Could It Be...A "Slight" Chance of Rain?

(tiger lilies by the pool)

The long advertised first front of the season is currently located between Daytona Beach on the east coast to just south of Cedar Key on the west side. All atmospheric parameters as far as instability and moisture differences sharply advertise the boundary which is slowly sinking south.

Interestingly, the NAM model has been indicating precipitation with the front along the east central coast by late this afternoon for 2 days now, and now the short range RUC model is doing so as well for the past few runs. It does not appear that the front will "blast" through by any means. In fact, it appears it will make it to a North Brevard - Tampa region by late afternoon and just sort of loiter around a bit before continuing its southward progression after sunset. So what does this mean for us?

Latest sounding data is of little use as the air mass is undergoing some gentle modification throughout the day and will be continuously changing. So based on satellite imagery, surface analysis, and model trends it appears that some form of rain should be included in this 'personal' afternoon forecast package especially from Orlando and points east to the coast and south to the shores of Okeechobee and Ft. Pierce. I was originally thinking that the forecasted precipitation would reveal itself as only enhanced mid-level clouds, but will now kick it up a notch to traceable amounts of rain...maybe measurable. However, it is with great hesitation. The front and its associated moisture may linger just long enough in these areas for moisture to amass and generate some of this rain.

Shortly after dark..or by 9pm it should be over for the central locales though..with the potential lingering until after midnight further south.

As for temperatures, interestingly the Melbourne area got into the upper 60s early this morning, while the coast near Canaveral was still in the mid-upper 70s. With the front going through a tad slower than earlier thought, don't think Wednesday morning temperatures will be all so outstandingly cool; that will wait until Thursday, and even still won't be too great. The biggest change for the late morning riser will be that afternoons will be a solid 5 degrees cooler and much drier through Thursday and into midday Friday.

The next front in the series will be taking shape over the Plains tomorrow and Thursday and will entire our picture by Saturday. Along with that will be increased moisture (humidity) and the chance of rain will again enter the picture. Not by humongous amounts, but it will be there.

For today, enjoy the afternoon and keep ones eyes glued to the WNW after the 3-4pm time frame until dark if your looking for those rain clouds.

Fall - Phase I - Has Arrived?

(this image shows some kind of "boundary" aloft passing over the aparment stretching east-west)

If a water vapor image tells a thousand words, then the old phrase holds true. Much drier air aloft is already overhead, and even drier air resides in extreme North Brevard knocking at our door. At the surface, the dewpoint has dropped below 70 degrees for the first time in who knows how long (I would probably suffice it to say since April though as a wild guess...or maybe early May).

All in all, today will be a dry one with no change in the ambient outside air temperatures. After sunset and into early Tuesday morning it will be the very immediate coast that will notice the change with the drier air and a light westerly wind component. As of shortly before noon today the wind even veered to the NW, an indication that indeed a front has passed. It currently resides from a Palm Beach to Ft. Myers line and probably won't make it much further south during the day. And yet another front is waiting on its heels for post-noontime tomorrow. This will be the second half (Phase II) of falls arrival with an accompanying drop in temperature as well.

The models are continuing to show a chance of rain to accompany the second front after noon tomorrow along the central east coast, but as of now I have extremely low confidence of any such animal to make an appearance. Most likely what is showing as precipitation by the models will manifest itself as a band of short lived mid-level cloudiness.

Open the windows Tuesday night before going to bed because unless one likes it really REALLY cool inside with the A/C cranked up it should be cool enough for the meekest of souls to bear. I'm holding true to yesterday's temperature forecast other than it's possible that everyone other than those living within 3 blocks of the beach will fall below 70 degrees. Coldest temperatures will be on the west side of the state from Punta Gorda north, especially 5 miles or more away from the Gulf of Mexico. The warmest morning lows in the state will be found along and east of A1A from Cape Canaveral south.

Looking into the future a bit, we can rest on our haunches for a while as far as anything spectacular weather wise to occur. At least until Saturday. The local air mass will undergo a very slow modification starting Friday with no more fronts poised to impact us until at least early NEXT week...if even that. Often these first fronts are more like a friendly gesture to remind us the summer is over, but fall still has some biding to do..but don't forget 'it'...because sure enough it will be here for the long haul sooner than you think!

Summery Hot...and Maybe Even Wet Today

Several changes are in store for east central Florida the next two days starting with last night. Overall steering has finally shifted from being easterly as it has been for at least two weeks to being from the west. The change occurred as expected late Saturday and was heralded by some brief rain after midnight. Those steering currents will remain in place the remainder of this week, at least until Friday.

For today, a cold front is currently located from around Jacksonville to Cross City. This front will sink into Central Florida during the course of the day then slide off to the east with no impact temperature wise. Ahead of the front the air mass is still pretty 'wet'...and with probably no sea-breeze today things will heat up into the low 90s, even along the coast. There is currently some scattered shower activity ahead of the frontal boundary along the west half of the state which will translate eastward during the course of the day. We might not wait for the leading edge of this precipitation to reach us for rain chances to pick up a notch. With all the heating and ample moisture in place, expect at least some widely scattered activity to develop in the 12:30-1:30pm time frame along the east half of the state (there is a caveate to this as noted in the next paragraph). Activity will then become more 'full blow' in the 3pm time frame and last until after sunset, mainly east of the I-4 corridor.

There seems to be a brief, relatively dry slot of air aloft currently over the area which may off set rain chances for a time early in the afternoon, but this should be gone after the more full blown chances move in from 3pm onward. I don't believe this front will actually make it through the area, but rather wash out completely over us; however, somewhat drier air will user in behind it for a time over night tonight and through Monday.

Then fall, or a hint of it, arrives late Tuesday in the form of yet another cold front. At this time, it appears the front will pass through East Central Florida mid-afternoon Tuesday...to be followed by yet drier air in earnest, northerly winds, and slightly cooler temperatures, especially during the overnight hours where "window opening weather" may very well be possible Tuesday and Wednesday nights at bedtime. But don't expect anything earth shattering, just cool enough to do that for the brave at heart (or with a tolerance for sleeping in low 70s weather). High temperatures will be in the mid-80s but with the air being so much drier, the change will be noticeable. The areas west of the I-4 corridor will see the biggest morning cool down as far south as Sarasota with temperatures into the mid-upper 60s. Actually, the more that I think about it...areas west of U.S. 1 may very well break the 70 degree mark. It's the immediate coastal area, surrounded by warm water on all sides, that will feel the least impact from this change in the weather. It's always the "very" immediate coast that is the last to feel true fall weather as a rule anyway...due to the surrounding warm water which takes quite a while to modify.

Anyway, the front may again provide for a shot of rain Tuesday afternoon, restricted to the eastern peninsula south of Daytona Beach where some lingering moisture may reside. But this front will shove even that possibility out to sea in its wake until at least late Friday.

On Friday and during the course of the week thereafter a moderate zonal (west to east) steering flow will reside across much of the south half of the continental U.S. with a fairly active pattern running along the jet stream across the Northern Plains...the Great Lakes..and the Northeast U.S.

The first of these systems may make a brief dip south into the Central Plains providing a shot of severe weather mostly over Kansas and Nebraska and maybe western Iowa late this Wednesday through Thursday, although northeast Okalahoma can't be discounted.

Florida may be intermittently affected by the extreme southern tip of a system or two, but for the most part our weather along the east coast will be dictated by a weak, shallow onshore flow after Friday which will modify the drier air mass to normal moisture levels. Not sure if this moisture will stretch deep enough up into the atmosphere though to induce coastal showers starting late Friday and into next week...but that's still 5 days away.

Fall Will Creep In (If You Can Call It That)

(Delta II blasts off Friday at 8:10am from Cape Canaveral AFS)

I didn't leave a blog post yesterday...as there was no need to with the ever continuing prevalent nice weather on tap. It was perfect weather for the Delta II launch though. Today, no difference, although some gentle changes are in store beginning tonight through Tuesday which will be fun to monitor from a meteorological aspect, although from the weather watcher stand point it won't be very exciting (except maybe tomorrow as noted below). As of this writing, the latest model data has not come in yet, but I'm not expecting any earth shattering new info, so decided to go ahead and post anyway.

High pressure that has been dominant across the center of the state the past many days will sink to south Florida during the course of the day and be located near the southern tip of the state shortly after sunset. In response to this the steering currents will shift from the east to being from the west by around sunset tonight and then be prevalent through Wednesday from that direction. A surface cold front will sink Sunday from extreme North Florida into the Central peninsula during the course of the day which will be our only real rain chance mechanism for a shower or thunderstorm for many days to come as it lingers near the area during the afternoon. Anything that forms along this boundary will be shoved toward the east coast.

This front will linger just along or south of the area by late Sunday until a reinforcing shot hits on Tuesday and pushes the whole shebang south toward the Florida Keys by Wednesday morning. It will be Wednesday and Thursday mornings that we will see our first 'coolish, dryish' mornings of the fall season. That meaning a low temperature between 72-75 degrees and relative humidity below 75%...not saying much, but it is a change :-). It is the western half of the state that will feel the bigger temperature change, but not by much.

The folks on the west side of the state today might not see the big rains they've been receiving the past several days. Believe that as the steering currents shift, there will be a sea-breeze collision set up along the western interior, and it's likely that is where most of the rain will remain today..mostly from Lake down to Polk County..then along the western shores of Lake Okeechobee. As the steering currents start to shift tonight the extreme west coast from Sarasota north might be prone to nocturnal and early morning showers into Sunday though, which will be interesting to monitor.

All in all, by late Tuesday through the end of this upcoming week it appears it will be dry with lows in the mid-upper 70s and highs in the mid-80s. Onshore flow beginning Thursday afternoon will lead to moderate temperature rise to nearly the levels they've been the past few days. That far out, rain chance forecasting would be strictly tongue in cheek to be perfectly honest, so no point in trying this far out.

Water OFF..Water ON..Water OFF...Water ON

(Above: "Gold Sunshine")

The atmosphere over the Atlantic nearshore waters and the land mass are just not cooperating in tandem to produce the desired precipitation along much of East Central Florida. Of course, if you don't want it to rain it's golden sunshine. Current morning data at first glance seems to reveal all the answers for the day...while the models are showing a different story altogether.

So this forecast will have two options : (1) A blend of what current data shows, the models, and past days trends...or (2) what my gut tells me.

(1) Current data shows that the atmosphere is very well saturated up to above 700mb with the driest air residing right on or above the surface. However, water vapor imagery shows much drier air throughout the layer has moved in since after midnight despite what the fairly recent sounding shows and this drier air expends well out into the Atlantic. Expect this 'drier air' reside mostly just well aloft and shouldn't be much of a factor (3) Some models indeed pick up on the drier early day period..but all agree that it will only last until early afternoon. So based on the models one is lead to believe that this drier air is short lived at the very low level..and by very early afternoon will be replaced by rainshowers moving onshore. However, by that time the true sea-breeze will have become established and washed out all hopes of such occurring.

(2) With all said and done, it is with great hesitation that I'm led to believe that east central Florida will receive little to no rain today despite what the model runs are showing. Interestingly, the drier air aloft is currently over much of the peninsula except extreme south. Models do show that rain chances will begin somewhere in the 2-3pm time frame west of the spine of the state and this leading 'voundary' will collide with a light onshore /Gulf Breeze after 5pm which shouldn't make it much more than about 10-20 miles inland. By that time whatever dry air is in place there now will likely have moved out. The caveate for the east coast is that models are still hinting at precipitation for even after the onset of the seabreeze. Whether this is just an anomoly or a sign of a change in the pattern of late will have to be seen. If indeed there has been a change, then the east coast could see afternoon rainshowers, but this would be a pretty big change, and I'm not willingly to jump into that pool yet without testing the waters. But leave it at this, if it does by any chance happen to rain today, it should be between 12:30pm - 2pm.

West coasters can hope for another shabang very late today...but just exactly where is not so written in stone as it has the past few days. Could be almost anywhere...as the story unfolds.....

"Freddie"'s Back

(photographers capture a Canaveral morning moment at sunrise)

The ashes of Fred have finally arrived as discussed yesterday. The first sign occurred last night around 10pm when the Canaveral area received just under 1/2" of rain in short order. Since that time most of the rainfall has been focused over the southern half of the county, but there's more in store for the rest of the day.

For today, the inverted trough axis is currently situated along the western Brevard County area with a heap of moisture waiting in its wings over the Atlantic. Shower activity extends beyond the scope of the radar. This activity will exist off an on throughout the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The trough axis will continue to slide westward during the day and into the night and will be quickly followed by a ridge axis which now resides along the U.S. East Coast. Once that ridge axis becomes the dominating feature the rain will come to an abrupt halt. Timing as to when exactly this will happen is a bit sketchy, but it currently appears it will be by noon Thursday. After that rain/thunderstorm activity will be limited to the inland areas and along the West Coast.

As the ridge axis strengthens the west coast may even find it difficult to squeeze out some rain..but that's almost out of the range of a daily blog issuance, so will leave that discussion to a more appropriate time frame.

It still appears that a cold front is going to try to penetrate the Deep South during the beginning of next week. This front will actually come as a "backdoor" one...meaning it will sink in from the northeast rather than from west or northwest. There is a variety of potential resultant outcomes from a backdoor front being from benign to a rainfall event as can happen this time of year. But for now it appears the only affect will be to drop morning temperatures into the low-mid 70s for a day or two...with the west half of the state seeing the greatest cool down in the morning. That's still quite a way off, so to generate a full blown forecast for this time frame would be nothing more than adding more hearsay to the fire. Just keep a heads up come the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

Subtle Changes Are Occurring

*Above: Sunset Over the Banana River as Seen From Cape Canaveral

Somewhat subtle to nearly astounding changes have occurred overnight along the immediate east coast that are quite surprising, and it appears that additional surprises are in store.

First off, the KSC sounding indicated precipitable water to be nearly 2.1" today, a far cry from the 1.67" of yesterday (much more moist), and this moisture isn't limited to any one or two specific layers but rather the entire column. This means, no real capping dry air aloft. The problem for the near future (for those who actually want rain) is that a narrow band of drier air is looming just off the coast. The location and movement of that sliver has two potential impacts. (1) It will sit there and prevent showers from forming off shore and moving onto the coast, (2) it might shift over the area and prevent showers from either forming on the immediate coast or kill anything that moves in from the east. Hence, even though we are more saturated today we still may not see any rain, at least not until late this afternoon.

The dry slot is on the leading edge of an extra moist pocket of air (remnants of "Fred")...and this poses yet another complexity to the forecast. Most models are depicting this area to move into the Carolinas/Northeast Georgia, yet current water vapor loop and wind field analysis shows that this trend is not at all to what's actually occurring. In fact, it looks like the remnants have split..with the high level energy indeed moving into the Carolinas, while the lower level 'stuff' is moving dead west toward East Central Florida. I believe the dry slot off shore is subsidence ahead of this forward motion.

What this all means? The dry slot will either move over or remain just off shore and gradually dissipate during the day. The first hint of moisture from "Fred" will move in during the course of the late afternoon, with the bigger slug to arrive mid-afternoon Wednesday. For the most part all of this will mean little more than a slightly increasing chance of coastal rain showers on the east coast..while the West Coast's pattern remains unphased. It does appear that the bulk of shower activity on the West Coast will be from the immediate Tampa Bay area to just south of Ft Myers with most of it clinging around the Bay and south right along the coast. Inland areas away from both sides it appears will only receive remnant shower debris as a sea-breeze collision in the true sense does not appear to be a threat. However, given ample heating and destabilization lake-breeze /sea-breeze interactions are still possible especially in Lake County and around Lake Okeechobee. It currently appears that the moisture, as defragmented as it is, will arrive in 'waves' at any given time, so there is no specific time frame when one can predict it is most likely to rain. This will be the case from late this afternoon into mid-day Thursday.

Moisture levels will return to their lower levels along the east coast after mid-day Thursday and remain as such until an approaching cold front struggles into the Deep South and eventually Florida. But that's a new story for a new day in this weather log's entry.

Dorothy - The First Chaser

Photos courtesy of Jim Williams of
http://www.dryliner.org/

In recognition of the debut of "The Wizard Of Oz" in HD at a theater near
you!

Sunday In The Park

(remember what that is in the above photo?)

Today's weather along the East Central Florida Coastline this morning can easily be summed up as sunny and dry. Morning sounding came in dry at all levels except at the very lowest and a thin sliver in the mid-levels. The NAM model picked up on this trend, and as of this writing, was the only to have done so. Therefore, most of the day's forecast is hinged upon both that and latest water vapor / visible satellite imagery...speaking of which, water vapor does indeed show the area in a 'dry slot'...except maybe a few low Cumulus clouds this afternoon and some high cirrus with light-moderate onshore easterly winds this afternoon. Don't expect much anywhere in the area, including inland.

About the only place that looks like it could receive some rain today is along the immediate west and southwest Florida Coast from Tampa South. The upper air data from that area came in much more moist and the NAM picked up on that as well. It does show shower/storm activity in that area to commence after 2pm into the evening.

In fact, the NAM in the longer term continues to support this scenario for both Monday and Tuesday for the most part. Only exception being that the SE Florida Coast might see a slight increase in moisture late Monday with, I dare hesitate to say, "remnant" Fred other than giving whatever it is a name. Might as well starting naming every thunderstorm is about how relevant it is, but tropical discussion lovers would put a high nose up to such degradation of their adored creatures (I am a tropical weather forecasting lover myself, but let's face reality folks :-)

As always in such a flow pattern, with no outlying data resources available upstream in an easterly flow regime, changes to this pattern are most certainly possible within any given 12 hour time frame especially along the east coast.

Like a Long Playing Record Album....

(Above shows the recorded rainfall totals for my precise location so far this month as submitted to CoCoRAHS)

*(New Info: I've since updated some blog settings and can now immediately email any significant changes worth noting directly to the blog for auto-updates. Nifty)

Not breaking any records today...just sounding like one that keeps playing over and over again. And not much change in the future either so better like the song because otherwise it's going to drive you crazy. Just like any record, it has its share of nicks and scratches to provide barely detectable variety, but the same song is still playing.

Morning sounding again shows significant drying and warm air aloft at just about 10,000 feet at most with moisture trapped beneath it like steam under a layer of Glad Wrap. Over that there isn't much too work with either, so what that means is that based on the steering currents, activity will drift on shore and weaken as it does so into what will be just barely discernible rain showers up until maybe 3pm.

It's tempting to say the generic "after that the focus shifts inland" but I don't really see that inland will see anything at all today. There is a slightly better chance in the Tampa area from about 5pm-10pm, but after that this area will also meet the Grim Reaper for Rain.

Some folks are watching what was once Fred (what?! that thing is still around?)...and indeed one model brings the bulk of it's now hapless life-form smack dab into East Central Florida between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Whereas, another model leaves it even less identifiable and takes its ashes northward into coastal North Carolina. For now, I think the funeral occurred and is over for Fred and we'll see close to no change in the weather no matter which way it goes. I will say one thing though for those two models..it does make sense that if it goes further north it's even weaker than if it stays further south. But for now I'll have no problems putting the nightcap on and sleeping well and just plain forgetting the whole thing. Meaning that those who don't won't rain other than over night and early morning coastal showers should be delighted for at least the next week!

It's a stretch to forecast out that far, but given the time of year such patterns tend to entrench themselves quite vigorously and won't let go. In fact, unless something tropical comes this way we won't see any change at all until the first cold front of the season makes it here.

WHAT! Cold front?! That's right. It's getting to be that time. In fact, from all my experiences here we can get the first one sometime within the last week of September. The generic low temperature here for such occasions is 67 degrees. Don't ask me why, but there is something magical about that temperature. Used to love those days when I was in grade school. So excited about putting on one of those cozy sweaters in the morning before school, only to be roasting in it when it was time to come home that afternoon.

The "Lid" Has Elevated -- But Not Enough

Conditions are overall identical to yesterday over the Southeast U.S. in the large scale of things. The only thing different today for East Central Florida is that the strong cap has become a tad more elevated today, thus giving rise to more big puffy clouds that are growing a little more elevated.

However, the lid is just right up there a notch higher, but probably too low for clouds to produce in vertical extent enought for anything more than a barely detectable mist for a minute or two as they linger along the coast line into the early afternoon.

Conditions today will remain with these possible mists under otherwise partly cloudy skies. The chance of even a mist will be gone by 2pm though, as drier air aloft moves in.

Dream On - The Rain Gauge Is Forgetting How To Work!

What is it with the weather around here lately? Water, water everywhere..but not a drop in the old rain gauge bucket...sigh. And there is no change in the near term either.

A high pressure ridge axis still extends from the Appalachians southward across the eastern Florida peninsulas this morning. The KSC morning sounding hasn't shown up on the website; perhaps they decided it wasn't worth the hassle....just kidding. Nevertheless, based on what the models are showing...and what has transpired the past two days, I see no reason why the tune should change dramatically for today. It will take a Jeannie to change things.

Hence, expect another day like yesterday, although it might be a tad warmer.

Not so sure how well the west half of the state will fair though. They could still be in for some rain showers but actual STORMS will be lacking due to unfavorable upper level parameters: lack of appropriately colder air aloft and no lifting mechanisms such as positive vorticity advection. They will have slightly more moist air aloft, but that's it.

What first appeared may be a change by Friday does not look as likely now. In fact, it could be well into the beginning of next week before we see ample moisture at all levels to bring on the rain. And when it does, it will be coming off the ocean....which means it will be falling in the late afternoon into the mid-morning time frame of the next day.

So enjoy the sun and pack away the umbrellas...because summer thunderstorm season is over, not to say we still can't get them...but the 'season' is over for all intensive purposes.

Same Old Story, Same Old Song and Dance

This will be a brief post for today's entry due to the fact that there is no change to the forecast for east central Florida from yesterday. The set up of meteorological factors has changed little to none from yesterday's post. So if you want to know what that set up was scroll on down to it.

In full recap for today's weather though, no rain east of the spine of the state until one gets down to the extreme Southern tip of the state. West coast to see rain chances from Tampa area south and into the keys. The north and eastern parts of the state are being dominated by a nasty high pressure ridge extension poking south off the Appalachins and as far south as Lake Okeechobee, leaving the east half in it's stabilizing, northerly and dry stabilizing flow.

See no change for at least another day and possibly as long as 3 days. But things could change sooner than expected contingent upon what a 'yet to be seen' tropical wave may do. Thunderstorm threat though for East Central Florida appears to be non-existant today.

Tricky, Tricky

Interesting forecast challenge today. I've monitored the local forecasts and watched The Weather Channel, and have opted to go against the grain today as far as what our weather will be like. Here's the set up and my reasoning.

Low pressure centers over the Bahamas and Louisiana are no longer joined by a weak boundary but rather a low level ridge axis impinging south from the mid-Atlantic area is cutting that boundary in half right over east Florida. This ridge is acting as 'the great divide' at the lowest levels of the atmosphere and creating a relatively drier area just above the surface than the layers lower or above that along the east half of the state . The net affect is that as moisture gets working with the heat of the day and the air is lifted it will pass into this area and no longer be suitable for production of storms. The only area not succumbing to this predator is the extreme west half of the state and areas south of Lake Okeechobee.

Thus, for today I see no rain chance for the Space Coast other than maybe a large cloud that can put out some sprinkles. By late afternoon into early evening those storms that do get cranking up further west will spread out anvil debris in the more moist upper levels of the atmosphere, producing mostly cloudy skies (much like what happened yesterday).

And like was mentioned yesterday, I still don't see that chances of rain will increase for this immediate area until very late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. After that time, the chance for some real storms with colder air aloft seems to be in the cards at this time.

Beautiful Day In Store

(rainbow near sunset yesterday as seen from my apartment)

This morning a low pressure area resides about 200 miles offshore with a very weak, diffuse stationary boundary stretched westward from it and across the state which then joins another low in the north central Gulf of Mexico. This boundary will drop south of all of Central Florida today and usher in a northeast wind in its wake. Although there is still quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere today, I believe that the wind across the ocean water will have somewhat of a stabilizing affect on any potential storms that could form today. Additionally, the mean steering currents will be from the northeast as well, so whatever rain falls today will have to come off the ocean.

There is a very small chance of a rain shower or increased cloud coverage in the 12pm -2pm time frame, but that chance is so small that it will have little effect on the day's events.

Tomorrow, at this point, looks like about the same story. It won't be until late Wednesday, when the low now in the northern Gulf starts to track northeast and drags the boundary back across us, now from the south, that juicier and more unstable air will penetrate the area. But the outcome of that still has two days to come to fruition so let's not jump the gun on that one yet. For now...enjoy a meteorlogically boring day.

Pictures From The Evening of the Morning Funnel

Pictures from today

Break Out The Galoshes

(photo: Thursday Morning at Sunrise Looking Over the Atlantic)

The weather scenario this morning from a purely meterological perspective is very exciting, but requires little elaboration as it is hoped that everything is fairly straight forward.

This mornings KSC Sounding (and a later 'special' launch) is painting a sporadically wet afternoon and early evening for almost all of East Central Florida. Although the atmosphere is totally saturated from ground to jet stream level there is little else going for us that would get something 'severe or strong' going. Additionally, based on the steering wind speeds, any prolonged heavy downpours will not sit in any one area for long. But rain chances appear to be very high nonetheless especially east of a north/south line running from Ocala to Okeechobee. Overall rain coverage at any one given time shouldn't be huge, but all persons east of that line have a good chance of experiencing at least a brief shower with big drops splotting down.,...and large rainfall amounts will be the result of repeated raindrop invasions.

Believe that with heating of the day that some of these 'showers' may also become lightning producers, and I wouldn't count out a waterspout either over the Atlantic, although winds might be too strong for that other than the strongest of spouts.

For Today: As of noon showers are already developing in the western fringes of the area outlined above, and are moving at a good 15-20mph clip toward the ESE. Coverage in the initiation area should continue and additional development can occur about anywhere else at the same time. By 3pm expect there will be some fast moving thunderstorms and lots of spotty rain showers across all of East Central Florida.

Not sure how late into the afternoon or early evening such prevalent conditions will exist, but it appears that before sunset the show will be over due to: 1) drier air aloft moving in 2) extensive cloudiness cutting off the instability supply 3) areas previously rained on will have stabilized and become unfavorable for further onslaughts.

Later Tonight and Tomorrow: The jury is somewhat hung as to what Monday will bring. But a few factors seem to be a given. The overall air mass will have dried out and the steering flow will be from the NW to NNW (not coming from a moisture source such as the Gulf or Atlantic). NW flow along east central Florida can be very interesting though if the right parameters are in place, but at this time I'd give us a 3 in 10 chance of such to occur. It could very well be a completely rain free day other than a few isolated storms, but as you know..it only takes one on your head to make it a rainy day.

Rain A Good Possiblity - But Storms May Be Lacking

(Infrared satellite imagery depicts the gloom already over the west coast and moving our way, slowly)

Most of the transitional changes have fallen into affect as they had begun in earnest early Friday evening and hit with a whack of 1.3" of rain over night in Cape Canaveral. This morning has begun with cloudy skies and a calm wind. Rain, some heavy at times, blankets much of the extreme western portion of the state, much to the chagrin of those in the Tampa area; hope those 'honey dos' are done, because they are in the muck for much of the morning.

For the east coast: I'm going to slide a glimmer of hope for the 'non-rainy' type folks today and mention right off the bat that the bark of the well advertised wet day to lay ahead might be worse than its bite. The surface boundary, weak and diffuse as it is, lays some where right across the center of the state and is saturated to the gills with moisture at all levels. The problem for the storm lover in me is that the temperature of the air aloft is not very cold and in fact a tad on the warm side at the lower levels, which is not conducive for rapidly rising columns of air (instability) which induces thunderstorms. Additionally, the strongest winds aloft are forecast-ed by weather models to be in the mid-levels then weakening higher up.

So what? This is what. Parcels of air that are trying to rise in an environment not fit for man or beast that encounter these stronger winds will be torn asunder before the can reach the higher, cooler ambient environment higher aloft, leaving them as kindred spirits spread amongst the winds. In other words, wimpy wimpy wimpy. Net affect is when the favored rainy area to the west works its way east toward the coast it is simply torn apart and weakened.

This means we'll have to leave it to the heating of the day and some cloud breaks to get things going with any respectability worth pulling a camera out for. What I foresee is simply a cloudy day...with the rain struggling to get here. It's going to be one those days where one will say "it's going to rain any minute"..and "any minute" can become hours. But once it's here, it will be here to stay for a while.

All things given, I'm thinking that activity along the eastern 1/4 of Central Florida will for the most part hold off until at least noon time..and in some areas as late as 4pm. Whatever activity that develops will be of mostly the 'rain' nature only, and not those horrific lightning and wind storms we all love so dearly. Shame.

The very near future is somewhat bleak for the sun-worshippers, so make those appointments at the tanning salon now. It might be days before there's a period of baking the skin in natural sunlight due to lots of high clouds.

Future Days like Sunday and on: It will be interesting to see what the net affect of what is being foreseen by the models...which should be mentioned..is not at all in agreement amongst those masses. It could be anywhere from rainy to partly cloud and actually pretty nice by Monday depending on which one you want to materialize the most. Unfortunately, the weather seldom is in the business of granting wishes, so we'll have to deal with what we're dealt. So hang in there, get some good video rentals and find some chores to do around the house. It's a good weekend for it.

Big Changes Begining Late Today

(small funnel cloud and accompanying rain showers from Thursday - 9/10/09)

Big changes are now occurring as was alluded to would happen today in Wednesday's post. The morning KSC sounding and forecast models are all gradually coming into agreement of this atmospheric transformation so some forecasting challenges are at hand.

Now and First 3/4 of Today: Latest sounding indeed shows that over the past 24 hours the easterly steering flow has become shallower and shallower. There is a shift of winds now just above 10,000 feet to a westerly component whereas the past couple of days that shift was up at 20,000 feet. It will continueto slowly lower during the day, but any impacts will not be realized until late today into tonight when it sets up in earnest. Meanwhile, the overall moisture content/depth has likewise increased as well as instability.

A weak surface boundary extends from a strong low pressure system off the New Jersey coast south and westward across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico joining the low pressure system that had been trying to form off North Central Cuba (which is now moving WNW). As this low moves further north the boundary will do so in tandem...impinging into the southern areas by very late today. I think the models are a little fast on the course of events, so we may see little impact of this today north of a Vero-Tampa line. If anything, it could be initially drier from points north of a Ft. Pierce to Sarasota line...but the change is coming.

Ocean showers are not really making it onshore today (unlike yesterday) due to the fact that the easterly steering flow is being begrudingly disrupted, and we are thus falling into a temporary nil-flow pattern until tonight. However, with ample moisture, instability, sea-breeze/lake breeze mergers, and the aforementioned boundary all in play today there will be storms today just north, along, and south of the boundary. Showers/storms will be limited to highly isolated until after 7pm further north and into the overnight.

Tomorrow (Saturday) looks to be an active day weather-wise, so I hope you got those "honey-dos" done. Break out the camera gear, the galoshes (do folks wear them in Florida?), and boot up the radar on the computer...never hurts to look at the sky too, because they'll all be needed by later today, tomorrow, Sunday...and from there the jury is closed.

Future evolution of this impending scenario will be described possibly as soon as later today if the changes become more evident or actually start to occur more rapidly than currently anticipated.

Fall Preview In Store Again Today

Lola Says "Watch the Weather Channel tonight between 7-10pm. I'm going to be on there"... . See look at her mouth...that's what she's saying.

Looks like today will be much like yesterday with even less chance of any rain along the east coast other than maybe a brief spritz before 2pm..and less chance to closer to none further inland by mid-afternoon. Looks like a little pocket of mid-level moisture will be around until mid-afternoon..after that it looks pretty dry with a stabilizing 'coolish' onshore flow off the Atlantic contributing to the 'dilemma' for instability...which should make about 99.9% of the general populace quite pleased. For the foolhearty who like to see some action amongst atmospheric molecules...the fights have been banned until the gates open again..which looks like it will be late Friday.

There is a variety of potential circumstances that could evolve for our chances of rain to increase relatively significantly (although I guess anything above a 5% chance could be considered significant at this point) come late Friday. So for now let's just leave it at that. Might as well enjoy the sunshine and cooler weather (below 90 degrees) for a day or two more and get the outside chores and "honey do" list tackled, because this weekend might not be so favorable unless one likes to mow the lawn in an airboat. Okay, that's stretching it, but you can get the gist.

Enjoy, and watch a good sunrise or sunset. At least we have those to enjoy! If you can't make it out to see a sunrise just watch the video link over on the right hand column where the sunrise picture is..click for the YouTube video.

Freddy no "Nightmare" and No Rain Today: "Reflections"

Fall, Fall Go Away

(pileus often seem to come in pairs)

Looks like fall fell in a harsh way as of Sunday. The first hints of the end of the thunderstorm season are now in full swing with a north north east wind this morning and sporadic moisture pockets aloft providing for various scattered clouds with very limited instability. Looks like this will be the scene for the next two days here in east central Florida. Doesn't mean we're out of the woods quite yet, but for now the immediate coast north of St. Lucie County looks like it will be spared thunderstorms for the next few days with only the most favored inland locations near Lake Okeechobee favored and possibly on the west coast from Sarasota and points south.

There is a chance we'll see some coastal ocean showers during the overnight and early morning hours beginning tomorrow though, but they will be very widely scattered at worst, with the potential of an increase in such activity on Thursday as a low pressure system over Central Cuba begins to morph northward.

Have a great Labor Day!

More of the Same --But As Always --Different?

(reliving last summer)

Synopsis: Looks like the pesky surface low/bubble has actually worked on shore and is now located between St. Augustine and Ormond Beach this morning. Water vapor loop shows a 'dry' slot of air moving into the Florida Big Bend south to the Tampa Bay area moving east about 10-15mph. KSC sounding showing higher precipitable values than yesterday at this same time and we have thin cirrus clouds overhead. Winds aloft are more predominately SW thru the column, but of such light value it holds little weight or bearing for today's weather outcome. The same cap as yesterday morning is also in place; however, the convective temperature is a full 10 degrees lower than yesterday which proves to be a challenge for determining shower initiation timing. Drainage down the peninsula, while yesterday seemed to stop at the north edge of the Big Lake, seems to have made it the whole down to the southern tip of the state. All given, it's almost synonymous with "yesterday" as it's as stable as all get out to start the day. Who cares anyway, it's morning. Elsewhere, a mid-level low is now rotating in place along the north/central coast of Cuba with currently no direct impact on the Space/Nature/Treasure Coasts.

Today: The drier air mentioned above if it reaches the east coast, based on timing, won't arrive until 5pm which will be after convective initiation. In fact, it may aid in moisture convergence along the sea-breeze at just the perfect time in the mid-late afternoon to get things going. Due to the light, albeit somewhat uniform steering currents along with the hint (stressed) of a nudge from impending drier air may nudge precipitation a notch closer to the coast (yesterday it made it as far east as the Banana River in Canaveral and over parts of the Space Center).

It is interesting that some showers and a storm have gone up near Tampa despite the aforementioned 'drier' air shown in water vapor analysis (apparently that drier air is not at all the levels required to suppress shower formation). So all things given:

Today: With less cloud coverage this morning but with very stable air initially, expect that pre-noon rains will be hard to come by, or very isolated in nature if they do form...which could be about anywhere, and given that heating may occur fairly quickly today under such light, moisture laden flow...could see a funnel along the coast (most likely off shore). Sea-breeze initiation will be at or shortly before the text book time of 11-12pm. True storm formation to begin after 2:30pm. In going with persistence today, expect earliest activity to initiate closer to the closed circulation in or near Flagler County then propagate south along the sea-breeze as far as the East Central Coast of the state is concerned that is.

Elsewhere, activity might get a slightly later start today down by the Big Lake, but it assuredly will..particularly along the south shores initially. The Tampa area might be a bit suppressed today yet still, with the morning activity being the only show in town until late when the back edge of the dry slot has passed and they are back in the juice (and other storms have already formed and propagated basically "all over the place in random fashion").

Pinpointing an exact location where heavy rains and dangerous lightning will occur today is a nearly impossible prospect to attempt...so use the noggin' and look at the sky every once in a while. Don't wait for that first thunder to send yourself running for cover either. If those cloud bases are big and black..the first bolt can be one's last. It's fun until it happens to you...KABLAM!!

Very Stable Morning - Small Chance of Rain Later

(after a stormy early evening, the Space Coast was treated to a fiery sunset)

Boy, they don't make it much more stable in the atmosphere at this time of year around here as this morning is. It appears there is a light drainage flow down the peninsula characterized by almost nil flow or very light land breeze on both coasts, with a temperature of nearly 75 degrees in Cape Canaveral which is cool by standards of late (by a mere 3 degrees). Morning Cape sounding has an unbreakable cap strength of 4.0 (very strong) and near calm winds the whole way up. Don't expect this to last all day, but it should be indicative of what the first half of the day will bring.

Additionally to the above mentioned, we have some high clouds in the vicinity, but they appear by poking my head out the door that they are mostly along the immediate coast. In any case, with it being so stable right now I'm having a hard time envisioning coastal showers to form in the late morning...so all in all it looks like it will be a perfect beach day until at least 4pm if not later.

Don't think there will be a sea-breeze collision today between the coasts for a number of reasons:

1) differential heating between land/sea is not nearly as great as the early summer when ocean temperatures are much cooler, hence giving them that extra nudge. Expect any sea-breeze to linger within 10-20 miles of either coast with light and variable winds inland most of the day

2) lack of winds aloft won't aid in frictional drag with the lowest atmospheric levels to steer the winds in any particular direction

Thus, expect a very stagnant and probably uncomfortable day inland, with the coasts feeling some relief by noon time.

There does appear to be a remnant mid-level low pressure 'bubble' off the NE coast of Flagler county that was there yesterday in association with the weak stationary boundary that was over the state. From all appearances at this time though, it appears what was left of the boundary has all but completely vaporized into a mere shadow of what it was before (which was a mere shadow!). Hence, without any upper or mid level triggers expect shower/storm activity to be mainly land mass generated around the lakes, Tampa Bay, and "hot pockets" with any motion to be dictated by probably some healthy outflow boundaries after 6pm if one, or a cluster of small ones, can get going. With that a possibility, boundary collisions could generate more storms although not expecting a broad coverage of them.

Be noted that most of the models are indicating a good chance of showers/storms today, so I kind of went "off the norm" this morning to take a wag at the flip side of the coin. It also doesn't mean it can't rain on your head today. Just consider yourself one of the lucky few who get to experience it today :-).

Climatological Chance of "Wet" Today

(pileus clouds from above the top of a building large rain shower over the Banana River, yesterday. Pileus clouds form where humid, stably stratified air is mechanically displaced vertically ahead of rising convection.)

Not much change from days past today. A little deeper analysis of morning data shows the stationary boundary to be in place from just south of a Brooksville to well north of Ormond Beach line. Looks like some fog developed overnight west of US1 and the low clouds streaming across the early morning sky along the coast are the evidence of such (as well as surface observations). Additionally, the KSC morning sounding came in very stable with a low level cap of 2.0 strength (strong). However, moisture at all levels is still in place with a convective temperature of 86 degrees which should get things going with the normal heating of the day.

Unlike yesterday, do not see any real triggers in place for significant convection to get going early. Do believe that with some heating after sunrise and perhaps a weak sea-breeze developing by 11am that some coastal/intercoastal waterway shower activity will get going as the cap erodes. About the only fly in the ointment is just how earnestly the early stuff will materialize..but if that cap does break in a 'sudden' fashion, with such light winds at all levels and ample moisture we might see a funnel cloud from some of the coastal activity....as I nearly witnessed yesterday with the cloud tops exhibiting their pileus formations and low, flat dark bases.

It appears from water vapor analysis that the bulk of today's activity will be east of a Sarasota to Flagler County line (as was the case yesterday)...with typical Lake Okeechobee activity to be in full swing, particularly around Ft. Pierce on the east coast. Don't know how well the Tampa area will fare today. It wasn't too great there storm wise yesterday, and what did occur / happened there yesterday was due to a definitive triggering mechanism that arrived too early in the day. But given that this is Florida in the late summer, no holds are barred...especially when it's the Tampa area with a light wind regime!

As the day progresses, expect the sea-breezes on both coasts to make it inland..but not too far. Not sure if they'll actually collide which could further put a damper on things intensity wise. If they do collide it will be along the moisture axis describe earlier along the east 1/2 of the state. Regardless, expect the east coast to be overcome with higher clouds by late afternoon as convection that forms down near the Big Lake and inland disperses its high clouds across the region in the decent SW-SSW flow aloft.

In short, watch for late morning, early afternoon big rainshower activity along the east coast with a funnel possible if it can get going...then a lull in the early to mid afternoon with the typical afternoon 'stuff' going all segments of Central and South Florida after mid-afternoon with the greatest concentration along the east 1/3 of the state after 6pm. Activity will generally struggle to make it to the coast east of US1...but stronger cells that form closer to the coast...near I-95 could well penetrate into the immediate coastal communities.

Oh, almost forgot forlorn Erika. I'm writing her off for now. Either she becomes an entity again and moves N-NE away from the area near the Bahamas, or becomes a non-entity that moves close by with little to no impact...(as of THIS writing :-).

Sunny Morning Yielding To Stormy Evening

Departing clouds along the beach access path this morning

Looks like a pocket of upper level energy just moved offshore at sunrise this morning. In its wake is a clearing sky and calm wind. That, in combination with some temporary drying of the atmosphere, should yield to a pretty nice morning across the Space Coast until noon time with a light sea breeze moving in by late morning (with minor exceptions as noted below).

Noon time on: this time frame may yield to some pretty interesting weather. The stationary boundary across Central Florida is still there from roughly an Oak Hill location along the east coast to just north of Tampa Bay and south of Brooksville on the west coast. An upper level pocket of energy moving in off the eastern GOM (Gulf of Mexico) is riding along this boundary and appears to moving in an ENE-NE fashion and rapidly approaching the Florida SW Coast. This 'activity' seems to have latched on to what ever was over W. Cuba as well, and the entire ensemble will take a swipe enmasse across most of the peninsula starting late morning and into the afternoon and evening as it progresses in a general NE fashion during the course of the day.

What does that mean for the Space Coast? The day will start off nice; nicer than the past two days...with big cumulus forming along a weak sea breeze by mid-late morning and possibly a shower over or near the rivers. This should be the course of the day with perhaps a thundershower forming around 1pm and thereafter. It's the 2-3pm time frame when that pocket of energy approaches and steering currents go from light and variable to a little more out of the SW along with an increase in moisture aloft that things get interesting. With increased moisture means an increase chance of rain, and for today, thunderstorms. Just exactly how this energy will evolve and mesh with the stationary boundary and heating of the day will be an interesting course of events from Tampa to Ft. Myers and across the state from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville later in the day. One thing seems to be a given, and that is the east half of the state will have more time for convective instability to mount than the west half of the state...so expect more thundery activity today than yesterday and possible training of rain/thunderstorm cells until past sunset...particularily from Titusville to Daytona Beach where the boundary lies.

What about Erika? Glad you asked. Seems at this point I'm willing to poke my head out of this hole in the ground and take a gander. Looks like Erika will stay weak and possibly just an open wave in the next 12-24 hours...but maintain some form of identity nonetheless. Appears it may make its presence none to Southeast and East Central Florida starting mid-late day Tuesday with increased rain chances and a healthy onshore E wind flow (mostly from pressure gradient winds as it meets the forces of high pressure to our north). The central portion of the state may be in the NE quadrant of whatever is left of the system which could spell a lot of rain for up to 48 hours as it completely washes out over the state. More to come on this potential area of interesting outcomes.

Record Rainfall in Melbourne Yesterday. Today?

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.29 INCHES WAS SET AT MELBOURNE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.81 SET IN 1997.

Can't say that record rainfall fell in Cape Canaveral late yesterday. We had a mere 0.31 inches...although surrounding areas got much more. Seemed this area was in the black hole, as often seems to be the case. Will today result be the same? Maybe.

Not much change from yesterday. Seems the quasi-stationary boundary, if one can even call it that, has made a southward drift since late yesterday and is now located somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa on the west coast, and across Melbourne on the east coast. It will waiver during the day as such boundaries do but in general remain south of Canaveral most of the day. Such motion will be indicative of the very weak low pressure 'bubbles' (nearly undetectable) as they move or almost just form and die along the 'boundary'. Such will be the case for the next two days with some minor differences as follows (below).

Today, expect a day only somewhat like yesterday. The main difference will be more clouds early in the day and slightly cooler temperatures due to the clouds. Convective instability will be decreased as a result, so this leaves the question open-ended as to just exactly how great the rainfall totals can be today. At least during the solid daylight period. Note, it could rain just about anytime today, but for now will leave the heaviest "stuff" to occur from early afternoon and points onward. During the early evening hours such rainfall (thunderstorms) is not as reliant on such factors as it is more coerced by the overall 'picture' of the surrounding atmosphere to get things going. Storm motion will again be close to nil, so whoever gets socked might be in for a healthy dousing of the wet stuff...quite measurable to say the least. Instability is below average, so don't expect storms to be particularily strong in character, but the feisty ones will deliver the ever dangerous and deadly lightning bolts. So beware! But there is a change in the offing.

Tomorrow and Friday, it looks like the mid-upper level trough will do a bit of active carving across the area. The frontal boundary will still lay directly across Central Brevard on the east side and across Tampa Bay on the west side of the state druing this process. Continued broad area of low pressure across the peninsula generally depicts the boundary, but now there will be sufficient steering currents from the WSW to move things along. Exactly how this will pan out as far as precipitation goes will be interesting. Both in amount and in type (plain rain or thunderstorms). I'm opting for a down the road vote right now and seeing a mix of both. Motion should be a good 15 miles an hour from the WSW versus the Nil flow we've had the past two days (and will have today as well). This could mean that specific areas won't get those heavy rainfall totals at first appearances, but 'training', or repeated in-flux of storms over the same area, will be quite the possiblity. Thus, we are not out of the woods quite yet (or for a while as far as that goes).

Yes, many eyes are on the tropics right now on entity Erika. I'm not going to place any bets on motion at this time, but in general I don't feel it will be a strong enough tropical system to ever warrant fear in the eyes of the beholder. But for kicks, it bears watching. It could actually impact the area in the late Sunday-Tuesday time frame in whatever morphed form it has assumed. Please keep attuned to posting by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the local national weather service for details.