Potential For Near Record Warm Min or Max Temperatures Next Week

"Jake" Near the Jetty Last Year This Date

FOLLOW UP: Up to record rainfall totals the other day. The area with the overall highest totals with the last 'rain event' ended up being the Brevard County area. A sampling of some rainfall totals can be seen below , accompanied by the radar estimates.

Melbourne Radar : Rainfall Storm Precipitation Totals

CoCoRHaS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network)Input by Participants around the state and accompanying rainfall total range reported
from a graphic perspective

Totals reported in by local participants in the CoCoRHaS program

TODAY : Mostly Sunny and pleasant with temperatures running above seasonal 'norms'. Light east wind in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: A bit warmer all areas as wind becomes south to southwest ahead of the next 'cool front' . Highs Saturday in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs. Front is on the way for the midnight hours for Central Florida.

SUNDAY: Front to pass through Central Florida around midnight. Wind to shift to NW -N and eventually NNE-NE by daybreak or within a few hours after day break providing modification (rising dew point temperatures) rather quickly post- frontal passage (fropa). Lows interior Sunday morning in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs with warmest temperatures from the Cape South (near 58-60F Canaveral to lower 70Fs South Florida). Sunday will see a a bit breezier at first from the ENE to E but decreasing wind later in the day with highs generally in the mid 70Fs (warmer south of Lake "O").

The front is expected to make it as far as South Florida before losing all identity.

MONDAY: High pressure well to the north will quickly move off the east coast and easterly flow will shift to southeast to south-southeast. Highs in the interior in lower 80Fs and closer to  upper 70Fs to near 80F near the coastline. Rainfree.

TUESDAY: Even warmer all areas Tuesday morning. Might see near record warm minimums this day and / or on Wednesday with interior temperatures into the lower end of the mid 80Fs. Rain free.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing moisture ahead of next front with potential for 'near record' highs , though rather sketchy on that one as of now.  Looks like there might be an onset of more cloud cover to preclude that from occurring due to lower - mid level moisture convergence as the west coast sea breeze works over toward the east coast, with even a chance of showers south of Brevard Closer to the east coast.  

THURSDAY: Next front to go through with a repeat performance of the one to come overnight Saturday into Sunday but with even less impact in the temperatures. 

From NEXT Friday on out there is showing nothing but mainly light easterly flow with lows in the 60Fs and highs in the mid-upper 70Fs for several days on end. What occurs after that is too far out to say. Would watch for the remnant boundary to be lifted back north after several days, however, which 'might' result in another 'rain event' of sorts..or maybe not. Because it is so far out in time the guidance shifts around on what will occur about 5 days later (or so) and now we are nearly two weeks out and beyond forecast-ability (with any assured accuracy).

IN SUMMARY: The chances of another ' sig cool down' is starting to wane with every passing week now. Days are getting longer and before we know it Daylight Savings time will be at hand (March 12) . Not that that means anything. Good one or two 'dayers' of a cool down can still occur well through March and into early April but they are, for the most part,  short lived.

High Rain Chance Wednesday Could be in The Making

Sparkling Seas Tuesday Morning

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy all day with light wind. Generally no rain except the Western to Central Panhandle where some showers and thunder could occur. 

TONIGHT: Complex upper level pattern with  a low at an anomalously low latitude (Eastern Gulf) to cross across parts of South Florida going into Wednesday late in the day. At least one if not two surface reflections of this low pressure area could form around the state, possibly along Southwest Florida coast and another somewhere over the Gulf Stream waters of the east coast south of the Cape. Temperatures aloft are to be quite cold which be a red flag alert for severe weather;  however, overall lapse rates and associated instability at the surface and lack of wind shear looks to result in minimal impact for what could have been a rather 'strong storm event' if a few factors had aligned differently. 

WEDNESDAY: Given the position of the low however, and the jet stream more or less even to the south of most of the state, the overall consensus at this time point to  mainly a rain event (for some areas) with thunder possible 'aloft' (in cloud-cloud to in-cloud lightning mainly).  There might be some small hail briefly of 'below severe size' should a strong storm be able to form but for the most part it looks mainly like   high rain chances beginning along the west coast  spreading to east and working from south to north by late morning. Some showers might be able to evolve before or near day break along the east coast south of the Cape and press ashore as well as a prelude to the day's orchestration. The prevailing wind direction most of the day will be from the ESE-SE- to eventually south whereas upper level steering mainly will be from the southwest for any stronger activity.

THURSDAY: Hard to say exactly when rain chances will end other than it looks like the higher end rain chances will end sometime before midnight (if not much sooner) with lingering activity always possible into mid-day Thursday. This part of the forecast is far less certain. But be advised: 

The NAM model indicates potential rainfall totals up to between 2-4" in very localized areas especially just in from the east coast from  Brevard County and south, likely due to a slightly warm air advection pattern at low levels coming in off the Gulf Stream waters resulting in some surface based instability. Suspect this is overdone though and might be able to cut those numbers in half. We'll be able to see what comes about though as this is a rather 'tight' situation to evolve  and bears watching for possibly 'flood watch criteria (somewhere)' should   a  locally energized pattern set up. 

Such events are very difficult to foresee in advance as it is and given the very unusual circumstances forthcoming in regard to the overall synoptic upper level pattern that is to evolve coupled with varying degrees of uncertainty with where any specific necessary dynamics will end up being located (  including potential training affects or rain storms repeatedly over any given area) only makes the rainfall total part of the forecast all the more difficult to put a finger on

In regard to temperatures it will mainly be cooler due to rainfall and cloud cover, but no 'cold front' will be blasting through once this system passes. No, temperatures will be much more pleasant Thursday with a cold front still to approach  but more so Friday and Saturday.


FRIDAY: This day looks rain free and rather nice as the low pressure assembly line moves out further east over the Atlantic. A cold front on the approach however for Saturday Night.

SATURDAY: If you want a nicer weekend day in regard to warm air, this would be the day. Highs in the lower to possibly mid 80Fs (inland) as front approaches from the northwest. Some clouds around but no rain is foreseen.

SUNDAY: Front to pass down the state overnight Saturday night. Sunday to be a good 10F degrees cooler for the most part than the day before but dry with light wind. Slowly modifying temperatures going toward Tuesday of next week with no cold blasts yet foreseen even in the far off land of the distant future . Looks like we might be 'good' from 'cold air' at least into the first week of March if not longer (at least in terms of how cold it has got this year, this upcoming cool spell will but take is to around seasonal norms for about two days).

Remote Chance of Strong Storm/Near Record Highs - Tuesday/Wednesday

A Particularly Peculiar Situation  (PPS) Over Cocoa Beach Pier Friday Morning

TODAY: Gradual air mass modification continues with light easterly winds and not much in clouds. All in all a nicer day than yesterday - less cool and more comfortable for the natives on the beach.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, wind was to become  more southeast Monday evening to south and eventually SSW into late morning on Tuesday. This outlook is still on track.  Appears the east coast sea breeze will make an attempt to develop and press inland, but if so will make little progress if any. Chance of low cloud cover and/or fog in the morning but will rapidly burn out into mid-morning in areas where it might be able to form.

The bigger issue is the potential for showers and/or even a thunderstorm (possibly strong) to occur mainly east of the Orlando longitude and closer toward I-95 and east somewhere from East-Central Volusia south toward Indian River County. For now will target in on Brevard County as reference region.
Convergence near the east coast coupled with good low level lapse rates (localized upward forcing) in the presence of rather cold air aloft could make for a storm akin to a 'stronger type-summer storm' siutation coupled with a little help from wind aloft. All in all, if the tell-tale signs being advertised by the NAM bear merit, could call for small hail and maybe winds gusts near 50mph. 

Overall, the situation might be one of those Port St John to far southern Volusia County situations for a stronger storm. On the other hand, the NAM has a preponderance to over-hype which has been implying this chance. The other option might be for a broader range of rain showers and larger area of potential general thunder. Either way...

WEDNESDAY: Less chance of rain this day with continued southwest wind. This is the day that for now appears might approach 'near record highs' for the date. I do not know what the record high is for the various locations of East Central, but if guidance implies an 83-84F, chances are it could be even warmer especially from near Vero Beach and north toward Titusville.

THURSDAY: The front that was thought to come through by early this day is now slated for after sunset. Thus, another warm day with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs wiith a west to WNW wind in the 10-15 mph range during mid-afternoon, especially south of I-4 . There is a chance of seeing some rain immediately either during or after frontal passage late Thursday toward evening along the east coast, otherwise mainly only some cloud cover.  The front will come down almost straight from the north to be followed by rapid turn to NE and eventually ENE wind; as such, the East Coast will be spared  much in the cold air department with return flow off the Atlantic.

FRIDAY: Lows in the upper 50Fs to near 60F Brevard and south but cooler inland and even cooler yet still further north. Either way, nothing unusual.

BEYOND: Moderating temperatures to near normal values as another front will slide by perhaps late weekend, but won't go into this one for now. It appears whatever the next front will do will have even less affect than the previous one late Thursday with an even less chance of rain.

IN SUMMARY: Beyond next weekend it appears Central/South Florida is 'out of the woods' in the Cold Air Department up through Mid - February. 

Near Normal To Above Normal Temperature Tuesday - Wednesday

Saturday Shrimping off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: A 'frontal boundary' side-winding down the state with little fanfare other than some increased clouds from Brevard County line and north which might work south, but mostly noted by wind direction change and perhaps a shower near the east coast mainly from near Melbourne Beach and North. Radar is showing some showers off shore heading toward the coast (below image) but skeptical that they'll make it west of the western edge of the Gulf Stream waters offhore to our east without collapsing over the cooler immediate coastal shelf waters. But who's to say. In any-case, could see a few more clouds as the day wears on  , and even if the rain showers themselves do not make it to the coast proper, still might experience an uptick in the wind from Northeast direction sometime after the 2-3:30pm time frame.  

SUNDAY: Though some cloud cover might persist early morning mainly north half of state the overall 'non-event' will be also non-effectual in regard to impact to activities and temperature . Sunday might be a bit cooler than today though overall, but close to normal. If there is to be any showers, they'd be gone by noon. Sunday won't be quite as warm as today at the beaches however. and a weak coastal trough will close slightly and move off north and east, bring northerly wind down it's back side on the way out..though mainly only for Sunday through mid-day Monday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind gradually to swing around to east then southeast Monday into Monday night and become more south to southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like these days will see highs in the lower 80Fs inland, and maybe some middle 80Fs here and there but remain dry.

THURSDAY: Next front to come through, and for now looks like it will pass through dry south of I4 but could easily change.

BEYOND: So far nothing too unusual  is showing up on the long range to beyond in regard to temperature 'EXTREMES"...not to say it couldn't quite 'cold' again in the next two weeks, but so far that does not appear will be the case for any more than about 36 hours. 

No severe weather in the next week. By around next Saturday is where some pretty big inconsistencies come into play in regard to the GFS vs. The Climate Model in how to handle an upper trough to build down the U.S. East Coast. The GFS almost tries to pinch off a low near Florida, while other models do not. Either way..  other than today (and the chance is very slim) and maybe around next Thursday or Friday..it will be dry, normal temperatures ingeneral.. and relatively uneventful. Plenty of front rows seats available, but no show.

Cold, Wet Sunday - Extended Stay through Wednesday ...Storms in February?

Last year Near This Date

TODAY: Rather cool with decreasing sun and increasing clouds. Abundant cloud cover harvested over the Gulf in association with an upper level disturbance to graze across Florida early Sunday through late afternoon .  Temperatures rather cool though some sunny breaks always possible now and then through sunset to add a step to the day and some warmth, but not in all areas. South to Central will fair the best for today in regard to sun and warmer.

OVERNIGHT-SUNDAY:  Guidance very consistent for several days now on a chance of rain with cold air aloft to drag some of that down to the surface. Latest NAM and not quite so much the GFS models show highs in the low end of the mid 50Fs possibly cooler toward the 48F-50F range where cloud cover and/or rain might fall. 

Rain will generally work from west to east reaching east locations of North Central and Central sometime after 2AM - 5AM. Rain chances and or cloud cover continues until early afternoon Central, and later down to South Florida. Highs again well below climatological norms. Guessing for Central it will end from west to east from late morning and moving off the east coast around the 1PM time frame though clouds might persist until dark. South Florida the rain will be in place possibly until dark-time.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind to pick up a bit from the NW by Monday  but and begin to decrease into Tuesday. So far, appears skies not an issue but watching for high cirrus clouds to be problematic. So will see on that one. Morning lows not showing anything too unusual (mainly mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs immediate east coast and south); it's the afternoon highs that stay well below par for the course, barely reaching 60F on Monday and lower to mid 60Fs Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Back to normal, pleasant and continued dry with light wind.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Next weekend looks to be everything this weekend won't be.

BEYOND: Entering into February, the leaves begin to turn in due time.  GFS off and on and more so the CFSV2 long range climate model is showing 1, 2, now 3 'potential 'weather events' spaced from 7 -10 days apart from each other during the month. However, there is no consistency in the signal thus far, and will change on a daily basis. Whether more severe weather events will be on the way cannot be stated with any certainty; however, February has been known historically to be a big month for severe weather in Florida going into Mid- March (though not every year obviously).

All in all, looks like this upcoming 'cold weather outbreak' will be our true real taste of winter's extended stay...out much beyond mid February though it can get cold again, and does...the cold events begin to get shorter in length, and more spaced apart.

Enhanced Risk of Severe Potential Remains Real Late Sunday

Uprooted Tree Remains Post-Matthew from October - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Warmer and a bit muggier today as advertised with developing S-SW wind this afternoon. High in the lower 80Fs mostly though some areas might see a mid-80F. Any rain/storms would remain north of I-4. 

Meanwhile. the first severe weather threat period moves in across the Panhandle region mainly from Tallahassee and west. A few tornado warnings are already on the horn further west .

Radar simulations from the HRRR model  indicate the chance for a high end tornado near Pensacola toward Panama City area of possible EF3 strength. (that  is only a forecast, but the 'threat' is real), but that is from only one run (which is done hourly) from one short term model. On the other hand, other guidance is not nearly as menacing. Regardless, an enhanced severe threat remains with the activity projected to impact that area late morning hours toward noon time.

SUNDAY: Nice start to the day with increasing SW. The next episode of severe enters the picture first again toward the Panhandle sometime late morning, possibly a bit further east than round one, which then continues to press east and expand southward along what appears would be a bit of a broken, QLCS squall line.

As being noted in varying models, timing remains an issue as to when North Central to Central Direct will be impacted. There appears to be agreement though, that some kind of a squall line type formation will develop early to mid afternoon from near JAX SSW to west of Tampa which will then strengthen and expand southward into near sunset; however, not all focus should be on the line if it were to develop. 

Some guidance also indicates discrete , isolated storm cells forming acorss 'anywhere' Central Florida after 4pm toward dark and moving off the east coast. Though small and quick moving if so, such activity in the given situation can produce a quick tornado and//or strong wind gusts.

As anticipated a low level jet coupled with a 500mb (as opposed to 300mb) jet streak well aloft (500mb is lower in the atmosphere) along with a little bit of directional shear will result in bulk shear (speed shear plus directional shear) which would abet in resultant rapid updraft formation. There will be sufficient instability from day time heating coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60Fs (moisture) to add to the mix. These factors along with low level helicity values in the 200/300 m2/sec2, which is like a cork screwing horizontal wind field racing parallel to the ground will lay down the framework for the Tornado Threat Welcome Mat  ....   as has not been seen in this area for quite a while in regard to potentiality. 

Given the important relevance of this upcoming 'situation' have refrained from making a personal map of where activity might occur and left it up to what is readily available. "IF" I had made a note it 'will mention' that just because areas south of the red hatched (see below) are not in there, the risk for tornado threat remains all the way down the state. Those areas are almost guaranteed any mode of weather will occur during the overnight hours, especially south of Vero Beach.

The Storm Prediction Center has place all of North Central in a 

HATCHED ENHANCED RISK which means a 10% greater risk

 for a significant severe weather event anywhere within 25 NM 

of any given point.

 Enhanced includes EF2 (or higher) tornado strength, straight line winds of 74 mph or greater, or large hail. The greatest threat (in the bloggers opinion only) appears would be wind as noted in previous post up to almost 90MPH , though said wind would be extremely isolated, and/or a tornado. 

Some models (the ones that include this parameter) show 'updraft helicity swats  ' which indicate a rotating updraft (of supercell thunderstorm nature). 
Will not include in the post as those are only a general indication and change , sometimes significantly, in both intensity of the activity as well as location from run to run.

As such, this means that the 4KM - NAM model , for instance, has consistently indicated a few 'particularly nasty storms' based on that parameter alone from near Orlando/Canaveral in general and further north, with the strongest activity north of a line from Brooksville toward Ormond Beach. 

Threat period from far North Central southward toward the Vero Beach area best guess runs from around 3PM (north) to after 10PM (Vero Beach). Some areas as inferred earlier might see activity more than once if activity begins to erupt ahead of the prefrontal broken line, which would be prior to dark. Suspect that the actual organized area, for example, will reach a line from near Titusville toward Sarasota between 8:30pm - 10:00pm but it could be sooner. Other pre-line activity would be prior to or even during sunset time frame.

This does look more now like a 'live coverage' 

situation for local TV Channel networks.

BEYOND: Monday will be breezy with westerly wind, some cloud cover and cooler with the coldest air to arrive Tuesday through Wednesday morning as wind begins to decrease.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Rapid turn around Wednesday. Very cool in the morning (upper 40Fs inland to lower-mid 50Fs near coast) with a southerly flow develop late morning , sending highs into the upper 70Fs to near 80F in the afternoon as the next front approaches.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD: The GFS and the CFSV2 are trending on more of a prolonged cool down period, as in, " WINTER PHASE II  ". 

 Not only cooler, but a few episodes of 'much cooler'. 

For just how long it will go on is questionable and the entire period (into mid-February) would not be cool to cold constantly. Regardless, winter isn't over yet.  The GFS has hinted on a few runs of near freezing to freezing temperatures south of Orlando but mostly indicates mid-upper 30F in the colder areas if such a situation were to develop. This is all well out of range of foreast accuracy anyway, only to say, 'don't be surprised' if local forecasts begin to allude to more chilly weather on tap. 

Severe Weather Threat Increased for Sunday/Sunday Night

Sunrise Wednesday Morning - (Sunset Image at End of Post For Same Day)

TODAY-SATURDAY: Continued above normal temperatures with light wind today through Friday.

By Friday wind becomes a bit more Southerly, continued warm

By Saturday afternoon things now become sketchy . Chances of shower/storms (if possible) appears would be restricted to north of I-4. Elsewhere, increasing high clouds.

SUNDAY: Big Day of Questions: Latest GFS model overnight run (and continuity from previous post) continues to advertise the risk of a squall line moving across the state.

The  factors most contributing to the risk would be strong mid-upper level winds of 90Kts (mainly north half of state), with a 500mb 'jet' of near 90knts  with up to 30kts of bulk shear contribuiting even in the lowest 2000 ft from surface to 925mb, with higher amounts of shear up through the column. 

Consider, that when we have thunderstorms, sometimes strong in the summer, there is normal NO shear at all.

Additionally, at least early on, there would be Convective Available Potential Energy between 800-1200 J/kg2 (though the GFS might be underscoring this value). Helicity values in the 200m2/s2 don't hurt, but are not particularly of great concern , but could contribute to brief tornadic spin ups (that rather weak as far as tornadoes are concerned)

Factors that would prevent this 'possible event' from reaching a solid MDT RISK DAY is poor mid-level lapse rates and directional wind shear values mostly having passed east of the state before other factors that do contribute come together, mainly after dark Sunday evening.

As a result, and given that there is still a few more days to monitor and many more model runs to monitor as Sunday draws closer, this situation does bear close, scrutinous monitoring.

As seen below, for purposes only, the highest risk for the strongest Category of severe levels in the winds mostly appears would be All of North Central to northern parts of South Central Florida.

Further south , however, has some other factors which 'could have' brought that region into greater threat but will leave well enough alone. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed all of North Central in a 'Substantial Severe" watching mode. 

Thus, Sunday might evolve into being a MODERATE RISK DAY. Rare for Florida.
Greatest threat appears to be high end severe straight line winds, quick and difficult to warn for tornado spin ups , especially if this ends up being a QLCS SQUALL LINE, with broken line segments.

Expect that if nothing else changes, this will be one of those weather events where TV CHANNELS will be doing continuous LIVE COVERAGE. 

BEYOND: Breezy on Monday and cloudy. Cooler but not cold, possible light rain though clouds seem to be prevalent mode. Temperatures running near normal.

EVEN YET: As noted in previous post, if conditions line up this time for one SEVERE EVENT, the chance that more could follow is always a potential. 

The Latest GFS does show not only one but TWO possible events up to the first week of February. The latest of all might be a humdinger but given how far out in time that is, and that it was only of the latest run - there is no continuity so would discard ..and revisit in about a week.

YET EVEN STILL: GFS continues to show a big but short lived 'COLD EVENT" - though the model does seem to over exaggerate cold events beyond Day 7, so will disregard. Point being, not time to put away the mitts, scarves, and snow shovels.

Sunset Wednesday Evening

Warmer Yet Still To Saturday - Severe Sunday Night?

Start of a New Work Week - Sunrise Cape Canaveral

TODAY-SATURDAY: More of the same, more or less, with an above normal temperature regime with an increasingly decreasing chance of shallow, low topped ocean showers near the coast during the overnight to early morning hours as wind becomes progressively southerly come Friday into Saturday. Though, up until that time, a brief sprinkle is possible -- that chance will wane.

Warmest afternoon temperatures inland away from the cooling affect of the near shore waters, with highs in the upper 70Fs to just near 80F or so, while inland highs will reach the lower 80Fs to lower range of mid-80Fs.

BY FRIDAY, even the east coast will begin to get in on the warmer afternoons as well with comfortably cool mornings with a SSW-SW wind developing around this time frame.

SATURDAY: The latest GFS model has been 'Implying" (in varying degrees with each 6 hour run) that there will be the potential for a squall line to form along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front moving from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico, with the better chance of any affected area being near to north of I-4. 

On the other hand, the latest run implies that risk could cover the length of the peninsula.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Given the POTENTIAL (which as of this time is based only on the latest model run and will likely change around with time)  will at least mention the chance of a Quasi-linear Convective System (QLCS) to cross the state beginning after sunset Sunday night to pass to the east coast sometime after 2-3AM  Monday  morning. 

Though factors/timing are not lining up which would maximize strength, namely in the wind fields and instability (which will be greatly limited ), might expect that there might be more than is being implied. Overall, as being an overnight situation based on current timing , bulk shear in the mid levels might be being 'under estimated' in the model which would compensate for lack of more instability.

Either way, given the latest , might be seeing a Severe Thunderstorm watch, if not Tornado watch issued for parts or all of the state Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (first panhandle/north Florida) then further south - though there's still plenty of monitoring time to see what evolves. 

PRIOR to that last model run, thinking (on this end) was for a good chance of rain accompanied with some gusty wind and maybe severe in the panhandle region through the Big Bend (only).  


TUESDAY ON: Regardless, post frontal passage shows west wind for a good two days to follow with temperatures near to just below 'normal'. Not real cold, just cool , ranging through the 50s/60Fs to near 70F for lows / highs respectively.

BEYOND YET STILL: Winter isn't over yet. We could still see some colder spells of several consecutive days as the GFS model and the CFSV2 models are implying, even out to mid-February.  Will also watch for yet another severe potential (if this upcoming situation evolves into one). Such circumstances tend to come in twos or threes spread out from 7-10 days apart from each other, though this year is not an El Nino year which is when that kind of set up might evolve in greater likelihood.

Increase Clouds, Rain. Storm Chances : Brrr-acious Saturday Thru Monday Morning

The "Observation" Tower Reflects the Calm Nature of Friday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Gorgeous start to the day but changes   in the making . are on the way to the Northern and Central Peninsula as we speak / read. A simple glance at radar and satellite imagery reveals that things are not quite what they might seem to be and will be on the down-swing going into this evening. 

A Cold front has already cut through the far Western Panhandle with grievous low level cloud cover and rain (even some sleet) occurring behind the boundary back in the cold air.  

The boundary will progress to a line per the GFS/and 4KM-NAM models to near South Tampa Bay to near Canaveral by around 1:30PM Saturday. (Noting that the North American Model (NAM) is considerably slower with the surface boundary's passage and has been consistently so in the past several runs, but for now will discount it).  

Meanwhile, continued warmer than 'normal' today ahead of the boundary with SW wind and highs in the lower 80Fs mainly south of and near I-4 . Increasing cloud cover with some showers and possibly thunder storms of strong to near severe levels mainly from near Cedar Key south toward Brooksville with a secondary area being watched for the near Sarasota toward Punta Gorda region  much later today toward evening (though that is a very low threshold risk for them being watched for at time of writing). 

 Otherwise, am expecting there is a chance of a 
"No Watch -but Warnings Possible" situation  

No Watch issuance for severe as coverage looks like it would be too isolated and factors are not lining up for all that much of a likelihood as well despite that there are several factors at play for severe  - they just are not adding up together to occur all at the same time.  

Either way, chance of it becoming breezier after dark with the first hints of rain fall not to occur Central (Interior) and Eastern Coastal areas until well after dark. Anytime after the 10PM time from for isolated activity well ahead of the boundary across all of Central but there is a chance nothing will occur in that time frame. 

The better chances more directly related to the front after midnight going into the sunrise time frame for  areas north of Ft Pierce to Punta Gorda line.

Cloud cover  and light to a few spots of moderate rain with a chance of embedded shear induced rotation where pockets of vertical uplift is concentrated could result in some lightning  and 'small' (non-severe) sized hail , with the chance of stronger wind gusts in (and in the vicinity of) even heavier isolated rain storms .

 Any activity beyond 'light rain' (if even) will be very isolated and quite brief in the 'in and outta here' fashion. At time not expecting that a Weather Watch will be issued for the upcoming situation at hand, unless conditions shift and one would be justifiably warranted.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE 
COLDER/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS POST FROPA

Saturday Afternoon: Assuming the GFS guidance which has held steady for days is reasonably accurate and holds intact, the front will pass through Central Florida from North to South from around 10:30AM (Northern parts)  to 3:30PM (Southern Parts) followed by a deliberate and noticeable shift in wind direction with much colder temperatures chasing down behind it eager to swift in for the kill.

Highest temperatures of the day will occur Saturday across all of North Central and Central prior to 1PM as a result (contingent upon the actual time the front passes through any given location).

Chances for  small craft advisories willlikely  be issued with winds gusts to near 33+ MPH possible with temperatures falling into the mid-upper 50Fs and yet colder still mainly west of I-95 / North of I-4 into the evening and to Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY MORNING: Coldest readings to occur from near Brooksville to Ocala across to Ormond Beach and north with below freezing readings for over six hours possible all across the Panhandle and down toward the Ocala National Forest regions with 'cold' WCI (wind chill index) readings.

Secondary cold area from near Punta Gorda  northeast to across western parts of the Orlando area and northeastward toward Central Volusia County though probably above freezing of if any freezing, for a very short period of time.

Outside of those regions incrementally warmer the further east and south one goes.

Coastal Brevard and Southward might not get below 50F during the entire event, outside of some Upper 40S   North or Central Brevard  along the coast. West of I-95 or US1, different story. 

Brrracious! with the wind.  

ALL Day Sunday will be characterized with a NNW wind becoming more northerly with time with highs never cracking the big "6-0 F " .


SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Continued cold but again, northerly to becoming more  NNE wind with time should prevent the immediate Coast from falling below 50F once again. Wind becomes more NNE-NE to even ENE by day's end Monday and slowly decreases. So far, guidance implies increasing low level cloudiness as the wind veers to more easterly as well, meaning increasing low level pancake stratocumulus clouds with only a few cloud breaks possibly all day Monday and if it were possible some light patches of rain spits straight through to Tuesday morning and possibly the same that day as well.

VAST IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN on TUESDAY AFTERNOON (?) from east to west, with warming and wind shifting to more southerly by Wednesday with temperatures returning to normal and even a bit above  " 'so called' 'Normal'" by Thursday.

BEYOND: Other than perhaps a weak boundary pressing through, the GFS has been showing that this upcoming colder , blustery weather will not be followed by a repeat performance any time soon. 

At least not with in the next 10 days to follow. 

At ease,  soldiers .

Chance of Mainly Interior Thunder , Convective Type Showers Possible at Beaches

Late Last Week, Cocoa Beach Surfing

TODAY: As noted in previous past last Thursday, it appeared there might be the potential for 'thunder on Monday'. Consistency is everything, and despite some ups and downs on the prognosis the signal is coming yet still as of this morning for that chance as short range guidance 'suddenly' just jumped on board, so will hoist the flag for a chance of thunder mainly from the NW Corner of Lake Okeechobee North and East to Volusia County with a bulls eye running close to or just east of the Orlando Metro or toward Sanford, to Northern  Osceola County though not exclusively.

The answer will be known later in the afternoon depending upon how much of a direct onshore component the east coast sea breeze attains. The less from the east and more from the south it is, the closer toward I-95 is the thunderstorm chance. Temperatures aloft are cold and the best divergence aloft  (for evacuation of updrafts) has been showing up to occur from Brevard South toward Vero Beach, Therefore, will watch interior Osceola County mostly then north-northeastward with time. Activity could press to the beaches (possibly after dark)..but whether it will be thunder or not is a tough call as we will have lost heating of the day by then (assuming any can form).

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: So far, today appears to be the better rain chance day. These days will be more characterized with continued warm to warmer as SW winds at the surface take hold. Chance of showers is greatly reduced but still watching Tuesday afternoon for the east coast (though nothing is showing up in guidance for that day). Regardless, well above 'normal' temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.

LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary glides down to Central or South Central and begins to undergo frontolysis  (or dissipation of identity). Regardless, cooler air will be hence coming behind the boundary with  reinforcements toward Friday or Saturday. For now, will leave well enough alone and saw a cooler period in store for these days with light winds with some clouds.

Overall, the general trend is that  it will be warmer Tuesday and Wednesday which  appears to be the end of it for quite some time.

The period of the 7th and 8th might be much cooler yet more (akin to recent days), and after that there is a big divergence in consensus from model run to model run for the GFS.

Paddle Boarder Greets the Morning

NOTE: We are entering the coldest time of year now from the first week of January into the last week of the month, with cold times also possible later. Climatologically though, this is the coldest month overall baring unusual circumstances which is always possible.

We will also be entering a period after this week into March of the potential for severe weather (aka, tornadoes) if the right ingredients can pull together. Every year is different, and at time there have been hints in the longer range guidance that something might make an attempt, but so far nothing concrete has yet been shown for a severe weather event, even in the long range guess range.

Near Record Highs Far East Central - Much Colder Friday / Rapid Turn Around Sunday

Sunrise Thursday, December 29, 2016, Cocoa Beach

TODAY: Cold front  - associated with Winter Storm Fortis now in the formative stages just near the coast of Virginia which will lift north to north-northeast and strengthen - is currently draped  near the Florida / Georgia Border having already pushed through the Western Panhandle where temperatures are falling through the 60Fs with a brisk NW wind. 

Meanwhile well south of the front toward I-4 and south, the entire day light hours will be spent ahead of the boundary  which marks the leading edge of  colder/drier air spilling southward.  Looks like areas south of I-4 will mainly see an  increase in cloud cover toward sunset and possibly a rain-shower after dark, with better rain chances north of I-4.

FRIDAY: Regardless , the wind shift associated with this incoming cold front should press across North Central to South Central between the hours of 8PM - 11PM or so, and be very close to a Canaveral to South Tampa Bay line near 9:15PM tonight. Wind will shift to NW and be gusty at times and quickly begin to dry out, but the temperature drop so far does not appear to be "Rapid" though will be noticeable immediately.  

Morning lows most areas south of I-4 will see mid-upper 40Fs with lower 50Fs from the Cape and and South nearer the immediate east coast , mainly east of US1.  So far the coldest low I've seen in Canaveral this 'fall-winter' season is around 51F-52F ish at my location, and this one so far does not look like it will get colder than that, if even. However, wind will be gusting through the early morning hours into the mid afternoon and slowly begin to wane late in the day Friday making it feel a bit too cool for splashing at the shore.

Due to the timing of the front and peak hours of cold air advection being during day time hours , Friday might be the all around coolest day yet regardless though, with afternoon highs north of Canaveral to Tampa line barely ekeing out of the upper 50Fs range, and if so only for a brief period of time. Coupled with a good breeze and gusts, it won't exactly be 'beach weather' tomorrow.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR'S EVE): This day will see much lighter wind as the associated high pressure area building in behind the front will be at its nearest proximity, though north of the state. 

Thus, probably won't see 'prime radiational cooling coupled with drainage flow at play, but rather favoring the NW Quadrant of the state for the coldest air, even toward freezing near the I-10 and possibly colder pockets south toward Ocala.  

The immediate east coast will be similar to the previous morning but with much less wind baring any change in the circumstances which would bring old mercury down even lower. 

It's a wait and see thing. Regardless , by afternoon this day could be nearly 10F degrees warmer than Friday as the wind begins to swing to the east and  'air mass modification' begins a slow at first turn around to warmer and less dry.

SUNDAY - HAPPY NEW YEAR!: Full 'air mass modification' in  swing overnight Saturday night with Sunday dawning along the East Coast (New Year's Day) near the 70F mark at the beaches.  

Highs New Year's Day in the mid-upper 70Fs with a good southeast wind.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:  Much warmer again, well above average with possibly 'new record highs' on Tuesday. Only stickler here is a disturbance passing over head on Monday which could increase rain chances Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning in some locations, or even only cloud cover. Will keep watching Monday for chance of Thunderstorms..as GFS is not consistent in how it is dealing with this day just yet.

NEXT TIME TO GET COLD?: Too soon to say. Could be around January 9th or so, or maybe not. GFS trends toward bringing boundaries this way and suddenly dampening them out across Central Florida one after the other. In other words, can't say. The latest GFS run which goes out to the 14th shows that Friday will be the coldest day until then (which will likely change).

All Eyes on Near Record Highs - Storms Possible Sunday

TODAY (SATURDAY): Slowly increasing moisture in moist southerly flow with slight onshore component early morning keeping the temperature near the east coast around 70F (and above) most locations from the Cape and south , east of or near US1, while other locations vary from the mid 50Fs to mid 60Fs elsewhere.  Some thin higher clouds streaming by should clear the area making for a partly cloudy afternoon with heating of the day. There 'might' be an increase in cloud cover late in the day toward Eastern parts due to moisture convergence, with even the NAM model implying showers to form, though suspect it's overblown in that regard.

SUNDAY: Continued veering of wind to due south, even a bit SSW . Temperatures most areas to reach the lower to even potentially mid 80Fs getting close to record levels for the date. Guidance continues to imply a chance of showers passing near the coast early in the day (though probably will for the most part remain offshore), as a powerful cold front that has put the 'deep freeze' on many parts of the country glides through the Deep South. High pressure over the Western Atlantic with its axis across South Central will put the brakes on that boundary though going into Sunday night somewhere close to or just south of the I-4 region.

Meanwhile, with continued moisture advection and warm temperatures, will see CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) reach up to around 1500 J/kg which is rather unusual for December. (IN summer it can reach over 4000 J/kg, but in winter it mostly is around 500 J/kg or below to non-existent, for comparison's sake).  Moisture convergence and decent low level lapse rates combined with increased low level helicity along the east coast of Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties combined with the instability could result in some thunderstorms (though isolated) over mainly East Central and perhaps parts of interior South Central. Was tempted to cry , 'Possibly Strong' !   but mid level lapse rates are forecast to be weak and wind fields aloft are too weak to truly justify that call, apart from a random fluke , non-zero chance .

MONDAY: Frontal boundary gets absorbed around the outer most fringes of the cold air mass over much of the country as high pressure centered well north of Florida moves east resulting in a light, easterly to variable wind flow for a time. All this will means is slightly cooler in the mornings  with less chance of rain ; however, cloud cover could become problematic for about 2 days as moisture along the old boundary will take some time to thin out.

Regardless, latest trends are for highs in the lower 80Fs, with even a chance of a shower, possibly a random thunderstorm inland this day,  but wouldn't put any bets on the thunder risk just yet. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Fairly benign pattern in place these days look  a bit like what the weather was like on Friday  with the chance of shower caveat thrown in, with a generally lighter easterly wind flow, some clouds, and above normal temperature regime but not record breaking, with morning/overnight showers possible close to the east coast south of the Daytona Beach area toward Miami. We might again need to watch for 'thunder' by Thursday afternoon as wind becomes more southerly by that time ahead of the next front that will be on the approach.

FRIDAY: Next front in question approaches the state but at time suspect it will undergo the same 'fate' as several have already so not taking the bait on any one model run at this point.  It appears the next front will pull  another Quick switcheroo around to an easterly wind shift behind the boundary (assuming it clears Central) to more easterly as the Jet Stream still will reside well north of the state rather than digger down to across or even south of Florida (necessary for the real cold air intrusions). 

CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY: Too far out in time for accuracy. Model guidance has flipped around numerous times with yet the front after this upcoming front on Friday to  varying from a possible cold front passage and much colder to the front never quite getting here yet with not much change, to an increasingly wet period with storms possible, all of which directly imply that it's too soon to say what Christmas Day will be like at this point.

Showers or a Storm Today ,Cooler then Much Cooler Friday-Saturday

TODAY: Complicated series of  frontal boundaries to affect Florida today through late Thursday before clearing the area early Friday. Until then, latest guidance and surface observations shows a poorly organized 'cool front' type boundary across South Georgia as a pre-frontal trough . The 'True Cold Front' is still much further north and west into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley to approach and pass through Central Florida and into South Florida early Friday to late Friday morning time frame.

Meanwhile, another muggy morning at hand before even sunrise, with temperature and dewpoints in the 70Fs. 

Greatest instability today should occur where least cloud cover can be maintained the longest into peak heating which appears will occur from just north of the I-4 south to parts of far South Central Florida.

Overlaying that instability is 'wind energy' , in this case, speed shear in the mid to upper levels to be most noted mainly north of I-4 to a line running from just north of Sebastian Inlet toward Clearwater, Florida. 

There is very little to no directional shear and temperatures aloft, though cool, aren't anything overly  abnormal. Latest Model Radar Simulations are not showing 'wide spread' storms today but a few of them are showing 'a storm or two' as far south as perhaps the Ft. Pierce (very late after dark) area with another somewhere 'near the  SR 528 zone across to Tampa along I-4 in the mid-afternoon time frame in the more 'favored area for a stronger storm'.
Areas to watch today might be more toward the West Coast from Sarasota and north, though the 4KM-NAM (in the latest run) shows a strong storm over or near Central/North Brevard late afternoon as well.

All in all would expect some increased cloudiness after the sun gets cooking with a chance of a quick moving storm and/or some showers south of I-4  (and north of I-4 earlier as current radar above shows) sometime  after 2pm through 6pm. Otherwise, another warm day.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The first 'prefrontal boundary' will be near Central Florida early Wednesday morning and it will be nearly 10F degrees cooler most areas as a result, than it is this Tuesday morning. Behind this boundary is drier air and slightly cooler (but barely) temperatures. All in all, the affect of this boundary will be a shift in wind direction and slightly drier air, but the real front will still be nearly 48 hours away. Chance of even a shower however it would appear on Thursday particularly parts of Central to South Florida but storms unlikely except perhaps near and south of the Lake Okeechobee region. No 'rain outs' anticipated and mainy areas during this time period will not see any rain at all.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: What had been heralded as what would have perhaps been 'the coldest yet of the season' has greatly diminished in it's 'cooling capacity' during the past three days per model trends and agreement between them. 

The Final Front-ier should be through near sunrise Friday (Central) though the latest NAM seems to imply...with not much of a cold blast at all. Though wind will be gusting from the NW-NNW most of Central will be seeing either mid- upper 40Fs toward  lower to mid 50Fs, warmest along the East Coast from the Cape and South. 

[If the latest NAM (North American Model) were to pan out, it might be even a bit warmer than that though, with lows mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs across most of Central Florida (but will discount it's 'warmth' for the time being). ]

Granted, about a week ago the GFS was showing mid- upper 30Fs where it is now showing  upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs for the same time frame.

Regardless, this might be , on the NAMs part, due to the slower timing of the frontal passage. Regardless, Friday looks to be a rather cool day all around with the high never reaching 70F except South Florida, even only lower to mid 60Fs for many areas? 

SUNDAY : Either way, agreement is that wind quickly will veer to NE-E and eventually perhaps to the ESE-SE by later on Sunday and decrease with a warm up at hand. The GFS shows no cold front passing through up to nearly December 21st (the first astronomical day of Winter) , at this point, but not set in stone by any means (though that is the latest trend .  

Regardless, does look like from Sunday for the following week temperatures will run above normal once gain, and remaining dry for the most part.