Large Rainfall Totals Possible Into Thursday - Watching Tropics Early September

Sunday Morning - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Invest 99L  near the Florida Straits appears to be a rather large area of 'interest' though a small circulation area seems to be evident on visible satellite animations near the Keys but the better chance of there being a circulation appears to be near the North Coast of Cuba. The area appears to be moving west and all model guidance suggests a slow drift toward the WNW-NW and eventually North in the next 24-60 hours. How far west it goes is one question before beginning a turn as well as what happens once it does.  Any wind threat appears to be minimal with the bigger 'interest' as far as today's post goes being rainfall totals. Not to say things could change but won't press the envelope in that direction today.

There remains a rather high degree of uncertainty what exactly will transpire in the next four days though there are suggestions that not one but two areas of 'circulation' may develop but exactly where is the big stickler, even for where any heavier rainfall totals might occur -- hence, will stick with a broad brush general trend on the sensible weather that might be on the table into mid-week .
Although showers are again possible during the day almost anywhere, no direct affects from the system will be experienced other than for far South Florida and Keys. Showers possible east coast almost anywhere during the day into this evening.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Trend is for convergence along the far SE Coast working north with time perhaps Monday into Mid-Day Tuesday working into Brevard County. Exactly when that 'might' occur though is not certain .

 The system could be well WSW of the peninsula and still have indirect affects on the state but one thing is certain, high precipitable water values in excess of 2.00" will be in place for several days (at least Wednesday and maybe into Thursday). 

The focus though unless the storm area becomes   wrapped up will not necessarily be around any 'center per-se'..as a broader mid level circulation might end up being the real culprit for heavier rainfall totals combined with vorticity lobes (spin energy) that rotate within the large area of mid-level low pressure.

 Both the GFS and NAM show rainfall totals between 2-4" along the east coast coming into mid-week from Miami as far north as Southern Volusia County and into the interior as well as some areas along the west coast. 

IF a center truly becomes more organized then a POTENTIAL land fall near the Big Bend area near Cedar Key or north of there is always possible. 

Wouldn't be surprise though to see another AOI (Area of Interest) develop SE of the South Carolina Coast or even East of JAX. Just to complicated a situation to say for certain.

Circulation appears near Keys but the overall AOI is much larger.
POSSIBLE Future motion shown with a landfall anywhere from North of Tampa to the Panhandle but that is more of a question that a statement

WEDNESDAY: Discrepancies obviously continue but decent rain chances do not seem to be questionable at this stage. At some point anywhere along the line from Mid-Day Tuesday (perhaps) into Wednesday there is the remote chance of bursts of gusty winds accompanying some shower activities (squally like weather) and should the area become more organized we might be hearing about the chance of 'land falling waterspouts' though at this stage that chance looks rather remote. 

The Latest NAM (in the writer's opinion) is up to playing the extreme edge game as it historically does - so to speak  - suggesting that waterspouts along the east coast would be entirely possibly late Monday and especially Tuesday but not buying it at this stage.

Will note that the CFSV2 shows no surface development but for an inverted trough to stretch NE to SW across the state for some time. That was the solution the GFS was showing even a week ago and it has gone back to that solution several times since then. In short, there is no 'steadfast guarantee' that Invest 99L will ever develop into a 'closed well formed system' though given the current satellite animations that might be questionable.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND: The system 'should' have cleared out toward the NE of Florida (we'll just have to see about that) with rainfall chances greatly diminished most areas, but for the chance a trail of deep moisture lagging behind the system, but where - if so - cannot be determined at this stage.

 INTO FIRST WEEK SEPTEMBER: GFS   and ECMWF and another model all show a much more potent storm approaching the Southeast United States. Granted, there is no area of interest yet to be seen out there, regardless, that  three are showing what looks like could amount to a 'most definite hurricane' which might impact anywhere along the U.S. East coast from Florida to the Carolina's does bear for leaning an ear out for it after we are cleared of Invest 99L which may end up being named yet still.

Isolated Thunder - 'Stronger' Thunder Possible Later Today (Heads Up Next Week ?)

Great Blue Heron by Coral Seas , Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Chance of showers with some thunder possible mainly south and east of I-4, with best chances south of line from Melbourne but then and into the interior south mainly near to west of I95 and near to south of SR528  (Osceola County?) later today.

Morning KSC sounding came in rather moist with most moisture concentrated below 10,000 ft and temperatures aloft running 1-3C cooler than recent days . Thus, some stronger downdraft wind gusts possible late day if the atmosphere hasn't been scoured out or worked over after a full day of sunshine. Will have to wait it out to see how it all unfolds.

MONDAY: Some drying out in the atmosphere is  forecast Central with most moisture North Florida and far South. The weak tail end of a frontal boundary will be approaching to make a bit of a 'back door' passage early Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Tail- ender, back door type 'wind shift front' to cross Central between 5AM - 9AM. Northeast onshore flow though light will follow with little chances of rain in many areas but Southern  and far Northern parts of the state. Northeasterly flow might begin to increase later into Wednesday for 24-36 hours but nothing unusual.

WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY: Will watch for periods of increased atmospheric moisture to reach the state from time to time from the east. So far the first pocket appears might reach East Central before sunrise from around the Cape south toward Ft Pierce. Other days show much less moisture and other days more so timing of which days exactly early day ocean showers will be possible cannot be ascertained that far out in time at this point. Otherwise, most thunder later in the day would be well inland toward the West Coast.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: There is a remote chance that tropical activities might be worth watching for come Sunday into next week. The latest Coupled Forecast System (CFSV2) shows a tropical storm or depression possibly crossing Central Florida from east to west while the GFS has a system approaching far SE Florida only to curve north then northeast at the last minute sometime late next week. 


If either of these is even close to correct is not really possible to determine this far out, for it was only two days ago the GFS nearly showed a hurricane near the state as did the other model and  no sooner did that 'potential'  appear di it but disappear  completely one model run later .

The point being, tropical storm season is clearly making a showing and will continue to allude forecasters   from time to time well into September if not October as well. 

Similar To Yesterday With Some Thunder 'Mainly' East Side (Strong South)

Soaking Up Sunday Morning For All It's Worth

TODAY: Similar pattern overall in regard to where it is mostly likely to thunder and/or rain and when though local synoptic scale pattern is a bit different.

Latest surface analysis and satellite/radar animations clearly show a surface  - to up through at least 5000 ft - low west of Jacksonville rotating nearly in place. Surface winds in response are from the northerly component immediately to the west of the low center while across Central they are mainly SW -SSW and breezy especially portions of Central Florida. Further toward far South Florida there is little in the SWs to speak of if not already an east coast sea breeze.

Morning sounding showed though somewhat drier air across South Florida though the temperatures aloft strangely came in much cooler than expected. This coupled with greater instability and better chance of Lake and Sea Breeze mergers might herald a better chance for Stronger Thunder later today.

Further north SW winds appear will  prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming north of Ft Pierce (in general). Best chance for showers 'per se' but also some thunder along the east coast later today though that is not to say that some thunder could not occur any where mainly south or near of the I-4.  Winds quite breezy in the immediate vicinity of rains : thunder or no thunder.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: For now will take it on the daily basis so not going to get into finer details today. All in all it still appears that perhaps either Monday or Tuesday might be a bit of an 'early onset' type of day with more areas at least receiving measurable rainfall but again not all guidance is in agreement . Over all though, the sea breeze might not be able to kick in once again along East Central on Monday.  Better chances of thunder then would be Tuesday (other than some 'rumbles') and/or Wednesday.  

Steering from the SW begins to decrease  even more notably by Wednesday so that in toward the weekend most of the rains will occur away from the immediate coasts. Eventually an overall more easterly flow is seen to appear around late week into next weekend leaving the coasts dry other than perhaps the onset of some early day coastal showers.

Mid-Afternoon to Early Evening Showers / Some Storms

Cozy Canaveral Condo Cumulonimbus  !

TODAY: (Saturday)  As noted in previous post pattern change had been under way and is now in place. Variations in mid-level temperatures, distribution of moisture availability throughout 'the column', rather poor mid-upper level lapse rates, and not all the best low level convergence for upward forcing due to  (a) periods of cloud cover at times of peak heating , and (b) lack of better meeting of sea breeze convergence even on east coast as gradient winds aloft increase a bit means : mostly showers with some thunder possible . 

Stronger activity would result however in larger rainfall totals due to slower storm motions for those locales that actually do see some rain today. 

Better chance for storms appears as of 11AM to be Central to Eastern portions near to south of I-4. As can be seen below in the satellite image a large cluster of storms and showers and associated cloud cover is expanding its veil across some areas and as a result closing the 'window of opportunity' for better heating in some areas. 

The high clouds over the Central areas are dropping south just in time for the high noon period it at least seems. The region south of I-4 looks like the area to have the better instability and low level convergence along the sea breeze. Though thunder could happen other areas (even rain showers) .

Best chance of any storms near East Central toward SE Interior toward the coast appears to be well into the mid-afternoon with other areas mainly near SW having the earlier start. This activity would then propagate both north and east with time if cloud coverage allows. Not sure guidance isn't a bit over done for today in rain coverage. High clouds play havoc with model guidance at time.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Increasing SW Flow 'just above the deck' might prevent sea breeze onset almost entirely. If too much cloud cover is also at play rain chances might be greatly reduced. Otherwise both SUNDAY AND MONDAY we might start to see more chance of mid-upper level energy (vorticity lobes) crossing the areas across the day which would be the prime impetus for rain fall.  
The NAM was showing 'Sunday' to be a rather 'big day' in the rainfall category but has since made a sift to either Monday or Tuesday (if either day actually evolves as the NAM has been showing it would be rather surprising as it tends to outdo itself all too often while other days it is utterly blind to rainfall chances) so time will tell. All in all though it will be greater energy aloft more so than lapse rates or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that seems will be the core trigger Sunday-Monday-Tuesday.

BEYOND: Going into Wednesday -Friday the pattern begins to 'back off' a bit with less SW steering. See breezes will begin to play into the equation with continued chances of storms mainly away from the coasts but again, some further model agreement as to when we will lose this still yet fully evolved pattern is not certain. All in all, Thursday and Friday still look like better chances for rain than maybe even today, but for different reasons.

Pattern Change at Last! - - Ante Upped for East Coast Rain Chances Into Next Week

"Morning Stroll"

OVERVIEW (SYNOPSIS): Not much deviation from previous blog post a few days ago in regard to 'Thursday into Early Next Week". Slowly but surely the Atlantic Ridge axis is no longer not only going to be the dominate feature north of Florida resulting in east to west storm steering, but it has mostly either pulled off to the east entirely to be of little affect or dropped to the latitude of Lake Okeechobee depending on which level of the atmosphere one is looking at.

The Curse of the "Warm-Dry Spell" is coming to it's demise today into Saturday  As high pressure aloft circulating clockwise from the Lower Plains states region (give or take ) has weakened on its eastern fringes enough so that within the weakness region across Florida and parts of the Deep South weak low pressure is forecast to form around the 5000 -10,000 foot level over Georgia to become more organized and drop south across the Panhandle and eventually even into the far NE Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

 What this means for most of Florida (namely north of generally West Palm Beach) is that a SW to NE steering pattern (albeit rather weak) will be taking shape through the weekend.

Though daily variations in atmospheric  moisture availability will be problematic at times (namely South of Lake Okeechobee and at times east of a line running from near Brevard County SW toward Ft Myers) for the most part during the next 5-6 days it looks like there will be several opportunities for areas east of I-95 (even at times east of US1) to see some long awaited rainfall.


TODAY: Though steering remains light it will be from a westerly component. East coast sea breeze should hold off a bit today and with onset of it in presence of PWAT (Precipitable water) at 2.00" + and the absence  of early day cloud cover  could result in showers near if not even over the east coast areas. 

Other activity could form along the west coast sea breeze and outflow from that activity should ignite more showers/storms toward I75 going into mid afternoon. Overall state coverage as a result will be higher today though storm strength does not appear will be an issue apart from the usual lightning threats at times.
Image below is a 'general depiction' as usual. Not all areas will see rain today and somewhere down toward interior SW Florida could see a thunderstorm today as well (though not shown here).

BEYOND: Appears that some days heading into the weekend there is a chance the east coast sea breeze might even be held off almost altogether at times especially from Brevard County and north but which days if any (especially Friday - Saturday) is hard to determine at this point. Locations where east coast sea breeze is held off entirely (now that steering works in favor of the east coast) could actually be a disservice once again negating the needed low level convergence the sea breezes provide to see off showers and storms despite ample moisture availability...regardless... 

.... several "early onset' days appear to be at hand with near sunrise if not pre-sunrise activities beginning along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville and especially toward Cedar Key and the Big Bend. This area might see some 'grand totals' over the next 5-6 days well in excess of 3-4" if models hold true.  

Early onset days resulting in late morning OFBs (outflow boundaries) heading east and south could set off additional activity going into early afternoon which would 'march' eastward toward the interior and even the east coast, perhaps as early as late morning to early afternoon on some days. 

One thing that will be down-player to the overall scheme is a TUTT low to approach the state toward the weekend from the Bahamas region. This might act as a drying out mechanism for parts of south and Central Florida .

As a result, no guarantees on which days this might play havoc on the forecast for now, but a few 'less wet days' are possible especially south of I-4. Overall over the next 6 days the region north of line from near Sarasota toward Melbourne might have the highest rainfall totals, especially along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville with a secondary area from near Titusville and north along the east coast. High temperatures in the afternoon will be held down a few degrees as well as a result of increased cloud coverage during the normally warmest times of day.

Chance of East-side Rain 'Ticks-up" - Watching Tropics Today / Late Next Week

Small Thunderstorm West of Melbourne, FL Sunday Afternoon Viewed from Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday although moisture appears to be more ample per guidance than was otherwise suggested would be today. The overall 'scheme-of-things' remains unchanged  for the most part in regard to where the better rain chances will once again be  with the dry locations remaining dry.  The anomaly later today might be for showers and some thunder to impact the southeast coast into the Northern Keys after 9pm through midnight south of Ft. Pierce or West Palm Beach area.

TUESDAY: Ridge axis across Central to lift to North Florida leaving again dry locations dry (e.g. far east Central specifically). 

WEDNESDAY: Again, though no two days exactly alike with varying amounts of moisture available it appears a trough will being to lower heights along the eastern seaboard eventually causing the low level Atlantic Ridge axis to shift toward South Central or even to retreat further east with less direct influence on the state -- even to possibly south of Lake Okeechobee for a day or two into the weekend. If so..

THURSDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK: Better chance of rain and thunderstorms close to the east coast early afternoon some days toward mid-evening.  Even so, more cloud cover on certain days will put a dent in the heat for the over night hours by the  mere presence of debris clouds in those areas that have not only not seen rain..by nary much more than a few clouds from time to time. The past two runs of the GFS are showing this to be the case as does the CVS-V2.

TROPICS:  It looks like a named tropical storm will be forthcoming somewhere in the West Central Caribbean south of the Dominican Republic (and moving west ) possibly later today with no threat to Florida. Otherwise, both the GFS and CVS-V2 show the chance that an even better defined system might traverse along a similar course to enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico well out after Day 10. Whether the course of motion of 'said yet to exist system' is reliable is well too far out  to bother being of concern (if it even does manifest), though the time draws nigh for the tropics to 'heat up' -- the ocean temps certainly have.  
In any case, the hints are that it might be worth watching for come the August 10th time frame and beyond.

Isolated Heavy Downpours Interior Later Today

Early Evening Storms Align West of US1 as seen from Cocoa Beach Friday Evening

TODAY: Not a whole lot different in the evolution of how storms are forming today and where the 'peak of activity' might eventually end up occurring today. West coast activity , like yesterday, off to an early start. Expect this activity will send outflows toward the east and those will eventually meet with the east coast sea breeze near to just east of the north/south spine of the state (especially from Osceola County and north) late this afternoon.   In general the image below is a broad brush way of looking at it but not exclusively so. A few isolated large rainfall accumulations are possible due to very slow to non-existent actually storm motion over some interior locations. 

SUNDAY: A thin moisture slot aligned northeast so southwest is approaching Florida from the east. The main 'impacts' from this will be a small increase in rain chances from mostly Brevard County southward and then to the west as the day progresses. Coastal Brevard might see a shower or so in the area (for a change) sometime mid-late morning through early afternoon as well as all points south with better chances of thunder to the west and south of East Central later in the day.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A large tropical wave like feature mentioned in the blog post several days ago to approach 'early next week' is still on the way but is not much expected at this point to affect but the Southern Third of the state. It's still quite a way off however and as a result impacts in regard to increased rainfall chances and times of them are still too far off to worth deliberating over for today . But in any case, the Monday time frame looks to be a day hostile to rain as dry air is expected to precede that actual tropical air mass that is approaching the state (which is typical). 

Rain showers 'might' affect anywhere along the east coast as soon as Tuesday sometime from Central Brevard (mainly ) and south but again timing is an issue as well as extent of any chances of rainfall. The trend lately is to take the bulk of the moisture too far south to have any far-reaching benefits to the sensible weather of recent days for the far east side of Florida north of Ft Pierce up to Ormond Beach. In other words, so far it appears that rain chances remain slim pickins as far as 'normal July weather' is concerned . Considering July is about over it's now a matter if what part of the state (even many interior locations) will fare any better in the first week of August. 

So far long range guidance shows mainly only some tropical waves at best from time to time being the nearly sole source of anything other than widely scattered activity to only isolated on other days. GFS has been hinting that a frontal boundary will make it well south toward the state and act as a source of moisture convergence late next week, but if so that would be for areas north of I4 (if even that).

Chance of 'Strong to Marginally Severe" Storms (Mainly South of I-4)

Towering "Morning Cloud" Hovers Over the Coast - Friday Morning

TODAY Tropical Upper level Tropospheric Trough  (TUTT) Low is slowly shifting east to west 'well aloft' around 30,000 feet accompanied by a tongue of dry air in the mid-levels.  Remarkable PWAT on the KSC sounding this morning down to a rather 'astonishing' 1.09" which is quite low for July. However, if guidance has any credence this measurement was taken at the utterly driest point in time almost possible of the day in regard to the placement of the TUTT low. Some recovery should be going on during the course of the day even as I right with the 'anticipation' we might see a recovery back to not quite July 'normals' in some locations by late afternoon. Will watch for activity across Southeast Florida early on send outflows and mergers both north and west during early/mid afternoon prior to sea breezes setting up and moving inland so that the better clashing of boundaries would occur over parts of Central Florida.

With less early day activities..the peak of activity and the affect of the dry air aloft combined with colder upper level temperatures 'might' result in some strong/marginally severe storms come late afternoon especially interior parts of SW Florida northward toward Polk/Osceola/Okeechobee Counties possible into southern Lake County and even toward Orange/Seminole; but the better chances will be Central Osceola/Polk. The latest NAM is hitting hard on eastern Osceola oddly. There is also a chance some showers might be able to work into the Cape area off the ocean in association with 'said set up' though chance is quite low and remote.  One thing that would preclude any strong or even severe storms today is that guidance implies the pocket of cold air aloft might start to fill in with warmer air (aloft) as the day progresses which would put the breaks of strong storms as well as storm coverage altogether.

Sum total, today is an 'odd ball day at the park' in regard to the summer routine.

MONDAY:  Low will have moved west of the state and lifted north a bit. This will put a brake temporarily on the pattern that has been in place since the 3rd of July even (!) of easterly flow favoring the west and central portions (mostly).. namely though, leaving out the Barrier Islands of Brevard south toward the immediate beaches near Vero of the big rainfall scores. 

Chance of showers mainly but thunder possible 'sometime ' from mid-morning to as late as early to mid-afternoon along the east coast south of I-4 if the GFS holds correct (though other guidance has not been showing this chance will ride with it). In image above  activity now near the western Bahamas might be what will work into East Central sometime tomorrow. The upper low appears to be moving a bit slower than earlier models were showing and should that motion continue timing and placement both of this low is what might end up being the big factor tomorrow in regard to the better rain chance location as well as when that will be.


BEYOND:  Low confidence forecast but appears a  return to low coverage of activity, mainly interior with a few spurious times of coastal early morning showers of unknown days since timing of moisture shots remains nearly impossible to forecast beyond a day or two.

GFS implies a significant tropical wave to approach Florida the end of next weekend toward Monday..that will have to be watched as again, same issue applies. 

"Interior" Iso-Strong to Pulse Severe Storm(s) Possible after 5PM

SUNDAY MORNING Living Up to It's Name - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday overall so not much need to go into details as outlined in previous post.  

Late morning Cape Sounding shows 700mb/500mb temps running around 9C/-7.5C respectively with an extensive dry layer in the mid-levels. 

This drier layer should be able to fill in a bit after daytime heating sets the sea-breeze wheels in motion heading for a moisture convergence clash later today in the presence of moderate surface based instability.

 Latest satellite animation shows an 'apparent region' which might be considered an overall 'favorable zone' as shown based on 'eye ball extrapolation' (only).

  Steering today is a tad bit stronger from west to east north of Sebastian Inlet than previous days; however, given the drier air in mid levels and seeing how there iso other triggers aloft apart from localized mesoscale boundaries ,  storms could rapidly shoot up and just as quickly wane sending outflow boundaries in every which-way making for the firing up of another storm up to 60 miles from its parent source region. Therefore, exactly 'where any one storm will go' is nearly impossible to say. Central to East Central seems to be the favored spot by model consensus with a secondary area across SW Florida (not depicted)  

MONDAY: This day guidance shows a significant decrease of any activity but won't buy into it for now so will ride with persistence of last two days though steering might come closer to non-existent as surface to mid level Atlantic ridge axis lifts to Central Florida, meaning, any chances for the coast to see any rainfall at all might be completely out.

TUESDAY: GFS continues to show a rather random patch of moisture lifting north slowly around the ridge from   South Florida bringing increased rain chances for all regions south of I-4. Time will tell, and chances are it's over done but continuing to watch as GFS has been consistent in this regard. Coasts could use some rain south of DAB.

BEYOND: Ridge axis remains across Central-North Central with very light to non-existent steering winds and colder air aloft if the GFS guidance holds any credibility. Continued isolated activity late day...with iso-strong always a possibility. Other wise, remaining quite warm inland but with sea breezes initiating sooner in the day for less warm than of late in the areas within 5-10 miles of the coasts.

Chance of Isolated Showers - Early Afternoon / Strong Storm - Early Evening

"Warm Start to the Weekend - Cocoa Beach"

TODAY: Very little change from past few days over all. Temperature aloft at 500mb is a bit cold though but with continued warm temperatures surface into the mid levels with 'less than average' overall moisture content through the column. 

Satellite interpretation appears to hint at three potential boundaries laying dormant at time as will be depicted in the image below by the white dashed lines, and have not determined if those perhaps won't mix out during late morning into early afternoon heating. 

Regardless, things appear to be on track for another day similar to yesterday. The 4KM NAM, latest RAP, and HRRR are all showing 'scattered showers and storms' beginning as soon as late morning but suspect they might be over-down.  The 4KM NAM shows several respectable outflow boundaries from mid-afternoon activity all playing havoc by late afternoon -early evening as to where a strong storm would form, but the HRRR 'implies' it would be most likely 'somewhere Central / South Central ".

Given that there might be some boundaries across the Central and Southern Portions of the state (see below), sea breeze/lake breezes will form and see no strong reason why that wouldn't be the case given the trend of the past 2-3 days (the past two days have both seen a severe thunderstorm warning 'somewhere across the state') would ride with persistence for yet again a chance of a strong storm with small hail and/or winds gusting to 45 mph or more. 

Again though, most areas will not see rain today - but where it does rain it could be briefly  heavy. The biggest hazard as usual would be frequent to excessive lightning, mainly toward  6pm over the interior.

Image below shows storm near Lake 'Toho" which produced a highly visible funnel cloud on Friday.)

White dashed lines show possible boundaries which 'might' aid to ignite showers earlier today

SUNDAY-MONDAY: For now without much change being indicated until maybe late Monday or Monday night would go with persistence and call for 'similar in nature' type activity next two days.

TUESDAY: Indications the surface ridge across mainly South Central might lift north introduces a pattern change. GFS insists on increased chance of showers mainly near the east coast perhaps morning to mid-morning Tuesday moving inland during the day related to an inverted coastal trough lifting northward from the SE Florida coastal region (fingers crossed for the beach zones) but too far out in time , though it has been quite consistent on the possibility. 

Beyond Tuesday it looks more like a 'chances of showers near the coast in early morning hours migrating inland and toward the west coast late day' for several days with variations in that theme fora solid week. Any morning activity if so, very isolated.

Next 'significant'' over all change in the scheme of things is not even being hinted at until around the July 22nd time frame - well out of reach of reason and reason to rely on.

Chance of Isolated Stronger Storm Mainly Interior South Central - South: No Bacon Lovers

Towering Rain and Thunderstorms over the Banana River and Merritt Island
Sunday sent Down Lightning   within 1 1/2 miles of  beach goers in broad day light

TODAY: Slight chance of a few isolated strong storms mainly South and South Central Portions of the state. 

Conditions are a bit different today from yesterday. Per morning KSC sounding the Covenctive Temperature is 88F with 500mb temps running about 1-2 degrees cooler than past days increasing mid level lapse rates but barely. 700MB was at 10C which is quite warm. Suspect earlier iniation will stabilize those areas prior to sea breeze convergence. Activity most likely to be 'strong' would be from the effective Lake-Sea Breeze boundary mergers (South Florida) where coldest air aloft reside and across parts of Central later in the day when outflow boundaries combine with sea breeze/lake breeze convergences into parts of South Central mainly near to south of I-4.

Greatest threat as usual is dangerous cloud to ground (CG) lightning that occurs outside of (ahead or behind) the main precip cores like as what was occurring yesterday along the beaches of Central/North Brevard county. 

In the image above lightning was occurring within 1- 1 1/2 miles of beach goers while the sun was still blazing. Not a pleasant thought should a random bolt find it's way to unsuspecting sun bathers - someone could have received more than a 'sun burn'. in that situation.

Apart from the lightning threat, chance of strong wind gusts near the heaviest storms especially over the interior of South Florida and later in the day Eastern to Central parts of South Central where it is also cooler aloft but not as cool as over South Florida.

One difference today from yesterday is that the lower levels of the atmosphere yesterday had uniformly S-SSW winds from surface through the next 6000 ft up  the column which was  nearly parallel to the prevailing SSE-SE winds of the sea breeze and a bit stronger than today preventing what could have been better low level convergence to occur along surface boundaries. Those winds might not be quite as strong today, but do no have access to KSC Profiler data this morning to see if that is the case again.   Additionally, the KSC sounding came in late yesterday with a a convective temperature of 95F which might have explained why all the activity diminished so rapidly late day outside of where the best boundary mergers were still occurring. Cannot say if all that will be the case again today.

TUESDAY:  As usual, day by day situation at hand - though it appears tomorrow things will begin to wain both in coverage and intensity as the surface Atlantic ridge axis works to Central Florida with less overall atmospheric moisture to work with coupled with warmer air aloft. This leads to more isolated late day activity over the interior portions of the state as well as more heat from less cloud cover and rain cooled air. Expecting solid July temperatures in the mid 90Fs in many locations away from the modifying  effects of the afternoon sea breezes.

BEYOND: Not much change. if any. foreseen so far for many days to come - too far out in time to bother speculating over at this point.

Increased Shower /Storm Coverage - 'Strongest' Late Afternoon toward 7PM

Storm 'Skirts'  West of Port Canaveral Tuesday Evening

 TODAY: Looks like a near 'classic' active summer type day   at least in terms of model guidance coupled with the morning KSC Sounding sampling of the local environment which likely is representative of most all of Central Florida.

Temperature and humidity running along the expected norms with early cloud development providing for some shade. East and west coast sea breezes will form but the west coast boundary should make a head start tracking east   much more quickly than the other way around given winds just about the deck to near the top of the height of the sea breezes is west to east at around 15kts  though winds aloft are average about 8-10kts for storm motion apart from propotagin outflows along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Any showers that form along the sea breezes earlier in the day will send out boundaries after they collapse and from there on out it will be a matter of Storm Stratego and who happens to be in the range of fire.

Given that 700MB temps are running a bit below 'usual' near 5C and 500MB temperatures are also running just a tad cool, could be some locally strong storms late today after peak heating has occurred and boundary interactions are multiplied which aids   lift in areas that have not been 'worked over' prior from either earlier showers or rain cooled out flows. 

Showers could well form along either sea breeze today given that the convective temperature is 87F and there is no  cap  with the PWAT up to 2.02" . (Precipitable water values). 

Slow storm motions with prorogation  back to the east coast and north/south along either sea breeze front  toward to after dark could mean some locations will possibly accumulate a large rainfall total over 1.5"   but exactly 'where' is hard to say. Seems most likely East South Central to East Central though - near the I-95 strip toward even US1 and near Okeechobee as well.  Storms could most likely move offshore with a preserved integrity from Central Volusia and north . Not all locations off course will see rain today..it's all in the cards and what hand one has drawn to see how the dominoes will fall and play out which is typical summer fanfare.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: As is typical for summer patterns with no definitive upper level energy maxima or stronger upper level winds to note as   enhancing mechanisms for storm strength - yea  nary even much change in temperatures aloft,  even they could be just as active to not quite as active, might   evolve   from whatever results from out of the previous day in regard to where any boundaries are laid out. Thus, more of the same into the weekend, but each day will play out differently.

BEYOND: Much of the same with some variations in the routine beginning of next week but possibly coming right back to more of the same toward the middle of the week as the surface to mid-level ridge axis now near Far South Florida oscillates toward South Central or even Central and then back south again.

Greater Rainfall Coverage Today - 'Normal' Thunderstorm Patterns to arrive Tuesday

On This Day (June 26),  2014
Cocoa, Florida

TODAY: Outside of a weak disturbance moving SSW 'apparently' toward East Central Florida earlier this morning and any effect it might (or will not have) near the Brevard Coast little has changed in the overall scheme of things other than some increased moisture. All guidance concurs for an increase in coverage today for many locations over the interior counties almost state wide.  Looks like a day of what we would expect to see this time of year as opposed to   days  of rather meager coverage lately  (granted, if one has been impacted by a storm  it makes little difference to them).

MONDAY: Decreasing coverage as the overall wind fields aloft do not change significantly enough to make much of a difference but  moisture availability does decrease.

TUESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND: The long -heralded break down of the pesky Senora Heat Ridge which manifested over two weeks ago over the Western U.S. and was compressed eastward (aloft) will finally see its end of days in regard to the influence it's had over Florida.

Several rounds of upper level troughs passing near and south of Canadian Border and  across the Northeast states will : 

 June 26 , 2014 - Cape Canaveral

 

(1.) result in that ridging to retreat back to where it belongs (out West !!) but also;

(2)  break down the persistent Atlantic (Bermuda) high that has resulted in storm activity moving to the west side of the state or nearly not at all. 

The Western Flank of the Atlantic Ridge axis will shift east of the state (in general) and 'sift' south as well...(which affects the lowest levels of the atmosphere) while the retrogression of the  Senora Heat Ridge   back West to where it belongs affects the upper levels in regard to steering and warmer air aloft.

The sum total of those two changes will be more toughing over the Eastern United States. Though not necessarily directly over the state - these changes in both regards will allow both sea breezes to not only work their magic in regard to storm activity but also point the mid-upper level winds  toward the Florida East Coast (especially north of West Palm Beach - Ft Pierce areas). 

Not a guarantee all locations will 'then see rainfall' as a result, as the steering still will be rather weak. 

Thus, from near Indian River County and north to JAX beginning Tuesday into next weekend (at least) some of the rainfall thirsty regions of Southern Volusia south through Indian River or even Martin / St. Lucie (at times) at the immediate coasts will finally get a chance to see some rainfall / thunderstorms.  

Summer time like thunderstorm pattern Florida is 'famous' for  finally arrives !

Side bar: This near exact same pattern evolved last year in regard to the Ridges and their locations which left much of the East Coast without storm activity as well until the end of June. Once the pattern changed the stage was set for a large portion of the summer patterns to run its course outside of any 'would be' tropical influences.

Chance of Stronger Storms Mainly Eastern South Centra l- Parts of South Florida

"Saturday Morning" - Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY: Last day of higher rain threat chances and storms for quite some time to come (at least until  later next week) for most areas.  

Morning KSC sounding reveals 500MB temperature has dropped another degree (locally) from yesterday while 700mb temperatures maybe another 1/2 -1 F degree. It is in the 'rather cold' range and sufficient for production of rather strong surface wind gusts in or near the result of  bigger/taller storm updrafts today.

There were many reports yesterday between the 38 - 55mph wind range with two isolated severe cat winds reported . In general, the winds reported were best-guess estimates which is about the best one can hope for in many cases, or were readings from gauges that might not always be right at the ground level.

Either way, surface "cold front' is now across a line from near St. Augustine on the east coast to near  Cross City on the west coast, at least as it appears per surface wind observations tough the real 'push' still lags back up in Central Georgia where models are showing the boundary to be. Satellite imagery indeed shows the 'active functional part' of the front where convergence is still going on along it to be across or near Southern Georgia despite the northerly surface wind observations across far North Florida which might be more of a reflection of an outflow boundary from a line of severe storms that was approaching that area near sunset last night.  

Appears the latest HRRR run has over - estimated what is now going on across South Central which is pretty much nothing other than a patch of light rain so will discard that for early day activities. On the other hand, most of what could occur today will depend on where the surface boundary is actually located and not sure model guidance has a respectable handle on it. Best instability should be found today however South of I-10 and especially from near I-4 or from Daytona Beach to Brooksville and south to start the day . Upper level energy again in place today as a trigger.

The next consideration is whether a sea breeze will be able to form today. Surface pressure gradient does not appear quite as strong today but winds just above remain too strong to permit it to occur. Given the KSC sounding would think it would be possible for a very shallow boundary to form and perhaps work just to the coast but make no inland penetration at all if so.

Following HRRR trends, The RAP..and 4KM projections..and given the location of what appears might be the true surface boundary and where day time heating might have it's greatest chance to have the most effect, suspect that based on southern movement of the boundary into mid-afternoon to near Dead Central Florida by around 2-3PM if not earlier, the strongest storms might occur South Central and parts of South Florida as far south as even St Lucie County region later in the day or even Martin.

Storm motion will be from the WNW for the most part outside of boundary propagation and interactions and also be a bit slower in forward speed than yesterday. Rainfall totals then might be a bit larger today in those locations that per chance happen to be under a real big rain producer that is moving slowly.

As usual, being it's a weekend, beach goers will need to be extra attentive to the northern to western skies today. While on the beach itself it is often impossible to hear thunder at all until a storm is already so close that one has been subject to a lightning strike without even being aware of it unless it has been actually observed from a distance.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain showers with stronger ENE -NE winds . Though the front will likely clear all but maybe the Florida Keys before washing out by mid-day..moisture seems to remain sufficient enough for spotty polka dot like showers to stream by  accompanied by surface winds gusting to over 20 mph. Not such a great boating day but great for wind or para-surfing.

BEYOND ? : Mainly dry Monday through Wednesday at least. Model guidance diverges between model runs and model types with varying solutions on a run to run basis. This was anticipated per the MLB Forecast Discussion and in deed is what is occurring. The overall scheme of things appears to be a wet period coming up toward the end of next week, but the GFS is flailing it's arms up in surrender and thus far is deeming utterly useless even when compared with other model guidance. Tis the 'wet season'...and would hate to see it go to waste. Could we be in for a prolonged dry spell even in Late June? Shudder the thought !

Strong Storm Wind Gusts / Frequent Lightning Possible This Afternoon

Cape Canaveral Great Blue Heron  at Sunrise

TODAY: Upper level disturbance over North Florida analyzed by all model guidance is showing to drop south and east into Central Florida where it will mostly remain the rest of the day.

Morning KSC sounding shows the long anticipated 'colder air aloft' heralded to come several days (blogs) ago has arrived with 700mb temperatures running about 2 - 2 1/2C colder than yesterday and 500mb at 20,000 feet about 3 degrees colder than has been for quite some time. Cold air aloft, coupled with sufficient day time heating (mostly south of line running from near Mims - North Side of Tampa Bay) should make for better low level lapse rates as well.  Like yesterday there will not be  an east coast sea-breeze  which means the normal 'summer storm regime' will not be the case for today atmospheric festivities. Moisture depth has increased and Lifted Condensation Level's are already running rather low which makes for an easy  initiation with a convective temperature on the sounding of 90F for cumulus clouds and/or even a quick passing rain shower.  

Though the majority of 'rain causing coverage' will be of the shower variety, thunderstorms will indeed form today (or should at least) ..and with winds not far above the deck near 30 knts..could get rather 'breezy' to very gusty near heavier rain showers (even if one avoids the actual rain altogether). Chance of some potent lightning strikes , like yesterday, will also complete the package.
Winds could gust to 50-plus by some heavier activity around mid-afternoon or so toward parts of South Central as it now appears.

Rainfall might end a bit earlier today than it did in some locations other than down toward South Florida but cloudy skies would remain.

Strong storms will also be possible toward the Panhandle and/or JAX area late day or early evening

SATURDAY: Another and the last of short wave  disturbances moves down the state slowly . Tomorrow looks like a variation of today but guidance is showing better storm chances with both a low and mid-level trough axis aiding in convergence to be in place. Strong storms again possible this day with a marginal severe risk in the cards (though that is not per 'official outlets' namely The Storm Prediction Center) but will watch to see if the hedge their bets and up the ante from 'General Thunderstorms" in later forecasts.

BEYOND: COLD FRONT (gasp !) to move through all the state by Sunday's end ..but will clear all of Central by Sunday afternoon.  After perhaps some showers earelir (Central) easterly to ENE surface winds to increase and dry out the atmosphere for all but parts of South Central and South. Behind this arctic plummet of boundaries temperatures will recoil down toward seasonal norms overall, but morning lows will remain up at the coast with east winds coming off of low 80F ocean water temperatures.

 LATE SUNDAY - TUESDAY; These days for Central Florida look to be the days of the least likely chance of it raining at all. Breezy perhaps a bit late Sunday and/or Monday near the East Coast and on the beaches but tapering off into Tuesday and become 'seasonal' in direction in strength going into Wednesday.

EXTENDED: GFS  (and word has it) other Models are coming into a general agreement of the chances of  increasing rain/thunderstorm activity initially in the interior on Wednesday and Thursday but if the cards fall right (or wrong) rain chances might increase significantly for almost anywhere come next weekend and well into the following week for a variety of reasons. The last run of the GFS implied a 'tropical connection' from the Western Caribbean could add some boast to the the moisture levels in the atmosphere with a southerly flow regime, but that is too far out in time to cater to as of  now but worth watching.