eastern Gulf. Suspect it will dwindle but stranger things have happened 

TODAY: A bit of a variation of yesterday, and tomorrow will be a bit the same as today.  But sandwiched into between this larger time scale frame comes this potential anomaly moving  across the Eastern Gulf. How long it will remain together is hard to say but in some way it could directly or even indirectly throw a few 'screws and loops loose'  in the forecast for later today -- but taking that into consideration in the 'otherwise realm'...

Fairly good consistence is that most concentrations of activity today will be Central and South Florida for one reason and along North Florida for another . That disturbance in the Gulf might in fact be a part of the 'contribution' for this afternoon. A little gift so to speak.

 Morning KSC sounding indicated two factors which would spell out near ZERO CHANCE of rain today with a CAP strength of 4 which is unbreakable and convective temperature of 94F. This means one of two things...either a contributing factor is going to  replace the air mass or it won't rain today even anywhere near by, OR the sounding messed up. 

 Model guidance says otherwise though consistently. Rains today, with some possibly strong storms as the sounding came in with -9C at 500mb and around 5C at 700mb which is cold compared to say a standard mid summer day when 500mb might be around -2-  -5C and 700mb closer to 10C...

With some drier air around spatially oriented randomly though, any cold air plummeting earthward could produce some hefty winds in initial fall of heavy rain fall and nearby as well. Sea breezes should stick fairly close to the coast north of Ft Pierce in general..but believe also that any sea-breeze will be quite shallow in the vertical depth category given the wind profiles shown at least at The KSC. 

Activity should be later today as well if the sounding is reflective of the surrounding areas. Later today could be a bit of an 'adventure' in some areas ..with potent lightning bolts, strong winds, and maybe even a few 'peas or dimes'...if possible.

THURSDAY: Thursday looks a bit similar to today, but time will tell. No two days are exactly the same in this pattern, especially for North Florida where they might have a better chance of storms again tomorrow. Yesterday most if not all the severe reports came out of the North Florida region. Today does not look like that will be the case. Eyeing Central and SW Florida specifically.

BEYOND-THE 4TH WEEKEND: Increasing chance of rain from previous posts. The GFS is shifting gears and not lifting the ridge axis as far north as was supposed previously..and that was for many runs too. 

It is now depicting a situation for good sea breeze convergence with a steering toward the east side. Whatever moisture availability there is in the atmosphere come this weekend will determine storm coverage but for now it looks very typical with a 40-50% chance for the forecasts, but that is only at passing glance view for now. Official info is as always from the National Weather Service Offices.

Very Sketchy Blog-Cast - Possible Potent Storms "At the Coast"?

TODAY: Very iffy forecast today. Some models show most of the rains today south half of the state whereas another shows just the opposite to be the case.

In either case, guidance shows unusually higher than normal Energy Helicity Index values from mainly Brevard County and north along and just offshore the coast which is about the only consistent factor. The short range guidance shows way too dry over South Florida today for much of anything to happen but MIA says to the contrary..so image covers both bases but with hesitancy.

The contributing factors for 'unusual activity' near the coast would be the combination of colder air aloft combined with the EHI as noted as well as a sea breeze potential south of the Cape. Additionally, there is slightly stronger winds aloft today for some slight 'evacuation' and tilting of updrafts.

 If one were to put all guidance together and average it out Brevard County coast to Southern Volusia would have the greatest chance of a strong storm, with possibly a waterspout off shore any where from there to the north but said   'with great hesitancy'. 

Otherwise, outside of any rains..very warm today with wide spread low-mid 90Fs prior to cloud cover.  

BEYOND: Earlier NAM guidance 'suggests' again the potential for another day like today on Wednesday with a shift in characterizations going into Thursday and Friday as the large scale pattern makes some subtle shifting around. 

The repercussions of these subtleties cannot be fully foreseen with much confidence as again guidance is inconsistent in the precipitation fields especially oscillating anywhere from almost no rain anywhere to between isolated and scattered coverage (favoring the east side for stronger storms if so but working more inland going to late week and especially the weekend.

WEEKEND: Latest guidance over night at least wasn't as steadfast on favoring only far Interior and west but more 'down the middle' for rain chances with more of a southerly rather than easterly flow setting up at the lower levels. Time will tell in the next few days what will be closer to the truth of the matter.

Good Chance of Rains - Thunder Today All of North to South Central Florida

TODAY: Will leave today's post brief as radar is matching fairly well with model guidance. Mid level energy sockets to move from west to east and east-south east today across the state independent of the usual  "heating-lifting-sea breeze convergence " diurnal atmospheric life cycle for the most part outside of parts of South Florida.

Image above shows  general;y the west to east progression of most of the rains, though showers could pop up even earlier than the linear progression above depicts in some areas. Rains could linger for a while after passage of the leading edge and some random activity might re-develop late in the day toward the west coast (mainly) Best chance of thunder would be along the leading edge of the activity but so far severe storms are not expected for the most part but not 100 percent exclusively, just very unlikely.  

TUESDAY-WEEKEND Colder air aloft would or could result in stronger storms, but on the other hand it might mean earlier initiation. Will see what happens on Tuesday in how it plays out as earlier initiation would not allow for sea breeze convergences to work their magic as well, and thus lack of stronger storms. 

It's a bit of a guessing game through Thursday perhaps as the ridge axis way south lifts north to Central Florida and then eventually north of Central by the weekend if not by Friday leaving the east coast high and dry for the Fourth of July outside of showers that might move on shore. Overall, storm coverage is not being shown to be very high as atmospheric moisture levels might not be quite as high as could be otherwise and/or not at the right levels. Will have to wait that one out as well..precluding the chance of antecedent cloud cover on any given day which would be a debilitating factor for better storm growth.

Similar to Saturday - Stronger Storms North

Anticrepuscular Rays

Anticrepuscular rays

Anticrepuscular rays or antisolar rays are similar to crepuscular rays, but seen opposite the sun in the sky.Anticrepuscular rays are near-parallel, but appear to converge at the antisolar point because of linear perspective.Anticrepuscular rays are most frequently visible near sunrise or sunset. Crepuscular rays are usually much brighter than anticrepuscular rays

TODAY: Slight chance of a quick shower almost anywhere though at time the KSC Sample of the Atmosphere aloft showed too dry for much of anything though expect that was temporary per RAP model guidance and precipitation coverage depicted on the High Rez-Rapid Refresh, HRRR. 

Most activity will take the form of 'mere' rain showers, though thunder could occur along the east side east mainly of I-95 except South Florida where I-95 runs much closer to the coast. Better chances of any thunder there and east of Lake Okeechobee either side of the Lake Shadow and perhaps near the Cape briefly as well or north of Melbourne Beach though most thunder if any will occur perhaps just off shore the east coast north of Ft Pierce. 

Better chances of thunder also east coast North Volusia and north, with some stronger storms yet further north and west across the Panhandle.

MONDAY: Similar set up, likely with some variables so at this time no need to allude to that time in depth OTHER THAN there might be greater moisture further south, such that parts of North Central could end up in a similar situation to the one the region closer to I-4 is in today.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Transition day as ridge axis at the lower levels lifts a bit further north allowing better sea breeze convergence activities to resume ...suspect these two days will be a bit similar with perhaps another transition going into later in the week. Temperatures aloft are continuing to shall a fall (colder aloft) and thus would be watching for stronger storms than what will be experienced Today and Monday.

NEXT WEEKEND: By next weekend sea breeze convergence and steering might for several days favor interior and west before another trough begins to carve across the country and flip flop the pattern, but that is too far out in time and subject to change.

I Know What You Did Last Summer

Last Summer on June 26th

TODAY: Much more brisk SW-W component to the winds just above 'the deck' with little chance of inland east coast sea breeze expansion beyond perhaps US1 or I-95 and that might be generous.

Best chance of sea breeze from the Cape and South. 

Showers already on parade here and there marching eastward but not expecting much from them, with some thunder underway far Southeast Coast. The true nature of what is to eventually (or not) emerged will be revealed as the west coast sea breeze makes the move east later today, but exactly how late that will be is the key to much of the forecast.

 If it comes in just late enough but not too late localized helicities along the sea breeze front combined with strong convergence and post-peak daytime heating could yield some storms  east side with quite a punch..but if it comes too soon or too late the collision will be nearly all for naught. 

Will err on the side of caution for the areas shown in graphic. Outside of the best storm chance region appears mainly showers with perhaps some bolts possible .

BEYOND: Sunday might yet be ever more sparse on the rain chances and hard on the Mercury Rising at the coast. Biggest hazard might be hot white sand on bare feet and sunburn with a high SPF Factor and UV Index to boot.  Pass the tannin' butter, but not much surf.  Again, chances of showers mainly in some isolated areas but as usual this might change but not likely by much.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance a bit sparse on Monday then ups the ante Tuesday and beyond as sea breezes converge with greater force just inland but still favoring the east coast. Colder air aloft as well enters the equation. Beyond Wednesday no overall dry slots are foreseen. 

Some Iso-Strong Storms Late East Central - Central

GET OFF THE BEACH!!

TODAY: A bit similar to yesterday with some caveats with a later start already and less activity far east central. Another area coming off the Gulf near Cedar Key like yesterday but not as strong. Steering aloft a bit stronger toward the east than yesterday..and the day started out a bit drier in the mid-levels over south half of state. Additionally, model guidacne is not as aggresive with rainfall coverage by a long shot as it was yesterday. As a result...not as clear cut.

Storm over or near Eau Gallie toward Melbourne just after  12 Noon Thursday  

Otherwise, given the latest short-term model (namely HRRR - High Resolution Rapid Refresh) trends , and current conditions accompanied by satellite animations will play UP the rain chances yet still regardless of the aforementioned for portions of South Central and Central interior and east as noted in the following image.  Sea breezes to meet more toward the Central and East side late today. Yesterday's earlier activity far East Central through a wrench in the east meets west sea breeze collision equation but so far today this does not seem will be a factor. Even so, some strong storms did form, with some warnings going out or Special Weather Statements.  Believe over all though activity will cover a smaller area today and linger for a while perhaps even to after dark.

ISO - Isolated , the Exception rather than the rule

SATURDAY- SUNDAY: Warm and less activity as sea breezes will meet far east side. Suspect some storms will go up fairly late for the most part very close to the east coast with some iso - showers and few storms elsewhere unless a fly-in the ointment event occurs early in the day along the west coast which could through the whole synoptic scale set up out of whack so time will tell.

MONDAY- TUESDAY  Watching to see if there is an increased chance of strong to marginal severe, but so far official forecasts haven't been saying much about it.

Broad Coverage of Showers and Thunder Today, Some Near - Severe Possible Early Next Week?

Sunrise Thursday Morning, June 25, 3025

TODAY: Really not much change today from yesterday with more widespread storm coverage to evolve during the late morning through mid-afternoon with the show - hogs coming on stage late afternoon to early evening when things really get rolling inland from both and all coasts. Chance of lingering rains somewhere Central to South Central well past dark could drip out the last vestiges of the day's convective elements.

Some activity might be able to work back toward the coast as far south as the Brevard Coast in general to offshore (in a weakened state) but at least it would be some rain much needed. Otherwise, some stronger storms are possible but nothing 'extreme is foreseen' so far relevant to say an average storm day

BEYOND: As was noted yesterday ...west to east steering flow will begin over the weekend, latest guidance suggests at least a small chance that the east coast sea breeze might be able to form on some days from Saturday through Tuesday but too soon to say for sure.  But if so, some strong to near severe storms would be possible given the colder air aloft shown to be in place for a few days early next week (colder than what is currently aloft).

If so, it wouldn't be getting very far inland from the beaches. Moisture availability over general regions will have to remain on hold until each day arrives.  Finally some summer like weather though  as the first day of celestial summer has just passed.

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Synoptic Scale Pattern Shift Could Bring Needed East Coast Rains At Last

Sunrise Skies (Looking West) Wednesday Morning

TODAY: Pattern shift advertised by the GFS model referred to in a previous post seems to be locking in with greater confidence as of the over night runs. A heat ridge (believe it is referred to as a Sonora Heat Ridge) to build over the Desert Southwest Region with rising heights as far north as Southern Canada with a response of falling 500mb heights to the east will result in 'Ridge to the west  -  trough over the East'. This will bring much cooler temperatures to many areas of the country but also for Florida change the storm steering currents closer to NORMAL for June and early July...finally.  

Heat to build over this weekend into early next week (shown is around the 5000 ft level AGL)
Note the winds over Florida at that level by then are from the west at 15kts

The Response higher up at 20,000 ft is winds from the west at 15-20 knots as well

Today: A bit unexpectedly a weak mid level low pressure circulation of sorts has formed over Southern to Central Georgia. This will result in a very weak mid level flow from the west toward the east today, but so weak the change will barely be discernible for most, especially people that are inland. 

For the east coast, this might encourage late day (mostly early evening) cloud cover to increase, with a nudge of the sea breeze collision perhaps another 10 miles further toward the east than yesterday in various locations along the north south line running down the state. Strongest storms would be late after 6:pm from western Osceola County and north through or near the Ocala region toward Gainesville or even east of that line perhaps over toward the Suwanee River Basin 

Another 'hot spot' could be closer toward Sanford eventually depending on how far inland the east coast sea breeze has made it. Slight chance some activity could work back toward the east coast after dark north of SR 50 as light rain.

BEYOND: Not much change tomorrow but Friday there is a chance that steering might favor even more toward the east side as a large and powerful Heat Ridge builds over the Desert Southwest Region as noted in the above images (which were depictions for the Monday  next week time frame).

Heat Ridges can be very stubborn to break down...combined with the trough over the East as shown steering aloft will increase from west to east. There is a chance that by Saturday or Sunday through Tuesday a sea breeze on the east side will be hard to come by north of Ft Pierce or Melbourne. If so that would or could mean very warm at the coast but a decreased chance of rains as well without the added boost of a sea breeze collisions. Time will tell, as that is still a bit too far out in time.

Otherwise, by mid-week next week the ridge is expected to lift north more from well to the south which will weaken steering and allow sea breezes to work their magic, with the ridge axis across Florida then oscillating somewhere between mainly Central to South Central for an extended period. 

This would be the first time this summer that storms will not be continuously shoved to the left side of the state for a large percentage of the time. East coast could finally get some needed rains is the short and long of it.

Isolated Showers - Inland Storms Possible - One or Two Briefly Strong

Monday Sunrise at Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Might see a bit more activity inland today over yesterday. There was some late night activity as thought might occur up by the JAX area and other activity around the Tampa area into early morning. Both of those areas have resulted in an imbalance in the spread of instability with a slow start to the CU field in some locations -- additionally there is a chance that both areas of activity have left a boundary outside the perimeter of them..which might act as a catalyst for storm initiation later today. 

Otherwise, there appears to be a bit more moisture today with both the RAP and NAM showing drier conditions over South Florida / South Central which is forecast to recover going into mid afternoon...by which time the east coast sea breeze will have made its greatest inland progress from West Palm and South.

Could be a late day collision east of 27 running from near the Polk/Osceola County line snaking north and east a bit here or there toward far western Volusia/Sanford/ Ocala / Gainesville give or take about 20 miles either side of that line. Most active period might begin shortly after 4pm... through dark... some lingering inland activity well past dark.

Areas being considered, though might have noted  SW Florida as well

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Daily basis analysis regime has set in. Little change over all foreseen, but moisture availability might be in question -- overall a pattern shift   emerges on Thursday becoming   evident over the weekend as steering currents take hold with a west toward the eastside component.