So Long Summer 2015

Monday Morning in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: As expected per blog post two days ago, the 'cold front' made it's way through Central Florida over night and ended up near the north shores of Lake Okeechobee if not even further south as a mere wind shift line, but further north 'significant drying' occurred from I-4 and north like none we've seen in many many months of yore. Morning lows in the Panhandle were into the lower to mid- 50s and worked to the mid 60Fs further south. 

Across Central today with a slightly more mild temperature at sunrise at some locations the only real difference might be noticed in barely lower dew points from mainly I-4 and north again but right at the beaches the change won't be nearly as discernible. Afternoon highs most areas though will be lower except parts of South Central and South by a few degrees - more so North Florida. Mainly mid-upper 80Fs for the most part - a few 90Fs interior south.

Chance of thunder South Florida today interior and west side with possible showers coming in from MIA to as far north as VRB - slight but close to Nil chance but not totally as far north as Canaveral later today into early evening.

TUESDAY: Boundary now fully washed up might begin to buckle along the east coast as an inverted coastal trough most notable tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Moisture will have fully worked back north as wind becomes more South East to South South east and winds above the surface   almost become more southerly as we approach late Tuesday but more so later this week. Chance of showers still lower but not completely zero either almost any time but mostly before noon along the east coast..more toward the west coast if not in the Gulf itself later Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY; Better chance of showers many areas. Will watch just to see if perhaps some convergence bands of showers begin to form off the North Bahamas along  the "downstream helicity- wind streak factor"  which would impact somewhere between Ft Pierce toward Vero or Sebastian (if not eventually further north); so far guidance doesn't imply it..but rarely does it forecast such small scale potentialities. Colder air aloft with deepening ESE-SE flow could well warrant the chance though ...as showers might be able to work as far north as JAX on Wednesday.

BEYOND: Chances of showers almost any time as noted in previous post. No more cold fronts for a while. On the other hand..with prolonged deeper easterly flow..it appears that Thunderstorm Season 2015 is over, at least for the east coast in regard to sea breeze convergence related type activities. for by the time any potential set up related to sea breeze convergence storms arrives..we will be well into later September with shorter days and lower instability during the days..meaning for the most part -other than maybe a few days here or there - summer is over...per the celestial calendar fall is one week away after all.

Red Sky At Night , Sailor Delight - so long storms

Rare Chance of Early September Severe Storms Today

Rare Early September Sky Could Be Prelude to Rare Storms This Afternoon - Possibly

TODAY: Odd to be speaking of 'bulk shear in the mid-upper levels' this time of year but indeed such is the case today. Usually such terminology is reserved over Florida for mid-Winter through mid-Spring (in relation to a storm potential) - that combined with anticipated Moderate Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) which is small to totally absent in the winter months will both co-exist today in a very moist atmosphere. Additionally, there is the smallest of chances a side shore sea breeze component could manifest from Brevard County and south , perhaps even a bit further north which in the presence of warm ocean temperatures could add a 'bang for the buck' near the east coast - or even off shore for boating interests. 

The net effect is for a chance of 'severe storms' today with wind gusts in excess of 58 mph - apart from said activity gusty winds  could otherwise occur even in fast moving rain showers or near them. 

On the other hand, high level cloudiness and 'not all that cold aloft ' temperatures at 500mb preclude a better certainty of 'severe' type activity. There is a chance of earlier storms going up west side resulting in dense cloud cover across the Interior and East coast which put the squash on severe weather though the RAP and NAM guidance models are both showing some decent vertical velocities (VVs) near the east coast from Brevard south through Indian river counties after 2-3pm.  

 Areas south of Brevard are not under the Bulk Shear components though might have better instability than further north. The 'strong-severe' chance/threat should be working south and east with time into the mid-afternoon. This does not 'guarantee' severe storms everywhere, though at time it does appear that some areas might well experience at least a stronger than the norm storm today.

 A few showers might 'pop' prior to the best chance of heavier rainfall as well south of I-4 into South Florida almost any time from late morning on. Rainfall totals might not be all that large due to faster storm motions.

Though not in the 'red lines' for 'possible severe'..watching blue areas too (blog purposes only)

SUNDAY: Boundary of front to slide into Central or South Central during the day but the upper level kicker-energy will have passed well east of the state and out to sea. There might still be cloud cover to hold down highs into the 80Fs but continued humid as usual. Best chance for storms might be Eastern Portions of South Central and South Florida though a few  showers possible south of I-4 at almost any time.

MONDAY-BEYOND: Onshore flow slowly develops into Tuesday as noted yesterday. Moisture continues. Suspect temperatures along the east coast might vary by less than 10 degrees for several days as ocean temperatures are still in the lower 80Fs for the most part and as a result, 24 hour temperature variations will be minimal.   Shower chances continue ..for almost anytime east coast with thunder more likely interior and western portions of the state.

Higher Likelihood of Rain/Storms Saturday Many Areas - Not a Beach Day

September 11, 2014 Cape Canaveral

FUTURE-CAST: Shifting 'sands' occurring as a frontal boundary approaches Florida over the weekend. The wind shift line associated with this front appears will make it as far south as Lake Okeechobee by Monday but the moisture associated with the boundary will remain as far north as around I-4 (in general) underneath the 700mb trough which remains north of Central Florida. 

The boundary determined by the wind shift at the surface (ground level) is then to wash out and lift back north going into Tuesday with very little change in temperatures at all and  continued high humidity south of I-4 or a bit north of there. 

This boundary passage though might well make the true 'beginning of the end' of sea breeze convergence type thunderstorm activities for 2015...outside of a few days here and there spread out across the next two weeks (at least for Central and North Florida).

TODAY: Chance of showers and some thunder mainly south of or near SR 528 east side of state and south. The greatest concentration might well be St. Lucie County and South where east coast sea breeze has the greatest inland penetration accompanied by the Lake Okeechobee Shadow affects. 

Chance of showers or even thunder perhaps as far north as Cocoa Beach late today or even early evening - perhaps as late as was the case last night for Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/ Merritt Island zones (surprisingly)  after 10PM last night.

General Guess-Cast for Today (South Central) and Saturday (North half of State)

SATURDAY: Disturbances associated with upper level trough and the surface front to ride mainly over the North Half of the state. There is close agreement in guidance that activity will propagate and move along from west to east beginning early to mid morning from west coast to east coast. The affects of such can already be seen further to the west over the Northern Gulf as of 2pm today. Saturday looks to mostly a cloudy day (except maybe before noon for interior and east coast)..with increasing rain chances, even storms, some possibly on the stronger side.

SUNDAY: With the disturbances having passed, Sunday should be a much more dry day, though not sure about cloud coverage. Lower temperatures over Central/South (mainly in the afternoons) would be a function of cloud coverage and not of cooler air having filtered this far south (which will not be the case along I-10 where it will end up being both drier and cooler). Such affects will be short-lived in any regard, however, as the boundary is absorbed by high pressure passing west to east north of Florida and the remains lift north potetnially as a bit of an inverted trough along the Florida east coast. going into Monday and Tuesday.

FUTURE: Might watch for a 'min-rain event" along the Florida east Coast, especially from Vero Beach and South mid-late week next week or potentially as far north as Daytona. Too soon to say if even that will occur, but the set up is staring to look like there is a potential for one over a 2-3 day period somewhere along the east coast with prevailing and deepening easterly flow and cooler air aloft at times.

Widespread Showers -Storms Possible Today

Cocoa Beach Pier Monday , September 7th

TODAY: Low pressure circulation which two - three days ago was located southwest of Port Charlotte continues to lift north to the Panhandle as shown in the next image. Meanwhile, upper level temperatures are warming a bit with 500mb and 700mb temps forecast to be around -5.5 to -6C/ and 10C respectively. These temperatures are alone not conducive for stronger storms apart from upper level energy and/or stronger low level deep convergence along defined boundaries which will be a bit hard to come by today.  

The best convergence should occur along the east coast north of West Palm Beach on the east side aided by low level helicities along the 'somewhat side shore component' to the east coast sea breeze being affected by the synoptic scale flow as a result of the broader cyclonic circulation over the state as evidenced in the small scale by the low pressure area shown

Otherwise, showers and or thunder could conceivably occur almost anywhere, but the east side will probably hold off until later in the day as activity moves from southwest to northeast in general from the west side and sets off foreword moving outflows ahead of the west coast sea-breeze in tango with the synoptic scale SW Flow from 2000ft up through the 18,000 ft large scale flow in a very moist environment.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The South west flow will begin to relax a bit, but there is also a chance some drier air will be slotted in with it across a portion of the state. As a result, at this point it appear activity will not be nearly as prevalent on one or both days. A cold front is forecast to reach near the area around the Florida/Georgia border before being absorbed ..thus not directly impacting the majority if not all of the state, but more directly the area north of I-4 where storm coverage might be greatest and/or strength.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: The GFS implies colder air aloft and better chance of sea breeze convergence toward the East half of the state with activity to exit the east coast.  The NAM is not showing the colder air aloft though. This is apart from any other unforeseen circumstances (variables yet foreseen) - that is the general picture being painted at this point this morning. If there is colder air, storms could become strong to pulse severe at time toward the end of this week.

BEYOND: Continued chances of showers/thunderstorms extends will into next week - though the amount of coverage and locations is well too far beyond to bother attempting to forecast such.  Temperatures are expected to remain warm though with no sign of cooler air as of yet to overcome the state.

Potential For a Powerful Lightning Storm or Two Later Today East Side

Morning Tide - Sunrise Time

TODAY: Pattern shift began last night as severe warned (and verified) storms pelted NE Florida early evening. Outflow boundary and accompanying rain made it to part of Central Florida, even some lightning inland late evening. The boundary is likely laying around over South Central still in some form even now and might work a bit north into early afternoon.

Meanwhile, light westerly to northwesterly wind at the low levels won't be strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze as mid-upper levels winds increase to 15 -20 kts. This should be enough to at least allow rains to reach the beaches in some form..and depending on how quickly the west coast sea breeze works east could result in fairly strong convergence and upward vertical velocities (VVs) mainly from Eastern Osceola/Brevard, Seminole , and perhaps most of Volusia County or at least south half of it later today.

 The only apparent crimp in the style is early day activity already in progress at 10AM with lightning. Outflow from this activity could disturb the diurnal cycle contingent upon how long it lasts and why it is happening which is not apparent readily.

Morning KSC sounding does not show cold air aloft, but does show a bit of an inverted V at the lower levels and some pockets of dry air in the mid levels which could result in strong gusty winds due to rapid evaporative cooling through the low levels..with very swirly wind gusts in and near downpours.

TUESDAY: This day looks like it could be a variation of today so won't go into details.

BEYOND. Trough along the east coast once again as we rotate around the summer cyclic pattern of 2015 of storms toward the east side late day. Coverage will depend on moisture content of the atmosphere though which is hard to say at this time .  Chance we might see stronger storms in the Thursday / Friday time frame. 

Additional long range model guidance/forecast gets difficult with the overnight GFS implying remnants of Old 'Danny' Boy perhaps getting involved with the Atlantic Ridge axis and southerly flow toward the weekend or beginning of next week (?)..and wrapping around it toward the peninsula. Will watch to see if we hear TV weather stations implying that potential in days ahead. If so, could really need to UP the rain chances in the extended outlooks for many areas.

Solo Flight

Big Lightning Threat - Large Rainfall Totals Inland Possible

Early Morning Cloud Line along the Banana River - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY - TOMORROW: These two days look similar as of morning model guidance so will clump them together. Chance of heavy downpours today away from the coasts with a few storms exhibiting frequent lightning possible. KSC sounding came in with very light wind up through the lower column, as such, wouldn't be surprised to hear of a funnel cloud sighting or two today - especially early on if something gets going near an area lake wind or sea breeze boundary. Best chances of heavier storms appears will be interior Central and South Central. Tomorrow - could be similar in nature, but exactly where the 'better chances' will be ..will have to wait until that time comes.

BEYOND: Continued mostly interior storms, with coastal or near shore water showers or even some thunder possible almost any morning (there was a lightning this morning off the Cape observed with a tall lone shower). The better chances of storms will be later in the day though over the interior well away from the immediate beach-side.

Upper level steering should be becoming more east to west going into Saturday and/or Sunday especially ..which would mark a pattern change to favor more of the west half of the state.

Tropical Storm Danny has been 'christened' for the record books. Last night's GFS forecast model brought the storm right into Florida..the following run left it well out at sea way before even getting close. Too soon to say is the verdict for now.

Broader Coverage / Iso-Very-Strong Possible Interior Central/South Central

Start of the Weekend - Top of the Morning

TODAY: Slight difference from yesterday before full pattern swing sets up for a solid week (which will result in sig. lowering of rain chances mainly east of I-95); but for today, colder air aloft than past days such as all of last week are in place. 

Steering wind is from the WSW-ENE from 7,000 feet and above averaging about 11 kts. Though some storms could initiate along the east coast sea breeze almost anywhere, they will first move west along that boundary due to less vertical development but might 'cling' east for a time. Latest Mesoscale analysis page shows some stronger  "Craven-Brooks severe" parameters in place over East Central Florida at this time which should advect well inland if they even last and be in place for sea breeze convergence boundaries later today mainly Central Osceola County into Polk, Southern Lake , West half of Orange and south into South Central Florida as well, or maybe just a bit east of the spine of the state as well.

 Some storm debris or if possible even a renegade thunder storm might make it back east toward the coast mainly near the Far North Brevard to Volusia County regions if conditions set up just right, but suspect the stronger storms will be further south and inland due to cloud cover still over a part of Central and North Central Florida at 11AM.

Note: If east coast sea breeze is slower to move inland by some fluke, true thunder with Cloud to Ground lightning could conceivably' reach the east coast north of Melbourne, but would be very unlikely.. Heavy downpours and frequent lighting seems to be the best bet today, if not some 'peas or B.B. hail". 

 Lingering rainfall over parts of Central or East Central might continue after the gang bang is finished and the strangling storm debris keepson keepin' on toward dark.

BEYOND: Deep south  - south east flow to focus all the thunder activities inland and west coast most if not all of next week and toward the weekend. This does not necessarily preclude areas along the immediate coast from all rainfall chances though. 

Guidance does show varying degrees of deep layer moisture from 1.7 - 2.2" PWAT (precipitable water) during this time frame, sometimes even at the coast. What that could mean is that regions at the beaches mainly south of I-4 (mainly Brevard and South) could experience pre-sunrise to late morning toward noon time showers before the sea breeze sets up in full swing on any of these days.

In the Far Beyond the GFS hints at perhaps a weak inverted trough - tropical wave-like feature might swing through in the next two weeks..if not two of them which could bump up rain chances all areas. It's starting to look much more like early fallish-tropical season now more than summer right now...that is unless the later runs of the GFS make yet another pattern shift before the end of August...perhaps toward the  26th might be possible

Increasing Storm/Rain Chances Today - Saturday

TODAY: Pattern shift which began yesterday will be in 'full force' in varying degrees and ways in sensible weather mainly today - Saturday. Though it is difficult at time to tell how cloud cover earlier in the day might affect the outcome for the afternoons in future days - today through perhaps Friday seem to be the best storm chance days, particularly Thursday (?) (GFS guidance).

Westerly steering flow at all levels varies for 8 -13 kts this morning and shouldn't change much during the day. The west coast sea breeze is already evident on visible satellite imagery and is to trounce eastward during the heating of the day to set off rain showers and some thunder 'here-n-there', but the best chance of 'pronounced thunder' will be near to east of I-95 up and down the east coast mainly north of West Palm or Ft. Pierce after 4:30pm toward early evening.

THURSDAY: Similar scenario at play looks to be the rule but perhaps with better state wide coverage. Colder air aloft comes into play on Thursday and suspect if that is to be the case (per the GFS model, 'Global Forecast System') then either stronger storms will be the rule or earlier onset or a combination of both. This might be the best day for stronger storms before the overall atmosphere gets to mixed in. 

FRIDAY: Also cold air aloft this day, might be an earlier on set but again, hard to say for certain.

On all days with a 'later onset' (after 3pm east side), the east coast sea breeze should be able to form since the winds at the lower levels though westerly (toward the east) are not forecast to be strong enough to offset the sea breeze though it will make little inland progress. With colder air aloft at play though, stronger activity if it does not ignite to rapidly could also occur most anywhere.

SATURDAY: More of the same.

SUNDAY: Looks like a pattern shift toward south to south south east flow which might leave the immediate east coast 'high and dry' outside of mid-late morning activities.

Lower Rain Chance Today to Zero Some Areas - Possibly Strong South Florida Mainly

Storm Moves Off Shore of Cocoa Beach Area Early Saturday Afternoon

TODAY: Big change today with much drier conditions many areas. A backdoor 'front' is progressing southward with drier air behind it. This 'boundary' should hold identity as far south as perhaps the Vero Beach area and arc back north a bit late today along the West Coast sea breeze front to along/near Route 27 in general. Otherwise, upper level winds shift from North (north half of state) to a bit more NW south portions as Jet Stream winds oddly round out from the NE at over 40knts.

Combination of drier air and strong upper level winds (though temps aloft are warm) could still result in a strong storm or two along 27 from Ocala and south but more likely south of the boundary over South Central and/or South Florida late today .  North of even I-4 is sketchy in the strong storm category.

The potential for this to occur was noted about 3 blog posts ago, that though a front might not make it completely through it appeared a mid level trough would. Only difference now is that the surface boundary did make it further south than foreseen.

MONDAY: Continued more of the same with rain chances more likely interior South Florida

TUESDAY: The Sonoran Heat Ridge which has been dictating much of the weather this summer  will again begin to retreat west , eroding on its eastern flanks across Florida and set up for an upper level trough digging down the east coast mainly east of the Mississippi if not further east setting up for SW Flow aloft once again. This becomes especially true by Wednesday and Thursday and firmly in place Friday through the upcoming weekend.

BULBOUS LOWERING CLOUD APPEARED TO HAVE ROTATION ON GROUND EVEN SO SLIGHTLY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON - SEQUENCE PHOTOS BELOW

BACK EDGE OF LARGER CLOUD AREA

AREA MOVING OUT TO SEA

Early Storms Already In Progress Mid-Morning

TODAY: Quick Post. As noted yesterday, today would take on 'the flavor' of yesterday and sure enough early day activity is in full swing with some stronger storms possible first along the west coast due to winds gusts (with some frequent lightning) working south into early-mid afternoon. This 'area' will also release the chance of some stronger storms across South Central/South possibly near the Big Lake zone along the Lake Shadow as day time heating will have had much more time to accumulate by the time the 'instigating impulse' reaches that area.

Not everyone will see rain today, worth nothing -- the East Coast especially north of Vero Beach is 'suspect' even early on today. Chances are there will be a 'shift in character' to the current activity by noon to 1pm but by then the chance of East Coast rains north of Vero will have already passed. Regardless, could still see some stronger wind gusts with rains. Will also watch for re-development for the zone of North Brevard and north toward Volusia/I-4 later this afternoon if substantial clearing can occur after the earlier festivities.

SUNDAY: Watching for stronger storms North Central / Central (interiors). The NAM is fairly consistent with strong VVs (vertical Velocities) in the presence of generous by August standards EHI (Cape/Helicity Indexes); however, it has been bouncing around with the GFS bickering for anything from strong storms to very little at all. Therefore, it is still a bit uncertain at this point in regard to the strong storm chances unless the NAM keeps squawking out some of its bizarre fore- sights

 

LATER SUNDAY  or INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY: Could see a break in the action until the next front approaches. After that point it starts to take on semblances of last weeks rain-daze events minus all the moisture. Either way, a return to more storms by mid-late week next week as well.

Chance of Marginal Severe Panhandle & Perhaps Far East North/Central

Heavy Thunderstorm Moves Off Shore at Cocoa Beach Pier , Thursday 

TODAY: As noted yesterday, today will be a variation of yesterday and so far that seems to be the case - the main likeness to yesterday will be not in who  receives what kind of rain as much as those that had a very low chance of rain yesterday - so too today. 

Otherwise, some new 'driving factors' are at play in the wind fields. Though moisture is bit tad sparser over Central the ribbon of it remains nearly the same running about 30 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Port St. John on the east coast. It appeared even before Sunrise that there was a boundary there and it shows up even better now at sunrise. Steering today could become more NW if any STRONG / SEVERE STORM latches on to the East Coast Sea breeze particularly from near Ormond Beach south toward Southern Volusia. Thus, one thing that 'might' need to be considered is a 'right mover down the intracoastal later today IF the east coast sea-breeze gains momentum up-coast from a strongly southerly component much like it did yesterday over parts of Eastern Brevard County. 

Thus, the risk for strong storms along the east coast south of I-4 is conditional on the east coast sea breeze and any storm forming or even 'rolling' into this area from  a northerly direction OR acquiring a propagating principle down stream along the sea breeze front. 

Latest Mesoscale Analysis page is hitting on  a supercell component or rotating type thunderstorm parameter being present along a line from near Titusville to North Tampa Bay and north...however, with the additional sea breeze front which appears could form but stay perhaps east of I-95 today per KSC Sounding from this morning...could translate that 'supercell' principle further south into where moisture still resides to perhaps near South Melbourne Beach along the east coast if not Sebastian Inlet.

There is a BIG IF though. The forecast for this particular parameter is for it to diminish going into the afternoon, which would leave the chance of nothing more that a rouge thunderstorm in the equation along the Florida east Coast south of Ormond Beach.

BEYOND: Will watch for a chance of stronger storms again perhaps Saturday and/or Sunday but moisture availability and the level of the atmosphere where any will be useful is becoming sketchy. 

So far, the better chance of showers/thunder is being shown by the GFS to be along the east coast and Central Peninsula though we might start to see considerable overnight to early A.M activity along the Nature Coast (Big Bend area) by tomorrow or Sunday morning in association with an approaching frontal boundary.

Strange UFO-ic Sighting over Canaveral Yesterday

Chances of Rain/Thunder East Central Florida and I-10 Alley

"Gentle Morning Cruise"

TODAY: Pattern shift, most pronounced yesterday from a long-pronounced stretch in recent days especially along the West Coast where rainfall totals at one spot totaled up to just under 20" over a period of days with other totals 8" and greater, now in place.

Newly emerging set up now at play for today and tomorrow which should be fairly similar in nature both days favoring thunder more toward the East Coast.

Morning sounding at MIA came in with a pronounced inversion at 5000 ft and dry air above with a convective temperature of 102F. Hard to see how much could occur over South Florida today outside of a huge change in air masses. 

Short range models are showing storms down that way though will disregard for the most part.  The better overall locations of Deeper Moisture vertically through the column is about 50 miles either side of a line running from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay.

With westerly steering at 10,000 feet at around 15kts and slower higher up, would anticipate storm motions to generally be from west to east at around 12 mph outside of anomalous propagation along outflow / set breeze convergence set ups which  which might manifest late this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze  but which should remain close to east of I-95 if not further east in some locations. The Big Lake 'shadow' might also be a factor for low level moisture convergence and storm development near Vero Beach to Sebastian Inlet. Very warm today as well outside of greater overall cloud coverage especially West Central and SW Florida

Best chances of thunder seems to be as shown in graphic below.  Strange little patches of late morning/early afternoon weak cumulus clouds already at play near the Cape area which is unquestionably a sign that things are different from yesterday's clear sky during this same time frame of noon.

General Estimate of Coverage Areas, though Might be More Thunder than Shown Here Central and North
(e.g. Vero Beach area to watch also)

BEYOND: Friday looks similar, and then into the weekend a frontal boundary will  work to I-10 corridor from the North. Latest NAM model however shows the mid-level trough making it's way right through which switches the wind directions around (steering currents from the N-NW) but leaves ample moisture with low level westerlies. All in all, after tomorrow looks like another pattern shift but with isolated to scattered thunder remaining in the equation, with South Florida getting in on the action. Exactly how that will manifest though at this point is a bit hard to saw from looking at the 12z (8AM) model runs so not going to bite yet on specifics.

Chance of Stronger Storms Along / Near I-95 Later Today

"Thursday Mornings"

TODAY:Pond of high PWAT (precipitable water) continues over most of the state today in varying degrees in a most un-July-like fashion. Temperatures aloft as of this A.M. have cooled at 500mb about 2 or 3 degrees. There was some active storms yesterday western portions of North Central toward Lake County vicinity and perhaps more of the same today but further toward the east as low pressure well east   of Jacksonville slowly moves off to the north and east during the day.

There is a potential issue though especially toward the east coast from Brevard and south. High clouds from shower/storm activity well offshore are streaming toward the coast. Suspect these might erode as the approach the coast though especially by mid afternoon so for now will disregard. They can be seen in the image below.

Today is not really in many ways a typical summer like day though for most purposes with this current strange pressure pattern at play and it is not much expected to change significantly for several days.  Early this morning there was more of a December like sky yet coupled with warm temperatures which was a strange combination. That being..a secondary area of mi-low level low pressure circulation forms along I-10 from Florida toward Southern Alabama in the next few days only serving to re-reinforce what is already present but by a different means. 

Temperatures aloft might cool more into tomorrow and/or Saturday so will be watching for stronger storms again on those days before warming is forecast aloft once again bringing storm strength more in line with standard lightning , thunder, and rain with more showers than thunderstorms.

Overall though, rain chances persist into and through the weekend which brings up the next question. What to make of the forecast developing low pressure. Other guidance shows a low also west of Tampa to retreat back toward the WSW over two days placing much of the state in SW moist flow and lots of cloud cover. Then the question becomes..will the moisture manifest only as cloud cover instead of rain? Too soon to say.

Showery Afternoon in Store - Some Thunder Mainly Well Inland

Crackin' The Sunday Morning Sunrise in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Looks mostly like a 'showery' regime today with South Florida beginning to get worked over with cloud cover and showers. Low pressure surface circulation might be located SW of Orlando in NE Polk County up through nearly 5000 ft but wind all across Central is quite weak up through 20000 ft. Thunder might occur later today in from I-95 anywhere along I4 south toward Vero Beach where activity is more likely to affect the coast northward to perhaps Southern Brevard County. All in all best chance of thunder might be Orange, Northern Osceola Seminole, much of Polk and Lake Counties later today as that will be the last location to receive the rains today and thus have greater chances of becoming more unstable. Lightning does not look like it will be frequent though and probably short lived in any storm that can form.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: If guidance is correct per NAM/GFS trends then showers will be more likely to return to the east coast and beaches after perhaps some very warm and steamy starts to the day, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Low pressure region, so far that is, is to lift north and a bit west tonight and put must of Florida other than I-4 and north in a strong and stiff SW Flow aloft. Continued very moist as well. Showers and some thunder could pile up almost anywhere along the east coast later in the day on any one of these days but also occur many other locations earlier in the day or even in any location after around 11AM.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Better chance of lightning coverage and some stronger storms if GFS holds true to form, especially on Friday/Saturday as it is forecast temperatures at 500mb to cool by several degrees, courtesy of a migrant and weak TUTT low from the western Caribbean working toward Florida . Assuming this holds true that is. TUTTs are notorious for being rather unpredictable only a few days out in advance. Otherwise, see no reason to take showers and storm chances out of the outlook for many days ahead, perhaps up through even next weekend.